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Mar 19, 2024
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my sense is that jerome powell failed the marshmallow test. he ate the marshmallow at the november press conference. he wanted to declare victory on inflation too soon. if he had shown a little self-restraint financial conditions would not have eased and inflation and economic activity would not be re-accelerating as we have now. i think despite their predilection to want to cut, the fed will possibly have to stay higher for longer. it all depends on what the fed does. katie: i have heard people tell me over the past few weeks that the fed wants to cut but they can't yet. why do you think they want to cut? why is that the narrative? scott: jerome powell said it in front of congress. katie: that's true. scott: i take him at his word. david: coming back to trump for a second, your name has come up as maybe playing some role. if you had conversations with the former president his team that would indicate to you where he thinks he wants to go economically? scott: sure. what i will say is i'm not going to repeat private conversations but i think a
my sense is that jerome powell failed the marshmallow test. he ate the marshmallow at the november press conference. he wanted to declare victory on inflation too soon. if he had shown a little self-restraint financial conditions would not have eased and inflation and economic activity would not be re-accelerating as we have now. i think despite their predilection to want to cut, the fed will possibly have to stay higher for longer. it all depends on what the fed does. katie: i have heard...
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Mar 20, 2024
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what tone do you think jerome powell will strike today? >> he is going to come off as similarly dovish. the goal is to start inching toward rate cuts. the goal is to start priming markets for expecting a tapering of qt. we are going to get details about qt and details about what it might take to start rate cuts during the press conference. katie: it is not just the dots. we also have the balance sheet. bloomberg economics economist stuart paul. let's keep this conversation going with santander chief economist stephen stanley joining us. tell us about what your most adjusted to see. we have the actual decision. we have the statement. we have the summary of economic projections. we get the press conference. what are you going to be most paying attention to? >> lots to digest. for me, it is the 2024 media.. -- media dot. the fed was projecting three rate cuts as of december. there is some debate in the markets about whether they will move that down to two. i will lean toward them staying at three. but there is certainly a risk of two. that wi
what tone do you think jerome powell will strike today? >> he is going to come off as similarly dovish. the goal is to start inching toward rate cuts. the goal is to start priming markets for expecting a tapering of qt. we are going to get details about qt and details about what it might take to start rate cuts during the press conference. katie: it is not just the dots. we also have the balance sheet. bloomberg economics economist stuart paul. let's keep this conversation going with...
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Mar 6, 2024
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from fed chair jerome powell on capitol hill can. mike, when we think about how chair powell is going to be addressing congress, we spoke about some of the issues already. what is he coming up against, especially as inflation is still top of mind? michael: well, he's going to come up against criticism of the fed for not moving quickly enough to bring down inflammation and the fed has admitted it was slow on the trigger there. but in his opening remarks, he talks about how the fed is determined to bring in addition to 2% target. sonali: we are already seeing it met by a bid in the short term market here 2 year yield downs a little bit even just yesterday. liz: although like you'll see a lot to the research report nothing but he seemed hawkish enough. he didn't lean more hawkish than he had to me focused on the dual mandate which some show more balanced. saying we are not clear we have enough process to cut yet but he cuts some of the tail risk out of the market by saying again, rates are at their peak and some time later, we'll cut ra
from fed chair jerome powell on capitol hill can. mike, when we think about how chair powell is going to be addressing congress, we spoke about some of the issues already. what is he coming up against, especially as inflation is still top of mind? michael: well, he's going to come up against criticism of the fed for not moving quickly enough to bring down inflammation and the fed has admitted it was slow on the trigger there. but in his opening remarks, he talks about how the fed is determined...
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Mar 4, 2024
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fed chairman jerome powell will deliver his semiannual monthly polisario testimony. it is affected to provide markets more insight on the u.s. central bank's rate hikes policy. you have heard from many fed officials saying they are in no hurry to cut rates. thursday, president biden will deliver his state of the union address. we will have special coverage on bloomberg tv. and the ecb said to hold rates steady as it awaits more evidence that inflation is under control. lots to digest. as get more with sam rhee, chairman and cio of independent wealth manager, endowus. for the moment it is about china. how crucial is it, or has everything been factored in. we saw three weeks of gains for china. sam: as many people have been commentating, it is a huge week for china. there is growing expectations and that is what leaves the market rebounding. whether this is the dead cat bounce or the bottom of the market, and we start seeing this rally have some legs, we will have to wait until be announcements come out. i would err on the side of caution and say i don't think that wil
fed chairman jerome powell will deliver his semiannual monthly polisario testimony. it is affected to provide markets more insight on the u.s. central bank's rate hikes policy. you have heard from many fed officials saying they are in no hurry to cut rates. thursday, president biden will deliver his state of the union address. we will have special coverage on bloomberg tv. and the ecb said to hold rates steady as it awaits more evidence that inflation is under control. lots to digest. as get...
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Mar 21, 2024
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defendant fueled rally after jerome powell says they are still to cut rates this year. awaiting meta-'s ipo. pricing at $34 last night. we'll bring you minute by minute coverage. we mostly see you alan mcknight. how he is allocating around the valley. i am katie greifeld. taking a look at markets right now. a lot of green on the screen behind me. .6%. even more so. currently up by about .9%. something else is happening in the bond.6%. market. they had been meaningfully lower in the overnight session after we got that fed meeting decision yesterday, but moving higher currently. we do have some broking home sales data. let's break it down with mike mckee. mike: some surprising news. we were expecting a kind but instead they rise 9.5%. most of them single-family homes. with mortgage rates coming down just a little, not alive, this is particularly good news. the spring selling season is only just getting underway. maybe the logjam is breaking if people have been waiting long enough to get into the market. katie: we will continue to see if that builds momentum. sticking to t
defendant fueled rally after jerome powell says they are still to cut rates this year. awaiting meta-'s ipo. pricing at $34 last night. we'll bring you minute by minute coverage. we mostly see you alan mcknight. how he is allocating around the valley. i am katie greifeld. taking a look at markets right now. a lot of green on the screen behind me. .6%. even more so. currently up by about .9%. something else is happening in the bond.6%. market. they had been meaningfully lower in the overnight...
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Mar 21, 2024
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inflation expectations also bumped a little bit higher but jerome powell was pretty adamant. he says they are committed to the 2% target. >> it's interesting because the dot plot was super industry but would what jerome powell had to say took the limelight. he said we are still committed to 2% and he downplayed it and didn't put it aside totally but he said we know february inflation was a little hot and didn't increase our confidence that we are getting to 2% but overall, it seemed more of a bump in the road. they are waiting to see the data confirm that. they don't think it changes the overall picture that we are in this disinflationary path to 2%. i think that lifted risky assets because he seems to be saying that we will go by the data. for now, they feel confident, not competent up but pretty confident they are on the right path and hopefully they will be cutting rates sometime this year. i think that's the take away. he got peppered with a lot of questions even on easing financial conditions which he said they still feel like policies being restrictive and slowing the e
inflation expectations also bumped a little bit higher but jerome powell was pretty adamant. he says they are committed to the 2% target. >> it's interesting because the dot plot was super industry but would what jerome powell had to say took the limelight. he said we are still committed to 2% and he downplayed it and didn't put it aside totally but he said we know february inflation was a little hot and didn't increase our confidence that we are getting to 2% but overall, it seemed more...
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Mar 8, 2024
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sonali: jerome powell did get a number of questions on the balance sheet reduction. how do you argue this is not an economy or market that is on life support when the fed balance sheet is still as bloated as it is? tiffany: exactly. our view is the federal reserve can continue to shrink its balance sheet. the one thing i would note is although it has been reducing the size of its asset holdings over the past year or more, it has not actually tightened liquidity conditions as you would expect. we still have very similar amounts of bank reserves in the system and that is because most of the decline is coming out of the fed's reverse repo facility. what the fed has done so far on qt has not quantitatively tightened anything. there is more room to run. it is reasonable for the fed to reduce the pace at which it is letting assets rolloff in terms of prudence and things like that. nevertheless we think they can go for a while and get the balance sheet down further. we think they can continue qt through the end of 2024 if not into 2025. sonali: that is pimco economist tiffa
sonali: jerome powell did get a number of questions on the balance sheet reduction. how do you argue this is not an economy or market that is on life support when the fed balance sheet is still as bloated as it is? tiffany: exactly. our view is the federal reserve can continue to shrink its balance sheet. the one thing i would note is although it has been reducing the size of its asset holdings over the past year or more, it has not actually tightened liquidity conditions as you would expect....
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Mar 7, 2024
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as we wait from testimony from jerome powell on capitol hill let us welcome back michael mckee and liz mccormick. we were talking a little bit earlier about how we have seen a bid back in the bond market. do you think that to some degree this cooling of rates is conflicting with the path and message that jerome powell is trying to send across? michael: i do not think so. what you have is the market reacting to events today in the european union, and the euro area with madame lagarde talking about rate cuts and may be putting more of a date on it that jay powell has done and then also some economic data today that did show that the economy is status quo at this point. we are still 10 to 15 days out from the fed meeting on march 20. and the fed has told us that they will not do anything. what you are really talking about you are talking about markets in the fed is a may meeting which is such a long way away. i do not think we are really trading on what the fed will do on may 1. sonali: how are traders positioning? we talked about this on the long end of the curve. powell got awkward ques
as we wait from testimony from jerome powell on capitol hill let us welcome back michael mckee and liz mccormick. we were talking a little bit earlier about how we have seen a bid back in the bond market. do you think that to some degree this cooling of rates is conflicting with the path and message that jerome powell is trying to send across? michael: i do not think so. what you have is the market reacting to events today in the european union, and the euro area with madame lagarde talking...
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Mar 7, 2024
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jerome powell in testimony to lawmakers saying borrowing costs should come down this year but making clear policymakers are not ready to move yet. >> we believe our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at sometime this year. the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gotten rid of confidence that inflation has moved more strongly toward 2%. haslinda: neel kashkari says he expects at most two rate cuts this year. he said while his base case of two cuts remains, the same from december, he might revise it to one for the mid-march meeting. let's get back to our guest, still with us. 2024 is the year of disinflation, rate cuts, we've gone from seven to three and perhaps one. >> i think the market is reacting to what happened in november and december, looking at six rate cuts, then the data moves and we started getting the market saying we .5 and three at best -- 3.5 and three at best this year. if you loo
jerome powell in testimony to lawmakers saying borrowing costs should come down this year but making clear policymakers are not ready to move yet. >> we believe our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at sometime this year. the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gotten rid of confidence that...
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Mar 21, 2024
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. >> jerome powell filing up equities with the dove's stance. can the rally last? here are the top stories. the dovish fed sending the yen stronger for the first time in eight days. japan's finance minister says he's watching the currency with a high sense of urgency. chinese tech socks -- stocks see gains. doubling share buyback and rising dividend pie by 42%. we have a great lineup of guests . we will focus on the indian economy is morgan stanley's chief indian economist. let's get to markets. i get a sense i'm in the wrong color today. of course, it is an everything rally. avril: it is a fed party. a lot of green on the screen. this fed theme is coming through. take a look at the e.m. asia fx, particularly the korean won. the yen also climbing. helped along by comments and parliament. he is striking a neutral tone, avoiding dovishness. after japan comes back from that holiday, we are seeing stocks are really rallying hard today. the msci asia pacific is hovering at a level we haven't seen in two years. tech is leading the charge. it's all the long not just by th
. >> jerome powell filing up equities with the dove's stance. can the rally last? here are the top stories. the dovish fed sending the yen stronger for the first time in eight days. japan's finance minister says he's watching the currency with a high sense of urgency. chinese tech socks -- stocks see gains. doubling share buyback and rising dividend pie by 42%. we have a great lineup of guests . we will focus on the indian economy is morgan stanley's chief indian economist. let's get to...
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Mar 20, 2024
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what kind of tone do you think jerome powell will take? mike: powell has alternated between being hawkish and dovish at his press conferences and tend to change as the day goes on. we will see if he can retain a neutral outlook this time and keep people from reacting too much to what they think he might've said. katie: a busy man, i'm sure you will be peppering today. let sick a quick look at some of the stocks hitting highs and lows and we kick off with chipotle hitting a high after they hit a stock split. it would be the first in the company's 30 year history and one of the biggest stock split in the history of the new york stock exchange. international paper hitting highs after reporting kkr's andrew silverdale as ceo. meanwhile take a look at the downside, a burberry hitting lows off a lot of the leather luxury names after a steeper than expected kleiman asian sales. the principal asset management chief global strategist joins bloomberg technology next. this is bloomberg. ♪ you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile provid
what kind of tone do you think jerome powell will take? mike: powell has alternated between being hawkish and dovish at his press conferences and tend to change as the day goes on. we will see if he can retain a neutral outlook this time and keep people from reacting too much to what they think he might've said. katie: a busy man, i'm sure you will be peppering today. let sick a quick look at some of the stocks hitting highs and lows and we kick off with chipotle hitting a high after they hit a...
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Mar 5, 2024
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jerome powell's testimony, as well as that nonfarm payroll. in terms of some of the players, china property stocks in particular, china vanke one to watch, currently down 3%. take a look at the broader market as well. apart from chinese insurers warning of debt risk, and china vanke, we're keeping track of that msci index, currently down 0.5%. nio in focus, it is out with earnings after the bell. currently down by 3.5%. asia pac stocks halting a three-day rally, currently down 0.2%, as we await greater clarity from the npc, as well as data out of the u.s. this is how it is looking in terms of benchmarks. the benchmark in hong kong currently down almost 2%, dragged down by tech, the taiex in the opposite direction, higher by 0.7%. that is it from "bloomberg: markets asia." daybreak middle east and africa is next. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-borde
jerome powell's testimony, as well as that nonfarm payroll. in terms of some of the players, china property stocks in particular, china vanke one to watch, currently down 3%. take a look at the broader market as well. apart from chinese insurers warning of debt risk, and china vanke, we're keeping track of that msci index, currently down 0.5%. nio in focus, it is out with earnings after the bell. currently down by 3.5%. asia pac stocks halting a three-day rally, currently down 0.2%, as we await...