>> it is almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. i'm haslinda amin. stocks gain as fed chair jay powell says interest rates will likely fall this year, but tensions between the u.s. and china keeping hong kong and caddies -- equities in check. we discussed tech valuations as the market cap of the nasdaq composite the size of the u.s. economy. and in india, the rbi on a crackdown drive against schedule lenders. dive deeper into what is making the central bank nervous about the financial sector. we've got a great lineup of voices, including j.p. morgan head of economic research, and the ceo of singapore's budget carrier.

in the markets it's about fed and jerome powell saying you know what, rate cuts can wait, but it is appropriate to cut rates this year. pal reiterating what he's said before, but consider whether it's appropriate this year. we also heard from neel kashkari, weighing in and saying maybe he sees two or maybe just one rate cut this year. the msci asia-pacific index up about 3/10 of 1%. we are keeping and i csi 300 index. it is about the mpc. it states and we heard from the pboc governor saying there is still room for rate cuts. at rrr that investors have a wedding four. we also heard that they will make those moves if they need support in the market and we've seen some support in the market already.

in terms of the csi 300 index, in positive territory right now. the yen front and center in the fx space. this office port of government officials saying they support the move to hike rates this year. to our top story, markets focusing on possible dovish moves. before we get to that, we have breaking news out of china. china's trade data just out, january and february exports coming in positive. that's according to cctv. imports at 6.7% year on year in yuan. trade front and center, it's been pretty sluggish. in terms of exports, rising 7.1% year on year, the estimate was 1.9%. there in mind it is exceeding

expectations, the expansion in terms of imports as well as exports. let's put it in perspective with our guest. he spent 13 years at the im in where he headed the china division. first time in our city since the pandemic. >> since the pandemic, i've been doing it over zoom, it's great to be back physically. haslinda: improvement in terms of trade. when we look at the mpc entity messaging, is there any clarity that china is on the right track and able to read -- to meet the 5% target? >> the 5% target is a story of two lows. it probably drops to 4.5% in the second half.

it's not just because of the deficit this year but what was done last year and how much has been carried over. if you remember, back in october, $1 trillion to r&d, half of it was spent, half of it will get carried over. what has been announced, about 3.8% and the carryover, about 0.4%. that additional fiscal deficit coming from the central. i think that will support activity and is already supporting activity. i think what has been missed is the fact that the pboc is finally getting into the act. if i look at the liquidity provisioning done since august of last year, look at the alphabet soup of the different facilities they have and add

them together. now, 5.5% of gdp liquidity already in the economy. i think the policy support will keep growing to about 5.5% in the first half and second half more likely to slow down. on average they might make it to 5% this year. haslinda: trade is looking pretty strong. in fact, gangbusters, beating estimates and huge way. how are you reading into that? >> i would focus more on the impulse -- import side, is domestic demand strong enough? we know that fiscal policy and monetary policy has been biased toward increasing production and employment, etc. but that created a massive gap in production capacity and was happen with consumption, creating a large overhung of -- overhang of inventories that is

weighing down in china. i was surprised that we saw they beat estimates, it bodes well for some recovery in that one area of weakness, which is consumption. haslinda: export also important because china has doubled down on exports. should the rest of the world be concerned if china starts dumping cheap chinese goods in the global economy? >> i think the word dumping is used loosely. if you look at what is happening to export prices in china, this is not new. it's been happening at least since april or may of last year when the export prices have been deflating both in dollar terms as well as r&d terms. that deflation has slowed down but continues. i think we and the rest of the world have benefited massively from the deflation in terms of the normalization post-pandemic, which is probably one of the bigger reasons as to why seen

this very spectacular disinflation in the rest of the world. i think that's a normal way in which you act because you have a significant amount of inventories. that's basically phasing out. if you have these kinds of export growth numbers, i think the capacity will be reduced. i think the deflation will come to an end which is good for china. haslinda: you think the world is underestimating china's economic transition. it's identified new growth areas like ev's, ion batteries, solar panels and it takes time to grow. to get to where it needs to be. is the world under appreciating that? with all the same thing with taiwan, japan and korea. >> definitely in the case of ev, china is on the best path.

ev is not a single success story or china says we can take a technology and be world leaders. i would say ev is the strong story for we are at the same time looking at china, finding it difficult to get around the spillover an impact from the semiconductor technology. i think it's a balance. in some areas, china is progressing, i'm not just seeing with semiconductors but it's spilling over into robotics and ai. probably both of them are happening and at this point in time, ev is a shining story out of china. haslinda: we just had a story

about the u.s. putting pressure on the likes of south korea and japan to tamp down further on china's access to semiconductors and its technology. how might this play out on china's economy and how to china come back from that? >> we've had china coming back from the pandemic to about 3% or 4% the next two years. a driver from that has been the spillover from these frustrations because they have a much broader impact than just the semiconductors. in addition to that it's also the languishing of private-sector confidence in china because of the arbitrary regulatory changes that took place in 2020 and 2021. i think both are in play, i think the impact has been seen and the decline in most analysts minds, how are they viewing that

through the technology resurgence? i don't know. we are a tripping a lot through the impact of the technology restrictions. haslinda: ok, hang tight, your sticking around. china's foreign minister has told -- has said that ties with the have improved. even so, he said the u.s. has not for phil promises and is using tactics to suppress china. -- fulfilled promises and is not using -- and is using tactics to suppress china. >> the pressure is coming not from the u.s. but from china. the u.s. will eventually harm itself. we urge the u.s. to be clear eyed about the trend of the times. you china's develop objectively and rationally and engage in exchanges pragmatically and to act to fulfill its commitments. we hope it will work with china

to bring the relationship back to stable, sound and sustainable development. haslinda: speaking of ties, shares of these companies tumbled after a bill was advanced was a that may ban chinese biotech funds and others from federal context. one of them down by oma 17%. -- almost 17%. jd.com bucking the trend, up about 7%, posting the biggest gain since 2022 after a better-than-expected revenue. 3.6% increase. still ahead, we will speak with the ceo of budget carrier scoot about post-pandemic recovery, plus why indian markets are

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haslinda: welcome back. jerome powell in testimony to lawmakers saying borrowing costs should come down this year but making clear policymakers are

not ready to move yet. >> we believe our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at sometime this year. the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gotten rid of confidence that inflation has moved more strongly toward 2%. haslinda: neel kashkari says he expects at most two rate cuts this year. he said while his base case of two cuts remains, the same from december, he might revise it to one for the mid-march meeting. let's get back to our guest, still with us. 2024 is the year of disinflation, rate cuts, we've gone from seven to three and perhaps one. >> i think the market is

reacting to what happened in november and december, looking at six rate cuts, then the data moves and we started getting the market saying we .5 and three at best -- 3.5 and three at best this year. if you look at chair powell's testimony, which was basically what he had said, and what he signaled in december has been a consistent story. he does not require and the u.s. does not need growth to bring down disinflation, they don't need inflation to be 2% to start cutting, but it should be broadly in that direction. more important, a reiteration that it's not looking for better data to start cutting, he just wants more of the same data

before he is competent enough to start cutting. i think we will see rate cuts starting in june or around that time. i think we will get at least 100 points of base cuts this year, going up to 1100 of the beginning of next year and 200 basis points in the 12 month starting from june. i don't think the dataflow has changed much. it can change but i don't think, these small changes in inflation are that surprising and really changing dynamics. haslinda: ems and asia have been waiting to cut for a while and are waiting for the fed. what does it mean for ems? >> i think ems and asia are a stumbling block. if you look at domestic conditions, almost all of emerging asia, where inflation is going, they are more or less

into the inflation targets of the respective central banks. the clear concern is they have a very little margin over the fed's rate because i don't really raise rates like latin america or central europe. i think the financial ability concern is holding them back start cutting policy rates and they will have to see the fed not only cut rates but give a reasonable amount of reassurance that the rate cuts -- and this is the reason for a strong easing cycle -- to cut rates. if you look at the emergency or stealth tightening most central banks and asia did back in september when u.s. rates went up and interbank rates had moved almost 50 basis points above policy rates, all of that, even before the rate cutting cycle started, have all been pared back. i think we are ready to move in that direction, just waiting to bridge the gap. haslinda: india has been in outperformer, 8% growth and rbi

says still possible for the coming year. what correlation do you see in terms of trade in the market? >> in the case of india, both the third and fourth quarter gdp numbers, there was a lot of noise in it as much as signal. because of deflation, etc. setting that aside, rather than going into numbers per se, india has done spectacularly well. i think you're seeing that reflected in equity prices, obviously. in addition to that, india will be in the indices, and i can't remember how many other indices there are, so this looks like a good path for india. we should not get bogged down by the numbers. we should be looking at what are the drivers of growth in india? unfortunately there it is still public info structure spending

and some export. the growth hasn't broadened out. there's a lot of excess capacity. based on that i think there is still a lot of room for india to continue to grow and keeping economic stability intact. haslinda: rbi is clamping down on baking india. it wasn't too long ago we were trying to clean up india's shadow banking. >> yes, the cleanup is taking place and then the pandemic hits. post-pandemic, we are seeing a revival in growth number and it's exactly the argument i just made. macro economic stability is as much a benefit for all of these positives on the growth front and rbi is clearly and rightly concerned with the fact there are so much amount of expansion in collateralized lending. haslinda: you have to come back soon. thank you so much for your insight.

plenty more ahead, we discuss whether tech stock valuations are looking frothy. don't miss that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

haslinda: welcome back. here is a chart putting the ai fueled rally in tech into perspective. the $27.5 million market cap of tech stocks on the nasdaq is now equal to u.s. gdp. what a run. that raises questions about whether tech valuations are stretched amid the ai boom. for more, let's bring in our analyst. rip roaring rally. you got to think -- it's overstretched. >> it is but when you look at let's say the magnificent seven basket, you're starting to see a divergence in valuation. this is fueled by nvidia,

microsoft, but when you look at apple and alphabet, you see the valuation is still compressed compared to their historical valuation. in the end you have to ask yourself as an investor, what is the peak earnings for this cycle? for companies like nvidia and microsoft that have had a great run but clearly there is a cyclical aspect to semiconductor chips. we know that. despite the insatiable demand for videos chip. that's where i think you will -- four nvidia's chip. i think that's where you will see the difference. haslinda: when you look a stocks, i'm saying it's looking really frothy, it has become a victim of its own success. mandeep: in time a company at the scale of nvidia, 50 billion in revenue now, and expected to

grow, that's impressive. the scale that nvidia and microsoft are at, it's impressive. that's why everyone feels like and go into their valuation. but we know from history these kind of growth rates are not sustainable for two to five years. that's where there will be tapering of growth. it's very different when a company is going 50% versus 15%. i think that's the part investors need to figure out, when that growth will taper should -- taper. they will not be paying a 50 times earnings multiple no matter how solid it is. that's why valuations matter. right now i growth rate of 50%. haslinda: alphabet comes in to play, missteps in ai, how will that impact the company? mandeep: when i look at alphabets valuation being below

nvidia, it makes me wonder what is priced in already and for good reason. alphabet has not executed very well. they are the company that should've been the poster child for ai given they have the search background and being the monopoly in search. the market is at risk of being disrupted but in the end i think they are catching up with their models. yes, it did not generate the right kind of images but ai gets better as a feedback is involved. i have no doubt that with the kind of talent and cap ask alphabet has -- capx alphabet has, they will be able to catch up. right now was priced in is probably that they will keep losing chair forever and that's not the case. haslinda: what about dubai and meta?

mandeep: meta has benefited from ai to the point they changed completely and it translated to topline growth. they are executing well but the valuations are rich. haslinda: all right, valuations, where they go from here? our senior technology analyst here with me. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back. china market shares heading to

lunch. the csi 300 index giving up gains for the day. currently in negative territory. that's despite comments of support from policymakers. trade numbers out. exports rising more than 7%, beating estimates in a big way. the estimate is for about 2% growth. a reflection of the economy. now we are seeing some improvement in terms of those import numbers. u.s. returns rising 7% year on year. china talked about loving down -- doubling down on its exports. that's raising questions about how chinese exports may be dumped into the global market. as china goes to break, the nikkei 225 coming back from

lunch. front and center is the yen, breaching that 150 level. of course that's on the back of wages rising the most since june. also some government officials saying that they expect a boj bait -- rate this year. in terms of the yen, 148 71 is the level we are at right now. pivoting to the airline space. singapore airlines looking to win market share in the post covid recovery. it expects to take delivery of the first of nine new jets next month. let's get more from the ceo. good to have you with us. how much clarity do you have in terms of how well you will do in terms of 2024? >> first of all, thank you for having me. i think we've done very well in 2023 and we are confident that

we will continue to do well. at the same time, i want to mention the aircraft. that will give us a lot of opportunities to fly to uncharted territories. that will give us a lot of opportunity to continue. haslinda: what are these uncharted territories? what routes will you be flying? >> we announced two days ago thailand. malaysia. we are also looking at another two to five destinations. haslinda: in terms of taking delivery of your aircraft, how many more are you looking at for the rest of the year? how about the other aircraft that you may be having an ion? >> first of all, we've mentioned

that we have at least nine new ones. five will be delivered this year. we will be taking delivery through april. the remaining will be delivered in 2025. at the same time, additional boeing. plus the airbus. haslinda: lastly, what does that mean in terms of capacity for the rest of the year and also in 2025? what are you looking at? >> our focus is on 2024. we have five joining us this year. we've announced two new destinations. we will need a couple of months in the second half of the year. 2025, it's too early at that point. we will be updating every year

going forward. haslinda: in terms of the chinese market, how much of a recovery have you seen? are you planning more routs, flights to meet demand? >> china will continue to be an important market compared to pre-covid capacity. we are now at about 80% of our flight capacity into china. right now, we are flying 80 times per week. so we are back to about 80%. with the relaxation of the 30 day visa, demand out of china coming into the rest of the world. we are confident that we will be able to get back to 100% of pre-covid capacity. haslinda: can you quantify the spike you are talking about? >> from the data, we will start

from nine of february. one day, we see a spike. haslinda: is there a reason for you to add cities and capacities for china? >> our focus on china is that we would consolidate our operations in the cities we are currently flying through. it's a frequency we will continue to step up, subject to the demand. haslinda: lastly, i'm wondering. in terms of opportunities for growth, what might that be for the rest of the year? might you deploy or redeploy your aircraft to other destinations? >> well, 2024. we are planning a capacity that's higher than 2023.

a few more destinations. we are planning to engage with the airbus group. the boeing 737, more than 300 seats per aircraft. that will give capacity to many of the popular destinations that we fly through. we are flying a lot more into bangkok. haslinda: in terms of cost, fuel is the biggest cost for carriers. what assumptions are you making about field prices and how are you hedging? >> feel prices is a function of the supply and demand in the market. we will not speculate. we jointly do this. it's a concept that we don't have control over. it's a concern for us.

haslinda: so given the goals that you have for the year and 2025, what do you see as the biggest risk for the company? >> we are operating in a new environment post-covid. customers have changed. the operating environment has also changed. supply chain challenges. as an ecosystem, we are working closely with our partners to make sure that we can still be able to meet our overall goals in terms of growing the organization. haslinda: thank you for your time today. now here is some global stories we are following. the u.s. is said to be pressing allies to further tighten restrictions on china's access to semiconductor technology. the bided administrations push is aimed at plugging holes and export controls. sources say the effort is strong resistance in japan and the

netherlands where the u.s. wants them to stop servicing their equipment, already owned by chinese clients. the chinese president has called for patriots in taiwan and abroad to mobilize against pro-independence efforts on the island. in a meeting tied to the national people's congress, he spoke to a mainland political group focused on taiwan. asked them for an international effort to oppose taiwanese independence and involve the peaceful reunification of china. a missile strike on a commercial ship in the gulf of aden has resulted in the first confirmed civilian death since militants began attacking. u.s. officials say two people were killed and six injured a bold -- aboard the bulk carrier. they claimed responsibility for the strike, describing the carrier as a u.s. ship, which its owner and the bided ministration have denied. coming up, the outlook on indian markets and why they think stocks are slightly overbought.

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what are the drivers of growth in india? they are, it is still public infrastructure spending and services exports. the growth house and brought about. there is still a lot of excess capacity. based on that, there is still a lot of room for india to continue to grow and was keeping macroeconomic stability intact. haslinda: there's a lot of growth he says. that was jp morgan's e.m. research had. speaking to us earlier. india starts trading in under five minutes. sensex index futures up by 2/10 of 1%. gains pretty much across the board. the governor saying he expects growth of about 8% which is faster than the governments own estimate. take a look at where we are in terms of the financial stocks. they are in positive territory. gm financial up 7/10 of 1%. bear in mind, it slumped about 20% on the back of the r.b.i.

clampdown on shadow lenders. including an equity bonds ipo as well as gold financing. up by 2.8%. as we lead up to the open. bear in mind as well, it got dumped by about 20%. let's delve deeper, bring in our asia equities reporter. regulators in india seem to be cracking down on a number of companies. what's the worry here? what are we reading into this action? >> hi. i must say. while the euphoria, there's caution also building in some parts of the markets becoming overly absurd brent. we've seen india as well as markets coordinating on some of the recent actions. the latest being the ban on gm financial, which has been barred

from going against shares. there was a similar action earlier this week. stopped from giving loans against gold. while these actions have been company specific, there's a sign that they are keeping risks in check. even though it may come at the cost of certain aspects of market -- slowing down a bit. that includes the booming market for initial public offerings. haslinda: keeping risk in check, keeping exuberance in check as well. is there a sense these actions will continue? are there other areas that regulators could be looking at? >> yes. market regulators have entered that data, certain issues which

they are observing. they've been vocal about the challenges as a regulator they are facing that include a number of applications, some of the ipo's in india have seemed. certain merchant bankers emerging into these practices. no primary capital markets and india have seen more than 50 listings this year, while the fight is smaller. in terms of the comparison, this number is bigger than bigger markets such as hong kong. we've seen a number of ipo groupings more than doubling in their debut. while it would be unfair to say that these deals are speculative, the regulator has identified areas where there is growing worry. going by the actions, it sounds

like they will be continuing to look into this area. haslinda: there are governments issues. thank you so much for that. let's get more on markets with the cofounder of woodhouse capital advisors which manages investments for multi family offices. get to have you with us. first off, your take on the r.b.i. click down -- crackdown on those shadow lenders? >> good morning. thanks for having me. this was coming, you know. this euphoria is one of the risks that we see in the market. there's a lot of optimism. overconfidence right now. we see customers investing blindly in the markets, chasing growth. that has been fueled by nonbanking financial institutions who are lending

money for this kind of speculation. so you know, this is a good move i think by them. haslinda: do you think that it will impact systemic growth in the non-lending business in india? >> not really. i think they are just trying to curtail the short-term froth in the market. nonbanking financial institutions are a small part of their business. there's a lot more they are doing. they are just supporting the economy. that should continue. that should continue to add value. haslinda: of course when it comes to india, it's about growth in excess of 8%. how are your clients and advisors capitalizing on that growth? >> we are family office and an investment bank. we also do m&a. so we understand the consolidation that's happening in the markets. being a high-growth economy,

markets are going to do well. we've already had a decade and a half. that's going to continue. however, there is short-term volatility because of elections coming up, because of the euphoria we are seeing in the market. so you know, our focus as a family office is on capital conservation. however, our theme continues to be a dynamic asset allocation. wherever there is any opportunity and a client's portfolio to invest in the equity markets, we advise them. managing large portfolios gives us flexibility of investing larger amounts in private equity investments, which our m&a bank helps us value well. that's all we are partaking. haslinda: are your wealthy clients doing anything differently now compared to 12, 24 months ago?

>> no. consistency is what we focus on. you know, that's how you ensure high-growth. you ensure that the lists are managed well. you know, we continue with the asset allocation model. wherever we see an opportunity for growth, we invested in equities. however, we keep a strong check on the kind of investments that we are doing. you know, we look at certain sectors like health care pharmaceuticals, stocks. we look at any businesses that will get supported by ai and good opportunities to invest. that's what we look at for our clients. haslinda: how about in terms of startups? we know you have a platform linking wealthy clients to startups. how much appetite is there? >> we started something called

the woodhouse investment network. we launched two events. we actually got startup founders . we got them to come and present their businesses to a very select few investors. that was a good start to the business. that is something we are doing on an ongoing basis now. we regularly have startup founders who come to us with their investment ideas which we cannot pick up on because the size of our transactions are larger. if we feel it's an interesting business, we take it to our family office or our set of investors. we help evaluate them, help them to the valuation. understand the risks and also negotiate their positions in that particular investment. haslinda: has interest appetite been affected? what are you seeing in terms of the pipeline of ipo's coming to

the market in india? >> well, like my predecessor just spoke about, it's been huge. about 56 ipo's that have hit the market in the last 12 months. a lot of them are just being pushed. less than 100 billion when they come into list. we don't really speculate. we don't really look at any ipo that's hitting the market unless we feel very strongly about the kind of business -- it's a sustainable come along growth business. we only partake in that kind of business. well, certain businesses have suffered in the last year or so. for regulatory reasons. like i said, it's a sustainable business. it's a good business to invest in. haslinda: let's talk about should -- risks. geopolitical risks are rising.

i'm wondering how your investors are looking at these risks? >> the indian markets have been fairly strong in spite of all the risks. at any point of time, there are 13 wars happening across the world. we see our markets doing well. we've been resilient. while we do have an idea of what's happening across the world in various areas, whether it's in the southeast part of the asian countries or middle east, we feel the indian markets have withstood a lot of shocks. we continue to grow well. as long as we are not taking short-term speculative calls and are in it for the long term and we understand the risk of the companies that are getting invested in, we should be fine. investors should be fine. haslinda: is there reason to be concerned about hot money? some are saying that perhaps we are beginning to see a bubble

forming in india. there is so much froth. consolidation is bound to happen. the bubble is going to burst within the next 12 months. >> i don't think so. a little bit of the bubble burst. we just spoke about jm financial. the rest would be finding the short-term investments. and we are a little worried about that as of now. the short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. but that's probably the hard money we are talking about. however, there's a huge amount of wealth that investors in india have managed to create. that money is coming into the market as well as a lot of fiis which are looking at the indian markets because of the kind of growth that they see here. of course, there's a lot of fbi flowing into the country as well. all of that is fueling the growth. i don't think that's hot money. haslinda: thank you so much for that.

the cofounder of woodhouse capital advisors. let's do a check on indian markets. been trading for about seven minutes. pretty flat as we speak. send sex currently 1/10 of 1% higher. the focus is on financials. that has to do with a clampdown on shadow lenders borrowing the likes of jm financial as well. equity bond, ipo gold. we are seeing some reprieve for gm financial which slumped 20% yesterday. also, i i fl up by more than 6%. it got smacked by about 20% as well. indian regulators stepping up. crank down on shadow lending in india. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

haslinda: welcome back. let's take a look at the movers in asia. biologics front and center. the u.s. senate and panel advances its bill banning some of those deals. those stocks are getting smacked on the back of that. down by more than 15%. we are keeping an eye on jd.com. it came out with numbers. profitability is front and center. it's also announced a 3 billion-dollar buyback. on the back of that, jd.com

tracking up by more than 6%. see smc also currently up by about 4%. ai frenzy pushing that stock higher. in terms of the fx space, the ringgit is front and center. it's currently up by four tens of 1%. we are set to see them keep rates steady with an eye on the ring gets slide. it's been among one of the worst performers in asia this year. the ecb also front and center. stay tuned in the coming hours for a live coverage of the ecb rate decision and press conference with christine lagarde. that's coming up at the times listed on your screen. 9:50 pm if you are in hong kong. that's it from bloomberg markets asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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