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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  March 21, 2024 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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>> here are the top stories that we are following. defendant fueled rally after jerome powell says they are still to cut rates this year. awaiting meta-'s ipo. pricing at $34 last night. we'll bring you minute by minute coverage. we mostly see you alan mcknight. how he is allocating around the valley.
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i am katie greifeld. taking a look at markets right now. a lot of green on the screen behind me. .6%. even more so. currently up by about .9%. something else is happening in the bond.6%. market. they had been meaningfully lower in the overnight session after we got that fed meeting decision yesterday, but moving higher currently. we do have some broking home sales data. let's break it down with mike mckee. mike: some surprising news. we were expecting a kind but instead they rise 9.5%.
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most of them single-family homes. with mortgage rates coming down just a little, not alive, this is particularly good news. the spring selling season is only just getting underway. maybe the logjam is breaking if people have been waiting long enough to get into the market. katie: we will continue to see if that builds momentum. sticking to the outlook, you could take that as dovish, but before the show started, it is a little bit more hawkish towards the hood.
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mike: when you look more closely at it, you can see it is december and march forecast. pretty much everybody moved up and the median state the same. folks that were at the median went higher. we might see them cut back at the june meeting. katie: i know you have been. -- i know you have been busy. let's broaden out the conversation markets. amy is head of derivatives strategy. great to have you with me. let's talk about the post bed valley that we are seeing. take a look at the sector level.
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what is your initial take away from what we heard yesterday? >> the under the surface dynamics were interesting. a lot of that is low-quality, so the low-quality basket rally and then on top of that, you had a wide expansion of. it is something that is relatively healthy. katie: it feels like a weight value had started to outperform tech, which was an interesting complexion, but now it just feels like it is coming back in and overwhelming manner. >> what is happening is that there are two themes going on right now. the ai story could be a secular theme that continues.
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you have something on top of that. it is inherently powerful in and of itself that it will continue regardless. katie: we talked about the magnificent seven as a block, but you have started to see some description. then you have the likes of apple and tesla have been following the past couple months. what is interesting is that even within the magnificent seven, you are powering ahead. you can make the argument that you are a little diversified. >> description has actually increased and a lot of it has to do with the underperforming that we have seen in tesla and apple.
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what you have on top of that in terms of option sentiment is this powerful bid not only in the mag seven names that really kicked off the rally but the whole semi conductor sphere with the adjacent names to this story . that continues with micron and you see it with all the names as investors hunt for the next positive cycle that will break the upside. katie: we will get into that after the break, but i want to talk about volatility because we are talking about this big, beautiful rally and it is not like the magnificent seven is rallying at one. still moving higher. take a look at all of it and we are below 13 right now. below some of the averages that we have seen over the past decade or so. there is a debate about what is
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actually causing that. jp morgan on one side saying there are etf suppressing volatility and then on the others, saying it is this benign backdrop that we have been existing in. i am curious about the debate. >> i would say this is the hottest topic. i want to say two things about this. the reason most fundamental investors are having this to be is a question of, is this going to be concerning way? we know that volatility is low and suppressed, but does it bring this? i would say the answer is no. it is a different environment. often the question that people are implicitly asking is, is
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this something to worry about? no. it is not the same environment. matt said, in terms of what is functionally causing this, i think it is a little bit of both. there are supply demand dynamics, but as we heard, we are in an environment where we get this disinflation and things are just doing ok and humming along. i think it is a little bit of both, but i do not think there is the concern that we saw leading into the blowups. katie: a little bit of both, but we are not heading into an armageddon. we will see what is moving the markets.
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micron is having a great day. >> this is very important for ai. we are hearing that the company may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ai boom. that is affecting share prices. we demand. now executives are very optimistic about the future. they are saying 2024 will be very strong and 2025 may be one of the record years. we are seeing that in the price. katie: tech is really strong right now but they are living up to the hype. if you thought micron was having
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a great day, tell me about this. >> we also have lululemon and nike reporting today. lately, this is one of the best reactions. we saw stronger-than-expected earnings growth. we also saw management saying, this is well above what they expected. you can imagine the company reported the highest eps in 12 years. they declared a special dividend. they saw major recovery in the u.s. and asia. there are some concerns about currency frustrations, but analysts are quite optimistic. katie: we have to balance it out. >> they are struggling with
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numerous sales this quarter. we are talking about some of the fine dining brands. the company is now down year to date. it was underperforming the s&p, but it is getting dragged down. this see -- they are doing better compared to competition. the question is whether that can help them. we are seeing low income consumers struggling. we are also seeing the weather in january impacting traffic and restaurants. capital grille has also been struggling. the company announced the new stock repurchase program with no expiration, so we have yet to see whether this will lift the company.
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katie: thank you so much. coming up, read it -- reddit is set to hit the market. all the latest, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. katie: the darling of the ipo market is supposed to begin trading today. after shares priced at the top of the range. join us with a breakdown is ed ludlow.
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we do know that it priced at the upper range. >> an hour raising. if you want more numbers on the shares outstanding, that is a valuation of $5.4 billion. you take into account restricted stock and options, evaluation of $6.4 billion. i make this kind of the 570 and the biggest ipo's, but includes stacks. katie: it is kind of nice. we had it in the form of labs, a little bit smaller, but pretty similar. >> similar in the terms of
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dollars raised size. trading above where it priced its ipo. there is a lot of anticipation that but it will see something similar. bloomberg had reported before the confirmation that they were aiming for the upper end of that range, so any minute, we could get an indication of how that will go. katie: you will be speaking to the coo later today. what is on the top of the list? >> i want to understand this new business that they have. reddit has over 7 million daily users, but what is unique about them is that many of those users only use reddit. they -- their behavior is unique. they only had -- they already have a deal with google. how much data are you going to sell?
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who are you going to sell it to? they only started making meaningful revenue gains on the advertisement business. i think a lot of the hype is on that potential. katie: stay with bloomberg as we follow all the latest developments on the ipo. jennifer yen wong will join bloomberg technology next hour at 11:30 a.m. eastern. amy silverman is over at the capital markets. i want to talk about kim kardashian and paris hilton. paris hilton was the hot topic in the early to's and kim kardashian was her friend. you mentioned nvidia is this market's paris hilton.
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>> you have to write what you know, so if you are my age, you remember when paris hilton was the og and to me, that is nvidia. the question investors are asking is, who are the paris hilton adjacent names that become the kim kardashian's of the future? you see that in the skewed demand where the demand outweighs. in some ways it has moved away from nvidia and interestingly, also into crypto based names like robin hood. it is interesting because investors are saying, where is the next investment cycle? there is the idea of momentum. katie: which companies are in
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the kim kardashian basket? are there any names that particularly you stand out? >> it was among them. a lot of them had near-term catalyst. as i mentioned, also crypto based names where there is that meme element to it that harkens back to amc and gamestop. katie: perez and nvidia would stay hot for a long time. take a look at how people are positioned around nvidia. is there anything priced in terms of that -- of them losing that share? >> no.
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it is just not nearly at the peak levels that we saw back to last summer. the idea that anyone is considering any hedging does not exist. it is completely absent. if you are an investor who has participated in this much upside, you would think that there is the idea of protecting some gains and that is completely absent with anything relating to ai. katie: let's go down the list. supercomputers really coming out of nowhere. these names that had not been on the radar in the same way that these other names are. >> it is very fascinating to me.
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look at them in terms of and performance. this is often a different market cap, but the first early footprints that you got was this idea that the started outweighing put demand. i know it just joined the s&p, but you actually had a lot of value. the problem is it is starting to impact by benchmark as more of a value proxy investor. i thought that was super interesting and terms of how people start thinking about their benchmarks. katie: i believe there was one beautiful know it just joined t, day, but it was also in the small-cap edge mark. a contradiction, and end of itself.
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we are talking about tech, primarily, but what is going on outside of big tech? my mind wanders to energy, which you do not hear talked about too much. >> i agree. i think the conversation always ends up fixated, but energy has been in outperformer. when i look back at the idea that it has all but left the building, there are still continued reasons for concern. there are geopolitical tail risks out there. there is always the idea of an unknown unknown. it is doing it through the energy market. it could really to the israel/mouse word that is ongoing and raised to think about geopolitical risks. either the supply or demand by takes some sort of hate.
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those out of the money call options are big, which makes these structures very high payout. katie: i loved the celebrity talk. we do not do that much. we will get a look at the companies making the most social buzz, up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ready to cut several jobs. london bank is in the middle of a push to cut costs and boost profits. they are expected to take place in the coming months. target announcing that it will double bonuses for retail employees. an extra 2 billion dollars in operating income. finally we have starbucks and some hot water. a group of residents have filed a lawsuit against the coffee chain, claiming it discriminates against lactose intolerant customers because it charges more for nondairy milk. they voted against a proposal that could have set the stage for the company to lower prices for plant-based milk. starbucks said the price for nondairy milk depends on a mix of considerations. you can follow all of the latest company buzz on your bloomberg terminal. coming up, a cio's view of the
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katie: fed chair jerome powell said multiple times yesterday that the u.s. economy continues to perform well. let's get the perspective from the regional banks. we are joined now by allenby night, alan mcknight cio. great to have you with me. let's start with the dot plot. no change to expected rate cuts, still three penciled in for 2023. it was interesting that that no change came alongside a bump up in expected inflation and growth. how are you reading that? alan: i would take is that it is an extrapolation of what we saw at the end of last year as we saw growth come in better than expected in q4 2023. the numbers are supportive of that.
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on the inflation front i think they are knowledge and it continues to be more sticky than they would like, and it is coming down. the trend is right, but not as quickly as they would have hoped, not enough to shift their view. katie: want to talk about the neutral rate. it was another thing that changed. and it comes to the fed's median fed funds rate that was pumped up. prior it was 2.5%. if we are heading into that higher for longer environment i know that is a subject of debate. how does that change how companies actually operate in this economy? alan: i think it reinforces that the economy is still very strong, but that the fed is in knowledge and that they be inflation will be slightly higher than what they anticipated over the short to intermediate term. over time from a corporate perspective when you look at where the cost of capital is, it is still reasonable in terms of getting business done. when you look at what we are
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going to hear as we get into the q1 earnings season, as you look at over the course of this year we think the cost of capital is at a level, when you think about the neutral rate and pricing capital off of that, that is reasonable from a corporate perspective. katie: we do have some breaking news, and that is that u.s. justice department is suing apple and an antitrust case over the iphone. bloomberg news had reported that that lawsuit could come as soon as thursday. now we have the confirmation. let's read that one more time. the u.s. justice department, suing apple over the iphone. you take a look at the reaction in apple shares and they are moving lower, currently down about 2.2%, and accelerating. we are going to continue to follow that story and bring you more details as we have them. let's get back to this market and economy. it is interesting to see how the market is receiving this. of course, green on the screen
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both from big tech to some of the other names in that index as well. feels like a bit of an everything rally. is that sustainable? alan: our thought has been since the end of last year that we need to see a broadening of the rally. we had such an incredible uptick at the end of the year. it was all assets up all the time. what we have seen over the first part of this year is we are finally seeing a broadening. the other 493 stocks that have lagged compared to the magnificent seven are picking up a little bit of steam. the reality is over the course of this year we are probably going to see more volatility. we are going to start inching toward the election. because of that it is probably going to be choppy as it relates to returns. but nevertheless, as we talked about earlier, things are still pretty good and our belief is that as we get into earnings season we will hear that reinforced from corporate executives. katie: let's talk about that more. catalyst, what is fueling this
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market. you write in your notes that moving from a fed-driven rally to a more economic and earnings-based rally. that is interesting and exciting to me, because it feels like for so long it has been the macro narrative that has been fueling everything. alan: that is exactly right. yesterday as a portrait of that, where the market did not respond. it was a shrug to the fmo c meeting -- fomc meeting. last are so many market disciplines had a do coney in view of the economy and the belief the fed would have to cut rates at a significant pace just to be able to keep the economy afloat. yet the economy continue to be strong, and that disparity in views, the expectation versus reality, drove the market rally last year from an fomc cut perspective. as we sit here today investors are starting to look at, what are earnings, growth is still good, and supportive of the groep -- katie: of the
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valuations we have. let's talk about how you are thinking about how you will the portfolio around some of these fears. the market at all-time highs or very how are you thinking about stocks in relation to what is going on in the fixed income market? alan: we have been big advocates for maintaining your weights to equities throughout this rally and even coming into 2023 last year, where people were a bit more circumspect about maintaining those allocations. within equities we have been interested, although we have not made a shift yet, in small and mid-cap. does asset classes have underperformed. we are hopefully we may see an opportunity. to get into those names at a better evaluation point. from equities to fixed income we still think bonds hold an important part of a portfolio. this year it has been more challenging as rates have picked up a little bit. we have seen the 10 year move up by 40 basis points. that has been harder on fixed
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income returns, but we still think on an absolute basis, given where rates are, bond investors are being rewarded after having so many years of a punitive stance by the fed in terms of low to zero bound in rates. we still think that bonds are really showing an opportune time to invest, albeit it is dicey as we wait for those rate cuts. katie: really appreciate your time this morning. great conversation on the heels of that fed decision. our thanks to alan mcknight, the cio of alan mcknight. it's keep talking about central banks right now. today the swiss national bank became the first bank in the group of 10 to cut rates this cycle. we had thomas jordan speaking to bloomberg television earlier today. >> look at our u.s. inflation forecast. it is much lower than the one we published in december. inflationary pressure in switzerland declined. they give us the possibility to lower interest rates today.
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>> do you think you are on the vanguard now? are you leading the developed world in rate cuts? >> we are a small country and we are not leading the world. we are looking at our situation, our inflation forecast. we have to adjust our monetary policy in a way we have the appropriate monetary conditions in order to ensure price stability in switzerland. >> the franc felt an eight-month low. how much of that was intended? >> you have the risk that the exchange rate moves at the same time. we had a situation where they swiss franc appreciated last year. in nominal terms, but also real terms. that led to the situation that you had tighter monetary conditions. that helped us a lot with respect to inflation. now the inflationary outlook is much better. they gave us the possibility to adjust the monetary policy today. >> you just said you will look
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at -- you will look at new data and making a new decision in june. do you think we will see more rate cuts this year? >> you make no forward guidance in that respect. if our inflation forecast tells you something about the inflationary risk in switzerland , and whether the risks are on the upside or downside, at the moment it is balanced. you will see what the newest data will bring us in june, and then we make our new decision at that time. katie: that was swiss national bank president thomas jordan speaking to bloomberg television earlier today. let's take a look at these market moves. after the fed and s&p decisions simone foxman joins us now. >> there has been a pretty it -- a pretty immediate reaction. first off, we are watching the dollar gain, despite falling yesterday after that fed news. the swissie moving lower in
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response to that decision to cut now down about 1.4% against the u.s. dollar. but it has been a big day for news from central banks overall. while the bank of england decided to keep its rates on hold, we did see two of the most ardent supporters of rate hikes say they are not really on board any longer. and of course the question becomes, who is next? is it the ecb to come is that the fed? if we flip the board we will see that the enthusiasm in the s&p 500 is continuing, partly on the back of strong data on existing home sales. partly on the micron and semi conductor story. micron coming out with better-than-expected revenue outlook, saying it plans to boost capital spending into fiscal year 2025. that is helping semi conductors across the board. we are looking at the stock, up just over 3%. every name in this index is higher today. we are waiting for reddit's ipo,
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pricing at $34 a share yesterday. does this mean the start of more ipo's coming this year? we will wait and see. i'm waiting to see as well who rings the opening bell. we had snoo, which was fun. katie: we are awaiting headlines and the start of reddit trading. simone foxman, thank you so much. let's circle back to some breaking news as it pertains to apple. this breaking just a few minutes ago, that the u.s. justice department, suing apple and an antitrust case over the iphone. joining us is ed ludlow. what is the basis of this lawsuit? ed: the accusation from the doj and 16 different states is that apple has violated antitrust laws by having dominance, or outsized influence over the distribution of apps. by extension, those policies prevent consumers from having a
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choice of moving away from all -- from an iowa's-based handset. it is confirming something bloomberg reported last night, almost to every detail. in this session we are now down 2.9%, and those declines continue to accelerate. it is the third time the doj has gone after apple in the last decade or so. they have looked at other issues like the pricing of e-books, for example. it follows the supreme court case, or court case around the battle with epic. those stock declines obviously having an impact as we had 3% at the index level, of apple being the biggest drag on the s&p 500. katie: shares down about 10% for the year, so the bad year just gets worse here. mention some of the other antitrust concerns apple has faced. we also had the european union earlier this month fining apple
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for shutting out its rival music services on the iphone. it feels like we are talking about something that is going to continue to haunt apple. ed: apple now down more than 3% in the session. at $2 billion fine, the logic of it was apple gives the consumer no choice. if you want spotify, who are the main complaint tends, you can only get the subscription and pay through it -- pay for through the iowa system. at the european union wanted to see was the ability to go on a website, on a different handset or laptop, and to sign up or pay for it outside of the ios ecosystem, therefore allowing for competitive pricing. in other words, apple would not allow app developers to steer consumers toward a better deal. this antitrust lawsuit is similar, in the sense that it looks at the distribution of apps and how policies keep a user contained within the iowa system. the stock now down 2.8%. a morning. katie: what a morning.
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thank you, ed ludlow. coming up, softening demand for ev's. you will talk about why americans are thinking twice when it comes to electric vehicles and what the government could do about it. brian deese joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ billy's not just running a small
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street we daily. today we are looking at the slowing up take of electric vehicles in the u.s.. david westin spoke with brian deese, former white house national economic council director, about the trend. brian: i think those headlines
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would make you more concerned that you should be that the demise of electric vehicles is greatly exaggerated. let's start with the numbers. in 2023 there were about one point 4 million electric vehicles sold in the united states. that was almost 10% of overall sales. that was up 50% from the year before. the first couple months of this year ev's, sales, are up 15% to 20%. so the rate of growth is slowing, but i think that is actually reasonably what you would expect. this is a market that, as it matures and becomes a larger share of overall vehicle sales, expecting year on year 50% growth rates was never realistic. i think the question is, where will this growth trajectory lead out? and also, when will the appetite for these but up against consumer concerns and consumer
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adoption? i don't think we are there yet, so a rate of growth that is 20% year-over-year would be pretty good for a lot of industries. you're certainly seeing a slowing compared to the rate of pickup in 2022 and 2023. david: i'm from flint, michigan. my family came out of the automotive industry. i lived through the 1980's, where automakers fell behind the japanese. i do think kia is doing well and tesla is doing well. is there a pop -- a possible repeat of what we saw? brian: i think there is a risk. listen to what the leadership of ford and gm and stellantis are saying, they recognize they are behind. that this is fundamentally a technology play. electric vehicles, it is a fundamental shift in technology. it is not just an incremental shift in vehicle technology. and they are behind. tesla, hyundai, kia are ahead.
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you are seeing gm and ford invest a lot in saying, need to catch up, and we need to catch up quickly. ford's ceo has been blunt about this, saying we need to remake this company. we need to do things differently in terms of how we organize ourselves, to drive innovation, to actually catch up and catch up quickly in a growing global market as well. so, i am hopeful that what we will see is that kind of commitment actually manifests in the marketplace, and we are seeing those companies increase their sales sequentially as well. but i think that is always a risk, right? we are going to have to stay ahead and it is a dynamic market. david: what about the government? there are subsidies that promote ev purchases, but does the government need to remain for a period of time in order to make it work?
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brian: the thing the government needs to do is backstop an electric vehicle charging infrastructure. if you look at the cost-effectiveness of public investment to actually reduce emissions across time there is probably no higher bang for buck investment that a public -- and a public investment in infrastructure. makes sense. who is going to build out the backbone of chargers to address range anxiety and give people a sense that this will be as easy as owning an internal combustion vehicle? the good news is that government is backing out in a significant way. that was part of the bipartisan infrastructure bill be passed in 2021. that money is now hitting the streets and we are starting to see a significant buildout of that infrastructure. we are going to need to make sure that stays on track and that the experience, the charging experience, it is not just that there are charges there, but that the experience is easy, so consumers feel as if this is something they can you're comfortable with.
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david: we can talk about electric vehicles without talking about china and byd. it is becoming a factor globally. we just had former president trump talk about the possibility of manufacturing in mexico, and hundred percent tariffs. how should the government handle that challenge? the byd automotive's are at a much lower price point. brian: i think they are not well-position for the u.s. consumer. when you step back, the challenge we have with china right now is quite significant, and we need to have a strategy to address that. and part of what is happening is, china has got very significant imbalances in its own economy and it has to make difficult decisions about whether it is going to double down on a strategy that over-subsidizes and often in inappropriate or illegal ways subsidizes its manufacturing base at the expense of other economies worldwide.
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and that overcapacity issue is an issue for the u.s. economy, but also an issue for the european economy. it was interesting, this week we saw brazil raise the prospect of anti-dumping duties against china because they are facing these pressures as well. i do think that chinese model of just pushing manufacturing above all else, including above its own balanced domestic growth, is not a tenable long-term model. we in the united states need a strategy to succeed on our own. part of that is making an -- making a commitment to invest in our own industrial capacity. katie: that was david westin speaking with ryan dees, former white house national economic council director. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katie: we are still awaiting
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reddit's first trade. shares of the social media darling priced at the top end of its marketed range at $34 each. bailey lipschultz is here with the latest, still waiting for some action. >> still waiting for some indication. typically the way this goes is, morgan stanley is meeting with the company and their designated market maker, trying to get a sense of where they should put that first indication, for where it could open, and then signal -- signal to the market whether that is going to be up and down. all eyes, though, on reddit. again, pricing at $34. they marketed it from $31 to $34. there were some questions about whether this deal could get out at the top end of the range. the question is, can they follow through on some of the momentum checkup can this be a potential turning point in the ipo market, if and how many eyes are all on
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the company checkup still unprofitable, still trying to work out some of that ai flavor coming in the wake of -- the big question is, can this draw out companies on the sideline? can this continue to give returns to investors who bought at $34 checkup remains to be seen. $6.4 billion valuation. if you talk to mandeep singh, undervalued. he thinks it could be worth closer to $10 billion. the question is, can they deliver on ai excitement and deliver a much-needed win and what has been a slow churn as it relates to ipo's? katie: a lot of big questions resting on reddit's shoulders. stay close. you want to turn quickly to apple because we are awaiting a department of justice news conference momentarily. that afternoon as the doj is suing apple and an antitrust case. apple shares are currently down
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over 3%. we are going to continue to follow that story on bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg technology," with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: i'm caroline hyde at bloomberg's headquarters in new york. ed: and i'm ed ludlow in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." caroline: we have an exclusive interview with the ceo of micron after the company boosted its outlook on ai growth. ed: we push ahead to reddit's ipo and sit down with reddit

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