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Mar 4, 2024
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james cited jay powell. what can help the rally? >> i think one of the things that all the market would agree on is the rally is fueled by artificial intelligence implemented in technology that is real and profits are real. one of the things that the market will realize is although the boogeyman of jay powell raising rates can kill the rally, but the reason for powell raising rates is almost nonexistent now. there is no recession. there is no high inflation in sight. inflation is on the way down. chairman powell reassured us of that. one thing to watch out for is the timing and size of the rate cuts. one of the things the market underestimated is the interest rates may level off with the pro pr productivity is at a higher rate. >> while you talk about productivity, you sent us a chart. it compare s. pc revolution and the dot-com bubble. you see the pc revolution on the left and the a.i. on the right. what is the most important part of the comparicomparison? >> we should realize the pc revolution did is boost profits in the 1990s. it
james cited jay powell. what can help the rally? >> i think one of the things that all the market would agree on is the rally is fueled by artificial intelligence implemented in technology that is real and profits are real. one of the things that the market will realize is although the boogeyman of jay powell raising rates can kill the rally, but the reason for powell raising rates is almost nonexistent now. there is no recession. there is no high inflation in sight. inflation is on the...
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Mar 8, 2024
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jay powell on the hill. jobs report and state of the union address. a lot for investors to consider. also the s&p hitting a new record. what do you see happening today? what is your "wex" word of the day? >> my word of the day is indifferent. lots of chatter all over cnbc and other news networks about the state of the union. i don't think the market is moving based on the state of the union address. it was a spirited address. i don't think we will see any permanent movement around the election until closer to november. >> indifferent? i wasn't expecting that one. not worried about it either way. >> i think there are other headlines on the docket for today. jobs report. we have been talking about that all morning. it is moving the market today over the state of the union. >> right now, you are looking at what moves you want to make going into march. we have guidance from jay powell. the cuts are coming, but it is not clear when. how are you moving portfolios? what are you looking at right now? what considerations do you have? >> i think we can look at
jay powell on the hill. jobs report and state of the union address. a lot for investors to consider. also the s&p hitting a new record. what do you see happening today? what is your "wex" word of the day? >> my word of the day is indifferent. lots of chatter all over cnbc and other news networks about the state of the union. i don't think the market is moving based on the state of the union address. it was a spirited address. i don't think we will see any permanent movement...
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jay powell. no, this guy is the worst. so the notion he can pull this off, looks like everyone is starting to become a believer and it is not just main street, folks. take a look at this. these are professional newsletter writers. this is the bullishness. this is rocketing high. at a level typically associated with the market coming down. these are the experts. they get paid a lot of money on their newsletters. they're extremely bullish. retail sentiment investors, 51% bullish, that is extraordinarily high. i will say this, i know the wall street loves to the diss the retail investors they have been spot on last couple years more so than the pros. everyone on the same page. that kind of makes us a little bit nervous. i want to say one thing about the retail investor and i want you to pay attention to this. we always wonder where is the buying going to come from? three years ago, 3 trillion-dollars in margin this is how much money they borrow to buy more stock. the more they borrow at some point y
jay powell. no, this guy is the worst. so the notion he can pull this off, looks like everyone is starting to become a believer and it is not just main street, folks. take a look at this. these are professional newsletter writers. this is the bullishness. this is rocketing high. at a level typically associated with the market coming down. these are the experts. they get paid a lot of money on their newsletters. they're extremely bullish. retail sentiment investors, 51% bullish, that is...
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Mar 7, 2024
03/24
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stocks mixed in asia after fed chair jay powell said he still expects u.s. interest rates to fall this year. let's bring in former bloomberg's mliv team. what will the takeaway be from the fed meeting later this month, what did you take from what we heard from jay powell? >> good morning. i think that the fed unleashed a lot of spirits on the markets. when they did a dovish dot plot indicating three rate cuts in 2024. since then, the incoming data has shown the economy is doing well with the cumulative great heights -- rate hikes we have seen. the labor market is still going strong. the disinflationary narrative that we saw has stalled for now. so there is hardly any incentive for the fed to greenlight those three rate cuts that they signaled again when they meet in march. i think that they will take back one of the rate cuts that they had penciled in. that will leave us with two great cuts. that ties into what the cash carrier has said recently. i do think there is a hawkish out that we should expect from the fed this month. tom: that's really interesting.
stocks mixed in asia after fed chair jay powell said he still expects u.s. interest rates to fall this year. let's bring in former bloomberg's mliv team. what will the takeaway be from the fed meeting later this month, what did you take from what we heard from jay powell? >> good morning. i think that the fed unleashed a lot of spirits on the markets. when they did a dovish dot plot indicating three rate cuts in 2024. since then, the incoming data has shown the economy is doing well with...
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Mar 12, 2024
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what the next meeting what will we hear from jay powell? it's all about timing. tom: bloomberg's jill, thank you, indeed. we talk about fiscal stimulus we have to think about the budget plans. a budget proposal would deliver more services, tax breaks and price controls funded through taxes on the wealthy. what is standing out to you? >> how you get the ballooning deficit under control, the biden administration is $1.6 trillion per year, addressing the deficit. 1.6 trillion over the decade. bidens approaches to tax corporations. corporations, anyone getting a lot of revenue including european corporations that get revenue from the united states. trying to stem the hemorrhaging. and a lot of pushback from the gop. the only big major change was an increase in defense spending, a smaller increase than some around the world. the kind of support he wants to give the lower middle class will not be helpful. at the end of the day you will remember the big selloff, a lot was centered around the fiscal deficit. if you can't get that under control the world suffers. tom: i t
what the next meeting what will we hear from jay powell? it's all about timing. tom: bloomberg's jill, thank you, indeed. we talk about fiscal stimulus we have to think about the budget plans. a budget proposal would deliver more services, tax breaks and price controls funded through taxes on the wealthy. what is standing out to you? >> how you get the ballooning deficit under control, the biden administration is $1.6 trillion per year, addressing the deficit. 1.6 trillion over the...
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Mar 6, 2024
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something else we have to talk about, jay powell and the hill you laughed right now. a lot of your clients have called you about your expectations what are you expecting to hear from jay powell? in your mind do you expect them to deviate at all from what he said at the fomc meeting or what we heard from fed officials? >> he's trying to strike more of a dovish tone. we're on record for that being a mistake. i think the fed has completely mischaracterized how low interest or how reduced interest rate-sensitive the economy is and the need for rate cuts inflation is going to come in stronger i think he's going to signal the rate cuts, but the economy is closing the window for it. the bond market is going to be it's been disappointing. it's going to continue to be disappointed they may be able to squeeze off one or two, but the economy is going to close that window there's an election cycle. >> you think he's going to turn more dovish? we've heard wait and see now you say when it comes to the hill, he gets a little more dovish >> i think he 's in the wait and see. he's got
something else we have to talk about, jay powell and the hill you laughed right now. a lot of your clients have called you about your expectations what are you expecting to hear from jay powell? in your mind do you expect them to deviate at all from what he said at the fomc meeting or what we heard from fed officials? >> he's trying to strike more of a dovish tone. we're on record for that being a mistake. i think the fed has completely mischaracterized how low interest or how reduced...
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Mar 20, 2024
03/24
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that is the question for jay powell. but markets are trying to put this strong economy together with where the fed is and see if they line up. for the moment it looks like they do but of course we have to wait and see what the chair says. lisa: do you think that he will come out and say i'm sorry, i was wrong and maybe financial conditions are loosening a little bit too much? >> anything is possible the generally one doesn't hear that from fed officials. the question is, are financial conditions loosening enough or too much at this point? the economy is stronger than people anticipates that there is a logical action of whether the fed funds rate is tight enough at this point. and whether they think they need to do more if the economy stays this strong or whether it is just a question of keeping it where it is for longer. that is a question for powell. the one other thing we might look for here is whether they changed the long run fed funds, the neutral rate. has that moved up, it is it now higher than it was? it has been
that is the question for jay powell. but markets are trying to put this strong economy together with where the fed is and see if they line up. for the moment it looks like they do but of course we have to wait and see what the chair says. lisa: do you think that he will come out and say i'm sorry, i was wrong and maybe financial conditions are loosening a little bit too much? >> anything is possible the generally one doesn't hear that from fed officials. the question is, are financial...
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Mar 20, 2024
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we're watching for signal from jay powell and company. >>> still in the early stages, what nvidia is telling jim cramer on the back of the compy's new chips. >>> and the faa setting off a recent wave of safety issues. what the airplane giant has to do. >>> and a stock split. >>> it's wednesday, march 20th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ >>> good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." thank you so much for being here with us. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead. we're going to get a check of the markets with the u.s. futures getting set for another day of the markets. take a look at the futures. in the red across the board. looks like the dow would open 15 points higher. slightly under pressure. it ended extremely vol a title yesterday. the dow seeing its best day in nearly a month. let's get a check of the bonds and the big fed rate decision later today. taking a look right now, we're seeing the benchmark coming in at 4.27. we're going to talk much more about expectations coming up. we also look at the oil market continuing its boun
we're watching for signal from jay powell and company. >>> still in the early stages, what nvidia is telling jim cramer on the back of the compy's new chips. >>> and the faa setting off a recent wave of safety issues. what the airplane giant has to do. >>> and a stock split. >>> it's wednesday, march 20th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ >>> good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." thank...
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Mar 19, 2024
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we will hear from jay powell later today. he is just as dovish as he was when he went to capitol hill. it looks like we're on track for the three cuts. how do you advise your clients? >> this is the position that we are positioned for here. we expect 100 to 125 basis points of rate cuts this year. we think that is a situation where we expect the market to continue to rally and for the leadership to broaden. more t importantly, we expect the b barbell situation. we will continue rates to go lower. the back up in rates would reverse. we see small caps and other sicyclicals in the market. from the secular perspective, that is the issue with the banks and continued healthy growth of the economy. the loan books would do well. >> thank you for staying for you used. we were hearing vance check his mic while you were talking. vance, before were expecting six cuts. now we're down to three. how important is it that we get these three cuts and if we do get themas expected, how do you advise your clients? >> powell said he was dial back.
we will hear from jay powell later today. he is just as dovish as he was when he went to capitol hill. it looks like we're on track for the three cuts. how do you advise your clients? >> this is the position that we are positioned for here. we expect 100 to 125 basis points of rate cuts this year. we think that is a situation where we expect the market to continue to rally and for the leadership to broaden. more t importantly, we expect the b barbell situation. we will continue rates to...
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Mar 21, 2024
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we think about jay powell promising to be volcker 2.0. i have to be honest he feels more like burns. the reason burns is burns he blamed congress, he cannot do the right thing because congress kept browbeating him. do you think there is some sort of pressure? we heard from elizabeth warren, bernie sanders and maybe pressure from the white house on jay powell as well? >> we say on the podcast all the time, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the space. particularly fed chairman, they see any sort of stress they jump. a year ago in ma when svb headline came out, all of sudden opened up the bank lending program. that told the market they're quick to react in response to anything that is relatively negative. he is not paul volcker. paul volcker was willing to with stand it. people are saying how well jay powell is threing the needle. by a six month time period he missed the whole transitory thing when inflation was obviously not transitory. he got us to where we are right now. not ready to pat him on the back. he has a tough job pa
we think about jay powell promising to be volcker 2.0. i have to be honest he feels more like burns. the reason burns is burns he blamed congress, he cannot do the right thing because congress kept browbeating him. do you think there is some sort of pressure? we heard from elizabeth warren, bernie sanders and maybe pressure from the white house on jay powell as well? >> we say on the podcast all the time, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the space. particularly fed chairman,...
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Mar 8, 2024
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that's the message jay powell said in coppngress. we will not go back to where we were, but we are not goining to stay where we are. >> we would not call yesterday's testimony a pivot, would we? >> no, no. jay powell has been saying the same thing for a long time which is look to the horizon. rates will be lower at some time in the future. look to the next fed meeting. probably not. this is a consistent message. it is a good message for equity markets and it is a good message for companies and a good message for home buyers and people who are considering big ticket consumer durable purchases. rates may not be where you want them today, but they will be there tomorrow. if you want to buy that car, you can buy it or refinance it in a year or buy that house and refinance it in a year. more importantly, if you are a company, you want to build that new factory, start the project now knowing you can refinance it a year from now at a lower rate and that's an incentive to move now. that's an incentive to keep the economy going. for corporate
that's the message jay powell said in coppngress. we will not go back to where we were, but we are not goining to stay where we are. >> we would not call yesterday's testimony a pivot, would we? >> no, no. jay powell has been saying the same thing for a long time which is look to the horizon. rates will be lower at some time in the future. look to the next fed meeting. probably not. this is a consistent message. it is a good message for equity markets and it is a good message for...
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Mar 18, 2024
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what we are going to hear from jay powell signaling around rate cuts. . we are seeing changing expectations. june had been seen most likely until a couple days ago. that is getting priced out as are the number of cuts we can expect for 2024. in the intraday session, it was the focus on tech. we mentioned the news around alphabet with the iphone in the headlights. what i am tracking closely today is nvidia. so much of the rally has been predicated on the success of nvidia. the demand for its ai chip. now the successor to that coming out at the successor event. we will have more on that ahead this out. haidi: let's go back to the highly anticipated boj decision in the next few hours. stephen engle is with us live outside the central bank building in tokyo. this is a potentially monumental day for the bank of japan. >> absolutely. have been at bloomberg 20 plus years and this is probably the most significant change at the boj in one fell swoop in those 20 years. we have had inflation persistent and we are seeing a lift off perhaps of rates later today when t
what we are going to hear from jay powell signaling around rate cuts. . we are seeing changing expectations. june had been seen most likely until a couple days ago. that is getting priced out as are the number of cuts we can expect for 2024. in the intraday session, it was the focus on tech. we mentioned the news around alphabet with the iphone in the headlights. what i am tracking closely today is nvidia. so much of the rally has been predicated on the success of nvidia. the demand for its ai...
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Mar 21, 2024
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." >>> jay powell and the fed maintain the commitment to the rate cuts. >>> the rally rippling through the markets. japan hits an all-time high. >>> equity in the ipo markets as reddit gets set for the first trade which followed a rocket ship of a debut. >>> stellar quarter for micron has the chip sector surging ahead of the open. >>> possible pressure for apple and anti-trust allegations. it's thursday, march 21st, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. >>> good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." thank you for being here with us. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead and the check of the u.s. stock futures with the dow, s&p and nasdaq all coming off record closing highs and looking to push deeper into the green this morning. the futures market is strong showing for all three. the nasdaq is opening up .75% higher. you see the dow looking like it would open up more than 100 points higher. we are paying attention to small caps with the russell indicating gains. you have to see small caps rising 2% with super micro in the red today. and80 s&p 500
." >>> jay powell and the fed maintain the commitment to the rate cuts. >>> the rally rippling through the markets. japan hits an all-time high. >>> equity in the ipo markets as reddit gets set for the first trade which followed a rocket ship of a debut. >>> stellar quarter for micron has the chip sector surging ahead of the open. >>> possible pressure for apple and anti-trust allegations. it's thursday, march 21st, 2024. you're watching...
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Mar 18, 2024
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if jay powell says this is absolutely going to move the opposite direction and keep us higher for longer. stocks are going to take a hit. they just aren't necessarily going to execute that right now. i thought that was perfect. >> equities on the s&p. positive by 0.8% on the s&p 500. in the bond market yields just aggressively high through last week. still 430 on the 10 year. coming up this hour, monica descends on where she thinks stocks have to run. isaac bolt and ski on tariffs for chinese ev's. in the former fed economist claudia looking ahead to wednesdays bankrate -- fed rate decision. the stock market hitting ahead of the decision. monica saying we need to acknowledge the strong start to the year with the s&p 500 not only a few percent away from the 2024 price target but also arguing for more selectivity and being thoughtful if you're still sitting on too much cash. we believe stocks will make new highs. monica joins us in new york. good morning to you. new highs in this equity market. talk to me about how you put cash to work? monica: the challenge has been certainty. the fed is
if jay powell says this is absolutely going to move the opposite direction and keep us higher for longer. stocks are going to take a hit. they just aren't necessarily going to execute that right now. i thought that was perfect. >> equities on the s&p. positive by 0.8% on the s&p 500. in the bond market yields just aggressively high through last week. still 430 on the 10 year. coming up this hour, monica descends on where she thinks stocks have to run. isaac bolt and ski on tariffs...
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Mar 18, 2024
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let me say, i think jay powell is doing an excellent job as the chair of the fed. he is keeping the process apolitical. that's fundamental, i think, to the way a central bank has to operate. >> dennis lockhart, thank you for getting up early for us today. i appreciate that. >> thank you. >>> let's check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao who joins us. silvana. >> contessa, good morning. the biden administration is calling on the senate to move quickly on the bill to force tiktok's parent company to sell the social media company. the call by national security adviser john kirby comes after the senate cleared with overwhelming support. senate majority leader chuck schumer said he is in no rush on the bill the and congress must as a second package of funding bills by friday's deadline. >>> we are watching shares of boeing this morning. down about 1% in the pre-market. now, this is plane problems and the faa and united airlines say they will each investigate the incidents with the united planes which lost a panel on friday. ground crews discovered the plan
let me say, i think jay powell is doing an excellent job as the chair of the fed. he is keeping the process apolitical. that's fundamental, i think, to the way a central bank has to operate. >> dennis lockhart, thank you for getting up early for us today. i appreciate that. >> thank you. >>> let's check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao who joins us. silvana. >> contessa, good morning. the biden administration is calling on the senate to move quickly on...
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charles: before i let you go, jay powell confident about a soft landing although we know there will not be six rate cuts. is this a good thing? i know you talked about in december these rate cuts being good for small caps so on that notion, small caps are making a stealth rally, should you wait for the cuts to happen or should we start nibbling there? >> small caps are totally tied to the economy. so your bet has to be the fed is going to cut rates and we're not going to have a significant slow down in the economy, right? small cap, mid-cap stocks are very sensitive to changes in economic demand. so the hope here is, that you know, for the russell 2000 to continue that rally, that, you have to have fairly strong economic growth continue. if you do, that really doesn't auger for a lot of rate cuts for the fed because of the inflationary pressure. i think this will be a real balancing act for the fed and i would be a little bit cautious. i wouldn't overweight small cap here. it is okay to be in it. i wouldn't overweight it here because of that risk. charles: i got you. lance, good stuff a
charles: before i let you go, jay powell confident about a soft landing although we know there will not be six rate cuts. is this a good thing? i know you talked about in december these rate cuts being good for small caps so on that notion, small caps are making a stealth rally, should you wait for the cuts to happen or should we start nibbling there? >> small caps are totally tied to the economy. so your bet has to be the fed is going to cut rates and we're not going to have a...
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Mar 5, 2024
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looking at the 10-year yield, off by seven basis points as we anticipate jay powell's speech. a look at what is happening in the asset class we need to talk about today. this happened just after 9:00 a.m., but we are looking at a 66 back to it at the moment. we had that psychological level. already we have seen the market capitalization eclipsed that of 2021 because there is more big going in -- more bitcoin in supply. we are currently up 9.9% the course of what has been a mega run throughout 2024. 2023, lower, in the doldrums. but we are back at that level we had in november 2021. ed, what are you watching? caroline: there is a lot -- ed: there is a lot in the news flow hitting technology shares. tesla, a fire near its berlin plant has halted production. investigators are investigating whether arson was the cause. data on china is a softer, showing that sales of tesla not as strong. that stock under pressure. two other stories. we are going to head to d.c.. bloomberg reporting that u.s. officials are going to block amd selling a made for china lower-spec gpu. it is something
looking at the 10-year yield, off by seven basis points as we anticipate jay powell's speech. a look at what is happening in the asset class we need to talk about today. this happened just after 9:00 a.m., but we are looking at a 66 back to it at the moment. we had that psychological level. already we have seen the market capitalization eclipsed that of 2021 because there is more big going in -- more bitcoin in supply. we are currently up 9.9% the course of what has been a mega run throughout...
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Mar 7, 2024
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jay powell saying we will make a lot of changes to this after a lot of lobbying. jonathan: day one was in front of the house financial services committee. date two was in front of the senate committee. the senator from massachusetts, elizabeth warren, i imagine elizabeth warren has follow-up questions about yesterday. lisa: i imagine she will not be particularly happy when people are looking for the potential of too big to fail. jp morgan surging when we still see this turmoil in community bank ongoing. has it become unduly punitive for these banks and how you create a scenario where there is not a gravitational force every which way at a time the smaller banks are facing a host of headwinds different from the big ones. jonathan: all-time high for jp morgan monday. record tuesday, record wednesday. nycb. new york community bank come at the lows down 47%. at the high we were up 37%. we were facing existential risk. we have a new ceo. this time we have received an equity investment from former treasury secretary steve mnuchin. lisa: this is amazing. the fluctuations
jay powell saying we will make a lot of changes to this after a lot of lobbying. jonathan: day one was in front of the house financial services committee. date two was in front of the senate committee. the senator from massachusetts, elizabeth warren, i imagine elizabeth warren has follow-up questions about yesterday. lisa: i imagine she will not be particularly happy when people are looking for the potential of too big to fail. jp morgan surging when we still see this turmoil in community bank...
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Mar 12, 2024
03/24
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charles: of course coming into all of this, jay powell vowed he would not be arthur burns. he would be volcker 2.0. if he cuts too early, and mess this is up, forget it. one thing you've been emphasizing, you say, hey, forget about these overweight bets on themes. instead focus, drill down on value. one name you like is deere. you say it is best in class. you like it because of the cycle we're in and also strong fundamentals. tell us more. >> this is a really cyclical company and we're entering a low point in that cycle and if you extract the graph back on deere even further you will see it tends to outperform the s&p 500 over long periods of time. we like the low point of the cycle. we like the bad sentiment around deere today for an entry point into a name we believe is kind of entering that next leg. what i mean by that next leg, they have done really interesting work. the management team are visionaries and when you think about even the application of robotics they have ready and available for weed killing, and look at the investment they made into starlink, that change
charles: of course coming into all of this, jay powell vowed he would not be arthur burns. he would be volcker 2.0. if he cuts too early, and mess this is up, forget it. one thing you've been emphasizing, you say, hey, forget about these overweight bets on themes. instead focus, drill down on value. one name you like is deere. you say it is best in class. you like it because of the cycle we're in and also strong fundamentals. tell us more. >> this is a really cyclical company and we're...
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Mar 14, 2024
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annmarie: jay powell continue says at some point this year we will be cutting. does that change to later this year? does the timeline just get pushed back? jay: i think it does. the inflation rate is trending lower. it is not coming down as much as people would like it to be but what is happening is the inflation rate continues to come down in the fed remaining on hold, the real fed funds rate is passively going higher and that is acting as a passive tightening on the overall economy. in some sense they need to be cutting rates. maybe not in may or june or july, but they need to be cutting rates later this year or you will have a passive tightening of monetary policy which could potentially slow things a lot more than people are expecting now. jonathan: appreciate your views this morning. jay bryson of wells fargo. it is part of the job if you're in that seat. you have to make a call on when the fed will cut. june feels meaningless to me. the correct answer has been later. much later than you thought. it was march and then it was may and then it was june. if you
annmarie: jay powell continue says at some point this year we will be cutting. does that change to later this year? does the timeline just get pushed back? jay: i think it does. the inflation rate is trending lower. it is not coming down as much as people would like it to be but what is happening is the inflation rate continues to come down in the fed remaining on hold, the real fed funds rate is passively going higher and that is acting as a passive tightening on the overall economy. in some...
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Mar 18, 2024
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jay powell said i will not be arthur burns. i which not cut prematurely. >> yes. charles: therefore the insinuation i would rather stay high for too long than to cut prematurely. >> even if they cut-rates three times for sole of 75 basis points, as their dot plot suggests interest rates will be at 17-year high. interest rates will be higher for longer. hopefully not as high as they are. that will push a overleveraged u.s. consumer into default situations. that will slow down the economy further and we start talking about recessions. >> still given their druthers, two equal sets of risk, cutting too soon, remaining too high, they will stick with remaining too high. >> until at least july. they have to see two consecutive quarters of slowdown before getting interest rates. i still think we will get three interest rate cuts this year. charles: we look at some of your investment ideas. everyone is kind of familiar with microsoft. lily is big time with the weight-loss drug. what is rythym. >> this is the another area to play the obesity drug euphoria. $2.4 billion micr
jay powell said i will not be arthur burns. i which not cut prematurely. >> yes. charles: therefore the insinuation i would rather stay high for too long than to cut prematurely. >> even if they cut-rates three times for sole of 75 basis points, as their dot plot suggests interest rates will be at 17-year high. interest rates will be higher for longer. hopefully not as high as they are. that will push a overleveraged u.s. consumer into default situations. that will slow down the...
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Mar 15, 2024
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from jay powell to goldman sachs. a mixedsis and which key player is bullish on the year ahead? it is friday, march 15th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for holfrank hol holland. the dow stamping the three-day winning streak yesterday and right now the dow is implied higher by 34. s&p by 6 and the nasdaq higher by one point right now. we are preparing to wrap up the trading week and all three are holding on to thin gains right now. all up .50% to .1%. bitcoin prices are testing new highs this week, but pulling back with the levels at $67,091. that is down 3.25%. one stock weighing on sentiment is adobe. the weaker forecast is overshadowing an otherwise strong quarter as investments in artificial intelligence continue to payoff. the ceo praised the adobe advances in a.i. just on cnbc yesterday. >> i think the research that exis exists is incredible. not just openai, but adobeas well. i look at the text-to-video in what it relates with the models and embedding that with premium pro. >> it is ou
from jay powell to goldman sachs. a mixedsis and which key player is bullish on the year ahead? it is friday, march 15th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for holfrank hol holland. the dow stamping the three-day winning streak yesterday and right now the dow is implied higher by 34. s&p by 6 and the nasdaq higher by one point right now. we are preparing to wrap up the trading...
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Mar 20, 2024
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>> can't avoid watching for the fed, what the fed does what jay powell says. watching from a high perch. yesterday 18th s&p 500 knew all-time high of this calendar year. that's basically a record pace of all-time highs. go back decades. the most record high s&p done in a calendar year around 72. we got 18 and about a quarter. that basically annualized to just about best ever. can't obviously counter on us continuing to click thus way. i point out we've flattened outalities in the s&p the last weeks. churn underneath the surface. much of technology has actually sort of lost a little bit of momentum, but enough things are working we are clicking higher. you minced the bond market. i like to look at government bonds in price terms getting a sense where buyers might want to come in, where they have in the past. this is the government, u.s. treasury etf of all maturities average maturity nets out to about seven, eight years. you see a line. basically aside tr that liquidation we had back in the late summer and the fall when ten year went to 5% people worried about
>> can't avoid watching for the fed, what the fed does what jay powell says. watching from a high perch. yesterday 18th s&p 500 knew all-time high of this calendar year. that's basically a record pace of all-time highs. go back decades. the most record high s&p done in a calendar year around 72. we got 18 and about a quarter. that basically annualized to just about best ever. can't obviously counter on us continuing to click thus way. i point out we've flattened outalities in the...
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powell testified before the house financial services committee un-aware at the moment of the stomach churning drop in the stock and bank may be fayettevilles a problem more anticipated and shutting down the emergency program and implemented a year ago as silicon valley bank collapsed taking down other regional bank withs it. ensuringly kidty if the bank -- insursuringly quitty and gold ad bitcoin at the moment in gustable slightly all time high and it made yesterday and up about 6% at the moment to $67,000 and gold recently hit an all time high as well and we got it here. let's fix that chart for you. we do have the yellow medal up about $10 to $2,152 a troy ounce. bitcoin billionaire mike and bing capital cochair steve here to assess all the breaking news and first wall street journal top fed journal and what bizarre timing that jay powell was before the house financial services committee had no idea what was happening with new york community bank stock and what do you think he learned and what would he have done with right after he finished testimony in q2? >> new york community ba
powell testified before the house financial services committee un-aware at the moment of the stomach churning drop in the stock and bank may be fayettevilles a problem more anticipated and shutting down the emergency program and implemented a year ago as silicon valley bank collapsed taking down other regional bank withs it. ensuringly kidty if the bank -- insursuringly quitty and gold ad bitcoin at the moment in gustable slightly all time high and it made yesterday and up about 6% at the...
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Mar 4, 2024
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traders await jay powell's congressional testimony and the u.s. jobs report. elon musk using the world's richest person crown to jeff bezos as tesla slumps. paul: also ahead, -- haidi: also ahead, the supreme court puts an end to attempts to keep donald trump off state ballots. >> i'm stephen engle in snowy beijing for the opening of the national people's congress. an openin -- a warning not to invest in china underscores the leaders. haidi: we have breaking news to kick off the hour. south korea gdp numbers coming through on the bloomberg. we are seeing when it comes to the revised fourth quarter number, the preliminary number when it comes to seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter coming in line with expectations. 6/10 of 1% higher. the year on year number in line with expectations. the annual gdp for 2023 at 1.4 percent. all of those readings are in line with expectations. we did see the preliminary numbers showing the same when it comes to the readings. we have seen relative resilience when it comes to things like exports driven by chipmakers in south kore
traders await jay powell's congressional testimony and the u.s. jobs report. elon musk using the world's richest person crown to jeff bezos as tesla slumps. paul: also ahead, -- haidi: also ahead, the supreme court puts an end to attempts to keep donald trump off state ballots. >> i'm stephen engle in snowy beijing for the opening of the national people's congress. an openin -- a warning not to invest in china underscores the leaders. haidi: we have breaking news to kick off the hour....
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Mar 12, 2024
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fed chair jay powell mentioned we are not too far from that confidence and we are expecting to see that disinflation trend resuming in the coming months. and that should lead to the fed easing monetary policy. it is not going to be a fast process. you are going to proceed very carefully. but we expect to see rate cuts this year as inflation continues to come down. and the fed really wants to balance the risk of keeping interest rates too high for too long and risking some damage to the economy and potentially a deeper economic slowdown. or a recession. haidi: the jobs numbers on friday was also quite perplexing for the market. we saw that pretty immediate reaction. i wonder how you are seeing this being conveyed through the strength of the u.s. consumer? are there any concerns at this point? lydia: yeah, the labor market showed continued resilience. i think the february report came as sending some reassuring signal. payrolls remain quite solid. but on these -- but at the same time we saw softening beneath the headline print. we get more rebalancing and further easing in wage growth. we
fed chair jay powell mentioned we are not too far from that confidence and we are expecting to see that disinflation trend resuming in the coming months. and that should lead to the fed easing monetary policy. it is not going to be a fast process. you are going to proceed very carefully. but we expect to see rate cuts this year as inflation continues to come down. and the fed really wants to balance the risk of keeping interest rates too high for too long and risking some damage to the economy...
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Mar 22, 2024
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why is that meaningful after jay powell say he is not as concerned about inflation? >> i do think they are over-optimistic when we look at the setup of where we are historically. you see a second wave of inflation with a late cycle the phenomena with tight inflation and tight commodities. when you have those two setups and on top of the fuel on the fire with the fiscal spending and we are looking at the tight commodities. that's why i'm looking at the ppi. we see metals and energy and cocoa. we need to start paying attention to the signs that the economics are really telling us and the fmoc is trying to be optimistic and reassure about the three cuts and as we go down the road and when we come to september, they will have to start changing their tune. >> you know, you are not the only person worried about re reinflation. blackrock was on yesterday and was focused on that. >> the fed interest rate tool does not impact the heavy levels. healthcare cost and education cost and insurance. there is a dynamic in part why the fed is right to say the last mile is hard. bringi
why is that meaningful after jay powell say he is not as concerned about inflation? >> i do think they are over-optimistic when we look at the setup of where we are historically. you see a second wave of inflation with a late cycle the phenomena with tight inflation and tight commodities. when you have those two setups and on top of the fuel on the fire with the fiscal spending and we are looking at the tight commodities. that's why i'm looking at the ppi. we see metals and energy and...
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Mar 28, 2024
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mike: i'm going with jay powell. jonathan: easy to go with. [laughter] mike: he said would -- we would get a .3% rise and i have no doubt in their analysis. this is of course on a year-over-year basis, which is what the fed is following. chris waller said the same thing last night and as he pointed out, the october to december average was about .03 percent, rather than 3/10 percent. so, it's 10 times higher in january and it would be the same this month. that suggests some progress has halted, if not gone the other way. jonathan: there are 54 estimates on the terminal and only five of them say anything other than 0.3%. i wonder why? and you just basically guess pc from ppi? mike: you can. inflation numbers are some of the best from economists. there might be a surprise in one or the other that push it 1/10 of one way or the other, but if you notice, there are only a certain number that say anything other than 3/10, but it is not a wide dispersion. jonathan: true. tiffany joins us now with more. let's start with the data tomorrow and then we ca
mike: i'm going with jay powell. jonathan: easy to go with. [laughter] mike: he said would -- we would get a .3% rise and i have no doubt in their analysis. this is of course on a year-over-year basis, which is what the fed is following. chris waller said the same thing last night and as he pointed out, the october to december average was about .03 percent, rather than 3/10 percent. so, it's 10 times higher in january and it would be the same this month. that suggests some progress has halted,...
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Mar 20, 2024
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we expect jay powell to speak at 2:30 p.m. eastern. one portfolio manager said traders are expecting high rates but the real economies does not. jim juror jordan is here at 8:. eastern. don't miss that. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ everyone say, “space pod.” cheese. [door creaks open] [ominous music] (♪) [ding] meanwhile, at a vrbo... when other vacation rentals are just for likes, try one you'll actually like. before you use ai to transform business, accelerate growth, predict trends, you need to begin with trust. introducing watsonx governance. helping you govern any ai, as data, models, and policies change, so you can scale it responsibly. let's create ai that begins with trust, with watsonx governance. ibm. let's create. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire maria: welcome back. time for the word on wall stre
we expect jay powell to speak at 2:30 p.m. eastern. one portfolio manager said traders are expecting high rates but the real economies does not. jim juror jordan is here at 8:. eastern. don't miss that. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ everyone say, “space pod.” cheese. [door creaks open] [ominous music] (♪) [ding] meanwhile, at a vrbo... when other vacation rentals are just for likes, try one you'll actually like. before you use ai to transform...
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Mar 14, 2024
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we have fed watcher danielle dimartino booth jay powell, ha he has a tougher task than 24 hours ago. before you give up the hope of the american dream folks, katrina cam pens joins me. it is harder and harder but not i am possible. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so this morning we saw what amounts to back-to-back economic data come in exactly the opposite of what wall street expected and what investors actually hoped for. i'm talking of course the ppi number, producer price index. that is on inflation. that was hotter than consensus. there were retail sales which increased less than expected. here is really what is interesting also. it was far less than expected if you factor in the prior month's revision. i will tell you about that in a moment. like the day before when the cpi number was hotter than expected equity futures initially declined, bond yields went up, what you expect happen but then opposite direction. we're going where we are supposed to now. some say this is the kind of stuff you see during market bubbles but maybe that is an even deeper exp
we have fed watcher danielle dimartino booth jay powell, ha he has a tougher task than 24 hours ago. before you give up the hope of the american dream folks, katrina cam pens joins me. it is harder and harder but not i am possible. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so this morning we saw what amounts to back-to-back economic data come in exactly the opposite of what wall street expected and what investors actually hoped for. i'm talking of course the ppi...
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Mar 15, 2024
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what does jay powell try to do at the upcoming meeting? boy, i really think he -- if he had his druthers he would try to leave basically everything exactly where it is now. retain that optionality that the market seems to have, could be three, could be four cuts this year. he did say they're getting close, but he said, you know, we're not quite there yet. so i think he really does want to just stall a little while longer to make sure that things are not, in fact, going back up. >> is there a -- i assume there is a faction of the committee that still is not convinced that you don't have to suppress labor demand, you don't have to slow the economy more in order to be sure that inflation is heading to target. there's been a lot of talk about whether the dot plot might change as a result of some of that thinking. i guess how much might that matter if at all? >> so it's funny, i completely agree with the premise that there's a wide range of views. in fact, during the 15 years that i was at the fed, at one point i had a boss who was fond of sayi
what does jay powell try to do at the upcoming meeting? boy, i really think he -- if he had his druthers he would try to leave basically everything exactly where it is now. retain that optionality that the market seems to have, could be three, could be four cuts this year. he did say they're getting close, but he said, you know, we're not quite there yet. so i think he really does want to just stall a little while longer to make sure that things are not, in fact, going back up. >> is...
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Mar 20, 2024
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so jay powell's fed performance it is the hottest broadway show around. so far he is sticking with the
so jay powell's fed performance it is the hottest broadway show around. so far he is sticking with the
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Mar 18, 2024
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one, nvidia ceo and jay powell. which one has greater market moving potential? >> plus, march madness officially kicking off this week and the games have changed dramatically. now players are allowed to make money which cleared the way for ea sports to bring back an old favorite and play -- pay players for their names and likenesses. we will get that -- back to back. two straight losing week spirit had not happened since october. you can see the nasdaq is leading the way higher by about 1%. the s&p 500 not too far behind and the dow jones national average of 3/10 of a percent. ai optimism boosting tech stocks and not just in video which we have already seen. google and apple may be working together. those reports both helping those two stocks as well. >> now to the two big events that markets will watch this week. first up jensen wong, nvidia ceo delivering the keynote. that is today at 4:00 p.m. eastern. everyone wants to know what he will say about demand for aig chips and what they have in the pipeline. coming up n wednesday, jay powell, we will hear from the
one, nvidia ceo and jay powell. which one has greater market moving potential? >> plus, march madness officially kicking off this week and the games have changed dramatically. now players are allowed to make money which cleared the way for ea sports to bring back an old favorite and play -- pay players for their names and likenesses. we will get that -- back to back. two straight losing week spirit had not happened since october. you can see the nasdaq is leading the way higher by about...
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Mar 28, 2024
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data is coming out and jay powell is speaking a lot of events for the market at this stage. we are trading at fresh records on the dax and the cac 40. let's take a look at the sectors. most trading positive. a couple of patches of red on the boards this morning, as we look at is the tohe sectors, stronger areas are travel and leisure big stock gauiners with a coupl of to move the needle on the stocks as we gear up for the end of the quarter i think we are not showing you the stocks we are not showing the stocks. we have bigger effifish to fry. we have to talk about the bunny and cocoa. >>> we have bunnies to fry sorry. we are not talking about real bunnies, but chocolate bunnies it is easter this weekend and chocolate at the front of my mind many of yours, as well the key ingredient, cocoa, has soared in prices soared is an understatement. p parabolic on the chart it is because of disease and extreme weather hampered production in the countries like the ivory coast which produce cocoa. it is a sad story. >> it is a sad story there is also climate change reasons with the soar
data is coming out and jay powell is speaking a lot of events for the market at this stage. we are trading at fresh records on the dax and the cac 40. let's take a look at the sectors. most trading positive. a couple of patches of red on the boards this morning, as we look at is the tohe sectors, stronger areas are travel and leisure big stock gauiners with a coupl of to move the needle on the stocks as we gear up for the end of the quarter i think we are not showing you the stocks we are not...
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Mar 8, 2024
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a lot of this came after what we heard from jay powell. he was speaking again before congress and yesterday he said -- this is key. yardeni pointed this out. powell said we are waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. it will be appropriate to dial back the level of restrictions. that is what the market heard. not far from it. as a result, you saw treasury yields pull back. the ten-year yield at 4.07%. the two-year yield at 4.49%. >> it is interesting because it is all based on inflation. we haven't even any definitive proof that the economy is going to fall off a cliff. maybe we can get that today. maybe he knows something. when he said we're getting closer and closer, i thought that was really interesting. i don't know how easy it will be for the last bit of inflation. the last mile of inflation. i thought he was more dovish than i thought. >> i was surprised, too. what we have been talking about is could there be a possibility of rate hikes. >> or non. >> the indication was sticky and does it pick up.
a lot of this came after what we heard from jay powell. he was speaking again before congress and yesterday he said -- this is key. yardeni pointed this out. powell said we are waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. it will be appropriate to dial back the level of restrictions. that is what the market heard. not far from it. as a result, you saw treasury yields pull back. the ten-year yield at 4.07%. the two-year yield at 4.49%. >> it is interesting...
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Mar 20, 2024
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powell at 2:30 p.m. eastern after the meeting concluded at 2:00 o'clock and perhaps will get clarity on what the fed is on rate cuts, joining the fitz-gerald group principal keith fitz-gerald. great to see you, the fed is in a bind according to knecht amorose who was with us yesterday with the wall street journal because the last month of inflation really were hotter than expected do you keep up the fight of inflation to take the inflation down with more rate hikes or do you deal with the market expecting that you very been successful in taking inflation way down and start cutting rates, what are you expecting? >> that's an interesting question. i am the latter the markets are forward-looking which is data-driven and data looking in the rearview mirror, i would like to see the strategic decisions going forward. maria: rebecca you heard from christine legarde from the european central bank. i want to talk about what you read from that. here is jim grant his interest-rate observer founder was with us last
powell at 2:30 p.m. eastern after the meeting concluded at 2:00 o'clock and perhaps will get clarity on what the fed is on rate cuts, joining the fitz-gerald group principal keith fitz-gerald. great to see you, the fed is in a bind according to knecht amorose who was with us yesterday with the wall street journal because the last month of inflation really were hotter than expected do you keep up the fight of inflation to take the inflation down with more rate hikes or do you deal with the...
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Mar 7, 2024
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chairman. >>> all right, the gavel has come down ending fed chair jay powell's testimony on day two, this time before the senate. really underscoring what he has said over the past couple of days, that rate cuts are coming late they are year if the economy and the fed chair's words does, as expected, the stock market obviously liking that once again because we do have a rally on wall street. bond yields are falling. the ten year hitting a one-month low at 4.11%. we have a lot to get to. i have the investmentcommittee here. we'll get to a lot of stuff. i want to bring in senior economics reporter steve liesman. steve, that is the headline of what the chair said today. rates are coming if the economy does as expected and what he started to say yesterday. >> reporter: yeah. i think it's very much a repeat, scott, of that. the economy is in a good place, talking about the u.s. being the best of the advanced economies, waiting to be more confident to cut rates. a lot of talk about fiscal policy for the housing market and a deep dive coming on the balance sheet. scott, i think the story he
chairman. >>> all right, the gavel has come down ending fed chair jay powell's testimony on day two, this time before the senate. really underscoring what he has said over the past couple of days, that rate cuts are coming late they are year if the economy and the fed chair's words does, as expected, the stock market obviously liking that once again because we do have a rally on wall street. bond yields are falling. the ten year hitting a one-month low at 4.11%. we have a lot to get...
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Mar 18, 2024
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no respect to jay powell. it could end up being a huge yon and we could wind up being back or we started but this rally, since october with big tech, it's been one leg it and nvidia has led the charge. i don't think we can afford a rebuff from nvidia here. the rally, broadening out a bit, but it's early days. nvidia -- jonathan: nvidia feels fundamentally driven given the numbers it has been putting up. with broadening out, how fundamentally driven is the rotation? rosa: -- ben: pretty fundamental. we have had lower s&p for two weeks, equal weight hitting the first of all time last week. euro stocks outperforming s&p. i think it's happening. it's happening because earnings either haven't been as bad as expected and the rest of the world, or the outlook is looking a little bit better the closer that we get to rate cuts. i still think that those cuts are coming. earnings have been over delivering. rate cuts have been pushed back for the right reason, so to speak, with growth better-than-expected. lisa: what woul
no respect to jay powell. it could end up being a huge yon and we could wind up being back or we started but this rally, since october with big tech, it's been one leg it and nvidia has led the charge. i don't think we can afford a rebuff from nvidia here. the rally, broadening out a bit, but it's early days. nvidia -- jonathan: nvidia feels fundamentally driven given the numbers it has been putting up. with broadening out, how fundamentally driven is the rotation? rosa: -- ben: pretty...
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Mar 11, 2024
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i don't know if jay powell took a shot after he saw that or not? >> i think long-term the fiscal deficit is baked into the cake. regardless of election outcomes, regardless of a lot of things, a lot is demographic driven. a lot has built up over a long period of time. that is constant multitrillion dollar deficit which is a background stimulus for certain parts of the economy that are receiving it but also structurally inflationary and the tight monetary policy can restrict some areas of the economy, particularly the interest interest rate sensitive areas, commercial real estate all the usual names. the problem when the public debt is so high relative to the size of the economy like it is right now, the higher interest rate also blows out the deficit significantly and so the overall monetary policy becomes somewhat less effective at cooling down the economy or cooling down inflation than it would if there was a lower debt environment. so one of the reasons i'm bullish on assets like bitcoin or gold or say energy stocks, for example, is because i th
i don't know if jay powell took a shot after he saw that or not? >> i think long-term the fiscal deficit is baked into the cake. regardless of election outcomes, regardless of a lot of things, a lot is demographic driven. a lot has built up over a long period of time. that is constant multitrillion dollar deficit which is a background stimulus for certain parts of the economy that are receiving it but also structurally inflationary and the tight monetary policy can restrict some areas of...
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Mar 25, 2024
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this latest verse of jay powell has a lot of folks scratching their heads. meanwhile rotation and red flags. there is a lot going on beneath the surface. we have you covered. baseball scandal, chip wars, and president biden weighing in on real estate commissions. all that is for rob luna. past is prologue, welcome back judge roy bean and tom fitton on law fair in 2024. my latest on the casualties in the scorched earth climate change agenda. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: you know the old saying, follow the money? you can also say maybe follow the targets. so last week i pointed out wall street continues to stress their targets, right? and here's the thing they have been so tepid, they have been very, very tepid. coming into the year you can see i mean the numbers are really low. the street was looking on average 4891. we blew that past a long time ago. societe generale, 5200. this is what you will start seeing now. sort of like, if things are freight, this is what happens. it is really weird, if i jump off a pier i will get wet. o
this latest verse of jay powell has a lot of folks scratching their heads. meanwhile rotation and red flags. there is a lot going on beneath the surface. we have you covered. baseball scandal, chip wars, and president biden weighing in on real estate commissions. all that is for rob luna. past is prologue, welcome back judge roy bean and tom fitton on law fair in 2024. my latest on the casualties in the scorched earth climate change agenda. all that and so much more on "making money."...
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Mar 7, 2024
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stocks gain as fed chair jay powell says interest rates will likely fall this year, but tensions between the u.s. and china keeping hong kong and caddies -- equities in check. we discussed tech valuations as the market cap of the nasdaq composite the size of the u.s. economy. and in india, the rbi on a crackdown drive against schedule lenders. dive deeper into what is making the central bank nervous about the financial sector. we've got a great lineup of voices, including j.p. morgan head of economic research, and the ceo of singapore's budget carrier. in the markets it's about fed and jerome powell saying you know what, rate cuts can wait, but it is appropriate to cut rates this year. pal reiterating what he's said before, but consider whether it's appropriate this year. we also heard from neel kashkari, weighing in and saying maybe he sees two or maybe just one rate cut this year. the msci asia-pacific index up about 3/10 of 1%. we are keeping and i csi 300 index. it is about the mpc. it states and we heard from the pboc governor saying there is still room for rate cuts. at rrr that in
stocks gain as fed chair jay powell says interest rates will likely fall this year, but tensions between the u.s. and china keeping hong kong and caddies -- equities in check. we discussed tech valuations as the market cap of the nasdaq composite the size of the u.s. economy. and in india, the rbi on a crackdown drive against schedule lenders. dive deeper into what is making the central bank nervous about the financial sector. we've got a great lineup of voices, including j.p. morgan head of...
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Mar 15, 2024
03/24
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lisa: are you saying the biggest rest -- risk cases for jay powell to say i care about equities? >> the biggest risk for next week is we all look at the 2024 dot and it says 50, not 75 basis points worth of rate cuts and it triggers a more dramatic bear market. jonathan: that would still imply 75 basis points. is it 50 or 75 next week? >> base case is 75 but there is a real risk of 50. jonathan: thank you, sir. what's developing in the economic data and how the fed will respond this year. lisa: you've got a little bit of everything. they've been talking about the weakness allowing the fed to cut more even at a time when there is this inflationary pressure. a really tough moment. jonathan: getting closer to 4.30 on the u.s. 10 year. we are higher by 20 basis points on the week. coming up next hour, we will catch up with sam stovall, kathy but jan six, will kennedy and mark gurman will talk about the commodity market and what's developing with apple. there is so much in the commodity market. copper through nine a in gold at all-time highs in oil close to the highs of the year. live
lisa: are you saying the biggest rest -- risk cases for jay powell to say i care about equities? >> the biggest risk for next week is we all look at the 2024 dot and it says 50, not 75 basis points worth of rate cuts and it triggers a more dramatic bear market. jonathan: that would still imply 75 basis points. is it 50 or 75 next week? >> base case is 75 but there is a real risk of 50. jonathan: thank you, sir. what's developing in the economic data and how the fed will respond this...
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Mar 20, 2024
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we will see if jay powell has any kind of information he can expand on on what their conversation entailed. katie: only have about 45 seconds but that's the 2:00 p.m. numbers and then the 2:30 p.m. press conference. what kind of tone do you think jerome powell will take? mike: powell has alternated between being hawkish and dovish at his press conferences and tend to change as the day goes on. we will see if he can retain a neutral outlook this time and keep people from reacting too much to what they think he might've said. katie: a busy man, i'm sure you will be peppering today. let sick a quick look at some of the stocks hitting highs and lows and we kick off with chipotle hitting a high after they hit a stock split. it would be the first in the company's 30 year history and one of the biggest stock split in the history of the new york stock exchange. international paper hitting highs after reporting kkr's andrew silverdale as ceo. meanwhile take a look at the downside, a burberry hitting lows off a lot of the leather luxury names after a steeper than expected kleiman asian sales. the pr
we will see if jay powell has any kind of information he can expand on on what their conversation entailed. katie: only have about 45 seconds but that's the 2:00 p.m. numbers and then the 2:30 p.m. press conference. what kind of tone do you think jerome powell will take? mike: powell has alternated between being hawkish and dovish at his press conferences and tend to change as the day goes on. we will see if he can retain a neutral outlook this time and keep people from reacting too much to...
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Mar 20, 2024
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the press conference from jay powell had him sounding relatively dovish in this community hearings. we reiterate with the dot plots being adjusted. that is 6:00 p.m. u.k. time. meanwhile, reddit is set to press one of the year's most costly u.s. ipos. that is later today. they said they would raise as much as 700 care $740 million. they are on the u.s. stock exchange thursday as a symbol of the ddt. you can get around up of the stories you need to now on this today's -- on the stairs edition of daybreak. d.a. why bigo. today we are looking at a bloomberg script on some of the supplies while becoming through on the u.s. of administration. a crucial store in terms of the supply chain around semiconductors in china. in the ability to move up in terms of value and sophistication. that is one of the key stories on the list. also the details and the buildup in the preview of the fed. we will get her view on india's stock market ahead of next month's election as indian stocks have come under pressure in the last three days or so. the details on that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> loo
the press conference from jay powell had him sounding relatively dovish in this community hearings. we reiterate with the dot plots being adjusted. that is 6:00 p.m. u.k. time. meanwhile, reddit is set to press one of the year's most costly u.s. ipos. that is later today. they said they would raise as much as 700 care $740 million. they are on the u.s. stock exchange thursday as a symbol of the ddt. you can get around up of the stories you need to now on this today's -- on the stairs edition of...
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Mar 19, 2024
03/24
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jay powell says monetary policy is that well into restrictive territory. financial conditions are not telling you that. i cannot help but rewind to where we were last summer and fall. as we know at that point in time we saw a rates selloff very materially. the 10 year rose over 100 basis points. the 10 year real rate rising a similar amount. risk assets were relatively stable. the equity market did not go down. credit spreads did not widen. the fed told us they were very worried about higher term premium and they felt higher interest rates were doing the work for them. when we looked at risk assets we set risk assets do not care about this. risk assets do not care about the rate rise because we thought it was all about better growth expectations. the market was taking fed rates cuts and risk assets were generally ok with that and then the fed subsequently eased in the face of that and drove rates lower over the course of november and december through very dovish rhetoric and the treasury department also did their part. they issued less long dated bonds tha
jay powell says monetary policy is that well into restrictive territory. financial conditions are not telling you that. i cannot help but rewind to where we were last summer and fall. as we know at that point in time we saw a rates selloff very materially. the 10 year rose over 100 basis points. the 10 year real rate rising a similar amount. risk assets were relatively stable. the equity market did not go down. credit spreads did not widen. the fed told us they were very worried about higher...
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Mar 21, 2024
03/24
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fed narrative playing very much the overarching story for today's session, given we saw jay powell not shying away from rate cuts this year so we saw a rally in u.s. stocks, s&p 500 moving beyond 5200, and pretty much every sector is in the green. a couple standing out, gold today, pushing above 2200 per ounce for the first time ever. you can see it pretty much in line with that right now, but very strong gains we are seeing so far for some of the gold movers. it's really the fed story playing into it. haidi: you mentioned the reaction in the markets when it comes to that supplies unemployment number from australia, we've seen three year bond futures dropping in australia after the jobs report. we are also seeing appearing of those gains across the equity session as well, the australian dollar extending some of that gain we've already seen in the session. let's bring back garfield reynolds. we are talking about the volatility of this data series, it was supposed to become and has been for a while now us volatile, but this was quite a surprise. garfield: definitely quite a surprise. i w
fed narrative playing very much the overarching story for today's session, given we saw jay powell not shying away from rate cuts this year so we saw a rally in u.s. stocks, s&p 500 moving beyond 5200, and pretty much every sector is in the green. a couple standing out, gold today, pushing above 2200 per ounce for the first time ever. you can see it pretty much in line with that right now, but very strong gains we are seeing so far for some of the gold movers. it's really the fed story...
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Mar 21, 2024
03/24
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jay powell says he's not worried as he underlines the story of easing price pressures has not changed. >> the january number which was very high, there is reason to think that there could be seasonable effects there. nonetheless, we don't want to be dismissive of it. the february number was higher than expectations. i take the two of them together and i think they haven't really changed the overall story which is that of inflation moving down gradually on the sometimes bumpy road. haslinda: equities on a tear post fed. however, investors are pretty cautious on the outlook for u.s. stocks and treasuries. fed officials stick to their guidance on rate cuts this year. let's dig deeper. get perspective with garfield reynolds who leads the markets live coverage in asia. run us through the responses you've seen. >> yeah. thanks. tukey responses. yes, they expect that stocks will keep rallying. they don't expect that the breathtaking pace we've seen so far this year, up 10% or so so far, can possibly continue. in fact, by the end of the year, the s&p 500 will be just about 5400. that's only a
jay powell says he's not worried as he underlines the story of easing price pressures has not changed. >> the january number which was very high, there is reason to think that there could be seasonable effects there. nonetheless, we don't want to be dismissive of it. the february number was higher than expectations. i take the two of them together and i think they haven't really changed the overall story which is that of inflation moving down gradually on the sometimes bumpy road....
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Mar 22, 2024
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this is jay powell's favorite. we are no longer fighting the fed. they don't seem inclined to raise rates when they are supposed to be cutting them. even if we hear a lot of noise about overheated inflation numbers i would consider it a buying opportunity. let's go to sean in texas. >> hey. i have a question about a stock i originally bought for the dividend yield. pioneer. it's going back up some in the merger with pioneer and exxon. would it be a good idea to sell? >> you should will that money. i tell members what they should own. ct ra. that's a better value now. pioneer is trapped by the price of exxon. let's go to kevin. >> hey. what's up? >> what's your thought on nike with the shift in strategy? traffic is up 36% and of january and february seems like a buying opportunity. >> i've been struggling. there's a really good quarter. i don't want to hear about them not spending money on sporting goods. nike has to try to bottom before i'll recommend it. it's got a great name but the next quarter. let's go to greg in illinois. >> so happy to peak t
this is jay powell's favorite. we are no longer fighting the fed. they don't seem inclined to raise rates when they are supposed to be cutting them. even if we hear a lot of noise about overheated inflation numbers i would consider it a buying opportunity. let's go to sean in texas. >> hey. i have a question about a stock i originally bought for the dividend yield. pioneer. it's going back up some in the merger with pioneer and exxon. would it be a good idea to sell? >> you should...
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all eyes are on jay powell and the fed. he won't have a rush to cut rates. >> real quick, final word. >> jetblue termination is because of the government stepping in. they are doing it too much and it's antibusiness. >> they don't want to see companies get bigger. thank you everybody. see you same place. varney and company picks it up. >> what a week coming up. this is politics on steroids and biden is not looking good. a new york times poll shows a large majority of people. 61% believe he's too old for a second term. the wall street journal said democrats are in a panic. one hour from now the supreme court will issue a ruling about keeping trump off the ballot. they will likely keep him on-the-ball lot and that's a hit on biden. biden will win the primary but write-in uncommitted votes. thursday state of the union message a nightmare for biden. he can't afford a gaf or slur his words. everyone is looking at him to see if he can do his job. we'll have a better idea to see if the president will be on the top of the ticket. b
all eyes are on jay powell and the fed. he won't have a rush to cut rates. >> real quick, final word. >> jetblue termination is because of the government stepping in. they are doing it too much and it's antibusiness. >> they don't want to see companies get bigger. thank you everybody. see you same place. varney and company picks it up. >> what a week coming up. this is politics on steroids and biden is not looking good. a new york times poll shows a large majority of...
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Mar 18, 2024
03/24
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pacific time or jay powell wednesday? >> i'm of the mind that there's a little more debate and a little more interpretation that's over with powell. look, nvidia's gone up and it's just levitated no matter what anybody says and no matter what anybody thinks and what the street believes it's worth and so i feel like we're more dependent on the broader economy and even the broader market on powell. >> mike, thank you. good to see you. mike santoli. coming up, the tesla shares are rallying and we'll debate the call next. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. >>> back to the halftime repor
pacific time or jay powell wednesday? >> i'm of the mind that there's a little more debate and a little more interpretation that's over with powell. look, nvidia's gone up and it's just levitated no matter what anybody says and no matter what anybody thinks and what the street believes it's worth and so i feel like we're more dependent on the broader economy and even the broader market on powell. >> mike, thank you. good to see you. mike santoli. coming up, the tesla shares are...