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Jun 11, 2023
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the pboc also in focus. greg economics and bloomberg intelligence is split as to whether we will see the pboc cutting key rates as pressure mounts when it comes to expectations for further stimulus to give a bit more of a catalyst. we had a anemic cpi and falling ppi as well supporting the case for more measures to come through. take a look at the oil market, one of the biggest movers we have seen over the past week. flip-flop trading continues to the downside today. new york crude off about .4%. brent crude also a bit softer. goldman sachs really driving what we see when it comes to potentially the future catalyst for the oil market holding the losses as they have cut their outlook again. they see brent trading below $90 by the end of the year. really, this very interesting situation. broader macroeconomic concerns. of course. perhaps the focus for oil traders is more on the demand side when it comes to the china story and production cuts from the saudi's. shery: let's bring in our global policy editor kath
the pboc also in focus. greg economics and bloomberg intelligence is split as to whether we will see the pboc cutting key rates as pressure mounts when it comes to expectations for further stimulus to give a bit more of a catalyst. we had a anemic cpi and falling ppi as well supporting the case for more measures to come through. take a look at the oil market, one of the biggest movers we have seen over the past week. flip-flop trading continues to the downside today. new york crude off about...
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Jun 20, 2023
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also cars qe and people asking y has the pboc not done qe? we look at the balance sheet of that central bank, it is low compared to japan and that fed than the u.s.. getting the central government and getting the pboc to roll out more aggressive measures, let's see if that is likely. yousef: thank you for the analysis. really important. so here it -- sofia horta e costa, our chief correspondence and hong kong. president biden has held progress in restoring ties as his secretary of state antony blinken wreps up meetings with president xi jinping. we are joined by bloomberg bruce einhorn in hong kong. this is being hailed as a step forward and marginal progress. what comes next? do we go from here? bruce: that is a good question. president biden was enthusiastic and said antony blinken, the secretary of state did a helluva job on his trip to beijing and the president said the u.s. and china are on the right trail as he put it. from the chinese side, it does seem that the chinese were upbeat about the status of the talks because they did give th
also cars qe and people asking y has the pboc not done qe? we look at the balance sheet of that central bank, it is low compared to japan and that fed than the u.s.. getting the central government and getting the pboc to roll out more aggressive measures, let's see if that is likely. yousef: thank you for the analysis. really important. so here it -- sofia horta e costa, our chief correspondence and hong kong. president biden has held progress in restoring ties as his secretary of state antony...
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Jun 14, 2023
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that is reflected in the credit data released by the pboc last night. the aggregate financing and also the loans fell compared to a year ago. you need to make sure corporate's are willing to borrow. it does not seem to be the case. david: thank you. our shanghai bureau chief. in 15 minutes based on my calendar the sunak china winding up court hearing is set to be gin. cyclicals are leading this rally on the back of some of the things china with -- charlie was mentioning. on the back of hopes anxiety stabilize and in china. yvonne: we are talking about dollar china hitting 716. we are glad talk about china fx with our next guest. talking about the renminbi now we have seen continuing weakness. what does it mean for dollar china in the next weeks and stick them? -- next weeks and months to come? david: we talk about of the outlook for credit suisse employees and maybe ubs employees amidst this merger. as well as reading the broader hiring trends in banking. michael page on what they are seeing on the ground in hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first t
that is reflected in the credit data released by the pboc last night. the aggregate financing and also the loans fell compared to a year ago. you need to make sure corporate's are willing to borrow. it does not seem to be the case. david: thank you. our shanghai bureau chief. in 15 minutes based on my calendar the sunak china winding up court hearing is set to be gin. cyclicals are leading this rally on the back of some of the things china with -- charlie was mentioning. on the back of hopes...
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Jun 15, 2023
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francine: we have ecb today and the he boj -- pboc 12. nour: we had reporting last week we are not going to abandon the yield curve. the boj is going to stay in line with what they have done. the new central bank governors still adjusting to his new post. japan has been talking about becoming more accommodative in terms of the budget and supporting the government but to be honest we are not pricing for that in the market. there is room for upside surprise. i don't know if we will see that and i think the yen can definitely show that. trading at 1.39 we will potentially continue in that market. if there is a surprise, we are not prepared for that from the markets perspective. francine: all bets are off. thank you so much. nour al ali. a lot of traders are preparing for the boj tomorrow. coming up, plenty more on the markets. that is it the european market open. surveillance early edition is up next. stocks retreating and sentiment subdued by the federal reserve's hawkish tone. we had week and i'm from china weighing on resource companies.
francine: we have ecb today and the he boj -- pboc 12. nour: we had reporting last week we are not going to abandon the yield curve. the boj is going to stay in line with what they have done. the new central bank governors still adjusting to his new post. japan has been talking about becoming more accommodative in terms of the budget and supporting the government but to be honest we are not pricing for that in the market. there is room for upside surprise. i don't know if we will see that and i...
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Jun 14, 2023
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shery: the pboc lowering the one-year lending rate. paul, as we are talking about the fomc, have the pboc, the ecb, the boj, what are you watching in the markets for reaction? >> i think steven summed up the predicament for china nicely. the malaise and need to revive the confidence again. it is kind of in a funk. investors are putting more of their money abroad, where better to look then japan where the market has been flying high recently, setting those new 30 year highs. the boj sitting on its hand, not moving to tighten policy yet. no expectation in the market or among economists for a shift this month maybe we will move towards something coming down the line. at the moment, we are seeing chinese investors putting money into japanese ets, that tells you where the early to is right now. -- relative value is right now. heidi: it is a busy day of news flow ahead. still ahead, we are getting analysis when it comes to the fed's path forward. john taylor gives us his reaction to the fed's latest leg which and what more he thinks the cent
shery: the pboc lowering the one-year lending rate. paul, as we are talking about the fomc, have the pboc, the ecb, the boj, what are you watching in the markets for reaction? >> i think steven summed up the predicament for china nicely. the malaise and need to revive the confidence again. it is kind of in a funk. investors are putting more of their money abroad, where better to look then japan where the market has been flying high recently, setting those new 30 year highs. the boj...
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Jun 9, 2023
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china's cpi holds near zero in may as producer prices slide, fueling calls for the pboc rates cuts. stocks push higher after the s&p 500 enters a bull market. new governor. president erdogan appoints a new head of the turkey central bank, which could signal a return to traditional monetary policy. however, the lyric continues to weaken. donald trump is said to be -- the lira continues to can. donald trump are said to be indicted for his refusal to return classified documents found at his home. he says he is innocent. a very good morning. 9:00 a.m. across the emirates, 6:00 a.m. in london, 7:00 a.m. in berlin. are you part of the bull market? these are the questions you need to ask yourself. the equity markets flew into a flurry of bids on the back of the highest jobless claims since 2021 and a tank of oil, dropping by 4%. that imbued a spirit of relief in the equity market. the nikkei and the cash market up 1.7% -- in the cash market up on .7%. the s&p 500 -- up 1.7%. s&p 500. the russell 2000 is moving other bit higher, people are buying bank stocks and utilities. let's roll it ove
china's cpi holds near zero in may as producer prices slide, fueling calls for the pboc rates cuts. stocks push higher after the s&p 500 enters a bull market. new governor. president erdogan appoints a new head of the turkey central bank, which could signal a return to traditional monetary policy. however, the lyric continues to weaken. donald trump is said to be -- the lira continues to can. donald trump are said to be indicted for his refusal to return classified documents found at his...
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Jun 12, 2023
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then we have the ecb and pboc further afield. the are seeing gains when it comes to equity indices just opening up. the ibex in spain gaining 0.4%. the french two year yield at 3.08. we also have the cpi coming better than expected for the future of the u.k., so it is not always all doom and gloom here in great britain. when we look at some of the great -- commodity prices, not only gas and oil, but we have a great story on the bloomberg terminal on what opec+ will do next. let's look across asset at what treasuries are doing. it will depend a lot on what central banks do. for the moment, s&p futures gaining 0.2%. the other thing we are watching out for is we are seeing this brent crude $74. a huge w for the central banks lie ahead. first up we have the fed, followed by the ecb, pboc, and bank of japan. i am joined by maria municchi, fund manager at m&g investment management. it is clear something happened last week with the surprise from the central bank of canada and the rba. what are you expecting the fed to do this week? mari
then we have the ecb and pboc further afield. the are seeing gains when it comes to equity indices just opening up. the ibex in spain gaining 0.4%. the french two year yield at 3.08. we also have the cpi coming better than expected for the future of the u.k., so it is not always all doom and gloom here in great britain. when we look at some of the great -- commodity prices, not only gas and oil, but we have a great story on the bloomberg terminal on what opec+ will do next. let's look across...
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Jun 13, 2023
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haslinda: how much will a downside to the gwan can the pboc tolerate? what is your prediction on where the yuan will trade? >> without -- the timing suggests they are ok with depreciation. they are willing to trigger more depreciation. it seems that their tolerance levels much higher. there is more to go. haslinda: how about the gwan versus other asian currencies? do you see that accelerating or decelerating? >> it seems that the correlation between the chinese currency and the other seems to be weakening the little bit. every currency has a little bit of its own momentum. we are thinking that maybe something is changing now because investors are redirecting their investment flow away from china to other markets. that might be able to help the other markets. rishaad: what would be the catalyst for people to start invest? there is a wall of money waiting to come in. >> you can lower interest rates, companies are saving a lot, but they are just not spending or investing. that seems to be the situation with chinese households these days. the central govern
haslinda: how much will a downside to the gwan can the pboc tolerate? what is your prediction on where the yuan will trade? >> without -- the timing suggests they are ok with depreciation. they are willing to trigger more depreciation. it seems that their tolerance levels much higher. there is more to go. haslinda: how about the gwan versus other asian currencies? do you see that accelerating or decelerating? >> it seems that the correlation between the chinese currency and the...
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Jun 15, 2023
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we have to talk about the china decision from the pboc. in contrast to the fed, they have actually started to cut. we've got some economic data today. how bad was the data? what is beijing doing to get things back on track? jill: this data was pretty disappointing today. i do not think there were any major surprises. a slowdown in growth for retail sales in china, a slowdown in growth for industrial output. you cite investment tapering off quite a bit. i think were -- you saw investment tapering off quite a bit. youth unemployment had a fresh record high. we saw property investment decline at a steeper pace than economists were expecting. this is all informing the picture we have been seeing over the last few weeks, which is china's economy, this economic activity is slowing down, and the economy needs some help. that's what you are seeing from the central bank, for example, just earlier today, they cut the rate on their one-year policy loans. that was the first time they had done so since august. it had been pretty heavily telegraphed ear
we have to talk about the china decision from the pboc. in contrast to the fed, they have actually started to cut. we've got some economic data today. how bad was the data? what is beijing doing to get things back on track? jill: this data was pretty disappointing today. i do not think there were any major surprises. a slowdown in growth for retail sales in china, a slowdown in growth for industrial output. you cite investment tapering off quite a bit. i think were -- you saw investment...
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Jun 12, 2023
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the pboc might not do anything on the one you're right. yvonne: ecb he is like that might hike but that is almost done too. rishaad: five basis points excited to take rates up 3.5%. look at what they have to deal with. summary different economies they're having to deal with. we have italy expending .6%. germany, .3% contraction. the smaller players. ireland with a contraction of 4.6% gdp quarter on quarter. this divergence is huge. one size does not fit all. yvonne: you mentioned divergence. seeing fed pricing leading up to june. we went from fully pricing in a rate hike to now a third of a chance it may hike. i don't think we have gone into a fed meeting like this aware everything is still kind of up in the air where you are not getting a clear consensus right now. rishaad: a skip or pause. the difference being i'm assuming is you pause for a while. skip means he you miss one out. what is a help? david: over 10 years let's say you could pause for five years. restart a new credit cycle. jokes aside, the fact that we are debating it and the
the pboc might not do anything on the one you're right. yvonne: ecb he is like that might hike but that is almost done too. rishaad: five basis points excited to take rates up 3.5%. look at what they have to deal with. summary different economies they're having to deal with. we have italy expending .6%. germany, .3% contraction. the smaller players. ireland with a contraction of 4.6% gdp quarter on quarter. this divergence is huge. one size does not fit all. yvonne: you mentioned divergence....
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Jun 7, 2023
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not just the fed, but the pboc as well. even in china, rate cut expectations have been growing as we see further signs of the weaker economic recovery. the story about the guidance to banks to cut deposit rates. just another sign that we are perhaps seeing more stimulus and easing on the way. also in the bank of japan, calls for a tweak to the ycc. and of course, the you see the grounding that as well, officials watching higher rates, even as we see a bit more steady retreat on inflation across the e.u.. for more, let's bring our executive editor for asian markets, paul dobson. when you look at the surge in tightening, it is playing out through australian bond markets as well, is this shifting the narrative as well get into some key central-bank decisions next week? paul: good morning. i am not sure that the narrative has changed. , you know, we are facing this generational spike in inflation across developed markets and central banks still having to deal with that, so the slightly unexpected rate hikes from australia and c
not just the fed, but the pboc as well. even in china, rate cut expectations have been growing as we see further signs of the weaker economic recovery. the story about the guidance to banks to cut deposit rates. just another sign that we are perhaps seeing more stimulus and easing on the way. also in the bank of japan, calls for a tweak to the ycc. and of course, the you see the grounding that as well, officials watching higher rates, even as we see a bit more steady retreat on inflation across...
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Jun 29, 2023
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the pboc pushes back on the weakness around the yuan. year to date it is down about 5% versus the u.s. dollar. a chief economist and someone who really has his finger on the pulse of all things china says he sees it getting back to 7.3 in the next two months, but it is another sign that the pboc is coming uncomfortable when the weaknesses come through for the chinese currency. let's bring in our markets slide managing editor, mark cudmore. talk to us about the appetite or not for chinese assets, the reopening play and whether it has finally come completely run out of steam. mark: there is no appetite for the reopening. there is no appetite for chinese assets. people have completely given up on china reopening. investment is faltering and exports are slowing. it's just a really negative picture. there is no obvious trigger to turn this around. last year there was a bid to in covid zero. the government does not want to stimulate another massive re-inflation of the property bubble when there is still a large debt overhang. so you've got a c
the pboc pushes back on the weakness around the yuan. year to date it is down about 5% versus the u.s. dollar. a chief economist and someone who really has his finger on the pulse of all things china says he sees it getting back to 7.3 in the next two months, but it is another sign that the pboc is coming uncomfortable when the weaknesses come through for the chinese currency. let's bring in our markets slide managing editor, mark cudmore. talk to us about the appetite or not for chinese...
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Jun 21, 2023
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we find ourselves with the pboc and what they are grappling with as well. disinflation, an economy which is perhaps stuttering after the pandemic restrictions lifted. are they doing enough? >> i would say the policy rate cuts thus far, only at 10 basis points across the curve, as more of a signal rather that very little cuts because at the end of the day the pboc can ease financial conditions even further even without a cut in the policy rate just by raising the liquidity injections they would provide to the market. yet the market is clearly looking for more details on the policy support because the problem in china is the lack of confidence. and you need to introduce animal spirits back into the market for the households and the corporations to spend more. haslinda: it is all playing out in yuan weakness. do you think the pboc is comfortable with the weakness or is it a reflection of the economy? >> i would say they are quite comfortable with the weakness. just looking at the deviation from market estimates. overall the average deviation has been zero. the
we find ourselves with the pboc and what they are grappling with as well. disinflation, an economy which is perhaps stuttering after the pandemic restrictions lifted. are they doing enough? >> i would say the policy rate cuts thus far, only at 10 basis points across the curve, as more of a signal rather that very little cuts because at the end of the day the pboc can ease financial conditions even further even without a cut in the policy rate just by raising the liquidity injections they...
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Jun 15, 2023
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. >> the pboc ramps up rate cuts as they confirm weaker economic activity in may and coverage from the economic forum in hong kong with guests from two major companies. >> lost -- lots for investors to digest. raising up by 50 basis points
. >> the pboc ramps up rate cuts as they confirm weaker economic activity in may and coverage from the economic forum in hong kong with guests from two major companies. >> lost -- lots for investors to digest. raising up by 50 basis points
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Jun 27, 2023
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we have the pboc fixing the currency higher than expected for a second day. it is trying to support the currency. we have to yuan at 7.21, at seven month lows. we are waiting for more stimulus and was from the pboc to lift the currency. we are also tracking gsr, -- j sr, shares jumping for a second day saying there was a buyout and privatizing the world's leader in chipmaking compounds. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with the xfinity 10g network. to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i
we have the pboc fixing the currency higher than expected for a second day. it is trying to support the currency. we have to yuan at 7.21, at seven month lows. we are waiting for more stimulus and was from the pboc to lift the currency. we are also tracking gsr, -- j sr, shares jumping for a second day saying there was a buyout and privatizing the world's leader in chipmaking compounds. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you...
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Jun 20, 2023
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chinese banks have cut the benchmark lending rate following a move by the pboc. one year and five year loan private rates have been cut by 10 basis points each. investor disappointment has tempered stocks lower. joining us more for all this is the award. and bruce einhorn, both in hong kong. why the markets disappointed today's lpr cut? >> there is interest-rate fatigue because we have had to so many moves from the pboc and banks to lower the cost of borrowing in china when actually the problem is there is no demand to borrow. credit demand is weak. there was an expectation that may be banks would cut the five-year that underpins mortgages by 15 basis points. instead, they delivered a 10 basis point cut. at the end of the day there is concern that it does not matter how cheap credit is. it is not flow into the real economy because households are still deleveraging and that is the challenge for policymakers in beijing and this will not fix it. it was lower-than-expected and it is only five basis points difference but that does not explain why the market is so disa
chinese banks have cut the benchmark lending rate following a move by the pboc. one year and five year loan private rates have been cut by 10 basis points each. investor disappointment has tempered stocks lower. joining us more for all this is the award. and bruce einhorn, both in hong kong. why the markets disappointed today's lpr cut? >> there is interest-rate fatigue because we have had to so many moves from the pboc and banks to lower the cost of borrowing in china when actually the...
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Jun 13, 2023
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as well as what we see for the pboc. a chance we see a cut to the medium term lending facility on thursday. these are supportive factors for equities in this session. let's change now and take a look at other asset classes. bonds in particular. we are seeing yields moving higher. very much tracking what we saw in treasuries overnight. that expectation also building in. the fed will be cutting interest rates later this year. currencies likewise in focus. we are seeing the dollar holding on to some of its declines in the early session but currency is trading flat. watching the offshore yuan in particular giving us all that expectation in the hopes that traders are around the need for stimulus to try to boost the economy. vonnie: as you mentioned, futures have started trading, it's very early going in the session. s&p futures and nasdaq pointing to small gains. dow futures pointing to declines. many reflecting the regular session which is that the s&p is 70's -- 7/10 of a percent and the nasdaq rose 8/10 of a percent. this
as well as what we see for the pboc. a chance we see a cut to the medium term lending facility on thursday. these are supportive factors for equities in this session. let's change now and take a look at other asset classes. bonds in particular. we are seeing yields moving higher. very much tracking what we saw in treasuries overnight. that expectation also building in. the fed will be cutting interest rates later this year. currencies likewise in focus. we are seeing the dollar holding on to...
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Jun 9, 2023
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we expect the pboc to ease rates but it is like pushing with a rope. they can do a little bit and do things on the fringes stabilizing the market. the property market ceased to be the engine of the economy. if they really wanted to do things, they may have to go back to what they have done in the past where they become -- where the government itself becomes much more of a demand on the market. china will reach a 5% growth target. we think the second half will be better. we have a below consensus. we believe china will grow 5.3% this year while others think it will be 6%. francine: what does that mean for the support that the chinese economy needs right now? does that give a lift to the rest of the world economically? christian: it seems in china there is a lack of confidence among the domestic consumer. the domestic consumer in china got through the pandemic worse than those in the rest. there was never big fiscal support. people in the pandemic had to live off their savings. there is a lack of confidence. the government is willing to support the econo
we expect the pboc to ease rates but it is like pushing with a rope. they can do a little bit and do things on the fringes stabilizing the market. the property market ceased to be the engine of the economy. if they really wanted to do things, they may have to go back to what they have done in the past where they become -- where the government itself becomes much more of a demand on the market. china will reach a 5% growth target. we think the second half will be better. we have a below...
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Jun 29, 2023
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this comes from a new pboc survey. >> that's right, we got this one out from the pboc and it is a gauge of urban depositors surveys and reading through that it is about china reading the tea leaves on how consumers are feeling about prospects around income. what we actually saw around that latest sentiment index here is that it slipped further again so we are now at 49 point which tells us a lot of people in china are concerned about the outlook for their incomes and the latest survey results from the pboc indicate that around 1/6 of the respondents dropped from the reporting. as well. certainly not a good outlook. you can combine that with another survey which came out and showed us that the outlook around housing is continuing to deteriorate. we did see a pickup in terms of construction but when you take a look at the loan data, it tells us that chinese consumers are still not going out and purchasing properties as well. this really reinforces that concern about the outlwe did hee signals there from the china beige book, but a lot of economists and analysts are bearish here. >> analys
this comes from a new pboc survey. >> that's right, we got this one out from the pboc and it is a gauge of urban depositors surveys and reading through that it is about china reading the tea leaves on how consumers are feeling about prospects around income. what we actually saw around that latest sentiment index here is that it slipped further again so we are now at 49 point which tells us a lot of people in china are concerned about the outlook for their incomes and the latest survey...
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Jun 7, 2023
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of course it means the pboc has enough room. most analysts outside of china are hoping for more pboc support in june. there is definitely some space for the pboc to do targeted things like cutting the rrr in june but the bank has to contend multiple objectives. it has to stabilize the economy. and has to ensure that inflation is not too hot or too week. -- weak. now it has to consider financial risks that have been piling within the local governments fear. that's a lot of objectives to balance. -- government sphere. that's a lot of objectives to balance. the sign to lower the deposit rate is a signal they should be doing more targeted things. the rrr is a targeted measure. we are expecting to see more of that. shery: why haven't they done more? it's always been so targeted despite the fact that we are seeing this downside pressure on the economy. the fact that policymakers are also keeping this sort of modest about 5% growth target, does that mean they are not expecting to do much more than just rrr cuts? are we not going to see
of course it means the pboc has enough room. most analysts outside of china are hoping for more pboc support in june. there is definitely some space for the pboc to do targeted things like cutting the rrr in june but the bank has to contend multiple objectives. it has to stabilize the economy. and has to ensure that inflation is not too hot or too week. -- weak. now it has to consider financial risks that have been piling within the local governments fear. that's a lot of objectives to balance....
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Jun 11, 2023
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pboc may cut its policy rate as soon as this week. we watch rate decisions from the state bank of pakistan and the bank of taiwan. that's your week ahead. our next guest says the federal reserve tends to talk the market down when they see the mood getting ahead of itself. she suspects that could mean a hike this week. let's welcome hilary kramer from kramer capital research. we have seen the s&p 500 entering bull market territory together with a soft 600, the dax, the south korean kospi. it seems the mood is upbeat when it comes to risk assets. are you expecting a hawkish tone to come from this week's meeting? hilary: it all depends what happens with the cpi number prior anger -- prior to the meeting wednesday. the expectation is 4.4%. we are talking about inflation and whatever thing is costing for everyone. if for some reason we don't see rates increase this month, and no one is expecting it. everybody is thinking we will not have a rate increase, but it's definitely on the table for next month, it's coming. because we are getting a
pboc may cut its policy rate as soon as this week. we watch rate decisions from the state bank of pakistan and the bank of taiwan. that's your week ahead. our next guest says the federal reserve tends to talk the market down when they see the mood getting ahead of itself. she suspects that could mean a hike this week. let's welcome hilary kramer from kramer capital research. we have seen the s&p 500 entering bull market territory together with a soft 600, the dax, the south korean kospi. it...
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Jun 29, 2023
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haslinda: weakness in the yuan is prompting the pboc to fix the currency higher than anticipated for the third time this week. more than 300 bps there is speculation that perhaps the pboc will use other tools to prop up the currency. of course this is a story of how investors are losing interest in the economy, that is continuing to weaken further. the miracle growth story, no longer there. of course it is also about the yen inching ever closer to 145. prompting speculation of intervention. we heard from governor ueda are pushing back on any tweaks in i.c.c.. not happening anytime soon. breaking away from the other central bankers. the pulse divergence driving the yen weaker. in the broader market, we are seeing -- pretty flat plain terms of the stock market. pushing back perhaps on the hawkishness from the central bankers in sintra. rishaad: just to get back to the yuan story, we are at levels not seen since the third of november. really strong dollar and also inadequate set stimulus measures compounding a disappointing reopening rebound. this is weighing on equity returns. six -- w
haslinda: weakness in the yuan is prompting the pboc to fix the currency higher than anticipated for the third time this week. more than 300 bps there is speculation that perhaps the pboc will use other tools to prop up the currency. of course this is a story of how investors are losing interest in the economy, that is continuing to weaken further. the miracle growth story, no longer there. of course it is also about the yen inching ever closer to 145. prompting speculation of intervention. we...
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Jun 15, 2023
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raising up by 50 basis points for the pboc but they cut their one-year ml off by 10 basis points. adding 30 billion yuan in liquidity. that is a surprise from australia, a massive beat, more than 70,000 went estimates were just for 17,000. lots to digest. the msci under pressure down .03%. look at where we are in terms of this chinese asset, we have stocks up but the yuan and bonds down. the yuan was already low before the data came in and this is a function of the strong dollar. speaking of the strong dollar, we are seeing weakness in the aussie dollar currently down 1/10 of 1%. but it has recovered somewhat from the lows. it was down .04% on the back of the strong jobs data suggesting that the rba will tighten further. in terms of the market we are keeping an eye on the ball -- aussie bond market, we have a case we have not seen since 2008, 8 reflection of the asportation of bond they. >> and also china there and indeed we have that 10 basis points cut in the medium-term. that -- does that move the needle at all, we will find out. that was also a confirmation of the inherent wea
raising up by 50 basis points for the pboc but they cut their one-year ml off by 10 basis points. adding 30 billion yuan in liquidity. that is a surprise from australia, a massive beat, more than 70,000 went estimates were just for 17,000. lots to digest. the msci under pressure down .03%. look at where we are in terms of this chinese asset, we have stocks up but the yuan and bonds down. the yuan was already low before the data came in and this is a function of the strong dollar. speaking of...
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Jun 12, 2023
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what are you expected from the pob -- pboc decision? >> because of the week economy and week inflation, we have seen it last week. >> at the same time as i mentioned, we have this warning about the property market. how does that tie into this? what sort of support might we expect if things worsen in the property sector? >> many people are expecting authorities to give further support to the property sector. it is not enough to support the whole property sector. we need to help the developers get out of financially stressful conditions. there was a boy or a soft landing in the property market. >> from a global view, the geopolitics, all of that has translated into a you want that hit its weakest this year versus the dollar. is that the likely trend to continue? is there anything that can make us change and pivot momentum? >> i think the conditions are still looking at further weakness in the you want. the next step of the fed could change this because now people are expecting the fed to stop the pause. this could -- if china can give mor
what are you expected from the pob -- pboc decision? >> because of the week economy and week inflation, we have seen it last week. >> at the same time as i mentioned, we have this warning about the property market. how does that tie into this? what sort of support might we expect if things worsen in the property sector? >> many people are expecting authorities to give further support to the property sector. it is not enough to support the whole property sector. we need to help...
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Jun 13, 2023
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this comes ahead of the pboc's --. seven of 16 economists expect a reduction in the one year mlf rate. jp morgan has agreed to pay to 90 million dollars to settle a lawsuit alleging it knowingly benefited from sex trafficking by former client jeffrey epstein. the bank says the agreement in principle would settle a class action filed last year by an unnamed victim. a source says the bank will not admit liability. jp morgan says its association with epstein was a mistake it regrets. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken says the trump administration was slow to counter chinese spying overseas after discovering that beijing had been operating a spy facility in cuba since 2019. he says the past administration was aware beijing was expanding its intelligence efforts and failed to slow it down. the white house has acknowledged chinese facilities in cuba capable of spying on southeastern parts of the u.s. coming up, back to the tech story. we are hearing intel could be an anchor in a chips designer in the u.k. that is next.
this comes ahead of the pboc's --. seven of 16 economists expect a reduction in the one year mlf rate. jp morgan has agreed to pay to 90 million dollars to settle a lawsuit alleging it knowingly benefited from sex trafficking by former client jeffrey epstein. the bank says the agreement in principle would settle a class action filed last year by an unnamed victim. a source says the bank will not admit liability. jp morgan says its association with epstein was a mistake it regrets. u.s....
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Jun 12, 2023
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pboc is meeting this week so we will get another indication of how chinese policymakers are feeling about the economy. on the flipside if you look longer term five years down the track, idiosyncratic stories going on. indonesia and china china get up the hive commodity value change. reforms in india. it is a structurally positive story going on in the next decade. india is probably 15 years behind china so pension funds have put money into infrastructure and apple and samsung developing and building the smartphones and exporting them around the world. talk they are looking to increase electronics production. so there is a structural story going on within emerging markets. it depends on the timeframe you are looking at. next week we could have an issue depending on how cpi comes out and u.s. inflation data comes out but in the next five years or longer, you want to have money in emerging markets. shery: tara, matt just talked about india and the structural positive stories in that market. what do you think of india? i have heard mixed comments, whether it is too expensive or not the right
pboc is meeting this week so we will get another indication of how chinese policymakers are feeling about the economy. on the flipside if you look longer term five years down the track, idiosyncratic stories going on. indonesia and china china get up the hive commodity value change. reforms in india. it is a structurally positive story going on in the next decade. india is probably 15 years behind china so pension funds have put money into infrastructure and apple and samsung developing and...
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Jun 16, 2023
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shery: we finally got the pboc's cut of the one year rate. how strong are the signals overall that they are really shifting towards more stimulus and support for the economy? david: in our view, we think if a signal in fact is stronger than the actual effect from the rate cut, because we think the 10 bp rate cut can only lift china's gdp by 0.1% this year. you will see this is not a big step in easing, but yes we see the pboc is shifting toward a more supportive stance. i think that is the most important information to the market. overall we think this can help the economy, but to risk to get the economy on track we have more to do. shery: david with more on china's economy. and that hope, or signals that we are seeing about a broad package of stimulus measures to boost the economy, well, that is providing a break to china's dollar junk bond market after months of pressure. our bonds and loans reporter joins us in hong kong with the latest. we are talking about this junk bond market which is dominated by property developers. what are we seein
shery: we finally got the pboc's cut of the one year rate. how strong are the signals overall that they are really shifting towards more stimulus and support for the economy? david: in our view, we think if a signal in fact is stronger than the actual effect from the rate cut, because we think the 10 bp rate cut can only lift china's gdp by 0.1% this year. you will see this is not a big step in easing, but yes we see the pboc is shifting toward a more supportive stance. i think that is the most...
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Jun 26, 2023
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eli: the pboc is juggling a lot of balls right now. the one hand, a weaker yuan would help, but you do not want to depreciate too fast. right now against the u.s. dollar does look like it is doing too much too fast. there are stepping back now, but at the back of their minds, they are thinking a weaker yuan is not too bad for us right now. haslinda: what do you do with china? the problem is in the property sector as it is not doing too well. eli: two thoughts here. one is what is happening right now versus expectations. we saw bullishness on the reopening came. a lot of houses moving their forecast for chinese growth up, and we are seeing that faltering. so it is weaker versus expectations, and secondly a lot of week sentiment regarding the market. you have got u.s. china tensions right now and the concern is an incremental approach from tiny policymakers is not going to address it -- from monetary policy makers is not going to address it. rishaad: not really addressing the core issues which include property and not doing enough there
eli: the pboc is juggling a lot of balls right now. the one hand, a weaker yuan would help, but you do not want to depreciate too fast. right now against the u.s. dollar does look like it is doing too much too fast. there are stepping back now, but at the back of their minds, they are thinking a weaker yuan is not too bad for us right now. haslinda: what do you do with china? the problem is in the property sector as it is not doing too well. eli: two thoughts here. one is what is happening...
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Jun 26, 2023
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downside for the yuan and the divergence in terms of policy operators and lessee response from the pboc versus the fed and other major central banks. yuan the lowest level in seven months despite the fix. the asian session just down about 1/10 of 1%. mainland chinese markets back after the holiday. brent, three tens of all percent after the news from russia over the weekend, you also saw a 4% drop brent last week. today, getting 3/10 of a percent. we will dive into that story in the second half of the show and get analysis. spot gold still below 2000. let's see how futures are shaping up with the context that u.s. markets had the worst week since march last week. european stocks off about 2%. is this part of a sustained downturn? there is the yield story, 4.72 at the front end. european yields, yield inversion the most pronounced in decades as money moved in the long and on the bets that there is increasing risk of recession. a lackluster week for the single currency, for the year last week. inflation data out of the euro zone this week and any commentary from the ecb officials meeting
downside for the yuan and the divergence in terms of policy operators and lessee response from the pboc versus the fed and other major central banks. yuan the lowest level in seven months despite the fix. the asian session just down about 1/10 of 1%. mainland chinese markets back after the holiday. brent, three tens of all percent after the news from russia over the weekend, you also saw a 4% drop brent last week. today, getting 3/10 of a percent. we will dive into that story in the second half...
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Jun 30, 2023
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the pboc has been largely dormant, especially with covid, but we are seeing this come up but the markets are pushing back because we are not sure how robust the economic recovery is. you have to pmi data. manufacturing did not come up as much as we wanted. that prompt of expectations. all they have to step up there stimulus? that got optimism in the markets which is a very calm elated -- a very convoluted way. if you look at me last year, gold was something i was pessimistic about. it has held up better than i anticipated. but i am doubling down. i think gold is not behaving the way we think it is. sonali: you talk about svb but it is incredible the stunning rise you have seen in the s&p 500 over the last two quarters. it percent in the second quarter. even with the bank crises, what has got to give? >> a lot. if you look at the 60/40 portfolio, one is not telling the right thing. we have looked at this diversification as the go to for market volatility but right now, bonds and stocks are telling opposite things. bond traders have always predicted recessions before they happened. stocks
the pboc has been largely dormant, especially with covid, but we are seeing this come up but the markets are pushing back because we are not sure how robust the economic recovery is. you have to pmi data. manufacturing did not come up as much as we wanted. that prompt of expectations. all they have to step up there stimulus? that got optimism in the markets which is a very calm elated -- a very convoluted way. if you look at me last year, gold was something i was pessimistic about. it has held...
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Jun 28, 2023
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guy: the bank of japan was there, but the pboc was not. i am wondering if we start widening the lens a little bit, we talk about central banks being on the same page. clearly, the bank of japan is not on the same page as the bank of england, the ecb and the fed. are we going to end up in a situation where central banks elsewhere in the world are going to be having a significantly different monetary policy than those of the west end central banks and then the two cancel each other out? if the pboc starts dumping liquidity into the global system, what effect will that have? ven: in the case of talking about the boj, i think they are always going to be on a different inflation problem. dear trying to get inflation with real wages that are negative now, but the point is, how sustainable is that and are they going to get to 2% inflation? the boj is always going to stick out like a sore thumb in the g10 space, that is a given. in terms of china dumping liquidity into the markets, that is a different kettle of fish because the china economy has n
guy: the bank of japan was there, but the pboc was not. i am wondering if we start widening the lens a little bit, we talk about central banks being on the same page. clearly, the bank of japan is not on the same page as the bank of england, the ecb and the fed. are we going to end up in a situation where central banks elsewhere in the world are going to be having a significantly different monetary policy than those of the west end central banks and then the two cancel each other out? if the...
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Jun 14, 2023
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for that we have the ecb as well as the pboc. lots of central-bank action dominating the move said that we see in currency as well as bond markets this week. turn into bloomberg radio, you can hear more from the days big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from our team there. broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong make you can listen the app or bloombergradio.com. much more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: take a look at currencies trading at though to dollar fell towards a one month low. we are seeing the aussie at 68 u.s. cents. we have seen four sessions of gains already against the u.s. dollar. the commonwealth bank singing those interest rates differentials between australian and u.s. have become less negative. we could see more upside. q. week dollar under pressure at-the-money. this after we saw the new zealand economy contracting. we saw gains in the kiwi dollar being erased after the data was out a few minutes ago. we are watching the japanese yen surpassing the 140 level. we are at the six-month low agains
for that we have the ecb as well as the pboc. lots of central-bank action dominating the move said that we see in currency as well as bond markets this week. turn into bloomberg radio, you can hear more from the days big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from our team there. broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong make you can listen the app or bloombergradio.com. much more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: take a look at currencies trading at though to dollar fell towards a one...
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Jun 29, 2023
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dani: is the market also fighting the pboc? we had another stronger fix today -- vix today, looked at remnant be -- remnembi. kriti: pc hawkish rhetoric priced into these markets. eventually it becomes a negative thing. going back to my argument where, yes, you might see the inferential -- differentials for the foreseeable future. to s -- there is a point where it becomes a negative for sterling or vice versa for the euro. even for the dollar. that is the mentality you have to keep for the bond market. there is a point where the bond market, and you are seeing elements of that now, it does not necessarily follow the hawkish rhetoric you are seeing. take a look at the equity market and i have to disagree with ed. i don't think the equity market is writing off with the fed is doing. i think they are saying a lot of the repricing that is necessary for the hawkish rhetoric you are hearing -- the repricing that's happening in the fed swaps market and dollar positioning has already happened on the corporate level for a lot of compani
dani: is the market also fighting the pboc? we had another stronger fix today -- vix today, looked at remnant be -- remnembi. kriti: pc hawkish rhetoric priced into these markets. eventually it becomes a negative thing. going back to my argument where, yes, you might see the inferential -- differentials for the foreseeable future. to s -- there is a point where it becomes a negative for sterling or vice versa for the euro. even for the dollar. that is the mentality you have to keep for the bond...
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Jun 27, 2023
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i don't think the market will see the weakening trend is over, but the pboc wants to slow it down. lizzy: also perhaps worrying for investors in china, the news about social media. at a time when the investment outlook is deteriorating, china has banned a prominent finance writer from weibo -- i always want to pronounce it like it is german. this is a guy who has written best-selling books on tencent and china's economic transformation. valerie: -- dani: this guy had 4.7 million followers on the social media app and it is an app like china, as some degree it is increasingly harder for foreigners to get a clear picture. we are seeing authorities take steps to limit data access. valerie: are they trying to keep a lid on the situation, undo the crisis of confidence? will be interesting to see if they do more. dani: stocks with a big rally today. it seems like that or the fixing has done something. lizzy: i want to bring it back to the u.s., you've seen this mass exodus from dove assuages looking for fed rate cuts. this after the fed chair said the central bank is likely to resume tigh
i don't think the market will see the weakening trend is over, but the pboc wants to slow it down. lizzy: also perhaps worrying for investors in china, the news about social media. at a time when the investment outlook is deteriorating, china has banned a prominent finance writer from weibo -- i always want to pronounce it like it is german. this is a guy who has written best-selling books on tencent and china's economic transformation. valerie: -- dani: this guy had 4.7 million followers on...
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Jun 19, 2023
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we likely to -- give any cut in the one year rate we saw from the pboc earlier. not surprising, sykes regionally came out and said the chinese yuan will probably continue to decline given week growth, policy support momentum. goldman expecting dollar you want to be around 7.1 and 6.9 over the 3-6, 12 month. . it is a change from previous estimates. >> their vision down for second-quarter gdp had -- their vision down for second quarter gdp growth. growth target when it comes to the third quarter. potentially seeing that impact of whatever stimulus package we do get. there were reports state council might looking at discussing the packages of stimulus last week. we continue to watch out for that but we are starting to see that having a risk off for markets price at the moment. will watch best stories. -- we will continue watch best stories. bloomberg described in get that under terminals available on the mobile anywhere. you can customize the settings. get news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪ did you know you can get someone
we likely to -- give any cut in the one year rate we saw from the pboc earlier. not surprising, sykes regionally came out and said the chinese yuan will probably continue to decline given week growth, policy support momentum. goldman expecting dollar you want to be around 7.1 and 6.9 over the 3-6, 12 month. . it is a change from previous estimates. >> their vision down for second-quarter gdp had -- their vision down for second quarter gdp growth. growth target when it comes to the third...
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Jun 27, 2023
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we are seeing the case with the pboc saying on the easier monetary path. how to -- not to mention the bank of japan. are there any opportunities where you see rate differentials making sense not only in ems but broader advanced economies? >> absolutely. rates are still hard to predict. but we are on a path of higher rates for longer our fed has been pretty hawkish in the last couple of weeks, especially with -- we are still far from our inflation targets. we are expecting another to quarter-point hikes. a lot of that will get priced into the market. investors are looking beyond where rates are in trying to invest more for longer term. shery: dollar trajectory? >> in the u.s. dollar of course. we absolutely think there are better currencies, japanese yen, the swiss franc, there's a lot of other currencies, if you're looking for currencies. the dollar is going to be -- is one of the areas that will weaken. shery: good to have you with us. financial advisor and managing director at ubs. you can get a round up of all the stories in today's edition of daybreak
we are seeing the case with the pboc saying on the easier monetary path. how to -- not to mention the bank of japan. are there any opportunities where you see rate differentials making sense not only in ems but broader advanced economies? >> absolutely. rates are still hard to predict. but we are on a path of higher rates for longer our fed has been pretty hawkish in the last couple of weeks, especially with -- we are still far from our inflation targets. we are expecting another to...
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Jun 22, 2023
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it is not quite the same extreme as pboc, but ultimately these can have different effects. in the case of china, because of the stress of -- assets, it could ignite outflow risks in the region. whereas the boj, counterintuitively because of the cheaper yen, may fuel cheaper trades. they actually support. we are not exactly clear on the effects of it, but certainly the divergence will become clearer and the reality is that when we come closer to hitting peak rates and hot lending risks, the argument is that divergence should be greater. shery: let's talk about china and's exuberance we have been hearing from investors about perhaps this china stimulus coming. given the uncertainty we have faced with the chinese economy interns of regulatory crackdowns , is this a little misguided? >> it is, for many reasons. our short memories tell us that china can get back to credit stimulus. we already have concerns about financial stability. [indiscernible] because of the regulatory uncertainty, and certainly not being done with the property market, including my interests so far in prope
it is not quite the same extreme as pboc, but ultimately these can have different effects. in the case of china, because of the stress of -- assets, it could ignite outflow risks in the region. whereas the boj, counterintuitively because of the cheaper yen, may fuel cheaper trades. they actually support. we are not exactly clear on the effects of it, but certainly the divergence will become clearer and the reality is that when we come closer to hitting peak rates and hot lending risks, the...
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Jun 28, 2023
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not pushback from the pboc. not just the chinese currency. indonesia is shot today. lots of data to get through today. yvonne: dollar china is getting closer back to seven .24 levels. basically erasing gains that we saw in the last two days that we saw that from the pboc and it shows how quickly the traders are losing faith from regulator's on maybe having a tighter grip on markets. ozzie inflation was the big one. 5.6%. most economists were expecting a six handle on that print. it may move the needle. maybe it is enough for them or for the rba to take a bit of a pause and reprice some of the hawkish tightening and repricing we have seen from traders. david: it is difficult because we are getting to a point the tightening cycle you are getting inflation starting to listen and australia is a good example of that. but i will mention the u.s. data. we are getting data from south korea where you had a 13 month high of consumer confidence there. retail sales are exhilarating further to underscore that point. 5.7% in these are discount stores. 1.7% and then you take the in
not pushback from the pboc. not just the chinese currency. indonesia is shot today. lots of data to get through today. yvonne: dollar china is getting closer back to seven .24 levels. basically erasing gains that we saw in the last two days that we saw that from the pboc and it shows how quickly the traders are losing faith from regulator's on maybe having a tighter grip on markets. ozzie inflation was the big one. 5.6%. most economists were expecting a six handle on that print. it may move the...
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Jun 30, 2023
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the pboc will try to tweak the speed but nothing says to me that they are perturbed by it or it is not being driven by capital flight. that is important. this is a purely policy driven move in the r&d. dani: for those who said 75 was the level and they will do major policy shift -- that is all we have time for. thank you so much for joining. enjoy your weekend. stephen gallo, fx strategist at bank of montreal. coming up, nike fails to impress their investors. we will bring you the top line from that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899. plus, free home delivery when you add an adjustable base. shop now only at sleep number. dani: volkswagen has replaced the ceo of their brand audi. -- will take over leadership of the label in september. happens is the carmaker is trying to keep up with the electric car race. we got into the story earlier. questions from u.s. politicians over work with the yuan project. the state backed the bank of china on being relatively low-key. bloomberg understands that the bank received a phone call from a republi
the pboc will try to tweak the speed but nothing says to me that they are perturbed by it or it is not being driven by capital flight. that is important. this is a purely policy driven move in the r&d. dani: for those who said 75 was the level and they will do major policy shift -- that is all we have time for. thank you so much for joining. enjoy your weekend. stephen gallo, fx strategist at bank of montreal. coming up, nike fails to impress their investors. we will bring you the top line...
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Jun 7, 2023
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in the system but it's still a bit as you say that we could expect further easing measures for the pboc over the coming months. shery: let's get over to vonnie quinn. >> the new york mayor has told residents they should stay inside or wear masks outdoors as smoke from canadian wildfires blankets the city. the faa recorded flight delays in the area. justin trudeau says canada is living through the worst wildfire season and reported history. china is the biggest factor driving oil prices so says the iea. opec-plus agreed last weekend to extend production cuts to the end of 2024 with saudi arabia taking in extra barrels off the market. >> there are uncertainties as usual when it comes to the oil markets and if i have to pick up the most important one, it is china. chinese economy. when i say more than 2 million barrels this year oil global oil demand, 60% of that growth is said to come from china. >> wennberg has learned that the proposed deal between liv golf and the pga is causing serious antitrust concerns. u.s. senate democrats are calling for investigation citing competition issues an
in the system but it's still a bit as you say that we could expect further easing measures for the pboc over the coming months. shery: let's get over to vonnie quinn. >> the new york mayor has told residents they should stay inside or wear masks outdoors as smoke from canadian wildfires blankets the city. the faa recorded flight delays in the area. justin trudeau says canada is living through the worst wildfire season and reported history. china is the biggest factor driving oil prices so...
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Jun 23, 2023
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we are seeing weakness in the chinese yuan, we are wondering how comfortable pboc is when it comes to you on weakness. weakness as well for the malaysian ringgit, the lowest level in about seven months. the story is in the bond market. rishaad: i want to have a look at what is happening there. global stocks, we are having the worst week for them in three months, since march. the biggest loser is hong kong, 2% drop by traders playing catch-up, the holiday thursday. they're concerned that if even china provides a more stimulus, it will not have a major impact on the markets. if it seems like we will end the week down. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh >> the following is a paid program. the opinions and views expressed do not reflect those of bloomberg lp, its affiliates, or its employees. >> the following is a paid presentation furnished by rare
we are seeing weakness in the chinese yuan, we are wondering how comfortable pboc is when it comes to you on weakness. weakness as well for the malaysian ringgit, the lowest level in about seven months. the story is in the bond market. rishaad: i want to have a look at what is happening there. global stocks, we are having the worst week for them in three months, since march. the biggest loser is hong kong, 2% drop by traders playing catch-up, the holiday thursday. they're concerned that if even...
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Jun 8, 2023
06/23
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the head of the pboc talked about financing. nothing earth shadowing -- shattering but he shared his view of the outlook for u.s. dollar strength, which is interesting. he said the u.s. dollar strength is nearing its end. it's unsustainable because the u.s. hiking cycle is almost over. and citing third-party heading into a match. that offers a rare glimpse into the chinese regulatory thinking. and that will signal -- the current level. shery: does that mean they will not intervene to support the yuan when it has fallen? what does that mean because the divergence has pressured the chinese currency. >> that's a good question. people are expecting china to lower the interest rates in the near term because it's not in good shape. the export numbers released earlier this week was horrible. china's exports to major markets including europe, the u.s. and japan and southeast asia, they fell more than 20%. inflation data to be announced showing week price power. that is based on the estimates of economists. so anyway, people are expectin
the head of the pboc talked about financing. nothing earth shadowing -- shattering but he shared his view of the outlook for u.s. dollar strength, which is interesting. he said the u.s. dollar strength is nearing its end. it's unsustainable because the u.s. hiking cycle is almost over. and citing third-party heading into a match. that offers a rare glimpse into the chinese regulatory thinking. and that will signal -- the current level. shery: does that mean they will not intervene to support...
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Jun 29, 2023
06/23
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what can the pboc do next to support the yuan? they have quite a few tools in their arsenal. >> that's correct. they will do what they've done last year, firstly they would have to signal for a stronger fixing, yesterday we had the largest deviation since last november. that has to continue to send a message to the market that the people want a stable if not stronger yen instead of a weaker yen. the next tool, they could cut the ratio down to 5% which was the level before 2021 so that could release more dollar liquidity and support the yuan. two sort of slow capital outflows. shery: what would be the outlook for dollar yuan going forward? >> the level we are looking at, the high we reach last year, and it's more difficult this year because last year everybody was expecting a rate and we are still not there yet. higher for longer is still not well priced in the market. in terms of the dollar is probably going to have to rise a little bit more and that will hurt the yuan. last year we still had the fear that -- now we've seen it has
what can the pboc do next to support the yuan? they have quite a few tools in their arsenal. >> that's correct. they will do what they've done last year, firstly they would have to signal for a stronger fixing, yesterday we had the largest deviation since last november. that has to continue to send a message to the market that the people want a stable if not stronger yen instead of a weaker yen. the next tool, they could cut the ratio down to 5% which was the level before 2021 so that...
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Jun 25, 2023
06/23
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the data could reinforce the case for stronger policy support from the pboc in the second half of the year. industrial output numbers from singapore retail sales figures from japan and australia. pans jobless rate. we'll be watching two major global conferences this week. the ecb form where many leaders will gather. the summer davos convening in china. pakistan making changes to its budget to appease imf concerns ahead of a june 30 deadline to revive its bailout program. that is your week ahead. haidi: these latest developments in russia are adding fresh geopolitical risks to global growth. let's discuss what that means for asian economies. our chief asia correspondent joins us. if nothing else the weekend tells us how these black swan events or grey swan events do add further complications to what is already a difficult growth environment for the region. >> good morning. that is true. it has already been a difficult growth environment. we have come off the reopening phase in of the fundamentals are kicking in which are the dislocations that have taken place due to covid. the hit that
the data could reinforce the case for stronger policy support from the pboc in the second half of the year. industrial output numbers from singapore retail sales figures from japan and australia. pans jobless rate. we'll be watching two major global conferences this week. the ecb form where many leaders will gather. the summer davos convening in china. pakistan making changes to its budget to appease imf concerns ahead of a june 30 deadline to revive its bailout program. that is your week...
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Jun 5, 2023
06/23
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bring us pivoting, is there a policy risk for the pboc if they do not act more aggressively in china? do we get to a point where policy makers stop nibbling around the edges of targeted measures and have to go big for china? that is a really hard one. they set out the target for this year at 5%. that is easily achievable given the 2022 growth at 3%. it is making us think they do not have that sense of urgency to go big to come to the rescue of the economy that is showing signs of slowing down with momentum plateauing out. that is indeed a risk to our growth target this year. we recently lowered our china growth target for 2023 from slightly above 6% to slightly below 6% as we are getting anxious in terms of how serious they are about coming to the rescue of the economy. they have fiscal policy space and monetary policy space. they are not going big perhaps learning from 2010. alix: what has gone big is demand for luxury. there was a huge premium to be paid for european luxury sucks because of china reopening. is that done? do you think if there is targeted stimulus that trade still mi
bring us pivoting, is there a policy risk for the pboc if they do not act more aggressively in china? do we get to a point where policy makers stop nibbling around the edges of targeted measures and have to go big for china? that is a really hard one. they set out the target for this year at 5%. that is easily achievable given the 2022 growth at 3%. it is making us think they do not have that sense of urgency to go big to come to the rescue of the economy that is showing signs of slowing down...
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Jun 28, 2023
06/23
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the pboc did say they are fixing a little bit stronger, but compared to last year, this is nothing. yesterday or the day before -- last year, we consistently had more than 500 pips stronger signal. it seems to me there is much more room to run in the chinese market. shery: we have been watching the euro as well, holding at that 1.09 level. the ecb vice president saying another interest rate increase in july is all but assured. but the outcome of the following meetings remains unclear. >> i think the msh was good. we are not done. there is more ground to be covered. >> what happens for future interest rate hikes? i know you are data-dependent. i know september is a question mark, but given the data points we have now, are you just going to go ahead and hike? let's what are the factors -- >> what are the factors that are going to determine what will happen in september? it depends on how the tightening financial conditions fit through . in september we will have a new round of predictions, and then core inflation. these are the elements we will take into consideration. >> do you belie
the pboc did say they are fixing a little bit stronger, but compared to last year, this is nothing. yesterday or the day before -- last year, we consistently had more than 500 pips stronger signal. it seems to me there is much more room to run in the chinese market. shery: we have been watching the euro as well, holding at that 1.09 level. the ecb vice president saying another interest rate increase in july is all but assured. but the outcome of the following meetings remains unclear. >>...
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Jun 8, 2023
06/23
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a sign of a weak demand coming through in china, and perhaps telling us the pboc is one of the central banks we are watching, could drink borrowing costs lower to stimulant the economy. -- could bring borrowing costs lower to stimulate the economy. >> some of the world's largest investment banks are distancing themselves from hedge fund manager crispin oh day. j.p. morgan and goldman sachs are said to be reviewing their links with odey as management. the law firm rep scenting him has told he disputes the allegations published in the report. president biden and u.k. prime minister rishi sunak have agreed to start work on critical materials agreement. it could help reduce our makers qualify for electric car subsidies and speed the joint element of advanced evans. biden and sunak -- discussed boosting supply chains and collaboration on ai, quantum computing and semiconductors. the biden administration is said to be proposing to trade allies that they extend a planned freeze on digital tax services. it is not yet been implemented or endorsed by congress. the u.s. treasury official tells bl
a sign of a weak demand coming through in china, and perhaps telling us the pboc is one of the central banks we are watching, could drink borrowing costs lower to stimulant the economy. -- could bring borrowing costs lower to stimulate the economy. >> some of the world's largest investment banks are distancing themselves from hedge fund manager crispin oh day. j.p. morgan and goldman sachs are said to be reviewing their links with odey as management. the law firm rep scenting him has told...
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Jun 18, 2023
06/23
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central-bank action expected and china's central banks expected to cut their lpr on the back of the pboc move and some extent -- and expecting some inflation rates. hearing from fed chair powell this week as well. here are some of the things we are watching. coming up we speak with wells fargo and they take on inflation and stabilization. and we will talk about investing in china with eurasia group. ♪
central-bank action expected and china's central banks expected to cut their lpr on the back of the pboc move and some extent -- and expecting some inflation rates. hearing from fed chair powell this week as well. here are some of the things we are watching. coming up we speak with wells fargo and they take on inflation and stabilization. and we will talk about investing in china with eurasia group. ♪
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Jun 16, 2023
06/23
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the pboc moves in a technical sense very narrow but people are enthusiastic that this suggests a broader policy shift underway within the official family. once expectations have been created, under delivery can be perilous. dani: thank you very much, daniel moss, our bloomberg opinion columnist. breaking news on micron, nearing a $1 billion investment in a chip packaging plant in india, according to people with knowledge of the matter speaking to bloomberg. this is happening at a time or u.s. tensions with china are picking up. china earlier last month barred micron chips in an escalation of the u.s. tech clash. we will keep an eye on that as this story develops. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: former u.s. secretary of state, henry kissinger, is warning that china would end up in a military conflict with the u.s. over taiwan. speaking to bloomberg's editor-in-chief, john micklethwait, he says he holds out hope for dialogue that will lead to the escalation. >> the undercurrent of relations , i think some military conflict is probable. but i also think relations must be altered, and there hav
the pboc moves in a technical sense very narrow but people are enthusiastic that this suggests a broader policy shift underway within the official family. once expectations have been created, under delivery can be perilous. dani: thank you very much, daniel moss, our bloomberg opinion columnist. breaking news on micron, nearing a $1 billion investment in a chip packaging plant in india, according to people with knowledge of the matter speaking to bloomberg. this is happening at a time or u.s....
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Jun 27, 2023
06/23
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pboc bumped for a second date. we talked about the yen intervention. guy: when is the big stimulus story start to develop in china? we want to go back to raising rates. stay up there before the cuts finally come in. >> it is unlikely that in the near future, the central bank will be able to state with full confidence that the peak rates have been reached. bearing a material change to our expectations, we will continue to increase rates in july. alix: there is no mistaking that hawkish stance. it brings us to the question of the day, our central banks hiking to a peak or to a plateau? it looked like she was trying to price out any cuts. we are joined by simon white. what do you think? is it a plateau or a peek at this point? >> listening to the president and listening to all the policymakers we've spoken to over the past two days, they are definitely heading for the plateau. that has to do with the fact that inflation is still uncomfortably high. a lot of policy tightening is needed. it will take time for the past rate kites we've seen. the plan is keep
pboc bumped for a second date. we talked about the yen intervention. guy: when is the big stimulus story start to develop in china? we want to go back to raising rates. stay up there before the cuts finally come in. >> it is unlikely that in the near future, the central bank will be able to state with full confidence that the peak rates have been reached. bearing a material change to our expectations, we will continue to increase rates in july. alix: there is no mistaking that hawkish...