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Apr 29, 2024
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i think the signs in the oven is .2 strong suspicions that the doj and the mof were in the market. they have done so given the pressure that the committee has been under of late. the fact that they needed to do something in order to bolster their credibility somewhat having made so many noises and threats over recent weeks and even gone to washington dc. it felt like there was definitely an opportunity to spot something of a reversal that. the sentiment is that in order to keep these levels, it will require more, it will not be a woman done exercise. >> we have been hearing from japan past ethics chief. we will take appropriate action and we will disclose the results at the end of next month. we will get confirmation. let's talk a little bit about what has been going on in u.s. markets as well. really stronger earnings season. this has what has been driving. there are two things going on. not just the fed's decision but also the funding announcements. they could push up those yields again and have those cross market reverberations in terms of strengthening the dollar and the pressu
i think the signs in the oven is .2 strong suspicions that the doj and the mof were in the market. they have done so given the pressure that the committee has been under of late. the fact that they needed to do something in order to bolster their credibility somewhat having made so many noises and threats over recent weeks and even gone to washington dc. it felt like there was definitely an opportunity to spot something of a reversal that. the sentiment is that in order to keep these levels, it...
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Apr 24, 2024
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i think that the mof will be very reluctant to intervene. they want to keep verbal intervention because they know if they come in, it matters for a few days or so but ultimately the world will go come you given us better levels to sell the yen. that is holding them back from action rather than words. you are right. ultimately, the trend for higher u.s. yields has more to go. where is the growth slowed down? where is the deflationary trend? there's no justification at the moment. there's nothing obvious for why the fed would cut rates at the moment. overall, there is room for u.s. yields to move higher, putting pressure on dollar-yen. therefore, this is the weaker intervention risk is a risk only because the bank of japan meeting. this is not the week where people want to belong dollar-yen which is why discretionary traders are standing aside. if we get through the week without intervention, they will pile in next week either way. people are going to push dollar-yen higher next week. it's just what we push it from. paul: on the subject of pil
i think that the mof will be very reluctant to intervene. they want to keep verbal intervention because they know if they come in, it matters for a few days or so but ultimately the world will go come you given us better levels to sell the yen. that is holding them back from action rather than words. you are right. ultimately, the trend for higher u.s. yields has more to go. where is the growth slowed down? where is the deflationary trend? there's no justification at the moment. there's nothing...
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Apr 12, 2024
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haslinda: when do you see mof moving? >> everyone is now talking about 155, which you can put as much stock into as you want because everyone was talking about 150 and 152, and it did not happen. i think they are a little bit wary of moving at this level, given the jpy has been driven more by u.s. 10-year rather than anything domestically, but certainly, this level is much weaker than what they would like on the jpy. when they significantly moved in october 2022, there was obviously a very sharp appreciation, but with the u.s. 10-year moving higher, we were kind of back to the same levels as we were before the intervention. i think they are very wary about when they actually move, but i think it will probably be coming relatively soon. >> i want to ask you about china, australia. the relationship has improved recently with a final tariff on winds lifting. are you look at any time -- are you looking at any china exposed stocks in australia? any china exposed stocks in australia as a place to invest? >> not really australia
haslinda: when do you see mof moving? >> everyone is now talking about 155, which you can put as much stock into as you want because everyone was talking about 150 and 152, and it did not happen. i think they are a little bit wary of moving at this level, given the jpy has been driven more by u.s. 10-year rather than anything domestically, but certainly, this level is much weaker than what they would like on the jpy. when they significantly moved in october 2022, there was obviously a...
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Apr 30, 2024
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that is getting in the danger zone if the mof and the boj doesn't address the issue. i think it has gone beyond just high external weights. it is becoming a local issue, but they have to improve the real interest rates of japan. haslinda: what are your conviction calls for 2024? >> right now it is still along the aussie against the swiss franc. for us to find a funding currency with lower volatility, the swiss franc is attractive. we have the cutting cycle in june followed by september. speculative condition is getting rich. it is difficult to find an alternative. long aussie there are fundamentals and play. it is a stronger economy, tight labor market. rba is cutting in february next year according to the forecast. i think this currency can withstand dollar strength in the near term. haslinda: in terms of best carry trade for 2024. >> carry trade wise, short-term, the yen remains on the back foot. i would not try to chase it much weaker given that we are hitting holds. beside the first -- swiss franc, on a local basis we like the taiwan dollar. as i mentioned before,
that is getting in the danger zone if the mof and the boj doesn't address the issue. i think it has gone beyond just high external weights. it is becoming a local issue, but they have to improve the real interest rates of japan. haslinda: what are your conviction calls for 2024? >> right now it is still along the aussie against the swiss franc. for us to find a funding currency with lower volatility, the swiss franc is attractive. we have the cutting cycle in june followed by september....
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Apr 26, 2024
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. >> it's coming down to mof instead of boj. they talk about the impact of the weaker yen and inflation hires so they may imply a rate hike, but it doesn't mean they would admit to fx intervention. they would probably say they are watching the market. they would not tell you today explicitly what they are going to do. paul: bloomberg intelligence chief fx and reit's editor steven chu. let's go to ed gomes at s gmc capital. we've heard plenty of words in defense of the yen and no real action so to speak as yet. do you anticipate anything in terms of tougher rhetoric to defend the yen from the bank of japan today? >> i don't think rhetoric will cut it anymore to the extent that they had to talk. they were talking around 152 about two or three weeks ago. a lot of chatter out of the boj and ministry of finance. that is not going to work anymore. keep in mind the forward expectations one year forward for rates about 30 basis points higher for japanese yields in the u.s. has seen a collapse from seven cuts down to maybe one. you still
. >> it's coming down to mof instead of boj. they talk about the impact of the weaker yen and inflation hires so they may imply a rate hike, but it doesn't mean they would admit to fx intervention. they would probably say they are watching the market. they would not tell you today explicitly what they are going to do. paul: bloomberg intelligence chief fx and reit's editor steven chu. let's go to ed gomes at s gmc capital. we've heard plenty of words in defense of the yen and no real...
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Apr 18, 2024
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i think the boj and the mof are trying to create that narrative where there is a disconnect in the fundamentals which would give them a reason to intervene. and they have got that tacit approval out of the g7 when candidate said everybody was on board for me g7 per if. but as far as asia is concerned i think it is going to have to come from the ministry of finance. but maybe not until the end of the year. we heard overnight two fed speakers, bostick just said we see the first rate cut not until the end of the year, and kashkari said it is plausible the fed might not cut at all this year. that puts the ministry of finance's plans in a bit of a wreck. especially if they were to say that. and maybe they are shoring up the market. that the dollar is still going to be pretty warm, if not hot. annabelle: it is interesting because i am also wondering how much you think that they are really concerned by the weak yen. one of the impacts of it of course is that it could implant -- impact because of high costs. we had inflation data pretty much in line with estimates. a little softer. so if we see inflati
i think the boj and the mof are trying to create that narrative where there is a disconnect in the fundamentals which would give them a reason to intervene. and they have got that tacit approval out of the g7 when candidate said everybody was on board for me g7 per if. but as far as asia is concerned i think it is going to have to come from the ministry of finance. but maybe not until the end of the year. we heard overnight two fed speakers, bostick just said we see the first rate cut not until...