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Mar 4, 2024
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investors watching jerome powell for jobs data in the china mpca. let's look at what we are getting we are stocks have pulled off session highs. seeing a rally in bonds, but in order for this to climb, we have seen a floor. they want to see structural reforms and policy consistency. let's look at the real estate sector, the pain point for china. despite those sales surging, properties are down and that is a sign of bonds being down. talking to lenders to defer payments. this will figure strongly in the annual gathering. tom: thank you very much indeed. a big week for china. unveiling strategies, but li qiang will not the holding a press briefing. bloomberg's stephen engle joins us. a surprise move by the premier. what are you reading into it? >> this is the one time we can get into tiananmen square. it's the one time you can hear legislators. tomorrow is the political advisory body to the national people's congress and they are gathering. we are getting busloads of delegates coming in. the biggest challenge is the economy, externally in internally.
investors watching jerome powell for jobs data in the china mpca. let's look at what we are getting we are stocks have pulled off session highs. seeing a rally in bonds, but in order for this to climb, we have seen a floor. they want to see structural reforms and policy consistency. let's look at the real estate sector, the pain point for china. despite those sales surging, properties are down and that is a sign of bonds being down. talking to lenders to defer payments. this will figure...
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Mar 20, 2024
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when jerome powell stands up at a press conference, he does not really push back against it. that will be the most hawkish outcome. the slightly less hawkish outcome was we would get the two dot plots production here. then they will see how dubberly pushes back. there are so rate cuts coming later in the year. nothing to worry about. the most of a scenario would be the dot plot stay at three rate cuts for this year and drum powell sounds dovish. closer not too far away from the november highs. they have an office in new york. they will be watching closely. you may will see some headlines coming out. the mistry of finance is pushing back and sing the dollar-yen is getting too far. they need to do something about it. if he goes even further, we may even have to see extra intervention to try to support this. probably nonverbal intervention first. certainly currency markets very much in play. euro-yen hit a 16 year high as well. treasury markets will also be watching very closely. people seem to be shorting treasuries very much. if there is a risk, it is short covering. slightly
when jerome powell stands up at a press conference, he does not really push back against it. that will be the most hawkish outcome. the slightly less hawkish outcome was we would get the two dot plots production here. then they will see how dubberly pushes back. there are so rate cuts coming later in the year. nothing to worry about. the most of a scenario would be the dot plot stay at three rate cuts for this year and drum powell sounds dovish. closer not too far away from the november highs....
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Mar 6, 2024
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and number of jerome powell's colleagues have downplayed that, they are able they say to look through that january data. are we expecting to get a similar message from powell in terms of the way he interprets that data? where are you expecting his messaging to land? jill: when you look at a lot of the statements that powell has made in relation to a lot of his fomc colleagues, he is actually really kind of in the middle of the pack so i would expect him to be sticking with that status quo and that idea that inflation remains under pressure, that cpi print in january was very hot. and as much as fed officials like to say they are incredibly data dependent, they like to depend on where that data is getting them to make decisions on rates. i think that beginning of the year data was, we will have to see what we are ultimately sing out february, march as they continue to create that rate trajectory for the rest of the quarter, rest of the first half of this year. i would expect powell to pretty much match what we heard from those fomc officials but maybe we will get further guidance next
and number of jerome powell's colleagues have downplayed that, they are able they say to look through that january data. are we expecting to get a similar message from powell in terms of the way he interprets that data? where are you expecting his messaging to land? jill: when you look at a lot of the statements that powell has made in relation to a lot of his fomc colleagues, he is actually really kind of in the middle of the pack so i would expect him to be sticking with that status quo and...
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Mar 8, 2024
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kriti: fed chair jerome powell telling congress the central bank is not far from the confidence needed to ease policy. right here in europe, ecb president christine lagarde signals the bank may cut rates in june. it warns tiempo -- geopolitical risks should not be ignored. i want to quick check on the markets. we've got the geopolitical situation coming up of -- off of president biden in his state of the union address overnight. what that means for futures is a little bit of positivity right here in europe. euro stoxx 50 future desire. ftse 100 higher. let's cross the atlantic where you are not seeing the same optimism. futures in the u.s. unchanged. 51 65 on the contracts. nasdaq 100 futures are down 1/10 of 1%. how much is a global story of not wanting the exposure to the house. how much is cashing out ahead of the long weekend with technicals plumbing at -- limiting at play. chairman powell did speak and testimony. you have the ecb dates you in the after facts. the bond market absolutely matters. they have been fairly sanguine as it looks to preclude how to navigate the story. tenur
kriti: fed chair jerome powell telling congress the central bank is not far from the confidence needed to ease policy. right here in europe, ecb president christine lagarde signals the bank may cut rates in june. it warns tiempo -- geopolitical risks should not be ignored. i want to quick check on the markets. we've got the geopolitical situation coming up of -- off of president biden in his state of the union address overnight. what that means for futures is a little bit of positivity right...
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Mar 26, 2024
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jerome powell was reinforcing the message of a coming down. we heard a few pieces of strong data. we are getting pushback. mr. bostic saying one cut is necessary this year. other saying not quite sure, maybe two, maybe three. we have loads of important data. the big one is the pce, which comes in at the end of the week. interestingly, the market reactions are that, could really be a bit large because it comes on a friday, most of the world is on holiday. u.s. bond market will be at subpar strength. the data will come out. phil -- then on monday, the market reaction could be quite large, especially early in asia. treasury futures will open with australia closed in other people out as well. the chances of a big reaction if you get a high number is ready large. traders are really quite cautious. it has been there for a record amount of time. everyone is dialing back a little bit. they are not as optimistic as they were just a week ago. tom: how times change and just the space of a week. owed on to your hand of that potential rupture when it comes through on friday. the market reactio
jerome powell was reinforcing the message of a coming down. we heard a few pieces of strong data. we are getting pushback. mr. bostic saying one cut is necessary this year. other saying not quite sure, maybe two, maybe three. we have loads of important data. the big one is the pce, which comes in at the end of the week. interestingly, the market reactions are that, could really be a bit large because it comes on a friday, most of the world is on holiday. u.s. bond market will be at subpar...
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Mar 28, 2024
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more fed speakers coming up in the next few days, jerome powell as well, but there is quite a bit of pushback already. last week we had the fomc and euphoria about the idea of rate cuts being three for this year, and there was a lot of dialing back in the meantime and we are about to go into the second quarter so there will be rethinking of investors. equities are good, u.s. dollar relatively strongly to bonds have been a good layer as well, yet here we are on the cusp of going into the second quarter and may be people have to dial back on some of these ideas as they rethink what the fed has to say. there is big data coming up including the pce, so by the weekend people have a lot to think about. might not be quite so optimistic as they were just a few days ago. tom: we will see if jay powell reiterates the line that he sees they are not far from having the confidence to cut, the line that came out from jay powell a couple of weeks ago. a lot of data coming through from the u.s. and japan. how are you looking at that and the tie-in to dollar-yen and have officials in tokyo got the pa
more fed speakers coming up in the next few days, jerome powell as well, but there is quite a bit of pushback already. last week we had the fomc and euphoria about the idea of rate cuts being three for this year, and there was a lot of dialing back in the meantime and we are about to go into the second quarter so there will be rethinking of investors. equities are good, u.s. dollar relatively strongly to bonds have been a good layer as well, yet here we are on the cusp of going into the second...
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Mar 13, 2024
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jerome powell said he thought it might be the first rate cut in the middle of the year, which people are taking for being june, the markets think it's the right time. everything could be upended if they change the dot plots next week and maybe they reduce the number to this year for cuts, and may be in an extreme case they go for one. there is plenty hinging on this, and that's probably why there's nervousness in the treasury market, they may see a follow-through in the equity markets as well. they might take a cautious stance between now and next week's decision. tom: lines crossing from the governor who has been given evidence again in front of parliament in tokyo. the boj saying spring wage talks are important in terms of monitoring that for the boj. he's reiterating what we heard. he is saying they will mall policy adjustment once the price target is insight. a bit more detail coming through. it doesn't shift the needle much, but maybe the wages do. to what extent is the resilience of these markets to the prospect of a boj hike next week, or is that a risk still for these markets
jerome powell said he thought it might be the first rate cut in the middle of the year, which people are taking for being june, the markets think it's the right time. everything could be upended if they change the dot plots next week and maybe they reduce the number to this year for cuts, and may be in an extreme case they go for one. there is plenty hinging on this, and that's probably why there's nervousness in the treasury market, they may see a follow-through in the equity markets as well....
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Mar 7, 2024
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where wall street banks are on the cusp of his sweeping regulatory victory after jerome powell said officials with scaled-back plans to make them hold more capital. he testified before congress yesterday. >> i do expect to there will be broad and material changes to the proposal. i am confident that the final product will be one that has broad support both at the fed and in the broader world. this would be a thoughtful, deliberative process. it is more important that we get this right can we do it fast. tom: there was not any surprise on the monetary policy rhetoric but on his comments about the banking sector and this particular piece of regulation. what did he have to say about u.s. lenders? >> did not expect this one. i thought we would be focused on monetary policy, but you have got powell saying this. the backdrop here is that the fed has been working on some changes to some policies are around capital questions were banks essentially, wanting them to hold more in capital. this is stemming back to the global financial crisis and broader reforms around the banks, but really picked up stea
where wall street banks are on the cusp of his sweeping regulatory victory after jerome powell said officials with scaled-back plans to make them hold more capital. he testified before congress yesterday. >> i do expect to there will be broad and material changes to the proposal. i am confident that the final product will be one that has broad support both at the fed and in the broader world. this would be a thoughtful, deliberative process. it is more important that we get this right can...
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Mar 14, 2024
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that will not happen, so people are preaching back, jerome powell himself is indicated that the middle of the year. it traders think june is now the likely time, so what does that bed new? do they stick with three rate cuts this year? they still left lending of time -- still have plenty of time. only two people need to change their mind and the picture changes, or in extreme cases some people think only what is necessary, so there was so my changing particularly for bond traders, equities as well. they really want to know what does the fed think in terms of realistically how many red cuts -- rate cuts, and janet yellen said she does not think interest rates can go lower than pre-pandemic. tom: interesting you bring up the comments from janet yellen, what did you make of those comments? is that a warning shot being fired across markets or is that scenario already priced in? >> she is being realistic. she can see firsthand where u.s. government spending is going. she knows they are running a large deficit. she can see the level of interest rate so she has probably warning people. if we c
that will not happen, so people are preaching back, jerome powell himself is indicated that the middle of the year. it traders think june is now the likely time, so what does that bed new? do they stick with three rate cuts this year? they still left lending of time -- still have plenty of time. only two people need to change their mind and the picture changes, or in extreme cases some people think only what is necessary, so there was so my changing particularly for bond traders, equities as...