>> we've got real differences here. >> this week on "inside washington," election 2012, six months out. >> if i am president, i will take responsibility and lead. >> what are barack obama's chanceces of keeping his job? >> no better than 50/50. >> what's bugging the voters? >> the ecomy. >> ad game gets nasty. >> everybody plays hardball. >> ground game -- who has the most enthusiastic supporters? money game -- will the candidate

with t the fattest sewer pack when? and the charm offensive -- which candidate is more ectable? -- likle? >> i like hanging out wi women. captioned byby the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- >> as we celebratehis memorial day holiday, we are almost six monthsaway from the 2012 presidential election. we will stay away from breaking news on this one and focus on the political road ahead. our guide for the journey pollster peter hart, who produces t nbc news-"w wall street journal" poll to which we so often refer. he thinks the election is no more than a 50/50 shot for the president. 2/3 of the american people think we are on the wrong track.

lousy number, butt ahead of where we were last year, 19%. votersre very glum about what is ahead for t them and their children. >> it makes people very uncertain. we feel for the firstime i in 13 generations that the country is going to hand the baton backwards rather than for words. the next generation is not going to be better off. if you are the incbent prident and u are talking about forward, the problem for the couountrys are e weoing forward, can we gogo forward? >> we will get back to peter later. let me ask you washington insiders, you look back on your manyears covering this capital and politics, is there anything about where we find ourselves now that strikes you as a particurly unique or troubling? mark? >> particularly uniqu? that is a good question. everything is troubling to the fact we are headed in the wrong directction, people are

pessimistic, the absence of american optimism, the decline of amerin optimism w which has been the defining psychic characristic of our people --- all of these are rather upsetting, unnerving, and challenging. >> colby what abouyou? a feeling you have never had before? >> the vast divide between the democratand republicans in washgton. you have always had partisan activity, but now you have a monolithic group of republicans and a monolithic group of democrats who are ideologically so far apart and unwilling to give anything unless their sie is going to win. have not had anything quite like this in modern politics. you have always had some e group in each group that was willing to bridge the gap. >> what strikes me as different is there is one colby said, but at we are evolving into is a

parliamentary system except we don't have a parliamentary stem. you overlay this kind of polarity on a system of checks an balances, and what you get is total gridlock. nobody is willing to compromise ossover which is the oil of a democratic system, and we don't have the power of a parliamentary system where when you win, your party puts into effect its program and is the people will like it, they sthbound your party -- if people don't like it they vote out your party. >> charles? >> i and encouraged by the divisiveness and rancor. [laughter] obama kicked it off with a large, ambitious program m for the left -- national health care, stimulus, cap-and-trade i.t.. has a lot like 1980. i don't lamenteded the absence of

moderation. with an ideologically ambitious ppresident like obama, you are not going to get it. if he loses, we go in any directioion. if he wins, he will get a mandate to continue. >> if you long up for them sheet mel, a a tough -- the mushy middle tough. >> i don't agree with the analysis we just heard. a lot will depend on the congress. it would be necessary for obama to get a democratic takeover o of the house of represesentatives. the only way t any power on capitol hill -- break the gridlock is to shift power on capitol hill. if romney wins and we have the same congress, democrats will do the same thing to his agenda what republicans have done to obama's agenda. >> there are people in the democratic party who really

loved seeing republicans get more and more to the rig does they think that ultimately,y, they will take over and when that way. democrats will take over and when that way and republins will sidelight themselves for a neration. >> those are political pros. what about people at home trying to f figure out where the country is going to go and plan for their children's lilives and retirement and so fth? >> they have got to be absolutely confused and unfounded. --confounded. charles talks about his heart left agenda, -- cap-and-trade, a republicanan idea endorsed by john mccain mandate for heaealth care, began in the heritage foundation, , and the stimulus, product of republican n president and republican secretary of the treasury. hang said that, as charles would say --

>> a actually, i have never said "having said that." >> you just did. [laughter] >> it does not count if -- >> point shields. >> what you have now are people nning for office saying "i hate congress, i hate the peoplele in it, i don't want to serve theirre." if somebody came up and sai "i have a graduate degree in child psychology, i know adolescents have studied them at a distance, but i hate children" -- that is what we're doioing. we are hiring people who hate the job they are going into. i 1 someone who acknowledges thathe person across the aisle love the country as much as he or she does and has legitimacy. >> so much error, so little time

bridges because healthcare had individual mandate does not take aw the fact that it is nationalizing health care, that liberals have dreamed about for years. cap-and-trade is control of the energy economy the stitimulus. is not a republican idea. not a singngle republican supported it. tarp is a republican idea, but it is the kind of keynesian economics that democrats believe in and they finally had chance to deploy, and he did not work. >> you were right this country was

built by working people. the economy needs manufacturing. machines, tools people making stuff. companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars back in the u.s. economy this year. in pipes, cement, steel, jobs, energy. we need to get the wheels turning. i'm proud of that. making real things... for real. ...that make a real difference. ♪ ♪ >> the ground game is going to be the mother's milk o politics. can you get people e to care as much about this election? everything we have seen suggest that republicans have more at stake and are more interested

than the democrats. there is a 10-point differential right now. > remember barack obama's inaugural? the d.c. as some -- the enththususiasm of that huge crowd? it w was a crusade. where has all that enthusiasm gone? >> it to the recession, or the slow recovery from the recession. to sustain that kind of feeling is at best difficult, and in these circumstancnces, close to impossible. there is no doubt that republicans care more about getti rid o of barack obama and then democrats do about keeping him. democrats, for some reason that escapes me, has been incredibly passively optimistic. they just ink he will get reelected. there is a good chance he won't. >> we have seen them fired up and we will continue see some

ugly campaign ads. bill they fire people up or turn them off? >> everybody is bad. >> there you go, everybody is bad. historical >>, negative campaigning and negative politics are intended to depress voter turnout. if you are trying to depress voter rnout by convincing peoplehat mitt romney ran bain capital like a pirate, ddy warbucks, it didn't care about those down below who lost their jobs and pensions and health care you are trying to depress turnout. it may be a fascinating thing. john mccain in the swing states, according to pete hart's own numbers, about the same number of votes in 2008 t that george w. bush did in 2004 when george bush carried those states.

barack obama come up because of the enthusiasm and intensity had a bigger turnout and was able to carry those states. i don' see that same kind of thing in 2012. >> if ma is right, but you are barack obama and you want young people to turn out, aren't you defeating or on purpose? >> ice -- s see it slightly diffently. for three and a half years republicans d fox news have painted barack obama as the devil incarnate. [unintelligible] may i dr. krauthammer or? >> i did not say a word. i was silently rolling my eyes. >> keep rolling, because i willl keep r rolling. they had reasons to get this son of karl marx out of the white house. t they have to be careful about how they go after barack

obama. ere is the base out there, and if there is a feeling he is being treated unfairly, that they are trying to take michelle obama and those nice kids out of the white house there will be people who will come out there and turned out. we are earlyly in this part of the campaign, , but you can tell that the nastiness to fire up the base is going to come out the limbaughs will let it all hang out, and there will be our reaction. now i stop and wait. >> i mean, give me a break on the fox news. i am flattered that fox news, of which i am a small part, is so powerful and well accepted, but come on. what mark was saying that it you look at the numbe for john mccain, it was t enthusiasm and turnout of the base that was so important for obama. demand in 2008 was the dam.

now yohave a reality. there is no enthusiasm. it is not exactly discovering hot waterer. the man was the most charismatic candidate in 2008 thate had probably since reagan and even re. it was a perfect storm -- had a financial collapse, war weariness, eight years of republican spirit it was over before ittarted for at the italian communist party could have won in 2008 -- [laughter] and some say did win. >> this is reall open " masterpiece theatre." >> l me return to e earth. "the washington post" had a good analysis of this campaign. barack obama is probably going to start out wit237 electoral votes, if you look at the electoral college. romney falls far behind that.

barack obama stands a good chance of getting a good chunk of that. >> fox news will fix that, don't worry. [ male announcer ] are you paying more and more for cable and enjoying it less and less? stop paying for second best. upgrade to verizon fios tv, internet and pho for just $89.99 a month guaranteed

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>> it is finding solutions and opportunities in an environment of a change in the turbulence it's what i learned during my career, and something i i want desperately to bring to the presidency. >>e thinks that experience is going to help our economy? these guyss past -- but these guys past is prologue. >> we are talkinabout what you can do in theuture, how you can bring me and my children forward in this country. >> who has the best shot of making that sale, charles?

who can manage the economy. i don't think it is is particularly strong argument for romney to say "i was a businessman." it is away to establish a persona of a man who is solid and reliable. the perceived negegative, is that he is a guy whoho never ran a candy store, the economy is the weak point romney has to add to the persona of "i am a businessman." he asked at a program. -- past two at a prprogram. mark indicated it is risky for him to embrace the ryan plan bui think the country is ready for a debate about entitlement reform, and the more ideological it gets, the more it helps republicans, because the mort they can make thcurrent election a replay of 2012, at they will then. >> replay of 2010, colby. >> it ll not be a replay of

2010 for a variety of reasons. the economy will not be in the same pce. at the democrats h have an opportunity, particularly h house democrats, to run a campaign ainst the ryan plan, and they see optimism therere. is another sleeperssue of gay marriage. something is going to be happening below the radar on this. people start to 4 positions around at this bause of where barack obama has beenn positioned. it is -- he iss almost a proxy in this. >> 31 states prohohibit it, andnd north carolina has passed a constitutional ammendment. >> and the polls show that sentiment is moving in the other directn. the debate we are going to have will see the polls move even further. >> i suspect it is is going to be a wash, but with both of ththese guys, i.t. has a questionon of reaty ove hope.

a lot of people voted for obama with great hope, and the reality has not been as good as the hope. you look at romney posture promises, you sererve a whole could that fixix the economy, but it is the same policies of the torch to the bush administration, which put us into a terrible mess -- policies of the george w. bush adnistration, which put us into a terrible mess. >> obama's message is far better and far more salient. independent polling, obama's messages fair shot f everybody, everybody plays by thsame rules, no special privileges everybody pays his and her fair share. the r romney message is b back to the future -- remove regulation get government outut of the way keep taxax cuts for ose who need them least -- he wouldn't say

that, but those who are job creators, by his definition. i don't there is any question that t the obama message would carry agast the romney message. the messenger does matter, however. >> the idea of a fair shot ruruns into a little bit of empirical troublble when you look at the crony capitalisism of solyndra and all that. there is huge amounts of favoriti and cronyism in this administration. but i think that right, that is the message, and the reason he has to run on the fairness issue, equity, is because he cannot run on performance forced to worship of the economy. he does not have our program. what is he have to offer? the buffett rule? that will not do anything for the economy. just a waway to distract fromom his record and that he does not have a program for his second term.

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>> what comes down to is mitt romney is always going to be seen as a person of wealth and of privilege. he is going to he toto figure out to get -- a way to get a nnection with the average person. barack obama passed to show people he has a backbone of steeand a plan that is going to work for america. >> in april, peter hart asksked voters which candidate theyy found the most easygoing, cared most about people, most consistent, honest, and straightforward. anybody care to guess who cameme out first on easygog and likable? >> bark obama? >> ask us a hard one. >> betemit -- her's the -- wait a minute, it cares about avaverage people. >> of course,. >> -- obama.

>> consistent? >> probably obama, because of the press -- [laughter] >> on same-sex marriage ain favor when he ran for the state senate, a post when he ran it -- oposed whene ran at -- >> he evolved. >> straight forward? >> i give that to romney. fox news has faileded again.. the power of the libiberalress >> the thing about john f. kennedy is thahat he came from a privilege,e, but people like him anyway because he was a real person. >> what does that mean? >> you know what that means. he looked like a real person, not a ken doll. >> this kind of hagiography --

"he looked like a real person"? >> romneney haseen playing before a conscripted american population as opposed toto the kennedys. look at the people standing in front of barack obama, the kennedy audience, you see another picture of america. looked at itit romney audience, which perhaps he can change in the general election, but you see -- >> kennedy defeated humphrey the primary not because he was real, but because he had a father whoas a billionaire. >> all, that is absolutely -- >> we can talk abobout the west virginia pririmary -- >> ronny's problem is thi -- we have two stereotypes of parties in this country. the democrats of that -- ththe democrats are the party of the

rabble, the uneducated, and like to ninate aristocrats. the republicans are the party of the will to do d at they nominate candidas of humble origins -- ronald reagan gerald ford. mitt romney reinforces this stereotype of the rich caring about the rich. he has to break out of that. >> last word. enjo