[woman vocalizing]

. an anticipation and market

positioning for the upcoming reports. pork producers not going in whole hog movement and mike goes out on a limb to predict real winter on the way. >> united states farm report brought to you by the 2012 chevy, the most dependable full sized pick ups on the road. >> hell o welcome to united states farm report. i'm fortunate to have a lifelong friend who continues the tradition in agriculture of having a supply of wise things available for most every moment. these vary in about the weather to comments about people. he seems to have absorbed retained everything he heard growing up. it used to drive me crazy. i objected to the conclusions drawn from incomplete rocks of

misunderstood history. that reaction has changed over the years when dan recites a proverb vaguely related to the situation under discussion i hear voices from i had past. it may not be wisdom but it's history. time for the headlines and here is al. >> thank you. with the new year on us the commodity market prepares for the supply demand estimate to be released thursday morning. in its estimate they expect ending stocks for corn to be lowered because of moderate increase in feed demand. for beans few changes are expected and for wheat this expect the winter wheat plantings to jump by more than two million acres. they note second quarter use was the lowest at least since the 1975. though 2011 was a are you to profit for the pork industry many remain caution act the future. with the feed prices still high

they weren't surprised expansion was only modest and he doesn't believe any further expansion will happen until summer at the early of the. pork production is expected to climb only about 2% in 2012, even with the increased production, he they believe strong export demand will equal another year of profit. those are the headlines. now back to john. >> this report is brought to you by poncho bodivo. >> for every farmer half the battle is knowing which seed works best in that corner of the country. this weekend we introduce toy a company that spends every year trying to find that information. clinton takes us to illinois for a look at this year's corn results with first manager joe bruce. >> what-have-you found this year in corn as far as interesting results in.

>> corn we had a really tough year in year. it was really hot and try midseason and in the late and everybody was doom and gloom. when push came to shove it wasn't as bad as we thought it would be. it wasn't ideal, trends were about 6% below on average for all of our tests,. >> and what was the overall yield? >> this year overall was 179- bushels per acre, last was 191. >> when you look at those results, you can kind of break it out by region. how do we come out this year w3 >> there were a couple of good areas that -- in south dakota, and as well as southern indiana, i was surprised, those did really well for some reason. they haven't hit the right rainfall pattern.

ohio had a horrible late start, very late planting and they had rain, had better yields than the last couple years. >> interesting. you have a website and database that producer dear sir go to sort through the information. >> yes. we do. our first seed test.com is our website. through that you can get access to reports for specific locations, or the summary of all the locations in that given area as well as a database where we have historic data from 2008 to present. you can go in there, put in what area are you from, what man -- different trades, you name it and can sort through and find what is best fit for their environment and growing situation. >> coming up in the next half hour a closer look at the first data as it pertains to

soybeans. up next al is back to talk markets. we will be right back. . our guest today, tom, indiana grain company and mike

north. we were talking a little off the camera about what we should discuss today. so many things happening to agriculture that's affecting us and the first thing you brought up and i will ask you to point out, what happened last wednesday because i was at the belt wide cotton conference and i wasn't on top of everything. something happened in europe. >> yeah. a bank made a dead offering, put bonds out and essentially offered a much lower than the last trade and that -- just brings back to the forefront this conversation of the trouble that europe is in and largely the weather led rally we have had throughout december, was allowed to go the distance because we didn't have a conversation. so, when you renew that conversation, it brings a little bit of concern back to the inaceves for and we saw a risk off trade, people pulling money out and thursday's markets reflected that. when we saw the market move lower it was confirmation there

is concern. >> there is concern. the markets went down quite a bit. >> yes. >> you saw the euro make a 16 month low so you are seeing dollar strength and then today this morning when i talked to you we had the unemployment report and things in america are getting better. they are getting better at a slow pace but better. they have been battener agriculture for a long time but the banking and housing sector is gets less worse. when you look at europe they are almost where we were a few years ago but are having a hard time getting organized. america and europe are breaking away and from an agriculture point some days corn goes up because the of stock market and then some days they way why do we want all this and they take risk. >> when i look at the first part of the week everybody was looking at south america, it won't rain and we didn't get that big rain and everybody wants to know why the prices went down. >> no.

obviously we will watch that as we go into this coming week because there is discussion they will get rains of a half inch to an inch in that area. no, no weather change. >> okay. i didn't know what it was. once again i was at the cotton conference. i wasn't out taking a look at the rain. i was in florida and he they had freezing weather from there. >> people don't realize how agriculture products in the united states can respond particularly now -- lot of oranges and i don't know how much you know but i know you watch the market closely. >> i traded last year three orange juice contracts. on a limit move, maybe we were limit up for the second day and i sold some orange juice and bought it back a little and i figured that was enough. one good trade in your career in orange juice and that's it. there are opportunities and watching all the markets, even

if you don't trade them. a grain trader should watch the milk or feeder market to see where a strength and weakness is coming out of the commodities. last year from what i read milk was a hot commodity. >> okay. here is -- in the -- is that true? in. >> obviously we came out really strong last year. you know from a historic perspective we made new highs in the number of months. it was a really goodyear on the dairy side. a lot of that credit given to hot weather, a squeeze on cheese because of some plastic found in a few loads, you know you had the export market continuing to grow there and so the dairy side had a great year, you know we are coming into a cycle now where we would expect hjeñto move into a cycle

low. may not be as red hot as it was last year but we will see. there are a lot of things to work through. >> we have to -- have a few cows because they got rid of the one that weren't producers but they are producing more more cow. >> exactly. we have a big replacement population and the cow numbers action even while they are grown the production per cow has grown even more. >> when we come back i would like to talk ability some of the changes that we are seeing in agriculture right now. when we return with more united states farm report in a moment.

. tom and mike, i promised we would talk back of the changes you have seen seen and i don't -- i like to give you like a five-year change, a two year after a one year, i think there has been a lot of changes in agriculture and tom i will start with you. i don't know how long -- i have never asked you that question, how long you have actually been trading and you are a trader, you are not a producer, you also don't buy for anybody else you trade for yourself. start trading on june 24th 1993. that was my 21st birthday when the exchange lets you trade. they have changed it now, you can be 18. i went on a high school field trip and i got roped in like a

little calf and have been there ever since. good and bad times. that's my -- if you can make it this long. >> one of the biggest changes you have seen in the business. >> electronic trading has really thrown people for a loop. to me it's a positive thing. it's taken someone like me who was a small corn trader and now i can be a small trade america every pit. i'm -- a small trade america the corn, bean, wheat and then the last five-years i broke out to the options. we were talking off camera about trading cattle and you get to trade contracts that weren't even at your exchange, then the global, i trade all this overnight and they are all open so then i can trade all the european -- i can watch wheat and see how it works here and that's at one in the morning. as you remember from that russian drought we were having

massive limit up moves in the middle of the night. people were wake up realizes they were having a great or bad day. that's the biggest change, the 24 hourness of trading. >> you really respond on a 24 hour basis to what's going on. have to. >> absolutely. >> right. >> when we have hired extra people it's just to watch the markets, so i can go to sleep at night and sayly sleep from midnight to four, if someone happens call me. you can get that rest in -- more times than not in the busy good market i don't mind the call because it means opportunities. >> electronic trading president that's what you said. what are the --. if i can --. >> absolutely. if i can build off that the volatility that's come from that . >> just a little bit. >> it's presented opportunities for him, for producers but when we bring it back to a risk management

conversation that has created a greater need at the farm level to address risk and price and as we talked about 2012 and going forward the thins we have seen change in the past that have made this something we need to hone in on and do a better job of in the future. you know we spend a lot of time on the camera talking about how to do it and why, the reason for it is the volatility. there is always the discussion of being in the new area of agriculture. if people believe that's a price change. it's not a price change as much as a change in how price changes. the change overtime has been that we have watched fundamentals be the core conversation and as we have gone worldwide that's changed. we have discussions about the euro verses the dollar, we want to know about china, we want south american weather. all of this playsn. >> we didn't used to do that it.

>> no. all of this as we have gone worldwide, makes a producer come to the table to address his risk. >> he has to and he meet that guy across the table we call a speculator and they -- they exchange risk. that's what it's about. >> i think that --. >> you and the farmer. >> you know i bought a farm so i have more time to talk to farmers and i take off my suit and put on the car harts and we talk to markets. i think the interaction i have had with the farmers have been wonderful. you know in a few months we have having a big seminar and we are inviting a lot of farmers to talk, what do you see changing, if it's something about seed or hedging your risk in the worldwide aspect of the market. >> it's more opportunity to make a profit now if you do it right? >> absolutely. couldn't be more correct. >> we will be back with more in just a moment.

. mike hoffman here to look at the weather for the first time in 2012, what happened, did you forget to order weather? >> its been amazing. almost nothing going on. i do think this may be the calm before the storm. i'm kind of thinking there will be a friday flop to this and we go cold for a while. foul everybody is saying that. there is kind of differing opinions. we will check the 30 day outlook in our next half hour. in the meantime we are look agent the drought monitor and it continues to be dry for the father soup eastern plains. you will notice we have improved areas over kansas, parts of oklahoma, texas as well but the south and southwestern parts of texas much of central and southern georgia continue to be dry in parts of the northern plains dry as well. the good news is we will start with moisture in those drought

areas especially in southern texas. we will show you that coming up. there is the jet stream and as we start monday there is that trough. that will cause a lot of moisture, you will notice how to tracks off to the east, merges with the overall trough that digs in to the northern plains for the middle of the week. this is an artic blast of air, for most of the eastern half of the country the way it looks, very mild temperatures in that ridge. farther to the west. let's go day by day, we will start off with monday. you can see a stationary front through the southern area of state was the developing area of low pressure, fair amount of rain along that, especially in the drought areas with -- maybe a touch of snow in the northern fringe of that, not much still going on through the northern part to start the week, little bit of rain and snow here if there. as we head toward wednesday the change starts at least, at least one blast of arctic air,

i don't think it one comes in and settles but maybe by the end of the month. arctic blast to start wednesday. storm system out of northern mexico into the missouri valley and central mississippi centrally, ohio valley with a fair amount of rain. by friday, we will see that front all the way into south florida. cold air stretching, pretty good lake effect snow showers through the great lakes and rain and snow where that cold air dams up against the rocky mountain states. we will check the longer range forecast coming up. >>

. this sunday is choir appreciation sunday. to be fair it was not proclaimed by the president or congress but rather a handful of music companies but that

doesn't disqualify. after over 30 years directing a church choir and a lifetime of singing with others, i am prepared to testify to the surprising power of the experience of joining voices with others. in my time with the barbershop chorus i recall the theme song we used to belt out every practice. keep america singing all day long. watch goodwill coma winging on a song. smile the while you are singing, carry, oh carry part. keep america singing singing in your heart. it's still hard to just read those words. songs have a way of creating emotions and experience that shape who we are. technology may be a danger to homemade music but i hope for succeeding generations to keep alive and even refind why singing together, not just merely listening is important for our human experience.

the two times i understand what it meant to be a part of a greater whole was during choir, and supervisorring a submarine engineering watchl all things. the power of talents, not just addition was up lifting. i have always believed that choirs minister first to those who sing but if you have been touched or comforted by the voices you hear, be sure to let them know this week. let us foe what you think. send e-mail to mailbag at united states farm report.com or call and leave us a voicemail. coming up in the next half hour, a young girl takes action to help those fighting a terrible disease. stay with us, the second half is coming up next.

. today on united states farm report, the government moves to safe guardian important class of medication by altering rules for use in animals. and restaurants and slightly fuller these days. and cotton production -- as peanuts compete for southern acres. >> united states farm reports brought to you by the 2012 chevy, the move dependable longest lasting full sized pick up on the road. >> hello and will come to united states farm report. like many conventional producer i have been following the organic trend. while i am keptal of the more

out hand dish health claims i believe consumers should be allowed to chose. the problem has been the gulf between what consumers say they want and what they are willing to pay for. unfortunately ethanol production has driven commodity prices to levels where organic crops strug toll compete for acres and proteins struggle with feed costs. we will watch it. >> america's livestock producers will soon be required to put in new restrictions, starting in april the fda will prohibit uses of the drug class -- now the fda said they are important products for treating diseases in humans and animals. it's worried about resistance to the drugs if they are over used. in. the fda is prohibiting extra

label or unapproved uses in cattle, swine, chicken and turkeys. it's the season so eat out as it appears more americans returning to their favorite restaurants. now topping the 100 point mark in november the performance index hit it's highest point in five months. the rpi tracks the health and outlook for united states restaurants. building up their strongest sales resuddenlies in more than four years they believe further expansion is possible in 2012. no looks like the peanut production could expand in the year ahead and could come at the expense of cotton. production dipped 13% because of the drought down south and prices for peanuts used to make peanut butter reached $1,200 a ton, up nearly three times the year before. some believe such prices could attract new production from the outside. the traditional growing area and georgia leads the nation

followed by alabama and texas. the end of the holiday season marks the end of the busy season for the pecan growers. in this report, toby shows us how a facility handles it. >> more than 4 million pounds of pecans will go through the facility this year. the prices rose sharply earlier in the season with china buying a large supply of them. with the holidays here demand is picking up. >> we are real busy. november was a slack month compared to last year. last year we had a -- probably record year. >> this year the crop wasn't very large in south louisiana. trees were often bare and it was a off year. the northern part had a large crop. >> quality was fair, it's not as good as it should be.

the nuts had good field but the quality was probably little lower than what it was in the past. >> while the harvest is wrapped up process willing continue into spring. it'll carry anymore through to the 2012 harvest. >> you get that early on when the season starts. that's the old crop, gets out there, last year's crop that's been sorted through. it's still a good crop but we are looking at new crop. >> growers lost a lot of trees to gustav in 2008. tree has been replanted but it'll be years before they come into production. for the agriculture center. >> in 2010 they contributed nearly $20 million to the louisiana economy. >> >> there is no doubt this

winter has been a strange one for most of the lower 48. fairly mild in most locations. i do see another shot coming this week though even though we start mild across most of the country. just a little hint of a trough. this is a good cut off low in the four corner area and into northern mexico. that will continue into tuesday and even into wednesday. that trough moving through the southern mississippi valley. the rain spreading northward in a widespread area from northeast texas to the lower great lakes and throughout most of the southeast. a lot of gulf moisture gets involved with this system after a week of almost no moisture anywhere across the country but the great lakes and the northeast. by wednesday we see the northern part of the jet stream coming southward with the first hints of the after tick blast. by the end of the week that is covering most of the eastern two thirds of the country, basically from the continental

divide eastward. we head through friday, lake effect snow will be ongoing and probably pile up pretty good in some areas of the qq%ñgreat lak the cold air goes down into florida. i don't see the freeze at this point that you saw last week. just because you aren't going to have that high pressure over the area. let's go a little longer range then. next week this will take us january 15th through the 21st. you can see below normal temperatures i'm forecasting from georgia up the east coast. most of the great lakes and through the northwest. above normal temperatures from most of new mexico, western texas into two thirds of kansas with near normal around that and as we look at precipitation more than like like below normal for most of texas action southwestern plains, above normal for the northern rockies, pacific northwest and the great lakes and the northeast. here is the longer range forecast. we are starting mild.

i'm going below normal for most of the northern tier of states, precipitation, this is typical, above normal for arkansas and most of the great lakes, same in the northeast. below normal into authority texas and southwest. so overall john kind of what we are looking at a situation where i do think we have probably see a flip-flop to winter. i'm hedging my bets though because it could come further south. >> missing in action until now. >> it was. >> tillage and working on ditches. curious winter. thank you. spirit of the heart land is next. >> building quality for 100 years. for all of your post frame construction needs. want to make a difference?you

can.the three things you can do to impact the 2012 we're off to the show-me state . we are off to the show me

state to meet a young lady. in this report from the university of missouri a 4h project creating quite a legacy. >> 9-year-old avery likes to sew. she spends hours after school making pillowcases. >> it's kind of a lot of work. >> so far she has made more than 200 and she is just getting warmed up. >> started out as a 4h project and then it got much bigger. >> it's called pocket full of sunshine. after her grand grandmother died of cancer she wanted to help others with serious illnesses. she teamed up with an organization. since 2002, the group has pillowcases to sick children. she wanted to be part of the

effort. the 4her now sews57 a month. some are delivered to the university of missouri children's hospital. >> i like the bright colors. i hope they remind the kids in the hospital of happy days. >> they do mean a lot. >> this 9-year-old who has cancer in remission got several of the special pillowcases in the hospital. >> the hospital pillowcases are plain like and then these are colorful and --. >> they agree the cup cakes are their favorites. the two 9-year-old's metaphor the first time. >> not own words to it express what it means seeing another 9- year-old do something for my daughter who was very sick for a very long time. it's amazing. >> avery is a perfect example that you can do big things even in a small town. >> i'm so proud of her.

she set her mind to what she wanted to do and she has done it. >> it feels nice and i'm just glad i can help. >> from the university of missouri. >> if you would like to donate to the pocket full of sunshine project head online that extension.missouri.edu. next week a group of classic iron fans who f;&(vdb&9÷ up with a unique way to help those in need. up next expert crunches the numbers for soybean seed production. we will be right back. >> miss any of the show? head to united states farm report.com to watch the program online. united states farm report, the spirit of the countryside. company in illinois

that tackles a big

job each and every growing . there is a company in illinois that tackles a big job and that's to determine which seed works best in each corner of farm country. in the first half hour we talked to joe bruce general manager about corn. now soybeans the focus. >> tell us about first, it's farmers independent research of seed technology. >> it's a group of ten guys that we are doing corn and soybean yield test across the midwest. with soybeans this -- we are mainly going from south dakota east to the midatlantic area and the southern part of iowa up to the central portion of minnesota. >> okay. >> and you are looking at different varieties. >> yes. different soybean varieties and how they do under different areas. >> what did you find this year. it was a challenging year. >> most farmer who agree that it was a challenging year and

soybeans in particular we thought we would be very bad because in general it was very dry in the month of august which is when pod fill normally happens. we only found yields only down about 3% in our test results over the entire area. that's only two bushels. 57-bushels the average -- last year it was 59. >> what about if we break it out by area. you are looking at different areas, how did it stack up? >> in general, it was good. we had very few down areas but it seemed like minnesota, had some down areas and they were extremely wet early on and i think the timing on the dry conditions may have hurt them, central illinois, also had an area that was very, very dry and the crop didn't bounce back from it. in general, you look at northern illinois, wisconsin, get into indiana, ohio, and

even the midatlantic, very, very good yields, it just -- they had timely rainfall when they needed it. in the midatlantic with the hurricane rains that came in late in the year it made the bean crop. it may have hurt corn but it made the bean crop. . >> were there any big winners? you mentioned pennsylvania but any big winners? >> just seemed like wisconsin, northern illinois and indiana did very well. >> there is also a website that goes along with you. with first, that people can go to get their own information and see some of this on their own terms. >> yes. first seed test.com. it's our site and folks can down load verge reports for specific locations as well as a regional summary of all the test results in that area. we have a searchable database called seed scout where farmers can put in the -- area of

interest, years of data, it goes back to 2008 and select the products and find the products that would preform best in their specific conditions. >> all right. thank you for being here. >> thank you. if you would like to learn more about the data and how it can improve your bottom line head to first seed test.com and we will have a link on the home page. next tractor tales and country church salute. with tractor

tales...what do you have for us this week? john, we found a . tractor tales. >> we found a collector with a 1957, case 600. this was up forbidding at an event. the owner was hoping to find someone interested in adding a unique piece of equipment to

their collection. >> this is a 600 case. this is a 600b series. it came out in 1957. it was the new -- the first series that wasn't all orange. it's a two tone paint. this was also the first that has a -- the transsignificance, which is a semi automatic torque converter. it's a low production tractor. they only made them for a few years. this was owned by a case mechanic, he worked at the dealership. he had it about 25 years. retired wanted to sell it so i bought it from him he was on a small dairy farm. it was a nice track for for haying, things like that. the guy did restore it. he went through, redid the engine, put a nice paint job on

it but it's all original. i will put it up for sale and we want to fund somebody who is a case collector. it's just a very nice, nice original track for. you don't see them a hot. it's a fairly rare tractor. i talked to someone this morning and he wants to use it on a tractor ride. that's's become popular. >> don't forget if you like to watch track for tales you can down load segments the home page. you can also pull down segments at pod cast from i-tunes. today's country church salute goes to the green springs missionary baptist church in glenn alabama. first opening in 1861 the church celebrates it's 150th anniversary. last year it's located in what's called the fee ridge community.

yvonne first visited in the 50s and it was just one room. there has been quite a bit of expansion since them. our thank you to yvonne for telling us about the church and congratulations to everybody at the church for 150 years of ministry. as always, we want to learn about your home church as well. salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us. the mailbag is next.

time now for our . time for the weekly look inside the farm report mailbag. we got several questions and comments about the mf global bankruptcy. the ceo bought long term european bonds, that is where the money has gone up in smoke supposedly. bill i don't pretended to be well informed on the details of this bomb shell but judging from the trickle of information

coming out from the investigation i suspect we are looking at the agriculture of the lehman brothers collapse. let me refer to agriculture risk expert at kansas state whose research has notten abled him to state whether deregulation or violation of rules let customer money be put in european bonds. i will post a link to his report. the real question for those directly involved is not how much tar and feathers they need but will there accounts be made whole and by who? as stock holders found in 2008 wealth can disappear. i think this may be the lot of account holders. legal recovery is very slow and a government bailout would be political poison. i think this will over shadow even the farm bill in economic

importance. i will have more to say next week on how i think farmers should approach this problem. as always, we want to hear from you. send comments to mailbag at united states farm report.com or leaving us a voicemail. for all of us, thank you for watching united states farm report, be sure to join us again next week. we will work to do even better.

♪ grew up in a small town and when the rain would fall down ♪ ♪ i'd just stare out my window ♪ ♪ dreaming of what could be and if i'd end up happy ♪ ♪ i would pray i could breakaway ♪ ♪ i'll spread my wings and i'll learn how to fly ♪ i'll do what it takes till i touch the sky ♪ ♪ i gotta make a wish, take a chance, make a change, and break away ♪ ♪ out of the darkness and into the sun ♪ ♪ i won't forget all the ones that i love ♪ ♪ i gotta take a risk, take a chance, make a change, and break away ♪