and members of the cause of all radical self-determination movement promised a block of goods shipments from serbia belgrade continues to compromise leaving local serbs in the disputed region under pressure from the albanian majority. the u.s. warns iran's supreme leader against attempts to block oil trade in the gulf threatening to respond with force it further turns up the heat on terror on the head of a shuttle to visit by u.n. and nuclear watchdog inspectors. but to my colleague bill daughters here in half an hour's time but for now people of his guests whether the assad regime in syria has reached the point of no return i what's next for a country drowning in violence you're watching ott. hello and welcome to cross talk i hear all about in syria there are declarations of

defiance as violence continues to intensify and spread the assad regime says it is a victim of conspiracies and outside interference to what degree is this true one thing that is certain syrians are now killing each other on the basis of their uniforms alleged loyalties and religious affiliation. start. to discuss the future of syria i'm joined by ivan eland in washington he is a senior fellow and director of the center on peace and liberty at the independent institute in los angeles we have ravi day he is a scholar of international relations and a columnist for the harvard international review or a gentleman this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it but first let's have a look at some of the events playing out on the ground in syria. ten months of bloody clashes more than five thousand people killed according to the u.n.

and syria still continues to shift closer to civil war in a rare gesture last tuesday syrian president bashar al assad made a televised address confirming his refusal to step down and threatening to use an iron hand against the protesters well our priority is to regain security which our country has enjoyed for decades this can only be achieved by hitting the terrorists with an iron hand reiterating his stance in a subsequent speech on wednesday assad pledged to crack down on what he called conspiracies against his country his defined speech flew in the face of the mounting international pressure to end violence and reach out to the opposition several rounds of sanctions from the u.s. europe and turkey have significantly shaking up the sea. european economy and the arab league's recent decision to suspend the country's membership has been a tough for a country vying for regional hedge of money but foreign powers have stopped short of these measures and these u.n. security council still hasn't agreed on a resolution it came to that on libya i think a u.n.

intervention authorized by council highly unlikely it seems very unlikely that russia and china would agree to it as they in a sense agreed to live an intervention by not vetoing the maybe a nato intervention that has high risk we've been hearing about the growing tension with iran we shouldn't forget the growing tension inside iraq and precisely because serious part of a complicated network of alliances that includes iran hezbollah in lebanon and gaza some os on the one hand and the u.s. israel saudi arabia and turkey on the other anything that happens in damascus is likely to have a tremendous impact on the balance of competing interests in the region miesha charney for crosstalk. ok ivan if i go to you first in washington. assad is defiantly saying he's not going anywhere and he's blaming his country's problems on outside forces to what degree is that true because there's an ample amount of evidence from on the sidelines that there's

a certain there's been training of troops in turkey there are a lot of arms going into the country from the outside. there's even talk that the united nations i'm sorry the the american national security agency is looking at some options right now i mean are we are we seeing a build up to an outside intervention in syria. well certainly turkey has been has flip flopped and gun against assad and i think there are they are harboring some of the. dissidents and that sort of thing i'm not sure this is an organized plot but i think the powers such as turkey in the united states are probably taking advantage of the internal protests for democracy in syria i don't think we can say that those protests are not legitimate or genuine but i think of course the other i initially the united states was reluctant i think to get rid of

assad as much as they don't like him because they were afraid of something else i think in israel israel was certainly in that boat i think israel is resigned now to the fact that he is probably going to be swept from power and the israelis say that they're preparing for refugees and that sort of thing so i think the other the other powers powers. are predicting sides demise and you know turkey made it actually be helping them and it's difficult to tell what the u.s. wants now but you know the u.s. wants debility for israel and i think israel's security is paramount and. they may have reached the conclusion that side is eventually going to go and they're trying to manage that but. so the other powers around there israel turkey the united states of course they're all interested in what's going to happen there but you know they can't really control events i don't think ok majeed if i go to you in los

angeles are we looking at the last days or months weeks months of the assad regime and for some people that may be a good idea but you know the law of unintended consequences when we see what happens when a regime collapses and you give it a push either a hard one or a gentleman you mean they'll not know what you're going to get afterwards. if you don't mind i just go back to the point that your other guest made i respectfully disagree that turkey and united states had been plotting i think they actually had consistent policies and i think that. they took the difference there as dialogue first and diplomatic initiatives to to convince to stop the violence when he decided to follow the direction that the other victories in the region such as qaddafi and hosni mubarak took i think they decided to go to the next step and impose sanction and syria and i think now with

a they lost hope that is really willing to to make reforms inside political reforms in order to release the prisoners and to stop the killing and this is the magic torture and i think now day there and they are waiting for the arab league or so the arab league if they decided to refer the case to the united nation or un security in the un security council then they will make a more robust measure so. in that respect i think they have had a consistence policies towards syria and i think they took the side of the civilians inside syria and they have clearly i mean sorry if i get interrupt here i mean these are i don't understand when we use the term protesters civilians i mean a lot of these people are armed and they're no longer civilians or protesters they're come back now and this is turned into

a civil war and some western powers are supporting certain elements within syria taking a side in the civil war would you agree or disagree with that if i could stay with los angeles well. well i think i mean i agree that if the violence continues and. insist on in using the tactics of heavy security forces and military forces to address the legitimate demands and grievances of the people there why descend into a civil war but i haven't really i don't rule really there are. those armed groups that the syrian regime is trying to paint and to so it to to show a picture that they are attacked by these terrorist groups or recently or or other foreign backed plots and conspiracies and i think we shouldn't really fall in these fallacy that syrian regime is trying to paint and to to depict it.

but i agree that if their violence continues we will have a full fledged civil war inside syria and i'm seeing that recently actually the president bashar assad and there is you know has been trying to play on these strained these. this experience during and there are. going to be removed from that part ok i want to go to ivan on the air here i mean let's look at the sectarian element over here because i get a little sick and tired of people to say the democracy movement i'm not convinced there are all of these people protesting or using weapons or for democracy they may be for other things they don't like the regime fine but is it really about democracy or is it more and more about sectarianism. well i think you know our there is a democracy element there's also as you pointed out there's people with defectors military defectors who are using weapons and it has turned violent and yes there is sectarian strife and so we have this mixture of people with mixed motives and this

quiet this happens in revolutions i bet it would you could say it happened in egypt even in libya tunisia and a lot of the times the people who started these things don't finish it up and i think the original the original. intent of the protestors was democracy but we do have these other two elements as you point out in there and so. i'm not sure what the u.s. policy is actually because i'm not sure that the u.s. is really you know that enthusiastic about getting ready rid of assad this sure they don't like them just like they didn't like but there are many more costs to the united states for getting rid of them as for israel as well because assad is right between all these important countries a near persian gulf oil and that sort of thing and also an important arab player that libya was never he was never such a important player in the arab world

a serious so you have all these thing and of course the israeli connection is very important but. not sure exactly what the situation is in there right now because the united states policy has appeared to be muddled and i think it's not only in syria but the other arab spring there's a tension between u.s. rhetoric for democracy and ensuring stability or a friendly regime and you know they would like a friendly regime that assad but they're scared that they're going to get sunni sunni fundamentalists that was my next point and so much and if i go back you in los angeles what about that i mean because there's that it's not talked a lot about in western media because it's very that people feel uncomfortable about it for some reason but there is a radical sunni element being played out in syria right now it's been there for a while and assad has been really oppressive over the last few decades now they're back. yeah i mean that's true but let me just go back to the point your

other guest made i think. the thing is the united states i don't know whatever the united states. it's created size if it intervenes in syria and overthrowing the regime and let's say establish a democratic government and government syria they would say that it's intervened union lottery if it doesn't there was a united state is not reacting i think the united states has really. done the appropriate steps to condemn the assad regime it was one of the first countries to condemn and said the regime use of brutal use of wyler's and i think it was one of the counties who pushed for a sanctions on syria so i don't know what is only. can we run out of time we go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on what awaits syria state r.t. . if.

it's not about spilling blood. it's the war of barricades from one side and fears blockade from the other. invisible border has cut people from the land for twelve years. the conflict that divided serbia into two hostile cards is still not over.

my. opinion if you. still. want to. welcome back to cross talk you know about remind you we're talking about the situation in syria. and egypt.

ok much of if i go to you in los angeles do you think there should be. outside intervention military intervention into syria at this point ok that includes a no fly zone. certain core doors for humanitarian aid eccentrics edge or do you think it's time to do that do you support it. well i think first of all let me explain that the international can we go into national organizations their arab league and none are a country such as turkey had us every step possible every means possible to convince to stop the violence and use dialogue or civilized political manner to address the grievances of the people and none of these approaches work i mean he decided to use the security forces and military to address the crisis in syria and he i mean. the military sea or syrian regime has been for for decades shaped

by these believe that every problem can be addressed by military so i think he will not change his approach or. this speech last night when he came out and is saying that. he's not responsible for the people being king and he should complete obliviousness of what is going inside syria i think he insists on using the same approach and i think now we probably i mean there is to protect the civilian protect the killing we have daily bases killing in syria torturing children we saw hundreds of. journalists let's wait let's be fair to i mean we see what's claimed to be defections from the the military going into the opposition and they're using force as well ok i know i keep pressing on the issue of civil war but that's the definition of a civil war when you're one when this country people of the same nationality the same country take up arms against each other and they are being armed from the

outside there is evidence of that as well. well i mean but who i mean host tara that the defector i mean it was the regime who initiated that if there is e-mails from the beginning with a very civilized political use a very civilized political approach i think that would not have led to the situation that we see now what i emphasize that the both sides should use really constrained and but i mean back to previous question i think. to protect the civilian inside syria and i mean. i mean like my family friends i mean there are living there and there are regularly reporting that about the violence that is going on there and their response that they are they are facing i think to protect these civilians we have there have to be some sort of. international intervention in there or it could be. there it could be no fly zone or it could be you know. let me point out to my viewers that nato is intervention

into libya killed lots of civilians so that's what you get when you get outside intervention even if i go back to you in washington i mean is this whole thing it's not about assad it's not about democracy it's not about any of these things it's all about you ran in breaking the bridge that iran has through syria to hezbollah and you can even throw in if you want. in gaza this is it's all geo political it has nothing really to do with the interest of the syrian people. well i think that's true the united states' policy is usually rhetorically to support democracy but usually is driven by interests and the interests in this case made conflict and i think that's why we're getting a little bit of a muddle policy on the one hand israel at first was not. thrilled about the overthrow of assad because they didn't know what they were going to get and neither you know what comes after that neither did the united states the second thing is

yes they are trying to they're trying to break the bridge between syria and iran of course you know and one way to do that would be to get rid of assad but of course. you know you don't know what the new government of syria would do either so that's the important question the really the real question from my perspective i deal with u.s. policy should the u.s. be meddling around in their narrow and if they are giving aid to some groups armed groups in syria which i don't think has been demonstrated that they are they should stop it and i don't even i think there are long term consequences for meddling in the internet internal affairs of countries that are not in the u.s. strategic interest to do so united states has no strategic interest in syria its ally israel does but that israel lives there the united states doesn't and i think the united states really needs to decouple itself from israel more than it does and

therefore i don't think the united states should be involved with no fly zones or anything like that or helping the rebels such as they did blatantly in libya it's just in the long term. the system that when you go in and try to protect minorities that are revolting well no matter what and i do believe there are democratic elements in syria they're trying to overthrow the government there may be other elements in there too as there were in egypt case but i think. even if they. there are democratic elements that are trying to overthrow assad when the united states supports any internal revote it only encourages other groups to try to get in and to internationalize the conflict as the libyans were able to do and it also which undermines the international system of sovereignty and that that system is not perfect because sometimes internal revolts are quelled but the reason that we have that imperfect system it's very realistic it reduces the amount of wars and when

you when you trample on that system for one particular country it may bring sort term gains you know maybe democracy in syria but maybe not but on the long term it's certainly a road to the international system of not messing around internally and in other people's business much of in law such as would you be prepared to see a libyan like operation for. acted against syria i mean would it be worth it. well i think i mean we're. not i mean we can't have exactly that scenario i mean we can use different other approaches which are more effective. but there are and there are countries in the region the arab countries. country turkey who are who are tired of. talking with us and trying to convince him to stop the violence and he he doesn't want to follow that i think there are you can use the. let's say

coalition of the arab countries and turkey to some sort of. some sort of either back their opposition group in syria a syrian national council. and to train them and then. to impose let's say no fly zone so we don't have to have a western country. western countries or nato countries involved in this it could be it's going to be resolved by regional actors and i don't know why we shouldn't have to apply exactly what happened in libya to a syrian casey we can take different approaches in that regard if i go back you're watching i mean when when when when a country like the united states in france and britain or nato in general says this leader has to go this will that set into into effect a certain chain of events because you know hillary clinton says you should go and

they said that duffy and we know what happened to him it doesn't a west put itself into a position where it just keeps it has to keep going down the same path that it can't back off because it's already said you have to go. well i think that's true and there's a danger of that there's also a danger that economic sanctions when you put them on the case of syria or iran sometimes that leads to war we saw that in panama in one thousand nine hundred nine we saw in and saddam hussein in one nine hundred ninety and you can also say that libya had the same the same issue when you tell a ruler that they have to go and it's bizarre in the case of libya because he was mending he was doing what the west wanted him to do getting rid of his nuclear program but he was playing the game and of course there's a problem when you take out people who are not who don't have nuclear weapons and that sort of thing you're encouraging more countries to go after and certainly

syria. has a nuclear war plan was a nuclear facility was destroyed in syria and so when you take out a place like libya in iraq that don't have nuclear weapons and get north korea gets a free pass because they do have nuclear weapons it encourages these countries to go after these types of weapons and i think you do go down a path when you put economic sanctions on there and saw as an alternative to war but really it ratchets up the. stakes and then people say well gee these sanctions didn't work and getting rid of this regime which they almost never do i did a study on economic sanctions once and they're just they're they can do very modest things but we're talking about getting rid of nuclear program or overthrowing the regime they just don't do it because the regime has every incentive to absorb the cost of sanctions maybe divert them to portions of the population that have no

political power and keep going on because their survival is at stake and i think that's what's in it for assad is he's not going to buckle to the sanctions and then you're going to have to say well gee what do we do after the sanctions don't work so sometimes even when you die. i want to get trapped into a war you want to do something alternative like sanctions it leads to war because you're going down that path and that's exactly the problem with syria and i would also our your iran u.s. policy toward iran ok mind you ever go back to you in los angeles where my sense is that there is a civil war already going on in in syria and assad will be overthrown eventually and i think you will be outside involvement in that one form or another to one degree or another what kind of syria will come out after that i mean well do you believe it will be a democratic syria or you know the. muslim brotherhood is the one of the very influential. group. in syria and we saw what happened in egypt and they may

want to start talking about different foreign policies and that doesn't necessarily mean i would be very. sit pleasantly next to israel like it has for the past thirty years. i think. we've seen i mean. i mean syria will be the syrian people would be really better off without. and i think he should be held accountable in the international criminal court and i believe there is a syrian regime has been trying to do that if they are removed there will be civil war instability and they are trying to inflict fear inside the people to. their time very interesting discussion on syria many thanks and i guess today in los angeles and in washington thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember.

moscow warns its u.n. partners not to try to alter its draft resolution on syria russia wants an end to the bloody fighting and the start of peace talks but all those are pushing for regime change. british pm david cameron the rise in saudi arabia the u.k.'s largest arms market in the middle east even as the gulf kingdom continues its crackdown on protest of. possible hardliners threaten to block good shipments from serbia this weekend as local sense in the disputed region come under increasing pressure from the albanian majority of top stories this.