as israel's aggression continues in the gaza strip, more lives are being lost. at the same time we're looking at the way that israel's economy is suffering, but close to six months of this onslot, there needs to be a review as to where the future uh lies for israel when it comes to. economy from its credit downgrades to uh disruption in its labor force. let's review some of the highlights of today's program. first, the downgrade of credit of israel is hurting it. the way that it has to get funds and loans has been impacted, and also uh the continuation of the aggression relies on loans that it now can't get, so that puts into question whether it can continue the aggression or not. other cost to israel, well you have israely link.

vessels uh and us and uk uh vessels also being targeted by the yemani army impacting the maritime trade of israel that affects consumer prices and of course uh the maritime trade decrease for israel is another consequence. then when it comes to jobs, there's a lack of staff and labor force with an unknown future, especially on the political side. massive company closures have also resulted with no new companies coming into the picture. in the us israeli genocidal campaign continues to take palestinian lives, but the toll on the israeli economy and the west bank also continues to rise. dongrading of israel's credit rating by the mousi's credit rating agency is a significant factor. for the first

time in 30 years, mudis downgraded israel's credit rating. after the downgrade, mousi's made another move. it lowered deposit ratings of israel's five largest banks. mudi's also attached a negative outlook as the ongoing onslot with hamas, it's aftermath and wider consequences, would raise political risk for israel. moodies asserted that the aggression would weaken its executive and legislative institutions and its fiscal strength for the foreseeable future. this would have ripple effects on israel's economy. a lowing rating increases borrowing costs for banks, which in turn will likely be passed to consumers and will lead to higher lending rates. tim now of

for the social media post, the first one is from wikileaks a wikileaks cable uh reveals israel told us officials in 2008 that it would keep gaza's economy on the brink of collapse while avoiding a humanitarian crisis in gaza. next up, uncle sam, hiding fact it said that israel's economy dying, higher interest rates market demanded from israelis, the spread between the israel bonds and us treasuries has never been wider. this is vote of no confidence. from market, which the israelis and americans are trying to keep secret, that is something that needs to be looked at closer. maybe this might have some kind of clue to what we just read. this post says the us treasury managed to underwrite a record issue of israeli bonds to continue the war, we call it the onslot against the arabs in gaza. the war financing comprised of $2 billion dollars of five-year bonds and $3 of billion dollar each of 10. and 30-year bonds

and finally bricks countries are not only abandoning the us dollar as its reserve currency, they're actually sanctioning the us of and israel, how big of an impact will this have on our economy? hi guys, i'm here in dubai right now and something massive has just happened, the bricks countries of which dubai which is part of the united arab emirates, the bricks countries have... actually put embargos on the united states of america and israel, significant embargos and they've uh, they've literally turned the whole tables, because america have always shown their power because of their control of the federal reserve for so long that they've just simply stopped trading with certain countries and crippled them in history, well the power of the dollars disappeared, it's evaporated and the power of... well they've

taken control and now what they're doing, they're literally putting the squeeze on, this is never happened before in history, america and israel literally put to the sword by the bricks countries, and uh, if you're not away now, then you never will be, that's interesting, that maybe is good reason to do a program on bricks and some of the moves that is making visa v for example the us and the israely economy. all right, let's get down to the q&a, our first one and introduce our guest, ross, saifo, mantula is our first guest, thabombeki, african school of public and international affairs, the university of south africa joins us. welcome to the program sir, taking a look at uh what is happening here in terms of israel's economy, we want to focus on the west bank in this question, uh,

the economy there obviously has been very fragile, it's easily impacted now because of the confrontations that are happening with israel regime forces and the palestinians, basically aparthite practice. and the pression that they're experiencing given the increased violence from the israeli regime forces against palestinians, how do you see the economy of the west bank and the future that it faces there? what is very important is to understand that the ripul effects of a conflict has an impact on economics and on the trade relations and also when you look beyond their ratings, i think what is important for us to can contextualize the conflict in the... middle east, it is to understand that the conflict of israel and palestine even in 2014 when there was one operation by israel, there were already economic losses, and those economic losses, they are going into their governance, they

are now spending more money into military equipment, they are also losing the workforce, so when you are losing workers and at the same time you are having uh loans that you are doing because remember even after the 7th of october they are already dealing with the business lost turnover of many businesses, people have lost their jobs, so israel is is actually pushing the global economy into a difficult terrain that we will succeed out of. important point that uh guess are makes uh let's uh bring in our next guest and uh find out from him what he thinks, martin is a form managing editor, international affairs and former chief news analyst uh at united press. martin saf, welcome to the program. uh, we're looking at uh the west bank here, and of course the so many things that are playing the west bank from the violence to the question that i have for you, which is the restriction on the freedom of move movements where palestinian

workers have no way into the occupied territories, majority of them have been actually barred from work working in the occupied west bank and they can't work in their previous professions. does this mean that? palestine economy in the west bank is doomed to fail and that uh chances of it growing are can't be even gauged at this point? again, a difficult question, in conventional economic terms, i agree with your assent, there is no question that they are suffering, but at the same time it has not so far affected their ability to prosecute the war or the regime's determination to do so, the the regime it does not preside over a united. country, there was a rallying around the regime after october the 7th, but because of the failure of both the efforts to free hostages and the break down of negotiations with hamas and also the long-term prosecution of the war, it

has not undermined the the regime so far, but there has to be a cost taken, this is very unprecedented war, when the economic costs are, affecting them in the long term, not immediately. now there are two ways this goes simultaneously, in the shorter term because it is long drawn out, they can actually adapt in the short to the situation, because it isn't the sudden shock, it's a gradual intensification of pressure on them, and so far they have been able to do that, however they have never been geared to to fighting long wars and maintaining the costs of long wars. "i think we will see apparently no change for the next several months, but after that there could be a negative change in their economic circumstances very dramatically and very fast. it's time now for

the inf news section of the program, first off we're going to take a look at the company tiktok, it's been going through lot when it comes to uh us law make..." but what has something that has been ongoing for quite happened is that there is a takeover in the making, why? first the house of representatives has passed the bill that would basically in the united states, some time, well has fine. happened and now the former trump official, if you remember steve manachen, the treasury secretary, well he has put forward a plan to actually buy tiktok, and what he has done is he's gathering investors to see whether not whether when that's going to happen. we ask, doesn't this violate the free speech rights of millions of americans use the platform daily to communicate and stay informed under concerns over user privacy and national security? just shows what the us can do on the... the notion national security up next headline that caught our attention is about

oil and it's demand, global oil demand to grow and the red sea shipping disruptions. the international energy agency says that shipping disruptions provide a short-term boost to the oil market with demand to hover at around 1.3 million barrels per day. now the oil market will actually face a supply shortage based on one report by the end of 2025 because the world is not replacing crude reserves fast enough. uh, next up, take a looking at taking a look at iran's economy, a couple pieces of news on that, the first one, iran's aluminum has actually grown in terms of its output uh by 7%, this being for the month of february of this year, then uh we took a look at iran's export of agricultural products up 13% in 10 months, so it shows how iran's economy is just humming along uh next. and our final look is at uh world poverty where uh this particular headline said are

the poorest countries being left behind. it said back in 2015 world leaders made a pledge to leave no one behind. these countries were a larger grouping of 51 countries of low income status to the end of the 1980s. however, after more than three decades these 22 countries are still of low income status today. those were the topics we picked. for our infinity section, if you have any that you like to send to us from wherever you are, do send them to us. contact information is coming up. in late 2023, south africa filed case at the international court of justice icj over the israeli apart regimes genocidal war against palestinians in the besieg gaza strip. south africa stated that the televive regime has failed to uphold its commitments

under the 1948 genocide convention. south africa filed the lossit against the israeli regime at the end of december, noting that israel's actions in gaza that sided last october are genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the palestinian national, racial and ethnic group. we have a special guest to discuss the topic today. he's none other than south african ambassador to iran, his excellency. dr. francis molloy, thank you, mr. ambassador for your time today. thank you very much for inviting me, mubarak. it's a pleasure to be here. the program, israel has been attacking the gaza strip a large scale. there is no doubt that it is committing a genocide there, but this aggression has political, security, military, social and economic cost for the regime, some of which cannot be compensated.

let's take a look at how that is happening. well, these are some of the sectors that the aggression has had a deep impact on, leading to israel's economic losses. it concerns, for example, credit, that's one of the factors, the credit rating due to the economic effects on the onslot, the increase in the debt of the cabinet of the zianist regime as a result the gaza onslot, the increase in transportation. due to the insecurity of the red sea for example for the zionist regime, decrease in tourism income, the impact of aggression on jobs and the cost of housing refugees, as you can see these are just some the ones that we took a look at that has impacted israel's economy and has led to losses. next, this is very important one though, it just uh came out in the news and then is not mentioned much, and uh it concerns israel's credit downgrade, moodies, the credit rating agency downgraded the credit for. roll for the first time uh in 30 years and it's a big blow for it, this has led to increase in the public budget deficit

and also high debt in israel. as a result, this could lead to increase in interest rates on foreign loans, which well to finance the continuation of the onslot is going to be pretty tough for israel to do. it may also lead to a decrease in the value of shares in the stock market and another hit for the israely economy. next up, let's take a look uh at uh, how this will lead to a decrease in investments? israel's investment risks are now very high, you have the occupied territories where the risks are going to be a very low level. if any at all at this point in time, companies will demand heavier guarantees for investment, for example, and uh, keep in mind buying the debt of any downgraded uh economy becomes less attractive to investors because they want to higher interest rate for their money, and if that's the case, downgrade would make interest on israel's cabinet debt much higher. as you can

see, these uh um issues that we talked about, the investments that we just mentioned, and of course, the other uh sectors overall that we talked about needs a little bit of uh dissection, let's bring back our guests to find out what they think about it, uh we have ras adva mantula who rejoins us, thaboveki african school of public and international affairs at the university of south africa. welcome back to the program uh let's take a look at about these um uh unemployment benefits for example that israel has um at this point recorded 260,00 of them? um since the beginning of the onslot that happeneduh back in october, 42,500 of these applicants are currently on unpaid leave and uh we're looking at the private sector in israel to continue to suffer because it doesn't uh doesn't have any one to uh fill in the jobs, what are the chances of israel's economic uh recuperation do you think? absolutely, the

the main challenge is that uh once we have multinational companies, once we have small companies affected by conflict for mother. uh three months to four months now, you will definitely have negative consequences. now for the companies to survive, you remember when covid-19 hit the the globe and the and the world, also israel was not suffering pers, because it mean it had its own medical supplies, but now they having challenge of the loss of work force. now the issue is that for the united nation, for the african union, for the... arab league for the for the countries that are paying their allegency and they are pledging the solidarity with the conflict, the issue of the labor laws and the labor rights of ordinary workers, the right to trade by business has to be respected and hence you can find that the the issues that the world bank has already raised when this

conflict erupted also, there was a good report that the world bank came with actually uh in october and after. three weeks after the war and it also pointed out the issue of the tourism that will be affected by the neighboring countries, the issue of the lower surplas and the people losing their jobs, so how are you going to deal people just came out of covid-19 years ago, how will people survive? all right, that's uh obviously one the things that concerns israel, it's his future, let's find out what martin safe thinks, martin safe rejoins us, he's a former managing editor at the united press, martin safe, welcome back. to economic divide you taking a look at israel's future uh, currently we're looking at one of the major areas that there's a disruption in and that's uh labor shortages, in terms of unemployment benefits, you had about 260,00 who have applied for these benefits, but overall you're looking at store closures and lack of employees and even for stores to get back on their feed, what are the chances of israel's economic recuperation do you think? again you

have asked key question and until there are serious negotiations. "there is no positive answer. my own view is that the the biden administration in the united states bears a great deal of responsibility for this, because anthony blincan who is very passive, he's very aggressive against russia and in prosecuting the war in ukraine, but he has been very passive in the middle east, and he has taken no effective action to restrain the israelies or to try and put pressure on hamas either for that matter. i am, as you know, quite quite an old fellow, and i covered the..." middle east, it was my first great adventure outside ireland back in the era of henry kissinger, which is half a century ago, now kissinger was very heavily criticized at the time, the israelis is now forgotten, disliked and distrusted kissinger, because he forced them to make more concessions than they wanted to make, but the key to kissing her was he kept the pressure on israel and he

kept the pressure on syria and egypt, his priority was to where... the the major conflicts between nations, he was not focusing on the palestinian, israeli conflict and he did really nothing on that whatsoever, not nothing constructive, but he did end the the continual states of war that had continued for a quarter of a century virtually uh between israel, egypt and syria, and he did so by keeping going back to the region, staying there for weeks and even months a time and maintaining the pressure on both sides including israel. he really pressure the israelies very significantly, we have not seen any of that so far, and frankly i believe secretary of state, anthony blincan does not have the character. does not have the determination, does not have the guts and doesn't have the intellect to do what kissinger did, he does not realize that diplomacy is not simply matter of going

somewhere and reading your complaints and then going away, you have to maintain pressure, it is not just gentleman's game, you have to continue to pressure and negotiate with people on all sides, but you have to focus on the priorities. israel has tough task of trying to cut expenditures during the time that it continues its aggression. after the start of the onslot, many families living around the gaza strip as well as in the north of the occupied territories and the border of lebanon have moved to hotels, motels and rental apartments. this is being subsidized by the israely budget. the head of the hotel association of israel has stated that 50% of the hotel rooms are allocated to people displaced from around gaza. parallel to this, the tourism industry has seen an unprecedented slump. the regime earned $5.5

billion dollars from tourism in 2022, with 2.5 million tourists visiting the occupied land average. however, after the alasa storm operation, tourism was severely damaged and the number of tourists in the months of october and november of 2023 was 89,00 and 38,000 respectively and reached zero in december, so i hope that the situation will change, the pil will come as soon as possible because it is is the important for us like the franciscan the keepers of the holy places, because the pilgrams are... the prayer and they praying with us, they give the life to the this church. hello and

welcome to the quicktake section. i'm mation. the yemini army has continued to incure losses for the israeli regime when it comes to maritime trait. these attacks have become more intense in recent weeks and due to the dependence of more than 90% of the trade of the zinist regime on the sea, it has imposed heavy economic cost on the regime. the israeli regime has had to act to make sure that israeli bound ships made their journey to occupied palestine. it has introduced incentive for that to happen. israel has offered to pay compensations to the ships that are damaged by the on slot on the gaza strip. despite that some shipping lines have refused to transport cargo to the occupied territories through the bobble mandab straight and the suas canal due to the insecurity in the red sea, the cost of transportation and insurance has increased

significantly. here is one example of what the yeameni army is doing. the belies registered rubymar is the first vessel lost since the yemeni army began targeting commercial ships in november. according to yemen, the number of targeted ships and warships... has reached 73. when it comes to the red sea, the arabian seas and the bubble mandub straight, including the suas canal, it is worth mentioning the importance that they have for shipping. for example, this canal shipping route that leads to the red sea is an important waterway for world trade and is used to transfer goods and energy between europe and asia and other regions of the world. this route saves time and money by avoiding bypassing. the african continent. according to the analysis of the freight trucking company fritos, the rate of shipping goods from various chinese ports by ocean

route to israel for each 40- foot container has increased from 1,975 at the end of november to more than $2,300 on december 12th. also, the time to reach the destination has increased by at least 18 days. on the other. and the port of ilot, which is located on the coast of the red sea, has been practically closed due to yemeny attacks on this port and the lack of movement of ships to it. as a result, the trade of the zinus regime is carried out through ports located in the mediterranean sea with the closing of iot port, this regime must use ashkalin and haifa terminals to import its oil, which poses security risks to the zinus regime. that brings us to the... of this quick take segment, please feel free to send us your comments and questions, i'm and i'll see you next week.

when it comes to the future of uh israel and's economy, lot of unknowns uh are there, uh, one of the things obviously that is hurting israel is the lack of uh cash uh, the funds are not there to continue with this onslot and not just that, but also uh for its local economy, for it to survive. that is where the us comes. but the us is at odds with israel at this point. chalk, the sent majority leader has said that uh, there should be new elections there, which adds to more political uncertainty, only time will tell whether they can survive uh this uh turbulent time that it's experiencing. that does it with this edition of the program. thank you so much for being with us, any questions or comments contact informations behind me. for me and entire team at economic divide. it's goodbye, until the next program.

last week we showed you vandday graph machine and how we would use proton beams emitted from it to determine the age of ancient artifacts this week we're also determining the age of ancient artifacts but this time using gamma race so stay tuned to see how that works.