so i wrote this book. it's called prequel, an american fight against fascism. it has turned out to be kind of unexpectedly topical in the news. i did a book tour for "prequel" this past fall, but i keep getting asked to give more talks about it and given what's going on in the news, i have decided i am going to do a couple more events. i just wanted to tell you on may 26th, i will be at the historic and beloved township hall in providencetown, massachusetts for a special event sponsored by the provincetown bookshop. you can get information about how and where to buy tickets at msnbc.com/prequel, msnbc.com/prequel. that's it. thanks for the indulgence. that's going to do it for me now. "way too early" with jonathan lemire is up next. my predecessor failed the most basic of any duty the president owes to the american people, a duty to care. i believe that's unforgivable.

i came to office determined with the duty to care and get us through one of our toughest periods in history. and we have. >> president joe biden continues to hit the former president on the campaign trail as the former president yesterday appeared to float cutting social security and medicare. meanwhile, trump is also now flip-flopping on tiktok, the platform he pushed to ban when he was in office. it comes as the house is set to vote tomorrow. plus, there's more fallout from alabama senator katie britt's "state of the union" rebuttal and how her speech highlights republicans fears of losing women voters this election. good morning and welcome to "way too early" on this tuesday,

march 12th. i'm jonathan lemire. thanks for starting your day with us. former president donald trump is vowing to release hundreds of january 6th defendants currently behind bars if he were to be releected this november. on truth social last night trump explained that one of his first acts as president would be to, quote, free the january 6th hostages being wrongfully imprisoned. trump has previously suggested that he would pardon people charged in the january 6th attacks. nearly 500 people involved in the insurrection have been sentenced to prison, and over 1,000 people have been charged over their connection to the capitol riot. meanwhile, trump is also now floating the idea of cutting spending under social security and medicare. the former president made these comments during an interview yesterday morning on cnbc's "squawk box." take a listen. >> there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms

of cutting, and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements, tremendous bad management of entitlements. there's a tremendous amount of things and number of things you can do. and so i don't necessarily agree with the statement. i know that they're going to end up weakening social security because the country is weakened. take a look at outside the stock market our -- what we're going through hell. people are going through hell. >> a spokesperson for the trump campaign quickly sought to clarify the former president's comments saying he was simply referring to, quote, cutting waste and fraud. adding that trump will protect social security and medicare if elected. but trump has not offered a single policy plan for those programs. meanwhile, on the campaign trail up in new hampshire, president biden pushed back on trump's remarks and touted his own budget proposal released yesterday, which seeks to raise

taxes on the rich. >> folks, we have two ways to go on social security and medicare. republicans will cut social security and medicare to give as much tax cuts to the wealthy. even this morning donald trump said cuts to social security and medicare are on the table again. when asked if he changed his position, he said, quote, there's a lot you can do in terms of cutting, tremendous amount of things you can cut. tremendous amount of things you can do, not cut. the bottom line is he's still at it. i'm never going to allow that to happen, and i won't cut social security, i won't cut medicare. instead of cutting medicare and medicaid and give tax break tuesday the wealthy, i will strengthen and protect social security and medicare and make the wealthy begin to pay their fair share. >> also on the campaign trail just days after trump's allies took over the republican

national committee, dozens of rnc officials have already been pushed out of the organization. two sources tell nbc news at least four senior staffers were terminated yesterday and as many as 60 officials could be laid off. according to politico, which broke the story, the rnc's new chief operating officer sent a letter to employees explaining the new leadership team was in the process of evaluating the organization and staff to ensure the building is aligned with its vision. as politico notes, the shakeup underscores the swiftness with which trump's team is moving to take over the republican party operations after the former president all but clenched the gop presidential nomination last week. and heading into the election, trump's campaign is facing an early cash gap as some allies worry he's spending far too much political money on his legal bills. there's even concern he may not be able to afford to hold his signature rallies. take a look at how our colleague

vaughn hilliard explained the situation. >> not only are they looking at a deficit in finances compared to biden, but also there's the reality here at play that $80 billion have already gone towards legal-related expenses over the last two years for trump affiliated super pacs so they're already starting into a deficit. add onto the reality here the rnc is having to figure out how to best fund senate endowed ballot races. there's serious question marks for trump and the team and howl they're going to be able to compete. here's also a reality at play. it takes man power. money can also help. money can help towards actually putting folks on the ground in these states in areas where they are going to rely onto pull off victories are in rural parts of georgia, rural parts of wisconsin, rural parts of michigan, rural parts of arizona. and to get folks that normally don't vote, you've got to go and tell them we need you to come vote. and so bull head city, arizona,

if you don't have the money to finance some actual staff out in those areas, it makes it a lot more harder. and you can go have a rally in those places but those rallies cost $400,000. don't expect to see donald trump parading around the country because those events costs hundreds of thousands to put on. they're in a predict now whether they'd like to admit it or not. >> joining us now alex thompson to cover a lot of 2024 for us. let's start on the republican side, these mass layoffs at the rnc as well as what vaughn just detailed for us. the real cash gaps and democrats have far more money on hand than trump and republicans do. give us your analysis here for the lay of the land for donald trump. >> absolutely. it has been really striking. you mentioned earlier just before vaughn's comments about trump's comments about social security, medicare, also his comments about releasing

prisoners from january 6th. this is not a pivot to the center that you usually see a general election person go. after you win the primary most candidates they pivot to the senate, they try to reach the people who weren't with them before. and instead donald trump had marjorie taylor greene introduced him at a rally. you're not seeing the equivalent of a left winger introducing joe biden at his rallies. it's been really striking. to your other point there, quickly making the rnc indistinguishable from the trump campaign. now, that could help the trump campaign because as you noted they don't have a lot of money, and the rnc also doesn't have a lot of money. but we need to remember the rnc has a much higher limit on how much money they can get than the trump campaign. the trump campaign it's about $2,800. the rnc can do hundreds of thousands of dollars with one check. that's part of the reason why you're seeing them quickly take over and reassemble the team.

>> let's move over the democratic side. president biden feeling good after the "state of the union," hit the campaign trail, pennsylvania and georgia last week, he had wisconsin and michigan later in the week. he did seize on it yesterday. it seems medicare, social security biden has done a pretty good job aiming at voteders, particularly older voters who turn out to vote. give us your sense of the strategy there. do dems feel good about it? >> absolutely. we've talked about the poor poll numbers joe biden has had, and they haven't been great. he's doing very well among old voters, especially older white voters. that's why he's performing better in mid-western states. you're talking wisconsin, talking michigan. he's always been closer than some of those -- the states in the southwest. so, you know, focusing on medicare, focusing on insulin

prices, on some of the reforms he has done, you're seeing it in the polling numbers, and it's going to be a huge part of his campaign all through 2024. democrats think they have a real ace in the hole here at least in that midwest region. >> all right, starting us off this morning a alex thompson, thank you. and we will speak to you again soon i am certain. still ahead here on "way too early," special counsel robert hur will appear on capitol hill today after questioning president biden's memory in a recent report. plus former president trump renews his attacks on writer e. jean carroll, what her lawyers are saying about his most recent comments. those stories and a check on sports and weather when we come right back. k on sports and weather when we come right back

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as we turn to some of the morning's other top headlines now including this one coming up today in washington. where special council robert hur is expected to testify later this morning before the republican led house judiciary committee hearing. the hearing will be hur's first public comments since the release of his report on president biden's handling of classified documents. a committee aide tells nbc news that republicans top priority will be to highlight hur's description of biden as a, quote, sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory and his references to biden's diminished faculties. ranking member of the house oversight committee jamie raskin says democrats are more likely to ask hur about the differences in the way president biden and former president trump handled classified documents and their cooperation with respect to investigations. of course, biden cleared of wrongdoing, but hur's report setoff a political firestorm. meanwhile, former president trump is expected to attend a

hearing this thursday in the federal criminal case involving his own handling of classified documents at his mar-a-lago estate in florida. trump, of course, was charged with a crime. u.s. district judge aileen cannon will hear arguments on two of trump's motions to dismiss his indictment with his attorneys set to argue the case should be thrown out because of the presidential records act. now, trump is not required to be at the hearing in fort pierce, florida, but his lawyers indicated that he and his two codefendants would attend in a court filing they put in yesterday. elsewhere, on the legal front lawyers for writer e. jean carroll say they're monitoring trump's latest comments in which he appears to defame her once again. carroll, of course, sued trump twice amid allegations he raped her in a department store in new york city back in the 1990s. in may trump was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation. then in january a jury ordered he pay another $83 million plus interest to carroll for the

defamatory comments he made about her back in 2019 while he was in president. still, the verdict not stopping the apparent gop nominee from talking about the case. after expressing frustration over having to post a $91 million bond at a rally in georgia over the weekend, trump again criticized the case in that interview with cnbc yesterday. take a listen. >> if i didn't win on appeal, the most ridiculous decisions including the miss bergdoff goodman, a person i never met, i have no idea who she is. except one thing, i got sued. from that point on i said, wow, that's crazy what this is. i got charged. i was given a false accusation and had a post of $91 million bond on a false accusation. people aren't moving into new york because of the kind of crap they're pulling on me. >> so carroll's attorneys now telling nbc news that another

lawsuit against trump isn't necessarily off the table, saying in part the statute of limitations for defamation in most jurisdictions is between one and three years. we continue to monitor every statement that donald trump makes about our client. next up, we'll turn to sports. and march madness is just around the corner as two more teams make the cut. we'll share the latest additions to the ncaa tournament. plus the philadelphia eagles swoop in and snag a giant addition for their back field. we'll share some of the biggest moves on the biggest day of free agency across the nfl. we'll be right back with that. b. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. [coughing]

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for the first time since 2000 they're going dancing. >> two more tickets punched to the ncaa men's basketball tournament last night. that's samford celebrating its first southern conference title after holding off east tennessee state 76-69 and uppering it a march madness bid for the first time in nearly a quarter century. and before that you saw james madison claim the sun belt tournament championship with a 91-71 win over arkansas state, that sends the dukes for the tournament for the first time since 2017. luka doncic had 27 points in yet another triple-double but did so without scoring 30 in seven games. he exited midway through the fourth quarter. mavericks still blow out the bulls. meanwhile in los angeles

pretty embarrassing here. the lakers say they're planning to fit a handful of errors etched into the marble base of the statue of kobe bryant unveiled last month outside the team's home arena in downtown l.a. among mistakes are misspellings of the names of former nba players in a rendering of the box score from bryant's fame 81-point game back in 2006. another phrase misspelled, coaches decision. authorize also minor formatting mistakes. the statues are the first of three of bryant slated to stand outside the arena. now to another busy, busy day of free agency across the nfl. here's your headline. star running back saquan barclay is trading his blue jersey for green leaving to join the philadelphia eagles for a reported three-year deal worth $38 million. giants have tried to lock up barclay but they prioritize an daniel jones. now they lose their star running

back. the cincinnati bengals have reportedly released. according to espn moss and bengals have agreed to a deal wort $28 million. meanwhile the falcons agreening on a reported four-year deal with former minnesota vikings kirk cousins worth up to $180 million. the signings could become official when the new league begin tomorrow. i think that means the patriots will certainly draft the qb this year as well. to pro-tennis now and a stunner on the courts at the indiana wells open in california. top seated novack djokovic was eliminated fall in three sets to 20-year-old of italy. ranked 123rd is the lowest ranked player to beat djokovic.

and lastly bow go to major league baseball in port st. lucy, florida, where the sound of trumpets burglaried over the system for the first time in a year. he made his first appearance in the game since last march when he tore a tendon in his knee while celebrating puerto rico's victory in the world baseball classic. that theme song is so much fun. diaz entered in the fifth inning and struck out the side. despite his return mets last to the marlins 1-0. and fans of the other team holding their breath this morning awaiting the results of gary cole's mri complaining of elbow discomfort. time now for the weather. angie, how's it looking out there? >> good morning, jonathan. it's looking all right. we've got to look out to the west see the impactful system moving onshore. we've got the alerts up from the

rockies to the coast and does include the potential for heavy snow as well as additional rain for parts of the north west. we'll also keep an eye for parts of the plains as we gear up for heavy rain and strong storms for that region especially the central plains. this for tomorrow and the bulls eye is right around kansas city. we'll see that in the afternoon and evening hours. the biggest threat large hail and wind gusts and can't rule out a couple of tornadoes. meanwhile, today low humidity and strong winds up to 40 miles per hour going to leave us the potential for elevated fire weather. el paso and amarillo and up into wichita included in that. and we'll watch this through the afternoon hours today. meanwhile, it sure feels like spring maybe even early summer in parts of the midwest and great lakes. we've got 73 degrees on tap for chicago today, 27 degrees above normal this time of year. kansas city hits the 70s, nashville into the 70s and this

warmth continues into tomorrow, too. new york 68 degrees, washington, d.c. hits 72. we'll start to see things cooling off by the time the end of the workweek rolls around and into the weekend. still holding onto the 60s in places like philadelphia as we get to saturday. upper 50s morgan town, cleveland goes from the mid-60s on thursday to the mid-50s and on saturday 53 degrees. overall it really is going to feel like spring over the next couple of days. at this point for me if it's not going to snow anymore, on with the warmer weather. >> we're done with the umer 40s. either give us the last round of winter or let's move to spring. we agree. angie lassman, thank you so much. talk to you tomorrow. coming up on "way too early," house lawmakers are moving ahead with legislation that could potentially ban the popular social media app tiktok. big story. we'll have the very latest from capitol hill when we come right back. y latest from capitol hill when we come right back

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i could have banned tiktok. i had it banned just about. i could have gotten it done, but i said you know what, but i'll leave it up to you. i didn't push them too hard because let them do their own research and development, and they decided not to do it. but i was at the point i could have grabbed the gun if i wanted to. i said you guys decide, you make that decision because it's a tough decision to make. frankly there are a lot of people on tiktok that love it. there are a lot of young kids on tiktok who will go crazy without it. there are a lot of users, you know, there's a lot of good. and there's a lot of bad with

tiktok. but the thing i don't like is that without tiktok, you could make facebook bigger, and i consider facebook to be an enemy of the people along with a lot of the media. >> welcome back to "way too early." it is 5:30 a.m. on the east coast, 2:30 out west on this tuesday morning. i'm jonathan lemire. that was donald trump on cnbc yesterday. and despite the former president's opposition, the house will move forward with bipartisan legislation that targets tiktok. it's happening this week. speaker mike johnson said the bill will be on the floor tomorrow. it would require tiktok to either split from its chinese parent company,bytedance, or be banned from app stores across america. tiktok's ceo will be on the hill today to meet with senators. if the bill passes today it's not clear how or if the senate would vote on it. some said yesterday they're looking at a larger package that

addresses more than just the parent company of the one app. it's a political hot button issue, and joining us to talk about is co-founder of punch bowl news, anna palmer. she is an msnbc contributor. morning, anna. this striking about face from donald trump, who a major trump donor urging him to keep tiktok going. that seems to be part of his thinking here as well as the fact tiktok is home to a lot of conservative right-wing outlets. but talk to us what we're going to see in d.c. this week. do we think there's enough support in the house to pass his tiktok bill even with trump coming out against it? and what's your sense of the senate? >> we're seeing a very odd relationship here between the biden administration, house republicans uniting on an issue, something that rarely happens. we are reporting this morning that the fbi and doj and other national security officials will be on capitol hill to brief house lawmakers. part of this full corp press by

the biden administration to try to galvanize and keep the support to ban tiktok in the house. it is very swift, right? rarely do you see a bill being reduced and passed out of committee 50-0. so all republican and all democrats supporting this tiktok ban in the house. we expect this to move forward despite as you played at the top there former president donald trump changing his position on tiktok and before he'd been really for banning it and now coming out saying maybe that isn't such a good idea. >> we'll be watching this story carefully all week long. and let's switch gears. we mentioned earlier in the show that special counsel robert hur is going to testify today, called by republicans there in the house. give us a sense what we should expect. the white house is readying a rapid response opwragz for what hur might have to say. of course biden got some momentum coming out of the "state of the union." the last thing they want to do

is talk about his age again. do we think hur is going to do what special counsel's normally do is stick to the confines of the report or might he go further? he was accused of being gratuitous before. >> he's no longer employed by the doj, so some of those strictures and rules when you're an actually employee might be removed from the ability to actually speak more freely. the thing we're looking at really closely is republicans are going to want to try and press and kind of find those pressure points of the point in the report and whether they can get him to go further about biden's mental acuity. clearly the democrats are going to try to push back as much as absolutely possible. but to your point, if this hearing had happened before the "state of the union," i think there might be more news to surround it. but the fact you had a very strong, a very agile president up on stage showing his vigor last week, there's probably less -- less issue here in termles of just trying to get through it by democrats, get through it by this

administration and move forward. certainly when you look at the totality of impeachment effort by house republicans it is ending on a whimper, not as robust as they had hoped. >> yeah, no question there. and lastly, punch bowl news has got some new reporting on a push for ukraine funding in the house. fill us in, please. >> yeah, so there's a lot of frustration among house republicans and democrats with the fact that speaker mike johnson has no plans to move forward with that senate aid package that passed a few weeks ago. and so you're starting to see even more effort around this discharge petition, a very unlikely legislative maneuver. but brian fitzpatrick, republican from pennsylvania, trying to shore up different factions of the republican party, adding different things to this potential discharge petition that would be -- make it much more palatable to

republicans to get onboard with this effort. again, i think this is still a last-ditch effort and would have oo show basically every single other legislative maneuver or the fact johnson was not going to put this forward before he would be able to kind of move forward with it with the potential for it to actually succeed, but i think it just shows once again this agitation among lawmakers if they want to move forward with something when it comes to ukraine despite kind of the more loud part of their -- their conference that is very opposed to it. so, again, we'll have see, but this is just another kind of data point of frustration and the willingness of some to move forward on ukraine. >> as this debate continues, ukraine continues to lose ground to russia. covering a lot of ground for us this morning, anna palmer, cofounder of punch bowl news. thank you again. still ahead here, we'll go live to cnbc for an early look what's driving markets this morning. plus, bitcoin hits a new record price. we'll take a look at what's behind the crypto currency surge

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with non-habit forming zzzquil. ♪ ♪ time now for business, and for that let's bring in cnbc's arabile gumede who joins us live from london. good morning, arabile. so a key inflation report, the consumer price index is due out a little later this morning. what are economists expecting? >> yeah, so it's a slight uptick perhaps in some regards, but it is actually mainly flat on the headline figure that is anticipated, john. 3.1% is the anticipated headline number for that inflation print which would be the same then as january. of course this is the february print we're talking about. the core cpi print is the one to really look out for. they're anticipating 0.3% on a month on basis and 3.7% on a year on year basis. i think what really is the question mark is how sensitive the market will be to any

movement higher or lower than the estimated figure at this level because the market is pretty much basing that things will continue to come down gradually. will we see the u.s. economy continue to get a hold of inflation and dip into that 2% handle finally, or will things remain above 3%, which then stalls the chances of a rate cut happening even at the middle of the year. >> arabile, the crypto rally continues to surprise with bitcoin, its price hitting a new record high. tell us what's behind this. do we think it's going to continue? >> yeah, well, it certainly looks like it will continue, right? it's actually moving in lock step with gold, which has also reached record highs recently. and what's really happened is since the middle of january we saw the sec approved etfs to attract bitcoin. bitcoin etfs coming to the

market. at least ten companies grayscale, the likes of black. rock, all of those bringing their etfs to market. what you then saw is a whole host of retailer investors and corporate investors willing to go into bitcoin a little bit more, and that drove the price up quite prodigiously. you're seeing the record highs, that continues to be the case right now. so more flows into bitcoin ultimately helping that price reach those record highs. some investors are saying the price could go up into $100,000, so it'll be interesting to see that mark. >> all right, cnbc's arabile dpu meade live from london. thank you as always. still ahead, alabama senator katie britt's "state of the union" response is now spotlighting the gop's struggle to appeal to women voters. julia manchester is standing by with her new reporting on a critical voting block that could impact races up and down the ballots. "way too early" will be right back with that. "way too early" will be right back with that for those 60 years and older

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we see you. we hear you. and we stand with you. >> if you're -- if you're going to stand with me, could you stand a little bit further away? >> senator katie britt's republican response to the "state of the union" continues to provide a lot of late night laughs. and more importantly our next guest says it highlights the gop's struggle to appeal to women ahead of november's elections. joining us now national politics reporter for the hill, julia manchester. her latest piece has this headline. britt backlash stokes gop fears among losing women voters. let's talk about your piece.

how does the backlash over britt's rebuttal illustrate this republican struggle in. >> yeah, jonathan. a few things. look, in this address itself, in this rebustle it was very clear katie britt was trying to appeal to a number of groups but particularly republican women or maybe independent or swing women, but it was done at what many critics say at a cost. it was done from her kitchen, and her supporters say, look, this is to be emblematic of kitchen table issues, if you will. but then that choice got a lot of backlash saying it was going back to a very old trope, out dated trope saying essentially women belong in the kitchen or suggesting that. and she was talking about a lot of issues that have fired up republicans and maybe some independent or swing voters. but the problem is a lot of sources i talk to republicans and maybe those on the left said the way it was delivered wasn't in a way that would actually

appeal to these voters. a lot of people walked away from this finding it weird. and then on time of that you of course had the backlash for her using that sex trafficking story and, you know, obviously the push back that it didn't happen, that anecdote she used didn't happen under the biden administration. so we're not talking about this rebuttal for the right reasons, and i think it's a sort of -- some republicans i've even talked to said it's emblematic of the party's struggle to appeal to those women voters. >> yeah, remembered for all the wrong things much like marco rubio's rebuttal where he had to reach off camera to get a glass of water. we're going to wree talking about the parody of this for years to come. tell us more about what you learned there and about how republicans struggle to connect with suburban voters not just women but overall.

>> yeah. so essentially that swing group was -- or that i should say focus group was conducted by an anti-trump organization i talked about in the piece. and they found that, you know, from a number of swing states, not necessarily all suburban voters, but voters in swing states, many of them have large pockets of suburban voters, they said they walked away from her rebuttal with one take away, that it was essentially weird. so that's -- that's a big issue obviously going forward. we're not talking about it for the right reasons. but overall, i mean this is big for republicans. this is big issue for republicans, not really the rebuttal itself. i mean in this moment it is, but republicans have been struggling going back to 2018 to win suburban voters, not just women voters but suburban voters that have become very much a part of that democratic coalition. >> and certainly the issue of abortion rights plays into this as well.

democrats hammering home that issue, which so important to many suburban women. lastly, just tell us a little bit about the democratic strategies here? how do they continue to press their advantage with these suburban women? >> look, jonathan, on that point i think part of the choice to have katie britt deliver the response was initially probably seen as a good idea from republicans because she had done a lot to rally other republicans around ivf, invitro fertilization, following that state supreme court ruling on embryos. of course we're not talking about that right now, but for suburban women voters, look, we're hearing democrats talk about two major things. obviously abortion rights are huge but also this issue of democracy protecting democracy. we heard that quite a bit in president biden's speech. now, is that going to be a blanket issue to appeal to all democratic voters in that coalition or all swing voters? no, because there's obviously other issues that may appeal, like the economy, for example.

but for these, you know, highly educated suburban voters, this issue of protecting democracy has been found to poll pretty well. >> all right. terrific stuff, as always, from national politics reporter for "the hill," julia manchester. thank you. up next on "way too early," did president biden's state of the union address have the impact his campaign was hoping for? we'll break down the latest poll results straight ahead. coming up on "morning joe," donald trump seeking to clarify his stance on entitlements after he floated the idea of cutting retirement spending. we'll dig into that backlash and how president biden responded. plus, we'll hear from the republican chairman and the ranking democrat on the house intelligence committee ahead of today's hearing on the global threats facing the united states. also ahead, award-winning actor ewan mcgregor will be live in studio. he'll join us with a look at his mini series, "a gentleman in

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welcome back. new polling suggests president joe biden's state of the union address didn't break through to most americans, at least not yet. in the latest abc news/ipsos survey, 29% said it was better than expected and 12% said it was worse. tv ratings up from a year ago. as for biden's handling of key issues, his approval numbers are low, but they have ticked up slightly since an october poll. his biggest improvement comes on the topic of abortion, up from 39% to 47%. the only issue where biden's approval rating has gone down since october is his handling of the israel/hamas war, which dropped from 41% to 30%. there have been a few national polls, though, in recent days that have him up over donald trump, within the margin of error. joining us now, white house reporter for "politico," also the co-author of the west wing playbook newsletter, a must-read

every afternoon. eli, let's talk about how the white house feels after the state of the union. a lot of buzz. they took the age issue head on, followed up with campaign travel. these poll numbers are middling but not unexpected. what are you hearing? >> i think inside the white house, john, as you know, they feel good about the way it came off, at least settling nerves within the democratic party about biden's argument through november. would they like the polls to show a bigger bounce? absolutely. you know, i think they know this is a long haul to november. the campaign in wilmington, they are just starting to really press their financial advantage over the trump campaign, just starting to launch tv ads highlighting the biden record while drawing sharp contrast with trump. it is going to take time to press their advantage, they believe, and really, you know, within the white house, there are also some questions about whether approval ratings are really the best measurement of where the president stands or

whether he has a chance to win re-election. i'm thinking back to 2022 after emmanuel macron won the re-election in france, his chief of staff tweeted, "oh, look, a president can win re-election with a low approval number." that is an understanding that approval rating in american politics, given how crabby people are, polarized things are, there is a sense approval rating may not be the best metric. it is hard to get your rating over 40% these days once you've been in office for any stretch of time. >> good point about the approval ratings and the nation's crabbiness. we indicated the president has seen his approval ratings slip on the israel/hamas war. members of his own party think he is not doing enough to help the civilians there in gaza, not pushing israel enough. we have new reporting we broke last night about how there will be a red line with rafah. if israel goes into rafah, a full-scale invasion, the president may condition military

aid to the nation, which they have not done so far. tell us the thinking behind that, and also just both the big picture political ramifications of president biden potentially changing tactics with netanyahu and the handling of the war. >> this is a political liability for the president. he's not controlling the war on either side, but as the american commander in chief, there is some influence that you would think that biden would have over israel, a really important ally. at this point, that has not been the case. netanyahu is prosecuting the war how he likes it, and biden has ratcheted up the rhetoric, going back a month or so when he first said israel's campaign in gaza is over the top. we've seen the slow ratcheting up of the rhetoric, now talking about red lines. netanyahu pushing back, saying he doesn't care about biden's red line. his red line is not having another october 7th attack. it seems like they are really talking past one another, and it

would be remarkable if biden decided to condition aid on whether or not israel sort of scales back its operation. you know, the white house wouldn't really go further than what biden said in his interview on sunday -- or on saturday, rather, with jonathan capehart. i don't know how likely we are to see this in the coming weeks, but there is a real sense that this is hurting the president politically. you can't wish this war away. it's not just going to disappear by the fall. it is a real problem and a problem beyond just michigan with younger voters. there is an awareness of that and, rhetorically, you're seeing the president recalibrate a little bit. whether they go further with actual changes in policy toward israel, which would be a dramatic step, a lot of that depends on how things go after ramadan, what this potential new israeli offensive looks like. >> staying with foreign policy briefly, leaders in poland will be at the white house today to

talk about the ukraine war. what does the white house hope to get out of this meeting? >> show unity. poland would be the most affected nato ally if russia were to expand the war beyond ukraine. two leaders in poland on opposite sides domestically but the same side with ukraine, they come to washington at a time when ukraine aid is stuck. they're trying to show a united front even as the pro-ukraine coalition in the west seems to be a little stuck in the mud. between the ukraine story and the israel story, we are seeing an american president with big ambitions to reassert american leadership on the world stage. we are seeing at this point that that looks increasingly challenging. and hard to do given the politics here and in europe. >> terrific stuff as always from white house reporter for "politico," eli stokols. thank you very