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the white house. general election coverage gets underway today. i'm andrea mitchell reporting from washington along with my colleagues. >> donald trump is the presumptive republican nominee at nikki haley suspended her campaign this morning without endorsing trump. >> i said i wanted americans to have their voices heard. i have done that. i have no regrets. it is now up to donald trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. >> we will look to exit polling

to see where the haley voters are going. >> donald trump is calling for the republican party to unite behind him before he is officially declared theexpected. he picked up an endorsement from mitch mcconnell in a major sign the party will coalesce behind trump after last night's results and today's announcement from haley. trump insisting they call it super tuesday for a reason when he spoke last night. >> there's never been one like this. there's never been anything so conclusive. this was an amazing night. it's been an incredible period of time. we have a great republican party with tremendous talent. we want to have unity. we're going to have unity. it's going to happen very quickly. >> today we enter one of the longest general election cycles in american history. tieing the 244 days incumbent

president george w. bush and john kerry fought it out 20 years ago. we are looking at a 2020 rematch but with several major changes this time. both candidates, the oldest to be on a ticket. both with low approval ratings. >> immigration, abortion access and the 91 federal indictments against donald trump top of mind in all topics president biden is likely to mention in tomorrow's state of the union address. let's start with our reporters, nbc's alie vitali, garrett haake, kelly o'donnell, mark murray and ashley parker. ali, your takeaways from haley's suspension of her campaign this morning. >> reporter: of course, the first takeaway i have, andrea, is the fact she made the point she's a life long republican. she's always voted for her party's nominee. then in the next breath did not

endorse the man who is likely going to be officially the nominee in a matter of a few more nominating contests, donald trump. the fact that she rebuked her former boss multiple times, not just over his mental fitness but also over his moral clarity on the world stage. of course, using her position as his former u.n. ambassador as a jumping off point, specifically as trump did not blame vladimir putin for the death of alexei navalny, the lack of clarity from trump was something haley teed off on. i think those attacks, even though haley is gone from the race, are going to be very much in the ether. i heard it that in watching haley and watching trump's reaction, you continue to see this tale of two campaigns. the way that haley basically called for her party to open up the tent, urge the likely nominee to reach out to

independent and republican stripes to bring them back into the fold come november. then, of course, you have the contrast with what trump said and over the course of the campaign has said, which at one point was, if you are endorsing, voting for or giving money to nikki haley, you should be barred permanently from the maga movement, which at this point is the republican party. all of that so striking today as haley leaves this race but still vows to use her voice at some later point. >> garrett, i keep thinking about the truth social post after new hampshire when basically trump told haley donors to go pound sand. he didn't want them in the maga movement. does he plan to mend those fences now? >> reporter: look, he seemed to walk some of that back with another truth social post today, begrudgingly inviting haley supporters back into the maga universe. i can tell you from conversations with trump advisers, getting donors back in the tent, refilling the war chest for the general election to come is a major priority.

there's no affirmative strategy to reach out to the haley voters who might be trump voters in the fall other than hoping that joe biden pushes them back into the trump camp. that's the word i have gotten from trump advisers in the current campaign and even his longest serving political advisor, not an employee of the campaign, but someone who has trump's ear, roger stone, who i spoke to last night about this very question. listen to what he told me. >> i don't buy this idea that a nikki haley voter would necessarily be a trump voter in the fall. >> reporter: does he need to do anything to encourage nikki haley voters to be trump voters in the fall? he has to find votes somewhere. >> i don't disagree with that. on the other hand, i think the economic conditions are going to drive that. >> reporter: that's been the bottom line from all the trump advisers who i have been speaking to about this issue over the last couple of weeks. this will not be a pull from donald trump. it will be a push from joe biden they believe to the degree that the nikki haley voters are

gettable for donald trump. >> kelly, let's talk about that. president biden is already reaching out to haley voters, posting on x, you don't have to agree with me on everything to know maga extremism is a threat to our country. we need everyone on board. join our campaign. how does he find common ground? where are the biggest opportunities for the president? >> reporter: he is seizing the opportunity with the change on the republican side. expect to hear more of this. where they see overlap, they believe that some of the people who have supported nikki haley include suburban women in the republican party. how can they get at them? certainly, trying to talk about issues like reproductive freedom, concerns about the moral conduct of the former president and how the current president is trying to set a different tone and have a different approach to leadership, looking for ways there. more broadly, the president is wanting to make his campaign and even his state of the union tomorrow be focused on ways to

make life more affordable for americans. we know the economy is always such a huge driving part of how voters evaluate candidates. focusing on ways to reduce this, family budget, the people who handle that, house by house, home by home, and try to make some gains there. in terms of the nikki haley voter, they are looking at where nikki haley voters reside. they see where the vote count is. they see that as an area where there can be overlap. expect ongoing outreach there. one of the challenges for president biden, of course, is trying to move toward the center, which is typical for general elections, and would be a way to try to encourage support from those who have looked seriously at nikki haley. he has challenges on his far left with concerns, protests and questions about the support there. that is a stretch for the president, and it will be a challenge for his campaign.

>> ashley parker, let's talk about that. joe biden needs to reach out, he needs to do both at the same time. that's a very hard pivot for him to make. what role does nikki haley have? it seems to me as long as it's donald trump's party, she has to just contort herself into a different person to make change. she said it's his choice to make. that's a very subjective judgment. i could see her saying, well, he reached out to me and now all is forgiven. what does that say about her as a politician? >> what does it say about the republican party? right? watching nikki haley the last few weeks, she has very much been a happy warrior in terms of policy. she's laying out traditional conservative policies of george w. bush, of george h.w. bush, of ronald reagan, peace through constraint, fiscal conservative, being pro-life.

i was with her last week with a small group of reporters. i asked her, in a way she was arguing she was going to implement the republican autopsy report after mitt romney -- >> the one they never implemented. >> she talked about reaching out to people who republicans don't normally talk to. minorities. she said there were gay people at her events, trans people, minorities at her events. talk to the embeds there, they say it's still a typical white republican crowd. that is what she's arguing to be, that's what she's arguing is the future of the republican party. does this maga fever ever break? the answer may be no. >> especially not with the rnc falling into line as well, mark murray. it's his republican party. i don't know how he changes his spots, really, given who he is and what he says when he is off prompter. >> over the last two years, our nbc news poll asked the

question, do you want to have donald trump continue to be the leader of the republican party? throughout the course of the last two years, it has always been in the 50% or 60% range, which actually kind of bears out the numbers we ended up seeing super tuesday last night. what ashley was talking about, i think nikki haley's evolution as a political candidate is fascinating. a woman who got her start being south carolina governor during the advent of the tea party movement. as ashley was talking about, having a lot of the issues that we heard from the tea party candidates of a long time ago, deficit reduction, smaller government, let's be a great ally to ukraine. then she ended up joining the trump administration as u.n. ambassador. she gave a speech during donald trump's convention in 2020 and decided to challenge him and took over that moderate, interest kind of liberal lane. it was the only lane open to any anti-trump republican, but ultimately was a lane which you ended up a getting a minority of

the vote except in vermont and d.c. now the ball is in donald trump's court, but at the same time, for nikki haley, what kind of party does she want to go back to? a lot of people say, the republican party has been changed forever. that might be true in the short-term, but it's interesting what happens in 2028 and beyond and if there's a place for nikki haley. >> we always talked about these rivals, the team of rivals. you would not have predicted that hillary clinton would have wound up as secretary of state with barack obama given how bitter that was. dianne feinstein brokered that amongst others. it's hard do that. thedemocratic party say big -- is a bigger tent. thanks to all of you. a top democrat in the house and a former member of the january 6th committee joining us to break down today's breaking news and the fights ahead. stay with us. we will go to capitol hill next.

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welcome back. now that nikki haley has dropped out of the race for the white house and donald trump is the presumptive nominee, liz cheney says, quote, we have eight months to save our republic and ensures donald trump is never anywhere near the oval office again. >> jamie raskin is the top democrat on the house oversight committee and was a member of the january 6th committee and joins us now. thanks very much for being with us. flash back to the days just after january 6 to the attack, did you think then that donald trump would be the presumptive presidential nominee? do you agree with liz cheney's assessment given the antipathy by large numbers of voters in their parties? do you think that she can live up to her pledge to try to keep

him from the oval office? >> well, of course, the next election wasn't much on my mind when we were reeling from the violence and catastrophe of january 6th. i think my assumption was that of the constitution itself, which is that someone who participates in an insurrection against the union should never be allowed to hold office again. it is disgraceful that a great political party, much less abraham lincoln's party, a party of liberty and union, should be reduced to a cult of authoritarian personality in league with autocrats all over the world. i applaud the republicans standing up for the

constitution. the republicans can't bend. there's no ability to accommodate other views. everybody has to follow donald trump like a monarch. the democrats, as somebody was saying, we now how to bend. obama brought hillary clinton in. rather than try to expel her, vilify her and condemn her, she was brought in and her talents were used in the obama administration. there's a big difference between our two parties at this point. the difference between our parties really parallels the struggle that president biden set forth at valley forge between the liberal democrats standing up for freedom versus the autocrats and monarchs. >> as we head into the general election essentially, trump is facing these 91 criminal charges, four different cases. do you think we will see the federal election interference case go to trial this year

before the election? just how crucial is that? >> well, i actually don't think it's that crucial, because, look, everybody knows exactly who donald trump is. everybody knows who joe biden is. joe biden has dedicated his life to the proposition that government must be an instrument of the common good for children, for young people, for older people, for the well-being of all of society. donald trump is someone who is in politics -- when he first got in, he said it was going to be the greatest infomercial of all time. each of the cases, whether it's the financial fraud in new york or the sexual assault in new york or the defamation in new york or the attempt to overthrow the 2020 election, which, of course, the house of representatives has pronounced

upon. he was impeached for doing that. each of these just gives us a further glimpse into who donald trump is. but i think america knows who donald trump is. the question is, who are we? are we going to stand with democracy and freedom, or will we lapse into some other kind of autocratic government? that's really the question for the american people. >> it's such an important and profound question, congressman. i'm thinking, when you see that most of the polls show that it's going to be a very tight race coming in november, how do you think -- how do you see that we have gotten to this point as a country, congressman? >> well, you know, it's always been a struggle against autocratic forms of government and slavery and white supremacy. that's nothing new. this is a struggle that's been going on from the beginning of our history.

i will tell you this. the vast majority of the american people are on the side of democracy. joe biden beat him by more than 7 million votes. even hillary clinton, although she lost in the electoral college, beat him by 2.5 million votes. when you look at where the popular majority is, people are on our side in terms of gun safety, in terms of universal violent criminal background check, the public is on our side in terms of defending women's right to choose. you got more than 150 republicans, including the speaker of the house, who have taken a position that life begins at conception and not only should abortion be criminal, but ivf should be made illegal and should be a criminal act. that's what the election is going to be about. they want to make it about joe biden's 82 years. some people think it should be about donald trump's 91 felony criminal counts in federal and state court.

more fundamentally, it's about democracy and freedom. >> as you were speaking, we learned that senator ernst just endorsed trump. she's the last member of the senate minority leadership team to endorse donald trump after mitch mcconnell came out with his endorsement this morning. i just think about you and the january 6th committee spending hundreds of hours, all the money, the staff, the resources to show the american people what happened on january 6th and donald trump's role in it. what do you think about him potentially returning to the oval office? >> it wasn't just the massive violence unleashed against our police officers on that day and the violence that pervaded the halls that we are standing in right now. it was also in the months before when donald trump tried to go to state election officials like brad raffensperger, the secretary of state in georgia, and say find me 11, 780 votes,

or when he tried to organize a coup within the department of justice to get the department of justice just to say that it was a corrupt election and leave the rest to me and my friends in the house, he said. look, 60 federal and state courts rejected his big lie, the propaganda that there had been election fraud or election corruption. and yet, he continues to campaign almost exclusively on his big lie and the idea that he was somehow cheated out of an election. he wasn't. he lost the election in 2020. he is going to lose the election in 2024 because the vast majority of the people reject what it is he is selling. >> congressman jamie raskin, thank you very much for your time. appreciate you being with us. >> you bet. next, donald trump's rise to the republican nomination. how nikki haley's campaign highlighted trump's weaknesses among certain voting blocks and where he is making inroads to offset those losses next. hi! had tide fabric rinse?

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thanks for staying with us for breaking news. nikki haley dropping out of the race for the white house today. donald trump now the presumptive republican nominee. the question is, what's next for what promises to be one of the longest general elections in history? >> nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki is manning his post at the big board. talking about all nighters. with us throughout the hour, mark murray, in washington. steve, first of all, looking at the exit polls and your data, what are your biggest takeaways from both of these candidates, the presumptive candidates in both parties, what they have to do? how has everything changed since we saw the disappointment for nikki haley in virginia, in colorado, especially where, not being able to build any kind of strength against donald trump? >> yeah. i mean, if you look at last night -- everybody expected it was going to be a big night for trump.

haley did manage to eek out a win in vermont. she was hoping some of the states you mentioned, especially virginia, to be doing better than 34.9% right there. minnesota was one that on paper had a lot of demographic opportunity. she hasn't cracked 30%. colorado, this one surprised me. the scope of it. 33% of the vote. we talked about haley doing well with college educated suburbanites. no state in the country has a higher share of its white adult population with at least a four-year degree than colorado. even in those suburbs right around denver, a lot of them, haley was losing to donald trump last night. i think i was surprised by that. it showed some of the initial wind in her sails that got her over 40% in new hampshire and south carolina, that sort of dissipated, it looks like, when this switched from individual state contests to these multi-state affairs that come in rapid fire here. i think one of the interesting

takeaways from the haley campaign, to me -- this is a counterintuitive idea. the support she got last night and earlier indicates an activation of the democratic base. joe biden's base for november. what i mean is a lot of the states have rules, new hampshire, south carolina, michigan did, virginia did, vermont, a lot of states had rules that made the open primaries on the republican side. we look at them and say, it's a republican primary. these are republican voters. these are folks trump should be getting if he has a chance in november. the rules allowed for folks who are hostile to donald trump, who have no intention of voting for him in november, who didn't vote for him in 2020, to come into these primaries and to vote. there's a lot of evidence that they did this in pretty substantial numbers. they tended to be in the suburbs, in areas with high concentrations of college degrees, a little bit more economically upscale. we have known trump has been struggling in those areas in

general elections. that's probably indicative of that part of the democratic base, the biden base that really is motivated by its opposition to donald trump. they showed how motivated they are. they have been showing it in special elections by showing up in huge numbers. i think they showed it in the primaries to vote against trump and get the haley vote up there. what that tells us for november, to me at least it shifts the question more towards one of turnout. that's a big part of the democratic base. the college-educated suburbs. if they are on fire with turnout -- that's one of the lessons to draw here. if they are on fire for biden, it becomes a question if turnover comes down from 160 million. at some point, that base could provide a meaningful turnout edge for democrats in november. that's at least a possibility. >> steve, let's talk about the differences that you see from this last night to 2020,

including turnout. you just mentioned that. >> yeah. look, it's kind of varied all over the place. one thing that was striking to me at least -- let's look at south carolina right here. trump won it by 20 points. haley got 40% here. it is her home state, but it's one of her higher watermarks during this primary campaign. if you add these numbers together, 750,000, three-quarters of a million votes cast in the primary. that's almost the record there in south carolina for one of these primaries. very high turnout there. what was striking is, a few weeks earlier in south carolina, they had a democratic presidential primary turnout that was the opposite. 130,000. that's extremely low. joe biden won it easily, but extremely low turnout. a disparity there of 130,000 on the democratic side, 750,000 on the republican side. when you see that big of a gap and you take the rules of south carolina i was describing that make it an open primary, that

big of a turnout gap -- that's more of the evidence that you had a lot of biden voters, interests and democrats saying, biden has this under control. i'm going to the republican primary to vote against trump. >> generally, we did hear from our reporters around the country that they kept on hearing from those precinct captains that turnout was a little bit low last night compared to four years ago in the primary in 2020. mark, when we look at the exit polling from those who turned out, what are we learning about this electorate? >> first of all, we ended up learning that donald trump had a dominant lead among republican -- self-identified republicans in very conservative voters. just as he had in all of the polling that we had actually ended up seeing. conversely, nikki haley ended up having a substantial lead when it came to moderates and independents. there are a lot more

conservative republicans than moderates. that shows the result we ended up seeing nationally last night. the other takeaway is there are vulnerabilities for donald trump in the exit polls that you ended up having some good chunk of haley voters say they might not support the republican nominee come november. then thirdly -- i ended up agreeing completely with steve's breakdown. a lot of the nikki haley voters, it does seem to be biden or democratic voters. in virginia last night, 51% of haley voters said they approve of joe biden's job. those are people who are probably going to vote for joe biden no matter what. i do think those are kind of my big takeaways. >> to follow up from that, that result leading you to think, maybe that five-point spread in the "new york times" and our poll and the head-to-held matchup is not accurate. maybe the enthusiasm for joe

biden is as their campaign has been claiming bigger than we think once it was a binary choice. >> here is my big takeaway on the general election polls that we are seeing eight months from now. the biggest conclusion is, this is going to be a very competitive race, just like there in 2020. president biden is underperforming some of his benchmarks. not only with base democratic voters, but also voters in the middle of the electorate. now is the time for him to start trying to bring those people back into the fold. i think for a lot of us, we should actually assume a very competitive race. also importantly, while this is a rematch, this isn't a redo or replay of 2020. joe biden is the incumbent. he is not the challenger this time. we might have some different results. >> i want to see what action there is in third parties. that was determinative in 2016. >> mark murray, steve kornacki,

you both have worked so hard in the last 24 hours. it's just beginning. let the race really begin now. thank you so much. up next, we will be joined by a top official in the biden campaign about the state of the race ahead of the state of the union tomorrow night. you are watching msnbc. safelite came right to us, and we could see exactly when they'd arrive with a replacement we could trust. that's service the way we want it. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ have heart failure with unresolved symptoms? it may be time to see the bigger picture. heart failure and seemingly unrelated symptoms like carpal tunnel syndrome, shortness of breath, and irregular heartbeat could mean something more serious, called attr-cm a rare, underdiagnosed disease that worsens over time. sound like you? call your cardiologist and ask about attr-cm. when moderate to severe ulcerative colitis

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welcome back to our special coverage of the 2024 election following the exit of nikki haley today from the republican presidential primary race. for his part, president biden is reaching out to haley supporters. mr. biden saying in a campaign statement today, quote, donald trump made it clear he doesn't want nikki haley supporters. i want it to be clear, there is a place for them in my campaign. joining us now is michael tyler, communication director for the biden 2024 campaign. thanks so much for being with us. how do you persuade nikki haley supporters to get behind president biden without losing

the young people, the progressives, the people in michigan and elsewhere who voted uncommitted or no preference in some of the states last night who are really angry at joe biden? >> thank you so much for having me. i think the way that we do that is by communicating exactly what nikki haley said about donald trump when she was communicating the threat that he presents to american democracy. nikki haley was calling out donald trump's hatred, the chaos that he represents. that is not a radical notion. the vast majority of the american people share that. as we move forward, whether you are a democrat, an interest, or a moderate republican who continues to reject the maga extremism that's embodied by donald trump, there's a home for you in joe biden's campaign. take the opportunity today to sign up. be all aboard this effort to defeat donald trump once and for

all. we are in a general election. this is what is at stake. >> president biden has been more forceful and direct in his attacks on donald trump recently, calling him a loser several times. will he dial this up more between now and election day? >> donald trump certainly is a loser. he lost in 2020 by over 7 million votes to joe biden. he is a loser on the campaign trail, because his agenda is incredibly unpopular. it's dangerous. when you are talking about the role that you played in overturning roe, you root for the economy to crash. when you pledge to serve as a dictator, that's a losing agenda the american people have rejected. they did so in 2020 and in 2022. they have done so as recently as the fall elections in 2023. that's the contrast the president is prepared to carry forth. absolutely, we will call out donald trump and his losing agenda every single day.

>> any plans to reach out to liz cheney, who just posted on x this morning, there are eight months to stop donald trump? is there room in the biden campaign tent for liz cheney? >> i can't speak to any specific outreach efforts regarding her. the point is, everybody who understands the fundamental stakes of this election, everybody who understands the threat that donald trump poses to american democracy, you absolutely have a place in this fight on joe biden's campaign. we are all committed to making sure that we protect american democracy, that we protect our freedoms and that we continue to build on the progress we have seen over the course of the last three years under this administration. there's room for democrats, for interests, moderate republicans, everybody who is rejecting the maga extremism that confronts us in donald trump. this is the fundamental choice as we head into a general election. we are welcoming everybody who understands the stakes. >> the polling shows that age and fitness continue to be

something that voters are raising. "the new york times" poll showed more biden supporters -- 47% said joe biden is too old to be effective. that was only 21% among trump supporters, even though he is only three or four years younger. what can he do to project more strength and that he is more energetic? we know what he is behind closed doors. we heard all the validations from all the cabinet people, the people close to him. it's very clear that this campaign is keeping him close to home. he is not going to big crowds anymore. he is not out that much among people other than to go to closed fund-raisers. doesn't he have to be out there more to show his strengths beyond when he is on teleprompter on the state of the union, the biggest test of all? >> the president has been crisscrossing the country. we kicked off 2024, he was in places like valley forge,

charleston. he has crossing the country to kick off the election year. you mentioned tomorrow night, the state of the union. the president will be front and center in front of the american people, not only reminding them of the historic record of accomplishment but laying out everything at stake in this november and what he can with accomplish. building on the progress we made. continuing to build on the $138 billion in student loan debt this president has forgiven. building on the progress from the first bipartisan gun violence legislation in a generation and banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. the president will continue to go out and make the case directly to the american people over the course of the next eight months. you can expect to see him, the vice president, everybody else crossing the country over the course of the next couple of months as we continue to gear up here as we head into the general election posture. this is a time to ramp up efforts. you can expect the president, vice president, everybody else to be out on the stump regularly

communicating directly with the voters who will decide this election. >> michael, let me ask you something that just broke in "the washington post" that's been passed to me. bernie sanders had a private meeting with joe biden and urged him to echo fdr more and to go after big business to basically use the bernie sanders lines. that's not been a comfort level for joe biden, especially not as he is trying to be more of a general election candidate. can you tell us anything about that private meeting with ing a biden? >> i can't speak to any private meetings. >> what about the general themes, the general advice? >> absolutely. as it relates to continuing to build an economy that grows from the middle out and bottom up. we will contrast that against donald trump whose economic policy is about serving people like himself, rich folks, billionaires, wealthy corporations. this president is about fighting for working people, the middle class, the american people. it's a fundamental economic

contrast not tomorrow night but over the next eight months. we will make that case, because not only do we have the record, donald trump has receipts of the damage, the chaos he left behind because his entire economic agenda was about serving people like himself. it was not about serving the american people. yeah, that will be a contrast moving forward chltd. >> michael tyler, thank you very much. >> thank you. donald trump called the u.s. third world in his victory speech at mar-a-lago last night, offering a dark view of the country in a speech that some are calling low energy. >> the world is laughing at us. the world is taking advantage of it. we have a country that a political person uses weaponization against his political opponent. never happened here. it happens in other countries, but they are third world countries. in some ways, we are a third world country. back with us is chuck todd. this is something the former president used consistently from

day one. even upon taking office, talking about the carnage. this is something that's not new. is this, from his perspective, something that's effective? >> here is the thing. it's the only note -- it's the only hit he played. it's the only note he knows. when he thought about running for president in 1988, he criticized america. he criticized all -- he was always very critical. it didn't work until you had an environment where it would work. >> 2016. >> 2016 was that. the financial crisis, i will go to my grave believing had we handled the financial crisis differently, we guaranteed mortgages up to $500,000 from being foreclosed upon, we don't have donald trump. when you really study some of the folks that moved from obama to trump -- they really -- this reshaping, a lot of them were hit hard by the great recession and didn't recover and have been angry at government ever since.

i think -- clearly, it's the only note he knows. what i question, normally donald trump is the first person who wasn't the most optimistic candidate to actually win. usually -- you could argue his message in '16 was more optimistic at the end than hillary clinton. hers was about him and deplorables. he was go, let's make america great. normally, the candidate that presents a more optimistic version of the future is -- will get the last -- that last set of swing votervoters. this was effective for biden in '20. he needs to do that this time. trump is incapable of this. i think he needs to do it if he wants to win. it's not in his dna. you have to do -- you have to fly a plane to do this. he doesn't know how to fly a plane. there are certain thins he can't do. he can't campaign

optimistically. that's potentially a fatal flaw. >> fear can be a motivating factor for some people. >> it is. >> i want to ask you -- >> our economy is not bad. >> other issues, too. it's what creates that emotional charge for somebody. abortion, for example, we have seen that hurt republicans politically in the last couple of years since the dobbs decision. >> i do think that trump is more reliant on outside events helping his messaging than biden is. for instance, trump is trying to paint this dark picture of the border, migrant. he almost needs in october to be something happen in a major city and the migrant was the one who committed the crime. he almost -- he needs -- he set this predicate that somehow this is making crime rampant in the cities. i don't think most swing voters believe his rhetoric. if they see it, if you start to see it and it shows up in october, that is one -- that's

my point. i think trump is painting a picture, he needs events to match the picture, versus biden -- abortion has been restricted. that stuff has happened. i don't think biden is as reliant. outside events could knock biden off his game. trump needs outside events to actually pull this off. >> i wonder if the abortion issue will make trump more vulnerable. >> i think it does. 100% it does. >> go ahead, andrea. >> let me ask you about the immigration issue. the republicans have owned it. even the opening -- the big opening that the speaker gave the democrats by killing the senate bipartisan bill has not really penetrated so far at least. is it too late for joe biden to get in front of the immigration issue? doesn't he have to take responsibility for everything that's happening, all the bad things that donald trump and the republicans can cherry pick? >> the fact that he agreed to

the deal that was going to happen, that lindsey graham called the best deal a democrat would agree to is as good as he is going to do. until i'm proven otherwise, i have not seen the swing voter who will say, i'm voting for biden but for immigration. the republican party almost -- that issue unites them. it's one -- it arguably, is the only issue that unites them. i think there's such a belief structure on the right that you have to say the border is in crisis that there really isn't -- i'm not convinced that the voter that is -- i'm not saying that if -- if there's criminal activity that can be connected to migrants in october, i accept the premise that maybe swing voters can be impacted by it. but i have not seen evidence of it yet. >> chuck todd, thank you for

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by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back. it is all but official, joe biden and donald trump will once again face off in the race for the white house this november. in a recent "new york times" sienna college poll, primary voters were asked about how they feel about each being their party's nominee. nearly half were enthusiastic about donald trump as the gop nominee, while just 23% were enthusiastic for president biden. >> and joining us now, claire mccaskill, former democratic senator from missouri, jim messina, former campaign manager for president obama. jonathan lemire, "politico" white house bureau chief, and former republican congressman david jolly. what does it signal that mcconnell is now endorsing him and we heard that joni ernst is

also falling into play. could this have any impact on the race to replace mcconnell? >> well, first, this was inevitable for mcconnell who of course is not personally close of donald trump. he's been sharply critical of trump at times. trump of course has insulted mcconnell, insulted mcconnell's wife. the two men broke on a number of issues and mcconnell issued really stern words for trump after january 6th, but importantly, mcconnell did not vote to convict trump in that second impeachment trial. he did not whip enough votes to do the same. had that happened, trump would have been prohibited from running again. mcconnell didn't do that. that was a real pivot point for our political history. but mcconnell has also been clear that he cares about the party, and that he was going to eventually endorse whoever the republican nominee was with nikki haley bowing out, that is all but certain to be donald trump at this point. so sort of inevitable and cynical move from mcconnell, even though he's leaving leadership still want thes

republicans to recapture the senate this fall. as for the race to replace him, it's going to be donald trump's influence here. trump is going to have a say in this. i also think we shouldn't limit ourselves to the three johns. i would not be surprised if a more trump are friendly candidate were eventually to throw his hat in the ring hoping to get the back of the former president whose grip on the party only seems to get tighter. >> claire, with the general election starting today, what does joe biden have to do? what does his campaign have to do to reach out to the angry, the disaffected, the muslim american palestinians like the ones who voted uncommitted last night? >> first of all, i don't think we have any indication that those voters are not going to support joe biden. i mean, trump just said a few days ago that, you know, it's time to take them completely out, referring to the

palestinians and people in gaza, which obviously makes him not a choice -- of the people speaking only way they know how. >> can't they opt out? >> well, they can, yes. they can opt out, but andrea, but fewer people have voted uncommitted against joe biden this time than did against barack obama in 2012. there were way more people that voted uncommitted against barack obama when he was running for a second term. so i really think when it's down to the choice, young people, people who feel strongly that the war in gaza is being prosecuted in a way that is inhumane, i believe they will not turn to donald trump and i think they'll see donald trump for what he is, a danger to the causes they believe in. and i got to tell you, trump had a bad night last night. if you look at the polling, it way overestimated what his support was going to be.

unlike the polling for biden, there wasn't as much of it in these states but biden overperformed in most of the states where there was polling whereas in some states like virginia and massachusetts and california, the polling was off by 20, sometimes as much as 30 points. i think we have to take a deep breath about this polling because so far every time the polling has said whether it's midterms or whether it's yesterday that, you know, trump is going to swing to victory and biden's in big trouble, it's turned out that people showed up to vote on the things they care about most, their freedom and their democracy. >> congressman jolly, a haley biden coalition could be the key to a victory. do you think nikki haley has influence in the republican party? >> no, i'm glad you framed it that way. i think the haley biden voter is the voter that could be part of the biden coalition that puts him over the top.

i actually am with my good friend mark sanford who you had on earlier. i suspect nikki haley will fall in line with donald trump, but i also don't think nikki haley ran a movement campaign. she became a vessel for people who kind of self-identified as not wanting to support donald trump, and while nikki haley may fall in line, we know statistically not all of her voters will. are those voters today through november willing to listen to the tug of patriotism over partisanship? i think so. it's a self-identified group, and it's a big number, and i think to claire's point, this has been a bad are primary season for donald trump, if you were looking at the raw numbers, can he carry a coalition through november? i'd much rather be joe biden today. >> jim, as someone who used to run campaigns, how can the biden campaign do a better job of explaining the economy, which is really the most solid economic recovery since the pandemic of any of the global economies. how can he persuade people what

they don't feel in their pocket books? >> well, that's why tomorrow night is so important, right? if you think about incumbent presidential campaign, you get two free moments to talk to the american public. the state of the union speech and the democratic national convention, and so they're going to use both of those to make this point. i really agree with what chuck todd said earlier. you know, these swing voters want to hear an optimistic view of the future, and that's where biden really excels, and that's just ground that donald trump is never going to walk on, much less get anywhere near. biden has a real opportunity to start making that case tomorrow night. i think they will. eventually this needs to be a choice between him and trump, but part of that choice is what you're going to do to make this country better and they'll do that tomorrow night. >> turning to the senator race in california, adam schiff and steve garvey are going to be facing off in the general election. katie porter and barbara lee who also ran for the seat were shut out. how do you see that race? >> adam schiff wins in a

lockaway. i think the tough part for democrats in california and nationwide is you had three very effective democratic members of the house who decided to give up seats in katie porter, barbara lee and adam schiff. adam schiff wanted to frame the race against him and garter. a lot of democrats supporting carter and lee said don't do that. let's get two good democrats in the final election. schiff prevailed, and i think this a walkaway for adam schiff. >> quickly if you will, senator, what other down ballot race did you find interesting and will you be watching? >> what we really haven't covered extensively yet is the amount of primaries that were going on between people that do not like donald trump as much as maga world, and one of the them, for example, down in texas, you had the guy who produced that ridiculous film 7,000 mules that supposedly proved, which it didn't, that there was voter

fraud, his son-in-law got elected going away against dic army's son down there. more freedom caucus members won primaries last night. that does not bode well for the republicans holding the majority and it doesn't bode well for mike john who at this point can't lead himself out of a paper bag. >> and jim messina, some final thoughts, we've got less than a minute. >> yeah, i think the senator's right. last night you saw a whole bunch of maga folks continue to win. trump has an absolute hold on this party in a way that is really problematic. they continue to lose election after election with his maga themed candidates and their issues, and i think it's coming into the general to congressman jolly's point, you'd just rather be joe biden than you would donald trump. >> all right. claire mccaskill, jim messina, jonathan lemire, david jolly, wish we had more time. there's only so much more to discuss. we had such brilliant minds,

thank you for taking the time. >> and thanks to everyone who was with us these last three hours. >> and also a huge thanks to you for being with us for special coverage of nikki haley ending her presidential campaign and the beginning of the general election. "chris jansing reports" starts right now. ♪♪ good day, i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city, and so it begins, the nation now bracing for what will go down as the costliest, longest, and likely nastiest presidential race in american history, one that will test the candidates and the country. first up, the scramble for nikki haley voters, now a coalition without a candidate after she quit the race. so how will joe biden and donald trump compete for the millions who have made it clear they don't want either man. plus, lawmakers falling in line, senator mitch mcconnell and house republican leaders wasting no time endorsing donald trump. now