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>> a very happy political saturday night, everyone. welcome to our very special coverage of the south carolina republican primary, i'm chris hayes. i'm joined tonight by my colleague, rachel maddow, and my colleague, joy reid, here with me at this table here, lawrence o'donnell, 70 role, alex wagner, and ari melber. we've got a whole gang together. across several different locations. polls will close in south carolina in just about half an hour. at seven eastern. coming up, we're going to hear from steve kornacki, out of course, the big board. we will also hear from south carolina voters out in the field, we have a lot to get to over the next few hours, in what has been a crazy last 48 hours of news. this republican primary tonight, of course, brings us back to the home state of one, nikki haley, where she was twice elected governor, at high approval ratings as such. it also brings us the moment where donald trump hoped to basically end this thing. to close the race out and consolidate his control,

officially, and finally, of the republican party. a decade has passed since haley last ran for anything in south carolina, which is, in the politics that we live in, long enough for lots to change. the state electorate, for one, has changed. it's long enough to put her behind trump in the polls, consistently, by double digits. that's ahead, south carolina is an open primary, it means you do not need to be a registered publican in order to cast a ballot. one of the things we'll be watching for today among many is how much support paley polls from independent, democratic -leaning voters, as again, a possible early sign of how she might fare as the nominee, were she to become one in a general election. even a trump declared this week that haleysburg for the nomination will end here tonight, haley has made it very clear insistently, and consistently, that she'll stay in the race matter what. she has both campaign appearances, she's named a leadership team for the premiere that comes up in a few days in michigan, coming this tuesday. it's a big night for politics,

we are always so happy to have you. joining, us i want to start with rachel, who we are very badly missing here in the studio, for what is in admittedly, unusual saturday primary night for us. how are you, rachel? >> i'm all right. i mean a viral logically unusual situation, as well. i got covid for the first time in october, then i got covid for the second time this week. so, i'm fine. i'm taking paxlovid, and getting better. i just started testing negative one within the last few hours. i think i'm coming out of it. but anyway, i thought, to be safe, i would spare you all from having to breathe my exhale. for the next few hours. listen, south carolina primary is, historically, over the course of our adult lives, chris, republicans tend to know who they want their nominee to be, by the time they get to south carolina. the winner of the south carolina primary, basically, always wins the republican presidential nomination.

that just feels like kind of beside the point, right now, in terms of what's going on between nikki haley and donald trump. there's donald trump in the republican party, a whole bunch of people auditioning to be his vice president, nikki haley is, essentially, auditioning not to be his vice president, but to be his understudy. right? he's very incoherent on the stump right now, his speeches are getting weirder and harder to follow. he's getting more and more extreme, his legal liability, his legal jeopardy, the consequences of his legal entanglements are getting more and more extreme. and more, honestly, worrying, in terms of what that might mean for somebody who might be holding the presidency. all of the stuff is kind of closing in on trump, and i think nikki haley has decided, listen, this is a humiliating thing. i'm never going to be his running mate if he's the nominee. but somebody ought to be standing there, knowing the lines, and able to step in, with a functioning, funded campaign, in case one of these meteors that keeps hitting

trump actually knocked him out. so, it does feel like an understudy race. there does feel like there's some dynamism tonight, maybe haley can do a little bit of what she did in new hampshire, where she got within 11 points of him. pull something together with democrats and independent voters like she has in the past. maybe her home stay favor billet-y will help her here. that dynamism on the edge is the big question, what's going to happen to the prohibitive front runner? >> we've got some news tonight which will get to in a little bit, of some interesting things happening at the rnc, to your point, rachel, about exactly this. one of the long and storied republican members of the republican national committee, hayley barber, trying to pump some breaks here, and basically make sure that that understudy position stays in place. we're going to get to that a little bit later. let's go over, of course, to steve kornacki, who's at the big board. what are you watching for tonight? and as you dig into the exit polls, which have been coming out in the last hour or so,

what are you seeing early on? >> a couple things you see here, the map is blank right now, that will be changing in less than half an hour from now. you do expect within minutes of the polls closing, we have a lot of early voting, they've been counting it up before the polls close. so that usually gets reported out first. look for that within a few minutes of that poll closing. time is 7:00. you mentioned the exit polls, what we're looking at right here, pull them up on the screen here, there's going to be three waves of data that come in, all day we've had folks out in the field, interviewing people leaving the polls, just getting a bigger and bigger pool of voters. that process is still ongoing, as the polls stay open now. we're going to show you the first compilation of what's been conducted so far. these numbers can change a little bit, but it's like that polaroid fattah, it's coming into focus, what this electorate looks like. i think there's two things to go in right here. first is this, the big question, you mentioned this as well, the party i.d., this is an open primary, anybody, as long as they didn't vote in that democratic primary three

weeks ago, which only 130,000 people dead, anybody else who's registered can vote. the question we ask in the exit poll is are you, do you think of yourself as a republican, independent, democrat? you see 69% here call themselves republicans. 21% independent, 4% democrats, 6% say something else. of course, you know, so much of this primary has been about nikki haley running a massive margin with independents, especially huge numbers with democrats, when they're able to participate. donald trump, dominating among republicans. that's why people were so interested in this question. you add up the non-republican share here in our exit poll, it's 31%, compared to 69% republican. that's what we're seeing in our exit poll. two point of reference on this, a month ago, new hampshire, remember, we talked about haley just running up the score with independents, and even democrats. that electorate in new hampshire was 50% on republican. 50/50 electorate. 50% non republican, tonight in his exit poll we're seeing 31 in south carolina, the other point

of reference is a historical one. what's the all-time high in terms of the share of republican primary electorate in south carolina? that's not republicans. the answer is the year 2000, george w. bush, john mccain, mccain, like haley, now big appeal to independents and to democrats, bush, more with republicans. the number in 2000, the all-time high in south carolina was 13 9%. none republican. this number you can see right now, well short of that 39, that 39 who is not enough for john mccain in 2000, he lost the state by 11 points to george w. bush. that's one thing we are seeing right now, in at least this first wave of the exit polling. the second thing we're seeing right now, i've got to point out to you, we look at this number as well. very important in republican primaries. what share of this -- calls themselves evangelical, born- again christians. two thirds, 66%. we said the train gets very different when we go from new hampshire to south carolina, how different this number was in new hampshire, it was 19%. that's one of the most secular

republican nations in the country. you go to one of the more evangelical heavy electorates, look at that difference there, 47 point swing. take a look at the map, as i said, it's got to start letting up here just after 7:00. we think we'll start getting early vote port's from these counties, a lot of these counties, the early vote will be a third, maybe a third of all of the votes. nikki haley, if she's going to pull off the mother of all political miracles tonight and win the state, or failing that, if she's going to have a strong showing, what's seen as a strong showing, the key for her, demographically, we've seen her appeal, it is to the college educated, the higher income, it's two suburbanites. both within the republican party, and among independents and democrats who she is trying tiller into this republican party. where do you look on this map for that? the, right here, this county, where the city of charleston's, charleston county. this is the mother lode of college educated, higher income suburbanite types. this is one of the only two counties in the state that donald trump did not carry in the 2020 general election.

this is the first congressional district of south carolina. look for haley here, she'd need to run up big numbers in charleston county, also a part of that first district right next door, this is before county. we are hilton head is. again, this is a bastion of voters who have college degrees, and also part of this district, the fast growing suburbs of berkeley county, again, this is the terrain haley really needs to look for. where else does she need to do extremely well? well, the state capital, richland county, columbia. again, one of the highest concentrations of college degrees in the state. again, among republicans, in the kind of place she wants to be pulling in a lot of democratic voters. a lot of independent voters. if it's gonna happen for her, it's gonna happen in richland county. what i want to look at is the update, this county, greenville, the city of greenville, is actually going to produce the most votes of any county in the state tonight. it's a little different, greenville county is, than the rest of the upstate, in much higher concentration of college degrees right here. again, haley telling a super, super strong night, it's even gonna show for her in greenville

county. as i said, greenville is the exception in the upstate, you could basically draw a line here, your, county rockville, right outside of charlotte, you could basically draw a line. in this zone here, in the upstate, nine of the ten highest concentrations of evangelical voters in the entire state, nine counties out of the ten, with the highest concentration of evangelicals, are all in here. this was a trouble zone for donald trump in the 2016 republican primaries. that's part of this story to. remember, we talked about it in iowa. in 2016, trump had struggled with evangelicals in iowa, eight years later, the presidency later, he had a political bond with evangelicals that powered him in the iowa caucuses, six weeks ago. again, you would look to trump's campaign would now look to this as a major source of strength outside of greenville. along with, his best counting the state, in 2016, horry county, fourth largest in the state, myrtle beach, conway, a lot of retirees, a lot of folks they called trump transplants, folks with conservative, pro

trump politics, who have moved into the state. you look there for it as well. again, less than 20 minutes now, before we get some results. >> steve kornacki, thank you for that. we'll be back to very shortly. joy, let me go to you. there are two questions here that we've been asking in these early primary contests, from the exit polls, just wanted to get your read on these, because we've talked about them a lot. i think they serve as proxy questions, in some ways. number one, did joe biden legitimately win in 2020? that's one of the exit polls. yes, gets 32% of the folks voting in south carolina, according to our exit polls. no gets 65%. two thirds, one third there. then a question about if trump is convicted, is he fit to be president? should he face criminal conviction in any one of the outstanding 91 indictments he faces? you get, again, very similar numbers, yes he still fit at 65, now, he's not, at 32. two thirds, one third. what is your read on that? >> right, i think you can go

back to what steve is just saying, about the makeup of this electorate. this is a 92% white, overwhelmingly evangelical christian primary electorate in south carolina. i think writ large across the country, that's the way they think. even on the independent voters who are about 21% of this electorate, it's almost a 50/50 question, as to whether president biden is illegitimate president of the united states. that is what the republican party is now. it is a baseline condition of being a base republican right now. that you do not believe that the 2020 election was legitimate, you believe that donald trump is the rightful president of the united states, you believe that he's the most electable candidate, that's also in these exit polls, more so than nikki haley, which there is no empirical data that supports that. and you believe that he should be president, regardless of whether he's convicted of a felony. which he very likely will be in the next month. i think that there is nothing new here, in terms of what mcgaw

voters, republican voters think, but i think that because south carolina is such a heavily white evangelical conservative state, and it's so overwhelmingly a republican state, i was talking with somebody from the nikki haley world, about whether or not there was any success that democrats may have had in getting democratic voters to come out and vote, because it it isn't a primary, trying to vote for nikki haley. their response was there are almost no democrats in this state, other than jim clyburn. that would've helped at all. this is who the republican base is right now. >> alex, one of the things that's funny about these exit polls, to me, always, is -- it's not like people have these different views on the issues, and they're adding them up and tallying which candidate, it's working the other way around. the candidate choice, and this is the dominant theme we've seen, the candidate choice is sort of feelings of affection, loyalty, devotion to donald trump, is the kind of

conviction -- >> the organizing principle. >> that produces the subsequent result. >> i would say, from all the reporting on the ground, you hear this south carolina primary was once described as a knife fight in a phone booth. i believe, according to jonathan martin, that's where that phrase comes from. this is a place that makes campaigning a blood sport. that's not been a case this year. there's a lot of reporting about the kind of grudging acceptance that trump is going to win this thing, be the nominee. i think we shouldn't let that to lie on its own. it's a sign of a party in decline. the fact that there is widespread discontent, generally, a feeling that trump's mouth has gotten the party in trouble, even if they like his policies. but that nobody is actively trying to do anything about it. they are resigned to this individual. having said that, as much as we talk about this electorate being composed of a group of voters that are not the bread and butter for the haley campaign, she has not really

tried to campaign the way i think someone who really wanted to win the south carolina would. this is someone who did not make the outreach to the party apparatus, in any kind of timely fashion. this is someone who really, i'm not gonna say abandoned, but had national aspirations, and was very clear about them, after her term of governor. she didn't headquarter herself near columbia, she lives on kiawah island. she's very much someone who is fortunes, and horizons, lay beyond the state. as she's come back to it, there is anecdotally a lot of distrust. there's a sense that she's abandoned the state. it's -- the state is not going to return the favor. >> there's also, lawrence, i'd be curious to get your thoughts on this, i also think there's an interesting thing, another thing we've seen is the kind of inversion of the all politics is local of our age, which is all politics is national. the iowa, where it's like the voters there expect you to visit every county ten times, and come to their living room,

actually know every voter, and ron desantis tried to do that. donald trump was, like no, i'm going to my civil fraud trial in new york. >> people don't want to meet ron desantis. >> that was also the thing. >> that's part of the problem. >> in nikki haley's case, i think there's a time in politics that's a bit bygone, that coming to your home state would be a norm as, a scene the whole, that just seems to amount to nothing now. >> trump erased that from our politics, because lindsey graham dropped out of the race, in 2016, so that he wouldn't lose his own state. that's the one thing you always wanted to avoid, in a presidential primary, don't lose your own state, drop out beforehand if you have to. chris, what you just did, on the twisting all politics is local, which hadn't occurred to me, in quite those terms, is perfect. all politics is trump, in the republican party. that is all national. and i don't think, i think if nikki haley had followed alex's

playbook, within south carolina politics, religion which sly, she would get one more endorsement or one more vote. that it was gone. it was gone. trump took it away. lindsey graham proved that trump took it away. so, all you are left with is a party where it's not donald trump. it's not lindsey graham, governor, it's not those people. the trump voters control every single republican official, none of them are afraid of donald trump. all of them are afraid of trump voters. and none of them can be elected without trump voters. >> and yet, nikki haley seems, at least somewhat, to righteous point off the tom, she has gone out of her way, this week, and in a way that i think was smart, strategically, to just absolutely cut off at the pass, the normal question we would go into tonight thinking, gosh

where you are the former governor there, if you lose the state, she fairly clearly is staying in, you've got to think that rachel's point about the legal exposure, which draws nearer every day, is a huge part of that. >> i think everyone's right. the political tradition as you don't lose your home state. we've seen entire campaigns work off that vector. trying to avoid that problem, as lawrence reminded us. at the same time, donald trump won the electoral college in 2016, and lost his home state of new york. because obviously, no one expected the blue state to go anywhere near him. likewise, you walk through the demographics in some of the other history here, south carolina, plus trumpism, plus ten years, this isn't really fertile ground for her. i think she put that marker down early this week, only she knows why, with the internal polling and with what steve walked us through. they want to be ready for that. at the end of the day, with all this said, and it's a former president, and it's trumpify, they are still trying to cap later primaries. still trying to take over the

rnc. still trying to put in family members in charge of the actual party apparatus, before this primary is done. by? there's some sort of fear. it doesn't mean he's likely to lose the nomination based on the delegate count we have as of this moment, but it certainly is not the attitude of the strong person who's definitely winning. >> chris, hold on, she's not going to go to south carolina to try to win these voters, because they are hard-core trump voters. hard-core trump voters aren't going to turn over. she smarter to spend that time in new hampshire with kristen who knew, or new york, which is a cash register for her. >> she's been running a ton of money. >> donald trump though, who wants this frame to like she's going to lose her home state, like she's the home court advantage, she doesn't. the two senators in south carolina are fawning over him. we pointed out the amount of evangelicals, we've got the mega maga base there, the guy basically controls the house gop. he's running against a woman who is an indian american woman,

little nikki haley, running in a party where right now, white nationalism and misogyny are running through the party. so the thought that if she doesn't show up tonight in knock him between the eyes mains she's a stone cold loser, that's just not the case. >> can i say one thing, though. you have to tell the audience what a phone booth is though, glass box,. >> just -- we are doing a service to the nikki haley campaign right now by saying it -- she could have done everything she was posed to do and it wouldn't matter. the campaign is actively trying to change expectations, saying she might lose only by 15 points. versus 30. this woman is going to lose her home state, -- >> we think. >> by presumably double digits, the campaign itself is trying to diminish those expectations. she's 131,000 democrats voted in the democratic primary, if she wanted to make a showing, and try and pull some of those democrats in. and some of those independents that do exist in the state, and maybe not lose by 30 points,

but 15, she could've and should've done something. >> except, rachel, to your point, that conflicts with the prime directive, which is the understudy directive. and to remain a viable after the republican nominee. >> right, to go back to the exit poll that you mentioned at the top of the segment, chris, i think we should also just take a step back from that. look at how much that's like iowa. even in a state this conservative, that looks like it's going to go this big for trump, just like iowa did at the start of this primary contest, you've still got a third of the electorate turning out in south carolina tonight, saying if trump is convicted, that's a problem for me, that might mean he's not fit to be president. and a third of the electorate saying, i live on earth one, where joe biden actually is the president of the united states. it third of the people who are turning out, to likely give donald trump a double digit victory tonight, nevertheless still have those fundamental problems with what he's offering, and with his worldview. that is a real issue to nifty

least point, that donald trump is a problematic general election candidate. >> that's a really important point. because the proverbial glass, to third, one third empty, two thirds full, one third empty, which is it can all be full, one third, two thirds. i want to go to sugar creek, we're in south carolina, and nbc news correspondent, jacob soboroff, is in his favorite place. which is inside a polling location. jacob, what do you see there? >> you know that better than anybody, chris, this is my happy place. it's extra happy, because in south carolina, i have to give a shout out to people here at sugar creek. the election administrators, the rules and regulations are different for the country, they've been kind enough to let us insight to watch the process. just minutes ago, before the process, and for the evening, i heard steve kornacki talking to all about greenville earlier. i'm in greenville county. the most populous county in the state, where some of the highest republican voter turnout is in all of the state of south carolina. come with me, i'm gonna give you a little sneak peek at what the turnouts looking like here. this is merely, marley, how is

it going? >> pretty good. >> mary lee has been here all day, we can talk politics inside the polling place, but we can talk turnout. in 2016, the turnout at this location was around 1000 people, 45% of eligible voters at this polling place. what's the number now, mary lee? >> 847. >> 847 with six minutes to go. that would be 36%. not quite what the 2016 numbers are, just to confirm, merrily, we don't know if those are republicans or democrats. you can vote -- >> you can vote for either one, but only one. >> that's good, thank you very much for everything. before sending back to guys, i want to show you that a i love seeing kids with their parents when they come out to participate in the process. rich is so nice to have us here. atlas is the clerk, she's going to be driving the ballots in the ballot box back to county headquarters. the number one person of go to shout out is grace. greece has taken the votes. you've been up since 3:45 in the morning. >> in the morning.

yes. >> are you tired? don't your feet hurt? >> i am worn out. >> she's worn out. look what she made for everybody here, these are called -- one of the called? scott tariffs. these are actually scotch in them, at the end of the night at a polling place, you could use a little scotch on top of a race. crispy treat. thank you to everybody and sugar creek. put your ballot in the machine, let you do your thing. chris, everybody, back to. >> scott your you? >> can we have a cooking segment? >> i was gonna say, i like the kitchen in the polling place, it's a new one for me. nbc's jacob soboroff. we'll be checking back in with him. i think we just got word coming up on five minutes of the poll closing, steve, if i'm correct, do you have some new exit polling? >> yeah, with the way we're explaining this is there's three waves here of data, just as we accumulate more and more interviews, now we're getting numbers from that second wave, even a complete picture of what this electorate is looking like, it hasn't really changed,

i can tell you the headline is it hasn't changed really from what we've seen in the first wave. if anything, those numbers are really hardening. but i can show you are a couple more waves of looking at this electorate. number one, let's take a look at the education divide, this is huge, within the republican primary. we talked about nikki haley relying so much on voters with college degrees, economically upscale, suburbanites, that kind of thing. this is obviously important general elections to. we talk about it all the time. what's the breakdown in this electorate today? 43% college grads, that's what we're seeing in the exit poll, by comparison, 2016, the republican primary then, remember, donald trump won that one, that, year the exit poll was 54% with a college degree. this number looks like it's going to come down substantially from the last time around in the republican side. we don't have a graphic for this one, but i wanna show you again just to illustrate how different this electorate is from the one that voted in new hampshire a month ago, that new hampshire race, was close, but haley did a little bit better than expected. we ask about -- are you a

liberal, are you, moderate, are you conservative, but we see her in the exit poll in south carolina's liberal is 3%, not too surprising moderate is 18%, and conservative is 79%. that's what we're seeing in south carolina. now, compare that to new hampshire, last month, different story. in new hampshire, the conservative number was 67%. the moderate number by comparison was up to 27%, and this was 6% for the liberals. you can see, a less conservative electorate in new hampshire, more conservative in south carolina. as we said, much more evangelical, even relative to pass south carolina primaries, looks like a higher concentration of voters without college degrees. so, those are some of the things, again, this is now second wave data we are talking about here, these numbers are really settling. we'll have one more wave, but before that, the polls are going to close in less than three minutes. >> we've got three minutes, rachel, i'm gonna come too quickly, just if you're

anticipating how these two candidates play this evening, precisely, because of expectations are what they are, and because haley says i'm not getting out. we know trump wants her out. how do you think we'll see the candidates react to tonight's result? >> i just think it makes it important. we'll be seeing trump, presumably, give a victory speech, and those are always weird. you never really know whether it's going to seem like a victory speech or some other thing, nikki haley's remarks tonight, we know for sure that she has worked on them quite carefully. she gave remarks heading into the south carolina primary, saying no matter what happens, i'm not giving up. don't expect that. her speech tonight in charleston, i'm legitimately anticipating, waiting for with a lot of ex -- it's gonna be important in terms of what she explains in what's happening in the race, how she can lose her home state by a significant margin, what still needs to happen in this race to justify her staying in, and how she sees it ending. >> joy, how about you? >> well, you know, nikki haley,

i think she's an interesting position here. yes, she never really had a chance, in a state like this, where she had some issues going in. we could talk about it another time. she stood up to, as she calls it, the good old boys, what one might call the good old boys, even before she was running against donald trump. she raised a lot of hackles in her leadership, she was a tea partier. she kind of came in as an outsider, when she was governor, then of course, there was the confederate flag coming down. i don't think that has really dogged her too much in her run for president, but it is the most -- the thing she's the most known for. so, she's not really seen internally in the state as a consensus builder. all of the people she raced to prominence, where it's tim scott, who she pointed to the united states senate before he ran, nancy mace, congresswoman she endorsed to get into the -- they're all with trump, so she's really an outsider in her home state. so what she does with what

happens tonight, i don't think has a whole lot to do with her political future. no one i've talked to out of south carolina, i've talked to a bunch of republicans, i've been texting with them today, thanks that she has further ambitions politically. but i think to rachel's point, she is hanging around, dust in case something happens that makes trump unacceptable or he's incarcerated. so i think what you're going to hear her try to do, this, whatever happens tonight, is to establish, for herself, a separate brandon that she can use outside of politics. sort of third contest, in this republican primary, nevada was a complicated situation. we'll get some results starting to come in. the polls have now

closed at seven pm. the contest with head. i'm learning this now myself. we have a call. projected winner at polls close, and of course it is the essential incumbent in this race. donald trump, previous president before joe biden. the person who seems to be and poll position for the nomination. we are making that call at seven pm, and about seven seconds. which suggests what we'll see start to come and when the actual data follow us on. speaking of that data, let me go back to rachel. we only learned appellate when we saw it on the screen. the call that donald trump has

emerged victorious in the south carolina primary. rachel, your thoughts? >> a poll close and call is definitive and puts an exclamation point on the result, effectively. it's not a total surprise. but i think what you sit about and compensate, chris, is important. there was , never been a republican presidential candidates who wasn't an incumbent president already who won iowa, new hampshire, south carolina. li only republican incumbents have ever done that. donald trump technically is not running as an incumbent right now but he has just pulled it off. his margins for double digits, well, we don't know what the margin will be in south carolina, but i think we are summarizing it will likely be a double digit victory. it is an emphatic. when i don't think it changes the calculus for nikki haley, because i think precisely zero people and the country expected she met when tonight, even though it's her home state. it does i can put a spotlight on what she is going to say in charleston, tonight, when she

makes remarks. if i were her, a give the two minute warning right now and start speaking immediately. as the night goes, on the results won't get better for her in terms of her future. but the political calendar includes both super tuesday furthest dozen states, including that michigan caucus coming up and all the crisis that will happen and michigan with two competing michigan republican party cheers, both of whom cold the caucus for different places, and nobody knows where to go. there is a lot of uncertainty and the process and it has blended with the legal calendar, they trial commander of the man who is the front runner. there is too many we urge, unprecedented variables to try to justify the other remaining person in the race -- >> speaking of that, that shot we are looking at right now is the trump victory party. you can see senator tim scott, one of his pick indoors, validators, and maybe vice

president nominee audition arrows on the stage. he was given that job as senator first by nikki haley when she was governor, to fill the vacancy. we are expecting, rachel, tara points -- trump may come out at any moment. usually the way this works, again, usually, what does that main anymore? usually the way it works is the person who loses it comes out forest and the person who wins comes out second. i wouldn't be surprised if he tries to basically bigfoot her, slash come out when she's already talking. anything is possible. but you say them there. that's the nikki haley shot. let's keep us on that. control room, cape me honest here. steve, as you know, as i come to you, as we're awaiting the possibility, i will cut you off and i will not be route will doing so. if we can just pull back -- it's 7:00 and seven seconds, you

haven't seen any actual votes, what does it mean that decision desk headquarters rice? >> at mains the exit poll is unusually overwhelming in this case. and every conceivable category, and also, keep in mind south carolina, we have been able to monitor turn out to some degree because there is a fairly extensive early voting in south carolina, some order of one through, it may be more of the votes. tabulated, cast before election day today. to give you a sense, again, will have counties lightening up here very shortly. y. as the early vote is reported. first inside the exit poll, i see trump as their. feel free to give me the hook here, fchris. we could show you. this is an interesting one, right here. t talking about education. divide here it is. those without a college degree, this is a bigger issue here. bigger share of the republican electorate than it was eight years ago. trump is winning it by 50 points right here. the same demographic, voters without a college degree in new

hampshire, trump's margin was 46. he's significantly done better here in south carolina. and the share of the election, the turnout of voters without a college degree as a proportion, much higher. look at this. but of a surprise. voters with a college degree, this was a strong suit for nikki haley. one of those group. haley won this group in new hampshire by 14 points. in her own home state, we are the backbone of any chance she head was going to pit with this type of voter, both republican c but more importantly an independent, a democrat, she wanted to flood the postman in charleston, columbia, those metros -- bay concentrations of college degrees. in our exit polls, she's losing the college football points to donald trump. again, that's a swing of almost 20 points from new hampshire. that speaks to, i think, how they filed for her campaign to come anywhere close to what they were aiming for in terms of getting democrats and nd independent motivated to cross

over to vote against trump. we saw the exit poll question, it tells it all. only 31% of the electorate says they're not a republican. that may seem like a high number, but the all-time high in south carolina was 49. haley needed it even higher than that. 39% was the number for john mccain in 2000, when he was like haley, trying to ride to victory on democrats and independents. he still lost -- haley barely got the number over 40%. not just every one of these categories, you are veseeing no just a win here for trump but landslide. i'll go back to the map here. >> alex, your thoughts? >> this is exactly what i was talking about. you don't run a great campaign in the state we are even twice elected governor. you are note going to include ensues the democrats, independents, college educated, to come out for you. that's what happened. >> at thsome point, let's take listen, s actually two trump wh

was speaking at the victory party they're in south carolina. >>. . . . . ,,. . . . . ,. united states. . . . 2016,,. . . . 2020,. . .

. [applause] ,, -- as it is right now. never been like this and a big part of that is the people standing behind me. they's are the biggest officials and south carolina. but i say, like, the biggest officials in our country as far as i'm concerned. they are state figures but they are national thinkers. and in the truest sense of the road, that love our country so much and they want to see a country succeed and be respected again. right now, it were a laughing stock all over the world. our country is going to be respected again. respected like never before.

[applause] so this is a fantastic evening. it is and early evening and fantastic. you can all go down and celebrity for about 15 minutes, then we have to get back to work. a big day, you know, michigan is coming up. we're the wouldn't right. the ultimate workers will be with us 100%. because they got sold out by this country. michigan is up and we are going to have a tremendous success there. then we have a thin coat super tuesday. i think we are leading 91 to 7. [applause] if you don't mind, may i have the pleasure of introducing some incredible people? because they stop right from the beginning, from the very moment we announced. they believe in make america great again. that support they believe. they believe in america first. we are putting america first.

first of all, my family. melania, my children. john junior and crumbly. ivanka and jared. tiffany and michael. so supportive. so supportive of me. we really appreciate it and love them. great family. t and we have incredible friends. we are going to be up here on november 5th and look at joe biden and look him right in the. i he's destroying our country. we are going to say, john, you're fired, get out. get out, joe. you are fired! they are destroying our country and i just wish we could to a quicker. not months is a long time. i just wish we could do it quicker, mr. governor. is there anything you can do in your vast powers to make that? in certain countries, you are allowed to cool your election

day. if i had the right to do it, add to it tomorrow. is there anything you can do? i want to start off, because right from the beginning -- >> that donald trump, who just won, way projects him to be the winner of the south carolina primary. we are always balancing based one imperative is a news organization, that individual is likely to be one of the two major party nominees for the presidency and novoters should see who that person's and not and voted and protected. why but if we do, that he says a lot of things that are untrue. for instance, he talked a lot about prisoners, childs, mental asylums, terrorists coming across the border. he said one is priceless but he factually said he fixed the border, it had never been as bad. ev the record apprehensions in 2019, before covid. he talked about the autoworkers with him. the uaw has endorsed joe biden.

he said he got 1 million more votes in 2020, which i think was a referral to the big lie. he lost that election. >> chris, also, i guess i would say the titles west campaign and the conspiracy theorists who were ever to, saying there was a concerted effort by the nfl to help joe biden become pun ex presidents, standing directly behind donald romp. woody johnson. the owner of the new york jets. vivek ramaswamy and his big day plans about what the nfl was up to. >> what a johnson along with a bunch of south carolina officials, he heard him mention henry mcmaster, the governor -- >> he called him mr. governor, because he doesn't know his name. if joe biden was on the state with a governor, and sit mr. governor, because he couldn't at that moment think of that name, there will be hit lance

everywhere. and when donald trump was doing his initial thanks, it was to o his family. if you want to roll the tape, you will see him raging from notes, beginning with the word millennia which he got wrong yesterday. he called her mercedes yesterday. in his speech. there's a presidential candidate who doesn't get his wife's name right, but you won't find out about that among the headline -- >> perhaps it would be easier to get her name right if she were standing next to him at the podium. alas, she is. not >> rachel, your thoughts? after that joy, what we saw there. it was not as petulant and aggressive towards nikki haley as the last time. he was basically not talking about her. but it was a stick we all know so well. >> yes, both awareness of. it he did have to read the names of his family members off of a card.

>> he did get them all right. >> yes, that's true. there is that. saying the audit workers are with him, when as you mentioned they endorsed joe biden. but in terms of -- what else tequila four and a speech like that? he didn't go on the offensive against heavy. he told about the republican party being unified. he then even tried to cry did what he described as the people standing behind me, who he described as national officials, state officials. their state officials, but they're really national. they're the most important state officials and the country. the state is the country. what are you talking about? it's not even stylistic. there is a general incoherence, uncle ramble standards going on with him that doesn't get a lot of a attention because the mainstream press, particularly print , price, has much more jo talk about joe biden and the

science of his age. but trump's rambling and incoherent even when he's at his best. even early in the evening. tonight, just getting that slice of it is a real reminder. nikki haley's message. nikki haley is mainly argument both trump and biden are unfit. you should pick me instead. republicans don't want to pick earns. did but the manifest on fitness of the whole trump for the basics of campaigning are on display every time he gets behind a microphone. >> to that point, very interesting note he made, joy. he popped on truth social at one point and the aftermath of her report and that sort of news cycle of coverage lawrence alluded to -- to site, it is not joe biden is too old, he's incompetent. he seems to it least under a state being two and a half years younger than the sitting president, and nikki haley's main argument is that two men are and essentially the same category, it does not help him to lean into that particular

argument. seemed self aware enough to cut it off awat the pass. >> can i just pause on this. that rachel just told him uncle rambles? did i hear uncle rebels? i feel like i heard uncle rambles. >> uncle ramble standing. it's a version of grandstanding. uncle randall standing. >> when i steal that, i want you to know in my mind i'll be giving a credit. but i'm going to steal. us i'm listen you know in advance. so, look. i think one of the other reasons donald trump doesn't after nikki haley and the age thing is that is not the purpose of him running for president. we always have to remember, when you are hearing donald trump, the thumb motivates motion running for president is fear. fear of going to prison. it is the fact he knows he faces multiple felony accounts. and recall one of the things happening, his campaign was screaming about earlier, the

fact there is a member of the rnc trying to draft a resolution that would prevent the party from paying his legal bills. so he's thinking about having to pay test james a lot of money. think t about having to pay a l of money out and settlements, including two e. jean carroll, and he's thinking about staying out of jail. how does he do that? donald trump only speaks to one animating feature of the republican base. demographic panic. that's what he leads and do what he's in 'sfront of an audience of his fans. people come over the border. coming out of consent asylums. come to kill you. they're going to get her any minute, unless you conveniently make the president of don't go to jail. that is donald trump's core message. nothing else matters. there are four age, nikki haley, none of it matters. he needs to get back in prison tuesday out of jail. >> i wish we could have the election basically tomorrow, governor. again, our decision desk, which is an incredibly rigorous place

called donald trump the projected winner at closing. but the actual votes count two. some of those are actually tangibly and the system now, stave. we do have some votes showing up on the board. >> a small number. but i think what's important, you are seeing a pretty broad geographic swath here. the shade of red, adonijah up on the screen, but with two different shades of red here. republican. write the darker, one the one that looks almost maroon as nikki haley. the brighter one of. trump you see it statewide now. 40-point margin for trump. what you see is the votes that have been reported so far in all but one county our cohen for trump. that's why these are all in his shade of. write the only exception we talked about, if there is one county on this map you win -- more than any other, it would be charleston county. this is a very, very small number of votes here. you see just over 1000. we'll see how this develops over the night. otherwise, you are seeing not just trump ahead miss counties

but your seeing massive trump margins and these counties as wellti. we talked about some of those that have come in, what metric we were using was looking back to the 2016 primary, saying it up eight donald trump ted cruz put together from 2016, that must republican counties, cherokee county up here or -- look at this, it numbers. in less than 10%. we are seeing numbers like this across the state right now. with the margins statewide, and what we're seeing in the exit poll, the one suspenseful question here, as the votes come in, is that rolls and south carolina our 50 delegates. if you win the statewide popular vote, you get 29 delegates. the other 21 are awarded by congressional districts. donald trump swept them in 2016. take a look at the map. will be a little bit behind the

result statewide. and the fifth district, seventh district, one of trump's absolutists areas of the state. one of his base areas in 2016. continuing tonight. this is a district to watch. if there is a district to watch. it is the first district. as we say, charleston. suburbia. very, very small scatter in charleston for hailie. go up to berkeley county. 2%. trump up by 27 points. if haley had a chance of picking off a congressional district, it will be done here. but the margins now suggest that is very unlikely to happen. . this was a test, in a way, for haley in terms of the future of work and the sea. we already knew the odds of toppling trump are astronomically small, but the question was coaching to enough and south carolina to prove that in that mix wife of states here, especially super tuesday on march 5th, there was a path

to winning a couple states. kicking off maybe several dozen congressional districts and na getting some headlines. this is not a unanimous thing for trump. this is her home state. and she hit a monster campaign here. and the numbers you are seeing from across the arstate or showing you the core of haley's third edgy, to do what i described, relies on a state that allow democrats and independents to vote. it relies on states with a high concentration of college educated voters. and you are just not seeing any exit poll and frankly, the recurrence we are getting so far, you are not seeing evidence there was any kind of flood of democrats and independents. and if you are not seeing that in south carolina, her home state -- her campaign is saying we'll pull that off in minnesota, virginia, north carolina. if he couldn't pull it off and south carolina, it's hard to see her doing that at a statewide level.

with the exception, it's not technically a state, but the district of columbia, which is a type of republican you don't see anywhere else in america. she might win. that will keep an eye on the first district, because if she does lose it -- the first district was a benchmark we were using for her campaign as picking off a bunch of -- and we'll see when the returns come in. but if she can't rdo that, the first district, take oldest ripped off the map on super tuesday. this is not just a landslide loss and her home state, the implications for what her campaign was saying they would do over the next ten days or shattering from this. >> just to reset that delicate map which, again, all of this feels a little bit academic insofar as the point scoring. but delegates are what produce a nominee, ultimately. and i just want to correct something trump state. i like when things are accurate.

the delicate map going into i tonight was 63 to 17. and he's hit 91 to 7. automotive that's a reference, that's wrong. it was actually 63 to 17. and how many tonight? >> 50. if trump does sweep every congressional district here, it will be 113 to 17 for donald trump. he'll go and michigan on tuesday, this is a perfect example. michigan as a state with party registration, like south carolina. anyone can turn out and vote in the republican primary, and heaviest's first big suburban areas outside detroit. look at oakland county, and our, western michigan, where there's the -- the strategy for haley and michigan's 4g she head and south carolina. turn those democrats and independents effect that demographic profile out, and you are not seeing it here. then you go to super tuesday, a week later.

march 5th. after tonight, going through super tuesday, there are going to be 1000 delegates awarded on the republican side 700 of those 1000 delegates earn states either winner-take-all, you get 50% plus one of the vote, you get all that delegates, or the functionally winner takes all. it's a system like south carolina, with some at large, some congressional. all you have to do is get a 50% plus one majority, and you get all the delegates. on top of that for haley, a lot of those primaries or closed. it is the mother lode of delegates on march 5th. it is a very liberal democratic state -- but it is a republican primary and it is closed. republicans only. and it is winner takes. all of trump gets 50% plus one in california, it's all of them. antics -- as he doesn't have to win by much tiggle 161.

this tells you what's coming, likely, for haley. >> we are coming up against the bottom of the hour. we're at a point i thought would get to around this point of the evening because of the exit polling. caper eyes on these numbers. i think if you asked us to predict the outcome based on the exit polling, two-thirds one for urge -- those questions we talked, about to throw it one third seemed like a pretty decent proxy of we are those voters are going to end up. we'll keep our eyes on that. the question of don't, think to rachel's, point that kicked off the evening, which frames oldest, stephanie, because you have mentioned this a few times. it s is not is she going to get more delegates? that's just not really on the cards. it is, what is she doing? i made that respectfully. and she has been raising a lot of money. what change to happen is campaigns collapse when they can't raise money. and they tend to stop being able to raise money when it becomes clear of the can't win.

that's a cascade effect. because of everything right noted at the top of the, showcase and something of a different category. there are people with cash to give willing to give money to that candidate to continue a campaign to be precise -- >> rachel nailed it. she is running to be understudy. the papal tonight into hurricane, how many of them, especially in places like new york, like palm beach, florida, like l.a., out running under this hope will just be done with donald trump and they can get your fantasy to get that george bush republican back again. ridiculous long shot. happy to keep writing checks to her because she's only going to stop when she runs out of money and the checks and stopping. >> what is the dot dot dot there? and the donor class theory of this, the people writing her cheek, she's also raising small dollar donors. people don't like donald trump and want nikki haley to stay in the race. she's a polarizing figure, obviously. what is the dot, dot, dot?

he gets convicted? >> the count of papal writing her chicks in new york are the same people who write big checks to no labels. in theory, they're like, we don't let this two party system, we don't think these t two guys are the right guys, we need somebody else. none of those people who brought the chicks understand how the electoral process works. that is the issue. we don't have anything at the end of this dot dot dot, but for happy to write the check -- >> rachel? >> stephanie, can i ask, why didn't it work when the trump campaign made that thread a few weeks hrago that anybody who ke tonight into nikki haley would be cut off and dead to me and they'd be put on an island and set on fire and make it would never speak to them again? why didn't network? >> because they are not afraid of him. because truly rich people not donald trump's going to cause

right up to them when they make friends again. think back to when donald trump was president. olivarez business leaders, that whole poppy say, it that made fun of him for decades, he loved when they were hanging out with him again. for all the time being, he's threatening them, but i assure you win a supermarket rich person who owns a sports team wants to front him again, he'll get back in. >> it is a crazy dynamic. if haley, as i think you guys are saying, it's highly stars and as long as she has money and if her money flow continues to be totally independent of her prospects of winning, that is a recipe for her staying and and her being an irritant to trump, hampton unable to say he's got it setup. him being unable to ignore her. that's a recipe for this continuing indefinitely. which is absolutely the understudy role. and it's unprecedented. makes it more of a ross perot

kind of candidacy then a pop a cannon candidacy, or something else. >> the only thing i would caution, i'm sure there are people with deep pockets here want her to stay in forever. you can be an understudy as long as the audience doesn't view when you get onstage. chris christie said, the longer she's in that race, that more she turns of the republican base -- shaken pair of the moderates and independents in a general, but the party itself has to vote for this person, if indeed the under for the essay aims to that leading role. i want to lose sight of this, because because over it. donald trump has poisons a vast, vast wing of the republican party. to the degree they will never vote for nikki haley. he began spewing lies and bigotry directed at migrants coming until the country, saying they were coming from and sent asylum. 's it sounds awful and comic

and everything else, reprehensible. a variety of things to us. but that reality is, we look at the exit polling. in south carolina, 2016, showed those illegal immigrants working in the u.s. be offered to apply for legal studies or be deported ? -- this year, 27% believe they should be allowed to apply for legal status. 70% think deported. >> who is but one her? she might lose begin south carolina. she ain't losing by her he neighbors -- they are rich new yorkers. >> i think the linkedin is probably pretty up-to-date for nikki haley. we are waiting for nikki haley to speak. again, some suspense over what officials say two everything we've been discussing here.

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love him, he's a good man. come up here, lindsay. >> it would not be a republican primary night without some rachel humiliation of trump supporters by donald trump life onstage. joining us now from nikki haley's headquarters and charleston, south carolina, nbc news correspondent ali vetali. what is the mood there? i kind of got the answer. what is it like? >> i'm glad you point out the ritual humiliation from donald trump. because of my what my first comment was more. the one he made about lindsey crime, or when he said he's glad tempest going didn't have that

same energy and drive to continue running for president. a night of backhanded compliments for the south carolina senators. here at nikki haley's headquarters, you could ask the mood, but it is not surprised. and that lead up to tonight's primary, i didn't have to hear from the campaign about us talking about polls that had some good interest and wallops. they haven't even argued with me about using those terms. they know they're going to lose. even their campaign manager is saying we know the odds but they also know the stakes. that's probably what we're gonna hear nikki haley come onstage and site at some point in the next few minutes. reminding people why she's still in this rice, which is to continue providing and ultimate of outside of these first three early states. and in part, they're arguing the state and because the ottawa electorate and the south carolina electorate look pretty similar. both of them are primed for a candidate like donald trump. they felt better about new

hampshire's coalition they were able to build. one that was made, democrats who won over the independent set or independents who truly foot independent and wants to play a republican primary. they are looking ahead to other states like michigan and virginia, that have electorate that look similar for that. but the delegate math early comes into play here and avery negative way for they had a campaign. it's something i've asked multiple senior advisors about. the idea that even if she were to close the margins tonight, tip it within, say, 15 points, which in in the other what would be a walloping but when you see posted show 20 or 30 points up for trump, 15 kind of makes them look like they're in the fight. even still, there are not going to be able to not delegates out of this state of south carolina. that's insult to injury when you consider the fact it's a loss in a state that elected her twice as governor. it's insult and when you look at the fact that a who's who of south carolina politicians are on stage behind the former president.

and frankly it strikes me that i was trump's headquarters and 2016 on than out of the south carolina primary, when he was able to fully vanquish the likes of jeb bush and marc rubio, who at that point head haley's backing. now we are watching the same thing play out here with a similar type of candidate, trying to be a more establishment version of a republican nominee. someone we would have seen in past elections, prior to the trump era. now, having that same coalescing around trump. now have and be the person who is her home state, i think it's really striking to me as someone who's watched this state places a pivotal point in locking things up floor donald trump. and to see the south carolina republican party chair, seemingly to say nikki haley should be dropping out or else chase embarrassing herself -- will of this really does lands to the fact that the henry team knows they running against basically everyone wanting this to be over. but they're at least sank they'll

stay in for another week and a half more. >> in the seas ali vetali, thank you. lawrence? >> joining us now is south carolina's own james clyburn. democratic congressman and co- chair of the biden harris campaign. congressman clyburn, thank you very much for joining us on this republican not. we know this is overtime for you to join us on a night like this. joe biden went to the south carolina primary for democrats three weeks ago. he got 96% of the vote. you can expect that to be forgotten in the coverage of whatever percent donald trump get to. not but it's not going to be close to. that donald trump won't come close to what joe biden did in south carolina. does joe biden's 19 6% in south carolina indicate that joe biden has much stronger support within his own party right now than donald trump does? >> thank you very much for having me. i really believe it does.

within the party, i think joe biden is much, much stronger than donald trump is within the democratic party. i do believe that what you see, a little bit stronger vote for haley, then a lot of people expected her to have. i'm not surprised about it at all. >> going back to four years ago, when you head the south carolina primary and joe biden head lost two and a row, iowa, new hampshire, lost very badly in hampshire and then one south carolina primary with your support, with he pushing him across the finish line. at that time, four years ago, maybe other than you and your wife, it was hard to find anyone in america who thought bottom could even get the nomination, never mind the presidency. >> i think the people or their. but as you know, when you see results coming in, three big

primaries, that joe biden lost badly, the first two, and distant second, the third, papal were down. i thought what we needed to do was give people a ramp up. that's what we tried to do with the endorsement. we went beyond what you would usually do in order to try to create a surge. we were successful in to win that. that's what was then. but now people have seen that record that shabbat and has established. this man is a good man. he demonstrates that in all of his -- and he's a great president. that's what we have as his record. it demonstrates that. i

just think that you are going to see a much calmer electorate then uso before. but i think you're going to see a much more -- >> going back to four years ago right now, the polling of donald trump versus joe biden was very similar to the polling we are seeing now. joe biden had the higher number of the two. back then, it was very close. it was basically a tie within the margin of error. the polar now is very similar to the way it was four years ago. what made the difference between this point in the calendar and november when joe bottomless able to pull away? >> i think people began to focus on the two people. they still the record that trump established in his four years.

i saw his monstrosity. they sold a lack of compassion that people like to see in the president. and they compare that. it was a classic example of what you have biden always says. don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the ultimate. if they what's going to happen again. i think people are going to say a good man in charge biden and a great president, as opposed to a bad guy and a very failed presidency. >> congressman jim clyburn, thank you very much for joining us tonight. we appreciate you giving us your time. >> thank you, very much, for having me. >> we have got much more to come on our special coverage of

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one of the raceway one north

carolina, it's because of michael what lay. who looks to me, we gave him our endorsement and he looks to me like he's going to pay onto the national republican party, as the boss. michael? where is michael? thank you very much. he is going to be working with laura. and wait maybe putting kellyanne and the group as well. do we lack kellyanne? we love kellyanne. you are going to do a fantastic job, both of you. what a job he's done in north carolina. >> trump announcing, i guess you could, say kellyanne conway is going to be rejoining his campaign. also michael what, we have the mention there is now poised to be one of a triumvirate of basically pro trump adjuncts who are going to take over the entire institutional rnc. rachel, that's been some back and forth about whether that's going to happen and how. it's

been in the works now. you can see trump focused on that for a bunch of reasons. not least of which is the fundraising apparatus that is the rnc. >> and the rnc's decision for that as an institution, as to whether or not to put some of the money raised for pink's personal legal liabilities. and laura's face. that's potentially and existential -- he wants people named trump involved and that leadership of the rnc and other people he's hand insulin there. nikki haley was asked about this, chris. just within the last couple of days. she was asked who should choose to lead the rnc. her response, this morning, she said it wouldn't be a family member of a candidate. which does seem like a stroke of standard and not to -- a standard consideration and not to hub. our especially for someone who hasn't technically locked up the nomination yet. for trump to be ousting ronna

romney mcdaniel, to be elevating the north carolina guy, the stop the steal guy, the guy who believes trump's lies or is willing to take up trump's case in trying to overthrow the election, trying to say it wasn't a real election result, now he's saying he's going to bring kelly and come back as well. it is not exactly his called until he's president, let alone the nominee. but this appears to have been some sort of announcement, or at least a big focus group in front of a live crowd in south carolina tonight, to that being the new leadership. >> one of the big questions on these, not we've had four out, and lawrence, this goes to the competition you are having with james climber. the way the primaries work if you cannot extrapolate primary electorate to general electorates. i remember, sometimes people during the 2016, bernie sanders won this group and west fortuna

-- that's not going to happen. there is a little bit of a caveat here with trump, i think. alex, your thoughts on this? basically that chunk of voters who are, like, i'm not voting for trump and all three of the states, how many of those were partisan republicans -- or is there are some signal about his she enrolled election viability we are seeing and the states? >> i am intrigued to that end by the exit poll and we have to that question, about his viability. this was surprising. if haley is nominated, how likely is she to beat biden? 53% likely, 47% said not likely. if trump is nominated, how likely is here to beat biden? 83% of south carolina primary voters think he is likely to be

trip i've? that is 28 points higher than nikki haley. >> that's not what the polling -- >> it is the opposite. >> quite reliably. >> it is very hard to get a job you've never had before. they always say, i've had, it that's the best evidence for. it i want to much about any vote in group. but the guy has been president before. >> that is a fact. and he also lost before. >> we covered that. i do think we sometimes per looking at this as if we are comparing two candidates or to republicans or to whatever's. it's like, he was president. they have the idea, he won it before -- he can win it again. >> he's also lost to joe biden before. >> let me play one voter. remember, most primary voters are partisan members of their

party. because they are showing up in a primary. so most of them come home. that's what happens. that's why he can't extrapolate out these shenandoah. you can't extrapolate too much about how they feel about the person they are not voting for. basically, we have been out in the field, talking to voters. here is a representative example of how they feel about the two candidates and what they want trump. >> controversial, but i did vote for donald trump. i like nikki haley, i just feel like he might be the one to help us right now. i think nikki would be a good president if she wins the primary and wins the election. often have any negatives. i just feel like maybe he could jump in and do a better job. >> she is one of the trump voters who would take nikki haley. the voters to think about our 37% who voted for nikki haley, who would they vote for in a

general election? lawrence, this is your sweet spot. how is joe biden? >> these numbers are disastrous for donald trump. disastrous. it is the region i mentioned the forgotten number of south carolina, which is joe biden getting 96%. that's what you're supposed to get. donald trump's not going to come close to. that donald trump's going to leave 30%, 25% -- >> fortas if in percent. >> not yet. we don't know. it's going to be a very substantial number. could be a third of the vote. he's going to leave that on the table, belonging to another candidate. all you need is 5% of the 30%. we are talking about a sliver. that is all you need to not vote for donald trump. all of this representative kind of voter and michigan, pennsylvania, and arizona, and georgia.

so these are disastrous voting results for donald trump in the general election. he's going to win south carolina. but that voter, in the haley vote package, is representative of new hampshire, these other states, and in all the other swing states. wisconsin. you need a tiny slice of. that one 10, 000th of that will make a difference. >> and they are also relatively easy to model -- >> absolutely. >> we are expecting remarks from nikki haley imminently with her case for staying in the race. much more ahead. stay with us. much more ahead. stay with us. ♪♪ lowering bad cholesterol can be hard, even with a statin. diets and exercise add to the struggle. the effort can feel overwhelming. but today, it's possible to go from struggle

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polls close one hour ago, just about a four seconds afterwards, our decision desk called the race for donald trump, it is another decisive victory for the ex president, only serious remaining rival is former south carolina governor, nikki haley, a lot has changed in american politics since haley was last on the ballot in the palmetto state a decade ago. tonight's results, a testament to that. once considered a dominant force , she now trails donald trump by a substantial margin in a typically rambling victory speech, the ex president looked ahead, more right now seems to be in t all but never double general election showdown between him and president, joe biden. haley, esfor her part, has alrey vowed to stay in the race at least e through super tuesday. we are now waiting, on what

could be any moment, her concession speech down in her headquarters in south carolina. let's get some more vote in, let's head over to steve kornacki in the big board. steve, you're keeping tabs on whether nikki haley can come out of me -- with delegates in one of the districts in south carolina. >> just how this works with delegates, there's 50 that are being given out in south carolina, 29 of these 50 are 50 based on a statewide vote he gets those 29 delegates so it's left after that is 21 delegates that are given out by congressional district and that's what you see right here, a little rough to see with all the red here, but these are congressional districts, they're seven in the state, each one has three delegates on its own. seven districts times three, that's the other 21 delegates. you in the district, you and all three delegates. so you see, in these districts so far, one, two, three of

them, we've already projected that donald trump will win those individual districts. which is three, six, nine more delegates for donald trump. at this point, we have projected that 38 of the 50 are going to go to donald trump. where there's a little bit of a suspense right now, i don't know if that's the right word, but if there's any chance for haley to win, a congressional district, it's this one right here. this is the first district here, e this is the low country this is charleston, we talked about charleston, it has the highest concentration of college degrees, voters with college degrees, of any county in the state. it is also an area of the state where you do have a lot of independents and democrats, especially democrats relative to the rest of the state, folks haley is trying to attract over to the republican side. you've got big, fast -- excuse me, fast growing suburb there. this is berkeley county, very fast growing, this is also part of the district. i think it's interesting, take a look right now in berkeley, donald trump's margin over nikki haley mpis about 7000 votes. what we've got out of

charleston right gnow is haley margin onover donald trump is about 6000 votes. you see, there's a fair amount to come in charleston. what else is in this district? the other biggie is beaufort county, where we have almost no votes. this is where hilton head is. this is an area with a big concentration of college degrees, a lot of wealth. probably more conservative than charleston county's. those are the biggies. there's a piece of carlton county, piece of drug chester county in here as well. it's interesting that between charleston in berkeley county, we're just about all the vote is in, hail eastbound even with trump. the problem for haley's while there's a lot of outcome in charleston, she certainly doing well with this, we think we're looking at right here is the early vote. the ballots e that were cast early, about a third of the total in charleston. what we are seeing in other counties around the state now where the same-day vote is being counted up and reported out, we're seeing trump run better with the same day than he did with the early vote. so i'm not sure that this haley margin over trump is going to continue, with the remaining charleston county vote. and again, you just look at the

past. buford county is more favorablel to trump, then charleston county. let's see what happens with the remaining vote in charleston but that is in terms of this election night in south carolina, the open question is this first district, if haley could find a way to win it, and pick up those three delegates, like we said, if she were to succeed in winning the first district, it doesn't change the overall picture, trajectory of the republican race. but if you can win a district like the first demographically, in terms of income, in terms oft college degree concentration, this sort of thing, there are some districts out there on super tuesday where the delegates are awarded like this, that haley could then potentially win. again, i want to emphasize here, we're talking about a very, very small number of delegates, in a very small number of districts in the grand scheme of things. but that's what we're looking at in south carolina right now. again, we can return to the statewide vote, just check in on that, about a quarter is in right now.

remember, 17 point trump margin, this is basically, with a few exceptions here, early voting. we are starting to get same-day vote in, starting to potentially see a pattern where trump is doing better with that. we'll see how those numbers start to r fill in. i think from this point forward, we're gonna start getting more of that same day vote. we'll see if those numbers move. >>da steve kornacki. i'm curious, joy reid, if you are advising nikki haley right now, or you are her calms person, what is the thrust of the remarks tonight? >> it would be hard for me to imagine being here comes person, but let's just try this nightmare with you and say that i was, what i would say to nikki haley is that sometimes in defeat, you can actually have your finest hour. you recall that barack obama, then senator, brook obama's br most famous speech, was given on the night he lost the new hampshire primary. yes, we can. that is the speech that most

people thought was his slogan, it was so famous, it became a puppet, because will.i.am turned it into a hit on youtube. so he had his finest hour. i'm not saying she somehow a barack obama, i'm not comparing her to him, for all my obama fans out there. i'm not saying that. i'm saying that this is the night that people are going to pay the most attention to nikki haley probably for the rest of this political cycle. she is losing her home state. this is when people are going to focus on her. steve kornacki has made it very clear, giving us all these numbers, she cannot access the maga base. she cannot access this white evangelical, hard-core anti immigrant cabase. donald trump keeps giving t her openings, when he did his thing about black people love him because he's indicted, trying to sell them on sneakers. he's giving her a lot of openings to go somewhere else. i think you're going to understand where she wants to go from here, whether it's politics, or something else based on what she does, with the spotlight that is the brightest it will ghbe on her, probably forever. right? so it will be interesting to see if she t takes this opportunity to speak to the

donor class, and say, think of me as a 2028 tax cutting george bush republican. which seems to me to be a far out fanciful kind of idea. she can try to speak to the donor class that way. or, she could speak to the people who actually have been voting for her in the last three contests we've seen. independent voters, and just zero in on them. no pandering on the civil war, and saying it wasn't about slavery, no more of the pandering she used to do on the confederate flag, which is how she became governor. let's see if she tries to lean into the never trump world. which is someplace she's not wanted to go, i think alice has made that point. she hasn't run like a never trumper would run. she hasn't run like somebody who doesn't -- she's won like somebody who doesn't understand she can't get the maga base. and who still wants them. you can't get them, nikki. it will be interesting to me to see if she decides to leapfrog over maga, and speak to the country, in a tway that sets h up has some sort of a future,

dot dot dot. i don't know what it is that she wants to do. i've actually been told she doesn't want to stay in politics if she doesn't do this. she doesn't have some planned to be senator or something like that. i think we will know what she really wants to be and to do, based on what she does, because this is the biggest that -- will probably get for the rest of the cycle. >> i can tell you, nikki haley's donors tell me she is not going to overtake donald trump. look at the stronghold he has on my got voters. she just has to be the backup quarterback, standing on the sidelines, hoping drew blood so gets injured, gets out of the game, and she can step in. >> they end up in the game a lot. if you watched this last -- >> nikki haley does not have any conceivable path to nomination, even if donald trump withdraws. the week before the election. >> this is the other issue, exactly. >> the reason is well over 90% of the delegates are going to be trump delegates at the convention.

if they must get another nominee, because donald trump is hospitalized, if they have to do that, it will not be her. >> it will be his son, i guarantee you. >> it will be someone who has never -- >> you don't think llhis daughter? >> one of them. >> those delegates will only go for someone who has not attacked donald trump. >> yes. >> it's not gonna happen, trump's the nominee. >> speaking of, let's go to trump headquarters in columbia south carolina, that's where w nbc news correspondent, is standing by for us. vaughn, i understand you've got some reporting, talking about this tonight, basically about the rnc. and it's institutional posture as an arm of the trump campaign or ostensibly a neutral arbiter in a competitive primary. you've got some reporting tonight about rnc resolution that would slow down trump's plan to handpick new leadership for the rnc. >> right, chris, there's a structural consequence of nikki haley staying in this race. let's be clear. joe biden in the dnc are already

able to work together, they are working in tandem fundraising operation here, and you saw that in the numbers. so far, here to start the year, right, now the rnc and donald trump are getting out raised by millions of dollars. ns so, by nikki haley sting in the race, it is keeping the rnc and the trump campaign from merging. and allowing trump to effectively take over inthe rnc resolution that was just put forward today, by an rnc number, his name's henry barber, from mississippi, longtime prominent rnc member. crafted a c resolution and intends to bring it to the full 168 member body of the rnc. that resolution states that the two entities, the trump campaign, and the rnc, cannot merge their operations until u either donald trump gets the required number of delegates to become the presumptive nominee, or nikki haley drops out of the race. so, for the kayleigh, who is saying that she intends to go nowhere, there are serious questions about whether donald trump can actually put laura

trump and michael wally into the positions of chair and co- chair, and move his co-campaign manager, chris lacivita, into a chief operating operator role at the rnc, as he would like, because in the meanwhile, there is this resolution, when these rnc members meet in houston texas on march 7th, they could very well vote for, and i could tell you guys from conversations with multiple rnc members, there is disagreement over whether donald trump should erhave the power to dictate who the rnc chair is. the one rnc member told me explicitly that if donald trump wants a alpick his chair, he should go win the presidential election in november. there's one man, his name is drew mckissick, another rmc number, who just this afternoon, he did not rule out china lunging michael whatley for the rnc chairmanship. it's not donald trump that makes that decision, it's that 168 member body who are looking at not just the white odhouse, t also the senate in the house candidates, as well, in those races, and i'm told that very serious conversations nine

months out about what this rnc and trump operation could look like. of course, it's now just a matter of time until donald trump gets the keys. but there's some interparty battle inside the rnc right now over the extent to which he will control those keys. gus? >> fun, great reporting. can we just play a moment from trump's victory tonight? drew mckissick, the individual who is just noted by vaughn hillyard, he's actually, i believe it's the same individual tonight, who is in the room, and after the crowd had booed lindsey graham, and trump threw him out there to get continue to booed, drew mckissick is also out there, he was also getting booed. this explains what was an otherwise weird moment there. just to get a sense of the backstory, and the fact that despite him saying tonight everyone is unified, and to lawrence's point about joe biden getting 95% in south carolina, here's where that individual got shouted out by trump, this is his reception in

that room. take a listen. >> we have a man who has done a really good job in this state, your south carolina gop chair, drew mckissick. thank you. >> i'll tell you, >> despite the fact that trump

appears to be the inevitable of -- for trump, who's an incumbent, you do have him trying to bigfoot the rnc, throwing out running macdonnell. tonight, essentially announcing who he's oninstalling. tonight, that will be a contested matter, as one just reported, that was fascinating, when they have the houston meeting of the rnc, it's not a gigantic meeting, it's not a meeting of the trump base, it's not a meeting of millions of people, it's a meeting of 160 million people. they very well might vote for a resolution that requires the rnc to stay neutral, that does not allow the rnc to stop funding trump's legal bills, all of these dynamics are all pointing in the same direction.

which is that the democratic party certainly has its challenges, in terms of having a nominee who doesn't have great approval ratings, people think old, there's some fractures in the coalition. sure. in the republican side, you have a former president who is the most controversial politician in american history, not named benedict arnold, who wasn't a politician. the republican fracturing around him the is real, despite the fact that he seems to be winning the primaries running away, and will likely continue to do so. those will have general election consequences, and they may very quickly have fundraising consequences. biden is already gotten nearly doubled cash on hand that trump does, the dnc already has nearly triple the cash on hand at the rnc has. if those divisions persist, that's going to be structural trouble for the republican party, heading into a hotly contested general election. >> l yeah, alex, to rachel's point, one thing that transcends ideology in the time of politics

is turf and money. honestly, that's what's at play here for the rnc in terms of looking at the legal debts he has, listening to laura trumpy like every penny's gonna go to trump. >> every penny is gonna go to my father in law of legal defense in a moment when other expenses are mounting to the tune of half a billion dollars. the timing is trying to install your people at the air and sea is not particularly, it's not a mystery why you might want to control those purse strings. the point has been made, i'll just elaborate on it, the fact that biden in the dnc have a glide path here, trump not only has the interparty fights of the rnc, but the huge question of my, more generally, the pressure that's going to put on his supporters to be asked over and over again, and then also we talk about this anecdotally more than we have factual evidence to support it, the idea that nikki haley's going to maybe remain in this race, not just to complicate matters with the rnc, but to be a reminder of

why people don't like trump. that he's a flawed candidate, that's not helpful to him as he seeks to ulsay the party is as united as ever has been. >> i think most of the republican party and most of its leadership and politicians have gone along with donald trump's opposition to honoring elections. that's a through line of our politics, there's some trials scheduled to also deal with that. yet,ls what we find? some of them are most vocal, dislike it more when he takes that same tacked towards intramural republican elections. el so rachel and others just referred to a voting process that's within the rnc. when we could get into it legally, of course it's a little different then a government election. le but again, the one of those outcomes? do you allow republicans to participate and then you honor what those voting members say? we're not? donald trump has shown time and time again, we can't say legally whether it's criminal or not, but we can say as a fact for people watching, that donald trump has proven himself

to be anti election, anti democracy, in ways that hurt the country, our democracy, yes , the democratic president who he's trying to run against again, but also, this might sway other people for different reasons, also against republicans. also against having a primary calendar that's been scheduled for sometime. it was only weeks ago they were trying to have the rnc shut down. and disenfranchised, i use that word literally. literally disenfranchised, tens of millions of republicans around the nation. now, i wish, personally, as a person and a journalist, that we all cared about these issues equally. that you don't have to find youd team affected to care more. but this is the real world. i'm not saying every republican cares about, it but we just got reporting for our own team that some voters of the rnc care about it. nikki haley's fans care about it, some other people in later states care about, it it's a not zero factor that donald trump's attack on honoring all of democracy is noalso potentially hurting him inside the republican party. you also make a really good point here, stephanie, which is

when you have fractured re coalitions, right, you see a lot of outrage, usually, to try to suture goes over. there's of course the unity new hampshire, i would think about unity new hampshire, hillary clinton, and barack obama appearing together. you saw this process play out between bernie sanders and joe biden in 2020. it's hard to imagine the version of that here, but there's going to have to be to something like that, or they face what lawrence flagged, which is some people not coming back inside the tent. >> what donald trump does is get to the podium and lie, and talk about how unify the party 's. right? think about who has donald trump o reached out to beyond h base? what has he offered anyone beyond his base in this campaign? there is not one policy proposal, not one event, he's got his hard-core trump lovers, and that's it. so, when you think about the people that enare now firmly in nikki haley's camp, do you ou really see them turning to s donald trump come november?

like democrats did for joe biden? you racould've had a people to judge democrat, amy klobuchar democrat, turn around and said, yeah, i'm gonna unvote for bide come november. or those voters really gonna do that orfor trump? not if he keeps going the road he's going down. and the one she's going down. >> and already's point about that, i had forgotten that, a little moment in the news cycle when they clearly pushed ronna mcdaniel to put out this, to start this revolution, parties over, guys, show is done. everybody go home. tip your waiters. trump had to come out to be like let's let it play out. >> briefly, that's part of why they're trying to bring a new leadership. >> we are still anticipating nikki haley to come out and give what is, at this, part one of , the most anticipated concession speeches we've had in this cycle so far, so let's sneak in a quick break, then we will get that on the other side. we are reliably informed. let's see. rmed. let's see. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks.

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quicker, nine months is a long time. i just wish we could do it quicker, mr. governor. is there anything you can do with your best powers? to make that, you know, in certain countries, you're allowed to call your election date, if i had the right to do it, i do it tomorrow. i'd say we're having an election. >> you would imagine he would want to have the election before facing any of the criminal trials he's now possibly going to face. let's head back over to steve kornacki, steve, not a lot of suspense on the winner of tonight's contest. some suspense on the possibility of some delegates being won by nikki haley. >> yeah, that really is it. it's a question of whether the final split is going to be a clean 50 nothing sweep for donald trump, or if nikki haley's going to win a congressional district. when a district, you get three delegates, they're seven congressional districts in south carolina. and take a look here, actually, you can see charleston county and beaufort county, this is where hilton head is here, kind

of low country here, south carolina, these two countries right now are in halle red. beaufort is all in the first district, not all, but a lot of charleston is in the first district. if we pull up our friend, the congressional district map here, again, you see we've not called several congressional districts. a big one we've not called is the first district. if you take a look in some of the component counties here, here's what we are seeing. take a look, this is the bedroom county, bedroom community county, berkeley county, it's very fast growing, donald trump has opened up, pretty significant advantage over nikki haley here. this is bigger than what we were seeing earlier, so trump needs to get a big margin out of berkeley county. because look at what haley is getting out of trump right now, half the vote, charleston county. the one thing we're getting some indications of looking at some of these counties around the state is that the election day, though, that's what's now being tallied, we've also basically seen the early vote in just all these counties. but two thirds of the vote is going to be election day vote,

that's what's coming in now, we're getting some indications that may be more friendly to trump than the early voting. if that's the case, then the remaining vote here in charleston county, this could be the early vote, plus some of the same day, but this trump number could rise as the same day is coming in. i think that's the critical question right here. because if it stays at this level, the rest of that vote continues to go to haley, almost a 2 to 1 margin, she's going to get a lot of voting. make up a lot of votes that way, then the question would really become beaufort county. what we're looking at here is the early voting before county. none of the same day, haley jumps out to a 17-point advantage here. how different is that election day vote going to look from the same day vote? donald trump suddenly get over 50% of the election day vote, beaufort county a wash. where does he not really do much better with the remaining vote them? in which case, if haley were to put beaufort and charleston together, could that offset berkeley? could that offset the little piece of carlton county, the

piece of dorchester county that is in this? that's the question right now. there's still a lot of vote to come, that's the suspense. to the extent there is. if haley wins that, that's three delegates for her. like i said, she could take that, and there's some districts, i don't want to overstate this at all, there's some districts looking into super tuesday, where they give out the vote like this, demographically, are similar to this, that she could then say i've got to make a run at those districts. that's 1000 delegates given out after tonight into super tuesday, very very few are going to be three congressional district delegates in a place like this. >> that first congressional district represented currently by nancy may, someone who nikki haley put her political weight behind to save from a primary challenge successfully for mace to turn around and endorsed donald trump. she, along with lindsey graham at the tramp headquarters tonight. let's bring in someone who knows delegate math better than almost any person on the planet, it's former obama campaign manager,

david plouffe, who is one of the masterminds of that delegate math. that was a lot closer delegate math, that delegate math required a lot more precise calculation of marginal cost- benefit than the delegate math we are seeing here, where it's just -- to steve's point, looks overwhelming. >> the delegate situation is immature. assuming haley stays, in trump's going to have a massively coming out of super tuesday. i do agree with lawrence, even if something were to happen to trump healthwise in july or august, that convention is not going to nominate nikki haley. she's not staying in, i think, because there's some outside chance. i think the important thing though, we're now heading to the geriatric cage match, the general election. the important thing is, we now of iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina. these are not general election voters that are republicans, these are primary voters. and 35, 40% are not choosing trump. so, the best campaigns and the best companies have the best

data. in the biden campaign has so much data right now, but the type of voters who you can then translate that to wisconsin, arizona, georgia, and nevada, who have a problem with trump, and that, to me, is a gift for the biden campaign, and a huge problem for donald trump. at the end of the day, he's going to have to get anywhere from 47 to 50% of the vote. when you have that many republican primary voters, does going to be more republican general election voters. so i think that's the most important thing coming out of this from a general election standpoint. trump is going to get out of his big win, he's essentially incumbent president. he's been performing quite poorly, if you from it in that way. >> how much, david, how easy or hard is it for a campaign like the biden campaign to basically, literally find the individual voters? people that are, again, because it's so polarized, and obviously not every haley voter in these circumstances is going to be an anti trump voter in a general election, in, fact i think the majority win -- but to

find that small sliver of the persuadable few. >> listen, all of us as americans have hundreds of data points. so the biden campaign will go to figure out who's been voting for haley, and find people just like them in the battleground states. >> nikki haley, now, approaching the podium, let's take a listen to what she has to say. >> thank you. thank you. thank you. [crowd chanting] thank, you thank, you thank you. thank you. y'all are a rowdy bunch. but i love that about you.

thank you. i want to start off, obviously, thanking my family. i am so incredibly blessed. i was able to speak with michael this morning, his support has been amazing. the kids have really stepped up. sometimes too much, but they have stepped up in a way that has made me so, so proud. i am blessed, because i have the ability to actually go vote today, with my mom. there's something very special, with the fact that she was a lawyer in india, she was named one of the first female judges. because of the times, she was never able to sit on the bench. but the fact that she could go with me, and cast her ballot for her daughter, as president of the united states, was an amazing moment.

i want to thank my parents, who taught me strength and grace, i want to thank michael's parents, who have been unbelievably supportive through all of this. i want to thank my brothers and my sister and their families for always supporting us, every step of the way. thank you. i feel blessed tonight, i felt blessed through this entire journey. even when it's been tough. i have not lost sight of that. i've felt god's strength and grace every step of the way. i'm blessed to have served at the state that raised me. and i look forward to continuing to be blessed to serve the state that raised me,

whether it's going and voting with my mom, or whether it is being with our family, we are very grateful for the good people of south carolina. thank you. and it's a blessing to know that across our sweet state, everyone wants to bring back the america we know and love. that is the underlying message of what happened today. i want to congratulate donald trump on his victory. and i want to thank the people of south carolina for using the power of your voice. no matter the results, i love the people of our state. i love what we accomplished together, and i love how we united during our worst

challenges and tragedies. i've always seen our state as a family, families are honest with each other. they say the hard truths. that's what i've done this entire campaign. and that's what i'll do now. what i saw today was south carolina's frustration with our country's direction. i've seen that same frustration nationwide. i share it. i feel it to my core. i couldn't be more worried about america. it seems like our country is falling apart, but here's the thing, america will come apart if we make the wrong choices. this has never been about me or my political future.

we need to beat joe biden in november. i don't believe donald trump can beat joe biden. nearly every day, trump drives people away. including with his comments just yesterday. today in south carolina, we are getting around 40% of the vote. that's about but we got in new hampshire to. i'm going to count it, i know 40% is not 50%. but i also know 40% is not some tiny group.

[crowd chanting] there are huge numbers of voters in our republican primaries who are saying they want and alternative. i said earlier this week, that no matter what happens in south carolina, i would continue to run for president. i'm a woman of my word.

[crowd chanting] i'm not giving up this fight when a majority of americans disapprove of both donald trump and joe biden. south carolina has spoken. we are the fourth state to do so. in the next ten days, another 21 states and territories will speak. they have the right to a real choice. not a soviet style election, with only one candidate. and i have a duty to give them that choice. we can't afford four more years

of biden's failures. or trump's lack of focus. we are at 34 trillion in debt, and counting, not even a third of our eighth graders are proficient in reading. some families can't afford groceries, 9 million illegals have come to our border with enough fentanyl to kill every single american. and beyond our borders, the ward is on fire. or is spreading further every day. if we aren't strong, those wars will draw america further in the. and it's not just about policies, we won't get out of our downward spiral, if we keep obsessing over the past. does anyone seriously think joe

biden or donald trump will unite our country to solve our problems? [crowd chanting] one of them calls his fellow americans fascists, the other calls his fellow americans vermin. they aren't fighting for our country's future. they are demanding we fight each other. the younger generation, my children's generation knows it better than anyone. they deserve better. they deserve leadership. and so i will keep fighting for them and for you, and for all of america.

from the start of this campaign, i have made clear that i'm running for president to save america. i'm running to remind us what it means to be an american. and the america i know and love, we believe in each other. and we believe in america's inherent goodness. now is the time to renew that belief, now, is the time to remember who we are. we are citizens of the greatest country in human history. [crowd chanting] and we must lead now, more than ever before.

i'm grateful to south carolina, i always have been, and i always will be. and i'm grateful that today is not the end of our story. we are headed to michigan tomorrow. and we are headed to the super tuesday states throughout all of next week. we will keep fighting for america, and we won't rest, until america winds. i want to give a few thank you, because we've had some people who have really -- there's been too many to thank, but i really have to single out congressman ralph norman. ralph has had pressure on him from every side, that he needed

to not support me, and that he needed to step away from me. and he always said there is no way in hell. i want to thank senator tom davis, representative nathan valentine, and representative mike niece. who were there we -- had other supporters, but they were constantly there. tom, you've been there from the very beginning, nathan, you will forever be my deskmate, mike, i won't know what to do if i don't see you at an event. but i am truly, truly grateful. solicitor scarlett wilson and dunfee stone, amazing rock stars for our state, that we should all be proud of. mayor brenda bethune, really stepped up, the mayor of myrtle beach, she was absolutely

fantastic. former congressman gretchen barrett. the story behind me and gresham is we duked it out in our first primary, when i ran for governor. to have him call me and say not only do i want to help you, i will do whatever you need me to do. gresham, thank you for the prayers, thank you for the texts, thank you for the encouragement, i'm grateful for that. and everybody needs a friend, like bubba kramer. [crowd chanting] >> nikki haley making good on

her word not to leave the race, announcing tonight she will continue to fight. stressing, she, says that she got about 40% of the vote, at least as of now, and that while she's good enough to know that's not 50, that 40% is not some tiny little group. rachel, your thoughts on that speech? >> that is exactly what i was focusing on, as well, wondering if governor haley was listening in on our discussion earlier about that lords i highlighted, we've been talking about our sense, this idea that yes, trump is winning, and trump's been winning throughout this primary process, but the haley candidacy, i think specifically because it does not show any risk of winning, its strength, nevertheless, is a problem for trump, who wants to wrap this up, who wishes she wasn't in the race, and wishes she'd proclaim -- while seating 40% of the vote to her. she said in south carolina we're getting 40% of the vote,

that's about what we got in new hampshire to, i know 40% is not 50%, but i know 40% is not some tiny group. she said there are huge numbers of voters in our republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative. when i said earlier this week, no matter what happens in south carolina, i would continue to run for president, i am a woman of my word. then the crowd goes wild. first of all, she's good at giving a speech. second of all, that's an incredibly fired-up room for a group of people whose candidate just lost that poll closing. but she is making a case that despite the top line results, is justified by the data that there is a problem with the prohibitive front runner in the republican party. she's making that case against him, both on substitute grounds in terms of what he's like, but he was like as a president, what he's like as a candidate now, when he's offering the country in this campaign, but also when a horse race analysis as well. saying, listen, if trump has this wrapped up, how come 40%

of y'all voted for me? here and in new hampshire. it's a reasonable case to be made. >> joy, what did you think? >> i wrote down a few lines, i think that's brilliant rachel just said. i like to. it this is a couple of her lines. everyone wants to bring back the america we used to know, we used to love, she said. that's that nostalgia commentary that you gave her. she said she loves her state, i love how we united during our worst challenges. she said, the people have a right to a real choice, not a soviet style election with just one candidate. this is where she calls out both biden and trump, she says one of them calls fellow americans fascist, the other calls them vermin, she says trump drives people away. then she goes into her rib out the 40%. nikki haley, i think, did very well. first of all, she is a talented politician. i think we only to acknowledge her talent as a politician. she's got it giving a speech. but what she's also particularly good at, and it's

one of the reasons she became governor of a state like south carolina, that is so white evangelical, that is so anti- that occult to the idea of the daughter of immigrants from india, you would think would not have a shot there, but what she's really good at is doing the kind of nostalgia that, frankly, barack obama used to do, and that voters -- candidates of color, have to do in order to succeed in american politics. they pushed to a nostalgia about this we are in america with possibilities, it's the reason she won't say america's a racist country. it's the reason most black politicians won't say it. if there is a part of the american electorate that wants to believe the best about america, they want to believe the rose colored glasses version of america, tonight, nikki haley spoke to those people, who she has very accurately said to make up maybe four out of ten republican and independent republican leading independent voters. she didn't try to speak to the maga crowd, she didn't try to pander to trump's voters, she

ignored them, essentially. she went straight for that nostalgia portion of the republican party that still remains. i thought that was very smart. and that is kind of what i would say that she might do, to leapfrog over maga, to ignore them, essentially, and to speak to that nostalgic voter that in the past voted for george w. bush, or whatever. she's a standard issue old style type republican, who has zero shot of being the nominee in this election, right? however, she is keeping alive the fact that that part of the party and that part of the independent portion of our electorate does exist. now, her policies are far right. if you've dug deeper into what she believes, she's a far-right wing tea partier. but she presents as that old- fashioned type of nostalgic candidate, and a candidate of color in the republican party, where i think there's value to that. her staying in the race, i'm quite sure that the democrats are very happy to have her. she's not going to be the nominee, but she's a reminder

every day, and every time she opens her mouth, that there still are republican voters who want something other than mega, who believe in something about america that isn't maga, and who actually are open to someone like her, who looks like, or who sounds like her, who is a woman, who is the daughter of immigrants. it's a reminder that if you are a nostalgia voter, you are not alone. and about 40% of republicans and republican-leaning independents agree with you, i'm sure the biden campaign couldn't be happier to have her in the brace and to stay in. >> ari. >> i heard three key points, one, this equivalence that she's done several times, she attacked trump as divisive than argues that biden is equally divisive. of course, if the term fascist refers to the sitting president trying to defend democracy, i don't know if that's equivalent to vermin. but that's the pitch she's making republicans, that's point, 1.2, as it's been discussed, i think that line jumped out to rachel, joy, myself, maybe everyone, 40% a nothing. she continues to hit decent losing margins. repeatedly in

new hampshire, and here, and maybe she thinks she can do that in other states super tuesday. that's not nothing. she saying, hey, i'm strong, against this supposed leader president who's semi incumbent who's week. that's pointer three, she's basically shading his numbers, and she's pointing out that there is a weakness to the way that he wants to short-circuit the race, the soviet style comparison, lack of democracy. why do you do it? because you can't win an outright election, which he couldn't last time. those overlap. i'm reminded, as we take this all in, she's kind of pulling a jay-z, who said we don't believe you, you need more people. >> true. >> i don't know that i have as charitable an assessment of the speech, i think on one hand -- >> speaker truth. >> look, i do think she's a good politician. but i found it a bit mushy, in so far as by virtue of staying in this race, she's performing an act of antagonism against donald trump, on a number of

levels. right? >> correct. yes. >> yet, her only fortunes or to be had among people who don't like donald trump, who have a problem with him, in a meaningful way. the only thing she can say, really, critical of donald trump, is we can't afford four more years of biden's failures or trump's lack of focus. let me tell you something, the 40% of people who are -- >> think out he's not more focused. >> the 40% of people are not voting because trump has not focused, he is focused like a laser on brown people, on women, on migrants, that's not the problem here. a little less focus might be good. i just think, joy, i thought so articulately, and eloquently raised this is your moment in the sun, nikki haley, what are gonna do with it? are you going to speak to the heart of the matter, which is a sizeable percent of the republican electorate thinks this guy is a problem for them? and i didn't hear tonight. >> but she also isn't looking to speak to his voters. joy noted it, she started her

speech talking about her indian mother, her lawyer mother in india. she is not speaking to mega maga . i thought that was extraordinary. what i felt like i was listening to was a no labels pitch. >> yes, that's what it sounds like. >> which, in theory, speaks to a lot of people. but in practice, the math doesn't. >> so, let's talk about 40%, for a second. what is 40%? >> one of my favorite numbers. >> it was enough for lyndon johnson to not run for election. jean mccarthy went to new hampshire, got 42%, in 1968, in new hampshire, against the sitting president. no one thought he was going to get above 20. when lyndon johnson saw those results, that was it. it was all over. that's how big and important within your own party, when you have presidential standing on the ballot, in the primary, as trump does, essentially incumbency, and south carolina,

south carolina, this is a hard- core republican state. this is not new hampshire, this is a hard place to get 40% against donald trump. it's a very troubling night for donald trump. and rachel's point about the enthusiasm we were hearing in the crowd, i was wondering about that. because the losing hotel ballroom is never quite that energetic, and remember what that energy is about. we are so thrilled that you are going to keep running against donald trump, her campaign at this point isn't really about policy positions, no one can tell you what's the difference between haley and trump on tariffs. they have no idea. what's the difference between them on israel and gaza? none of those voters have the slightest idea. the only thing that haley voter knows in a republican party's she's running against donald trump. and a small price, the small

price that democrats have to pay is that when ever she says a negative thing about trump in a prepared speech, she's going to try to put joe biden somewhere on the other side of that coin, and it's never going to be as bad. it's never as bad. when she's out there on the campaign trail and she's asked specific questions by reporters about insane and hateful things that donald trump says, she attacks those things very directly, and doesn't drag joe biden into it. she's going to michigan tomorrow. when you're running a democratic biden harris ticket, who do you want to send michigan tomorrow? haley. can be sent haley? yeah, she's going. that's the most effective person you can send into michigan to pull voters away from the republican side of the ballot and the runner. >> steve kornacki, i'm only going to you because i just want to, again, my fastidiousness, just calling me here, because

she said 40%, which we are all quoting that number. and again, rounding, that's where we're at. i just want to make sure that we haven't gone down to 29, and she's run a donald trump on us, and we're out of the actual number. quickly, where are we right now? we're at 38.7. >> yeah, that's what you're seeing. 22 point lead for donald trump. little bit less than two thirds is in statewide. just look here and say what the biggest outstanding, where we have the biggest outstanding vote. okay, so three counties to point to right now. the biggest single source of outstanding vote is in greenville county. this is in the upstate. this is probably the biggest -- you know, you think of the upstate, maybe as not as big, but actually, population wise, it is. this is a place we've got a lot of outstanding votes still to come. but really could do fairly well with. but the second biggest places this, horry county, which is producing a massive votes

tonight. this is the heart of trump country. this is myrtle beach, conway, you see trump's margin, and he's doing better with the same- day vote. he's had that there. the third one to point to, the third biggest source, is the one who's gonna answer that question about the first congressional district and whether there's any chance haley -- there it is. >> all right, much more to come tonight, as nikki haley vows to find all these results in south carolina republican primary. we'll be right back. carolina republican primary. we'll be right back.

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♪ ♪ ♪ you are watching our continuing special coverage of the south carolina republican

primary. i am chris, hayes along with rachel, joe, mark, stephanie, and alex, and ari. it is now nine pm on the east coast, if you are just joining us. donald trump has won yet another decisive victory in an early nominating contest. although, still there is a question as to whether he will sweep all 50 of the states available delegates. for her part, nikki haley made good on her word to not drop out during her concession speech. we now expect her to compete participating in contests, at least through super tuesday next month. haley's night reiterating her promised to hold the line, as the only significant republican opposition to trump. and she noted that while she has not yet gotten a majority of votes in the state, the minority of republican primary voters who prefer to trump is not an insignificant voting bloc. >> today in south carolina, we are getting around 40% of the vote. [applause]

that's about, that's about what we got in new hampshire to. [applause] i'm going to count at. i know 40% is not 50%. [laughter] but i also know, 40% is not some tiny group. [applause] [crowd chanting] [crowd chanting] there are huge numbers of voters in our republican primaries, who are saying they want an alternative. [applause] i said earlier this week that no matter what happens in south carolina, i would continue to run for president.

[applause] i'm a woman of my word. [applause] >> haley, uproarious, reception, rachel in that room. and -- not the kind of -- sort of vibe that you usually get, in the room on the night that the candidate has lost by double digits. >> yeah, i mean to hear the crowd go crazy when she said, we've got a 40% of the vote tonight. crowd goes nuts. and, and i told you i wasn't going to drop. out yet, we are bolstering you. and i'm a woman on my word, i am not dropping out, the crowd goes crazy. i mean, nikki haley is not winning, nikki haley is not even closely chasing donald trump for the nomination of the republican party. but, she has a reason to be running, she has enthusiasm for people who, from people who support her, who know exactly why she is running.

she has donors up the wasn't. she has a very well funded campaign, she just spent a ton of money in south carolina. but she's got donations coming in, in a way that is absolutely -- for a presidential campaign right now. and most importantly, she has irrational for saying in, that has nothing to do with the winning the future contests. so, it's not like oh, you didn't win the michigan caucus on march 2nd, now are you going to drop out? i just don't think that feels like a rational way of approaching the question of nikki haley right now. nikki haley is running, as we have been describing tonight, to show the weakness of donald trump, as a republican nominee for president. to give the republican party pause about really putting him back up at the top of the ticket. and maybe they are going to want her instead, but if he is trying to run effectively as an incumbent presidential candidate, you can't lose 20% to somebody else in iowa, and 40% in new hampshire, and 40% in south carolina, and, and, and. you just can't, it's not a good

look. >> that, that point there about her, there is not this kind of drumbeat that would usually be happening at this point. when are you going to drop, out when are you going to drop out? what's next? she is very deftly defusing that. because again, she set the par for, at your point, it's sort of internal rationale for what the campaign. and i want to go now to haley headquarters where we have nbc news correspondent ali vitali, who was there in that room, and is currently with a haley supporter. ali? >> yeah, i think you guys are exactly right. to talk about this almost as a crusade of principle right now, for nikki haley, as opposed to one of political victory. it's clear that she's got a long shot here. but if you looked around this room, i think you are right to point out that there is no sense of misery in a loss. this is what they expected to happen, and it's exactly why i have supporters like brittani, who are next to me, saying that she should continue fighting. i mean, you know capitol hill,

that's where we first met. and i'm sure you know republicans who are basically foot tapping her out of the door, saying hey, let's end this. i know those republicans to. why is it a good thing that she is saying it right now -- >> well you know, i think that 70% of americans don't want a trump biden matchup. i think that we saw 40% of republicans are tired of the way that trump brings the chaos, and the way that he is leaving our country. so we need something new, something fresh, and nikki haley brings that leadership. >> i wonder, as i think about nikki haley staying in. you are also a part of a group of women, as i was standing in this room, who were very loud, lending to exactly the mood that chris and rachel in the rest of our panel are talking about. there are women fueling this campaign on the ground. >> i am so proud to be part of that group, voting for nikki. you are absolutely right, we are loud and proud. i went to iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina. the reason that he coming back is because of nikki haley. i voted for nikki, and it's a testimony for who she is as a leader, that these incredible accomplished women want to support. or >> it's the idea to that you

are willing to brave negative 40-degree temperatures. because i sure as heck would not have been door knocking that kind of. weather >> but the reality is here to, it does not seem that she can win here. so, how do you keep saying it's okay for the party to have a candidate staying in, and kind of digging the guy who is likely to be the nominee? >> well you know, i don't think 40% is anything to talk about, that is a lot of people. not to mention, a lot of republicans have become independents, that's because it's donald trump. how do we welcome back those folks in the party? he is not going to be able to do that. he is doing terribly with women, he is doing terrible with independents to. she attracts those kind of people to the party, and we're not we -- want to be a big umbrella republican party, if you want to win in november, that he has got to stay. and >> yeah, and that's the argument i have heard mates only times, the idea that her electability in a general is better. i think my last question for you is, as somebody who knows politics, and knows what we talk about with down ballot races, and the impact that a presidential candidate could have on senate races, house races. you know it's a house majority that supertight, probably better than almost anybody,

having worked for the former speaker. what does it mean if you have trump at the top of that ticket? >> well i think you see at the rnc, they are absolutely bankrupt. laura trump has said that any penny is going to go towards donald trump. what does that mean for our data -- that means that they are not going to be able to have the support of the rnc, where the traditionally have the -- so i think it's important that we get away from this chaos, move towards something that is more regular, and normal. and that is going to lead our country in a better path. >> brittani, thank you so much for sticking around and chatting with us. and guys, before i toss about to you, i think the one thing that i would say is, what i have learned over the course last few months is believed nikki haley when she says she is staying in. i, mean she lay this out at the beginning of the week, she is now following through, saying she is in for michigan, -- and of course through super tuesday. so, i am certainly not canceling any of my many, many flights across the country, at least not yet, because it is clear in talking to her senior staff, and of course talk to the candidate, that she is in this until at least super tuesday. and maybe at that, point it will be a natural reassessment. but she really wants to stay in and provide alternative, -- >> all right, nbc's ali vitali

at haley headquarters. for now, she will be on a flight soon, i imagine. wrapping up those concurrent -- joining us now is former missouri senator claire mccaskill, now coast of the msnbc podcast, how to win 2024. and a former rnc chairman michael steele, now the coast of the week and regear on msnbc. so, i want to get a sort of top line take away from each of you, before we wrap tonight. clare, your thoughts? >> well, it has been a long time since i had heard a national republican on a stage trying to be inspirational. aspirational, uplifting, and unifying. >> and you notice there were no -- in that room. and, she has figured out something pretty basic, and that is that those voters who are low information voters, who are going to make up their mind at the very end, they are going to be drawn to a candidate who is not like donald trump, trashing america, trashing

americas institutions, figuring out how to divide us, figuring out how to play just to grievance. and i think every day's she stays in the, race i have to agree, i think it helps joe biden, because it reminds all of his voters that are not base voters, that there is an alternative to that negativity. >> michael, what do you think? >> yeah, i think that a lot of what we heard tonight is true about the state of what the campaign is for nikki. but i am sorry, as a former chairman, i am looking at the practical reality of running a race for the presidency of the united states, and if i'm a national chairman, regardless of if you are a trump person or not, you've got the start thinking about how this bleeds into april and may, as you are getting ready for your convention. so there are a lot of practical applications, of what the party needs to do. irrespective of where the candidates are. which is why you hear some folks inside the rnc, who are

not necessarily trump supporters, saying okay nikki, yeah, we really appreciate it, but there are other considerations here. taking that aside, and putting it someplace else for the moment, i think what nikki has done is she's changed a little bit of that conversation around what is possible. but still, you are left with the practical reality that after super tuesday, then what? you are 17 to 101. this 40% that everybody is talking about, let's keep in mind, it's because independents and democrats are allowed to vote in these primaries. up until march 15th, most republican primaries are some form of open. and that makes a big difference, in the turnout, and who is voting, not necessarily the case afterwards. >> yeah, that is sort of putting a lantern on that super tuesday, it's key. because she has -- clear mccaskill, michael steele, as always thank you both, really

appreciate it. our, your thoughts? >> i mean i hear michael, i guess i think it's both, right. i think if the prism is counting the delegates, and your a campaign professional, then sooner or later it's hard to see the math. but if you're taking that broader view, and both can coexist, lawrence has reminded us a multiple nights that history is instructive. wanting to have the benefits of the white house, and say you are the one who has won before, and you are basically the president, and the party should get in line, and everybody should react to that. but you are not holding up anything close to incumbents numbers. >> donald trump always tells us about his greatest fears, by announcing them. and the thing that sticks out to, me about the afternoon of all this, is trump getting up -- the party is unified like never before. and, that is the thing that he is most scared about in this instance. the party is not unified. >> and also whether the money continues. which again as we said, that really is the big question. because you can't really do it, unless it does continue.

>> my take away for the night is that joe biden won the night. donald trump decisively won south carolina, that is who joe biden wants to run against. and nikki haley pulled between 30 and 40% of the voters, who are not voting for nikki haley policies, they were voting against donald trump. >> you know, i agree with that, that it's a big money night for the biden harris ticket going forward. there is only one exit poll question that matters in the rest of these republican contests, and that is to haley voters, how many of you will not vote for donald trump? that is the only exit poll question we need, exit posters, make sure you get that. one final observation, which i saved for last, because it is the least likely. a lot of speculation about why is nikki haley staying in here. this is the least likely, it happens once in a great while. she could be doing it because it's the right thing to do. [laughter] that is one of the possible reasons. i've seen it, it is rare. that could be what you are

seeing here. >> audible reaction from the panel. i mean, i had that thought. joy? >> if i am the joe biden campaign tonight, i am going to be doing a deep dive into the 40% of not just south carolina voters, who won about four in ten of all three of these contests going forward, going back to iowa. who have rejected donald trump, who is running effectively as an incumbent president, but who could not manage to clear more than about six in ten republican voters, particularly in the most evangelical, 92% white electorate in the first three contests. and that means south carolina. i'm going to do a deep dive on them, because as lawrence has said earlier, joe biden doesn't need all of them. he needs three to 5% of them, to say that donald trump is so unacceptable, not only do they prefer nikki haley in the primary, they would rather have joe biden than donald trump in

the general. that's it, i'm looking at her voters, i'm studying them. if i'm the biden campaign, he definitely won the night tonight. >> rachel? >> the number than i am thinking about tonight's 400 and $54 million. because trump only has 30 days to put that up, the bond for that. before letitia james starts taking trump tower, or taking -- wall street, or taking his other buildings. and, we are talking about how trump wants everything to be unified. he wants to look at the rnc, he wants to get those joint fund raising operations under his own control. a lot of that is driven by what is now a very, very, urgent need for a ton of money from him. and that opens up, among other things, a big new line for nikki haley, to condemn him for his corruption, in terms of why he is running in the way he is running the way he is. and that's soon, that's, now that's the next 30 days. >> a two-person race for republican nomination continues, as you saw. and so does msnbc's special coverage, right after this

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♪ ♪ ♪ good evening, and welcome to msnbc's continuing coverage of the south carolina primary. i'm alicia menendez, here with

simone sanders-townsend and michael steele. and, the results are in. donald trump, the disgraced, twice impeached, four times indicted x-ed president, has not yet another -- defeat in the state's former governor, and so remaining opponent, nikki haley. who just moments ago, promised to stay in the race, despite losing by about 20 points tonight. and >> today in south carolina, we are getting around 40% of the vote. [applause] that's about, that's about what we got in new hampshire to. [applause] i'm gonna count it. i know 40% is not 50%. but i also know, 40% is not some tiny group. >> donald trump is now one step closer to securing the gop

nomination, and solidifying his ironclad grip on the republican party. and while what took place today may appear on the surface to be our most sacred democratic -- process that work, we should remind you nothing about this is normal. if the man who won south carolina tonight is the same in staring down 91 felony accounts, the same man who just declared fraud by a new york judge. in the same man who will make history next month becoming the first former president to face criminal charges in a court of law. nikki haley, the one person who arguably stands between trump and the gop nomination, promising that if elected, she would pardon him. while the headline tonight is donald trump wins south carolina, let's be very clear, as long as trump is in contention for the white house, and control the republican party, the only people who are really losing are the american people. let's go right to nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. where else? at the big board. steve, walk us through tonight's numbers. >> yeah i mean look, you can see here we got more than two

thirds of the vote in here. trump leading by just over two points here -- 20 -- it's kind of settled in at this level. so i expect the final to be somewhere, not more than a few points off this in either direction. so that's basically what you are looking at here. obviously, you can see here, geographically a trump sweep from the upstate, expect -- it gets interrupted down here in charleston, in buford county, which is where hilton head is. you see that's the haley red right there. the other place we see halle right is in richland county, this is where the state capital of columbia's. so the -- especially charleston and then richland, for trump in 2016. these are the only two counties that he lost in the 2016 primary. so, no surprise, i think that it is a source of haley's strength tonight. but it does lead to the one, i guess outstanding question here, as we look at this. and that, is it is obviously a trump win, trump is going to win the overwhelming share of all of the delegates. he may win all 50 of the delegates. the question is, is going to be 50, or is it going to be 47,

for donald trump? 47 to 3, or 50 to nothing. and the suspense, it all has to do with this area right here, because congressional districts have delegates that they award as a block. each district, there are seven in south carolina. each district gives three out to ever wins that congressional district. the rest are just given to the statewide winner. and it's in this district down here, where i just circled, where it's basically the first congressional district of south carolina. this is represented in the house right now by nancy mace. this is probably year, among the republican held district in south carolina. it's the least conservative, it's the most moderate in terms of its electorate. it has demographically the types of voters that we have seen nikki haley appealing to, in polling and in previous states. suburban-ites, college educated upper income, potentially an area rich with democratic and independent voters, who she has been trying to get to turn over and vote in the republican primary. this is the kind of area that is particularly rich with that

type of voter. at least potentially. and so right now, actually there's a close-up of the screen. yeah, you can see this is the first district in here. and you see the component counties. this is a very close race in the first district now. it is razor thin, it is about 500 votes separating donald trump and nikki haley. and the biggest outstanding piece of real estate, i think this map is going to do something funny when i press this. but i want to show you buford county, i see the map filled in. buford county is the biggest outstanding source of votes right now in the first district. we got a lot of it in. and as i said it is razor-thin right now. so very well what could decide this first district is beaufort county. this is where hilton head. is and you see nikki haley's new 12 points here. and two things, we are not quite sure where the final vote total is going to be. we are estimating right now that is 41%. but these are estimates, based on what we expect the vote total to be, coming into this. as we've seen results come in from elsewhere, this number can change, in terms of the estimated votes. but it may come down, in terms

of the number of votes that are left here. we have seen donald trump, as what they are counting up right now, is the votes who were cast today. the election day vote. we've seen trump in beaufort and elsewhere in the state, doing better with the election day vote, then he did with the advanced vote, the early vote. so the question really is, his number is improving, slightly, but it's taking up with each update we are getting in beaufort county. how much voters left there? because if there's a substantial amount and trump is doing well with, it he can win the first district but if there isn't a -- in this kind of margin holds for nikki haley, she may end up picking off the first congressional district. if she does, she would walk away with three delegates. but again, this is not the biggest shift in the world. it will go from 50 to nothing for trump, if he were to in the first. and if we go to 47 to 3 for trump, if haley were to win the first. but the other significance of that is when you look at, because haley obviously reiterated tonight she is in this through super tuesday. there are a lot of states that

don't do it, but some states do, this like south carolina on super tuesday, where they awarded by congressional district. and within those states, there are some districts that demographically resemble the first congressional district. so, if she could end up winning the first congressional district, and she is going ahead with her candidacy, there are some other districts she could potentially pick off, and pick some delegates up from. and even some of the states still to come, vermont is still to come. it's not a state, but the district of columbia is still to come. minnesota is a super tuesday state, these are places that are open primaries, much like south carolina. and you have demographically some of the characteristics you are seeing in the first district. so if she were to win the first i think, for her campaign, in terms of a source of hope. it would behave, maybe that means you could take a vermont. maybe it means could take a d.c.. maybe that means you could pick off a bunch of congressional -- just a handful of congressional districts, and get delegates that way. in the grander scheme of things

though, donald trump is getting the overwhelming share of the delegates out of south carolina. tonight, no question about it. and that is going to be true, it would appear, based on this pattern, if the pattern we have seen in south carolina and new hampshire and iowa continues, where the core republican vote just so strongly behind trump, and is really only the independents and the democrats, or nikki haley is making the deep inroads. when you look at super tuesday, there are a lot of states that are closed primaries. california chief among them, only republicans can vote. it's winner-take-all. if you get a simple majority in the state, you get all 169 delegates. so, there are a lot of places, most of the places on that super tuesday map, give out delegates either winner-take- all, or close to winner-take- all. and obviously, just given donald trump's strength with core republican voters, he can rack up huge, huge, huge numbers of delegates on super tuesday. with this story in the first congressional district suggests that haley could pick off a small piece of the delicate by

on super tuesday. but nothing, unless something -- we're just to dramatically and completely changed, nothing that would shift the trajectory of the overall race. >> steve kornacki, the man, the myth, the legend. thank you so much for being with us. now let's go to our reporters on the ground and south carolina. nbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard is at trump headquarters in columbia. ali vitali is at haley headquarters in charleston. fawn, let's start with you. the former president, he has already made his victory speech, what did he have to say? >> right, rhetorically speaking here, donald trump has moved on. while he acknowledged that there are still contests to be had, he did not mention nikki haley, or the fact that he even had an opponent at this point. on stage here tonight, which of course is a far cry from the donald trump that we are used to. and i can tell you, i talked to lindsey graham, the senator from south carolina, just before donald trump's remarks. and he told me that it is time for the republican party to unify, and look towards -- >> reporter: in fact marjorie taylor greene here this afternoon, at a polling location.

she told me that donald trump should ignore nikki haley completely, and view her as not all and void, and not a figure in this race. and, if you're looking at it from the trump team's perspective, they believe that they are going to be able to hit the delegate threshold come march 19th. and there is a reality, a difficult reality for nikki haley. who and that is the fact that it is not just south carolina voters that were voting in the primary today, but the 24 different states that are holding primaries between now and march 19th, that day that the trump team believes he will get the delegate threshold, the mail ballots in early voting has already begun. in 24 states. and so, this is a moment in which nikki haley has to change the trajectory of this race. and frankly, the donald trump team and allies, they say they have no fears or concerns about where this race is headed. and they feel good knowing that come this upcoming tuesday, march 5th, that you're gonna have more than a dozen states voting. and they feel like they are going to be able to walk away on march 5th, in a strong position if nikki haley were to

continue to try to keep this race going for however long that she deems necessary for a cause. >> ali, what are you hearing at the healy headquarters? what is the mood there like right now? >> look, if you didn't know anything about this race, and you only listened to what happened in this room tonight, you would have heard a very exciting group of people cheering about getting 40%. i know that doesn't make sense, in terms of political victory, or political strategy. but given the fact that the haley team always knew they were going to lose here, they are happy to tout the fact that they lost with 40% of the vote. which, as haley said, as advisers have said to me, that's not what you should be getting. you if you are the quasi- incumbent candidate in this race. they take the point that they know the odds, but they also take the point that they know the stakes. they have concerns about the role that trump would play for down ballot races, for his electability potential against president joe biden. for all of those reasons, and nikki haley enumerates them

often, including tonight, but for all of those reasons, they are staying in this race. and haley has made this clear consistently. when no matter what happened tonight, she was going to wake up on sunday morning and still be a presidential candidate, still be flying to michigan. as i told chris hayes, i'm not canceling any of my flights, because she is still promising to stay in this through super tuesday. and i've got to tell you, there are a lot of those flights. i am going to be earning my frequent flyer miles, because she's going to try to touch as many hands in the super tuesday states as she possibly can. i will say a note about south carolina. because one of the things that have also been tracking is the not so sexy point about delegates, in how you earned them. it's not sexy, but as all of you guys know, that's how you actually become the nominee. if i could borrow a -- >> reporter: and do not as good of a job as he does. but the math that he just had above south carolina, pointing to that area around beaufort and charleston county, that first district of south carolina specifically. it's really important that haley be able to win in a

district. a, for the psychological effect of it, just knowing that that entire map is not trump red. but the, south carolina's first district right there, were buford's, and where charleston is, blessedly we have been spending a lot of time there. and i say blessedly, both for the food scene and for the vibe. as ivan knows, he has been jealous that i have been down there. but also because this is the area where it makes sense for nikki haley to spend her time and campaign. this is an area where she was able to help the congressional candidate, nancy mace, when in a really tough race. of course, mace has now endorsed trump, something that is not lost on haley, or congresswoman mace, in my conversations with them. we also spent some time down in beaufort, a lot of time down in north augusta, it is the very southern tip point of the state. it makes sense that that is where haley was spending her time, because although their delegate strategy was going to be a tough slob, they are only going to net three of the strategy worked. it is a way for them to say that they did come out with delegates. i will make one more quick point though, which is that i covered a candidate who had a

delegate strategy of just picking them off where they could. and that was the elizabeth warren campaign. and we know that they didn't get the nomination. either >> all right, vaughn hillyard, and ali vitali, thank you both very very much. enjoy the food, because it's good, especially where you are. [laughter] ahead, the issues that fueled south carolina voters to the polls. and, what all of this means for democrats. our coverage continues, next. democrats. our coverage continues, next. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment

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this election is about who shares your values. chase. let me share mine. i'm the only candidate with a record of taking on maga republicans, and winning. when they overturned roe, i secured abortion rights in our state constitution. when trump attacked our lgbtq and asian neighbors, i strengthened our hate crime laws. i fought for all of us struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living. i'm evan low, and i approve this message for all of our shared values.

i'm not giving up this fight, when a majority of americans disapprove of both donald trump and joe biden. [applause] south carolina has spoken. we are the fourth state to do so. in the next ten days, another 21 states and territories will speak. they have the right to a real choice. [applause] >> welcome back to msnbc's coverage of the south carolina republican primary. joining us here in the studio now is political strategist maya rupert, who served as a senior adviser to -- campaigns. i believe she was juliaca stressed campaign manager. olivia troye is here, a -- and counterterrorism -- to former vice president mike pence. okay, so, i mean first, they called this very quickly.

we knew it was happening, given the numbers. just so we are all clear on the numbers, donald trump won about 73% of republicans, to nikki haley's 26% of republicans. when it comes to independents, donald trump won about 43% of independents, actually. nikki haley won about 54%. i didn't see a huge swath of black voters swinging to nikki haley, and the democrats. >> do you mean the sneaker -- >> or donald, trump the democrats are not coming out to the woodwork. my, what was happening? >> i mean, i am shocked, i am shocked that the sneakers didn't work. no, i mean look listen, i think that the idea that there was going to be some new swath of black voters, that we're going to donald trump, but in general defecting, i think that has been overblown. i think there is obviously a lot of very cynical people who have been trying to say that

the republicans some how have a strategy around black voters, that the democrats don't have, that democrats have been taken for granted. but i think look, we are looking at people who have records, right. the black community has seen what donald trump did, and they are voting accordingly. we have record low unemployment for black people in the country under joe biden. people see what is happening, or these policies actually mean. and the votes that we are seeing reflect that. >> olivia, i am just very curious your take on that one moment in nikki's speech, where she leveled up and emphasized the 40%. and my take was okay, as 40%, there's more to that number than meets the eye. because, a lot of what simone just laid out, or that 40% was comprised of was not just a

straight-up republican vote. what does that say about the rest of this primary? we know republican primaries close officially around the 15th of march. but right now, they can be open with democrats and independents can play. is that really what she is banking, on to sort of push her through to super tuesday at this point? >> yeah, i mean i think that's likely the strategy, to get democrats and independent voters to come out and vote for insanity, and the republican primary. and right now, that is nikki haley. and i think the reality is, today, south carolina told us in iowa, what new hampshire, what they have told us as well. that the republican primary voters want donald trump. right, and i think that she is pushing a boulder up the hill, trying to overcome that. and she is presenting an image that she wants the republican party to coalesce around, but that party isn't there. they are not backing someone

like a nikki haley, they are saying we want more donald trump. whether it's grift, whether it's racism, whether it's the crimes that he comes with. that doesn't seem to face any of these people. and so when i look at nikki haley, and she is touting the 40%. look, i'm happy to see that number. and to all the democrats out there and independents that came out, because they were voting against trump, thank you. we are going to need those votes when it comes to the november election. that's where i'm focused on, right there. i am -- we are going to need those votes to go to biden, if it is trump. and i don't think that, my biggest worry is, i don't want those votes to potentially go to a third party. >> well, later on to the many warnings nikki elie has issued about donald trump. she is trying to make an argument, my, about his electability, in a general election. that very clearly did not land with these voters.

eight in ten voters in this state -- say that donald trump -- if he is nominated, is likely he will defeat joe biden. compare and contrast to me the numbers you saw from joe biden in the south carolina primary, and what you saw tonight for donald trump. >> sure. i mean, the democratic primary, what we saw was an overwhelming victory for joe biden. he won over 95% of the vote. all right, so you didn't have a night of him giving awkward speeches about the unification on the democratic party. because he didn't have to. he showed the unification of the democratic party. these, the campaign that he has won, i think, he hasn't spent a lot of time saying people shouldn't be in a primary -- he is running his campaign, and we are seeing the. -- >> the fact that -- or any of the other folks. >> i'm curious to that point, if i could simone, if i could just piggyback on that. what happens to robert kennedy,

and others in the race that are still there. do they just somehow fade out? or, is there a point were it just comes to an end? >> i mean look, i think that these are two people, biden and trump, who could not be a more different situation when it comes to other -- because, what you see, the conversations that are happening with rfk junior and anybody else, it's, what's the upside? is there any path? what am i trying to do? when you have someone who has the popularity, and is having the success that joe biden is having, that's a very different calculus, then when you look at someone like nikki haley, and what she is saying basically is look, donald trump is basically running as an incumbent. and, he can't unify the vote. that means he is historically weak, he is deeply unserious. and, there's an argument to stay in a race like that, that

doesn't exist on the democratic side. >> i mean, i feel like nikki haley is doing what bernie sanders did in 2015, 2016. i worked on his campaign then. and what he did was he stayed in the race, he said i want the voters to have the ability to vote for the candidate that they choose. nikki haley said that tonight, she said you know, voters should have a choice, they shouldn't have the choice taken away from. them >> in fact she called -- it >> and i was like, come on now. >> come on now. >> she went old school. i >> was like okay, we were reaching, but okay. -- when [laughter] i just, bernie sanders got delegates. it was to the point where you had to, bernie sanders had a real seat at the table, because he won delegates. we're talking about nikki haley maybe getting three delegates, out of south carolina. and so at the end of the day, and she might end up endorsing donald trump when it's all said and done. and so, i heard you make the general election pitch to voters, olivia.

but what do you say to republican voters, who are still looking at nikki haley, the donors who are still looking at nikki haley. like, is this where the time is spent? best spent, maybe -- i was never a republican strategist. >> i mean look, i will say, while this is a situation in the primary, i think we need to fight, until the very end. and so at this point, i would say -- nikki haley, you are right, stay in, stay in, wear him down, make him continue to spend money. you know, keep pounding the message about what he stands for. talk about how he supports putin, talk about how he doesn't stand by ukraine. talk about what it is that you are getting with his brand. because actually at the end of the day, and actually does help the biden campaign. because you are actually delivering the message to people in your party, saying this is what this brand is. do you really want that to be the continuation of the republican party? we will continue to lose, the

way we have, cycle after cycle, with donald trump at the helm. is that what you want? now granted, you are correct. she is not going to garner support along the way. i would be surprised if she gets anything along the way. but you know what, i think that message is important coming from nikki haley. and i am glad, if she is willing to stay in, there and be a to deliver it, and then more power to her. but will she flip? >> well, olivia, hold that thought. hold that thought. [laughter] >> olivia dropped a bomb. >> we are not going anywhere folks, hold that thought. our coverage is going to continue, after a short break, stay with us folks. a short bre, stay with us folks.

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were nausea, indigestion and stomach pain. talk to your doctor about nurtec today. south carolina republican primary coverage, with maya -- rupert sorry, and olivia -- only had one drink tonight. [laughter] is here with. us thank you for being a part of the conversation. i wanted to go back to the flip on the script that you. did so, what do you have, what do you think is going to happen, say nikki gets to that party and she goes okay, i give it up? does she flip? >> do you think >> quite honestly in this republican party, if you want a future, i think she does flip. and i think it reminds me of chris christie, when he was dropping out, and people were

pressuring him. are you going to endorse, or are you going to back her? i never forgot these words, because like -- i get pressure for some of my former colleagues, on why are you not so vocally supporting nikki haley. and what he said was, should she turn around endorsed donald trump? what would you then think about me, if i it turned around and endorsed nikki haley? because here i am beating the drum, taking a stand again, taking the hits from them every single day. the one person that didn't waver, he kept doing it right. so, what does that say about me when i backer? and i think about that all the time, and it's really all about principle. right, you and i, we think about the republican party and what it stands for and how they betrayed themselves. and i think that's what bothers me right now about the republican brand overall, is that i watch her? do i want to support nikki haley, absolutely. i used to adore her, as a young

republican, she was a star in their publican party, a woman, later but. there's always that possibility and she has waffled. she start off this campaign pretty much backing donald trump. now, she has come out more forcefully against him. and i appreciate that, but again, i've watched all of these people come out, take a stand, stand forcefully, only to fall back in line. >> and she waffled on everything -- abortion, all of the things. >> she raised her hand, and that for me is the trigger on the endorsement. >> remember that, yes because then the press comes back and says oh, really you raise your hand and said you would endorse -- and so are you endorsing him? and so that's the problem with a moment like that. on the stage, when to your point, you aren't -- in where you want to. be we've >> got about a minute left, but i want to make sure we look at this exit poll around a national abortion ban. remember, these are gop primary voters in south carolina. 54% saying they favor, 41% saying they oppose.

anything about that surprise you? >> i mean look, i think that that's definitely out of step with what we see a voters saying nationwide. and i think this is one of those moments, that really, the republican party is going to need to make a decision about what it wants its identity to be. you have donald trump, who has been begging for credit, for appointing the justices that cost us roe v. wade, and those protections. and we are seeing right now in realtime, the impact of what happens when we lost that constitutional right. not just in the abortion bans we've seen across the country, but the conversation right now around -- and, donald trump is somehow trying to say he can take credit for losing roe v. wade, but he supports eye -- that outcome was completely predictable. and so, i think what voters need to show is that if this is not something that they

support, lay the responsibility for it squarely at the feet of the person who is asking for that responsibility. >> maya rupert, olivia troye, what a treat to have you both with us. thank you so much, we have more special coverage of the south carolina republican primary. we are gonna take a quick break. and we'll be right. back break. and we'll be right. back

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ask about nurtec odt. what do i see in peter dixon? nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. i see my husband... the father of our girls. i see a public servant. a man who served under secretary clinton in the state department... where he took on the epidemic of violence against women in the congo. i see a fighter, a tenacious problem-solver... who will go to congress and protect abortion rights and our democracy. because he sees a better future for all of us. i'm peter dixon and i this election is about who shares your values. approved this message. let me share mine. i'm the only candidate with a record of taking on maga republicans, and winning. when they overturned roe, i secured abortion rights in our state constitution.