6:00 p.m. eastern. i promise it will be a long, fun night. decision day. gop presidential hopefuls gear up for the first big showdown of the election season. in custody, los angeles police arrest a man suspected in a terrifying string of arsons. and double take. heavy snow sends an ohio bank thermometer soaring? very good morning to you. those stories and much more straight ahead. this is "first look" on msnbc. . we begin this morning with all eyes on iowa.

republican presidential candidates with making their final big pitches ahead of tonight's crucial caucus that's will kick off tonight' election season and who could have a huge effect on who wins the nomination. tracie potts is in des moines with more. good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning. at this point, it's not so much what these candidates say, it's what they do, making those personal connections at the last minute before the voting begins tonight. this late in the game for many voters, it's not just about issues. it's about trust. >> i trust him. i don't trust anybody else. >> he's going to carry iowa. >> reporter: it's possible, paul is polling two points behind mitt romney who boldly predicted victory monday. >> we're going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength. >> reporter: rick santorum thinks he can win, too, in iowa's biggest poll suggests he's moving in that direction. >> i didn't have the money to compete here.

but we were able to do it, why? because money doesn't buy iowa. >> reporter: newt gingrich claim romney's ads knocked him out of the top three. now he seems undecided about his own chances. >> i don't think i'm going to win. >> we may pull off one of the great upsets in the history of the iowa caucuses. >> reporter: last-minute campaigning, can it make a difference? analysts say conservative values are still huge in iowa. but the biggest factor this year is electability. who can beat barack obama? >> every candidate is going to be going out and shaking hands and meeting these caucusgoers individually. tend of the day, though, i think i do believe that romney will end up on top. >> reporter: we'll see if that happens. by the way, romney staff backed off his winning prediction saying he was referring to the nomination, not to tonight's caucuses. veronica? >> tracie potts in iowa, thank you. last night on "the ed show,"

ed asked howard dean if he saw the gop vote and the iowa caucus shaping up the same way he did. >> ed, i agree with you. i think santorum is going to win. i think paul is second and romney is third. i think that's a problem for romney. everybody knows that ron paul is not going to get the nominee. but santorum could be the nominee. because when they go to south carolina, santorum is a viable candidate which he will be if he wins tomorrow. those conservatives, the 75% of the people in the republican party who just are much too far right for mitt romney are going to have somebody they can vote for. he didn't have a dime. he's just done this on shoe leather. >> msnbc is the place for politics and the place to watch the gop candidates make their final pitches ahead of tonight's caucuses. all day coverage live in des moines begins moments from now at 5:30 eastern with "way too early" then "morning joe."

then keep it here for our special time coverage. later, chris hayes wraps it up with late night coverage and results. in los angeles, there was a major break in the case of dozens of arson fires over the holiday weekend. fires which caused millions in damages and left area residents on edge. nbc's stephanie stanton reports. >> reporter: for four days, los angeles area residents have been on edge after a string of arson fires have swept across the city. >> this is scary. you know, i live -- i mean where i live seems to be the epicenter. >> reporter: since early thursday morning, there have been 52 fires in and around los angeles. sunday night a dozen more fires were set. but early monday morning a break in the case. >> our long four-day nightmare is over. >> this morning, around 3:00 a.m., the sheriff's department detained a 24-year-old man named

harry burkeheart. he's been charged with one count of arson. >> reporter: police say he is a german national. for now, he's been charged with one count of arson and is being held without bail. it's also still unclear if he acted alone. >> there are some indicators that he may be a lone actor. but we do not know that yet. >> reporter: burkehart was arrested. he made the trap stop when he saw the man had a resembled this surveillance video. >> thank you to the two officers who backed me up. as soon as i put on my lights and initiated a traffic stop of the suspect vehicle, i had an lapd vehicle behind me ready to go. >> reporter: officials say more charges are expected against burkehart after fires had a terrorized a community and caused nearly $3 million in

damage. stephanie stanton, nbc news, los angeles. iraq war veterans suspected of killing a ranger at mount are a near national park has been found dead inside that park. 24-year-old ben gentleman man barns was discovered partially submerged in a snowy creek where he died from exposure to the cold. he was wanted in the shooting death of hmargaret anderson on sunday. he shot four other people in a seattle suburb. here is your first look at the other news going on around america today. a string of firebomb attacks on new year's day has new york police on the lookout for a hate crime suspect. an arsonist is suspected of religious targeting using several molotov cocktails. at tacks caused fire and property damage. a georgia family suffered a devastating loss when an suv crashed through their home

killing a 3 mo-month-old mold a injuring a 21-month-old. the children and their mother slept in the living room. it ran a stop son and lost control. the driver was arrested for vehicular homicide and additional charges. a collision on a kentucky highway nearly killed one trucker when his truck hit a wild turkey. the bird crashed throughout windshield hitting the driver in the face. he pulled over to toss the bird out on to the side of the road. it was later put down by an emergency crew. and finally, talk about your freak of nature. a winter snowstorm pounded most of downtown cleveland except for one area that happened to be 127 degrees. yeah. actually, a technical glitch caused a bank thermometer to display the wrong temperature instead of one in the high 20s. i'm going to guess it was 27 degrees and the one got stuck there. >> warm everyone's heart up a little bit.

maybe they thought they were in death valley, california. >> what is it going to look like today? 127? >> it's a cold morning. good morning. we have the snow yesterday. the lake-effect snow machine was in full blast. lake michigan, grand rapids got it pretty good. cleveland, ohio got it pretty good. northern indiana. you go right across every major lake and city and everyone saw some snow yesterday. syracuse, buffalo, rochester, even this morning in areas between cleveland and the areas you're still seeing snow. the big forecast is out in iowa. a lot of people wondering what the weather is going to be. it affects the turnout. and right now it's a cold morning. there's no doubt about it. zero in mason city. des moines has a wind chill of three. davenport, two. a lot of the big cities are cold. go through the afternoon, the winds are going to die down. there is no snow. by iowa standards, once we get highs in the 30s in most cases, des moines, 39, not bad at all. we're going to see a decent iowa day. so really turnout should be

great and the weather should not cause anyone to stay home. as far as the forecast goes, we mentioned the cold over the great lakes. chicago right now, your wind chill is 4. actually, it was 1 last hour. now the cold air could rise on the east coast. d.c., 19. one of the lowest wind chill value is atlanta at 12. even by florida standards that, cold air arrived. orlando has wand chill of 36. really, this is the first cold shot that made it down through florida. it's going to be short lived. i guess that's the only good news. it's today and tomorrow for the east coast. now midwest is already going to see a warmup beginning today. this warm front coming through. we'll see temperatures soaring in areas like denver, kansas city over the next two days. even minneapolis we go above freezing by the time we get tomorrow. chicago will jump 10 to 15 degrees. the good news is it's a two-day event. and the snow is going to come to an end during the day to day. just a couple streams coming off the lakes right now. one near buffalo, one on the north side -- excuse me, the northeast side of cleveland.

so as far as the forecast goes today, there may be a few flurries every now and then. the big cities, it's a cold day. temperatures near 30. wind chills will be in the teens. buffalo, you're one of the colder spots at only 14 degrees. that's it for your high temperature. as far as the southeast goes, atlanta, remember i told you how cold you were this morning, this afternoon, only 37. florida, it's a cold day at the theme parks. only 49 degrees in orlando. veronica, i don't think you're doing any wear the rides today in orlando. but no warmup in a hurry, too. >> yeah, not here either. not when it's going to be 29 degrees. thanks, bill. world markets get a jump on wall street. venezuela short changes exxon mobil and the strange soda defense. your first look at this morning's business headlines is straight ahead. overtime in the fiesta bowl, a record setting rose bowl and wild finish in the winter classic. you're watching "first look." [ monica ] i'm away on a movie shoot

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welcome back to "first look." here are some of the top stories making news this morning. iran says it successfully test fired a surface to surface cruise missile. iran is in complete control of the straight of harmus. and this morning, the head of iran's army warned the u.s. not to allow an american carrier back in the persian gulf after it was removed during iran's naval exercises. firm numbers from the front lines of mexico's drug war. mexican newspapers reports 12,000 people were killed in drug violence in 2011. 50,000 people have been killed since 2006 when there was a crack down on traffickers. an unusual sales record for guns. december 23rd was the second busiest day for gun purchases in history right behind black friday. records show more than a million and a half names were sent in for background checks last

month. and holidays are officially over for the first family. in hawaii, president obama and michelle said one final good-bye to well wishers before boarding air force one to return to washington. the markets were closed yesterday for the new year holiday. but here's your first look at how they'll kick off the day to day. dow opens at 12 snch,217. the s&p 500 lost five. nasdaq was down eight. taking a look at overseas trading this morning, in tokyo, neat okay gained 56 points. in hong kong, the hang seng surged 443. most major global markets start the year off returning to action today. but a few were open for business monday. germany and france led off 2012 rising on light volume on data showing recent european manufacturing activity improved slightly n asia this morning, stocks generally did well on that same european data. and oil rose above $100 a

barrel. nicholas sarkozy and angela merkel will join on talks for budget discipline rules for europe. venezuela will pay exxon mobil $250 million, less than a third of what it was awarded than the oil empire. christmas returns are expected to hit an all time high today at u.p.s. half a million plus, that's up almost 8% from last year. a federal court filing monday charging gross negligence, bp said all of the costs and damages from the 2010 gulf oil spill should be paid by halliburton, the cement contractor on the project. and finally, patentcy has an interesting but hardly reassuring defense against a lawsuit by a man claiming he found a mouse in his mountain dew. it's impossible because the soda would have dissolved the dead mouse before the man could have

found it. in health news this morning, according to a controversial new study, a strong embryo may help a weaker one survive in twin pregnancies created by in vitro fertilization. several studies found they roult in higher live birth rates, one expert argued the study's data fails to prove the concept of so-called embryo assistance. for more information on this story and other health news, always head to the web. check out our health page online at msnbc.com. hockey is winter showcase was a thriller and all the action from college football's biggest bowl day. plus, of all those bowl games, if you like scoring, the rose bowl was the one for you. your first look at sports is straight ahead. hey guys, breakfast!

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welcome back to "first look." in sports, monday was college football's big bowl day. here's nbc's mario solis. hi there. good morning. there were six bowl games yesterday. let's get right to it. first up, the tostitos fiesta bowl, stanford and oklahoma state xlafrpging touchdowns all game long. the cardinal with a chance to win it in the final seconds. jordan williamson shanks a field goal and we're off to overtime. the cowboys take lead for good. oklahoma state wins 41-38. another shootout this one in pasadena, oregon and wisconsin.

combining for a rose bowl record 83 points. de'anthony thomas had two carries. this one is taken 91 yards to the house. the other was a 64-yard touchdown. number 5 oregon shining brighter than their helmets win the grandaddy of them all 45-38. to the outback bowl, michigan state's bell ties the game and forces overtime with 14 seconds left. remains tied until the third ot. spartans up three when they block georgia's field goal attempt. michigan state wins 38-30 in triple overtime. a tumultuous ear came to a disappointing end for penn state. houston wins this one 30-14. south carolina's connor shaw had three touchdowns. two through the air and one on the ground. they beat nebraska to win the capital one bowl 30-13. to the gator bowl. special teams were truly special for florida. andre debouse returns a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown. they also block a punt and return it for a score.

florida beat ohio state 24-17. finally, can't forget about the winter classic in philly. nearly 47,000 saw the flyers jump out to a 2-0 lead. then the rangers score three unanswered. mike rupp with a pair. check out the celebration. the salute is exactly what the flyers jameer jagr does after he scores. rupp was having fun and so was henrik lundquist. rangers win the classic 3-2. and that's your first look at sports. i'm mario solis. and now for another quick look at the weather, here is nbc meteorologist bill karins with the weather channel forecast. i'm going to guess it's going to be really cold which means we should go ice skating. >> if it's really cold, you want to go ice skating? >> i've been bothering you to go ice skating with me for how long now? >> that's true. a little warmer day. i think when it's in the 40s. good morning, everyone. in case you're just joining us, we're watching very cold conditions in areas like iowa today. we're going to be focusing our attention on the caucuses. we are watching the wind chills

in the single digits in most areas. iowa city the warmest at 9. it's a very cold start in iowa. voting is not going to be an issue. no rain, no snow whatsoever. we did see snow showers overnight in many areas of pennsylvania. also upstate new york. still a couple areas of lake-effect snow. but the worst of it is overwith. that was yesterday. and it's getting colder by the hour. right now wind chill in buffalo is three. we're at 7 in pittsburgh. albany is 8. a lot of the people going back to school and back to work today, you definitely need all the winter gear on today. it will be cold all day, even for the afternoon ride home. 19 right now that wind chill in d.c. the forecast for today, temperatures are going to struggle. pretty much going to stay where they are in many cases. only in the upper 20s, low 30s. many of the suburbs will stay in the 20s. some areas like buffalo only getting up to 14 degrees today. here's got news. it's short lived. i mean look at d.c. today's 32. tomorrow, another cold day. but then we quickly warm it up. look at d.c. by saturday. 55 degrees again. so this is just a short lived

little cold spell. then we go right back into our warm winter weather. so -- >> so confused by the weather. >> a lot of us are. >> i'm so confused. i'm not complaining. >> there's no snowstorms on the way either. so a lot of people wondering where the snow is. >> all right. who is getting married and who says that they never will again? plus, who would you choose to play him in a movie? wait until you hear his own choice. your first look at entertainment is straight ahead. you've done a good job. that's why i recommend a rinse like crest pro-health multi-protection. it helps you get a better dental check-up. so be ready for your next dental check-up. try any crest pro-health rinse.

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brand told new york mack significant r distinct that he and katie perry had no prenuptial. meaning where they wed, he is entitled to half her earnings as much as $20 million. wow. a pick on the life of elton john is in the works. elton john is reportedly lobbying for justin timber lake to take on the lead role. the 85-year-old fiancee hugh hefner is telling "people" magazine that he will never marry again. and finally, this summer, there will be another royal wedding. the queen of soul, aretha franklin announced she is marrying a long time friend monday. the 69-year-old joked, no, i'm not pregnant. in going back to the elton john bietighofu biopicture. >> someone tweeted philip seymour hoffman.

>> this is "first look" on msnbc. stay tuned. "way too early" with willy geist starts right now. it is caucus day in iowa. mit romney after months of playing coy about the state is going all in. the question is will anything other than a win be a blow to his campaign? rick santorum made a push to the top tier in the last week or so. the question is, will he rise to his not romney status to an upset win? and ron paul believes his you are supporters are undersurveyed and he'll surprise the pundits tonight. quet is, what would a paul win in iowa mean to the race for the nomination? it is "way too early" for this.