the much anticipated ukrainian counter offensive has so far achieved little. what many experts have feared for long is gradually turning into reality. the war is likely to result in a frozen conflict or an apparent truce. the latest announcements that denmark and the netherlands will deliver f-16 fighter jets to ukraine are also unlikely to change the scenario. some that denmark and the netherlands will deliver f-16 fighter jets voices in the west have already started to suggest that that denmark and the netherlands will deliver f-16 fighter jets ukraine give up land for nato membership, an idea that that denmark and the netherlands will deliver f-16 fighter jets ukraine has called ridiculous. meanwhile, russia is trying to win new friends at the brics summit and is yet again

blaming the west for ukraine's fate. so on to the point, we are asking land for peace, should ukraine concede territory to russia? hello and welcome to the point. i'm misha hassan here in berlin. ukraine is fighting a tough battle. meanwhile, the news of wagner chief prego allegedly being aboard a plane that crashed in russia has caught everyone's attention. so how will things turn out for ukraine now to understand this? i have three spectacular guests with me today we have miriam cosme. she is an expert on eastern europe at the battles. next on the panel is commander joran sws. he is a visiting fellow at the german institute for international and security affairs. swp and writes

extensively on military and security issues and joining us from our headquarters in bonn, we have roman goncharenko. he works for dws russian desk and has been reporting since the beginning of the war in ukraine. a very warm welcome to you all. thank you for joining. ukraine is struggling beginning of the war in ukraine. a very warm welcome russia is trying to win new friends at bricks. and then we have this news about wagner, how is all russia is trying to win new friends at bricks. and this developing? how will all of this affect the war now? i do not think that what has happened to pri goin will affect the war directly. i think that russia's picture is in south africa weaker as vladimir putin would wish for. you said he is looking for new friends. certainly so and he has certainly over the past weeks before this plane crash, seen to it that the

situation in africa is prepared somehow with the major commanders of the wagner group. it has been very active, the central african republic, libya and so on to kind of get this under control. but at the same time, he is abiding by the global rules that he is mocking by not appearing in person. so at least he is is abiding by the global rules that he is mocking not reaching out to new friends from a strong position not from a strong position. roman, i'd like to know from you. how are the reactions in ukraine to the plane crash now. well, the reactions were rather reserved. i would say of course many people who are very, very plane crash now. well, the reactions were rather reserved. i happy because as his wagner group have killed a lot of ukrainians since 2014 when they first were sent to ukraine to fight in donbas. and some of them also participated in the annexation of crimea. but in general, the

feeling is that the the cracks in the russian system of power that became visible during the prego meeting that they will remain. and the hope is that someday they will be bigger. and of course, ukrainians follow the the they will remain. and the hope is that someday they situation inside the russian military and had some at least they will remain. and the hope is that someday they someme supporters there. he ws criticizing the russian defense minister sergei shou and vladimir putin refused to remove him from someme supporters there. he ws criticizing the russian defense minister his position. so when she stays, this will in the someme supporters there. he ws criticizing the russian defense minister short or middle term perspective, will weaken the russian army because the he's not popular. and if he stays, this will undermine the russian, the russian war in ukraine. but for the moment, the situation seems stable for moscow, we'll probably hear more about the reported plane crash in the

future. um i'd like to understand about the counter offensive and how the war where the war stands as of now. is it already a frozen conflict? would you say that i wouldn't say this in our society? we often have the picture in mind when we speak about a counter offensive that we see two forces on a battlefield have the picture in mind when we speak about a clashing at each other. but military operations work differently totally differently. you have aspects to, you need to take into consideration like psychological aspects, logistics, et cetera. and i think what i can observe from the uk ukrainian count of offensive that is developed plan that takes these effects into consideration, they work with signaling, they work with psychological effects they target also the logistics behind the battlefield. so all these other aspects have a very important momentum and this momentum can be much bigger than the actual clash on the battlefield. and i think that's the point where the ukrainian forces are working on to create these effects in

order to weaken. then the russian side on the battlefield and to regain the territory taken from it by russia ukraine needs more sophisticated systems like the f-16 fighter jets and the torus cruise missiles. while moscow has repeatedly warned against the delivery of such weapons systems, a fierce fight for russia and ukraine both report successes. it's difficult to against the delivery of such weapons systems, a fierce fight say which reports are accurate. what's certain the ukrainian counter offensive has not been as successful as hoped. however, ukrainian president zelensky was able to announce one success this week offensive has not been as successful as hoped. however, ukrainian ukraine is getting f-16 fighter jets, denmark and the netherlands have promised to deliver around 60 to ukraine. it will ukraine is getting f-16 fighter jets, denmark and the netherlands take months before they are deployable which is the breakthrough ukraine is getting f-16 fighter jets, denmark and the netherlands needed for the ongoing offensive. ukraine also wants german tourist

cruise missiles with no agreement in place yet. these missiles can fly hundreds of kilometers far into russian territory which is why germany is still reluctant to supply them for weeks. the german government has been assuring ukraine that they are assessing the situation. f-16 fighter jets and a tour cruise missiles bring new momentum to the counter offensive. what is it that the f-16s and the torus missiles can do that? other weapon systems can't? well, several aspects here as well. let's start with the point of the f-16s after the decision now made to deliver f-16 16 s from the netherlands and denmark, it will take up to half a year approximately until they are delivered until the pilots are trained and you can see them in ukraine

it is a very political signal. i would say it's not military necessary necessary, i would say because currently there is no air dominance for ukraine around its territory. so flying these aircraft operating them, it's very dangerous. they can be easily targeted from the russian side. so at the moment, other systems would be more necessary air defense systems ammunition, et cetera. but the momentum here, the political signal is we continue with the support. there are new weapons systems we are delivering. so it's more a political signal than a military. and why are those systems not being discussed? they are. but i think with the ammunition and the other air defense systems, we are already looking into scare capacities in the other countries because we delivered so much am ammunition already. our economy is not at the point where we can deliver constantly more, it needs to be reproduced. also, the air defense system, the iris system

is a very complex system that needs a certain time be reproduced. also, the air defense system, the iris system to be produced. so it's nothing we have on the shelf to deliver. but you say it's a political decision then why did it take for the us so long to give permission for the f-16s? well, very important point from the biden administration or for the biden administration is not to escalate. they always say this and what they say is also, they don't want to have nato getting into an escalating situation with russia. and also on the second aspect here, the second thing we need to look at is the main focus of the biden administration is still in the, in the pacific with china. so they don't want to be involved too much into europe. so still in the, in the pacific with china. so they that's why they are hesitant to bring more material, more troops, maybe or more commitment at least to europe because they have a focus on the other side of the globe just said that it will take a long time

for the f-16s to be delivered. now, this is not the first time that it's going to take this long there have been other promises in the past and the ukrainian side is already showing frustration that they haven't been given stuff that they've been promised. why is everything taking so long because in our political considerations, it has not been taken account of the fact that things as gus just said, need time to actually be there and be made available. and that is a flaw that has been going through our way of accompanying ukraine and supporting ukraine and rightly, so ukraine is disappointed or pointing to the fact that this is leading to very concrete losses of

human beings on the battle field because as a matter of fact, and what is happening right now is that ukraine is fighting in an offensive, which is always more risky and more difficult. but on top, it is fighting in a already difficult territory that has been so heavily mined. as i don't think there has been an example in, in, in warfare or maybe long back in africa but it's really, it's a very drastic challenge. and plus analysts have said that ukraine is being expected to fight in a way that would never fight because they are analysts have said that ukraine is being expected to fight demining and they are, they are trying to break through these defenses that russia has been built up has been demining and they are, they are trying to break through

building up in the time it took to supply certain weapons and they are doing that without air superiority, which building up in the time it took to supply certain is a reason for their losses. and of course, we are not only talking about such long length missiles and cruise missiles, but there is also not, there are not so many or not sufficient attack helicopters and they are kind of like picking those that russia has, but some are still available. so that's why you are suggesting that this is more of a symbolic help than a real one. i'm not saying it's symbolic but it's not enough it's not enough. i'd like to go to roman now it's not enough, but west has been supplying weapons. although the pace has been extremely slow. but how do you see this, the dependency that ukraine has on the west because of the weapons, doesn't that kind of give the

west a certain power to decide what kev's policy should be like? well, um, the west is already in very close talks with ukraine as what the policy should like be like? well, um, the west is already in very but it's ukrainians who have to decide how they, how they continue. so, um, and, um, speaking about weapons, yes the west has been delivering a lot of weapons to ukraine, but it's not enough as the, we've just heard i totally agree with that. um, when i was last time in ukraine in spring, i asked about f-16s, the ukrainian soldiers and officers and they told me we need them a lot, but we don't think that this will ukrainian soldiers and officers and they told me we need be a kind of a magic silver bullet. so they ukrainian soldiers and officers and they told me we need don't believe anymore that any kind of single weapon will decide the course of this war. so they just need tanks and artillery and shells for those tanks in alter as well as the f-16s. so it's a war of attrition, not a frozen conflict and in a war of

attrition to win it. ukraine needs sustainable weapons deliveries. this is what has been promised to ukraine in vilnius at the nato summit. but something that is being questioned now in the american press. so the question is maybe we will not support you as long as it takes in the end. this is the question question mark. so we do not know the answer to that question. the sources are anonymous in the united states media but with the presidential campaign next year starting now, we will hear more are anonymous in the united states media but with the and more such voices probably. and this is what worries ukraine. ukraine is worried about how steady will this flow and more such voices probably. and this is what worries of weapons be from the west. and maybe this is the reason why the president president zelensky in his address on the independence day in ukraine was talking more than usual about the ukrainian local production about ukrainian owned weapons developed. and we've seen that those weapons were successfully used

in the black sea attacking russian ships. so on the one hand, we are talking about help from the west and on the the hand, the west seems to be getting impatient. a close associate of the nato secretary general stein jensen recently said in an interview that ukraine should give up part of its territory for peace and get stein jensen recently said in an interview that ukraine should nato membership in return. though he did apologize for his comment later, the statement caused a stir land for peace a statement t that had not coe from brussels s headquarters so far should parts of the territories in the south and east annexed in violation of international law since 2014 and now contested be ceded. ukraine is currently fighting to recapture them. this proposal is unimaginable for the president. dark humor as belgrad belongs to russia, not ukraine. if secretary

general jens stoltenberg attempts to assuage the tensions is exchanging territory for ukraine's membership in nato. just a misunderstanding or is there more to it? how do you see that territory for ukraine's membership in nato. just a misunderstanding or was the statement really blown out of proportion or is nato working on a plan b? i would say it's not an official nato position in the run up to the summit of nato earlier this year, many scenarios have been discussed because one of the main points on the agenda dominating the agenda of the summit was nato membership for ukraine. so the allies discussed scenarios if this could

happen, how it could happen. and at the end, one of the major points made by the us, but also by germany. as long as the war is going on nato, ukraine will not become part of nato. that was one of the major points. so other allies then on their national bilateral initiative developed scenarios how they could support provide maybe security guarantees, security support to ukraine. there have their national bilateral initiative developed scenarios how they could support been several ideas coming out from the baltic states, lithuania but also other countries, macron gave an interesting speech in bratislava for security guarantees or about security guarantees. so there have been some initiatives, what countries are considering or planning maybe but not in a framework currently. so it's not an official option, but it is one of the options

being discussed off the table. i think all options should be on the table and discussed otherwise you are unprepared for what might come. um in the end, many people think and i think that would be where the biden administration. but also our current german government is looking for having a short term solution. a quick solution for the conflict. this negotiations may be if the situation would be right. if ukraine, ukraine armed forces could achieve a momentum where russia then goes back from its aims targets in this war and says, ok, we will sit at a table. that's probably one scenario they are thinking about it but it's not guiding principle. currently, at least not for stoltenberg's words. only the ukrainians can decide who is really going to decide the fate of the war. zelinsky or is it putin? it's not only zelensky, it's the ukrainian

people who in almost uni so have said that that is it putin? it's not only zelensky, it's the ukrainian is not this so called land versus peace proposal. that is it putin? it's not only zelensky, it's the ukrainian that is out of question because it's not territories, it's people living, they are on these territories and having suffered human rights violations and atrocities since 2014. and it's not peace either because there is no concept what to do with russia. i mean, russia is not changing. putin is peace either because there is no concept what to do not reconsidering his approach at all. his words stand that he sees europe in 1997 terms and it's a threat to european security, what he is continuously doing and to he sees europe in 1997 terms and it's a threat global security because it has also an after effect if we accept that subjective, that out of order moving of

borders. so i do not think that that is something that i am sure that is not something that ukraine can accept. but i am also sure that that is not something that we can accept because of the reasons can accept. but i am also sure that that is i just gave. so can there be a peace treaty there can be a peace treaty? but only as roman kenko has rightly said it's a vicious war of attrition what we have right now. and only if that war leads on the battle field to a situation that makes putin reconsider, we then have the opportunity to actually go into negotiation, but not in that situation right now. if you talk about a peace treaty, the only peace treaty i currently can imagine would be if russia leaves all occupied territories. that's what also the aims of the ukrainian side is having its occupied territories back. so that's the occupied territories. that's what also the aims of the ukrainian

only position currently where i can see a peace treaty other than this, it will be easy, a war of attrition or we create ukrainian forces together with the support from the west. we create a momentum where ukraine can achieve on the battlefield but also aligned with other operations in the information space in the psychological space effects to toggle the russian armed forces. meanwhile, president vladimir putin has in the information space in the psychological space effects to used the brics summit to defend and justify russia's war in ukraine. putin went o on to accuse the west of unleashing the war. the emerging economies want to form a counterbalance to the prosperous west brics. countries account for about 40% of the world's population and about a quarter of the world's economic output. the brics countries could grow more 40% of the world's population and about a quarter of than 40 countries are interested in joining russian president putin

joined only by video call. he was facing arrest on an international criminal court warrant for putin. it was an opportunity to show that russia has powerful allies is the brics alliance as influential cohesive and powerful as it seems could the geopolitical world order be on the verge of fundamental change? miriam, none of the brics member states have taken any steps against russia. we heard 40 countries are now interested. six, we heard this morning have been approved now is putin trying to use bricks as a shield of course, he is trying it. but let's see to which extent it will be successful. because after all, we are talking about a group of countries that for themselves have serious considerable differences and we have the three democracies

and we have russia and china and we have conflicts between china and india. and we do not have serious peace proposals, plans neither proposed by china. it's by the way, a shortcut we would have wished for because we did see or do see china as a powerful, as a regional power that could influence russia, but they decided not to do so. so back to your question, putin is trying but to what extent it will work also i think depend on us, but i don't think it will work as smoothly because south africa and also brazil i don't think they see themselves as on the russian side. they see themselves as swing states following their interests

i would say more f not swing states, they are observing what's going on, but they also bringing their own position into this like the african initiative when they went to ukraine and moscow for peace. and while they have been in kiev, kiev was attacked by the russian side so i think especially south africa has a strong position on this war. but also brazil, if you look on the statements from the brazilian president, you see that's not on this war. but also brazil, if you look on a united block to brexit, even if russia would wish it. i'd like to go to roman before we conclude the show, roman, russia is likely to host the brics summit next year. how is that being perceived in ukraine well, ukraine is currently opic part with the war and is trying to pull at least some of the brics countries on its side, we see more ukrainian diplomatic activity is trying to pull at least some of the brics on the african continent which was kind of neglected by

by the ukrainian authorities in the past years. uh if i may just two or three brief remarks to what we've been discussing about this proposal to exchange land for i may just two or three brief remarks to what peace, i think it's a very dangerous discussion because it undermines the western and ukrainian efforts to stop this war just remember the west said before supplying those heavy weapons those tanks to ukraine, that ukraine should be in a position in a stronger position to negotiate with russia. we are not there yet. the fighting continues and that's why ukraine needs more weapons, not discussions about giving up because vladimir putin is just waiting for the west to blink so to say, and then he think that he has more resources and then he will win in a year or two. thanks, roman. now, will any of the brics member states be able to get a peace deal signed between russia and ukraine that needs to be seen or will ukraine have to give up territory? what do you