02/04/20 02/04/20 [captioning made possible by democracy now!] amy: from new york, this is democracy now! >> let me begin by stating that i imagine, have a strong feeling that at some point the result will be announced. results arese announced, i have a good feeling we are going to be doing very, very well here in iowa. >> by all indications, we are

going on to new hampshire victorious. amy: chaos and confusion in iowa is the state democratic party delays releasing results from monday's caucus. pete buttigieg claims victory, but senator bernie sanders releases internal data suggesting he won. one thing is clear, it was not a good night for former vice president joe biden. we will get the latest. dennis sanders surges in national polls, we will host a debate between david frum and bhaskar sunkara on whether bernie sanders is the democrats best bet to be donald trump as the democratic candidate in all november. that and more, coming up. welcome to democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman. the outcome of the iowa

democratic caucus is still undecided after purported inconsistencies led to confusion in the reporting of the results. the iowa democratic party says it expects to release the results at some point today. issues with h a new app beiningd in the caucuses are believed to be partly to blame for the delay. the app, built by the company shadow, was reportedly not tested at scale or vetted by the homeland security department's cybersecurity agency before being deployed in the caucuses. the d.c.-based shadow is connected to the digital strategy firm acronym founded by a former staffer of barack obama's 2012 re-election campaign. early this morning, senator bernie sanders' campaign released internal caucus numbers from 40% of the precincts in iowa showing the vermont senator in first place, followed by former south bend mayor pete buttigieg. this is senator bernie sanders speaking monday night. arehen those results

announced, i have a good feeling we are going to be doing very, very well here in iowa. in the message that iowa has messagethe nation, the shared by the american people is that we want a government that represents all of us, not just wealthy campaign contributors and the 1%. amy: mayor pete buttigieg, meanwhile, claimed victory in iowa despite the lack of official results. minnesota senator amy klobuchar told supporters "we are punching above our weight," while massachusetts senator elizabeth warren said the race was too close to call. and former vice president joe biden said his campaign would be leaving iowa with "our share of delegates." we'll have more on the chaos and confusion in iowa after headlines.

house impeachment mamanagers and president trump's defense team presented their closing arguments in trump's impeachment trial monday as the republican-controlled senate is poised to acquit trump in a final vote on the two articles of impeachment wednesday. this is lead impeachment manager, california congressmember adam schiff. >> he has betrayed our national security and he will do so again. he has compromised our elections and he will do so again. you will not change him. you cannot constrain him. he is who he is. truth metals little tim. what is right matters less and decency matters not at all. amy: as the historic impeachment is set to wrap up, president trump will address the nation tonight for r the state of the union. several democratic lawmakers say they will boycott the address, while others are expected to don white outfits to send a message to trump -- a reference to the suffragette movement. a 39 year-old man in hong kong became the second person to die

from coronavirus outside of mainland china today. hong kong has shut 13 of its 16 border checkpoints with mainland china as pressure mounts to seal off the semi-autonomous region off completely. over 2500 medical workers in hong kong are on s strike to demand the border closure as the infectious disease spreads. this is a hong kong nurse leslie lee. experiencedave sars, i don't want hong kong to become like it was 17 years ago. i hope the government listens to our demand and quickly brings this epidemic under control. amy: the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus is surging by over 2000 per day and the death toll topped 425 earlier today, surpassing that of the deadly sars outbreak in 2003. to see our extenended discussios thet the coronavirus with

pulitzer prize winning journalist lori garrett, go to democracynow.org. a leaked audio recording between an air-traffic controller and an iranian pilolot appears to show avavtion authohorities were awae ththat a ukrainian passenger jet hahad been shot t down last mom, kikilling all 17176 people on b. the iranian government denied they were involved in the plane's downing for three days following the crash before conceding the iranian revolutionary guards accidentally launched a missile atat the boeing g 737 jet. tehran has said they are halting cooperation with kiev following the release of the leaked exchange b by ukrainian media on sunday. in syria, turkish warplanes launched airstrikes against syrian regime troops after at least six turkish soldiers were killed by artillery strikes. the turkish airstrikes represent a major escalation of the battle in the northwestern syrian province of idlib, where a russian-backed syrian regime offensive has already sent nearly three quarters of a million syrian c civilians fleeg towardrd the turkish border.

prisoners at a maxim -- maximum security prison in shirley, massachusetts, say guards have beaten and tasered them, as well as withheld food and denied them access to lawyers over recent weeks as retaliation for an attack on correctional officers last month. a lawyer who interviewed prisoners at the souza-baranowski correctional center says several had to be hospitalized because of the severity of their injuries. a lawsuit has been filed against the massachusetts department of correction over the prison's refusal to let inmates meet with lawyers. defense attorney lisa newman-polk, who represents an affected prisoner, told boston public radio -- "targeting the prison as a whole through collective punishment is not only an ineffective strategy to shape behavior, it's criminal." in new york, the trial is set to begin today for a former cia software engineer who is charged with leaking thousands of agency documents, known as "vault 7," to wikileaks. joshua schulte was charged with violating the espionage act in

2018 for the leak, which revealed cia programs and tools that are capable of hacking into both apple and android cellphones. a dramatic scene unfolded in a new york city courtroom monday as harvey weinstein accuser jessica mann broke down and went into an apparent panic attack during questioning from the disgraced movie mogul's lawyers, forcing the judge to adjourn proceedings for the day. mann was made to read past emails to a boyfriend, in which she disclosed she had been sexually assaulted before meeting weinstein. she accuses weinstein of raping her in new york and los angeles and said she had an "extremely degrading" relationship with him. she is one of six women testifying against weinstein in his new york rave trial. two people were killed and a child was injured monday after a shooting at a residential hall at texas a&m university in commerce. no details about the shooter or

their motivations have beenn released. in anotherer incidence of gunn violence monday,y, a gunman kild one persrson and injnjured at lt five others after opening g fire inside a a greyhound bus t travg from los angeleles to the bay area. maryland is holding a special primary election today to fill the congressional seat left empty following the death of congressman elijah cummings last october. one of the candidates is cummings' widow, maya rockeymoore cummings. a special general election will take place in april to determine the winner. and in new york city leaders of , the dignidad literaria campaign -- or literary dignity in english -- are celebrating after the publisher macmillan, which owns flatiron books, has agreed to expand latinx representation in its staff and its publications. the movement formed in response to the controversial novel "amen dirt," which critics say exploits and misrepresents

mexico and the experience of mexican migrants and erases the experience of central americans. the author, jeanine cummins, who is not mexican, received a seven-figure advance for the book, which was widely lauded by public figures including oprah winfrey. she chose it as a book-of-the-month. flatiron was forced to cancel cummins' book tour over the mounting criticism. the campaign is also calling for an investigation into discriminatory practices in the publishing industry at l large. and those are some of the headlines. this is democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman. juan: and i'm juan gonzalez. welcome to all of our listeners and viewers from around the country and around the world. chaos in iowa. the iowa democratic party has delayed releasing results from monday's caucus after uncovering inconsistencies in the reporting of data. caucuses were held in 1600 precincts across the state on monday, but many precincts had

trouble reporting the delegate totals to the state democratic party. part of the blame was placed on a new smartphone app which was designed to help precinct chairs tabulate and report the vote. the app was built by a d.c.-based company called shadow which is connected to the veterans of f hillary clclintond barack obama's campaign elections. amy: early this morning, bernie sanders' campaign released internal caucus numbers from 40% of the precincts in iowa showing the vermont senator was in first place with nearly 30% of the final count vote. according to the data released by the sanders campaign, former south bend mayor pete buttigieg placed second with about 24.5% of the vote, followed by senator elizabeth warren with 21%. former vice president joe biden placed a distant fourth with 12%, just slightly beating senator amy kloubuchar. before flying to new hampshire, senator sanders addressed supporters in iowa.

>> let me begin by stating that i imagine, have a strong feeling that at some point the result will be announced. and when those results are announced, i have a good feeling we are going to be doing very, very well here in iowa. and the message that iowa has sent to the nation, the message shared by the american people is that we want a government that represents all of a sky not just wealthy campaign -- all of us, not just wealthy campaign contributors and the 1%. juan: former south bend mayor pete buttigieg claimed victory in iowa even though no official

results had been released. >> by all indications, we are going on to new hampshire victorious. we have exactly one shot to defeat donald trump. and we are not going to do it by overreaching, not by division, not going to goodbye saying it is my way or the highway. this is our shot. our only shot to galvanize an american majority to win. and make no mistake, ours is the campaign that will defeat this president. amy: senator elizabeth warren also addressed supporters in iowa in a latete night speech. >> we don't know all of the results for tonight, but tonight has already showed that americans have a deep hunger for big structural change to make our economy and our democracy work for everyone. tonight showed that our path to

victory is to fight hard for the changes americans are demanding. changes that democrats, independents, and republicans are demanding. our agendawed that is not just a progressive agenda, it isn't just a democratic agenda, it is in american agenda. amy: we are joined now by john nichols, the nation's national-affairs correspondent and host of the podcast "next left." he's been reporting on the ground in iowa and just wrote the piece "how to figure out who 'won' the iowa caucuses." he was in dubuque, iowa, covering the caucus last night and joins us now from madison, wisconsin. welcome back to democracy now! can you explain what happened last night? they chaos, the confusion, the breakdown of the counting system? can try, although it

is a mess that is going to be talked about for a long time and will impact, i think, the future of the iowa caucuses. i will start at the bottom. i went to a caucus last night in dubuque in precinct 9a. as in cases across the state in 1600 precincts, grassroot volunteers ran a caucus very well. it was complicated. they have a lot of complicated rules. in about an hour and a half, they had everything done dedealg with more thahan 200 people that showed up in lots of campaigns. this happened all over the state. it looked like a night that was working. and then as the chairs of these caucuses tried to communicate the results to the state party, everything fell apart. that youe was an app mention in the intro that have been distributed to the chairs, the people who run these caucuses.

again, these are volunteers. they had trouble getting -- apparently, getting into it. they had trouble using it. there were all sorts of concerns. we can detail it more if you like in a moment. the interesting thing is, then they were told there was a hotline you can call if the app doesn't work. so all of these chairs around the state started calling the hotline. there were reports that people were waiting on hold on the hotline for an hour, even two hours. sometimes when they finally got through, it hung up. the thing just wasn't working. for a long time, there were no results. thousands of people at all of these campaign rallies and events at the end of the night, the senators and former vice president, everybody waiting for results. and the people all over the world waiting for results. there was not clarity. and then the party says, well, we have got some quality control problems.

that sense of alarm bells immediately. there aresay, well, inconsistencies. then in a series of statements, they try to defend it and say ultimately we will get this right. and they may comome up but it ws just a fiasco by any measure. you ended up in a situation where three candidates were at least several candidates, essentially, claimed victory and where you have this situation with the sanders cap releasing partial results. the truth of the matter is, well i do think it looks like bernie sanders a very good night, we don't know even now the next morning. it has created -- i can't even begin to describe the frustration on the part, not just of campaigns and people around the country, but of i went who themselves devoted tremendous amounts of energy and making these caucuses work at the grass roots. juan: john, what is most surprising, as you mentioned, even if there were some precinct

that had trouble reporting, there must have been a good number of precincts that actually got the results in an for which there were probably not any questions but the fact they are not releasing any results makes me think back to when mexico several years ago in the presidential election stopped the vote counting and the next day somebody else had won. this whole issue of not releasing a result is especially problematic, but i think -- i wonder if you can comment on that, but also there seems to be little doubt the big news of the night is that joe biden did not have anywhere near the support that most of the polls were indicating beforehand that he had, even though his numbers were already sleeping. it looks like it is even worse than that. >> you raised two important issues. let me try and address them

both. the e first thing you're talking about, releasing the results. it is complicated. when you have a little bit in and if you do actually see inconsistencies, you want to be a little careful with that. but one of the problems in iowa is this is the third cycle in a row they have had kind of big problems and some controversies about hohow things were handled. in 2012, there were initial reports that i believeve romney won republican caucuses in it turned out it was rick santorum. santorum was denied the boost of having been declared the winner. in 2016, there w was an incrediy close result and they did not release the raw totals of how people showed up for the caucuses lined up on the democratic side. that cost a lot of concern and controversy. and now you have this. the iowa democratic party should maximumcticed transparency from the first moment and done its very best to get information out about the problem come in if they could,

release partial results as well. that is the answer to one of those questions. on the second one, yeah, i went to a caucus myself. it was in dubuque. dubuque is a historic uniontown, pretty demococratic town, but ao place where presumably joe biden would have done quite well. i expected him to do pretty well in dubuque. it is one of the reasons i went there. when they did the initial breakup just in my caucus, joe running --arely essentially running about as well as andrew yang. as the night went on, biden char voters.me klobu in dubuque, in a town i thought he would have been doioing definitetely better, he was a wk fourth. i heard from acrcross iowa anecdotally from precincts all over that his numbers were falling way short of what was expected. that is significant because the

iowa caucuses produce many losers.and some you can finish second in iowa and claim a better-than-expected run. you can even finish down the liline like andrew yang and stil point to a lot of people e who showed up anand were enthusiastc about your candidacycy. so not having those numbers creates a lack of clarity. it makes it hard for people who have done well to capitalize on their show of strength. but it also makes it hard for people trying to analyze the race and get a sense of who has got things going on. that is where the biden factor comes up. because if indeed biden, the former vice president of the united states running is the presumed front runner for most of this race even in iowa and certainly talked about a front runner nationally, finishedd a significant that is and frankly, the kind of thing that should have been part of

the discussion last night and this morning. in fact, to add one final thing on the complexity of this, we are on a state of the union day. the timelines of news cycles become important. if you don't get the results of and wellcaucuses clear presented, pretty quickly today, we are going to be watchching donald trump give his state of the union address and in effect the ability of the democratic winner in iowa to communicate truncated.win is it is limited. ift was a rereally close race, that would be understood. but if it is just a follow-up by the peoplple that are supposed o be getting the results and, they are affecting a national race for the president of the united states, when they claim to want to -- they said they wanted to be the first, they wanted to get this guarded. if they message of this badly,

it really raises questions about whether they should be doing it. amy: this is not the only reason. yep so much focus last night on the iowa caucuses and cameras took on the networks took you and all of these caucuses, overwhelmingly white, iowa is well over 90% white. when the democratic party is like half people of color. this is the first election contest that determines so much. of thehave that on top crisis that took place last night. >> if i could add one other thing, too. the caucuses are long. you have to get there around of an :00 before to get in. then you take an hour or even an hour and a half and is some cases longer than that and for working class folks, folks who work nights, that can be really tough. there were few efforts to try to set up satellite caucuses and other systems.

basically, these caucuses had very low turnout as compared to primaries. as i was sitting there last night watching the caucus i was at play out, you had people walking back and forth across the room and counts and recounts. it had a theater to it. it was interesting. at the end of the night, yet ask yourself, wouldn't it be easier if you let these people vote? amy: you also have the information about the company that developed the app. i was wondering what more you know? the washington examiner saying filings reveal buttigieg's campaign gave tens of thousands of dollars to shadow on july 23 last year for software righghts and subscriptions.. thehe well here. i don't know much beyond that. whatat i will say is this is a moment in which this company,

which i i believe, if i'm hearig reports correctly, has also created an app or has ann app that might be used in the nevada caucuses. this compapany needs to go to maximum traransparency right no. we n need to know everything abt their r working with, who is involved with that -- not to try and spell conspiracies, but to get to the bottom of it, to know whwhat i is real.. so we have two areas here now where we really want to get a lot more clarity. we want the iowa democratic party to go to maximum clarity, maximum transparency, let us know what went wrong, why, who they w were working with, why ty were doing it, and is much as we can about the results. let's get it right. and also with this company. we need to know the full story. and we need it quickly. remember, fofor better or worse, we have set up a nominating in the in this country

democratic party where you go very quickly from the caucuses in iowa to the primary in new hampshire on to s south carolina and nevada. if you have got lingering problems like this, it really does raise concerns. it undermines confidence, frankly. i have to tell you, i was at the caucus -- the caucus i went to, a massive number of yououng peoe who were caucusing for the first time. they are entering the political process and they are coming with a lot of hope, a lot of idealism, a lot of belief they can have an impact. and then to have it glitching and messing up and have controversies, that is just exactly wrong. if you could briefly switch gears for a second and talk about a story that has been largely eclipsed now with the mess in iowa, house impeachment

managers and president trump's defense team presenting their closing arguments in the impeachment trial on monday as the republican-controlled senate is poised to acquit trump in a final vote on the two articles of impeachment wednesday. this is lead impeaeachment manar california congressmember adam schiff. >> he has betrayed our national security and he will do so again. he has compromised our elections and he will do so again. you will not change him. you cannot constrain him. he is who he is. truth matters lilittle to him. what is s rightt matters even l. and decency matters not at all. john, could you talk about just give us briefly your take on what is going on with the impeachment? >> it doesn't look like we are curing realism all that well. impeachment is supposed to work in it certain way, supposed to have the house impeachment and

then you moved to the senate. the matter is, under mitch mcconnell's management, this has not been a serious trtrial. it is been a mass without wiwitnesses, withohout -- bad te trtricks, terrible theory put forward by trump's team. now we're going to move to speeches by the senenators. those are veryry important. i went to hear what they have to sasay. they are already beginning. i think that is important and yet it is playing out on this rushed schedule built around a state of thehe union in the mide of it. day, at the end of the atch mcconnell is arguably defining figure inin america, fr beyond just senate majority leader. he has managed this thing on behalf of donald trump in ways that are just incredibly offensive. this should be going slower. we should have time for a discourse -- if they need to put

it o on hold a couple of days, t the iowa caucuses play, let the state of the union occur, and then spend the rest of the week having the closing argrgents and the senator speeches and the vote that is inevitable, that would have been so much better. but here i fear that this important final moment is kind of getting lost in cacophony. i am dramatically disappointed. believe me, for me to be more disappointed than i have been before and mitch mcconnell is shocking because i thought i had reached maximum disappointment. but the way he is handling this like aow is really just manager for donald trump, and it is just wrong. amy: it will be very interesting to hear president trump's state of the union address as he is about to be ended -- in fact -- if in fact he is tomorrow. and coming out of the chaos of iowa. i'm sure he wiwill have a lot to sasay about democratic failures.

>> i suspect he will. amy: john nichols, thank you for being with us the nation's , national-affairs correspondent and host of the podcast "next left." his forthcoming book is titled "the fight for the soul of the democratic party: the enduring legacy of henry wallace's anti-fascist, anti-racist politics." stay with us. ♪ [music break]

amy: this is democracy now!, i'm amy goodman with juan gonzalez. chaotic night in iowa come the focus of the democratic race has now shiftetd to new hampshire. senator bernie sanders is leading in most new hampshire polls a week ahead of the state's primary. while sanders has been surging in popularity across part of the country, the democratic party establishment is openly expressing concern that the self-described democratic socialist could win the nomination. politico reports some members of the democratic national committee have privately

discussed rewriting the party's rules about superdelegates in an attempt to stop sanders. the democratic national committee has already overhauled requirements for the next debate to allow mike bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of new york, to participate. up until now, the dnc required candidates obtain a significant number of small donations, but bloomberg is self-funding his campaign. bernie sanders' senior adviser jeff weaver described the rule change as "the definition of a rigged system." amy: while bernie sanders faces attacks from the corporate wing of the democratic party, many of his supporters say he is the candidate best suited to beat president trump in november. sanders critics say it is unrealistic to think self-described socialist could win. to talk more about this, we are joined by two guests. david frum is a staff writer at the atlantic and the author of

"trumpocracy: the corruption of the american republic." in 2001 and 2002, he served as a speechwriter for president george w. bush and was credited with coming up with the famous term "axis of evil" in the 2002 state of or address referring to iraq, iran, and north korea, well known for years as supporter of the iraq war. his recent article is headlined "bernie can't win." he joins us from toronto, canada. here in new york is bhaskar sunkara, the founding editor and publisher of jacobin and the author of "the socialist manifesto: the case for radical politics in an era of extreme inequality." sunkara's recent piece in the guardian is titled "sanders is leading the pack in iowa -- and that's good news for democrats." let's start with you, bhaskar sunkara. why do you feel senator sanders,

who has looked like he may well have won the iowa caucus and could go on to win new hampshire and is very prominent in major polls in the united states right nationally, could win the election? >> i think we should remember even though bernie sanders is an outsider and has a set of politics that is pretty unique in american politics and is a subject crime -- scrub temer product socialist, has been on the left of his entire political career, he is not an unknown. he is not a stranger. he is someone who has run consistently in statewide elections in vermont and has outpaced democratic presidential candidates in vermont. he is someone who has had a truck of success for 30 or 40 years and someone familiar with the democratic party and dependent moderates. he is been able to wither all sorts of storms.

i think this idea that sanders is this outsider of radicals is someone like me, on the left, and upon his have pushed, but the truth is he is not that scary and that usual to a lot of people. they say they know who bernie is. juan: david frum, as a republican opponent of donald trump come your advice to the democrat party? they are crazy? >> i donon't t use the word cray because e i u understand what ty do and where they feel. i come at this from a conservative republican point of view. i think donald trump is a tremendous danger to american institutions. and were fefeel as i do not a decisive group, we represent an important group. many of ththe people who voteded democrat i in the 2018 elections to stop donald trump to give the congress house of representatives that could check him. from our point of viview, this s a moment of tremendous danger and it cal on alall of us to

mamake sacrifices of some of our prefeferences. it wasas not easy y for me to ve for hillary clinton and 2016. one of the places that i think isis to rememember if you ask americans a question, how a are you fefeeling about your r fina, your health care, you get in 202020 the most posititive resps of any yearr since 1998. while bebernie sanders speaks to the disaffected, the people were content withth the status are stroronger than any time since e late 1990's. donald trump will be a tough president to be. if almlmost anybody else e weree incomiming presisident of the ud states right now, scott walker, hillary clclinton, t that person would be cruising to an easy reelection. in the facee of the extraordinay difficulty of defeating a dangngerous president at a timef prosperity, you have to choose wisely. bernie sanders, appealining as e ought the e hard

race. the fact that he has outpererformed in vermont is -- congratulations, but vermont is not america. this election will be decided in places like north carolina, maybe in places like michigan with a 15% black population. it is going to be decided in places where most people are feeling betttter about the world than they felt in 2016. amy: is their candidate you prefer? >> it is not my house and i am not going to rearrange the furniture. sanders seems the one most vuvulnerablele. ththere's somemething about his campaign. because they have never taken a role hard engine a campaign, they d don't seem m to understad what donald trump is preparing for them. they don't seem to have a strarategy, for example, for winning the senate, which is going to be so important for putting the punishment on

republican party and a penalty on donald trump. it is not just that bernie sanders can be represented as wanting to take away health care for people, the people are more likely to say i am happy with my health care than any time since the 1990's, not just rearranging stock ownership so people can awayhe's taking money, they have never heard about it because his democratic opponents have never challenged him on those issues. juan: bhaskar sunkara, i want to ask about the issue of the senate. even if bernie sanders were to win the nomination and the presidency, he would still have to deal with congress s to get most of his agenda done. there are some who say not only will there be the possibility democrats will not control the senate, but even the democrats in the house majority and in the senate may not support some of the democrats some of them a not support bernie sanders platform. >> this is one of the dilemmas

of our political system. the fact we will have a divided government for most of our lives and presidents are not going to be able to do a lot. obama, the first couple of years it was such a missed opportunity for that reason. thethe bully pulpit of presidency, sanders will be able to do a lot. i think he has shown an ability to work with others that he doesn't agree with. of sanders framing as this wild radical who can't work with institutions belies the fact he has had quite the successful time in the congress. he has managed to be the chair of the veterans affairs committee, managed to deliver benefits for the veterans and their families to working with republicans, even. he supported thing like the public option. this is not a figure that is a complete unknown. he is keen to play this up. if you notice his interaction with joe biden during the presidential debates, i'm sure they get along, maybe friends,

but i've never heard of them being friends before 2016. it is much more likely he showing democratic party voters, showing the american people that he knows these people, he is not an unknown. frum is think what mr. missing is 46% of americans are going to vote for their partisan affiliation regardless. the democratic party in addition, that means 5% to 6%. particularly, they need to do well in dates in the upper midwest and elsewhere. you're right that vermont is n t representative of america, but neither is ohio and michchigan d these other states.. in some parts of vermont, it really resembles some of these rural parts of america, sanders has over performed consistently. he is a person with a d-rating from the nra but positive for his control agenda from rural

for much gun owners. i think that conversation might lead him to be competitive elsewhere. their other pathways to victory. he will probably fair a bit more plusy with $100,000 families, middle-class families in florida, for instance. maybe florida is more in a with biden. i think our multiple pathways for different democratic candididates, but i think sandes is a very clear one. amy: david frum, your response? >> i would in ththe sanders messagage is he is going to do a great job, he says, of mobilizing the last remains of the old white industrial l workg class in the areas where the old white industrial class was strong. maybe that is true, maybe it isn't. he might take a point or two away possibly. thewhile, he e will fail at two most urgent job study democraticic nominee for presidt has. the first is to mobilize black

american voters. black a american turnout reached an all-time histotoric peak in 2012. the only election history that black p people wewe more l lely to tururnout than white peoplele. michigan d depends on adding blk turnout more to wherere it was n 2012 wasn't north cacarolina depends on black turnout. bernie sanders has had real trouble connectiting with blackk voters.. politics is hard. it is hard to do the t test reassuredd the kind of limit, te educated women for manany different ethnic grounds in suburbs delivered in 2016. out george h.w. bush's former congressional district that was republican until 2018 went democratic in 2018. do gingrich -- newt gingrich went democratic.

the district just south of potomac that has been repubublin for 60 of the papast 66 y yearsh democrcrats in 2018. that was all done by women candidate apappealing to womenen votersrs. sanders is goioing to have real trouble connecting with those women, especially after donald trump represents sanders own personal history in a way that he is going to do. juan: when you say the way he is going to do. what is your sense of what that attack will look like? you said the sanders people have no idea what is coming at them if the candididate becomes a nominee. >> bernie sandnders was a create in the 1960's and 1970's, time of sexual liberation. he wrote on that subject in ways that arere very much not the ste now. and ththe bernie sanders opepern has beenen a very mamale-dominad operation. apologyw bernieie sanders' in h his operation 2016. bernie sanders has gotten himself a at deckers pointe with

hillary clinton. ththere is a video o of hillaray clinton d denouncing bernie sanders not from 2016, but from a c couple of weeks agogo. donald trump is going to play that clip over and over again. you're going to think hillary clininton is donald trump''s running mate. if you think that is amomoral ad unprincipled, you don't know donald trump. he is capable of doing that. he is running an anti-nepotism campaign against joe biden. congressman mark meadows of north carolina said "bernie sanders followers are more of a concern to me than anybody else. they have a passion and it with a tap and did what donald trump tapped into but they do it on the left. it is an antiestablishment. we want to mix things up kind of environment. if i had to pick one person i am most concerned about, it would be bernie sanders." let me put that to bhaskar sunkara. >> i certainly agree just because if the race comes out to

turnout, it will come down to enthusiasm. i would dispute some of those numbers about sandeders and blak voters. thek voters tend to like democrcratic field as a whole. older black voters are most familiar with biden, so they're going to vote provide most likely. younger black voters are most familiar or most like sanders, so they will vote for sanders. there is no doubt there will be some turnout. the problem with turnout in 2016 wasn't black voters. black voter turnout dropped from historic highs in 2008, 2012 with the support for the barack obama presidency. to more normal levels. what you would expect. the problem was latino turnout come a group that sanders is particularly strong in has been a lot of effort, millions of dollars into filing will, even in states like iowa, which latino but was only 5%, 6% of the voter or less. i think this will translate very well.

with the women question, it is absurd to think donald trump given his record, given his intense saw janine, would be able to credibly run i in a campaign accusing sanders of sexism. that was the weakest part of mr. fum's piece and it makes no sense to me. amy: we're going to go to break and come back to this debate. david, can respond on the others of this break. ,e are speaking with david frum author of "trumpocracy: the corruption of the american republic." and bhaskar sunkara, author of "the socialist manifesto: the case for radical politics in an era of extreme inequality." ♪ [music break]

amy: this is democracy now!, dedemocracynow.org, the wawar ad peace report. i'm amy goodman with juan gonzalez. our guests in this debate of whether bernie sanders can win is david frum, staff writer at the atlantic and the author of "trumpocracy: the corruption of the american republic." and bhaskar sunkara, founding editor and publisher of jacobin, and the author of "the socialist manifesto: the case for radical politics in an era of extreme inequality." before theirrum, break, you wanted d to chime inn the response to our guest's statement. go ahead. >> when mark meadows and people like that, hugh hewitt on msnbc, people run the t trump cap say bernie sanders is the candidate they fear most. i will give you a couple of possibilities.s. one is they are fooling with you. they are tryrying to build up somebody who they think isis the most vulnerable. the second possibility is maybe the r fulling themselves and don't underststand how dodonald trump won in 2016.

there is a myth in the donald ro this t titled waveve of enthusiaiasm into thee oval o office. none o of that is trtrue. between 2000-2016, there were five presidents r reluctance. 10 people rann for president. of those 10, donald trump ran second worst i in terms of thehe popular r vote. the only pererson to do o worsen donald trumpmp between 2000-2026 was jojohn mccain, who represend the incumbent party after a war that had gone badly and the worst financiaial downturn since the 1930's. he lost toto donald trump i onla fraction of a point. donald trump got lesess than jon kerry, less than al gore. less thahan mitt romney. he was a very weak candidate. houseked into the whwhite . is -- was so weak

come he came up wi a a story about how he won. it is not the truth. maybe some of his supporters belilieve it maybe they don't, t the advice they are giving is really wrorong. ththe a advice of the idea you'e going to win a presidedency in e face of -- and a time of extraordinary prosperity by mobibilizing people who o are wy attatached to the political prprocess and kind of offending the people who are regularly attachched to the p political process, that is dgegerous. ,hen you look at black voters black k women vote m more predictably than black memen and older black people but more prededictably than youounger blk people. oldeder black wowomen, that is e group you haveve to get to thehe polls fifirst. you worry about everybody, but youu focusus first on the e peoe most likely to show up. the sanders campaign representns a giant on the proposisition tht they can bring to the polls a whole nenew type of vovoter. that iss generally in america nt a good bet and especially not a good bet when times are pretty good. amy: i want to turn to a "new york times" piece that talks

about bernie sanders and the communities of color around the united states. his says in a cnn survey, nonwhite voters were in fact more likely to say they would be enthusiastic or at least satisfied with mr. sanders as our nominee, 82%, then does have the same a biden, 74%. steve phillips, the founder of democracy and color and advocacy group focused on race and politics had mr. sanders had room to grow with voters of color whose votes are habitually taken for granted by democratic candidates. but he emphasized he will need to earn a. he said he is closer to the mark and others are in terms of expanding the electorate and bringing new voters in. he said, referring to center severed to engage first time efforts, a cornerstone of his campaign, said he could still do more. bhaskar sunkara, if you could respond to that and more? >> i would say unfortunately people of color have been voting for even bad democrats and will stay voting for a by democrats when the alternative is essentially white nationalism in

the white house. the real question is, who are the regular voters, the people were maybe not first time voters, but rarely come out and need to be excited by a candidate? i think this is where sanders can really increase turnout around younger voters. i think we underestimate the orent to which mr. frum myself to be the democratic nominee and we will get 45%, 46% of the vote. the question is, how do you get these other 5%? there are many pathways to get this 5%. i think sanders has one. i think joe biden probably has one as well. i'm not saying sanders is the only candidate, but i am saying he is not uniquely unelectable. if anything, has certain demographic examples judging by his history. i think americans are less hung up on these ideological facts of sanders description of himself as a democratic-socialist

because he is been able to successfully define it as just fdr, welfare state, europe, and he has been establishing this line for five years. he has known how to just put it out there and leave it be. if anything, i would argue that certain democrats, like elizabeth warren, might be more prone to redbaiting if only because trump will call just about anyone a socialist. trump called barack obama and obamacare socialist plot. he would do this for any democratic candidate. it isn't that i don't think the actual democratic-socialist to can define it in terms of it doesn't scare people is worse off at fending off this attack compared to democrats that might say, yeah, i'm a capitalist and not a socialist. juan: but you also made the observations and some of your writing in terms of elizabeth warren and bernie sanders that

sanders is more of a structuralist. he sees structural change, whereas elizabeth warren only six reforms -- six reforms in the inequities and abuses of hapless reforms. what about the structural question that elizabeth warren represents and being potentially the first woman president in the same way that barack obama, who was a centrist democrat for the most part, represented the aspirations finally of the african-american community to have full democracy in america and equal representation? what is your sense of the issue of motivating more and more women to participate in the election if she were the candidate? >> i think of elizabeth warren where the candidate, i certainly would support her and would vote for her and i think that would be one tactic, one way to get to the white house. i think we often on the left describe black and brown people and women as some sort of representsegory that

-- resist this authoritarian republican party. women votedf white for donald trump in 2016. obviously, there's a lot of work to be done. on the russian of the structural changes that sanders offers, i think it is worth noting that sanders doesn't even support some things i support like poor packing, which is one of -- supported by many democratic candidates. he doesn't support even abolishing the filibuster. i think he has been very careful to frame his arguments and to focus on his key issues. i think medicare for all, jobs -- there's a certain repetition to sanders and that reputation i think will serve him well. amy: david frum, you are saying there should be a more centrist candidate, that you hate trump and you want to see him beaten. well, haven't the democrats brought as a string of centrist candidates? you have al gore.

you have john kerry. you u have hillary clilinton. they all lost.t. >> thehey all got a bigger share of the popular vote than donald trump did. they were pretty successful candidates. one ofof the things that is a challenge for me is most democrcrs don't see the world the way ii do, butut i think t t is also a challenge for bernie sanders. mostst americansns don't see the worlrld you do. you have to bebear that in mind. let me givive you one e example. in 1980, bernie sanders pupu the french party he then belonged to to join another one, socialistt workers party. i don't know why he joined. the time he joined, the socialist worker partyty may issueue, was opposing a american military action t to rescue the american hostages held in iran. they denounced the american hostages as cia spies. bernie sanders did not do that, but how is that going to look at a time when the united states and iran are apparently headed toward greater confrontation

when president trump thatt issu? if it comes down from me to a choice between bernie sanders and donald trump, i will make the gesture protest. i will vote for anybody j just about, certainly anybody on the field, but i understand i will be making a gesture. memeanwhile, milillions of amers whom the choicee is show up or o shshow up. yoyou only get them to show up when you talk to them in meaningful ways with the person who is relevanant to them. areremember most people different from you and what moves you is not necessarily what moves were fellow citizens. cook's first of all, that is patently untrue. sanders was never a member of the socialist workers party stuff he was a member of the liberty union party and early 1960's. he was a member of the socialist party of america, the party with very american roots. i think maybe what is being distorted here were being referenced is the fact sanders

served as an elected or for different minor party candidates to let himim to get on the ball. was more of a statement of democracy that -- i think we should all applaud, even if it opens him to this kind of attack. and to the question of sanders being portrayed as anti-american, i think if you look at what the american people think about foreign wars come about the blood and treasure that has been spent on these endless foreign wars, i think you'll find that sanders is in the american mainstream -- far more than the dp policy establishment is. amy: we have to leave it there but i want to thank you both for being with us. david frum is a staff writer at the atlantic and the author of "trumpocracy: the corruption of the american republic." and bhaskar sunkara is the founding editor and publisher of jacobin, and the author of "the socialist manifesto: the case for radical politics in an era of extreme inequality." tomorrow we hope to be bringing you the results of the iowa caucus.

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