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tv   BBC News The Context  PBS  April 12, 2024 5:00pm-5:31pm PDT

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pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news" >> hello, i'm lucy greg. >> it comes from two u.s. officials, iran is preparing a strike against israel that would use 100 drones, dozens of missiles and ballistic missiles as well. >> we are watching this closely. we deem the threat to be credible. >> most of them shrugged their shoulders. there was a sort of resignation. there wasn't sense of heightened
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concern or imminent threat. ♪ lucy: u.s. officials worn iran could launch a major attack on israel in retaliation for last week's airstrike. we look at the implications for theegion. sports news and glasgow offering to host the commonwealth games if no other host can be found for '26 after singapore joining malaysia saying they would not bid for it. the brightest of all time. scientists worked out what caused of the most brilliant burst of light ever recorded but it has thrown up other
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questions. like, where do heavy elements like gold come from? u.s. officials have warned iran could launch an attack on israel soon. this follows an airstrike in syria last week on an iranian diplomatic compound in damascus. u.s. officials say it could involve 100 drones and dozens of missiles. washington says it is taking the threat seriously. >> we are watching this closely. we deem the potential threat to be real. we are watching as closely as we can. right now our focus is conversation with israeli counterparts, making sure they have what they need and are able to defend themselves.
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as i think you know, clearly, it would be imprudent if we didn't, look at our own posture in the region to make sure we are prepared. lucy: hezbollah in lebanon said it has fired dozens of rockets at artillery positions in north israel, in response to pvious israeli strikes in southern villages. israel has identified 40 launches, some of which were intercepted. james, for people wondering whether these attacks from hezbollah are retaliation by proxy -- how do they compare to what hezbollah has been doing daily for the last few months? reporter: there's been a regular
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exchange of fire between hezbollah in lebanon and israeli forces in north israel. hezbollah launched the attack this evening. different accounts and numbers. many dozens. hezbollah was clear in the statement saying this was in response to israeli attacks on some of their positions earlier. at the moment, no one has said there is any link between this and any potential iranian response to the attack on damascus 12 days ago that destroyed the uranian consulate building in the capital of syria. the only possible connection some have drawn is it is possible, this is speculation, hezbollah are trying to exhaust some of israel's misse
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defenses, because the iron dome system israel has to defend itself against missiles is essentially one missile israel has to fire into the sky to destroy the incoming missile. it has a finite amount of stock. therefore it is possible hezbollah, at the behest of iran, is trying to exhaust some of those but that is speculation. lucy: the white house has been talking about a real and threat from iran, attacking inside israel. talk us through, i mentioned cbs has been speaking to u.s. officials about what this attack could entail. talk us through what they've been saying. reporter: recent days, there has been a steady drumbeat from the americans about the possible threat. the president says it was imminent.
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some officials say the attack could come today for could involve hundreds of missiles/drones. on the record, national security spokesman saying the at is credible, real. but do we think these are accurate predictions of the future? they may be. we don't know. they could be part of an american attempt to deter iran, to try and minimize the response by being as public as they can about the potential threat. they could be an attempt by the americans to shape opinion so alternately when iran, if it makes a response, is perhaps seen as less escalatory compared to a multiple missile attack the american officials have been talking about. if iran was to attack on that
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scale, that would be huge escalation and it would prompt a robust response from israel. the fear officials have across the piece is if that were to happen, there would be a full-scale regional war. many want to avoid that. lucy: thanks very much. james walsh at the massachusetts institute of tech, security studies program. hello and thanks for joining. president biden says he is expecting an iranian attack on israel sooner rather than later. what do you think about what america is doing now? officials have been briefing on the scale of the attack. what is the message the u.s. is trying to get out tomorrow -- trying to get out? >> the u.s. is moving assets.
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[no audio] [no audio] they talk a mean game but they haven't had direct interactions. [indiscernible] in some ways it is not in iran's interest to respond in a way that provokes a wider war on them. lucy: needs to be seen to be
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doing something, doesn't it, to appease people at home? >> this is the goldilocks problem. it has to be significant enough to save face. they were just attack. deterrence works on the principle if you attack me, i respond. it doesn't say when you are going to respond. what do we know about the supreme leader? he is a cautious calculator. reluctant to take what he thinks as bait to goad him into a broader conflict. he feels compelled to respond. the options aren't great. if you make it proportionate, iran would go after another embassy, israeli embassy, but those are in countries that make those operations more difficult. we are in expecting -- we are expecting an attack. there will be a response at some
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point. it may happen in the next 48 hours. this may be away for iran to cause anxiety, then strike later. lucy: we hear about how sophisticated israel's defense systems are. if it was on the scale u.s. officials assume it could be, how able is it to defend that attack? >> is able to do more force projection than iran. iran doesn't have much of an air force. it has missiles. it is not as powerful as israel. israel's military is more sophisticated, more endowed. that is why iran has cultivated a relationship with hezbollah. it's one of the primary ways it is trying to deter israel. it doesn't have the power to reach israel. they don't share a border. they are far away.
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lebanon is on theorder and it has missiles and rockets. there is a fear, in uses them as a way to retaliate. hezbollah has made clear this is for iran to take care of on its own. iran is backed into a corner. the doesn't want toet itself be continue to be attacked but it fears a response may give israel the opportunity to change the war. lucy: there are diplomatic efforts to try and calm the situation. why do you thinksrael launched this attack in syria? it's a complicated one. >> i will answer briefly. it's the most important question. did israel launch an escalatory attack because they thought they could get away with it?
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crisis. iran doesn't want to fight. so we try this and get away with it when we normally couldn't? or are we trying to provoke iran because we are trying to change this war from israel versus gaza, with the u.s. getting uncomfortable, for israel versus iran, bringing the politics closer. that would be huge. that's the question. what was the israeli intention? to get away with something or provoke? we won't knowing tell iran response -- we won't know until israel responds to whatever iran does next. lucy: thanks very much. >> thank you. lucy: this week, the foreign secretary said the u.k. will not block arms sales to israel.
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pressure on the government continues, with critics saying exports could make britain explicit in breaches of humanitarian law. ross atkins explains. reporter: laura cameron gave an update on arms sales to israel. >> in line with our international partners, so far no like-minded countries have taken the decision to suspend existing licenses to israel. reporter: it's based on legal advice, which hasn't been published. the shadow foreign secretary says in this case, it should be. it denies targeting civilians but israel has killed thousands of them. it has done so in part with weapons from the west. germany accounts for over 29%.
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in 2022, u.k. provided 0.02% of israel's military imports. the u.k. is a longtime ally. if sales stopped, that would be a diplomatic blow to israel. that hasn't happened for now. whether that may change depends on the u.k.'s own rules. they say the government should not grant a license if it determines a clear risk the items might be used to commit or facilitate a violation of humanitarian law. to judge this, the government receives legal advice. >> this is a formal process. this isn't a political decision. there is a technical, quasijudicial process. reporter: that led to this decision. >> latest assessment leaves our position on export licenses unchanged, consistent with the advice we received and as ever
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we will keep the position under review. reporter: days before, a different analysis was shared. 750 lawyers and academics signed an open letter to rishi sunak. it stated they fell short of the obligations of international law. >> the framework of international law governing war dictates the fact you have been provoked, attack however outrageously, does not mean to say you can do whatever you like. doesn't mean to say you can indiscriminately slaughter innocent civilians and children. it doesn't mean to say you can attack aid convoys. reporter: labour has raised concerns as well, saying the government must suspend sales of
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arms. the government defends its position but the pressure is growing and that pressure increased with israel's recent killing of seven aid workers in gaza, including three britons. that played into broader concerns. >> the israelis have to learn the hard lessons. it is clear they have not been giving priority to the protection of civilians, special protection of humanitarian workers, medical workers, international humanitarian law requires. reporter: israel denies this. this isn't only about the law. israel's actions in gaza are led by a military the u.k. is helping to arm. whether legal or not, that's a political choice as well. lucy: this is bbc news. ♪
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lucy: police are investigating claims labour's deputy leader may have broken regulatory law. it follows a complaint over whether or not she paid the collect level of tax on the sale of her council house in 2015. she denies wrongdoing. laila matthew joins us from westminster. reporter: it's a complicated tale. this first surfaced weeks ago in an unauthorized biography of the deputy leve -- of the deputy leader of labour. they centered around whether she lived in the house she said she
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did, her primary residence between 2007-2015, when she sold it. she was registered on the roll to vote at that address. james daley said accounts from neighbors at the time say she wasn't living there, that she was instead living with her then husband who had another property registered in his name. it's a complex tale. the question is whether the address she gave was correct. there are separate claims about whether she paid requisite tax when she sold the property in '15. she says she took legal advice and tax advice and she doesn't think she owes any tax.
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labour officials have seen that advice and are satisfied, certainly the leader is standing by her. she has said she welcomes the investigation as an opportunity toraw a line under this matter. she says if she is found to have committed an offense, she will do the right thing and step down, and her words. she has raised the stakes but it sounds likshe is confident that she is not guilty of any wrongdoing. police were initially asked to look at this by james daley. they decided not to and he complained, saying they hadn't taken into account enough information. they reassessed and said they will look into whether offenses were committed. there will be some way for this to run. she is sounding confident she
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did not commit any criminal offense. lucy: thanks. belgium is investigating russian attempts to influence the outcome of the european elections in june. the prime minister said the kremlin bribed some mps to spread propaganda and disinformation to get more pro-russian politicians elected. some have been given money, from sevel countries. he stressed that eu wide action was needed to counter the interference. president zelenskyy has warned his ra -- has warned that his country is running out of military supplies. russia has intensified its air campaign against ukraine, hammering the energy structure and urban areas.
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a major power plant was destroyed. these are images from harkiv, under intense bombardment in the past few days. let's be to a member of the ukrainian parliament. talk about how vulnerable energy infrastructure is. yesterday there were these attacks on a plant. it is vulnerable? >> it is, unless youave anti-air missiles. unfortunately, we are desperately running out of them. the russian military technologies are not far from iran and north korea. u.s.-based missiles shoot them down effectively. israel may soon be under attack from iranian drones. 3000 iranian drones were fired
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at ukraine energy grid since the beginning of 2024. lucy: president zelenskyy pleading countries to help on the air defense. you are in contact with people on the front line. what are they telling you th need? >> simple. they need ways and means to shoot back. morale drops fast when you are under fire and cannot respond. a brief estimate, previously our soldiers were allowed to fire 60 shells per artillery gun per day. now it is down to five per day and sometimes zero. russia has ramped up production and received 3 million artillery shots from north korea, according to south korean defense ministry. lucy: new legislation is aimed at helping mobilize troops. how are people feeling about
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that? are you expecting the numbers to increase soon? >> people are willing to fight but as long as they know they have ways and means to respond. unfortunately usaid has been locked for six months now, which results in ukrainian deaths which could have been avoided. we have to strengthen our rules, not necessarily for always to go into the fight, but for one person shooting, there needs to be six people servicing him, for him to have that gear, or fuel, etc. unfortunately, we had to strengthen the conscription rules to get more conscripts. lucy: you have been in the u.s. campaigning to get movement on this aid package. what was the mood? >> we are always received but
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vast majority of u.s. public, according to polls, nearly all the politicians we meet, support the aid of ukraine but unfortunately, for whatever reasons, it's been deadlocked for six months and unfortunately that has resulted in real casualties. the majority of republican and democratic parties support further aid to ukraine. lucy: thank you for talking to us. >> thank you. lucy: roberto cavalli has died at 83. he was known for flamboyant patterns and innovative printing techniques. he died at home in florence after a long illness. he rose to prominence in the 1970's. his styles were still favored years on by later generations of
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celebrities from kim kardashian to jennifer lopez. don't go away. stay announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. bdo. accountants and advisors. cunard is a proud supporter of public television. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... woman: a successful business owner sells his company and restores his father's historic jazz club with his son.

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