caucus day. iowans cast the first ballots in campaign 2012 and mitt romney says he will be the winner. a warning from iran, tough talk to the united states. keep your aircraft carrier out of the persian gulf or else. and arson arrest. the german man believed to be connected to the rash of fires in the los angeles area is taken into custody. captioning funded by cbs and good morning, everybody. good to be with you. i'm terrell brown. campaign 2012 officially kicks off tonight with the iowa caucuses. all eyes are on republicans casting their vote for the gop presidential nominee. it's a race that had a new front-runner every few weeks or so, but mitt romney now claims he'll win this one. the race certainly by no means a done deal.

nearly half the voters say they haven't settled on a candidate. susan mcginnis gets us started this morning from des moines. susan, good morning to you. >> reporter: hi, good morning, terrell. it's that huge number of undecided voters that's making it a question mark. months of campaigning, so many events, and tonight we find out who iowa wants. at a packed rally in iowa mitt romney urged supporters to turn out in full force at tonight's caucuses. >> with your help we're going to go on to do whatever it takes. let's get the nomination. let's become the next president of the united states. >> reporter: the former massachusetts governor is predicting he'll win the critical contest and will clinch the republican nomination early. the latest polls show romney has a slight lead over ron paul. >> ron paul. ron paul. >> the enthusiasm is growing by leaps and bounds. >> reporter: but it's rick santorum who could pull off an upset.

the former pennsylvania senator is in third place after a surprising surge. >> thank you so much. >> reporter: he greeted voters at five separate stops on monday, but the crowds grew larger at each event. >> trust what you have seen, what you have heard. trust the interactions you had with the candidates. >> reporter: for months candidates have been trying to win over republicans here in iowa, and they have spent more than $13 million on tv ads. still, more than 40% of voters here remain undecided. >> really what i think it comes down to we want to find the best person with the best credentials that can beat president obama. >> thank you. >> reporter: michele bachmann and rick perry are hoping to sway voters their way. as for one-time front-runner, newt gingrich -- >> i don't think i'm going to win. >> reporter: he appeared to throw in the towel monday only to take it back. >> we may pull off one of the great upsets in the history of the iowa caucuses. >> reporter: the former house speaker is hoping for a big enough comeback to keep him in the race.

gingrich got some push back for talking about not winning. now he's talking about an upset. got to keep things positive, right? three to four candidates could make it out of iowa and a lot of it depends how far they go from there on how much money they have, how much momentum they have coming out of iowa. it could be, terrell, we see this multicandidate race go on for some time. >> we look forward to new hampshire. susan mcgiven is in des moines, thank you so much. the big question, why so much attention on the iowa caucuses? are they really that important? that's certainly a question. the past five elections with no republican incumbent, only two winners in iowa have gone on to capture the gop nomination. george w. bush in 2000 and bob dole in 1996. as we reported, rick santorum has made up considerable ground in iowa. it came at a cost, though. santorum has used up much of his money in that one state alone. scott pelley asked if it was a do or die campaign. we have to do well. i don't think there's any question. we have to do well.

i've said from the beginning that there's really three primaries now and ron paul has his own primary and gingrich and romney are sort of fighting for the establishment primary and then perry, bachmann and myself trying to be the conservative alternative. >> reporter: even if you do well here, even if you win or come in second, do you have the legs to go the second round, the third round, the fourth round? you're running on a shoestring. >> well, we're running on -- no, shoestring is an insult to shoestrings. we've done it the old-fashioned way, and it's had quite an appeal being the incumbent not afraid to answer the questions, not afraid to make themselves available to the people, in front of the cameras, and be able to handle those questions. we've been able to raise more money here in the last -- over the holiday weekend, we've been able to raise more money than we raised in the previous couple of months. and that's an encouragement to us and we can start building out our team a little bit as we look to other states. >> reporter: but before he looks

to other states, there is controversy for santorum in iowa. it came after a question yesterday in sioux city. santorum started talking about welfare and brought race into his answer. >> i don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money. i want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money, provide for themselves and their families. >> reporter: you said that you don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money. why did you say that? >> i've seen that quote, i haven't seen the context in which that was made. yesterday i talked, for example, about a movie called -- what was it? it was about black children. and so i don't know whether it was in response and i was talking after, talking about that. so let me just say, no matter what, i want to make every life better. i think if you look at what i've been saying, i've been pretty clear about my concern for dependency in this country and concern for people not being more dependent on government,

whatever their race or ethnicity is. >> cbs news will have the latest on the iowa caucuses beginning this morning on "the early show" and tonight on the "cbs evening news" and updates on cbs. the new hampshire primary is one week from today. most polls there show mitt romney with the commanding lead a poll released yesterday by "the new hampshire journal" has romney with a 20-point lead over his closest competitor, ron paul. and there may not be a lot of wiggle room. the polls show just 1% of new hampshire voters are undecided. iran's army chief is warning the united states don't send pthe persian gulf.ier back to a u.s. carrier left the gulf while iran conducted military exercises. the army chief says if the ship returns, iran will take action. the iranian military says it successfully tested long and medium range missiles. the days of the u.s. being able to wage two sustained ground wars at the same time may be coming to an end. "the new york times" reports defense secretary leon panetta will outline plans this week for making the u.s. military smaller.

the pentagon budget could be cut by at least $450 billion over the next ten years. syria's bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters has not let up even with independent observers from the arab league. amateur video shows protesters demanded observers to stop the violence. the arab league says it has gotten some concessions from the syrian government, but it reportedly concedes that it has failed to stop the bloodshed in the ten-month-long uprising. an armed iraq war veteran suspected of killing a park ranger is dead this morning. a massive search turned up the body of benjamin barnes in mt. rainier national park in washington state. it is believed he died in the cold hiding from authorities. randall pinkston reports. >> reporter: the man hunt for suspected gunman benjamin barnes is over. authorities at mt. rainier found his dead body in a creek. >> a number of our tactical search teams were able to reach the body and confirm that it was benjamin colton barnes. >> reporter: the 24-year-old was discovered in a cold, snow

filled section of the national park wearing jeans and a t-shirt. >> the condition he was in and the clothing he had on him, he was not equipped to make it a night or two in the winter. >> reporter: officers had been scouring the area for the iraq war veteran who may have suffered from posttraumatic stress disorder. authorities say barnes shot and killed park ranger and mother of two margaret anderson early sunday morning when she tried to stop him from entering the park. >> there's nothing she could have done. that guy had soe high-powered weapons. nobody was going to win that gunfight. >> reporter: officers exchanged fire with barnes but he escaped into the woods on foot. they think barnes came to the national park to hide out after a new year's eve shooting near seattle. he was wanted for questioning in a house party shooting that left four people wounded. more than 200 officers were involved in the search. authorities also recovered the weapons they believe were used in the shooting. randall pinkston, cbs news. take a quick break. up next, an arrest in the los angeles arson spree. how police found the suspect who

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when you sweeten with splenda®. ♪ new york city police are searching for a suspect in a series of fire bombings. the attacks happened in four places, possibly including one more in a new york suburb. one of the targets was a mosque. there were no reported injuries. fires are being investigated as hate crimes. a man suspected in a series of arson fires in the los angeles area is under arrest. as edward lawrence reports, the arrest was the result of a lot of police work. >> reporter: los angeles area firefighters and police officers gave a round of applause to a rookie reserve sheriff's deputy they are calling a hero. shervin lalezary, a full-time attorney who makes a dollar a year as a part-time deputy pulled over a minivan which matched the description of a vehicle police were looking for. >> a dollar a year, i'm going to give him the best dinner anywhere on the sunset strip for the extraordinary work he did this weekend.

>> reporter: two police officers arrived after lalezary made his traffic stop and arrested harry burkhart. he faces one count of arson. but investigators say more charges will be filed after more than 50 suspicious car fires were set in less than a week. >> these were serious, potentially deadly crimes that needlessly endangered thousands of innocent lives. >> reporter: police released surveillance video to the public sunday. that video led to tips that the man in the footage was burkhart. >> we are very confident in this arrest, but we have a long way to go. >> reporter: most of the fires were set in car ports or garages next to apartment complexes. police will not say how the fires were started or what evidence was collected at the crime scenes. juan lopez says he found some sort of device under his car but it failed to ignite. >> when i came over here, i see the little container right there under the car. >> reporter: damage estimates are nearly $3 million, but no one was killed in the fires. edward lawrence for cbs news, west hollywood.

"cbs moneywatch" time now on a tuesday. back to business on wall street after a break to celebrate the new year. ashley morrison is back with us, too. she has that and more. ashley, good morning. and good morning to you, too, terrell. overseas investors are starting the year with a positive outlook. in asia hong kong's hang seng added more than 2%. trading on japan's nikkei will resume after an extended new year's holiday. today will be the first day of trading on wall street for the new year. on friday the market finished 2011 on a down note. the dow lost 69 points while the nasdaq was off eight. this week we will get new data on the struggling housing market and the government will release the latest jobs report. u.s. carmakers are hoping the new year brings another solid year. the industry will report u.s. sales numbers tomorrow which grew in 2011. analysts are predicting sales will increase this year as well. that's not only good news for the u.s. auto industry, it's good for people looking for work. carmakers are expected to keep adding jobs in the coming year.

iran's recent military exercises have pushed the cost of oil up. the price of a barrel of crude in asia jumped to $101. traders are nervous about iran's missile test this week in the strait of hormuz. iran has threatened to shut down a critical passage in retaliation for stiff u.s.-backed economic sanctions. the nation's largest cigarette maker is tired of taking heat, so now it's launching a pr campaign. altrea group is launching a website to share information on tobacco related public policy issues such as smoking bans and cigarette taxes. the company says the website will allow smokers and tobacco users to have their voices heard. and it's going to cost more to run in the new york city marathon this year. entry fees are going up by about $60 per person. the increase is to offset the cost of security by the new york city police. more than 47,000 people ran in last year's race.

that's going to be my excuse again. i'm not going to run this year. >> you'd have to pay me to run in the marathon. >> i'm in awe of those who can do it, but i don't think i can. >> you'd have to drag me across the finish line. >> with me on your back. >> exactly. call 911, please. ashley morrison in new york, thank you very much. take a break. we'll have your weather forecast. and then in sports, hockey's winter classic comes down to one final shot. can boldly satisfy any craving. share an appetizer, then choose two chili's entrees, like our classic bacon burger or our famous slow-smoked baby back ribs. chili's $20 dinner for two. try bayer advanced aspirin. it has microparticles so it enters the bloodstream fast and rushes relief to the site of your tough pain. it's proven to relieve pain twice as fast as before. bayer advanced aspirin. twice as fast as before.

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here's a look at the weather. partly cloudy and 32 degrees in new york. windy and 58 in miami. partly cloudy and 24 in chicago. sunny and windy, 58 degrees in dallas. sunny and 81 degrees in los angeles. checking your national forecast. latest satellite picture shows storm clouds over the great lakes starting to thin out as snow showers taper in. there are storm clouds in the northwest producing a mix of rain and snow. skies clear across the south. later today warm air moves into the midwest bringing near record temperatures to northern plains. the southeast chilly temperatures. new york, pennsylvania, and ohio, lake effect snow showers. the northwest coast, rain. the cascades could get several inches of snow. in sports, big plays and a big score at the fiesta bowl. andrew luck got stanford out to an early lead. 53-yard td pass ty month ggomer. oklahoma state's

brandon weeden had three touchdowns but it all came down to this. stanford kicker jordan williamson missed a 35-yard field goal at the end of regulation for the win. quinn sharp had a 22-yard kick in overtime. oklahoma state gets the win. in pasadena the highest scoring rose bowl in history. oregon's deanthony thomas tied the game on this first quarter, 91-yard run. darren thomas touchdown pass put the ducks on top for good in the fourth quarter. oregon beat wisconsin, 45-38, for its first rose bowl victory since 1917. and abysmal in the penn state season. the nittany lions lost to houston. final score houston 30, penn state 14. in the nba miami is perfect no more. lebron james and the heat won five straight. joe johnson scored 21 points for the atlanta hawks. tracy mcgrady has a pair of big fourth quarter three-pointers. the hawks win it, 100-92. in philadelphia, nearly

50,000 hockey fans bundled up for the fifth annual winter classic. it is hockey outdoors. the rangers rally from a two goal deficit. brad richards scored the go-ahead goal early in the third period for new york. henrik lundquist stopped danny briere's penalty shot. the rangers win it 3-2 over the flyers. when we come back another look at the top stories and slick roads. plus whiteout conditions equal a traffic nightmare for dozens of motorists.

for a g-o-p candidate. how the presidential hopefuls are wooing the un- decided voters. plus, an arson suspect.. under arrest in los angeles. how his mother may have played a role in the rash of fires. and a california woman.. taking on honda. why this could be a landmark case. join us for cbs 5 early edition ... beginning at 4:30. "decision day... tonight's

on the "cbs morning news," a look at today's weather. big chill spreading across the eastern half of the nation that will even actually usually warm up florida. temperatures will range or drop into the teens, the 50s, from the great lakes to the gulf coast. lake effect snow will taper off in the northeast. the here is another look at the

top stories. mitt romney says he will win the iowa caucus. most polls indicate romney is locked in a tight race with rick santorum and ron paul, and nearly half the expected caucusgoers are yet to settle on a candidate. the man hunt is over for the iraq war veteran suspected of shooting a park ranger. the body of benjamin barnes was discovered in an icy creek. barnes was also wanted in another shooting near seattle. people in indiana are welcoming the new year with a major snowfall, 6 to 8 inches fell in parts of northern indiana. high winds have added to the weather woes. no major roads were closed. near cincinnati snow is blamed for a series of collisions on interstate 70. the most serious a 40-vehicle pileup which forced the highway to be shut down for several hours on monday. >> just looked over and saw tractor-trailers going sideways and vehicles just slamming into each other. i mean, there was nothing nobody could do. it was just like dominoes. >> minor injuries were reported. coming up, the caucus, a musical. a different take on iowa's presidential politics. i'm terrell brown.

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that's cold, man. announcer: play a role in ending hunger. visit feedingamerica.org/hunger and find your local food bank. the vacation's over. now it's back to work. president obama and the first family ended their ten-day trip to hawaii. today the president will host a web chat with supporters and, yep, you guessed it, iowa. much of the nation is still suffering from declining real estate prices brought on by economic bubble. iowa is enjoying a real estate boom. the price of farmland climbed from 17% from 2007 to 2010. barry peterson reports. >> reporter: welcome to dallas, iowa, population not quite 550. on a recent chilly morning, it seemed hatch the town was packed into the local community center. the occasion was a land auction. presiding, a man who calls himself the dirt dealer. >> when farmers make money, they buy one of two things usually --

iron or dirt. i sell both. >> reporter: for 30 years jeff obreck has been in the farm equipment and land business and business is booming. >> there's been no better time in our history to sell a farm than today. >> reporter: while real estate values continue to fall in much of america, values for farmland soared here 32% in 2011. the biggest gain ever. the upsurge is driven, the dirt dealer told us, by the perfect storm of low interest rates and the high price of corn thanks to strong exports and the increasing need for corn to make ethanol. the more productive the soil, the more it's worth. and at an average price of $6,700 an acre, it's worth a lot. >> this stuff is like black gold. black gold is what you're holding in your hand. it's not oil, it's dirt.

>> reporter: and you can get rich off of it. >> that's correct, if you want to sell it. >> reporter: sounds pretty good to me. >> well, if you own some, it sounds better. >> reporter: the olson family owned the 148 acres that was up for auction. they originally bought the farm for just over $13,000 in 1936. today they were hoping it would sell for well over a million. jeff obreck knew of three serious bidders. >> so the race is on. real simple. >> reporter: bidding was competitive, and the price quickly went north of $10,000 an acre. >> $10,600. >> reporter: the total sales price was more than $1.5 million. despite the chances at these riches, most farmers buy land for life and don't like to sell. state laws help keep speculators out of the market, and there are only so many acres of black gold in iowa. one more reason sky high prices probably won't see a sunset anytime soon. barry peterson, cbs news, iowa.

coming up on the "early" show, decision day in the high stakes iowa caucus. republicans cast their ballots in the party's first nominating contest. bob schieffer and norah o'donnell will host. also why the caucus is so important and how it works. all that and more on the "early show" this morning. i'm terrell brown. thank you and have a great day.

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