middlehurst with the it's polly middlehurst with the news . jacob thank you . good news. jacob thank you. good evening to you. our top story tonight on gb news and mi5 has increased the terrorism threat level in northern ireland from substantial to severe, meaning attack is highly likely and that comes roughly a year after britain lowered the threat level for northern ireland for the first time in more than a decade . deputy chief constable mark hamilton said this afternoon that the police service of northern ireland is working hard to meet the community, safer . to meet the community, safer. well prince harry says the royal family, without a doubt withheld information from him about phone hacking by news group newspapers. he made the claims in a witness statement submitted before his civil claim against the publisher of the daily mail associated newspapers . prince associated newspapers. prince harry is among a group of celebrities launching legal action against the publisher

accusing them of numerous breaches of privacy . associated breaches of privacy. associated newspapers denies all the allegations . newspapers denies all the allegations. in the united states. president joe biden has called on congress to pass an assault weapons ban . after assault weapons ban. after another school shooting this site, this time in tennessee, saying the country owes the families action, not just prayers for views . a warning you prayers for views. a warning you may find the following footage distressing. in the incident, six people, including three children, were killed in nashville on monday . police shot nashville on monday. police shot and killed 28 year old transgender attacker identified as audrey hale. nashville police say the attacker was able buy seven firearms legally , three of seven firearms legally, three of which were used in the shooting . now hear the former labour leader jeremy corbyn says . now hear the former labour leaderjeremy corbyn says has leader jeremy corbyn says has every intention of represent islington north. his constituency at the next general , adding that he won't be

intimate weighted into silence. that's after labour's national executive committee approved, sir keir starmer's motion to block mr. corbyn's standing as a labour mp. mr. corbyn was suspended from parliamentary party in 2020 over his reaction to a report into antisemitism within the labour party. he could still run as an in—depth rendent candidate . the education rendent candidate. the education secretary is urging teaching unions to accept the latest pay offer and their industrial action . the government is action. the government is offering a £1,000 one off payment as well as a four and a half percent pay rise for next yeah half percent pay rise for next year. but a national education union has recommended its members reject deal and instead hold further strikes. on april 227 and may the second. and lastly the snp leader, humza yousaf has now been officially selected as scotland's new first minister. the 37 year old is replacing nicola , who formally replacing nicola, who formally tendered her resignation to the

king earlier on today. after more than eight years in the role, it's understood kate forbes will leave the scottish government after rejecting a demotion from the new first minister. it means ms. forbes, who previously served as finance secretary, will return to hollyrood backbenches . you up to hollyrood backbenches. you up to date on tv online plus radio and on the tune in app with gb news the people's channel. let's get back now to jacob rees—mogg . back now to jacob rees—mogg. to paraphrase george orwell's road to wigan pier one sometimes get the impression that mere words human rights draw towards them with magnetic force . every them with magnetic force. every fruit juice drink a nudist sandal, wear a nature cure, quack and feminist. in england. we've seen oxfam decide that the engush we've seen oxfam decide that the english language isn't good enough and that they should

read. why write it.7 perhaps prefer russian. and now amnesty has decided that human rights are greater risk in the uk . and are greater risk in the uk. and if you look at their website, look at the front page of their website. it's all about what we get wrong and nothing about other countries . apparently the other countries. apparently the uk is becoming a negative force for human rights on the world stage . this is the most unjust stage. this is the most unjust terrible nonsense . england, terrible nonsense. england, great britain, the united kingdom through. hello and distinguished history has been an extraordinary force for human rights . how an extraordinary force for human rights. how many an extraordinary force for human rights . how many people know rights. how many people know that the normans, when they conquered , actually got rid of conquered, actually got rid of the slave trade .7 the the slave trade? the anglo—saxons had in 1215 with magna carta? we introduced the principle of trial by jury, the freedom , the church, the church freedom, the church, the church in england shall be free is the first opening clause of the magna carta , the act of talmage magna carta, the act of talmage in 1297. that means that taxation must be approved by

parliament. this is a quite extraordinary act in other countries. it's inconceivable that tax shouldn't be at the whim of the will of the. we make it parliament by consent of the nation. in 1297 and the act of tally is still the law of the land. habeas corpus . jumping land. habeas corpus. jumping forward a few hundred years. 1685 but habeas corpus was a confirmation of rights. the right that you could not be held unjust , right that you could not be held unjust, certainly without reference to a court . now, in reference to a court. now, in 1789, the french were still deaung 1789, the french were still dealing with the ability of the french to lock people up without any writ of habeas corpus, to get them free. 1688 we have the bill of rights , the bill of bill of rights, the bill of rights. that means speech in parliament is free. still free today. and we have freedom of the press from the of the licencing order in 1694. we have the opening up of the franchise in 1832. in 1867. we the founding country of human rights, it is said that england

is the mother of parliaments and this is continued throughout the 20th century where we have not only had our but we've spread them. globe play. and that's the crucial part . we decided what crucial part. we decided what our rights were very early on. we even develop a theory of them very early on. sirjohn very early on. sir john fortescue in the late 15th century sets out the key point that the king of england is king under the law, whereas the king of france is the law . and not of france is the law. and not only do we do this for our own country, but we spread it the world. we give it to our empire. look at, the american constitution, the freedoms in the american constitution, drawn from ours, an attempt to perfect the british constitution. we provide the rule of law, democracy , efficient democracy, efficient administration. we stop warring tribes. we have this extra ordinary imperial story that bfings ordinary imperial story that brings human rights to the world. that is our contribution . and indeed, it used to be.

amnesty's contribution, because that's what amnesty used to do before it decided to go in for this selfish basement. it seems to want open people glueing themselves to motorways and russian judges allegedly blocking all legislation . we all blocking all legislation. we all say amnesty if they'd like to defend themselves, they employ 2500 people. that's what your money is used for. large employment scheme of amnesty. not one of them to come on defend. why? they criticise the more than they criticise . is more than they criticise. is china the communist totalitarian chinese ? but of course i want to chinese? but of course i want to know what you all think. please get in touch . email me at get in touch. email me at mailmogg@gbnews.uk uk. but now i'm joined by human rights lawyer david hague. david thank for joining me. why do you think amnesty which started off in a way by challenge ing human rights abuses of much worse kind in totalitarian countries , not in totalitarian countries, not wishes to attack our own

democracy . good evening, jacob. democracy. good evening, jacob. and first first of all, i agree with an awful lot of what you said in terms of history of the uk in, in terms of the fact the uk in, in terms of the fact the uk effectively set human across the world and we've led way for so very long. i think that's perhaps one of the reasons why amnesty is obviously focusing and others and i think we spoke and others and i think we spoke a couple of weeks ago about the civicus monitor that also looked at human rights changes in the uk and that's one of the reasons that amnesty and other organisations are focusing on us. i think in terms amnesty and i think one of your guests when we talked about civicus a couple of weeks ago made a very good point. you've got to look at the organisations issue them, organisations, issue them, the people of those people in charge of those organisations benefits. organisations and the benefits. now you mentioned earlier on obviously china abusing human rights is not a headline that is not going to get attention for the annual report of the amnesty, whereas obviously saying that the uk and downgrading the uk and saying that bulldozing human rights

will do it, i think so. that's of the reasons why they why people are focusing on this . in people are focusing on this. in answer to your question . so this answer to your question. so this is essentially a publicity stunt by amnesty , but isn't that by amnesty, but isn't that really rather sad because what's going on to the wiggers and the persecution of cardinals in hong kongis persecution of cardinals in hong kong is really serious and that's what we should be focusing about . we should be focusing about. we should be holding other countries to that have terrible abuses of the burmese regime, wicked abuses of human rights . like with you , you human rights. like with you, you know, i agree with you. it is a pubuchy know, i agree with you. it is a publicity stunt in terms of focusing on the uk much as the civicus monitor wanted. but in terms of amnesty as a human rights lawyer, i believe is backed by a lot of facts into of the fact of changes to existing laws and proposed changes to laws and proposed changes to laws will reduce all human rights protections and that is not a good thing. and as you said earlier on in terms of our position, in terms of protecting

and promoting those for centuries , obviously the world centuries, obviously the world looks at us as a leader and if we start to draw but isn't our best. sorry to interrupt because we have got a lot of but isn't the best protection of our human rights democracy that people can vote. don't like vote. and if they don't like what government doing, what this government are doing, they new government they can put in a new government to something different. and that's than judicial that's a better than judicial human rights. well, absolutely. that you're absolutely . and that you're absolutely. and obviously, as we know , with some obviously, as we know, with some of the exceptions, that a conservative that is changing these laws was elected obviously with the with a different leader. so that's very very valid point. and i agree with that. i think the point is, though, that the changes that all made potentially pave all being made potentially pave way to get much worse way for things to get much worse with other governments, with other leaders or with other administrations. other leaders or with other administrations . and as you said administrations. and as you said earlier on, we set the that the history in terms human rights. so go dictators and so you now go dictators and despots the world looking despots around the world looking at us, looking at these headunes at us, looking at these headlines and thinking, well, if they're looking changing the they're looking at changing the laws, can't and think one

laws, why can't. and i think one of i wanted to talk of the points i wanted to talk about quickly in about is very quickly is in terms we're seeing is terms of what we're seeing is that a human rights that very much a human rights hypocrisy, think hypocrisy, i think. and i think that's definitely that's something i definitely agree was in the agree with. that was in the amnesty report, the way in which we are dealing with certain human . so, for human rights abuses. so, for example, countries in the middle where of look the other where we kind of look the other way because of financial interests and business deals and countries look countries where we don't look the must, we must the other way we must, we must get you back to discuss that further. another occasion, because very important because that's a very important debate. david i've debate. you so much david i've now got major typically debate. you so much david i've now got panel typically debate. you so much david i've now got panel i'llically debate. you so much david i've now got panel i'll socialist brilliant panel i'll socialist friend stephen pound and the historian david stokie . stephen, historian david stokie. stephen, come on your left . you can come on your left. you can defend it. i think a couple of things you started off with george orwell and one of his famous essays he's on a bus in letchworth going to the new town, sees a group of men town, and he sees a group of men wearing just wearing shorts. and he just immediately identifies them as co—operators said socially . co—operators and said socially. but then, of course, maybe from an don't forget an old etonian, but don't forget his first book, burmese days , his first book, burmese days, actually one of the most potent

and poignant sections of that describes a hanging which he was a member of the burma imperial police there. and he actually says in this story, why can't are rules apply to our subjects as they were at the time? so i think orwell, you know, despite that, the comment you made, which accurate, was actually, which is accurate, was actually, i in, rights. but i believe in, human rights. but i believe in, human rights. but i get a couple of i think let's get a couple of things straight. first of all, amnesty have made fools of themselves word themselves by using the word bulldozing. it's ridiculous. i would need to defend bulldozing. it's ridiculous. i would rights. need to defend bulldozing. it's ridiculous. i would rights. i need to defend bulldozing. it's ridiculous. i would rights. i thinkad to defend bulldozing. it's ridiculous. i would rights. i think any» defend human rights. i think any civilised country should a codification, basic of human codification, a basic of human rights that apply to all of us the problem is interpretation and the extension this kind of limitless extension. i'm all favour of human rights, but i'm not a huge of amnesty. perhaps high point of liberal england won't for human rights. best defended by the house of commons that really believed in them. and you see that in the nobody talks about human jacob do your history forgive me was completely phoney were not talking about human rights you were talking about polity equal rights you were talking about

the universal rights under common law life , liberty, common law life, liberty, property , freedom of speech, property, freedom of speech, freedom , the person. what has freedom, the person. what has happenedis freedom, the person. what has happened is that those notions have been and pollute the human rights we now tend to be directed against the individual or against the majority of individuals , rather than individuals, rather than defending the individual against the state. this is the that's happened with the takeover . the happened with the takeover. the united nations after 1945, particularly by the soviet union and its satellite ties. it deliberately used and you actually made a good point when you to know . no, no, no, no, no, you to know. no, no, no, no, no, no. this is really this is actually can we be serious ? yes, actually can we be serious? yes, it really is serious. actually can we be serious? yes, it really is serious . what has it really is serious. what has gone wrong is that we've replaced those universal rights, life, liberty and property with highly specific rights for the rights of the rights of women in certain circumstances , a right

certain circumstances, a right to abortion, a right to food. now, all of these very peculiar rights actually are to individuals . they're not individuals. they're not general. and moreover the right of a woman. and the right of a trans. as we are discuss offering are very likely to clash with each other. and the only way that this clashes can be arbitrated is by constant judicial . so instead universal judicial. so instead universal rights. we replace sexual rights in in place of rights that unite us. we've introduced rights that divide. and we've we're seeing this at the moment totally with the right to privacy , which is the right to privacy, which is fundamentally undermining the right to freedom of speech. and we see this being argued out in the courts actually today. the moment is i mean, as i berman put it, very, very when he said freedom for the wolf does not always mean freedom for the lab . that's the point. . and i think that's the point. you actually i know i'm you actually i mean, i know i'm going to get sacked for this, but i think stark has made a very important about the

but i think stark has made a very of|portant about the but i think stark has made a very of the tant about the but i think stark has made a very of the dogma about the but i think stark has made a very of the dogma , about the but i think stark has made a very of the dogma , the out the but i think stark has made a very of the dogma , the idea1e but i think stark has made a very of the dogma , the idea of sort of the dogma, the idea of sort of the dogma, the idea of sort of the dogma, the idea of sort of a universal rights of, you know, just basic don't kill each other. and you it from them. they're not life i mean, again, free media, civilisation is really important that we you know, we go back to locke the key figure in this. if you is locke and three basic liberties of life liberty and property everything is added onto and they are universal and they define you and membership of the political community you're not they're not group rights it's group rights that catastrophic and unfortunate and they're also the rights of members of , the the rights of members of, the political community, the north immigrant rights and amnesty is now become believer in the rights minorities against the majority. but amnesty is in huge problem at the moment because of the issue on abortion, which is costing me huge. but if actually look american look at the american constitution, you know, becky, whenever took tom whenever in 1776, they took tom paine man and they paine the rights of man and they

enshrined don't enshrined, you know, we don't want those guys . you know, want those guys. you know, stephen, facing new life, liberty and the pursuit of the. that's exactly what does it madison from paine it is not paine it's locke and can we can we be really clear the american bill of rights is , the first bill of rights is, the first cousins of the to english rights, is essentially rights , rights, is essentially rights, common law. it is not what's been built on to it, off to the 1960s. it's the right to bear arms is a direct crib from bill of rights, except all as is for the maintenance of a protestant militia, and theirs is for the maintenance of a militia. fortunately we no longer need a constitution constitu nation written by ambedkar is exactly for word. the republic of india is a secular socialist state, dedicated to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. and that didn't last well. it left property the right. and this again, i'm sorry, as a socialist, you weren't understand this. the property is the essentials right to live fundamental right. and the fact

that we've diminish this, that we attack it , the taxation we attack it, the taxation regime makes a mockery of the nofion regime makes a mockery of the notion of property rights is one of the reasons that things have gone so badly and so radically wrong . yes, that property is the wrong. yes, that property is the fundamental underpinning of all the rest of the constitution. if you don't property rights, then none of your other rights end up . well, i don't know. you can you can have a property if you're going to have and you got to dragged and executed to be dragged out and executed at of some despot. at the whim of some despot. you know, you don't have rights, can have brilliant house and no have a brilliant house and no head. your head head. but if he takes your head off, taken your property. off, he's taken your property. so your property off, he's taken your property. so but your property off, he's taken your property. so but thingslr property off, he's taken your property. so but thingslr prc padel rights. but things that padel don't know don't forget always let me know what mal mortgage what you think. mal mortgage gbnews.uk up of gbnews.uk coming up tens of thousands children have thousands of children have stopped going to school. one of us on to explain why we'll us going on to explain why we'll be by the esteemed author be joined by the esteemed author and sargeant and journalist harriet sargeant after .

break welcome back. i'm still jacob rees—mogg and this is state of the nation tonight you've getting in touch with your thoughts. sonja jacob thank you for your fantastic history . if for your fantastic history. if only people would listen to our message ten dr. starkey is absolutely correct. as usual, there is no such thing as human rights and when ? i'm not sure rights and when? i'm not sure you're right this, but i'll read it nonetheless. jacob, where have you been for the last 20 years? the uk as human rights is far worse the north koreas . i far worse the north koreas. i suggest you visit north and see for yourself . i think you might for yourself. i think you might get a bit of a shock anyway. we all know the precious time was lost during the pandemic despite the best efforts of parents to instil the syllabus from their kitchen as restrictions were lifted . children, of course, lifted. children, of course, returned to the classroom or so we all thought we may not realise the alarming number of

children did not and still have not returned to school. a new report from the centre for social justice lost and not found shows . 140,000 children. found shows. 140,000 children. yes hundred and 40,000 children are currently as severely absent , which means they spend more time out of the classroom than in it begs the question how can children possibly catch up if they don't show ? and what of the they don't show? and what of the vulnerability and welfare of these missing children where on earth are they? i'm joined now by author and journalist harriet sargeant, who has written all about oppressed of the issue about the oppressed of the issue of so—called ghost children. of the so—called ghost children. harry dual the one who's brought this people's attention. this to people's attention. where are these hundred and 40,000 children? who are they and who should be taking responsible for them? well, i think that the lockdown was all attention of the authorities was on all people and just assumed that when schools opened that children were just going to sit out back into school and they were very resilient and would

just pick up. and unfortunately this has not been the case before the pandemic , there were before the pandemic, there were about 60,000 children who were bad enough who are out of school. when i started looking this last year, there were 100,000. now it's gone up. i mean, the numbers are actually going up. it's140,000. so mean, the numbers are actually going up. it's 140,000. so who are these children ? well, they are these children? well, they are these children? well, they are both from the very poorest , are both from the very poorest, the most vulnerable . so children the most vulnerable. so children on free school meals are twice as likely as their better contemporaries to be out of school children , pupil referral school children, pupil referral units , 90% of them have units, 90% of them have vanished. i had one man who runs a small one. he had 14 and his now only three have come back. so it is the usual suspects, children , bad schools have children, bad schools have vanished and whose but also also middle class children. that's

the other thing . middle class the other thing. middle class children have also disappeared. but who has responsibility for the missing children? the council meant to be going round the schools, meant to be going round and visiting parents, trying to find out what the problem , why they're not coming problem, why they're not coming into school. well the schools are meant to, but one teacher told me this problem with children who were going onto sixth form because they have she said , had a whole lot of said, had a whole lot of children who said they were coming, you know, they were meant to be coming, and they just vanished. and she tried to speak to parents. she was told, oh, my child, her mental health is too, to actually come in to class all day . she's when we're class all day. she's when we're told it's mental health, just have to back off and we just have to back off and we just have to back off and we just have to hope that there's the services available to. help these children. but clearly aren't an is there in test to see whether the mental health issue is a real one or whether

the parents are saying this because they don't want to take their children to school? i their children to school? no. i mean, nobody really knows. but it a very real issue and it seems to the children seem to be divided into two. the children that just sit in the bedroom just crippled with anxiety , just crippled with anxiety, depression and can't take a step out . and then there's the out. and then there's the children who you can't get back into into home because they're out on the streets and that angry and doing all kinds of sort of anti—social behaviour and crime. so it's always the parents will, the children may reached the point that the parents can't get them back. i mean, all i can say is you have children . can you imagine children. can you imagine picking up a depressed 15 year old and carrying them back to school and just 15, you know , school and just 15, you know, angry all the way round? i certainly wouldn't try. but with the middle class children not going into school, the middle class children not going into school , how much of going into school, how much of thatis going into school, how much of that is homeschooling ? because a that is homeschooling? because a lot of communities include the

strict catholics that i know are very up with the indoctrination that see in sex education in schools. well, that's very interesting. you that because i'm not actually talking an african—caribbean school counsellor weekend and i was telling about this issue and he said have you actually looked into he said he knows a number of african african and caribbean and asian families and the parents are shocked. you know, they not want their children learning about what it is, choking or sex or whatever it is at the age of 11. and so they know this at the age of 53, you call rightly, let's pass i want me to. but anyway, but so they are you know they keep they are going for in home schooling but i don't have the on that i mean i don't have the on that i mean i think that's a very question because obviously people are entitled, rightly, to entitled, quite rightly, to educate children home, but educate their children home, but they to make some provision they have to make some provision with those aren't home educated.

what are the solutions? i just constituents mp that the parents get fined for taking children out of school for an unauthorised absence are actually the good parents who have thought things through and have thought things through and have bothered . tell the school have bothered. tell the school the a more convinced this the truth. a more convinced this approach to finding works and the idea taking away child benefit seems likely only to hit the poorest in society the most. i think it's not addressing the issue at. i mean, i spoke to a teacher who is teaching an all girls school in a kind of outstanding the school is outstanding the school is outstanding in sort of leafy and she says that 30% of the girls are not coming into school . 30% are not coming into school. 30% and she said that they're just sort of sitting in their rooms just overcome by depression. she said three girls have actually actually killed themselves and 30 have vanished altogether

further. so you're that middle areas , middle class parents. one areas, middle class parents. one is the people seem to have vanished from school children, just not turned up. but the other is very serious health consequences of . the lockdown consequences of. the lockdown for which there is insufficient support to help people to get well. i think nobody knows what to do because this is as i said it's an unplanned social experiment. and obviously schools have to do something . schools have to do something. but at the moment they don't even know what they are, how to get these children into schools. and , you know, there's the and then, you know, there's the onesi and then, you know, there's the ones i mean, i a number of young boys and they absolutely heartbreaking hearing how they disintegrate during this process . for example, one boy who's now in a gang . i mean, he he was in a gang. i mean, he he was fine . he used to go off to in a gang. i mean, he he was fine. he used to go off to his boxing club. he used to go and play boxing club. he used to go and play football . and he was fine play football. and he was fine before all this happened. and then the moment he didn't have that all important . i think

that all important. i think everyone with a teenage knows how important that kind of activity. he didn't the men in the boxing club and in his life and he was just stuck in his room doing online learning . he room doing online learning. he couldn't cope with online learning and he became angry. he became frustrated bitter and, turned against his school, doesn't get on with his mother and his out on the streets now and his out on the streets now and this this replicated across the country. so much bringing this to people's attention because without i don't think people knew about this and it is a great worry that 140,000 children being ignored children are being ignored effectively by the system. you, david cairns , always let me know david cairns, always let me know what you think. male margaret gbnews.uk. still ahead we will be discussing the vandalism . a be discussing the vandalism. a number of ulez cameras across , number of ulez cameras across, the capital with people climbing up and covering cameras with boxes and bags in protest at the scheme. we'll be talking about this cover up after these messages .

welcome back to state of the nation. in case you thought i'd been transmogrified, i'd remain jacob rees—mogg . and you've been jacob rees—mogg. and you've been getting in touch with your mail logs now. first word to wayne, who says , jacob, for reading out who says, jacob, for reading out my message . you asked if i'd my message. you asked if i'd lived korea ? no. i'm a lived in north korea? no. i'm a white working class male living in a labour controlled council in a labour controlled council in the north—west so i know what i'm talking about. well you better on this show and we better come on this show and we can talk about your council and see like north korea it is see how, like north korea it is . says these are still . chris says all these are still registered with schools . or were registered with schools. or were they de—registered? i think that's an important point for budgets , alan. not surprising . budgets, alan. not surprising. gone missing after lockdown. i wonder how many are being kept out of school. their parents don't want them polluted by all the being taught in the nonsense being taught in school. just thought and school. just a thought and i think quite a good one because i

certainly do know parents who are home educating because they don't some of the don't like some of the indoctrination anyway. the useless ulez you lose mr. khan , useless ulez you lose mr. khan, you may remember a few ago when we covered the vandalism of a number of ulez cameras in london . saboteurs, cut wires and, painted lenses. obviously criminal offence. but the public have become more creative . their have become more creative. their discontent for the spyware . take discontent for the spyware. take a look at these pictures . now. a look at these pictures. now. i've heard from my reliable sources that putting reusable shopping bags over the cameras is still a criminal offence. so don't try this at home. but the law is always enforced by consent and politicians must be very careful when they pass laws to which the public do not consent. fortunately we are not france because . our politicians france because. our politicians almost always the limitations of the power of the state. so the people have quite clearly spoken. i'm joined by the venerable historian, dr. and the renowned eco warrior , socialist

renowned eco warrior, socialist and former labour mp steven pound. and former labour mp steven pound . david would you be pound. david would you be tempted to put a plastic bag over a ulez camera? i must say, when the equivalent was introduced in the low traffic neighbourhood where i live in islington. yes. because of the gross irrationality of the thing. the division of neighbourhoods the making of local transport impossible and above all. in the case of elton's the deliberate moving of traffic into places where pedestrians go. it's lunatic. you deliberately create congestion and therefore traffic fumes and whatever. but i think, dare i say, i think there's a bigger point , which i think we bigger point, which i think we can all do the same . wouldn't it can all do the same. wouldn't it be nice to sort of spray paint at the things migrant anxiety is that transport for london going right back to its beginnings when it created the congestion charge as deliberately confuse what is supposedly penal. that's

to say a charge for doing something which is illegitimate , like going into central london, which we disapprove of . london, which we disapprove of. or polluting car and turn it essentially into revenue stream. is a deliberate confusion . two is a deliberate confusion. two things. it is profoundly hostile to all the things that you were talking in terms of good government. and i'm afraid it's going back to 18th century and the state becoming dangerously parasitic . and environmentalism parasitic. and environmentalism is increasingly leading to a parasitic state that doesn't actually facilitate the individual. it interferes with them in wholly arbitrary preposterous and increasing in as you said unpopular stephen it's called it's called socialism. stephen in favour. you're in favour of the ulez you'll have to be against these proposals . but do you think it's proposals. but do you think it's important to govern with concerned? well, i was about to say is consent. say key word here is consent. i'm in favour of the central london ulez . and i think if you

london ulez. and i think if you look at all the major changes that have been brought in in london of transport, london in terms of transport, you you know, you know, petrol, you know, without in seatbelts, no without in it seatbelts, no dfink without in it seatbelts, no drink , you know, there's been drink, you know, there's been a whole range of things which have been brought in, but they've been brought in, but they've been after discussion been brought in after discussion with i remember barbara castle making seatbelts. making the case for seatbelts. very, everybody very, very poor everybody understands nowadays that you don't have led in petrol and you don't have led in petrol and you don't drive without a seatbelt and drink drive. we're and you don't drink drive. we're fine problem with fine with it. the problem with ulez have it. thanks. ulez and we do have it. thanks. thankfully we do have a democracy we a next democracy we have a vote next year and. i think that sadiq khan will have to actually listen to a lot of people on this because it's now become an inner and an london. now, this because it's now become an irappreciatei london. now, this because it's now become an irappreciate the london. now, this because it's now become an irappreciate the audience1. now, i appreciate the audience for this . national, if not this programme. national, if not international, but in a london perspective , as is are happening perspective, as is are happening across countries . they said across countries. they said something they said to me the other day when i said arguing that said, oh, yes, but they're doing in. i said, well, doing it in. and i said, well, there's example it? there's good example isn't it? but david's point is but i think david's point is important that the state using law to apply charges for revenue

raising, it's not fundamentally socialist. i could totally disagree with that . look, i disagree with that. look, i think ulez should not be extended to the outer london boroughs because all indicators, all that we talks about all the data that we talks about air pollution in the zone and that needs to be it simply shouldn't apply to the london. but the thing i think about it being revenue stream, being a revenue stream, the amount of money that this country respiratory country spends respiratory diseases in diseases and problems in national health service is vastly than anything we vastly more than anything we could gain on could actually gain on settlement. well, i'm sorry it's been an absurdity . and been this is an absurdity. and also the difference that these make is tiny in comparison with the profoundest allocation to people's lives . and i think this people's lives. and i think this is something that we are i'm afraid, and the whole environment agenda we are now confronting this or should be confronting this or should be confronting this. we have, in fact, single fanatics repeat, oddly, in the whole area of government and nature, england and doing the prioritisation newts over building area after area. you have single issue

committee determining matters a very impact on people's and this is simply the wrong way of going about it because again it's just such a fundamental problem is the nature of the london fundamentally the mayor is only really transport commissioner. this means that he gets the police but he doesn't which which which he shares with the home secretary. but he fundamentally is a transport commissioner. this is not how you local government, local government should be looking at the broad range of issues, not simply focusing on. the one thing i think we've widened it out far wider than even ulez zone. yeah, because, you know, we're not talking much, much wider issues if we just actually stick to units at moment. stick to units at the moment. the remains that sadiq the fact remains it's that sadiq khan was evening town hall a couple of ago and. there couple of weeks ago and. there was a lot of people protesting. and think judiciously he and i think in judiciously he made between made the comparison between those as those protesting he said as anti—vaxxers that's anti—vaxxers and i think that's anti—vaxxers and i think that's a problem that i think the mayor needs to actually make the case

and the people and actually bring the people him. do come back him. but i do want to come back to point. i don't think to david's point. i don't think you on using this as you want on using this as a revenue raising when fines are there to enforce the law. but as itold there to enforce the law. but as i told king is like paul king, london's given the game of wellness. he just a target for speeding fines. wellness. he just a target for speeding fines . surely that is speeding fines. surely that is totally antithetical to the rules. how else would enforce the congestion charge without a fine? but this becomes about the fines , not about yes. how would fines, not about yes. how would you enforce it? well, first of all, it's perfectly clear that the congestion charge isn't actually about congestion in london . it has it on the culture london. it has it on the culture of congestion in london is actually the evidence is than it's ever been because . it's it's ever been because. it's deliberately generated by traffic so called traffic calming measures. the problem is it dealing with a whole series of utterly logically contradictory things . but for me contradictory things. but for me it is the use of the legal of nominal fining, be it, you know

parking fines, be it ulez fines , whatever, actually to generate revenue stream councils do not depend on council tax. they depend on council tax. they depend on council tax. they depend on this . you know what depend on this. you know what frankly is the equivalent of . frankly is the equivalent of. the 19th century sorry, the 16th century but through the kind of people who have patent, you know, so it's just simply isn't true. i mean, you can't then spread around any receipts from parking fines and let it fenced to highways and transportation issues. it doesn't that means you just to just put in more bollards to stop people moving on. that doesn't apply in central london. i think it's a real problem here that people do not between not differentiate between central outer london. and i think we to realise i would suspect we all know the first traffic lights were put in park lane in the 1920s because someone in at the end of someone was in at the end of your street. think might your street. i think you might brilliant up next brilliant panel coming up next it's the economist wage and the best man one find out shortly what happened after this message our sponsors .

welcome back to state of the nafion welcome back to state of the nation . me jacob rees—mogg, nation. me jacob rees—mogg, you've been in touch with your mail logs . you've been in touch with your mail logs. gary ulez is a moneymaking scam and jeff forget ulez e—scooters the real symptom of encroaching authoritarianism

and has a very good idea. of encroaching authoritarianism and has a very good idea . why and has a very good idea. why don't you get sadiq khan on the show. well mr. khan, if you're watching you would be extremely welcome but now it's for the economist's wager it's almost a grand national between economists . two economists are economists. two economists are here with me now and then a few to weigh on the twittersphere . to weigh on the twittersphere. and they decide to put their money weather forecasts where and some things over a bet worth £1,000 the matters now being settled and the defeated has paid up to the victor. settled and the defeated has paid up to the victor . well, i'm paid up to the victor. well, i'm actually delighted to be joined by the lifestyle by the head of lifestyle economics institute for economics at the institute for economics at the institute for economic christopher economic affairs, christopher snowdon , the victor and snowdon, the victor and professor economics at king's professor of economics at king's college jonathan porter college london. jonathan porter is the defeated . jonathan, first is the defeated. jonathan, first of all, thank you for coming in because i think it shows incredible to come in and discuss this when you didn't win . so i'll let you have the first word and explain what the bet was about. well, back . in 18 we was about. well, back. in 18 we were a commission and i and my colleague howard reid were, commissioned by as it happens ,

commissioned by as it happens, equality and human rights commission, does it really commission, but does it really matter to look at what impact of various changes to the taxes and benefits of the government was planning? in particular the introduction of the universal credit the benefit freeze , the credit the benefit freeze, the rise in the minimum wage and so on would be on incomes and poverty . and we forecast at time poverty. and we forecast at time based on what the opr and others predicted for the economy and the government planned in policy terms that child poverty would rise very sharply and. chris said no , that's not going to said no, that's not going to happen. it's not going to rise anything like that much. and we set it we set a time which was actually for 21, 22, but latest figures only just came out last week. and as you say , week. and as you say, christopher was right . week. and as you say, christopher was right. i was wrong. child poverty did not rise . as it happens. it pretty rise. as it happens. it pretty much at the same level, depending on exactly how you measure it. but we can talk

about what the reasons are, but basically our forecast and i'm going to give christopher the first say, what are the first option, say, what are the reasons you the reasons that you thought the bill was useless and didn't take any notice of its forecast. so was something was there something more profound ? that would profound than that? that would have been quite good have actually been quite a good reason is of the reason as. that is part of the reason as. that is part of the reason poverty rise at reason why child poverty rise at all. but no was simply the fact that you look at child that if you look at child poverty time, poverty over any period of time, never anywhere near the 41% never got anywhere near the 41% that jonathan was predicting . it that jonathan was predicting. it been never above 30% for a long time since about thousand and nine. and so without even reading report without knowing very universal very much about universal credit, i just said this just doesn't true to me . okay. doesn't ring true to me. okay. so, jonathan, how did you come up figures? what led up with the figures? what led you think that to what extent you to think that to what extent we were influenced by not liking the scheme ? well, this i mean, the scheme? well, this i mean, our model is simply a spreadsheet fed numbers and assumptions , the spreadsheet. so assumptions, the spreadsheet. so the extent of the forecast was wrong. it's because the that we fed were in were wrong so i mean as and chris say this at the

time so i think we give him credit he didn't say indeed say growth in average earnings is going to be significantly slower than is in your in the model in the forecasts and therefore the extent to which people whose benefits are frozen fall behind what will will not be nearly as much as you saying. and that was basically right either thing that happened, i think, was that some of the benefit cuts were planned then didn't happen or didn't happen in the way that they were planned. so for example, the government planned rather large in the value and number. people who got disability benefits and it simply hasn't worked out that way for various reasons. and is this an issue with modelling because forecasts are announced , it's reported as if they're highly as if they are going to happen and yet lots of forecasts turn out not to be right because the models aren't right that the information you put in the first place turns out not to be true. and be more suspicious and should we be more suspicious

of we should. and of models? yes, we should. and i think we should get more people putting skin in game as putting skin in the game as as jonathan all credit him jonathan did and all credit him for doing that. the for doing that. one of the things wrong with the things i think is wrong with the modelling, particularly when you're know, you're dealing, you know, government is it government handouts is it doesn't take they don't take into account behavioural doesn't take they don't take into accoitheyehavioural doesn't take they don't take into accoithey just ioural doesn't take they don't take into accoithey just simply say, changes, they just simply say, well if this person this much then just not going to have as much. whereas of course people respond in different ways to respond to incentives and disincentives. more than disincentives. we have more than a million job vacancies if somebody is not in work, can relatively easily get into work or they can work more hours or they can. or there are all sorts of things people do within of things that people do within that gift make models that gift to make models essentially redundant. so we see that lot. i mean clearly with the openreach certainly was out by £30 billion within three months of the november statement out by £30 billion, 30 billion more tax revenue than they thought it was going to be. so these models are often wrong. all but some all models are wrong, but some are as if i were famous. are useful as if i were famous. i should have skin in i think we should have skin in the thing that

the game. this is the thing that really me. my experience really bothers me. my experience in is models in financial services is models were wrong and invest were always wrong and yet invest looked at them and economists looked at them and economists looked at them and economists looked at them and politicians make policy on them. but this leads fundamental mistakes in investment analysis and in policy making. how do we improve it? how do we make it better? well, i mean , i think, as chris well, i mean, i think, as chris said, there's saying that all models are wrong, but some are useful. they force you to question your assumptions. they are well if the model are first. well if the model gives that result, what are the assumptions driving assumptions that are driving that result? it's about that result? whether it's about how people respond or don't , to how people respond or don't, to changes in behaviour , how changes in behaviour, how businesses and consumers respond to the rise in interest rates . to the rise in interest rates. is it actually likely that oil if your model is assuming oil pfices if your model is assuming oil prices will be $50 a barrel? this hole would happen if instead were $100 a barrel. those are the of questions that models can usefully answer . and models can usefully answer. and so, for example in brexit, where so, for example in brexit, where so far actually economists have done reasonable . well actually done reasonable. well actually most of the evidence suggests

the economy is responding to brexit. the mainstream models predicted . that is to say it's predicted. that is to say it's having a signifier , not having a signifier, not catastrophic, but not zero negative impact on the british. that's what the models predict is. that's what we think . but is. that's what we think. but the important thing is to say, well, what assumptions are driving that. we're making assumptions about trade assumptions about how trade increase , trade barriers, how do increase, trade barriers, how do you take into account behavioural changes by individuals and how do you improve your models so you don't have to pay out another thousand pounds with this particular model take into account model doesn't take into account behavioural changes, but a lot of the models that i do work with that economists do work with and that economists do work with and that economists do work with behavioural with do take account behavioural changes. example the changes. so for example the brexit assume that if brexit models, assume that if you up tariffs that trade you put up tariffs that trade will reduce. yes, we definitely it's are you still friends it's not. are you still friends with your friends beforehand or just competitors ? i think just competitors? i think perfectly friendly . it's a it's perfectly friendly. it's a it's a good because you annoyed that £2,000 been devalued by inflation. yes. i wish i wish i had made an index lecture. we

should have made it in gold sovereigns. thank to my guests, chris, for sending jonathan porter's and with. all porter's and with. that's all from next is down with from us. up next is down with mr. wooden want know of mr. wooden want know a box of tficks mr. wooden want know a box of tricks tonight. good evening, jacob. a show. jacob. we've got a big show. andrea your colleague andrea jenkins, your colleague on. why shamima begum must never return the uk. laurence fox , the return the uk. laurence fox, the guardian itself this apology over slave trade links tom bower on why king is right to snub son prince harry and an exclusive interview with kelly k. now, she is, of course, the women's rights advocate who was driven out of new zealand . those out of new zealand. those horror, well protests but someone say violent action over the weekend . well i'm delighted the weekend. well i'm delighted you've got andrew jenkins on who's absolutely brilliant. i think i disagree her on this subject. it'll an exciting lesson for everybody. but got the weather coming up and what be better than that? no one wants miss thanks to wants to miss that. thanks to all guests. tomorrow at all my guests. back tomorrow at 8:00, rees—mogg, all my guests. back tomorrow at 8:00, state rees—mogg, all my guests. back tomorrow at 8:00, state of es—mogg, all my guests. back tomorrow at 8:00, state of the mogg, all my guests. back tomorrow at 8:00, state of the nation. being state of the nation. tonight i at and aidan

tonight i look at and aidan mcgivern here from the met office lot of cloud sticking around for the 24 hours showery rain at times well especially in the north and the west . but it the north and the west. but it will be mild the air at the moment in the southwest moment in from the southwest it's circulating around an area of low pressure which will dominate things out of the atlantic the next days. atlantic through the next days. it's already sent initial set it's already sent an initial set of weather fronts through those fronts now clearing , which means fronts now clearing, which means that overnight, the more persistent spells of damp weather confined the north of scotland. be scotland. but there'll be further into further showery rain into the west scotland by the early west of scotland by the early hours, into northern hours, then into northern ireland and southwestern parts in a lot cloud, that cloud in a lot of cloud, that cloud covering the hills, it's going to be quite low, misty murky and temperatures staying at 6 to 9 celsius. so a mild , rather celsius. so a mild, rather gloomy starts to there'll be some kind breaks through the midlands into parts of england at times, but otherwise it's generally grey and further damp weather will come through, especially in the south, the west and across scotland . then west and across scotland. then into the afternoon , some

into the afternoon, some brighter skies developing will lead to higher temperatures. 5016, perhaps even 17 celsius. but the rain never be too far away. in fact , the rain becomes away. in fact, the rain becomes heavier and more persistent through wales in the southwest by evening that spreads into the midlands eastern and northern england and some heavy showers midlands eastern and northern englarrive1d some heavy showers midlands eastern and northern englarrive western heavy showers midlands eastern and northern englarrive western scotland)wers midlands eastern and northern englarrive western scotland asers will arrive western scotland as well northern ireland. so a well as northern ireland. so a wet for of us as. we wet spell for most of us as. we end the day on wednesday and go the early hours of thursday before tends become before it's tends to become a bit dry once. the cloud bit dry once. but keep the cloud cover and it's going to be another frost free rather mild start thursday . some start to thursday. some brightness once again through the east anglia, to the east anglia, north—east to scotland , although shetland scotland, although shetland likely to see a spell of wet and windy weather continuing through thursday. otherwise, it's a day of sunny spells and lively hail and thunder couldn't be ruled out and actually in between the showers there'll be some sunshine , temperatures reaching sunshine, temperatures reaching 16 or 17 celsius into friday some wet and windy weather to come. and .