we bought into this stock really quickly. to some degree whether earnings come out we hear this afternoon to microsoft or meta last night investors will want to see you hit it out of the park to justify buying at these levels. taylor: you talked about microsoft and google out after the bell. with microsoft, you guys the expectations are on a.i. revenue, look at that up 15% year over year and a bottom line improvement, 2 ilk 84. google, a similar story, can the advertising revenue keep up, you know, a.i., maybe a competitive risk in the short term. how does google navigate that? brian: i wonder if they talk about the firings at google on, somebody ought to ask them about that. that would be interesting. jackie: we'll see. we'll send it over to charles payne. he will take it from here. charles: thank you all very much. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." breaking right now sobering economic data pushed an already weak market right over the edge. looking at this, the market is

exhibiting a lot of grit. sew throughout the area what we've done we have some of the best on the street to share their thoughts. a gameplan dealing with evolving reality, that inflation ain't dead by a long shot. meta, joining the ranks of netflix, taiwan semiconductor, solid earnings but unsteady guidance. danielle shay what it means for alphabet and microsoft. they rout of course after the bell. democrats are urging president biden to pressure powell to cut rates. seen as a hail mary ahead of the elections. judy shelton with that. my takeaway from the overwhelming response to the "unbreakable investor" quiz show edition yesterday. all that and much more on "making money." ♪. charles: let's set the stage. remember last night meta reported, bam, it got hammered pretty good. the market was already reeling, right? ing of course it was meta's grand announcement. their a.i. thing.

we got this morning a es first quarter gdp report. the report came in disappointing. the street though it would be a little bit higher. you can see it is coming down that was somebody make you could work with, 1.6%, not 2.4% but there was a shocker in there, a real shocker and that was prices folks. they have gone so much higher. of course remember, economists have been making excuses for persistent inflation pressure and many of them outright dismissed the notion of sticky inflation. these numbers though are sobering. pce just buy itself was 3.1%. the street was looking for 3%. this is the real shocker pce ex-food and energy. we need food and energy this is it what the economists look at, what the fed looks at. wall street thought it with be almost 4%. 3.7 it came in. that is a heck of a one-two punch. it brought up what some people are talking about already, that is maybe stagflation.

remember a week ago the notion staffing stagflation was only on the hinges. last time she was on my show my next guest was decidedly cautious, great timing. i want to bring in main street asset management cio erin gibbs. you're too krunk to know about inflation. you maybe read about it. >> i was around. charles: it was pretty rough. there have been hints. there have been hints. economic growth down. gdp report came in much lower than expected. inflation up. the inflation part of it skyrocketing. unemployment, we have the unemployment data today was benign but something is weird with that number. all the tea leaves point this unemployment number starting to tick up. are we going to stagflation, are we there, will will be there? >> i think given increase in

inflation, that is one of the biggest drivers right now is that if we hit and which keep seeing these increases, incremental increases, i talked about having a second wave of inflation, really just happens once, i think that's when we're really going to see the stagflation. so, when people talk about cutting rates that would just be, like the absolute worst. we do not want to put more fuel on the fire. these stimulus programs that are happening, the loan forgiveness, the fed cutting rates too early, all of that will actually make things worse. we saw that in the early '70s. charles: right. >> we saw that in the mid '80s. charles: right. >> these are the policies that are actually making things worse for us. charles: it is so crazy because the whole runup to the fed rate hike cycle centered around arthur burns, the federal reserve official who got it wrong and paul volcker, the federal reserve official who got it right and jay powell went to the senate. he said on the senate floor he

would not be arthur burns. listen they didn't cut-rate. >> right. charles: some are wondering why they stopped hiking. maybe they stopped hiking too soon? >> maybe they stopped hiking too soon. we have to definitely got to put the word out the idea of having even one rate cut this year is really unlikely. because we need to slow down this inflation. it is really starting to pick up, it is becoming concerning. >> that is another thing, a lot of folks are saying powell helped to add, even saying we'll have three rate cuts was too much too early, actually made his job a lot harder. >> right. charles: i was reading your note. all the things you're talking about, plus the 5% bond yield, this 21 p-e ratio should be 15? >> we're looking 5% yield we're getting close in the 10-year that discounts how much you should pay for equities. these are obviously the more riskier estimates. charles: right. >> forward growth is really only

9% for this year. so if you subtract three or 4% out of that just from inflation, that is a pretty low -- charles: that is a long trek from 21 to 15. 15 is not even on the board. i have to make up for something. >> exactly. charles: haven't seen 15 in a long time. >> that's rational. we haven't been at 15 a long time. if we see another round of inflationary pressure we could go back to 15. we had lows earlier back. we were hitting the 17 mark. i'm saying be prepared for more downside. it is really hidden in those growth stocks, as we see the cap-ex costs are rising too we should be very careful. charles: interesting you mentioned that. everyone was saying they had a moat they didn't need to raise money. >> but they have they have to s. the vix is relatively low, fear in the past week, it is relatively cheap.

trade off the fear. it is more of a short-term trade but i think with increased political instability around the world, any sort of big shock -- charles: sounds like a great idea. >> easy trade. easy trade. charles: this insurance policy. when it goes crazy it spikes. one thing in your portfolio is spiking when everything else is red would feel pretty good. >> if we see more disappointments in any of these big tech names that's going to spike. charles: the stip. >> short-term inflation protected treasurys. take as long while to get it out. it is an etf, but basically it is a way to protect yourself against the reinflation we're seeing. the basically the price doesn't go down like all the other treasury prices. yields have been going up. the price has been going down. charles: right. >> this basically stays very stable, slight hi lower yield than the short-term treasurys but it preserves your capital where you're not losing money. charles: capital preservation in

a rocky environment. great stuff. >> yeah. charles: glad you were here to kick off today's show. going into the session, "the magnificent seven" had become a dynamic duo. only two of these bad boys. all the rest are trading down here. after meta posted that financial report last night, mark zuckerberg said forget about these goggles, we want to be an a.i. player. now meta's stock is starting to swoon as well. i don't know, there can only be one like the movie highlander, nvidia, last one standing? well my first, my next guest says rather in a perfect world megacap tech earnings from meta, microsoft, google, amazon could actually have sent the nasdaq into recovery mode. instead it is not in recovery mode. it is actually back on its heels. let's bring in now from simpler trading, their vp of options, danielle shay. danielle, netflix and taiwan semiconductor were slammed. they had solid results.

meta had solid results. they join the pain. you said in sort of a perfect world these names lifted the market up. what is so imperfect right you in? >> charles, when you look at earnings, typically you want to see companies beating eps and beating revenue estimates and trading higher, right? but that is not the flavor of the season this quarter. the market has incredibly high expectations and is very jittery. we're seeing one tiny little comment as it relates to guidance or something the executives say on the call and the stocks are getting slammed. charles: right. >> right now we have a major risk with megacap earnings. even though these companies are strong, they're beating earnings, doing well, we see a little bit of slowing growth. charles: we saw this yesterday. i think it is spot on. i want to ask you about it, i think it will help investors. one of more frustrating things you own the stock, the news is good, the stock goes down, and sometimes the news is bad and

the stock goes up. on one hand, double miss, tesla missed earnings by a big shot, worst earnings in 20 years. they missed on revenues. the stock exploded on 12 points higher. meta crushed it top and bottom, it is getting hammered. what isodd, coming into the earnings season, maturation of mark zuckerberg, slow and steady and wild card elon musk you had to worry about, feels like elon musk had a game plan that was reasonable whereas maybe zuckerberg is back out there sort of where wall street doesn't want him to be? >> you know, charles, i completely agree with you. i love this meme. what i will point out to investors you have to pay attention to when a trade is just incredibly heavy. for example, with tesla it was the most obvious short. it has been in a downtrend. everybody is worried about musk. what happens the trade gets crowded. when there is a little bit of good news it leaves room for it to rally.

with meta it was opposite. everybody was incredibly bearish. everybody thought it would explode. you get a little bit of negative news, it can roll over. pay attention to crowded trades, that is when they can go in the opposite direction. charles: the other thing you pay attention to is the charts. so nasdaq moving further down here away from the 200 day moving average, a very pivotal support point. if things start to break down further from here, how much downside risk do you see in the near term? >> charles, i think that we have another 500 points of downside, maybe even a thousand. it is going to depend how short investors get. right now we're seeing the put-call ratio a little bit elevated but it is not elevated enough for a bounce. we still have a lot of heavy macroeconomic factors. so what i'm eyeing here is for when investors really start to panic. we can finally hit some critical support zones. then at that point we can bottom. i don't think we're there yet. charles: to that point, i think today's session is holding up a

lot than i thought it would at 9:25, 9:29. before i let you go, speaking of semis, nvidia is still in my mind. semis are hanging in there. the think about semiconductors, april is typically the worst month ever and may is the best month. semis hold them out, grind away for another week hoping that seasonality helps? >> charles, when you're looking at the semiconductors that is another sector that is highly in focus here but it also has broken through the 50 simple on the daily chart. this is a critical support zone and it has got to rover. we need nvidia to start trading higher which is a little bit dice sy right now. we need to break smm higher. that is the line in the sand for me. charles: danielle, thank you very much. really appreciate you. earnings season taking a toll, taking an interesting turn, rather. my next guest says this all

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charles: well for my next guest one of the key market themes for 2024 unless the fomc have begun reasonably aggressive rate cutting that a quote, healthy broadening out from tech, industrials and energy into smaller caps, financials and rate-sensitive stocks will be in his words improbable. let's bring in ironsides macro managing partner barry knapp. barry, what caught my eye, your estimate of the natural rate now being 4%, just a month ago, larry summers ruffled a lot of feathers when he made the same assumption. what do you think others are not seeing? >> larry talked about the fiscal theory of the price level and the idea of running 7% budget deficits during an economic expansion, government spending

at 24 to 25% of gdp raising aggregate demand higher than the economy can absorb it and causes higher trend inflation. for whatever reason the fed refuses to discuss this. we know the real reason is political. even when they hint about it, wahler, for example was pushed at the economic club of new york to talk about the deficits. he merely describes them as unsustainable, when the real issue is not so much that we're about to be on the verge of a european-style debt crisis, it is that it will cause higher trend inflation and that's where we're at. so there is other related issues. the fed's dismissal of higher trend productivity, overreliance on demographics but for me the real issue is higher trend inflation is a consequence of super accommodative fiscal policy. charles: yeah. and you know, again, to your point, it will be even tougher, not only to talk about it, but to do anything about it as we get close to november. i do want to talk about the

financial reporting, right? we're in the midst of earnings season, because the title of your notice, quote, chaos hits the fan. you focused on revenues which by the way refreshing. i begin with organic revenue growth and margin expansion, that i like more than earnings. at the bottom of the sheet manipulate ad million times. for me this is something of a bust, coming into the week only 56% of the s&p had beat on revenue. you see a name like caterpillar today, great earnings, missed on revenues, stock getting hammered. what's going on here? >> well, caterpillar's probably indicative of patterns that we've seen, we saw it in the corporate profit measure for all of last year in the fourth quarter in particular which is external revenue growth is weak. this morning's gdp for example, we had off the chart imports growth and really sluggish export growth. i see revenue growth a little below four so far for the s&p 500. four is a really key level. below four companies have

negative operating leverage, meaning they have trouble covering their fixed expenses. above four, operating leverage turns positive. i think that number will wind up a little higher than that. this morning a es nominal gdp number is 4.8. that is consistent with revenue growth being a little higher but you're right, this is the key issue to watch to see whether the corporate sector will come under pressure. charles: hey, i've got a minute to go, barry, i want to talk about bonds because you wrote on that. i have thought it was intriguing you said to write analogy for this current bond market would be the 1960s bond bear market. i haven't heard a lot of people in the same camp as james grant, who suggested we could be in beginning of secular bear market in bonds, 30, 40 years. are we looking at something like that? >> i think we are, yes. one of the main similarities in world war ii we capped explicit

interest rates. that kept the banking system to be loaded with treasurys t took 30 years to wind that down. through the '50s, 60's, and '70s, we had a series of higher highs and lower lows in rates. every recession would cause a little bit of a rally but they continued to trend up. that is a inflationary or re-flationry environment. that was expansive fiscal environment. i think those similarities are just so apt in this environment, yeah, we're in a long-term structural bond bear market, the opposite of the first four decades of my wall street career. charles: the first four decades where it felt a little easier. by the way before i let you go, this is a chart up of your work, i hope you do. you show the 10-year yield high as almost, eight 1/2, finishing in the early '70s, a lot higher than we are now. right now we're afraid of breaking five. folks that could be a possibility in the near future as well. barry, thank you so much, my friend. great stuff, we always learn from you.

>> all right, thanks, charles. charles: appreciate it. folks, pce data coming up tomorrow. my next guest says in its effort to fight inflation the fed is fueling inflation. that is one heck of a predictment. judy shelton breaks it all down for us next. ♪. ok y'all we got ten orders coming in.. big orders! starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant.. that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our business needs. the chase ink card made it easy. when you go for something big like this, your kids see that. and they believe they can do the same. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase with the chase ink business unlimited card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.

♪. charles: so yesterday i ran into a whole lot of articles, right, about the fed being higher for longer, right? and rate hikes being pushed out and it's been like really got to be honest, pulling teeth get most of economists to come on the show to even entertain the idea anything other than a soft landing was in the cards. everyone was no, soft landing, soft landing. my next guest has been worry abouted this. she has been worried about this a long time. after this morning i think the true believers in a soft landing might be coming out of that fog. independent fellow judy shell ton. i love your note, we should be focused everyone should be worried about rate hikes and even stagflation, right? >> well, yeah, that has been the concern. i think it was a shock this morning to see that growth

appeared to be much lower than had been expected but i wouldn't call this stagflation. i would call it stem-flation. because the growth we've been seeing, which has been pretty impressive, it really i think caused by the fiscal stimulus, the deficit spending of government. charles: right. >> and to a certain extent that is kind of artificial but now since the fed's only way to fight the inflation caused by the fiscal spending, all they can do is raise rates, i don't think they can get ahead of it. charles: right. >> now you have a situation even as the fed is raising rates, because that's their only, that's their only response to inflation that just won't keep coming down as they had hoped they are affecting, for example, mortgage rates. well, that is a cost of housing and shelter. so that has and inflationary impact. when they increase the cost of

borrowing for business but at the same time the government is fueling demand and consumption, not just through subsidized spending, programs it is doing to carry out infrastructure projects, but talking about forgiving student hones, all of that puts, puts money on the costs of consumers an puts pressure on prices, well that higher borrowing costs the company will say that is just another coast of doing business. charles: sure. >> that is going to go to the bottom line. now the consumers are going to pay that. so that is inflationary. just the government having to pay higher rates on its own debt increases the deficit, therefore the amount of fiscal stimulus. you throw into that the fed paying banks 280 billion last year to keep money sitting dormant at the fed in cash depository accounts, now depositors are wanting a piece of that. as higher returns on cash are flowing back into the private

sector, you also have people who now say, i wasn't expecting that. so that increases their consumption capability. so we're fighting against ourselves here between fiscal and monetary. charles: and by the way, within that framework of all the things you talked about, you know there is one group though that continuously gets hammered, the lower 50% of households in this county because they don't have assets that make money, right? their stimmie checks went away a long time ago. higher mortgage rates, borrowing costs, budget deficit, fed paying billions of dollars again to banks not to lend to the people who are suffering the most in this environment. so we've got a conundrum. what happens? is the only solution for the federal government to stop spending as much money as they're spending? >> i think that's really important, yes. because what we've seen happening is that the government will always pay whatever interest rate it has to get the

money to finance its own projects. charles: right. >> and meantime the high borrowing costs is probably hurting the private sector borrowers. it is just where we've seen the growth, the reason we thought, oh, the economy is robust and resilient, when you analyze where the growth was coming from, it is always coming from the government spending. charles: right. >> you see that kind of model worked in china for a long time. ultimately it failed. charles: when it fails it fails big time. i have less than a minute to go. i want to switch gears here for a moment. there is a little scuttlebutt going around. again we would cut three times from jay powell's perspective. wall street said, seven, six, then president biden started bragging about it. he said i stand by rate cuts. oh, that was kind of scary. now i'm reading there is actually some folks out there who, some democrats who are pushing the president to actually drop the hammer on

jay powell, talk jay powell, force him into rate cuts. you know we know that's a scary path but president biden mentioned cuts more often, i was kind of surprised how much he has mentioned cuts recently? >> well he did mention it in a speech. i thought well that its just going to be such good news to the fed that they won't have to raise and they're going to probably end up lowering. we've seen the fed restating, no, no, we're very, we're very resistent to that and that doesn't play any role in our thinking, but i can't believe the fed isn't sensitive to the possibility if they cut-rates it will be seen as political. because now they have, well it is always been the dual mandate but now you have dueling mandates because now the fed, that was looking to cut might be able to say, well, it's not that inflation has come down the way we like but look, if the economy is going off the cliff, then

that would be a reason to support the economy to cut. charles: right. >> but i would be very reluctant to do that, unless they see, maybe the second quarter, unless we see, april, may, june, also keep dropping off and shocking people. then they might have time to change gears before the july meeting which is at the very end of the month. then that gives them the jackson hole conference to try to explain it all. charles: yeah. i'm going to steal that though, dueling, i love that the dueling mandate. by the way powell set us up for it, he kept saying if we get a surprise in unemployment, sounds like 4.1% is powell's excuse to cut. judy, we'll see. thank you very much. always appreciate it. >> thanks, charles. >> all right, folks in his monday note my next guest warned that flocks turned sloppy and likely to consolidate and correct. joining me crossmark ceo, cio, bob doll in studio. so great to have you in studio.

>> thank you. charles: let's bring up some of the observations that you have in this note. >> okay. charles: powell hawkish, consumers healthy, excess savings dwindling, for follow gone. soft landing unlikely. maybe maybe you published this, on the street, 98% would disagree with you. i think that needle is starting to move a little bit. >> absolutely right. maybe the perfect environment isn't going to happen. today's report was perfect for that. both less than expected. inflation more than expected, now what do we do? charles: >> we'll have earnings shortfalls, interest rates higher, multiples following those are not great. charles: i don't think you say the market is priced for perfection butter in perfection. >> close. charles: one thing you and victoria always talk about is the bifurcation. not just one singular consumer. you pointed out some consumers have been unhealthy for a while. >> sad but true.

struggled keeping their job, maybe problems with wage increases, now they're tapping their credit cards, and even evidence they're going into their 401(k)s. that is not sustainable. not good news. >> powell hawkish, owe doesn't want to be hawkish. he wants a soft landing more than anyone, particularly after the transitory thing? how does he express it? even the last time we stepped up that we heard from him, he still sort of alluded the next manufacturer would be cuts? >> that's still in my view the most likely. you have had three cpis disappointing in a row. the pce todays a you mentioned earlier. he will have to wait for a while and pray for some good luck to be able to lower rates anytime soon. charles: equity risk premium down here at levels we haven't seen. going back two decades, what does this mean? for you, what does this mean? like the risk you take, is it too much risk to own stocks right now? >> it is too much risk if you're

expecting to get a double-digit return like so many have gotten the last 10 years. what it tells you long-term returns will be a lot lower. i made to be bearer of bad news. maybe 5% next five years for stocks? charles: you conclude in your note, relatively long. we prefer stocks with strong earnings predictability, strong earnings persistence and strong free cash flow. the good news it is getting easier to find them because they're starting to stand out in the crowd. >> exactly right. for a while everything was going up, especially "the magnificent seven." then you got the broadening in the market but if we're going to question growth, and we're worried about inflation, strong earnings predictability, strong free cash flow, that should keep you out of trouble. charles: i want to ask you, bob, faith based investing. >> yeah why your firm does faith based investing. the both has been magnificent. magnificent. makes me feel good, overall belief or faith in this country has been on the decline for a

few decades. >> sad but true. charles: what differs faith based investing differ? >> allows a advisor, institution, i i want to line up my faith with my investments. as light bulb goes on. can you do this for me? it is a small piece of money management business. charles: seven years in a row, right? >> seven years in a rote. will be the 8th this year. charles: at top, christian, pap activity capital. for instance, tobacco stocks? >> for anybody screening for these things, we don't open tobacco. companies that make products that harm people, will not go there. russell 1000 companies. there are 44 we won't own because they have to back co-like aspects to them. charles: bob you're a legend. >> good to see you. charles: see you soon. the market is holding up a little bit better than i thought

it would this morning. nevertheless my next guest says you may still want to cool your heels. kenny kenny polcari was a little cautious. now maybe a little bit more cautious. thanks a lot. ♪. (traffic noises) (♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts.

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ask your rheumatologist about cosentyx. ♪. charles: from invincible to growing double. my next guest says confluence of fed concerns earnings speculation has increased market ture lens. the real tell yesterday when stocks didn't roar. i want to bring in slatestone wealth chief strategist, kenny kenny -- kenny polcari. you said strong gains in earnings in texas instruments they didn't really move and that was problematic, right? >> that was a little problematic, everyone was sew concerned what the tech companies would start to say, tesla, they came out with great earnings. we saw the after-hours of tuesday, but it didn't flow until yesterday. then you started getting more concern about the economy but started getting concerns about the upcoming tech earnings,

right? are they going to be as perfect as the market is expecting them to be. i have been kind of, you and i have been talking about this for a while, unless they were completely priced for perfection the risk was to the downside, not the upside and that is exactly what we're seeing. i'm not necessarily surprised. i don't necessarily think the bottom will fall out but i think investors have to get used to the idea they got way ahead of themselves on the narrative the market created over multiple rate cuts. there has to be a repricing, not a disaster but repricing. charles: what do you make of reaction to meta? on the one hand there are targeted adjustments. we'll put them up. there weren't misdemeanor. the lowest was 5.20. the firm said we're a little disappointed. you look at numbers from 5.50 to 5.25 the stock is moving a whole lot down more than that the folks that follow the stock are not as concerned as the overall

market. >> what i think you're seeing today, you're seeing very much a algorithmic reaction in the stock and it is overdone. i agree, i didn't think the news zuckerberg came out the earnings, forecast, cap-ex spending i thought that was a positive. they're spending more money on a.i. he wants to be the premier a.i. stock in the world. my guess is he is probably pretty close chance of getting there but he needs to spend the money to get there. i was actually not nearly as disappointed the way the stock is reacting today. i think that is much more. the algorithms didn't hear exactly what they wanted. so the algorithms are unemotional, they say sell, sell, and you get this nokia-on effect, right? charles: yeah. >> natural buyers will not get in the way and get run over. they step back in a minute and the buyers will come back n i never owned it. i've never been kind of a facebook person, say what it is,

i don't think yesterday's news was a disaster by any stretch. charles: you're looking good enough, my man, checking you out, you're looking pretty good. you might want to get that facebook profile going, but to your point the stock is 100 bucks less than the consensus target. >> right. charles: you said 4950 is the key support. you have a red line. we're approaching it quickly. what happens if the s&p doesn't hold that support? >> the 4950 is intermediate term trend line which is now support for the s&p because what was support at 5120 is now resistance. so we're now in that trading range, right. i think it is very important, and i am actually not going to be surprised if we see the s&p test 4950 but here is what i meant in my note this morning, i dough want to see it tested but hold as well, right? a key number for to hold. it has to come down, test it, investors have know that is a place of real support. now if we don't, if it fails,

right, to hold the 4950 then what you are going to get is another round of technical selling by the algorithms because it will have broken that trend line. all the algos are told is, breaks a trend line that is a tech fail, sell, sell, sell. you will get potential another push lower. investors know this. smart people, traders in the market understand this. so they're going to watch to see. so right now you are asking me am i buying or selling stocks? i'm not doing anything. i have a portfolio. i have cash on the side. i will wait to see what happens when we test that level. does it hold or does it not? charles: freight stuff, kenny. thanks a lot my friend, talk to you real soon. >> always a pleasure. thanks, charles. charles: i want to share a special message about "becoming unbreakable." later in the show i got some things i want to share. heard some amazing feedback. don't go away. thanks. ♪

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charles: all right, folks, the pantheon of cool has legendary names, newman, mcqueen, miles and now let's add greenhouse, as in dan greenhouse who is as cool as the other side of the pillow. [laughter] join toking me now. managing director, dan greenhouse. you know, dan, we were, like, the market looks bad, it's falling apart, let's call dan and see what's going on. dan's, like, what's up? if don't even worry about it. everything's good. >> it is. charles: you're not flustered at all? >> we have to view everything that's happening now in the context of the rally that a occurred off the october low which is 20-25% for stocks, we've given back a couple of percentage points. obviously, there's concern about the gdp report and inflation, but again, in the context of that 20 plus percent rally, a small, minor pullback. charles: but defiance has now shifted to the downside. >> yeah. i think there's some short-term technical stuff that probably

suggests the bias is to the downside. you have the inflation report coming tomorrow. today's gdp report suggests that perhaps it might be a little hotter than expected and, of course, the fed next week. so at minimum, you've got a cap on things, but the bias might be to the downside in the short term here. charles: at what point do you get concerned? does the market direction concern you m or will it be the actual data or the reaction to the data? >> well, listen, the reaction to the data is all that ever merits, but right -- matters, but but the focus has been on the inflation numbers. the federal reserve kept telling us inflation's going to come down, that was part of the reason that stocks were able to rally and perhaps part of the impetus behind enthusiasm. if that proves more tiki than we expected, and it already has been, that's going to throw a real wrench in the work, i think. charles: three rate cuts out the window, maybe one hanging by a thread. meantiming stagflation, the conversation about a stagflation is there, doll on earlier, i

don't think he's in that camp yet, but i think more people think it's worth discussing. >> bob doll's a up super smart guy. i didn't see the interview, because i was getting my makeup done, crucially important -- charles: the o guys on the list never had makeup, newman, mcqueen -- [laughter] >> but about the stagflation p listen, there are things happening, potentiallating about which you would pay attention, but at the end of the day,, the gdp if report was not quite as a bad as head laurens suggested, and you need more to really get concerned about it. charles: when you do make adjustment, do you make them on the edges or wholesale changes? it feels like if you're waiting until, okay, something is undeniable, then you have to make a harsh,er turn. >> the way that we manage our portfolio probably not going to be how most of the people out there manage their portfolio. charles: right. >> most of the people -- charles: you're a real hedge fund. >> we're a -- charles: listen, he can funds

over the years kind of tried to goose the returns. >> no. we're not a long only, we are a true hedge fund in in the textbook definition of the phrase. but for most investors out there, you want to be thinking about thing over a longer period of time and in terms of adjusting behavior over your portfolio, if you think that this is temporary, the slowdown, the inflation, federal reserve and ultimately the economy will continue expanding and corporate profits will continue growing, you don't want to do much in the way of adjusting your portfolio. certainly, you want to sell visa and buy mastercard or something like that, but in terms of running for the hills unless you have concrete evidence that profits are going to turn down and the economy's going to turn down, which we don't see as of yet, then running for the hills is historically never a good idea. charles: bottom line is don't panic. >> generally sleek -- speaking. charles: thank you, sir. put a good word in for me at the committee. [laughter] i want to take a moment to talk about yesterday's show. unbreakable investor, the quiz

show edition can. you know, on "making money, "we like to experiment. the goal, of course, is to bring more people into the stock market. and it's days like today's session that will really, you'll see this on the local news, right? if the market's down 2%, it's going to be the first thing on the local news. those quiet sessions when the market moves higher and higher, it never makes headlines. and i get it. listen, traffic doesn't slow down to admire how smooth the other lanes are moving. so we've tried things on this show, and chittedly sometimes they -- admittedly sometimes they don't go -- yesterday a few people weren't too happy with the as astrology part of the segment. the b block, for instance, it was a great hit. i mean, i keep hearing from people they loved it, particularly that last chart. this chart, looking at the little red slivers versus the big parts, right? is it worth being in this market long term even for the periodic crashes, and the answer is

obviously, yes. then there was the quiz show part of it, it was an absolute blast. and one of the questions was immediately relevant this morning. royal caribbean posted strong earnings and, listen -- [laughter] look at this, even though the market's getting hammered, guess what one of the big winners of today is? royal caribbean. so what's really gratified though, i've got to be honest with you, there's the been so many responses from folks who have never invested in the market before, some who are in the market. i got an e-mail from if one of my subscribers that was particularly moving. now, the subject line read a million thanks, actually, a lot more than that. tom went on to write, charles and team, today as i watched your show, it reminded me how much you really care about individual investors. i'm sure you get a lot of thanks, but i wanted to take the time the say thank you and explain a little of what happened to me. i'm probably more fortunate than most of your clients, but i feel a deep sense of gratitude to you and your service. i know everyone must be working tremendously hard. i find what you do very stressful.

the e-mail went on and on and on from there, it was so beautiful. and i have to say, you know, this is why i've committed almost four decades of my life to this effort. so, tom and everyone else out there, i want to say, thank you. it really is an amazing thing. and again, for none who missed the show and are really interested in learning a lot more at least about my approach to the stock market. you can go to unbreakable investor.com, go there, the book is free. shipping and handling, you have to take care of. but you heard what dan said, a professional hedge fund manager, folk folks. you've got to use the parts when you naturally may want to bail, your gut is turning, those ironically enough historically have been the most amazing times to buy stocks. if you're not going to be that call like, you know, paul newman, at the very least, don't be victim to it. here's kelly o'grady. kelly: words to live by, charles. thank you. hello, everyone. i'm kelly o'grady. markets are awash in red as we enter this final hour of trading with 59 minutes left in th