do that. jon than, would you? >> no, i'd be scared to i'd ferret forget9 the cog was in there. maria: we have to minutes before the opening -- 30 minutes before the opening bell. dow industrials down 69, the nasdaq up 28, s&p lower by 4 points. we will get the feddecision today at 2 p.m. eastern and hear directly from jay powell at 2:30 on the path forward. we'll see if he's a little more hawkish than usual. i think that's what came out today. you agree with that? >> there's no reason to lower now, that's for sure. expectations have been ratcheted back. maria: thomas, great of to have you, come back soon is. have a great day, everybody. "varney & company" pick it up. stu, take it away. stuart: good morning, everyone. try to find the news on the border these days, and you'll get whiplash. late tuesday the supreme court said it's okay for authorities in texas to arrest illegal migrants. just a couple of hours later an

appeals court in new orleans says, hold on, we're pointing to hear an appeal to the texas law so it's on hold while we deliberate. biden says republicans are blocking real border solutions. that's strange when with texas is the only place that has actually cut the illegal flow. more politics. trump's candidate won the ohio gop primary. he solidifies his grip on the are republican party. biden won all the democrat primaries, but there was a significant write-in campaign from voters when want someone else. 13% of voters in ohio preferredded dean phillips even though he's dropped out. on the markets -- wait a second, the federal reserve delivers its interest rate message early this afternoon. everybody9 expects no change now. nobody knows how many rate cuts we might get this year. look at the market. kind of on pause before the big news this afternoon. the dow down about of 60, the nasdaq up about 30. as for bitcoin, it dropped to $60,000 earlier this morning. it's recovered to 63,9.

little change for interest rates, the 10-year moving around 4.28% now and the 2-year, 4.67, 4.68%. there you have it. gas keeps moving up. it's now above the $3.50 level. it's been inching higher for weeks, $3.51 right now, up 3 cents overnight. on the show today, nelson peltz is a tough wall street guy currently challenging bob eyeinger's rule at disney. -- bob iger. he says he'll vote for trump because of biden's really scary mental state. caitlin jenner opposes men transitioning to women in sports, in women's sports. does she feel -- all a sports, contact and non-contact alike? we'll find out, he's on the show. and the royal controversy knows no bounds. the he iser the call reaction to an edited photo continues. some people are convinced the woman in the picture is not kate middleton. we cover it all. wednesday,march the 20th, 2024.

"varney & company" is about to begin. ♪ ♪ stuart: okay e, that's about texas. we're back to square one after the reversalling of the decision. lauren: yeah. stuart: we got it. can and coldplay, the second biggest thing to come out of england besides stuart varney. [laughter] that was impressive. stuart: what are you doing tomorrow? >> i'm buttering this guy up. stuart: we start this morning with major reversal at the border. a principal appeals -- federal appeals court has put the texas back law wag back on hold. take us through it. lauren: back at square one. texas wants to enforce its own laws at the border by arresting and and deporting illegals.

the supreme court ruled in their favor. then a federal appeals court blocked it. here's the white house before the block. we fundamentally disagree with the supreme court order allowing texas' harm aful if and unconstitutional law to go into effect. it's called s.b. 4. it will not only act make communities in texas the less of safe, it will also burden law enforcement and sow chaos and confusion s.b. 4 is just another example of republican officials politicizing the border while blocking real solutions. an appeals court will hear oral arguments two hours from now. guess what? who is in arizona today? president biden. will he rate the border? if stewart stuart no. lauren: no. there have been, look at this, more than 140,000 border apprehensions in february, the most coming from arizona a, 55,000, because texas is cracking down even though it's being fought out in the courts. they're my greating to arizona -- migrating to arizona,

to other border states. mexico comes out and says we're not going to accept any migrants that texas sends away unless they're citizens of mexico. stuart: i think you've confirmed it is an absolute mess. lauren: can anybody keep up with anything i just said? >> not even lawyers. [laughter] lauren: coldplay, back at square one. stuart: liz peek is with us. i have to believe this helps trump or and hurts biden. what say you? >> yeah. what i can't get over, stuart, is that joe biden should take the win. if texas wants to cut down on illegal immigration, and as lauren pointed out the numbers are indeed receding in terms of people coming across the border in texas illegally, why isn't the joe biden white house celebrating that? don't forget this isn't -- it's only -- this isn't its only skirmish with texas. it also went in and cut down razor wire that texas had put up to stop people coming across. again, not all people coming across, but those coming across

at illegal -- between legal ports of entry. so texas the has been doing the right thing. they also that had a big battle over closing federal officials out of shelby park for the same reason, to cut down on people coming across the border. it seems nuts to me because this is literally an open sore for the biden white house. who is with he pleasing in take on greg abbott? who, by the way, i think is the unsung hero of this entire saga about our open border. stuart: remarkable guy, yes. >> he's the one who brought it to the attention of the american people by shipping people to cities around the country. good for greg abbott. stuart: yeah. and governor desantis until florida is thinking about shipping migrants to martha's vineyard again. [laughter] nice trick, that one. all right, liz, a big night in the primaries last night. in ohio bernie moreno won the state's republican senate primary. in illinois another protest vote against biden, democrat voters wrote in gaza as their choice

for prime minister i would say that's a good -- for president. i would say that's a good night for trump, what ayou? >> yeah, i totally agree. i think it shows there is a fracture in the democratic party. i don't know how biden fixes this. he isn't going to fix it, i don't think, by going after benjamin netanyahu, israelis' prime minister, by saying he should be thrown out of office. i can't imagine that's a very winning strategy. many in ohio it was a pretty hotly contested race between three people, among three people, and the trump-backed candidate who came out for in december won by a pretty hefty margin. and, stuart, going back to the border discussion, three-quarters of the people who voted for moreno basically think that all illegals should be deported. i mean, what's really tragic to me is that voters have now really turned against immigration in a way that we haven't seen since, frankly, obama also took a very lenient

view of illegal immigration. the bottom line is, and this could the elect donald trump, voters understand the difference between the legal and illegal immigration. democrats have basically wiped out that difference, but americans believe in pit. stuart: you got that right. liz peek on a wednesday morning, thanks very much. see you again later. >> thank you so much for having me. stuart: oh, sure. how much money are outside groups -- i know it's a lot of up money, but how much are the outsiders paying to biden's campaign? lauren: "the new york times" is saying a billion dollars, and it doesn't stop there it's coming from the league of conservation voters, very progressive group, $120 million. $250 million from future forward. you have the union there and american bridge. it's a lot of money. and it's estimated that the the biden campaign could wring in -- bring in $30 billion for his re-election effort. what are democrats and their pocket ifbooks motivated by? trump. they want to defeat trump, and they'll put an obscene amount of money on that.

so now you ask, well,ing okay, how much has the trump campaign and the rnc raised? not a lot per the latest numbers which are from the end of january. but the democrats, and the new york times points this out, they denote how much has been pledge ared whereas the republicanned typically show how much has already been beginning. stuart: there's an awful lot of wealthy greenies out there contributing heavily, i believe. lauren: and the power of to incumbency. stuart: check futures, please, wednesday morning. here's how we're going to open, down for the dow, up a slight bit for the nasdaq composite. eddie ghabour here today. the fed decision comes about 2:00 this afternoon a, eastern. is jay powell going to a may a hard line, no rate cuts in the immediate future? is that what you see? >> i think he's going to take a more hawkish stance. but, look at the end of the day right now we have markets at all-time highs, china pump liquidity into the system, oil rallying and inflation showing no signs of really coming down.

so the worst thing they could do is start cutting rates. but unfortunately, i think he's going to dangle that carrot that they're still going to cut in june or july. so any dip on his press conference today, in our opinion, should be bought because the market does not believe he's going to do the right thing. rate cuts are not going to be bullish 6-12 months out because that's going to cause inflation to reaccelerate. the last thing you immediate to put stimulus into the economy is when inflation is hot, but they're going to ignore that, unfortunately, and more than likely make a mise step and cut too soon. stuart: it's going to be crazy watching the performance because the slightest nuance from jay powell will send prices up or down very, very quickly. i think it's going to be a period of intense volatility when the computers and the fed watchers try to figure out exactly what's going on. i wouldn't be investing this afternoon, would you? >> unless there's a big drawdown this the afternoon, i would buy. and we plan to if we get a big

drawdown this afternoon a because, again request, i think the volatility's just going to get bought. at the end of the day, the market doesn't believe they're going another the right thing. the right thing is to leave rates right where they are because we have too much debt, and and we need things to cool off. but they're not going to do that. it's an election year. stuart: okay, got it. eddie ghabour, see you again real soon is. thank you, sir. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: billionaire activist investor, nelson peltz, he says he's going to vote for trump. he called biden's mental condition really scary. good morning, todd. i'm surprised that a hard-bitten wall street guy would come out to forcefully for trump. >> i'm not, and the reason is you have to distance yourself from the wall street thing. he's viewing this election like so many people that are on the fence. one, very, very worried about joe biden's mental capacity. two, the litany of charges against trump are actually backfiring because they view it as a miscarriage of justice. and, third, the third thing that pelts said, degrading country right now because of what joe biden did at the border.

those three things are not just for billionaires, they're for everybody who's on the fence when it comes to this election who hasn't made their decision yesterday. that's why joe biden's in trouble and why he needs billions upon billions of dollars to try to craft a different message, because people see what a's actually happening out there, not just billionaires. stuart: the i was surprised nonetheless, but you felled it out correctly. good stuff. you're here for the hour. >> yes, sir. stuart: check futures, please. a little bit of red for the dow, down 50. a little bit of green for the nasdaq, up 24. kind of on hold waiting for the fed. coming up, ken o'leary went off on new york attorney general letitia james. watch this. >> this is an attack on america, and i don't know how you can look at it any other way, but we need an adult in the room now. this is the united states of america under siege. stuart. stuart: how about that? america under siege, question mark. we'll get into it, for sure.

america's producing a record amount of oil. that sounds like good energy policy to me. does alaska senator dan sullivan have a problem with record oil production in a biden administration? i'm going to ask him, he's next. ♪ -- and it's the oil, oil. ♪ ♪ ameritrade is now part of schwab. finish finish

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stuart: on the futures market, i see green for the nasdaq but only just. it's up 25 points. the dow is down 56. stock movement pretty much on hold waiting for the fed, got it. oil production hit a record level, 12.9 million barrels a day in america in 2023.

senator dan sullivan is, republican from energy-rich alaska, joins me now. mr. senator, to me, that looks like a success isful energy policy -- successful energy policy despite biden. nearly 13 million barrels a day for the year. what say you? >> well, it is successful, stu. again, by the way, good morning. it is the successful, but it's in spite of the biden administration's policies, not because of them. think about it. from day one this administration has been focused on shutting down the production of american energy particularly on public lands. that's a huge issue in alaska. delaying infrastructure like pipelines, pressuring financial institutions not to invest in the american energy sector. that the has been their policy. and now you see this latest policy that's going against the energy sector and our allies, and that's this so-called pause on lng perm permits. that's exactly the wrong policy

at the wrong time. american energy, as you and i have talked about a lot, stu, is one of our great strengths. and to call for a pause on the ec e ports of lng at this moment is a really bad policy. stuart: mr. senator, as i understand it, you were in europe recently attending a conference. >> yes. stuart: how did european leaders there, how do they feel about biden's freeze on liquified natural gas export permits? how do they feel? >> well, they're really angry about it. and i will tell you with, i met with senior european officials at the munich security conference, co-led a bipartisan delegation of senatorsover there, and that was one of the biggest things we heard which was, wait a minute. you, americans, have been telling us to get off russian oil and gas after the brutal invasion of ukraine. we are doing that. the germans, as you know, stu, two years ago the chancellor of germany told me they were 50% spent on russian natural gas --

dependent on russian natural gas for their power general ration. now it's zero, and a lot of that is because of american lng. these allies of ours were apoplectic about this new policy. and i'll tell you this, it's not just european allies, it's asian allies. i met with a senior asian official, i won't name the name, he called it an american betrayal of them. so is this is exactly the wrong policy. and what does it do? it drives our allies into the arms of our adversaries, russia, iran, qatar. they're all looking at increasing exports to them while we're looking at making american exports of lng a lot more uncertain. stuart: makes no sense unless you're a green -- >> makes no sense. stuart: if you're a green, it makes sense because they don't want any fossil fuels at all. certainly not made in america. that's the way it's. one more for you, mr. senator. you confronted biden's new i climate czar about security risks in biden's green agenda.

what security risks are you talking about? >> look, i sent a letter with a number of prominent republican senators yesterday to mr. podesta who is the key ark a text of this far- [laughter] or -- architect of this far-left policy, anti-energy policy, and we described exactly what their lng pause is doing. it's undermining american workers, it's undermining the strength of our economy, it's undermining our allies. and here's the other thing, stu, it's undermining the environment. you know, with the increase in american production of natural gas and the exports of american natural gas, we have been the leader, america, the leader in reducing emissions because of that. so this is a lose-lose policy. we wrote him saying you need to lift it right now. our allies are in agreement. and, with by the way, it's not just republican senators. i know a lot of democrat senators who agree with me on this as a well. this is a failed policy. it shows that the far left of

the democratic party is once again driving energy security and national security or policy for america. it makes no sense. stuart: you got i. dan sullivan, republican from the great energy state of alaska. thank you for being here, senator. >> thanks, stu. stuart: yes, sir, thanks. todd, what's this about a red estate attorneys general versus blue state attorneys general on the issue of methane from natural gas? >> yeah. this is literally as stark a contrast as you can get. this is all about the epa's rule which regulates emissions from fossil fuel facilities. last week 24 gop if states sued opposing the rule, but 20 the democrat ags filed a motion if in support of the rule calling it a baseless attack on efforts to attack climate change. who knows what will9ly come of these the lawsuits, but it just shows everything is political especially this time of year. stuart: methane, me-thane --

>> we say methane here in the united states. but it could be one of those things. lauren: this is hitting texas when they're down. you have given these oil and gas companies so many restriction, some of the wells are old, the infrastructure's old. the cost for them to keep up with these new regulations, tremendous. >> so what happens? lauren: close the well. >> they drive it away, oil production in our country goes down. evs not going to become more in demand -- lauren: that's the goal. stuart: that's the way it is. thanks, everyone. check futures again, please. we're coming up to the opening bell about 7-8 minutes away. dow up -- sorry, dow down 60, nasdaq up 32. the opening bell is next, and you'll see it. you'll hear it too. ♪ -- people in the world. ♪ and a million other places we could be -- ♪ but you're here with me. ♪ take a appointment just to take it -- moment just to take it in ♪

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stuart: all right. dow's down 50, nasdaq's up 40. that's the state of play, three minutes to go to wall street. shah ghailani's with us. why do bull markets make people feel uneasy? i feel uneasy at the moment. >> i think in general when we see a market move the way this has moved really since november, that gives pause to a lot of

investors or who don't understand that markets can go parabolic and do at times. and i think what's making investors e nervous is the fact that this is basically, this kind of trajectory for stocks and led by a smaller group, i think, than most of us would like to see. so that is frightening in terms of the economics of things. yeah, there's questions about valuations up here, for there are questions of whether or not the fed is going to cut this year, there are questions about whether inflation's going to remain sticky. all a kinds of questions out there make investors nervous. markets don't care about that. earnings, earnings, earnings, and so far they have been good as far as the leadership group, they have been great, and that's what the market is keying in on right now. stuart: you think we are still in a bull market, and it's not over yet. that's where you're coming from, right? >> we're just in the first leg of the new bull market, stu. i declared that back in july. but after a rough start to the year, things turned around and we started to break out again

all of a sudden. to me, that looks like the first leg of a new bull market, and we are firmly in that. we are, i hope, going to see some correction. i think, you know, i don't like to see markets go pair boll you can, so a correction -- parabolic, so a correction would be a healthy thing. but we are in this kind of mode where investors know it's buy the dip. all the great names, if you get an opportunity to buy them on a dip, everyone's going to buy them. so the dips, you know, starting back in 2009 when we had the great bull market, those dips became less -- they were 20%, they were 15%, 10, 5 then 3, and investors were buying 3% dips. we're going to, i think, get back to that. perhaps we'll get, you know, something unattractive and scary like a 10 dip, but has -- i promise you that's going to be a tremendous buying opportunity. stuart: what's the latest dip purchase that you've made? is it google? >> it's google. and google was down 15%, and google being one of the relationship companies -- leadership companies, certainly,

as far as a.i. narrative goes. it's got everything going for it. they made the mistake of the release of gemini. i think they know how to correct that, and they will. now the stock has been on a bit of a tear, and i think it'll likely continue to go higher. there's prospects that apple may license the gemini technology, the a.i. tech, and that will be huge. that would present another couple billion people in terms of exposure to google, and so i think that would do -- i think it would push it a lot higher. stuart: it's like the good old days, shah. we love it. shah ghailani, everyone. good stuff. the market is about to open. ring the bell, that means 10 seconds to go. then they push forward and push the button. away we go. overhanging the market today is what the federal reserve will say this afternoon. there'll be a speech by powell who'll make his comments. he'll be asked questions and how how he responds, the words he uses, the tone of voice he uses, that will imply whether or not he's going to cut rates in june

or ever. and it's all speculation. the fed watchers will have a field day today. that's the way it is. in advance of of that, maybe don't expect too much price movement. the dow has opened with a loss of 78 points. there are more sellers than buyers among the dow 30. the s&p 500 has also opened on the downside. i'm sorry, it's not. it's up .01 p. that's about as flat as you can possibly get. and the nasdaq, same story, it's up .20%. you don't have that much movement in the very early going, but watch out afternoon. we're going to show to you big tech, as we always do. alphabet, meta, amazon, microsoft up. apple down just 18 cents at $175. and then we have intel. man, did they get a boost from the white house. i think it's a $20 billion boost, isn't it, lauren? lauren: in grants and loans, yep. that is major. i'm a going to give you on the one hand and around now which you hate, but i have to do it. [laughter] so the u.s. does not produce a single advanced chip, not one

imported from a asia a, that's a problem. commerce department sees this is a problem, so they're using money from the chips act two years ago and finally, finally all this time later doling out $8.5 billion of the $20 billion in grants to intel. intel will speed up manufacturing in four different states where they have factories and and hire 30,000 jobs. that's great. should the government be calling the shots? that's my question. stuart: i don't have an answer for you. lauren: the other $11 billion, by the way, comes from loans that they're making to intel. and the ceo of intel, pat gelsinger, will join liz claman laterren to -- later on today. stuart: then you'll get an answer. take a look at bitcoin. it was $73,800 last week. now it's 63,2. how much value was stripped out of the cryptos? lauren: $400 billion in about a week's time. so bitcoin is volatile, we

always say that. on the upside but clearly on the downside too. i was speaking to a couple of bitcoin enthusiasts about these to moves. i mean p at one point bitcoin was down 15% in a few days and they said, look, it's usually 30. 15% is a drop in the bucket. one, anthony pompliano called bitcoin a lifeboat that you need to have in your portfolio. and others are saying, look, you have the fed overhang right now. no one knows what the fed is going to do, how they react to inflation, so risk assets are down today. stuart: $63,000 on bitcoin as we speak. all right. apple's chief executive, that's tim cook, he is in china. why is he in china? lauren: because they're opening new apple stores there tomorrow. there are reports that the iphone sales are down in china by 24% in the first six weeks of the year, so is it a good withwill trip? absolutely are -- goodwill trip. the last time he went, october. what happened then? the government told their workers, hey, use huawei phones. don't use the apple iphone.

but what if we have these reports of this potential partnership with google to make the a.i. iphone in let's just say tim cook is meeting with chinese officials, and and he says, welsh you know, we're talking to google, and we're talking to microsoft, and i know a great way that you can sell iphones in china because consumers can x out their ex-boyfriends in their pictures by texting a command on the phone or transcribing live videos or voicemails that are coming in another language. stuart: are you. implying some kind of deal because tim cook can get a. a.i. onto the iphone and into chai, is that what you're saying? lauren: he's going to entice them with artificial intelligence -- stuart: make your case. >> stuart the asked a very, very serious question, so i took my glasses off and listened to you. [laughter] stuart: i want to go to chipotle. that's a very expensive stock. just shy of $3,000 per share.

they've approved a 50for 1 stock is split. when does this happen, and what does it take the share price down to? lauren: the share price goes down to around $56, and when? june 26th, if it's approved by hair holders. a 50for 1 split is unusually large. it is the first time in chipotle's 30-year history that this is happening, because they want to make ownership more assess bl. -- accessible. chipotle's stock is up 72% plus in the past one year. it's not a tech company, it's not an a.i. company -- stuart: well, it's up 6% now on the grounds that when it splits, it'll come down to $56 a share, more acceptable to more investors. lauren: yep. stuart: that's why it's up now. just shy of $3,000. lauren: i said it's not a tech company, or but they have a.i. robots that prepare the guacamole. stuart: that does not make it an a.i. company by any means. [laughter] general mills reported before the bell this morning.

i'm thinking cereal. lauren: this is a company that is crediting weather. they said the cold weather kept folks eating at home, buying their cheerios, their betty crocker, their green giant. it's true, that's what they said on the call. their profits were stronger because they do have what's called pricing power. stuart: wasn't it the guy at kelloggs that said you should eat cereal for dinner because it's cheaper than meat? bone tech, the german company that part -- byron tech, what have they done? lauren: they had to write down a lot of their inventory that had previously been flagged by pfizer because not many people are get eking covid shots. weak guidance for 2024, stock down 7.5%. stuart: you got it. oh, jetblue. i know they're putting capacity, and i'm assuming that a's was they fly boeing planes. lauren: no, not one. they have at lot of airbuses there's the issues with the with

the pratt and whitmy engine on some -- whitney engine on some planes, so 6 are grounded, possibly 15 by december. this is coming from the "wall street journal." jett blue is cutting their less popular routes. five routes to fort lauder dale, nine to l.a., bogota, colombia, etc. that's what the journal is reporting, that they're prioritizing their strong routes when their number of aircraft is limited. stuart: $6 a share on jetblue. thanks so much. coming up, caitlin jenner or back backs a new york county's ban on transgenders competing in women's sports. roll it. >> you have to compete in the biological sex that you were born. this is critical to protecting the integrity of competition in women's sports. stuart: is there a difference between contact and non-contact sports? if caitlin general or will be here to answer the question later in the show. king charles and prince william were seen returning to

royal duties, kate middleton spotted visiting a farm shop with her husband. will these events put the health rumors to bed? a royal round-up which includes a new scandal coming up from. neil: sean. get ready for a bout of fed batching this afternoon, it's going to be excruciating. the betting is no rate cut now. the full story after this. ♪ i can feel the pressure, it's getting closer now ♪ the best advice i ever got was to invest with vanguard for my retirement. the second best? stay healthy enough to enjoy it.

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the call is free, the quote is free, and there's no obligation to buy. call or go online now, so the next time there's a power outage, your home powers up. power your life with generac. call or go online to request your free quote today. stuart: decision day for the fed. we're going hear from jay powell if around 2:30 eastern time this afternoon. edward lawrence is our ped watcher of the day. could -- fed watcher of the day. could we get a rate cut right before the election? that's the speculation. what a say you, edward?

>> reporter: politicized, i don't know. but the fed chairman says he looks at the data, and if the data says there should be a rate cut before the election, then there would be. but there is political pressure from democrats coming to this fed chairman. in a letter from about two dozen house and senate democrats, they said that the higher interest rates are squeeze ising the working people -- squeezing the working people. and senator elizabeth warren and sheldon whitehouse went farther that -- than that saying the potential that the interest rates may are remain too high for too long has halted advances in deploying renewable energy damages and delayed significant climate and economic benefits from these project. blaming the federal reserve. president biden on his west coast swing hinting there could be a rate cut. listen. >> first, for homeowners, inflation keeps coming down, and it's predicted to do that. mortgage rates are going to come down as well.

>> reporter: mortgage rates go with the interest rate cuts. some economists say the fed chairman cannot cut rates anytime soon. listen to this. >> you know, i wouldn't be cutting rates at all, to be honest. i'd let markets drive rates, i wouldn't drive them, you know? as i've talked about lots of time, the fed should be controlling its balance sheet and only its balance sheet, and it should be shrinking its balance sheet steadily, stably. >> reporter: the decision comes out at 2 p.m. today. we will also get the the federal reserve projections for if they see two, three rate cuts this year still. they're -- they've forecasted three, we'll see if that changes , and the projections for gdp as well as what else the economy is going to do towards the end of the year with. stuart: thank you, edward. we need an economist. we've got one. anthony chan joins us this morning. a lot of people on this show have been saying, look, no rate cuts at all this calendar year. what say you? >> i think that right now the federal reserve doesn't want to rock the boat.

they basically telegraphed they're going to cut rates three times but, in fact, inflation in the last two comes have been a little bit stronger, so i think that the base cases for the three cuts, but if the fed wants to somehow be data-dependent, not data-obsessive, then i think maybe two cuts. now, when will they do it? if they're going to low are or rates, they have to start in june, and i just wrote a piece on substack.com under the people's economist that basically look at the data. this is the not political. and what i find is that historically the federal reserve starts to cut rates for the first time when the average cpi headline number is about 2.6. we're at 3.2, so we're a little bit too high, and the unemployment rate around 4.7, dis, of course, we've got 3.9. so they're not there yet. but right now if there is an emergency of some sort, the fed does cut when those numbers are not completely compatible. for example, the global financial crisis and, of course, right before the pandemic. the numbers were out of sync, but the fed if still loweredded

rates. no rush today, no rush anytime soon, but maybe one rate cut in june, and if the numbers continue to come in stronger, don't do the three cut, do only two cuts. stuart: okay. let's see if that excites the market. stay there for a moment, please, anthony. progressives once again want to increase, raise taxes on the wealthiest americans. todd, this is the wealth tax by any other name, isn't it, from senator warren, isn't it? >> 100%, you nailed it. a group of progressive law make lawmakers led by, of course, the senator from massachusetts renewing the push and generating trillions upon trillions of dollars. this proposal would implement a 2% tax on households worth $50 million-1 billion and a 3% tax on households worth more than $1 billion. it would affect the wealthiest 100,000 households in our country, estimated it would generate $2.7 trillion over next decade. it also a includes, here we go, $100 billion to the irs for auditing and a 40% exit tax on people worth more than $50 million if they choose to dump

their citizenship to avoid paying taxes. i can never understand how any of these exit taxes are legal. it makes no sense. they should be challenged in court. even the other -- e yeah. stuart: but the wealth tax, that is unconstitutional. >> unconstitutional. stuart: they're taxing a profit which you've not yet with made. >> based upon the way they would do that,s yea. and an exit tax can't be legal. stuart: anthony chan, don't sit there and tell me there's something good about a wealth tax. >> well, stuart, right now we have a national debt of $34.5 trillion -- stuart: because we're spending too much. >> we are spending too much and, of course, as an economist, completely nonpartisan is, what i will say is i'm not -- i'm avenue ambivalent with regard to the wealth tax because we have a huge national debt. we've without to reduce it. but at the same time, i'm worried about the incentives, things that you're worried abou- stuart: well, i'm worried about the future. i'm worried about the future. >> it's related to -- stuart: -- hit people with $50 million or more, whatever the number is. that number will come down

because they have an insatiable appetite for tax revenue. >> well, stuart, i'm not worried about the level, i'm not even worried about what happens. i'm worried about the incentives. i want the economy to grow, and anything that kills incentives, wealth tax or any tax, in fact, if you ask me, i would prefer that taxes be zero for everything. i would prefer that the corporate tax would be zero, but we would have to adjust to that kind of an environment. in the environment we live, we need revenues. but at the same time, we have to be very careful, stuart, that we don't hurt incentives because if you do, economic growth goes out the window. if you look at -- i wrote another piece on wealth with inequality. it's getting worse and, by the way, i can't blame republicans or democrats. my nonpartisan study found that wealth inquality has gone up under both political parties. we've got to do something about it. stuart: i don't care. keep capital in the hands of people who will use it efficiently as opposed to a government who will spend it away. but we're out of time. >> of course. stuart: coming up, donald trump firmly has a firm grip on the

republican party. his candidate, bernie moreno, won big in ohio. president biden won all the democrat primaries, but he's dogged by written-ins -- write-ins who want something else i'll give you my take, top of the hour. the clock's ticking for trump to come up with $454 million, that's his bond in his civil fraud case. if he doesn't pay by monday, new york attorney general letitia james could start going after his properties. the latest on that next. ♪ many would you pay e my if rent. ♪ would you, would you, would you pay my rent? ♪ there are many ways to do things. at old dominion freight line, we do them this way.

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stuart: trump has until next monday to come up with that massive $454 million bond in his civil fraud case. if he can't get the money, attorney general lee letitia james could try and seize his properties. lydia a hu has the story. lydia, why hasn't trump been able to secure the money yet? >> reporter: trump's money is tied up in reality, and -- real estate, and he's tried to offer real estate as collateral to roughly 30 insurance company, and his daughters say they -- his lawyers say they won't take that as collateral. multiple people tell us the

companies are possibly worried about other issues like investor or public backlash. the insure iser es call it headline risk, something that could create a negative reaction for the company, and one bond expert says the polarization of donald trump fits that bill. listen to this. >> the former president is a former president who's currently running for, you know, election. that in itself would make him a headliner political risk. it's somebody that everybody seems to have a strong opinion for whether you're for or against. >> reporter: now, insurance company chub learned this hard a way after it posted a $92 million appeal bond in donald trump's defamation trial with e jean carroll. the ceo, evan greenberg, was forced to defend that move in a letter to investors writing this: i fully realize how polarizing and emotional this case and the defendant are and how easy it would be for chub to just say no. however, we support the rule of

law and our role in it, we consider the right thing to do, and we frankly left our own personal feelings aside. now, stuart, as the time ticks down to this deadline for the bond, there are a couple of developments we're waiting for. trump still has time to possibly post that bond, raise the capital. the court could possibly agree to a lesser amount. we'll see. stuart. stuart: got it. i wonder if he gets the money. you're not supposed to say this, but only time will tell. >> reporter: it's true. stuart: what do you think about this, todd? >> i'm just surprised there isn't some individual who's a very pro-trump guy, doesn't care about the ramifications, has what we call finishing-u money, df-u money. i expect that's going to next stage in all of this because there are a lot of rich people who with really like trump. stuart: but isn't there a hearing to get that bond reduced to, say, $100 million? >> right. but where's that? right down the street in new york. do you think they're going to get their fair shake? i don't think trump can get a

fair shake with anything in this city or state. stuart: lydia, thank you very much, indeed. and if you too, todd. thanks for joining us. still ahead, karl rove. are you tired of working out? well, there could be a pill for that. a new study found that a pill could replace some of the benefits of exercise. how healthy is that, sports fans? we have a doctor here. with biden has under the against israel's prime minister, netanyahu. is our foreign policy subject to domestic political concerns like the vote in illinois? former governor of arkansas mike huckabee on that. and the summer olympics just months away. is there going to be a controversial race where a trans-woman wins the gold? caitlin jenner responds. the 10:00 hour of "varney & company" is next. ♪ give me a sign. ♪9 hit me, baby, one more time. ♪ oh, baby, baby, the reason --

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