but that does not have this and because retails in stock you don't get the monday pop. >> of these amazing giving them an opportunity to be in it we are talking about this just make on their also driving the products and so without them, the product would not really be the project it is today so they getting a piece of an ascetical seen a quickly robin had the same thing and it was terrible. they lost the first day. >> will hear we have it and kelly o'grady thank you so much any check in your money in stocks are while the dow and s&p 500 have, hitting new highs after the blowup strong earnings reports and you can see the nasdaq is leaving 3 percent almost. >> animal spirits irrational exuberance in one of their. >> that's mccall. >> animal spirits, yes animal spirits and innovation. >> when we asked charles payne and making money just start now. charles: you just started engine

answered it making money is what we call good afternoon everybody i am charles payne this is making money, so yesterday, they sit and video was the most important stock well today, this certainly is, it is looking feels like a rock concert in the company ceo said that a.i., is just in the tipping point. but not as if he had in got a special guest with a very dire warning meanwhile, get a hand today from the three stooges on hound monetary policy really works asked to brilliant press how much of the cut and fun and games in continuing plus folks nail how financial buzzword, is normalizing, the heck does that mean an one is a normalize look like will find out today and plus there must be - summer because now the monitors disappear just like the stock mirrors something does not feel right at all of it is so much more, on making money.

summa goodness gracious great balls of fire, kelly, they knocked to the cover off of the ball, wall street is celebrating and check this out, here's the arctic some of the meat revenue and gaming visualization, auto gross profits in gross margins and operating income and operating margins earnings-per-share and free cash flow and meet on everything that's mccall mind-boggling rock and here's the thing go, when this first came out you've got this sort of major move this talk given company these limited is this appraiser, the proclamation of the companies had a tipping point, that a.i. itself is headed tipping point when that happened, the afterburners one and this went up even more, the question courses you know, what is that

right, because initially can be confusing tipping point, i mean is that the top of us have, what apparently is a tipping point as described by gladwell and the become of point in the great book by the way if you've not read it in the tipping point is that magic moment, when an idea printed or social behavior crosses a threshold and tips and spreads, like wildfire, this would were talking about. the way speaking wildfire in this crazy, did you see the activity yesterday, off the charts are over 70000 calls with a 1300 start price and apparently like a week ago, and since each is so all-around, there is a big move in this market and particularly with these you know a.i. names. >> conductor names is brought back with equally risk appetite. it out just by giving seven you can see this is a big big move and risk appetite of them, there's a school of thought other than things maybe this is not such a good thing, listen to my gotta tell you something that when you asked me, he started it into a rock all concert all of

the shows over right, you're going to get ny the getting is good and so this market as a dreamland - 52 it feels good, but for how long dragon chief of market strategist and getting, listen, is not just a video right, but a lot of sucks have made these double-digit a single session moves over the last couple of weeks and so you cool with this. >> you know what, i am a little bit nervous about it and i'm kinda cool with it because it is the a.i. face this a.i. revolution that is happening, the changing the world and is going to change the world you just look all around us every day what is happening in terms of people in how using it and whether using it we didn't even talk about elon musk in the role of a.i. and triple play and then full business, which is hold another conversation we can have and so it is exciting. i think would happen so is that he feel like it is getting out of control. that's where you just have to be

careful right, you have to we cannot let your emotions get so much of you that you just spin out of control and go with it and you have to have some financial mental control over how it's acting. >> was a group of people doing a by focusing on other things, not just of the moving them market. charles: pretty smooth folks out there they say that overall, the economy for instance, the growing calls now for stake inflation no calls for recession paying attention to the kind of stuff. >> absolutely yes, you have to pay attention to the picture you cannot just focus on you know one sector and then ignore everything else and so you have to think the whole thing and you and i have talked about this most of the position because of my age right i am not 30 years also do have four years ago and i'm a baby boomer and so am much more concerned especially now, about the assets and protecting them and having them were congruent so that does include,

the value names consumer stable names, and insurance. things that are not may be so, things that will provide stability. charles: i solicit three names that you like now the bill right so technology, isabel, the semi conductor powerhouse name, united health as they can come your afternoon, and j.p. morgan in the kitchen into the financials we have diversified portfolio to do and ask you about also because i know this individual liked a lot they have kimberly time yesterday and today, you added to that. >> well so i don't own palo alto yes, it's always very expensive and i think that yesterday's move, the way that they took it down and he came through the short-term the medium-term, the came right down and they sat on long-term is down 20 percent was without was way over reaction and i'm looking at it well i think that right and here is going to turn a little bit night and that they had space where you move like that coming gotta

give it two or three days, to see how it settles tennessee were goes to see if it holds the move and if he doesn't thank you so a screening by. charles: believe is either very your ability is sort of blending in with your stockpicking and right give it a little bit of time right you good cooking does not happen overnight and kind of let it simmer about. >> it has to marinate a little bit right and actually cover that goes without esau, they have drastic of downdrafts like that, you moves and you have to let it play out for couple of days and so your best to sit back and watches. charles: getting race at fermanagh talk to you again soon. >> always a pleasure. charles: winning scale that i think the tongue-in-cheek of the video, that is sort of a - newmarket i want to bring in capitol seo and so between you put out history and nvidia please the earnings also the world will not collapse la and

maybe there's some truth to it and i know you're being a little bit we joke little bit that golly, can you believe that the hotel stock is happening and having today. >> i am so happy that not only did they beat expectations but they wildly beat expectations like earnings 600 percent year-over-year revenue was up 400 percent year-over-year growth rates like this that a company this large in a very long time and on target prices, are going up across the board on wall street is sexy is working hundred this year. i think what is happening, and by the stock is really nasdaq and all of the text is that the world is waking up to the fact that this is not just blue, the a.i. swimming cycle is not just a few months or a few years, this is a multi- decade spending cycle that is unfolding before our eyes probably the biggest one you will ever seen throughout her lifetime.

and this is why the market is happy and not just nvidia coming as you go back a few weeks ago, all the tech stocks was a beat microsoft amazon will be done earnings that if you look at the broad market, so the other socks, is 82 percent of the sox have reported earnings and earnings are up 40 percent year-over-year and so forth consecutive quarter the earnings increased year over year and so things are good she felt there. >> we put it this way, as of this board and cimino's but we should've put happy because you just coined it right the investors are happy and just nvidia but the earnings is been phenomenally mature be quite is taking off stock market, new highs beget new highs about some of the embarrassing down a bit because you do have their cycles cycles as you mentioned the fed inflation layoffs are increasing in the consumer maybe so so, global recession and you can japan and japan is 35 -year-old

time i and is either selling. and all of these though they don't come anywhere close in my mind, and talking the other positives off right, they still outweigh these don't they. >> they do, but the entire market sort of waiting for nvidia, to not be the earnings la started to say looking into it to be the reason why the prophets going to be so often so now, were all kind looking units other think what is new thing to worry about, he wants to be caught of guard was about a part was on my radar screen, and more recently, they accelerated the insider seller jeff pazo's sold $8.5 billion with memphis on stock of us to besmirch zuckerberg half a billion in the last few months, but insider selling the something was from a foundation bill gates foundation hundreds of millions of dollars worth of stocks in one buffet the training is apple position had power palpitations about but the big think that i think we need to focus on this are

getting enough attention is the financial system and what is happening with commercial real estate. so commercial real estate in the united states is in big trouble predict delinquency rates have tripled in 2023 now just this week, the fdic came out and said that of the u.s. banks, major u.s. banks ratios arnaldo the thing amount of delinquent commercial real estate so something to really keep an eye on. >> monitored with the audience, human adding to j.p. morgan, microsoft, and solid names sway stuff in your were just as better and better thank you is been too long. >> see you soon were going to continue to focus on nvidia, look at this, having this is mind-boggling of 15 percent of her 100 points, and guest is coming up, who really has very dire warning you gotta take over the sky is credited with sniffing out one of the biggest investment scams anybody hear what he has to say next.

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charles: only knew like everybody's getting tricky over themselves of the latest target is 1400 and nvidia and maybe 1500 before the show was over but there's one person on wall street expert, the pro is not taking a big boat toby - hedge fund chameleon, global capitol management said that this really is far out of outcome of any analysis of the company's discounted cash flow, and literally anything can happen toby, welcome to show and you're a man out of the wilderness. [laughter] [laughter] everybody is saying, this is ed and everybody's got into it, and it is a i is here to say this is the beginning. >> hi charles. in the first that i should say is that we do have a position either way in this together start, just make that clear.

not all of this year, and the second think that i should tell you about as we did last week, which we wrote about to investors in a letter which for whatever reason when viral now have 100 friends on linkedin hundred thousand because whatever reason that it touched a nerve, and so, what we did presently real doubt something from her dusty covered dcf, and precisely, the reverse dcf. over the reason the numbers are coming up and there is a lot of dopamine flying around the markets and a lot of people buying zero - collections and people comparing the stocks in the ceos with mom-and-pop stores and brackets into swift just kind of an alarming level of hyperbole and every excitement probably.

and so i am sure you know how dcf works and what it is for and so forth. and there's so incredibly popular with product firms and they use them to work out what has to happen if you by the start today in order for you to make money five or ten years down the line. charles: discounted cash flow. >> yes. charles: i dcf bill of each of in a second, we don't have a lot of time by the way want to let the audience know little bit about your background in your credit card with me one of the first about the first to see the rise of the fall of the wire corridor long people here do not know german techie, champion pretty considerably on germany use into the fraud long before anybody else pretty suggesting there's run your receipt number so matchup with the - rise in

the stock. >> okay, so if you do a reverse dcf what you do is look at today's share price look at the assumptions for ten years, in order for today shared price to make sense. so we did that exercise and what has to happen i think it was a 740 before thing over the last few days before the rally today. essentially where we are now. and the excise tells you that what has to happen i dcf basis revenues have to group 27 percent for the next ten years, compound annual growth rate and get you around 600 billion into your time at the same time, the event marches with committee have to be 55 percent which is where they are now recording for them by the way for ten years and okay so if we have record margins 27 percent micro tenures used a 10 percent discount rate which

is pretty standard into any of growth rate versus standard what you get you get 740 okay and so the reason we think that's interesting that if you compare that to the last in years and probably most people don't know the answer is that they did 22 percent growth rate not 27 to 22 okay and the average ebit margins of the time with 25 percent which is half of the 55 we have to put in to justify today's share prices as of the point is, making a call coming like a summer but involved in stock right now, but there order to justify today in order to justify today our observation is you have to assume the growth rate of the last ten years, accelerates from 22 percent up to 27 percent emergence double estate there if you look closely the people's research and wall street get everybody's research related a lot all day long what you will notice is a lot of them have problems forecasting beyond

25. charles: units will be coming when you believe there, and it is really a great insight and i think that is right for people out there before they buy, principally at these levels to understand whether - arc because nobody is talking about the risk side of this and i appreciate you sharing some of your knowledge with us and thank you very much. >> no worries is pfizer. charles: olivos, so can you guess what larry and curly and both have in common the federal reserve while we have a classic clip, connected heaven right after this. (player 1) what? (luke) like a percentage, if you had to guess. (players) hey, get out of here man. get off the field. (luke) understood. (players) security! grab him! (marci) great student-teacher ratio... (luke) marci! we've got to go! marci! we have got to go! we bring you the real, in-depth school info. (marci) what were you thinking? (luke) i don't know. i. don't know. (vo) ding dong! homes.com

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>> 's we get money how about the 20 bucks you will make. >> oh yes my only intent while you're senile i'll be attending a ♪ ♪ meal me 20 monkey walkers $10 all you did dollars guilty ten is a 10-dollar bill that they argue. >> is a ten i/o use been a good good, then we are all even. charles: affect the back was not hard to think about the famous yet from this three stooges when we think about federal reserve just banks is worth a great kelly ready. kelly: why do we see it work like that but i'll people money. he wants out and makes you think of the effort by the company to slow down the economy by draining money from it right the try to do with her higher interest rates and mortgage-backed assets and finally allowing those that they do want to mature and so on people this should resolve the economy, but it is not to the

degree advertise one reason is reverse repurchase you great to sell a security buyback at a fair price the reverse repo, puts money back out there and somebody this, okay a part of two and half trillion, the banks parking the fed has becoming a rapid pace the reverse part of this week and it occurred at a faster pace than the fed has been drawing down his balance sheet is been going down more than this is not right there in the numbers behind to come you got back directly, you know summer of 2022 to salinas about a reverse bet and balance sheet only go by 1.3 trillion and so more money going up and coming back in that right here you see the liquidity, that the fed was actually supposed to bring is on the rise again and go but it okay so then there is that late october victor free thought, the pivot the fed was all excited about and only when the investors watching this over the consumers and you look this up

and spike your, people started to get optimistic but the current and future financial situation now is dealing with a rebound and key inflation data and so this, this is the cpi equivalent of the vcc foreclosures inflation about energy housing codes, genuine, month over month right, it started increasing again and so that means inflation is stickier the fed once it all by the consumer is really good and on top of that, task of bringing on inflation is also been tossed because of the physical cash and cash that continues into the economy on painted and remember though, milton friedman said, inflation is a monetary phenomenon and is made to behind or stopped by the central bank charles means the buck stops with the company so we go from the stooges, although we do or friedman. charles: you do cover it all and guess what, only susan thank you so much kelly appreciate it and

uncovered 24 they said they cannot cover a stress another month chief economist daniel and, it seems like the cannot cut rates as fast as the fed once either right where the fed minutes yesterday we know governor show was saying is certainly not the time to do the right kind sick as i was even like the old what are your thoughts. >> absolutely charles, you're absolutely right, the fed is caught between a rock and a hard place on the one hand, you have the real estate problems and commercial real estate lending out of the other hand, you have very hot super court inflation. daniel: in the cut rates in this environment the same time, the cracks are starting to appear the economy and the gross domestic income showed a negative print in the last number consumer confidence is only improving because expectation of lower inflation

however, the inflation does not to come down you keep printing money, you keep the liquidity and at the same time, the government gets another two and a half trillion of deficits in the latest deficit number is astonishing. charles: to pick up on that so that we just heard from kelly many are saying the last couple of weeks especially that when the reverse repo pool runs out in brent's right which could probably be sometime this summer, things like the banking banking and housing, that was supposed to crack, i would have a new could how worried should we be. daniel: we should be concerned because we have the warning signs of there, we see that the delinquency rates are increasing we are also seeing significant worsening quality of the availability and so now the debate on the market, is about

the weather will be rate cuts rate hikes that is not what really matters and what really matters is will be of any supply or not. as shown in the graph, there has been a complete offset the reduction for the reverse repo liquidity. when he supplies back against was virtually impossible for the fed to see positive development in inflation with money supply going again was what it is you cannot basically just reduce inflation, hoping for the best singing john lennon songs, you need to cut money supply if you cut money supply or the way in order to bring the inflation down to 2 percent, the troubles in the banking sector troubles the commercial real estate sector, may cause a domino effect in the overall economy

and it's an election year. charles: have less than a minute to go so, narrow down this answer but, estate plan monahan bank of america was talking use the word normalization and he said, people thought just to the mortgage rates in the word normalization i keep hearing everybody uses, kcal uses it a lot what is normal when we supposed be pushing for because the bill is ominous. >> what everybody should be really for hire for longer, because welcome to the land with 3 percent inflation which means the interest rates for consumers and interest rate mortgages have going to be significantly higher so everybody needs to started to think the no an awkward to see a much lower level for the mortgages in a significantly higher level of greater availability and certainly for

the housing market, certainly for credit in consumption, those two elements are very significant and so hard for longer, that's what people need to be aware of. charles: thank you very much my next guest said the goldilocks and two key assumptions and when the economy pulls an orderly fashion and inflation gradually move the sand into the present hundred the fed is another one ring is emi lg i am america head of u.s. - income strategy and personal marginal. >> sweetest see you. charles: the speak about the conversation we have had and so it's very confusing time right you know you have them talk about normalization j powell talk about normalization and make the point hire for longer and for a while that was bogus and went away and you know i forget hire from overcome a soft landing, just like that, when yields were they are now coming some of the things and considerations, reducing his

normalization gone; think hire for longer something that is here in the states, we do think that that is when he can recent 2024 not six times oh yes and exactly you look at the markets out, the market was essentially pricing in almost 170 basis points and costs and they've now parroted back there expecting 80 basis points of cuts which better lines with with the fed is pointing out in summary of economic projections, and we think it's realistic but there is risk of re- acceleration in inflation sue and last year your base case was session and is still a possibility category. >> yes exactly and fueling the unconditional probability of a recession any given year, from 50 percent and we certainly 1515 that's what we would certainly save the risk of a downturn is higher than that. but charles him really if you look at it, the old philosophy that the facts of the ground changeable we must update our investment thesis that that is what we been doing right of the

last six months on the facts on the ground have changed and if you look at the gdp the second half of last year, 4.9 percent and 43, 3.3 q4 and tracking 3 percent in q1 financial conditions to visually second this sound like a visualization, soft landing. >> yes exactly is very high growth is starting to do celery but certainly far from the recession typo, the growth and financial conditions heaviest a significantly so we see the ingredients for the economy to avoid a downturn that we not completely disagree best and it. charles: this environment you might credits to acquiesce of corporate credit, we do not vertically think the spreads are attractive but what we've seen in the last 12 months or investors are treating asset class is a yield play as opposed to spread play and if you look at the existing yields right now it is really to hire end of the spectrum last ten years unsecured eyes credit is another sector that we not do diversify

away from corporate credit and lastly we do think that tenure tips, breakeven and run 2.3 percent we think that's relatively cheap insurance get a real acceleration's had to inflation. charles: is great to see you anthony i folks market an all-time high but is he getting top here and they been around the block a few times and is going to actually sure the case right after this.

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charles: my next guest the firm a target on video, 40 from 700 and now the analyst did not go to lunch because they might that i could begin before the days of earth, no chief investment strategist sam lived to you, hannah may listen, there's a stock of sort of in the same space right the supermicro computer of 200 bucks a day you were around about the tech bubble and obviously comparisons are being made to what was if you like to you because can argue for like 19971998 right now. sam: hey charles is good right seen by the way you're looking sharp and yes, i was around back

then it was back in 1987 as well yes, you do tend to worry about stepping on landmines right now, within video being of 15 percent today, we wonder if her approaching some like that but i'm reminded that the pe, a 12 month earnings for the tech. charles: i cannot believe it okay, we're going in out of hopefully we get in there because, one thing we love about sam is unthinkable most people do things the chart yesterday, that's one and cisco, summa know your back that i was sharing with the audience, yesterday is the chart of cisco, which was a poster child of the wealth of the tech bubble and video right now, the source are identical and of course, and cisco went to a freefall i never recovered so those of the things that you are dealing with you bringing up the facts now and so ♪ ♪ floor. sam: what you simply them coming you know without interruption at this point is so, basically back

in 2000, we were training out about 60 times forward earnings and today tech is that about 30 times and so, yes, i think that we are bumping up against the ceiling and tech i don't necessarily think that word when we have to go through a major revision evaluations right and granted we had a new all-time high for the first time in january of this year and the advances usually about 5 percent before digesting a lot of those games. this basically where we are right now. so in the near term, not be surprised at all if we do digest some of these gains but i think that for all of 2024, you want to make sure that your buying those steps rather than billing. charles: i love that so here's the thing, right and you know that eventually you say the market investors how about a broader guilt. we started the year 90 percent of the s&p changing hands of above the 50 day moving average and only 62 percent is not

broadening out sam. sam: what it was broadening because we got to the point where 95 percent of the s&p 1500 industries there on the 150 of them, were training about their 50 day moving average and that was overbought, we now are going through digestion phase of that sort. we are still above average in terms of the percent of other day percent of other 200 day, the percent above both of those indicators. so i do not think that we at a point just yet, which we would say that it's time to really back up the truck. but i do think, that you want to make sure that you are properly exposed to because this will likely be a stronger-than-expected market for all of 2024. charles: less than a minute to go to three stock ideas air not sure if it's a coincidence or if this is new way picking soft with ale begin with stock symbols, back back back american

express .com, amazon, and i like the way that you balance coming of a financial who tech name in the consumer name there. as of the be looking to do though, so focusing on the balance in portfolios cfo, yes, i think so yes the takers all start with the a's which were letter grades that i never got a college but that's all right. and american express we think this is a company that will benefit from having high already consumers and if the capitol one and discover mergers and the question, they could help american express .com is likely to be one that we think will be a major winner from the a.i. infrastructure broom and then ask your amazon, they just added to the dow jones industrial average and additional exposure combined with durable will take your profiting cash flow story. charles: gentlemen seat college from late in life not a bad

combination talk to you again real soon be three look forward to i think usually. charles: where in the heck out of monitors and wanted to go we have about a girl coming up, with us and she's going to write down and if this is sort of a red or even a yellow flag, because well we will be right back.

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and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. charles: well, my next guest says that higher cpi shows that rates volatility will remain elevated. joining me now, head of fixed income strategy. i want to begin with this, with this, the bond market in general because i was looking at the jpmorgan treasury bearish sentiment gauge, that's near zero. i'm a contrarian at heart. is this a red flag overall? >> well, not really, charles. it really depends what kind of maturity you are looking at and

you are invested in. you see inflation has dropped closer to 2% compared to where it was one year ago. the federal reserve is telling us that it is going to begin to cut rates before inflation hits the 2% target, and that should be bullish for u.s. treasuries. and, therefore, it makes sense to expand the bond portfolio integration. but, charles, i just want to pick the example of the 10-year u.s. treasuries, that if you buy today at 4.3% and you assume one-year holding period, if yield withs move up to 5.3%, you're going to lose 2.5%. but if there is a downturn and yields drop to 3.3%, you are going to make 12%. so the 10-year makes sense in

terms of risk and reward. what doesn't really make sense is to take additional duration risk going beyond the 10-year tenor. charles: so last year though, maybe october even earlier, around that time, i had a lot of guests who came on and said, okay, we're going long tlt, agg. and, you know, they're not doing too well. and, again, we've come down. the bond market is sort of living up to that a old, i don't know, maybe it's the bond vigilantes. i'm not sure what's going on, but the old canary in the mine sort of thing. they haven't responded the way stocks have, the excitement. what do you think the bond market sees though that maybe other markets, particularly the stock market, doesn't see? >> well, i just believe that there is a lot of hype on the ultra-long part of the yield curve. i still believe that ultra-long duration remains a bet, a bet on

these inflationary trends, a bet on an aggressive interest rate cut cycle which, if they don't materialize, it means that a yields will continue to rise. and let's not forget, charles, that in the second is quarter of this year the u.s. treasury is preparing to sell an avalanche of issuance, around $1 trillion, levels that we have seen during the covid pandemic -- charles: right. >> -- when we had quantitative easing. charles: right. to that point, we had an auction yesterday. foreign buyers dipped under 60%. you know, the tail was a record. no one's paying attention to any of this. so earlier you said, okay, the 10-year yield, really good risk-reward if you want to hold it for a year, but overall it feels like who's going to buy, who's going to ping all of those bonds that our treasury's going to issue, the bonds, the notes

and all the issuance? if where do do the buyers come from? >> well, i'm telling you, first of all, who's not going to buy them? which is foreign investors. you see the example out there is japanese investors said they hold approximately 15% of u.s. treasuries outside the united states. and if they buy 10-year u.s. treasuries at 4.3% and they hedge it against the japanese yen, they will secure a yield of if -1.2%. and in the same is for european investors. charles: right. >> if you buy 10-year treasuries today secure 2.8%, and investorrer to buy european sovereigns at home which can yield up to 4% if they look at the terrorist friday. charles: right. -- periphery.

so paging jerome powell, no one else has those deep pockets. al think ya, thank you very much. i love what you told us about the 10-year yield, the racening -- risk-reward. i didn't get it before but now i do. thank you,. >> thank you very much, charles. charles: all righty. perhaps the first course in traditional investing management 101 is assessing equity risk premium, right? you want to determine -- we just had this conversation about bonds. the risk that owning bonds -- stock, rather, over bonds, erp. well, take a look at this because the erp is now at levels, we're talking dot.com era levels. joining me now, main street asset management chief investment officer erin glibs. -- everyone gibbs -- erin gibbs. the risk-reward just isn't there. you just heard a good case for owning a 10-year bond, but it's harder to argue owning stocks is

the are risk worth with it right now. >> i think we really want to break down whichs asset classes when we're talking about stocks, because i know with that chart a lot of that weighting is with those mega caps and the super large caps and less so when it comes to some of your smaller and mid caps. so i agree that, you know, if you're just doing broad index, fine, but i do think there are lower risk and better values within as you move down into those hidden gems, those smaller cap stocks. charles: right. >> but, look, just because the premium is high doesn't mean it's going to change in the next month or two months. charles: right. >> and so we don't have a call or any real immediate signal saying this is going to happen right away. charles: the bottom line is be aware of it -- >> right. be ready to rotate and and quickly when those signals start coming in, but the signals aren't there just yet. charles: speaking of being aware of signals, this 10-year is creeping back up. it was supposed to be under 4 by

now. it's creeping back up. what happens when it gets near 4.7, 4.8, 5? could it get back that high? >> you know, i believe so. and cha's -- what's interesting is we see that trend just around christmas of last year. so as it was falling, that's when we saw the small and mid caps outperform since then we've really seen the mega caps return, our new safety stock, the 21st century safety stocks. i think as long as that trend is there, we're going to see the flight to large caps, mega caps, again, making that premium very high, the equity risk premium. and until we see a big shift, and we know that's going to happen. i meaning we know eventually -- charles: eventually. i can't let you go, because you already teased us about the gems, you always have one. [laughter] what's ooh your gemming of the week? >> i love it. so today is bell ring. charles: bell ring. >> bell ring ad premium, it is a

protein bar and protein powder, protein shake maker. and it makes premiere protein bars and powders. it's also the protein powder inside the power bars. so they have amazing distribution. 16 long-term growth, good valuations -- 16%. i know you've never heard of it -- charles: i know, but i eat protein bars. i've been lifting, i'm back in the gym. i'm going to check the label. [laughter] you always find these. i love it though. earp, thanks a lot. all right, folks, it's been a crazy day, a wild day, and it all began in the last hour of trading yesterday. the markets made a huge reversal. i think it has something to do with liz clay liz claman who's going to take you through the next hour. liz: oh, the pressure's on. charles: it's on. liz: 60 minutes left to trade, let's mark the exact move in nvidia shares. we've put it e on the lower bug at the bottom of the screen.