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tv   Cavuto Coast to Coast  FOX Business  February 7, 2024 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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good run of luck, on the run. stuart: not bad. >> i will take the only other sports the middle one, set, number 2. lauren: set in place, that kind of stuff. i've got a few seconds to pad this out. i get something, got it, going with get anyway. what the answer? according to the oxford english dictionary there are 430 definitions set. that's interesting. . 430. ashley, see you again tomorrow. coast-to-coast starts now. 3, 2, one.
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neil: thank you very much. the s&p 500, we are getting close. it's not just because of the soft landing that's looking more real or confidence in the housing market looking very real or corporate earnings turnaround is looking very very real and it's not just because it is jerome powell saying this. maybe it is because powell isn't the only one saying this but virtually every fed governor or district president, every single one of them is saying the same thing. as if on cue, on point and on message. all reading from the same thing and setting the markets the same message. that message is this. quit focusing on when interest rates come down and focus on an economy that's moving up and a soft landing that seems like more than that. they are trying to point to the half full glass. are you drinking? tim anderson on whether he is buying.
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what are you doing on this? >> reporter: not only is the market on the precipice of a major milestone of 5000 for the s&p 500 which a year ago was unthinkable but the fed is right on the verge of winning the war against inflation. in the statement a week ago they didn't say they needed better inflation data. they needed more of the same, more data like they got over the last six months. as the data comes up for the next few months, the higher inflation months from 10-11 months ago fall off the 12 month moving average and it is inevitable the rate will come down, the annualized rate will
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come down from 2.92.722.5, then the fed will be able to say by, certainly by mayor, we see 2%, right around the corner, more comfortable with a cut here. stuart: that is the goal to get back to that. a lot of americans are into buying this, retail sales, a lot of that activity is strong. do you expect that continuing to be the winner the market's back? >> reporter: we have to wait and see how this plays out. it is inevitable the fed will cut once before the mid-deca of the year, whether it is march which does not seem unlikely, or may which seems better than 50/50. they are guiding strongly as you pointed out in your opening statement in that direction.
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all the members that are speaking this week. neil: normally i don't like to weigh in on politics, discussing the markets this much ahead of the general election. donald trump did by saying much of the activities in anticipation of going back to the white house and all the good news that will bring to investors. >> i think people who are favorably disposed to him may think that, may believe that. the reality, we saw farouk q3 gdp, the first look at q 4 gdp, the government spending is up, it will continue to be strong and the first half of this year. the reason is simple, we are in a presidential election year.
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neil: that was very definitely handled. i liked the way you answered that. thank you. >> have a great day. neil: all of this is occurring with distressing bank news. new york community bancorp shares falling a little more than 10%, 12% after moody's got the credit rating to essentially jump. this sees limited spillover in the regional bank so a lot of people are saying this is déjà vu all over again. didn't we go through this a year ago? the form he fdic's share, this might be an isolated incident, some folks go back to what you were deftly handling to prevent it spreading. what do you make of that?
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>> reporter: real estate is a problem. there's expansion or, with regional and smaller banks. interest rates are a factor, this is more about changes in this yearly market that shift remote work, with increased office vacancies, lower rents, interest rates are a factor for those who refinance this year. they have trouble meeting higher rates, they may just walk away. it was primarily last year which they've known about for some time, and provisioning against it but this would not be a big crisis.
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neil: that could be the case here, with regional midsized ranks, there would be a sort of cutting and merging one to another, bigger banks happened last year, not in large volume. what happens this year? >> when banks look for investments. there's additional consolidation. among regional banks to get bigger by acquiring regional banks. there will be more consolidation the, we need regional banks. they are an important lender to small end businesses, they provide some competition but this is something we want to preserve.
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neil: the question is do you need as many, we don't know what the magic number is. let me get your review of whether banks in general, i'm covering a wide territory, they are not at all the same position they were at the time of the meltdown, they are in better shape. do you by that? >> yes i do. there's more capital in the system. in 2008, this is a big bank phenomenon. commercial and investment banks, larger banks were undercapitalized and that had implications. we are dealing with smaller institutions but even if a few fail this year it won't have a system, nothing like we had in 2008. stuart: you have advanced, you're a best-selling author
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but you've branched into kids books and you have a couple under the daisy bubble label. one in particular. price crash on galapagos and another talks about the money wizards. are you out to warn kids of something sinister? >> no, but i went kids and families to read with their children and understand there are downsides to easy money. another has been speculative bubbles so these are real risks so i think it is important on the speculation inside. teenagers unfortunately, younger boys, even at an early age start being attracted to crypto and some of these investment opportunities i want to warn them about. there are bad side effects to easy money you want people
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including kids to understand early on. neil: where were these books when my kids could have benefited, very good at spending, not so good the other way around. good seeing you. chad, chad pergram on capitol hill, they are getting their act together and do something about what is happening. can you hear us? >> reporter: the senate likely will kill the border security package later this afternoon. chuck schumer is trying to start debate on a bill that helps israel and ukraine. schumer is forcing the vote to start debate on that later on. >> the bottom line is to speak for majority of republicans in the house want to do ukraine, want to do is real and we hope if we pass it in the senate the house would rise to the location. the house is in chaos. it doesn't behoove the speaker to block everything because 30
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heart right wing people want chaos. >> reporter: mike johnson opposed aid for ukraine but schumer could force johnson's hand if he's able to advance the international security plan. hausman orly leader hakeem jeffries think there's a way to deal with international aid in the house. >> republicans have increasingly recognized the my way or the highway approach of maga extremists is not working. >> reporter: johnson would not commit to a bipartisan aid package from the senate. the house is reeling from the failed impeachment vote for alejandro mayorkas. >> i don't think this is a reflection on the leader but on the body itself and the place where we have come in this country. the nation is divided. the difference with the chasm between the parties is wider than it has ever been. there are lots of emotions.
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>> reporter: johnson promise to bring back the impeachment vote but it is hard with such a narrow majority. adam: one of my favorite guests speaks his mind, pretty blunt about that. former navy seal and texas congressman dan crenshaw. good seeing you. you said something interesting last night when talking about some of your colleagues in the republican party who are not keen on addressing laws even though as you accurately stated they did come up with hr 2 which was a republican only measure passed in the house but started with them. it is going to end there. >> it's a great point that i pick up often, the bizarre new talking point from outside that says we don't need any new laws. you can't believe that and also believe we need hr 2.
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both things can't be true. i point out the only reason trump got the border somewhat under control was international agreement with mexico and other countries. he had to go outside the us to make that deal but laws were insufficient even for trump. we absolutely need changes to law. we could spend 10 minutes describing what those are. we need a deal to secure the border, that is insane, that's abdicating our duty. i am not lost hope on an actual deal, i think it has to be led by the house. some of us should start redlining the bad senate deal with more leverage since we have the majority and put something forward that we want. neil: is there pressure from those who say leave well enough alone, this is a loser issue for president biden, a winning issue for us, let's campaign on it, that's what donald trump has been saying.
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>> i'm not willing to let hundreds of thousands of illegals into our country just because it might bring biden down a couple points. i believe trump can beat biden on his own merits. i'm going to help him, but i'm not willing to let tens of thousands of illegals into the country just because some people it might -- biden has hurt himself plenty. neil: when you hear that some of them were against the security measure because they said a president couldn't willy-nilly change it, if donald trump wanted to do more if he became president again he couldn't. i didn't see that in the language but some of them swore on a stack of whatever that it was there and that gave them pause because they thought it would tie, if it is to be donald trump, one of his hands against -- >> i have to know which part you are talking about.
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are you talking emergency authority? neil: what a president could change. that was in cement the president agrees to it, the one after that one and there is no wiggle room here, no room to change it. i can't imagine that was the case. you educate me. >> too long a conversation. the senate deal is so dead at this point i don't want to be debating the merits of it. we need to listen to what people critiqued it on and make a better one. it can't just be $60 billion of ukraine aid. that shouldn't be on us. it should be on europeans. we should also separate the supplemental. the $28 million of that 60 million doesn't go to ukraine. it goes to the department of defense. it shouldn't be labeled ukraine. we are not sending 60,000,000,002 ukraine.
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there's a lot of changes we need to make. the benefit of the senate deal is there is something we can edit. that's one benefit. we need to edit the hell out of it. lauren: 20 how realistic is that? how likely is it? >> slim chance but we have to try. adam: and q, good seeing you again. dan crenshaw of texas. you know by now nevada had a primary, and it did not turn up 7s for nikki haley, they lost while these candidates, to hang it up. that is everyone except her donors. ♪
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adam: neil: she placed second in the primary but she was second to none of these candidates, not a good way to get a campaign back on track. a lot of people say the focus
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is the confusion. the caucuses in nevada thursday, something she is not on the ballot for, donald trump is. people didn't know where to go. south carolina remains a focus but charlie gasparino is here, she has a knack of getting money guys to stick with her for how long? charles: after south carolina it seems like if she doesn't do well, she comes within single points of trump, this was her home state too but she doesn't do well there. it is probably done now. does she have enough money to stay in for a while, are you throwing good money on bad, and if you damage trump against biden. stuart:
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neil: it is fine to rip her a new one, not good for anything. charles: there is no way for her to win. i'm not defending donald trump. neil: he is the leader. charles: what the money guys are saying is at some point it's throwing good money at bad. why would you do this? if you're going to see low for at least support or you lose any chance of trying to influence having a say in administration policy under donald trump. you will be blocked. lauren: 1 if he doesn't? charles: you are electing joe biden. neil: money guys, they didn't get that way being stupid. did they see is this threat. charles: if she doesn't do well in south carolina it is an
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indication that you throw good money at bad, possibly reelecting president biden or whoever the democrats run. neil: one of the donors i talked to was saying get i heard this expression, you and i brought it up, she is the only one still standing. charles: can she be there anyway? neil: i don't know. charles: she can be there anyway. neil: anyone else who suspended their campaigns, they could come back. charles: she's still white hot and the last person in their. she would have some nominal say or claim to the throne if he had to go for some reason. the wheels of justice grind slow.
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when is the soonest he is going to go to trial? the criminal stuff. neil: the january 6th one is dicey because of the back-and-forth. charles: he's not theoretically on jail. january 6th goes away -- the fannie willis thing. that's the case where he can't pardon himself. he has staying power theoretically. neil: do you buy the theory that conviction changes everything? i doubt that. he has weathered these 91 various charges and gets more popular. a conviction, would they -- charles: trump has always benefited from the sword of malevolence of his opponents.
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when he went against media types battling them in those press conferences the questions were so over the top. some of these prosecutions are in the same. we don't know about projects with document case, what he got. was he taking love letters from macro -- emmanuel macron, what did he do to imperil national security exactly, we don't know that. and by the way think about alvin bragg, the payment to stormy daniels, the one in georgia where he hired her boyfriend to be the special prosecutor. neil: if there is a conviction, might not move the needle. on the markets and their performance, president biden is referring to it more, donald trump are saying a lot of this
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is excitement over me. what do you make of that? charles: that is why he beat the santos. the economy if you talk to people like larry fink it is strong. the average man on the street will tell you inflation is coming down. prices are still high. everything is too high for the average guy. despite all of this, biden cannot do well in the economics poll. just does not. you could have the rate of inflation come down, prices are still high. neil: do you go to mcdonald's? charles: applebee's. neil: $6 hashbrowns, $17 sandwiches. these are isolated. a lot of people point to that and say that the reality for a lot of folks. charles: i was at a john george restaurant.
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ashley: 20 neil: go to mcdonald's. it was my mcdonald's. charles: markets are doing well. the are very economy if you go to mcdonald's. or i ordered at my local diner. $8 at the diner. neil: you are paying. might not order a coffee and oatmeal but 8 bucks. if you -- if you are an average construction worker. my old man used to go to diners. the sugar package and take the bread. almost in that era for the average guy. all of this stuff is not translating better for president biden. neil: something is not connecting. the white house argues we have time to connect.
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charles: george h w bush ran, the economy was improving. charles: neil: people weren't feeling it. charles: it was baked in. he made mistakes how much to pay. neil: do you know you are paying $8? charles: no. what happened was i was going to pay cash for a change and stole it from -- i don't do that anymore. the correspondence on fox business. neil: we joke a lot but he is the best business reporter on this planet bar none. despite that we have a lot more coming up including the magnificent seven. a lot of people say it's more like the -- which three just got the bump, after this.
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stuart: neil: you've been richly rewarded buying the 7 biggest names in technology when it comes to the magnificent seven, good times for amazon, meta, microsoft and nvidia, less so for apple and tesla. and directly google alphabet but certainly technology is a dominant theme. in the middle of all the selling of that was going on and the handwringing get going on, kind enough to join us again. allen, still optimistic? >> reporter: i remain super optimistic and we get to the s&p 5000, the first target and in the bigger picture, the drop
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we have in october of 2,022 on the old top, looking at s&p 6000, 20% above. neil: you are looking for that. >> reporter: i'm not giving a timeframe. but i'm very optimistic. i'm not in physics. momentum is a powerful force and we can get into thermodynamics. the markets are hot, really hot right now. as a trader you want to see more consolidation but you have to choose. do you go after fast resources like these guys talk about. nvidia is up to hundred%, meta up 275% in the last 52 weeks but they've got momentum on their side but could slow down there's another argument for these stocks. if you have them keep holding
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them because the future of america. i remember people saying is that about ibm but there are certain stocks, whole sectors of people more inclined to the technology, the fast-growing technology, the nasdaq one hundred, that's the way to play this. what do you think? >> reporter: i'm a traitor and a traitor has a trading plan which means risk and control. you need an exit strategy. these stocks have huge momentum leading is on market. there's better risk reward choices. depends on your trading personality and risk control. do you mind losing money affairs 10% pullback? that is how you look at this. i'm a big believer in profit. that drives the markets. if you look at these companies five companies in the last quarter apple, meta, google,
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microsoft, amazon accounted for one hundred billion dollars in pure profit for the quarter so they's companies are making money but are they overdone? i would never tell someone not to purchase something but for me i would like some of these to go higher. everybody hated meta at one hundred dollars, google at one hundred dollars. nvidia pulled back. nobody wanted those. it's about risk/reward but also proper psychological positioning. neil: you are always ahead of the curve, thank you very much. on capitol hill if at first you don't succeed, we will explain and explore, after this. ♪ ♪
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neil: a crucial test in the senate to take on this border measure. isn't as easy as it sounds are likely to succeed. aishah hasnie has the latest from capitol hill. >> reporter: 20 minutes on the senate floor we will see the first test vote for the broader security supplemental that includes border policy senator lenkford, senator sinema and the conversion border package that will be up for a vote for us. it is expected to fail as the republican conference is going to vote against it. once that fails, chuck schumer will turn to his backup plan,
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ripping the border policy out of that package and putting forth of the rest of the aid package, $60 billion for ukraine, $14 billion for israel, corresponding for taiwan and much more, you need 68 to break the filibuster and mitch mcconnell indicated yesterday in a press conference that ukraine is important to him and he hopes this is how they move forward. in the senate offices i have been talking to it sounds like they will have enough republicans to move forward with of that piece. is taking heat for how this controversial border deal came about but if the security package passes the test vote it puts speaker johnson in a bind because democrats and a swath of fiscal conservatives rejected the standalone israel aid package and leader schumer said he hopes the speaker will put it on the floor. here's what the speaker said little bit ago. >> we will see what the senate
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does. we are allowing the process to play out and we will handle it. >> reporter: we will find out what happens in a few minutes. the first vote expected to fail. neil: pete ricketts, republican, good to have you. what do you think of this redo? ricketts:we can see this is a flawed product. at the end of the day biden wants and open border. that is reflected in what was negotiated, we are talking about 5,000 encounters a day. it doesn't end of the abuse of parole the president is doing, so many problems, if it's an emergency why can he waive it, not doing his job, he has the tools if he wants to do it.
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you are going to see a number of republicans vote against what they see. it doesn't get the job done. the second part, i have no idea, leader schumer has not given us an indication. senator wicker asked about it on the floor and he declined to answer. i don't know what senator schumer thinks he's doing. neil: you are a leader in the republican party. explaining what is at stake here, he seemed to give up on this. this this got ted cruz to say mcconnell should step down as head of the republicans in the senate. do you agree with that? >> we have to stick together as republicans. i don't think mcconnell should step down. we have a lot of important issues to tackle. we need to make sure we stay together as republicans. that is what you will see on this vote.
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neil: rick scott blamed a lot of this on mitch mcconnell. it's probably not very productive for republicans but you as a group are looking like the keystone cops. does that concern you and preparation for the election? >> we need to remember president biden created this problem at the border, donald trump brought these illegal crossings down to a 45 year low and president biden has the same tools available to him that donald trump did. he wants and open border and for him to imply that he needs this border bill to do this is disingenuous. he's not telling the truth. he can do this. he needs to get on it. there are things that were good about the border bill, overall, something i can't support and as we come pelicans - republicans, we need to
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remember president biden created this border problem. neil: we are hearing from the german chancellor arguing this back and forth in the senate isn't helping, if the us doesn't deliver weapons to ukraine, this is part of that, germany is not big enough to make up the gap and there is a real danger. probably an understatement. the move on the part of the irs to go after getting your tax money and making sure you are on the up and up, they claim hundreds of billions more in overdue and unpaid taxes that will more than dwarf whatever increase in their budget. we thought we would get a top accountant to help you out. ♪ ♪
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neil: the taxman is coming to year. you can't just get these hundreds of billions of dollars
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going after rich guys. dan gill trued is a rich guy but also a gifted accountant. i wanted to pick his brain on this. the irs is making it clear we are going after unpaid overdue taxes, and we are confident we can come up with hundreds of billions of dollars. how realistic? dan:they are looking at the tax gap, the taxes owed and the taxes that are actually paid, the gap annually is $600 billion so the irs is looking at this saying there's a lot of fertile ground for us to go out and get that money. but we need more funding get because in the inflation reduction act they were out located $80 billion but republicans have been chipping away at that and taking the number down. the irs is saying if you give
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us more money, more funding, we can collect a lot of money. they are projecting over $800 billion over a 10 year period saying that is a great return on your investment. neil: i don't know how likely that is but may be you could tell what is the irs helping people with this, who might be doing anything neff areas are illegal and want to know what does the irs look at? what raises their eyebrows? dan:when the irs goes out accumulating information specifically at where the abuses aren't errors are occurring and that is where we can get our money from. when the irs is looking at tax returns to focus in on areas where they believe they have easy pickings.
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some things that have been coming up is there is a lot related to the earned income tax credit. a lot of those people don't make a lot of money. hence republicans are saying you are going after the little guy. the irs says we are going where people are not paying all their taxes. neil: you get more going after a rich person than someone who isn't, more bang for your buck but it is hard because rich people have accountants and defenses but a good many of them have been paying up. we have a record collection year for the top, 5%. they say that is going to continue. what are they looking at from that crowd? >> you are right saying there's always a chance to get more money from people who have more money but people with resources will put accountants and
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attorneys between them and the irs to make it more difficult, or to take more time for the irs to get that money. the ideal situation for the irs is to make an assessment, get out, go to the next taxpayer. when dealing with the rich, it's not so fast that they can get the money. they have to be really sure that they are able to get their money because it will take more time to fill the tax gap. neil: what are the right offs people might be planning what it catches the irs's attention? dan:any time you have businesses that are known for being cash businesses that is always an area where people are going to not pay all their taxes because they have unrecorded income. that's the cardinal sin. anytime people are messing around with declaring all their income, the irs doesn't like that at all.
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on the other side with deductions, some of that can be gray areas. it's not as black and white as when people are not declaring their income. it always goes to those types of businesses or people who have the ability to hide income. neil: for what someone makes, they can realistically write off or deduct and if you are beyond those parameters they put you in a separate pile. it is from that pile, whether you are very rich or not at all very rich from which they do their targeting? right? dan:that's exactly it. there's so much data the irs collects, they have a ability to sort the data and say who falls outside these parameters of a certain industry or profession. when we look at that to say
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people in this business are generally playing this percentage of their income in tax falls outside of that, they are saying red flag, let's go there. neil: you see me writing off marinara sauce as a business expense, might be a dicey strategy. dan:it might be. i think you are right. personally i think it is reasonable but i don't think the irs will go along with it. neil: it was a very bad joke. thank you very much. the irs still on its hunt. we are in a hunt for 5000 on the s&p 500. it is just for starters after this. ♪ ♪
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