stuart: what is the most popular college major? history? health professions? business? engineering? you are first, ashley. ashley: i will go with number 3, business. >> business is broad so that is got to be the one. stuart: i go with engineering. wouldn't you know it? it is business. that is the popular? art history, we are on solid ground with the business. quick check of the markets. the dow struggling to a small gain of 23 points, nasdaq down 72. that's it for "varney and company". great show even though it is midsummer. we have the summer doldrums. rest assured we will be excitable tomorrow. coast-to-coast now. ♪ happy birthday to you

♪ happy birthday ♪ happy birthday ♪ neil: where did the time go? happy birthday, inflation reduction act, when you're young to point the president planning to pull out all the stocks even though he seems to acknowledge maybe they should have called the budget busting measures something else. a lot of green to go green even though that wasn't how the white house sold a year ago, justified the $750 billion pad, a means of producing americans price tag and today the president is expected to brag he did he said it would do, bring prices down. what has happened to inflation since? 12 straight months of prices easy but spending didn't do that and this inflation reduction didn't do that. the federal reserve and a year of unending hiking interest rates near 0 did that. investors know that. we all know that.

spending may boost economic activity but it always comes at a cost. had the fed not more than quintupled rates and most central banks did the same thing, the exact same period things would be different now. that is what broke the back of prices spiraling out of control. the sad truth is, my fellow americans, inflation is out of control, just not out of control, think whether we are celebrating, not inflation reversing but inflation simply slowing. put another way, every month for the past 12 months, we are still seeing prices rise, just not as much of a still up, just not up as much, still a wall up at the register, just not as painful a wall up at the register. that does not mean virtually everything isn't more expensive than it was. we have just become so numb to this spiral that we are grateful that price surges are not rocketing as much as they were.

it is a weird stockholm syndrome for weary consumers, taking comfort in the we are not doling out as much cash as we feared as we dole out more cash for everything from food and gas as we were two years ago. today they are trying to cut the cake. we are trying to cut the practice, as they take the bow on prices, healthy capital's ceo on what is nectar prices and what is really next for shoppers. finally, my old buddy on what is next for investors. buying this inflation reduction bull no matter what the market is saying right now. ♪ stuart: welcome, i am neil cavuto. i railed a little long but wanted to put this in perspective on this 1-year anniversary of the inflation reduction act, whether that had

any role here. for a first anniversary, traditionally is paper but we offer something better perspective. bill pulte is with us now. thank you for coming. sorry for prattling on at the top but my point was and is to look at the inflationary situation. it is not solved and not solved through more spending but through a lot of rate hikes. we hope without pushing us into a recession. what do you think? >> it is far from solved. we are not period of stagflation, low growth and a lot of inflation. we see the needs of the american people on twitter, now x. people are struggling to meet shelter costs, medicine costs, inflation hasn't gone away and we are in the first inning. neil: prices are still up.

they had been up higher but it is a bumpy ride. how do you expect for shoppers who are proving unusually resilient in the face of that. what happens to them? >> everything we hear from retailers, consumers are stressed. spending money on services for pandemic revenge. physical products are down for 11 straight months. not only do consumers face inflation but have to pay rising interest rates, and where it might be. debt is rising, insuring they are going to high-interest as rates rise, credit card debt rises and spending the most expensive capital that they can get to purchase what they need in their life and finally we are facing student loans. when that comes this fall, it is going to be a difficult holiday season, challenging for retailers.

neil: we are going to avoid politics if we can, the president will say thanks to the increased spending, we have better control of inflation. do you by that premise? >> i don't by any politician who says they have debt under control and have inflation under control. they have shown they can't be trusted, any politician for that matter, that they will get spending under control. we have a long way to go. president biden may be the president now but may not see the consequences of what happens the next 5, ten, twenty years. if you look at the compound math of this situation, this problem is slow and sleepy but when it bites, as we learn the last couple years, it bites. neil: can we avoid that bite? can consumers find a way to pivot around what would be a real price disaster when we

seek cheaper alternatives. and avoid getting clobbered by this. >> already doing that. doesn't mean they have a lot of discretionary cash that they are shifting toward retailers. target reported sales that were down sharply. 5%, a big deal that sales declined like that. t.j. maxx reported up 6, that's and 11 point spread, a bargain place. when walmart reports tomorrow, expect that to be positive also. in this difficult economy they are flocking to lower prices. history has shown since 1960 one, when walmart, target, and kmart began the same year that in tough times, the consumers shop at walmart. and great times, the more money you spend the more they go to target. look at target and walmart spread, that tells you where the mind of the consumer is.

neil: both of them can go lower on the pricing food chain at dollar stores and all that but let me get your take on what seems a growing consensus that the federal reserve doesn't do anything when it meets next month. might hold steady for a while. a growing school of thought out there, goldman sachs the latest to say they will be cutting interest rates. do you by that? >> maybe. what's going on behind the scenes, look at the mortgage bond market. rates continue to go up and not only that but slowly unwinding these mortgage-backed securities and many other securities that vote fed has. it may not be interest rates but there are things behind the scenes that are tightening. i don't necessarily believe the coast is clear and you can see that in the negative space if you look behind the scenes to what is going on and not just the topic of the daylight interest rate hikes.

neil: much has been said, stepping back from retail that markets respond favorably, if they are serious about addressing our spending and getting it under control. that would result in lower market rates because markets would seize on that to say these guys are serious. all these worries evaporate. >> that might be true. pretty clear that congress is unpopular with people right now. whatever market, people are unhappy with the gridlock we see. i don't see that changing. to me there is 0 chance talking about what we could occur. neil: on that happy note i want to thank you very much. we've got the dow which was up 100 points, barely clinging to a 13 point advance. what is up to that?

tim, we have a lot of things weighing on this market not the least of which is china. maybe that is what is roiling these guys, news reports the chinese regulators are not going to approve intel's bid to buy the -- not releasing all the economics stakes the could prove things are slowing down mightily for china and we already know chinese youth unemployment is 20 one%. is this sort of like the black swan developments we should be looking at? china not imploding but stopping. >> it could be but investors, global investors may also be much more reluctant to invest in china than they have been in the past. for 10 to 20 years, people have

questions the legitimacy or accuracy of economic data coming out of china as well as the individual corporate data that has been reported out of china but they were growing at a very strong rate. 10% plus. a lot of global managers would say i get the risk but at 10% growth potential, we are going to make that bet because there was a lot of room if something went wrong. now talking a much slower rate of growth, investors will be much more reluctant to make big commitment in the long-term. neil: what would be the impact of china was in serious economic trouble, relations between our countries this bad in decades, the chill is real. americans say they deserve everything they are getting but

there are reverberations in the world. >> definitely are but before we get into negative scenarios, i would say do not sell short to china central bank. most likely have a lot of room to provide stimulus to their economy and talking about 1 billion plus people. at a certain inflection point, you have to believe that there consumer is going to be very much involved in their economy. i think of all the short-sellers, all the money short-sellers have lost over the decades in our market, the most has been lost betting against the us consumer to draw a parallel. . 20 and might draw the world at interest to know the political tensions, might be better to have everyone economically doing okay. let me get your take on technology and banking in that

order, two closely watched sectors after a torrid pace, reversing things in the month of august, banking seems on its footing amid talks of downgrades and the like, where are you first on tech? >> just had a phenomenal run for the last six to nine months and number of years, looked like that was coming to a end until vai story - the ai story started to percolate and it caught another leg and now you are having a number of names, we just have to see at what point do you consolidate the big gains that tech has had for the last six to nine months, we have a higher level, and maybe

catch their breath and make another run toward the end of the year. this is a seasonally difficult time of the year, the stretch from mid-august to mid october and the negative headlines are giving the sellers more incentive. with banking, it is kind of like, investors can't decide if raising interest rates are negative or positive, historically they would be positive and if the yield curve which isn't as steep as it may be was 18 months ago, were to steep and considerably again, like we've seen the last couple days that may be a negative. investors have been burned or

disappointed so many years in a row over the bank stocks, the risk/reward trade is probably to own the quality names. neil: that is the default. if all else fails go to ai. thank you very much. tim anderson of the stock exchange following this from the big board. we are in negative territory. donald trump, you heard what happened in atlanta, another round of indictments to deal with from the peach state, says he is going to respond monday to all of that and prove that the election was rigged to. that got him in trouble in the first place. there are some things that go better... together. like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together...

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neil: wouldn't you put your trust or your instincts in those guys, republicans who said this has been well examined, aggressively examined, and there was nothing to it. >> i have one question in my mind. i'm running to be our next president. i ask what is in the interest of this nation? do i believe these prosecutors or these elected officials or

federal prosecutors are advancing of the interests of this nation when they are bringing this unprecedented indictment, not one time but four times over? i think our country is worse off because of this politicization. neil: that was my conversation with ozempic team who said if he to become president he would pardon donald trump for all these indictments coming his way. that wouldn't work in the case of georgia because that is a state function and you can't just askew it. it does raise growing estimations about what the former president has to do or say on monday to respond to all of this and prove he says once and for all that the contest particularly in georgia was rigged. the former federal prosecutor, messenger of national politics report, welcome to you both. i'm not here to get in the weeds of what he might or might not say, just that he stands by

his notion, long-held, that the election was rigged, that all of his actions were based on that as president to turn around that travesty and that insulates him from charges he knew otherwise and did things he shouldn't have done. what do you think of that? >> at the crux of this case is the question of whether donald trump knew he lost the election. any sort of evidence tending to show irregularities, even if the court cases have essentially ruled that there was no such irregularities but genuine belief in the mind of the defendant, it will be a question for the jury. it is important although risky for any defendant to make pretrial statements the can and will be used against him in court but that's the bottom line here. neil: the bottom line politically, without dispute for the time being, he is more than surviving this, 91

criminal charges through these cases. he is bullet proof and remains that way. do you see that continuing? >> he is bullet proof. this is what polls show with the republican base. look at these indictments, there isn't much seepage from his supporters especially in the republican primary. you noted this, the response is what got donald trump in a lot of trouble originally. this response to the georgia indictment, not sure a lot of republicans are cheering the fact that he's going to do this press conference and review this report because it will continue a lot of what had already been litigated. it's important to note politically georgia is a difficult place for donald trump. obviously he won the state in 2016, the first republican to lose the state in 30 years in 2020 and has done disastrous damage to the party ever since. after his loss, he damaged the republican candidate in the runoff election. both democrats won.

and 22, he said he would get revenge on the republicans he said didn't do enough to protect the vote in 2020, he was unable to oust them from office. this has proved to be his achilles' heel in georgia. i am questioning if this is going to be the real impact of this trial, the political impact it will have in a key swing state that donald trump and republicans know he can't lose if he's the nominee. neil: look at who has the momentum behind them, donald trump is first but joining the the former, governor ron santos, senator tim scott sticking to the political theme. what do you think of that? these things change mightily. >> there's going to be ups and downs in this primary process,

that republicans are thinking about it if you points, these early states, tim scott isn't experiencing that, you played that earlier with ozempic team, had his moments as well but that will happen. what we haven't seen so far is anyone hit that moment and use it to take on the front runner who is donald trump and the polls continually show that he is the front runner. until someone is able to hit that moment and take on trump, i am not sure many republicans expect anything but a trump nominee in 2024. neil: i apologize for that. let me get your take on where this goes as far as how far this goes for the former president. his lawyers are pushing these cases back beyond the election, but they are for them. a lot of players and moving parts.

how likely is it that none of these go to trial before the election? >> it strongly likely in my mind. there is significant evidence that each of these defense teams have to go through, donald trump and any of the defendants have the right to change counsel at least once in this process, which would prolong these cases further out and we have to remember the government has been investigating these cases for years. it is ridiculous to think the defense should be rushed to trial, even watching all the videos and interviews and documents related to this is going to take significant amounts of time. very likely none of them will go to trial before the election because the defense doesn't want them to. neil: georgia, 2 and a half years in the making and then rush rush rush, go to trial. thank you very much. good seeing you again. look at the fallout later in

the broadcast and explore more at 4:00 eastern time. in the meantime, an update on a small minnesota town, police force up and left, salaries. ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪

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neil: violent crime is everywhere. when you see it up close and personal in stores trying to do business. bottom line you start asking, is anyone trying to address this. the wine bar and kitchen in washington dc dealt with this head on. how are things now? >> the latest, they took a cinderblock and pounded in our door at 5:00 am in almost broad daylight.

astonishing how brazen they have gotten it when they are willing to do these break ins. neil: they took $20,000? >> we have five break ins since this started and the last break-in, they have been back to back every couple weeks, someone breaks in and there are repeat offenders. the one that broken most recently, we've seen them before and we tell by their body language they've been inside our bar, based on past video. nothing has been done to mitigate this and it is happening. neil: you tell the police, they are familiar with your story, what do they stay? >> what they are telling us today as we are understaffed, can't be everywhere all the time. they are chasing shootings and drive-bys and real victim crimes and break-ins, low on the totem pole of things they can address at this point. they are underfunded and a lot

of police feel handcuffed themselves. they can't do the policing they used to do. there's not enough to keep up with what is happening. neil: this is not worth it? what do you think? >> yeah. one of the police officers said wired you guys in virginia? that is a bold statement, you can move to alexandria and got away from this. why are you still here? we've been here a number of years and trying to push through this but when you have police officers and folks saying we are doing our best, you may consider other options. neil: where are you exactly in dc. >> the historic part of dc, in 2019, spent a lot of time revamping that. a lot of investment through covid, for what happened in 2020. a lot of the businesses that

shutter, dc has punitive set up for taxes. if you are 're a vacant business they will find you -- they will find you for being vacant. a lot shouldn't be there anymore, dealing with drugs and other cash-based businesses. h street has taken a real downturn. neil: i hope you can make a good go of it. there is a limit for that. >> thank you for having this. julie: can understand the frustration of business owners and police. they got to the deck of not so much a crime you should butter money issue. they all walked off the job. >> the town of good you will be without its own police department because the police

chief and all the officers redesigned, citing lope. police chief josh smith who will serve until august 23rd said the pay at $22 an hour is not competitive another department nearby make 30 an hour. the mayor reacting to the news. >> we are all blindsided by it. we are resilient and move forward. >> reporter: across the country, police departments are struggling with retaining officers. issues started back in 2018 when for the past couple years it has gotten worse. 65% of police agents reported an increased in retirement in 2020-22. this number is more concerning. 66% reported an increase in resignations, and the problem is new recruits are not coming into replace of those leaving. in chicago they are currently short 1500 police officers.

higher pay is helping with recruitment. in san francisco, supervisors raised police officer pay and retention bonuses, the latest box of recruits is the latest that has been seen in three years. it has 600 officers short of the recommended 2,000 one hundred 80 officers. i talk to police in new york and one of the concerning trends they are seeing with new recruitment is they don't have enough people signing up for the test. 14,000 people come and take the officer test. 2022, this year, they have 1000. neil: thank you. we have the dow down at 11 points and want to give the latest from hawaii, particularly maui. after this.

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neil: the discount out 106 in maui as search cruz continues sifting through the ruins. in the months to come, for now, searching for those who lost their lives. amanda cassidy, a resident who has seen firsthand what mother nature can do. she's here to tell us about it. what's the latest? >> it has been a crazy journey. i know that there's water and ice, camping gear, inundated with clothing, receiving text messages, we are communicating really well. a lot more national guard,

people on the floor searching for our loved ones. it is a massive effort. neil: the home you were renting was destroyed. where do you live now? >> the home i was renting was one of the first to catch on fire by the pass. staying in someone's condo. the red cross has started to try to find a replacement for people who have been displaced so that another family or somebody can come to this place because there's only so many options. neil: i talked to others in your shoes. it all happened so fast. can you share your story?

>> every month on the first of the month there's a soon on the warning to test the largest emergency warning system in the world, every first of the month it goes off, they did not utilize those nor did they send out emergency alerts. there was a fire at 6:30 in the morning, to have that out, they left the scene and it was not out. the fire reignited. that is what turned into the devastating fire. there were no warnings. we received nothing. that was a massive fail on our leaders part. they let people down. children were home from school that day due to hurricane dora's winds. i know those winds, this was

horrific. couldn't get out of the vehicle. 30 minutes prior to the fire having to evacuate from the fire, sitting in my car, couldn't get out of my car, had to wait for the gusts to die down to run through to get to my house. neil: incredible. you are alive and well. you will get through this, i have no doubt you will. hang in there. >> thank you very much. neil: amanda cassidy dealing with all of that. when you are dealing with those kind of issues, we have that and more coming up in the next hour. jackie: our hearts go out to everyone in hawaii. the fox news power rankings are out. we will walk you through that. biden hitting the road to some great the inflation reduction act the didn't reduce

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neil: a lot of retailers coming out with numbers better than we thought they would be, when it came to revenue and the like. and interesting etf attached to retail with earnings and at this point it is up 8% this year. half the s&p 500 but a reminder that this is a battered sort of area for the markets last year that might be showing a bit of a comeback this year but any comeback in stocks in general, with great caution, the stock market's editor and publisher is here to tell us he's not buying people saying this is a mere blip and we could go buying and mass. always great having you. how do you feel about the markets right now after a soaring july, a stumbling august. what do you think?

>> not sure you should be asking me. the beginning or end of may, when i was very bearish, the market has gone up significantly, 6 or 7% which i was very bearish at the time and not many analysts like to say that but that is the way. julie: have a good long-term track record. you are quite an iconic read of these markets. might have been early on this, might have been wrong on this but what do you see happening now? >> very quickly, people should know we have been talking to each other for 30 years. neil: i hear you. >> there is mutual respect from both of us. at least i hope there is. here's the market now. this is one of the reasons that

i was very bearish and may. there's a very simple formula. if you want to use it and work perfectly for the last 40 or 50 or 60 years, what you do is divide the nasdaq 100 which is the tech index, speculative index by the dow jones industrial average which you could call high, conservative average. you fly the nasdaq one hundred by the dow jones industrial average, typically over the last 34 years, the ratio is going to be somewhere around 10, 15, 20%. sometimes you go higher than that. there have only been three times in the last order your 50 years when the ratio gets to 40% or higher. it is simple division. once the index, once that ratio

gets to 45%, to mortgage the house or whatever, it has been a fabulous time to be a big seller in the stock market. especially, let me tell you when that occurred, i am sure you don't recognize them, first time it occurred in the last 40 or 50 years was in the beginning of march of 2000. as we recall, doctors and lawyers were quitting their professions at that time in march 2000, why should i work? it is so easy to make money in the stock market. that was march 2000. that was 45%. at the 2009 bottom, going all the way back to 10, 11, 12% and got there for years and years,

slowly climbed as the markets went up. usually as the market goes up, the ndx does better than the dow because people are confident. it would get to 12, 13, 15, 20, 25%. in november of 2021 as the mdx was gory at all time high, we got close a few weeks ago, that percentage went about 45% again for only the second time in market history. neil: history to tell you when that happened, the timeframe that it is coming. neil: glad you asked that question. >> when we reach that level in march 2000, that was incredible. the mdx was up 24.5% and 11

trading days after reaching that ratio. does that mean that will happen here? crazy to think we will be down that much in that short a time. in november 2021, we reach the ratio, for several weeks, never 19th, the same time the nasdaq 100, the next three or four weeks, at christmas time and a week later the dow and the s&p topped out at their all-time highs and guess when it happened for the third time in the last 50 years? on july 14th, the week ending july 14th, once again, for only the third time in 50 years, the ratio of mdx to the dow got about 45%. neil: how does it materialize? >> we only have one, the example that happened in 2000.

the mdx was down 85% from that high, 85%. am i predicting that? you can't make that kind of crazy prediction but i want viewers to know that we are as overextended and overvalued as we were in march of 2,000. let's see how the results work this time around. they've never been good in the past year. neil: thank you for laying it out. we make sure both sides are heard, he deserves to be heard on his track record, concentration on these developments.

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and budget at one of our over fifteen hundred locations. call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. neil: an inspiring movie turned out to be not what we thought. gerri willis with more on the former nfl star who is seeing stars and angry ones at that. what going on? jim mack this is a complicated story with as many layers as an onion. the former nfl star of the

blindside is being accused of threatening to plant a negative story about the tennessee family who took him in unless they pay him $15 million. a lawyer alleging shakedown after michael or filed a petition to end his conservatorship, he learned the family never legally adopted him. a firestorm on social media, some think sandra bullock should return the oscar she won for portraying leanne but blind star's star, defends sandra bullock saying he was shocked by the unfortunate lawsuit. the family attorney saying the accusations are hurtful, saying the former nfl received, quote, he will cut of every penny. the proceeds, he says, $14 each and michael was paid as well but according to or's petition the movie paid their birth

children age 20,000 bucks and two. 5% of the film's defined net proceeds. as part of his petition he's asking for a full accounting of the money they made using his name and to be paid a fair share of the profits along with other damages. the family at lawyer says they will not oppose ending their guardianship but they will defend their names and the conservatorship, as you remember, allow someone to assume legal guardianship over an adult. remember britney spears successfully challenged the guardianship that she was placed under two years ago. today, more breaking news, 2017 video from a reality tv show, below deck, showed sean 2y that he negotiated with steven spielberg. back to you. jack: q for that