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tv   Barrons Roundtable  FOX Business  July 30, 2023 10:30am-11:00am EDT

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employees. you've also got big earnings from if apple and amazon coming out next week. that happens on thursday. could be a market mover. of we'll be following all of that on "mornings with maria," weekdays 6-9 a.m. eastern right here on fox business, and i'll see you over on the fox news channel on sunday, "sunday morning futures" is live at 10 a.m. eastern. exclusive interviews with chairman james comer, house intelligence committee chairman mike turner, the prime minister of italy, and harvard law professor emeritus alan dershowitz join me live on sunday. that'll do it for us here on fox have a great rest of weekend, and i'll see you again next time. ♪ ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter.
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coming up, strong economic data this week seems to justify the new bull market, but are we out of the woods yet? i'm asking morgan stanley's chris toomey. then it's been a bumpy road for disney, but barron's is expecting the company's stock to reboundful we'll tell you why disney is a buy. and we'll take a look under the stock market, ask and we're seeing bullish signs. we begin, as always, with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. markets ended the week higher, but the dow snapped its longest winning streak since 1987. plus, the federal reserve went ahead with an expected quarter percent rate hike. general electric may not be the giant it once was, but its sock has powered past many of the big name tech companies. we'll tell you how it got there. and finally, the braves are the best team in baseball, but investors are not cheering for liberty media. why we think john malone's empire is worth more than wall street does. ben levisohn, kristin bell strum and andrew barry.
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so, ben, that 252-year, 35-year -- 25-year streak that, i guess, was last time the dow was up 13 days in a row, but even though it's going well, investors are staying calm. it all just seems a little too good to be true. >> yeah. i mean, it's actually kind of nice. it's a reminder with this streak ending that you can't go up forever, but the market is still going up. and really it's because everything is coming up the way the bulls want it to. the economic data has been good, strong gdp, strong consumer confidence, we have falling inflation, jobless claims are holding up just fine, ask and really that just says things should keep going up. [laughter] jack: well, this is what jerome powell wanted to do after, obviously, a very late start. he seems to be doing well now whether he's lucky or good. then he had his press conference where he acknowledged that he's now weighing the benefits of hiking versus not hiking. do you think that cheered the market as well? >> i think market is glad to see that the fed is going to do what it needs to do. it should fight inflation.
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i mean, the fed messed up and let inflation get ooh too hot, and it needs to bring it down. and if inflation if doesn't keep going down, it needs to do something. i think the market was heartened to hear if inflation doesn't keep doing what it's doing, they could take a pause come september. jack: we're in earnings season, and the same game plays out where analysts lore the bar until companies can clear it and then they say, hey, we beat. they seem to be clearing the bar by a little more. >> they are. it looks about like 80% of companies have beaten now with about half of the s&p 500 reporting, and that's actually better than average. and the the earnings beats are good i must have that you could see second quarter profits actually rise from a year ago which is not what anyone expected. everyone expects another drop. and so that would be a pretty big deal. and we still have some more big companies coming, apple, amazon, or cater pillar. and all these, if they can keep reporting pretty solid earnings, we're going to see a market that goes higher. jack: kristin, there are few
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things ugh uglier than the ge chart since the turn of the millennia. in fact, august of 2000, i think, was the all-time high for that stock. but last fall baer on's turned bullish -- barron's turned bullish, and it's done well since then. >> the stock has doubled since our stock pick came out. and surprisingly, this company is beating big tech. we've heard so much about how big tech is dominating in the market right now, but they're outperformed apple, microsoft, amazon, a lot of other big names. and they're basically doing this because the company is getting smaller, they're getting more focused, they're spinning off pieces of the business to be independent companies. case in point, ge health care which spun off at the beginning of the year. ge still owns a chunk of that company, it's doing very well, and it actually was just announcing that it thinks it's going to get a boost from these new alzheimer's drugs because patients are going to need scans on ge health care machines. so a lot of good is happening for the company. jack: they just had earnings,s how were those? >> they blew earnings away, and
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and they actually did that by growing across the company. the core of ge right now is its aerospace business and, you know, people are flying again, travel is back. that's really benefiting them. but they're seeing growth across the business, so even in wind which has historically been a real problem for them, and and i think for investors, they're going to be looking forward to the next spin-off. they're spinning off the energy business. that's going to probably happen early next year, and i think that'll be the next thing to watch. jack: all right. i want to get to andrew and talk about how the braves are beating my mets by 17 games right now. the best team in baseball. wall street doesn't have a lot of respect for that empire. >> malone empire's been out of favor for the past few years, but the braves are a particularly interesting stock, rich people paying record prices, but individuals can buy the braves' stock which is the only publicly-traded major league baseball team, at a pretty attractive price. could be worth at least $3
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billion. jack: and what are the other parts to this empire? >> one of the best parts is liberty series xm which holds a big stake in siriusxm, the satellite radio company. berkshire hathaway's the biggest holder, and warren buffett if loves the service. he has his cadillac tuned to seriously sinatra all the time. [laughter] the the final one is liberty broadband which owns about a 26% stake in charter communications. all of them look pretty cheap relative to the value of their assets. jon could they be spun off to actually realize that value? >> the atlanta braves have been simplified which could that facilitate a sale in the next year or so. liberty siriusxm is getting templer as well, and the accoun. jack: all right. gdp report, strong inflation boosting investor confidence in the economy. morgan stanley's chris toomey has been bare on stocks, however. around data and and solid earnings -- after data
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♪ stay off the freeways! only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ jack: the fed's key inflation measure is showing prices are climbing at the lowest level in nearly two years. consumer spending is strong, and this week's gdp report revealed the economy grew more than expected at 2.4%. chris toomey at morgan stanley whose team is number five on barron's list of the best add advisers in the country, is joining me now. thanks for coming in the studio. >> thanks for having me. jack: the fed took very dramatic measures, seems to be having some success, and yet it didn't kill the economy in the process. >> sure. jack: wall street seems to be happy about this what's not to love? >> i mean, i think those are famous last words, right, jack? [laughter] look, i think in fairness, chairman powell's getting a lot of credit for the hard work that
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he's done. the market is responding in a very positive way. and for a job that kind of typically ranks with regards to a similar category as weatherman, this is the first time he's starting to get some of that credit that he hasn't been getting in the past. i think in many regards we were very defensively positioned in 2022. 2023 -- jack: which was a good call. >> which was a good call. 2023 we were expecting earnings to go down, gdp to moderate, not necessarily go into an inflatioo recession, inflation to come down. and that with those earnings going down, we would see muted prices with regards to the stock market. i think what we got wrong was, first, the fiscal stimulus. so the biden administration passed two big bills, big laws, the chips act as well as the inflation reduction act, which we see a fair amount of stimulus within the economy. and then we had that banking
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crisis which added that monetary stimulus with regards to liquidity flowing in the system. but if you look at the projection with regards to the path of the stock market whether it's the s&p 500 or the nasdaq up 20%, up several, 30 or so, what you're seeing is the fact that we have just gotten pe multiple. earnings are till down about 4%. if you look at the earnings pigture, we saw earnings go down in the fourth quarter, we saw earnings go down in the first quarter which confirmed an earnings recession, and second quarter we're expecting earnings to be down about # 9%, halfway through that. so we are seeing continued earnings, and that's a concern to us. jack: could the market just be looking through this saying, okay, no recession or muted recession, inflation will be whupped? of course, pes are sell -- elevated because earnings are down, but erin -- earnings come back and we're all a set. >> that is a misperception. jack: okay. >> perception is higher.
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in reality, at the beginning of the year i think the concern was the fed was going to do too much damage, that they had raised rates too quickly, too fast, too aggressively and that the economy was going to be experiencing some trauma in the first half and and that if you remember, bond market was pricing two rate cuts in the second half. now we're in a situation where not only did we not get two rate cuts, we actually saw rates go higher. so what we've seen right now is really a kiss connect with regards to -- disconnect with regards to the market and rates which would have typically driven that pe multiple higher. so in our view, the pe multiple's to too high and earnings expectations are also too high which is typically a recipe for disaster. jack: one thing that does worry me a little bit, and has that a lot of companies, unprofitable companies, are still paying off very, very low rates on borrowing because they got the loan back when money was free. when those turn over, they are going to be paying twice, triple
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what they were borrowing, and and some of them just don't have the cash flow toover -- to cover that. so this lag that you hear about with the fed rate hikes, we could be seeing that the over the coming months and years. what do you think? >> i totally agree. fed policy operates with long and and variable lags. this is the lag that we're seeing. and a lot of that has to do with sensitivity to interest rates by the consumer and businesses, right? if so the consumer during covid built up a huge savings in their balance sheet. we saw them -- jon cc no vacations. >> they saw them refinance their mortgages at very low rates. a lot of those are 30-year mortgages, so they're in pretty good shape with regards to taking advantage of those low rates. you also have a situation with regards to corporates doing the same thing with regards to pushing maturities out and refinancing at lower a rates. the problem is, is that if you look through that in the next three years, we're going to see over $5 trillion that that needs to be refinanced. and a lot of that refinancing is
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going to be at rates, like you said, that are twice what they were originally financed at. in the situation where those businesses are going down, right? so an environment where the cost of capital is essentially zero, a lot of businesses will actually be able to do very well. in this situation you've got about $500 billion worth of distressed debt, only 10% of that has defaulted. so that is a big worry with regards to what's going on in the market. jack: one media giant has its fair share of missteps, but barron's is anticipating a rebound for the company. we'll tell you what it's doing right next (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher investments. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in
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some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. about two years ago,
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another look? it's the cover story this week, and barron's senior writer joins the panel. thanks for coming on the show, nick. >> thank you. jack: what has gone so wrong in recent years? >> certainly, jack, the stock performance has been less than enchanting for the past couple years for disney. the parks are doing great, record revenue, record earnings, the issues are really on on the media side of the business. there's the linear tv which is still profitable, but it's a shrinking business, and then there's streaming which is the fastest part of the portfolio -- growing part of the portfolio, but it's losing millions of dollars in this year. >> there's a lot of focus on disney's battle with florida governor ron desantis, but disney has enough problems right now that you really don't need to blame them on the go woke, go broke kind of idea. there's a lot of unnecessary noise more than anything. jack: but it's still headline risk. you've got the linear melting ice cube that you mentioned. you've got money losing streaming.
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where's the upside here? >> as everyone has heard, bob iger base -- iger's back as ceo, he's got a new mantra of restoring creativity to disney's franchises. the company should return to earnings growth in the second half of this year, streaming is on track to break even next year, and you have an inexpensive stock. when you look at the price to earnings multiple versus its history, varsities us -- versus the market, versus peers, but when you do an evaluation based on the sum of the parts. >> the theme parks ato loan could be worth almost the entire market cap of the company. >> yeah, by our math, $124 per share which is almost 50% higher than the current sock price. >> okay. that would be an impressive jump. what kind of catalyst do you see the stock there? >> a new marvel movie coming out this year, maybe we should all go together -- [laughter] but that return to earnings growth. an lists are penciling in earnings growth in the september quarter which would follow four
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quarters of negative year ore year numbers, so that's a good sign of the therapy-around -- turn-around starting to get under way. there's an investor summit in september, that'll be a chance the give long-term targets for the streaming business, what do margins look like after break even, and they've talk about bringing back the dividend by the end of this year which should broaden the appeal to to more investors. a starting point of an inexpensive stock. >> and they have samuel l. jackson, and what else do you need. jack: i want to ask you about espn. at one point that was sort of the crown jewel at least in the abc empire, but you had all these families, news households paying for es espn, some of which weren't even watching sports. that group is shrinking, shrinking, shrinking. meanwhile, the cost after -- of actually buying rights to these plan choose -- franchises is going up. what's the future for espn? >> no doubt can about it, it's a tougher business in the streaming era. iger has talked about the future is streaming and theme parks
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which suggests that maybe every else, linear networks could be on the table for sale. it's all peculation, but they could spin it off, they could find a minority partner to bring some cash in and share the burden there. i'll say they are separating everything spn into its own segment this year, so look at that how you will. that may be a precursor. one analyst has suggested that disney should trade e e spn straight up for comcast can, hulu stake. that seems farfetched to me, but there are some ideas out there with what they could do. jack: one more bit of speculation is this idea that perhaps one analyst floated that apple could buy disney. it sounds crazy, but on the other hand, they have this new vr headset, they have a deal with disney to put content in there? >> yeah, they do. the relationship between these two company companies goes back all the way to steve jobs and pixar. it's definitely speculation, but the idea is apple doesn't need to make money on streaming the way that disney does or any
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other media company does. they can use this exclusively-owned content to drive more sales of hardware. they have deep pockets to spend on sports rights, all kinds of creative ideas with using augmented reality at the theme parks. for the record, i don't think that apple will buy disney in its wirety, but it's one more interesting possibility to watch going forward. >> yeah. apple never does big deals, so i think one reason why it's a long shot, i think their biggest deal was buying beats, the headphone company. they like to grow internally and organically. >> it would be out of character. disney's market cap is something like 6 of apple's market cap, so apple is so much bigger that it is the digestible, but i don't think it's going to happen. jack: we'll see if iger can work that magic once again. thanks, nick. you guys have a couple of investment ideas, and ben says some stocks are acting strangely, strangely bullish. we'll tell you what companies are looking ho we never just see the numbers, we see the people. my dad started trek
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♪ ♪ jack: and there's an old song on wall street with, buy the rumor, sell the news. the idea is in the leadup to something happening, the street figures it out, and by the time it actually happens, everybody who would if a buyer has already bought. you've pointed out right now it's buy the rumor and keep on holding i on -- on. >> keep on buying the news. it's been impressive. this was something you'd look for, stocks are run up into earnings, then the news would come out, and it would drop even if they beat earnings. but what we're seeing is stocks like meta platforms which gained 40% in the three months heading into its earnings report comes out with the news, gains 4.4%. and this is a huge stock. alphabet, up 14% in the three months before the report, it
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gains 5.ing %. then there's -- 5.8%. then there's stocks you haven't heard of, carrier, an hvac stock the, they do air conditioners, and right now they're doing great, haw today gained 34% in the three months before their earnings, and guess what? they gained 4.2%. this is a sign that people, as on the mix as they have been about this market, weren't optimistic enough, and that is a great sign for a bull market. jack: something else you pointed out recently was despite all this excitement, it's been a very calm rally, and you see that as a good thing? >> i do. you look at this dow winning streak that just ended. thirteen days of gains. it's a great winning streak, but then you look at how much the market went up during that time, it was just 5.3. i asked our markets data team at dow jones to look at 13-day gains, not just winning streaks, but how much the market has gained in 13 days, that 5.3% doesn't even make the top 100 #. jackie: -- jack: wow. >> and that streak equaled one
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in 1987. is so the market gained 111%, more than twice as butch -- as much. 1 # # # # -- 11%. nobody's getting too excited about things, they're not having reasons to buy a ton, sell a ton and do it all over again, they're just taking the market and push it higher. this is a great sign. jack: it is nice to be a little calmer. let's go to actionable ideas. what do you have for us, andrew? >> buy alcoa. used to be part of the dow, leading aluminum company in the world. out of favor right now, the stock's down 20%, aluminum prices are weak, but aluminum is the other green metal besides copper, and alcoa what's one of biggest producers in the world. it's got a very modest margin value. health cared be a takeover candidate, and this is a stock that was up almost as high as 100 a couple years ago. jack: kristin, what have you got for us? >> i like moderna. the stock is down, and that's mostly because their whole business is covid right now, and
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very few people are getting covid vaccines. however, that also means it's cheap. they have a lot of cash on the books, and i think people are overlooking the pipeline are. they have vaccines coming for rsv, they're working on combination vaccines and, you know, i think if any of these work out, it's going to be a big catalyst. jack: great ideas, kristin, and andrew. check out this weak's edition of barron's.com. don't forget to follow us on twitter, x, whatever it's called,@barron's online. and that's all for us us. see you next week on barron's round table. ♪ you next weekend. have a great sunday. rachel: bye, everybody. ♪ ♪ maria: good sunday morning, everyone. welcome to "sunday morning futures." thanks so much for joining me this morning, i'm maria bartiromo. today, bribery and racketeering allegations against a sitting president from the house oversight committee. >> based o

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