maria: mike. michael: a. >> things tend to have an awfully for people on bottom half income spectrum in this country. >> don't forget higher gas prices came down, but now a lot of foreclosure saying 4 dollars a gallon biden is probably going to celebrate look i brought gas prices down 2.50 a gallon truthful left 3.50 now headed to 4 dollars again next hour of "mornings with maria" begins right now. . good friday morning. thanks very much for joining me this morning i am maria bartiromo. it is friday, february 3, top stories right now 8:00 a.m. on

the east coast big techs sets the tone futures reffing gains decline start of trading as you wrap up tech earnings await latest data the dow industrials off the lows of the morning, still showing a decline 65, the nasdaq down 110, almost 1% lower, meanwhile, stocks surged yesterday in tech led rally, nasdaq seeing the highest close since september 12 check out performance nasdaq up 3 1/4%, 384 points, then the closing bell sound and hot streak came to an end without, missing on earnings and revenue apple largest quarterly revenue declines since 2016 amazon first unprofitable year since 2014 stock underwater, today looking to january jobs' report, it is out in 30 minutes' time, we are got all-hands-on-deck economists expecting 158,000 jobs add to economy in january expecting

unemployment rate to come in 3.6% we've got all areas covered on where the jobsr, we are breaking down the numbers in half an hour stay right there, we're coming up to potential market moving report oil prices higher brent 82.34 up a quarter of a percent crude oil 76.03 up a of a percent% european markets mixed eurozone ft 100 up 32 cac quarante down 5 dax lower by 78,in asia overnight, markets finished mixed hong kong weak spot once again as u.s. officials are warning of a chinese spy balloon flying over the united states, an biden administration will not shoot it down. more details coming up right here, plus hunter biden lawyers revising statement on laptop in desperate grasp ahead of house hearings

arguing not admitting the laptop is his trying to plaim repair money for influence peddling, hearings into president joe biden and family to start on wednesday. all details right here, "mornings with maria" is live right now. . maria: u.s. tracking a chinese spy balloon spotted floating across northwestern u.s. past few days yes this is actually happening. fighter jets ready to shoot it down but biden administration said no, they are not shooting it down it was spotted over montana near an air force base home to 150 nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic mils china claims investigating the ploon a foreign ministry spokesperson urging united states proceed calmly carefully joining me with hot topics michael lee steve moore, steve, blinken is traveling to china sunday to

meet with counterpart there senator tom cotton urged him castle the trip until china explains itself with surveillance balloon your thoughts. >> so scarier, isn't it? you i look at that video, and should have been shot down as soon as they found it, this is -- this is this is china spying on america's military. so, are you got to explain this one to me why in the world are there even waiting to do this. i think the answer is that the biden administration has been soft on china. , as you know, i worked with donald trump, he was tough with china got better trade details he got china to blink you got to be tough with china old saying from a regular administration that weakness is provocative we are signaling weakness right now to china. maria: this just extraordinary, president trump, by the way,,posted on truth social to shoot down the balloon. but mike we don't know what is

in this balloon, right somebody else commented we don't know if we shoot it down what kind of material it will unlash into the air we have no idea. but it is above that military base. we know the surveillance programs are out in force on united states from the ccp, what does the ccp have on joe biden? that he is so soft on china? that canceled the china initiative, they ignore hundreds of billions of dollars in intellectual property theft. they ignore the origins of covid-19 not one hearing on you origins of covid-19 under democrats joe biden in last two years not one. >> maria, i wondered if if mark milley called china for permission to shoot it down they didn't give it to him. maria: a probably. >> or he was too busy with diversity change sensitivity, not using general dyamicsred pronouns for sir and ma'am i

wondered if busy with those sorts of things instead of shootings it down the fact leaked to media shows what an embarrassment it is, this administration, for our country, i am really happy blinken can take time away from amateur rock band to address this in china, how far how fast, our country has fallen under this administration, it is -- it is just shocking, remember, it was donald trump going to start a nuclear war? it was donald trump going to break all norms? this weakness from this administration, towards china, everyone else, okay, it is just an infection spreading he go into everything everyone taking advantage of us, i don't know how this is going to get better until we have completely different leadership in washington. maria: let's be clear. because it was donald trump

who he actually hosted xi jinping, at mar-a-lago in 2017 with an of his first foreign leaders that he met with i believe it was the second one, he had xi jinping, at mar-a-lago as i wrote in book with james freeman the cost, this was how we opened the book, that president trump was at mar-a-lago with xi jinping having dinner together, and during their des dessert chocolate cake donald trump drops the bomb into xi jinping, that we just sent 13 strikes to syria because they are using chemical on their people. >> that was how donald trump began his relationship with xi jinping. this is what we're doing, this is what just happened. enjoy your chocolate cake! then joe biden wakes into oval office goes soft on everything trump put in place. from the china initiative, to the -- you know response to covid-19, "the wall street journal" is out with a new

report today, they are linking tiktok's push to winner over washington with huawei's unsufficiently strategy, tiktok ceo to receive before house in a manipulative, just this week tiktok gave journalists a tour of what it is calling transparency, accountability center, steve what a joke. they are spewing out propaganda, swaelg american citizens now we find out about this balloon until the sky. what is about administration doing about it. >> i can't improve on what you just said i add though we were spending hundreds of billions of dollars on climate change as if federal government is going to change the planet's temperature and, yet, the real threat to america, right now, is what is happening in beijing, this communist regime more militaristic much, much more predatory in trade economic practices we don't have a president who is

fighting back against this. it is like germany circa 1937 not paying attention or preparing for economic war that ear in with china. maria: i would like to know who else in the democrat party has taken money from the ccp, because it is just stunning to me that we don't hear anybody in the democrat party raising her hand, about the threat of china. okay. look at adam schiff look at eric swalwell sleeping with fang fang needs to be investigated we are taking a quick break, i hear you laughing unfortunately this is not funny not funny at all we've got jobs to take a look at though a "making money" host a charles payne here to preview jobs' report in 20 minutes' time predictions on numberb on job growth in 2023. we'll be right back. ♪

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>>. >> . maria: welcome back, morning mover forward motor take a look at stock falling premarket down 6% right now after reporting fourth quarter earnest earnings last night shortly of full year in guidance by 1.1 billion dollars, fell short of expectations as well by 100,000 units company cfo blaming forward performance on execution and supply chain management issues, we will be watching ford slightly off the lows of the morning, but one of the most heavily trade this morning, more on earnings, futures down this morning after disappointing earnings from tech yesterday, we earning apple to under prm form alphabet missed earnings and revenue apple's largest

quarterly revenue deadline since 2016 amazon first in profitable year since 2014 all stocks down off worst levels of the morning, wednesday meta reporting a miss on earnings beat revenue also announced 40-billion-dollar stock buyback plan this morning down a fraction but remember yesterday the stock was soaring up 20%, yesterday alone something dan niles predicted on this program, he contributored it there, joining me right now making money with charles payne host charles payne great to see you big tech had a horrible year, now people are questioning whether out sized gains year-to-date are justified reaction. charles: a lovely people questioning it a lot of people wrote them off last year i thought interesting narrative that is never have sort of of oomph as in past going back throughout history of the market at some point they can't grow the same rate.

but i don't know that we have ever seen a group of companies in history of mankind like these companies, you know, that is why you hear talk or whispers of breaking them up, so, the moves have been pretty huge obviously, nasdaq 100 best january since 2001, pull up charts two-year chart look like maybe they can get sustained growth, will come back i ron i've beening that all got over skis, all of them for the most part announcing job cuts except apple, and, i think the case of meta, sort of now that maturation of ceo, zuckerberg, may be giving up pipe dream stuff metaverse obviously, where they are going the amount of money put into it the amount of people they hired, so, i -- you know i just believe that these are are in portfolio long-term investor i would still hold on

at this point. >> u.s. employers cut almost 103,000 jobs in january charles, up 440%, same time last year tech sector responsible for almost half layoffs, 41% for the first time florida workforce outpaced new york, in december all as we get january jobs reported in about 15 minutes' time, we are dppg, jobs to be added to the economy, and the unemployment rate to be 3.6% but the look. we're seeing a slowdown month after month in jobs charles. what are your thoughts on the unemployment situation catching up with a slowing growth numbers we see. charles: here is the thing. the consensus i know they bet consensus nine months in a row never happened i am a a little bit conspiracy theoryist i think low bailing, the composition is going to be report last year one best thing last two or three years one of the best things has been the able to move from the

leisure jobs, retail jobs transportation and warehousing jobs pay a lot more, you know amazon cutting back all numbers coming back, so we may get 215,000 jobs but if largest partly are lowest paying jobs not going to be a good jobs' report gets back to hourly wages not still able to keep up with inflation, in my opinion, and then the trends the red flags temporary employment month after month after month in decline, so it is i think one of these numbers some point we know going to come down hard lagging indicator still watching for household survey more than establishment survey you know, it is they got lowball number maybe over that particular hurdle i just think the he internals of the force looking weaker and weaker. maria: sure are jay powell talking about disinflation we are not seeing disinflation in

food massive nation in food, energy prices going up again, so, i am not sold on this whole inflation is going away story. that -- that the fed is trying to sell here your thoughts. charles: i think good that he acknowledged though that you know things like housing like manufacturing, other areas, you know starting to fall apart mentioned dissings inflation 1 tiles in december meth didn't mention one time not one time, so because my greatest fare with fed at this point that they overdo it if they overdo it a deep rex extremely painful at least acknowledging we see writing on wall big step right direction for ego driven organization. maria: i think we have a graphic of wall street official expecting a recession this year we will show it charles you are sticking with us for jobs numbers, you are part of our all-hands-on-deck we will see you in a few points tune in to making money

fox business every weekday charles 2 pm eastern thank you charles payne quick break moments away from january jobs' report breakdown everything you need to know see if a market mover all start panel the start after this break, back in a minute. ♪ ♪ ♪ . visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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maria: welcome back. january jobs' report out in about 6 minutes time economists expecting 185,000 jobs added to economy last month unemployment rate coming in 3.6%, joining me right now to break it all down is manpowergroup chief commercial officer becky frankiewicz macromavens president stephanie pomboy, making money host charles payne joining all long michael lee steve moore great to see you this morning, thank you so much for being here let me kick it off with you stephanie pomboy, what are you expecting from jobs numbers expecting a lowdown profits recession. stephanie: i find interesting to me powell sounded muched

more dover iraq than i expected him to sound in press conference the fed has advance look at this number, in addition to this report wks we're going to get revisions to all of last year, so, issue whether it was this report, the january number, or the rate of the overall revisions i a much soften tone in data might be why powell sounded so much more dovish than i expected. but stands to reason, you know we've been talking for months on bond this yawning gap between the payroll survey and household survey, so with each mark revisions might try to resolve that to quantify since fed started raising rates we have and understand two million job gap between the payroll survey sand household survey with pay revolves showing two million more jobs, than the household survey crucially household survey

tends to be much better indicator i am sort of prepared for a softer number but i guest we will find out imminently. maria: what i am asking has anything changed? because a year ago we were talking about, real upset in the economy, you had jamie dimon sake economic hurricane, bank of america jpm others predicting a slowdown but recently had, things have bound off those predictions, jamie walked back the hurricane comment in my interview has anything changed for your in terms of expecting recession in 2023? >>. stephanie: only thing that changed is people's attitudes, complacency level i think of this not as tightening cycle what we've gone through is interest rate shock, so, why are we while we haven't seen the hit bet yi why i am abuse complacency hit is never

coming i think we are about to get bowled over by onslaught of much weaker data as lag effects of rate hikes begin to feed through. so no, nothing has changed in my view i mean rate hikes have still been unprecedented. against a backdrop of an economy that has never been more levered than today those two don't make for nice mix, i don't see where the complacency comes from. >> becky frankiewicz we've been questioning why we still have hundreds of thousands of jobs created in an environment, where growth has slowed quite sharply, what can you tell us from your standpoint at manpowergroup? becky: i would call it pandemic paranoia, employers suffering from overlag overhang of not being able to get workers back after the crisis, so even with the layoffs we saw in december, on average, layoffs run 1.2%, precrisis, they ran 1% in

december so we are still seeing pockets of hiring absolutely has slowed. we are still seeing robust hiring in areas like health medical, retail, watching for hospitality number today we saw employers hiring in anticipation of the demand this pandemic paranoia is still keeping the foot on the accelerator for the hiring for employers even when they likely should be pulling back. maria: i want to really take a look at wages in this report, that is going to be one of the most important issues to watch, steve moore, barry knapp discussed this the other kawith us from ironsides one of the best economists out there talked about wage growth did not start slowing fourth quarter but trend actually began second quarter of 2022 that is what nick timiraos wrote about this week as well, your thoughts what we're going to hear about wages. steve: that is the first thing i want to look at when numbers come out because you are right, over the last year,

the average family lost between 3 and 4,000 dollars of purchasing power, because the wages were up about 5%, but inflation was up you know 7 1/2 to 8%. so this has been a real financial hardship for families, i want to see, if the wage rate is going up faster than the inflation consumer price index we will get numbers in a few minutes i think the key thing we can't keep having, wages falling further and further behind consumer prices or americans bet poorer every month maria. maria: of course, that is what fed is watching this tight labor market, is finally a little looser with wages coming down, michael lee the shock for the market has been the speed. with which fed has conducted this tightening we were at zero for 15 years, suddenly from zero to 5%, in nine months, michael have we seen the shocks in the market or is

there more declines to come. michael: i think stephanie described perfectly earlier last year collapse of housing manufacturing, the likes of which, every time you see have caused a doubling in unemployment rate 15 to 20% correction in earnings. so i don't quite understand, why the market is not seeing that, in terms of the equity markets so today, we need to derail equity market i think we need a huge number to upside or huge number downside destroying with a powell has done or soft lanings -- >> 10 medics left review dow industrials down 71 points, ahead of a report expecting to show 185,000 jobs created in month of january, we are expecting the unemployment rate to be at 3.6%, the numbers are imminent markets negative let's see how markets trade as the numbers come out,

we check wages, cheryl casone dow industrials down -- cheryl: all right, 517,000 jobs were added, 517,000 jobs were added we are looking at an incredible amount right now. maria: a blockbluster. cheryl: blockbuster number of 0.4 what are you telling labor force portion 60.4 let me go through numbers jobless rate 3.4%, so the jobless rate is coming in, weaker than expected the estimate for 3.6% the rate coming in 3.4% again i got to go back to nonfarm number hol yie cow 517,000 jobs out of estimate was 180 -- 158,000, labor force participation rate 62.4, a little bit better than month avenue average hourly earnings private workers .3%, .3% that was in line with expectations.

all private workers' hours 4.7, 4.7, that is a little bit stronger than we were expecting here government jobs 74,000, factory jobs 19,000, private sector jobs, 443,000 private sector jobs guys the estimate 190 -- 197,000 that is an incredible number to be clear here as going through some numbers i'm going through the breakdown, everything i know you are looking at leisure hospitality i will get to that, 517,000 jobs, added 3.4%, is the unemployment rate, that is less than the expectation, .6%, that is actually less than what we had for month of december, manufacturing jobs 19,000 the estimate was 6,000. private payroll reiterate this 443,000 jobs. the estimate was 109. average earnings

month-over-month in line .3%, average earnings year-over-year, a little bit stronger, 4.4%, not less. more. that is interesting steve moore looking over at you again, average workweek hours 4.7 stipulate was 4.3, government jobs 74,000, reiterating labor force, participation 62.4. now let's get into the actual report give you a further breakdown what we're seeing as far as where jobs were created what government is saying i really would like to know as well folks, all right. what they are saying s leisure hospitality, was a gainer in reportedly professional business services, a gain for the report. healthcare, a gain for the report. these are factors the government tells us what really drove the numbers. also saying as far as government, that a lot was return of workers from strike. that is what the government is saying, again, you've got two monthly surveys household

survey, in particular as well. if you move into where actual jobs created leisure hospitality was was a strong one 128,000 jobs created just in leisure hospitality. . >> that. cheryl: this was 89,000 in december, food services drinking places, 99,000 jobs, accommodations hotels, 41,000 -- excuse me no. going back i'm sorry accommodation was 15,000 jobs, so, leisure hospitality back to you i want to go through more of this report but leisure hospitality, is still below pre-pandemic levels. but it is still a big piece of the gains that we saw and i got to go back to healthcare number 58,000 for healthcare. am am beau you latry, nursing, construction 25,000, transportation warehousing 23,000, i am sending back to

youall again this is -- what a surprise that is all i can say what a surprise. maria: yeah much better than expected, and -- this certainly has sparked sell-off in stocks as perhaps markets look at this as less reason for the federal reserve to be cutting interest rates second half of the year most people don't believe anyway, but charles give your assessment of this report, lowest since 1969. charles: the initial knee-jerk reaction a lot lower, so, i heard cheryl mention about people returning from strike, what stands out to me one of the things always pressing on as participation, looks a lot better participation rate that is very, very important. you know, again leisure jobs we knew going to be up pretty high the retail jobs, and kind of concerned still concerned about transition to maybe

higher-paying jobs people with low skills, and -- but just still going through this. i am still watching the markets reaction i am shocked we had initial down 250, 260 dow points come back 100 points something is in this report that is stopping a complete sell-off at the moment i haven't found it yet. cheryl: stephanie pomboy wanted to hearings revisions, 71,000 more jobs were created in november and december than previously records. she waventsdz that number i wanted to throw that out for her. >> reaction. stephanie: gobsmack i don't know where numbers come from everything we see anecdotal empirical on employment from layoff announcements you mentioned earlier to adp raft of layoffs, you know, by companies, especially in tech, tell a to let different story, the one thing i guess would i

note though is is that you have this gangbusters headline number yet wage growth remains fairly tepid i mean we are at 4, 4 on year down from 4.6 last month so you continue to see an easing in wage pressures even in face of what appears to be -- um -- relentlessly strong hiring. so that has to give fed a little bit of comfort but frankly would i be interested to see what happened with with household survey in this number i haven't seen that yet but, you know, i am -- sort of speechless i guess, [laughter]. maria: i mean, the yield on ten year is up almost 8 basis points rate now 3.74% on this report, becky, how do you see this what do you pull out from man power growth that is most compelling here? becky: i would say first amazing blockbluster report

shows american workers firmly in driver's seat labor force and economy second encouraged by small shift in workforce participation i was hoping new year newu, trillion dollars into workers back in workforce notably no one mentioned we saw increase in female workforce participating .2 percentage points not huge every poij point matters 57% well below pre-pandemic female participation, hospitality seen demand skyrocket i am glad some demand was fulfilled in december the top four number four in our country in terms of demand marriott trying to get boomerang workers back that left trying to attracting them back in hospitality, all keep in mind, indicates confidence of employers hiring before demand as they get ready for spring travel i would say a lot of encouragement i agree wages like more movement there but a lot of positive news in this

report. i am not excited about unemployment, you know ticking down a bit more. very, very tight labor market. maria: becky tell us who are big hireers you mentioned marriott because people have been spending money on trips, travel leisure as opposed to buying more stuff. post-pandemic walk us through who is hiring right now. beck great clips franchise hair company number one in terms of demand in country today and number two you in three u.s. navy we've seen several military organizations, actually come into top 10, number four marriott who we are not seeing interesting we have seen amazon top five, for years. and now they've dropped down to top 25, so we are seeing some shifts, some more small, medium companies coming to top i am hoping i was hoping for loosening in labor supply so we could fill more roles, but

good mix in terms of high skill, low skill in the top 25 employers. maria: c also interesting to see construction jobs ro, 7,000 construction jobs, here is the list in terms of sectors real trade adding 30,000 jobs, in month of joan, obviously, by fall, the biggest hireer was leisure hospitality with 128,000 jobs there but transportation, you warehousing 23,000, professional business services 82,000, construction jobs 25,000. steve moore your shots even as we see housing market in recession, with mortgage rates hit close to 7% couple months ago just last few weeks hearing activity, is resuming, and some business getting better, in housing, your thoughts. steve: no recession, there is no recession here, you know. amazing three months ago vast majority said recession was coming they were dead wrong,

so this is a great report. for american workers. i am ecstatic about kind of numbers i have love to see american economy, looking stronger. the -- we mentioned the wage issue, that cheryl also mentioned those numbers looks like now, as i look at the numbers wages are rising at about the pace of inflation, so there is is still not making up for the losses, that were incurred last year at least not loving money relative to inflation, by the way, it is the small business and medium business sector that is make up for those losses. with the big companies, like the -- amazons, and the googles of the world so that is good news as well, how to hard to find anything not to like about this let the record reflect 37 one thing i am wondering about though is because we have an extremely tight labor market late now that is to say it is a workers' market, i think you

are going to see upward pressure on wages, now, and we will see how wall street responds to that. maria: are i mean look average hourly earnings up /10 of a percent, stephanie pomboy we have been talking about wages one of the points of federal reserve you can't call it a tiebt labor market anymore if you got loosening in wages right are you buying this? >> doesn't seem to anticipated up wage prers abating second month in a row we posted a .3% increase, show you analyze that .6% wage growth down from where were we almost 7% at the peak, so that is a pretty substantial slowing frankly it come ports with all indicators we're seeing in broken record fashion i underscore every

time we look at these numbers, number one input in piring is profit growth. not profit level, the rate of change. and so, when looking down the barrel at earnings recession, you know to say nothing of the slow don seen in profit growth this all going to hit with a lag, we have to remember, that employment is a lagging indicator never more so than coming out of a pandemic hard time hiring people. you are going to be very reluctant to let them go right away going to wait and see as this prolonged slow don or is this just a temporary -- you know stubing of the toe going to take a while temporary, slowed layoff announcements going up i will note that in adp survey it was small businesses that were actually letting go of people, stands to reason because they don't have the economies of scale to

handle hi input costs they are the ones really bearing the brunt of these relentless increases in energy prices, and, you know, other inputs to their business operations, so, their margin pressure is much more profound than it is for high you know the top companies, nevertheless i think clearly this is just you know, going to take a while to get the employment shoe to drop, but a drop it will. . >> i ban the to get hear from you mike lee let me just say i just spoke to dan niles who totally crushed on tech sector told us buy meta short google, that definitely played out, meta up 56%, year-to-date but dan says all estimates on these tech companies are going to come down, he thinks the rally in tech ended today. and next five to 10% move lower is in s&p 500, meekly lee walk us through this performance, and this response from markets, dow industrials

down 191 right now. michael: i would have thought, outlier number like this more traditional selling see if selling accelerates because when you still have jobs numbers like this, people will starting believe chair powell he says does not see rate cuts, later this year, so if -- if that is the case, and we start believing it you could see, a correction in this market. but, considering the outlier to the upside we had in this jobs market, i would have expected, interest rates to be up more, stocks to be down further so i am a bit surprised this employment data is very much devoid of all the other leading economic data we're seeing from manufacturing, from the -- new orders, in the -- survey data, as well as all housing data so there is a disconnect here, maybe it is the labor market

shifting post-pandemic but, these data points you know this labor data does not coincided with what we're seeing everywhere else to use stephanie's worse perplexing is probably best way to put it. maria: also perplexing how many wall street stemz are predicting a recession charles payne let me show you the graphic, of what some of the major officials were saying two months ago, okay, a month ago even, we've got goldman sachs, bank of america, jpmorgan all titans of business predicting a real tough 2023. and this morning these jobs numbers show that perhaps it is not as bad as we thought? your thoughts? >> a. charles: to jay powell presser he seem more optimistic i think jay powell told the world he thinks he can engineer soft landing going to hear from him next week i could the wait the big market mover next week a,

couple great points were made, someone talked about the wages, you know this kind of demand, this kind of job growth you would have thought maybe, maybe there would have been more wage pressure. pt or maybe there is a you know maybe enough people offside lines on participation side they met in the middle what is wage number jay powell can live with obviously, wants participation higher wants to see people come in want to see facing go down, and of, the other part to this, i watch the market for the just sort of a tell, i am not sure why not falling apart combine this narrative good news is supposed to be bad news, all earnings reports we have from big juggernauts last night compelling store that, you know, you sit back you don't want to make real assumptions an investor based on headlines enthough headlines tell you

one thing right now action telling you something completely different. maria: where does this go charles? what are you expecting in terms of federal reserve read on this report? charles: you know, this week we have federal reserve imf goldman sachs all more or less no recession, again, you know, and soft landing. this i kind of think might fit to a degree jay powell's narrative when he talked tighter financial conditions was more or less referring to chicago financial conditions next, over longer period of time, last week lael brainard also referred to same thing, they are giving more wiggle room, i don't think this upsets his narrative in fact to degree may actually help to your point 37 wall street delegate us all doom and gloom so far we haven't seen become nearly as close to the doom and gloom advertised. >> maria. >> we haven't seen go ahead steve. steve: we've been talking in recent months about this -- um

-- divide between household survey number of jobs, and the establishment survey. and so what has been happening is the establishment survey numbers were way higher than the household survey numbers, and so, we've all been saying those numbers you are going to have to converge over time the question really has been, you know was the household survey, to a low or was the establishment survey too high what we saw day, was a huge, huge increase in the household survey if i read right 800,000, so, looks like these numbers have been kind of revised upward, and that is good news for american worker. maria: are a um-hmm yeah, one -- go ahead. >> i want to explain that. cheryl: stephanie pomboy mentioned this into the report i want to bring this up, there has been some changes to the household survey data revisions stephanie was talking about for last year it is population kinds of

connecting to the census not going too deep population controls rereflect annual update population estimates by u.s. bureau could be reason gigantic swing upside could have been downsized we saw it go to upside on report i had to have throw that out there a piece the market selling off more than it had i stand corrected initially we knew this going into report all data for this report first two weeks of the month of january, okay even this week seen, google, ford microsoft amazon gold goal, list of dependency too long to cite announced layoffs the technology remember workers getting huge a lot of times big payout packages, getting big -- severance packages applyouts sometimes month to

-- salary offered in tech space did they go and file that unemployment claim? may be they haven't i'm throwing that out to think about. maria: i want to zero in on market performance down 252 right now dow industrials, stephanie is this all about the idea that it looks like the fed doesn't have to cut rates after all in second half? i mean is this what this whole rally has been based on year-to-date that fed is going to cut rates in second half when half didn't believe nay. stephanie: a one hundred percent maria i mean you can see that if you just follow the fed funds futures market where you know the fed even when it has, showing they expected fed funds rate to peak at 5 1/4, the fed funds futures market was not putting anything that high in the forecast, then, as you said, had two cuts before the end of the year. so i know they have been

looking for he reinforcement of that narrative on wednesday i was surprised how dovish he sounded but, clearly, you know this is -- that appears to be a shrinking probability now given this report. i would on this whole question about household versus payroll this particularly strong number like to just underscore, and i don't want to get people too deep in sausage factor how they make these numbers but they do seasonally justify numbers which they need to do january is different from july. but what is crucial is that january is the largest turnover month, the economy generally sheds well in excess of a million workers, in january. as people you know worked holiday retail jobs et cetera, the -- so there is a huge amount of seasonal noise in this number, this january

report is crowing to voluntarily swings i am reluctant to embrace this as true state of employment growth but proof will be in pudding maria we are go to get retail sales numbers consumer spending numbers for january, if employment was this strong wage growth solided should fling pocketbooks open, skipping down aisles we will see if we get numbers if it col ports with consumers. >> we have seen consumers change strategies jobs aligning with that leisure hospitality leading group in terms of hiring. >> maria, just i just want to say market has sold so of substantially over the last couple minutes, you now have nasdaq down close to 2% that is reaction i was expecting, from if a blowout number to

the upside, that -- i still think these seasonal adjustments stephanie just mentioned have a lot of noise in this number. and i am also still skeptical because we are looking at roughly 165 1/2 million were participants in the labor force workers employed u.s. citizens, in december 2019 over 164 million so somehow, three years later, to roughly 2 1/2 to three million people entering labor force unemployment rate 2.4%, with, only less than a million more people working. so the bureau labor statistics puts this together i have seen it before in retail numbers, after government shutdowns, i think some adjustments need to be made to their stall is it a tiest cal mold doesn't make sense to anything we are seeing the market cease this

as net negative they believe fed will hold until end of this year as you were discussing i am firmly in that camp, because if inflation were to fall off the cliff, then come back after the fed would cut, i mean that would ruin destroy all credibility the federal reserve has left after the this transitory debacle printing nine trillion dollars to inflate stock market, whatever, it is the fed is a very, very limited crediting at the moment know a risk timiraos said, disinflation deflation could be transitory if it comes back not only devastating to fed he can creditability if they cut too early but for the u.s. economy. >> the time fed said absolutely no 75 basis points point hike not talking about it, not on table hike three or four times 75 basis points.

>> we still have not felt bulk just now beginning to feel it in our economy the first 75 basis points hike will continue to feel that into thank you know end of first quarter second quarter other one coming after, look. i still am not bullish short term on u.s. economy a lot of money sloshing around that has been pushed off higher massive short squeeze turned into momentum trade yesterday frantic call buying to try to inflate stock prices with the squeeze we may see market take this? stride for the time being, i continue to think, earnings recession, u.s. economic recession. maria: yeah becky how do you see it give us your sense of how 2023 plays out in light of numbers. becky: i want to bring american worker back into the conversation, maria, because they are still showing confidence, even as consumer confidence fell off in january, we haven't seen had quits quit rate fall below four million in 19 months, 19

months, to have you step back say why are worker continuing to change jobs in it goes to wages. so if you stay with your employer, by our analysis you made 7% increase in wages last year, if you move jobs, you've made 15% more in wages, so make no mistake, the american worker is competent in skills about the change of jobs i think will continue to see that especially with this blockbluster report. maria: for sure, that is what we're expecting, here, with retail, even showing job growth steve moore your thoughts on what this means, for the next couple weeks in terms of economic data to come, are we going >> you know, i like what becky just said, you know, the fact when people are changing jobs, they're getting wage increases. you know what that's calledsome upward mobility. people calling up the economic ladder. i think one of the most

important things we're seeing here is finally, finally, finally people are getting back into the work force. you can't get out of poverty in this country if you're not working. but we still saw -- have a lot of room to the quote in -- to go in getting those workers that have been on is the sideline since the beginning of covid, maria, getting them back in the work force. why are we still paying all of these extra, you know, government benefits? maybe now is the i'm the cut back on some of these benefits, because the jobs are out there right now. maria: okay. and we are looking at a market that is down 212, and the nasdaq down in the triple digits as well well,. as michael pointed out. steve moore, jump in here in terms of your thoughts on the market's reaction to this number this morning. >> is that for me? maria: yeah, steve. >> you know, i am actually a little surprised the market hasn't sold off more because you

would think that this is, this would mean that the fed can now if, you know, raise rates a little bit more to get the inflation out of the system. you know, i'm puzzled by these wage numbers because i do think you're going to see mt. months ahead -- in the months ahead more wage push inflation. i think you're going to see workers now, they're in command, right? they're going to the start asking for wage gains, and i'm in favor of workers getting paid more, but that's going to the put a lot of pressure, don't you think, on the profits of companies. and what impact will be will that have on the stock market? maria: yeah,st a great point. peter bookbar writes in his book report if the bureau of labor thattist thetics is anywhere chose to being accurate, productivity is plunging and margins are in trouble. that's what you've been talking about, stephanie, margins being in trouble. all this roll areover of debt concern rollover of debt. and also i just want to point out something that dan niles

said to me. he said when you look at structurally bankrupt stocks like bed bath & beyond or cvna, they're ripping higher. rationality is not in play. >> yeah. 100%. i mean, this is the thing, even if we assume that the fed does pivot in june as the market expects and they cut 50 basis points, you still are not going to avert a massive increase in debt the service to the companies. junk yields were 4% before they started tightening, they're 8% now. maria: all right. >> so they're going to the face this, and we're going to see a lot of corporate bankruptcies in 2023. maria: we'll leave it there. great conversation, everybody. thank you. of have a great weekend, everybody. "varney & company" begins right now. suh, take it away. -- stu, ache the it away. stuart: here we go, a jam-packedded friday from