>> all right. let's get straight to where your money is working this morning or not working for you. and i'm afraid to say we've got disappointing sales and outlook from dell. all right, nicole, how bad is it? >> it's bad. this morning, we're going to see dell looking to the down side. 5, 6, 7%, depending where we're opening here and looking lower and their numbers are not good and their forecast is not good and the analyst note intense competition from apple abroad and leno vo. stuart: the pc market, i don't know whether it's shrinking, but it's not growing rapidly, is it. >> no, a stock for the second half. overall and a lot of customers are in the wait and see mode and

na doesn't bode well and hewlett pact down along with dell. stuart: and hewlett-packard have they got their numbers out later or selling before they get the numbers out? what's going on? >> well, they're just down along with dell and this is just the pc market story overall. i mean, we're going to see this, the tech stocks under pressure and the home builders taking off and that's our theme. stuart: what we're looking for in ten minutes and thanks, nicole, we appreciate it. will the obama team really try to take credit for the big run-up in the dow and the s&p? we're close to four year highs on those two indicators. who should take credit for this? and joining the company from los angeles is gilmore ral less with the best named company on the planet, virtual investing.com. all right, the dow and s&p 500 at 4 year highs and gold moved up to 1640. who takes the credit? why are these markets going up like this?

>> well, i don't think the obama administration can take credit, because you can't point to any policies that have led to any sort of economic boom. we've got unemployment over 8% for more than 40 months now and you've got over 45 million people on foot stamps and a percent of the u.s. paplation, so-called job machines like solyndra going bank result and shovel ready jobs that aren't shovel ready. and it's mostly the-- qe. stuart: hold on, you're saying that the fed is printing, may print more and mario over in europe may do the same. and you're placing the credit for the gold rally on money printing. >> if you want to call it credit. that's the main influence for the market rally. in real terms the market hasn't rally $that much at all.

1640 on gold. i always come to you for a look at gold. because i know you're a trading, now, you don't sell this stuff. you're not grinding an ax, you're a trader of this. are you now buying that? >> we actually got a buy signal on gold this past friday and then a buy signal on silver on monday and so we're actually playing silver because it looks like more leverage on the upside, it seems to be moving qui quicker here, as long as gold is it 1620 level and silver 28 price level the rally is intact on at that buy signal so we're in play looking for a move to the upside here and tell you that there is some qe in the offing here and that's what they're telling right now. >> how about the stock market? is there any area that you're buying into at the moment? can you tell us? >> well, we've been buying weeks' buying in august, but, as i told you before. in other appearances i've been approaching the market mostly as an active trader. in other words, if we have a 20% gain in a stock or a nice move

in the market for several, several days, we'll sell into that. so, yesterday. we actually sold all of our stock and went back into cash on that basis looking to buy back into a pull back. i think it's more a traders market than, say, an investors market. >> is that how you operate, gill? you're all in or all out on a daily basis? >> we try to identify trends and there have been periods i've been long the markets several months, even more than a year. but the markets that we've seen in this decade, i've said in the 2000's recently have been choppy and mostly news related and qe fueled in our view and so they're mostly choppy trading markets so we just adjust to the market so if we find a nice clean up side trend and we see that for a long period of time. we could have a romney rally if we start changing the administration and that's could sustain a bull market. and that's what we're looking

for. >> and gill morales, thank you, see you soon. we're seeing a shift in the polls, especially in key swing states toward mitt romney. where at least, am i reading the polls correctly? there's a good question. mr. sabato is joining us next and the latest attack on the republicans. listen to this. >> over the objections, do they sound like squealing pigs, over the objections.

is >> one minute to the opening bell. you can expect trading to be on hold, pretty much for the first half hour of business today. and that's because at ten o'clock, half hour after the opening of trading, we're going to get two big numbers. first off are existing home sales numbers and the interest part there is it month to month increase or decrease in the number of existing homes sold. and very important indicator for the housing market. which recently has been showing a few glimmers of hope. and the second from the congressional budget office in the annual review and outlook of the economy and our debt situation and that's an interesting pointer, how strong is our rate of growth and how big is our debt. and those two numbers are coming

out at ten o'clock this morning, you'll have them promptly at 10 and until then, expect the market to drift a little bit. probably drifting lower, 30, 40 points in the first half hour of business and there's also something going on in europe. several meetings to be pre advice and angela merkel are meeting somebody and they're meeting together to discuss their ongoing financial crisis. here is the story. if there's any sign that angela merkel will bail out the rest of europe, the market will go up. if there's any sign that they'll hold it tightly, the market will go down. the basic rule of european finance. to the big board we're off and running this trading session, and the dow industrials have indeed opened slightly on the down side and that's what we're expecting and that we do have better than expected profit at a retailer, whose name i know, and a place that i occasionally shop at. that would be williams and sonoma and i've been charged for a spatula and 6.95 for a

grapefruit knife. where did the stock open? >> it's funny, someone just like you is out there. and they're great. the numbers come in, and the stock is moving to new highs this morning, it's at 9 1/2%, 3.62. so they really did well with their quarter for the profit. they raised their outlook. >> and i always think of williams-sonoma as the whole foods of kitchen gadgetry. are you with me on at that? >> i don't disagree, but here is the thing, i'm really going to have to experiment with whole foods. one is opening near my house tomorrow. and so, and i never, really never went there because they don't sell lucky charms, i'll check it out. let now in a week. stuart: the guy who started the place is a libertarian sort of fellow and the clientele is strictly-- >> and dell, i know it's down, how far down. >> dell has been under serious pressure here, down over 4%, as

we noted the pc market seems to be soft, but dell in particular and well below the analyst sentiment and it's hit and down 4.9% and hewlett-packard is down with it and hewlett-packard is one of the reasons it's down 2% and that's the number one loser. and the pc market is just not going anywhere, is it? the alternatives have just taken over. >> thank you very much indeed. we have the dow jones industrial average down 15 points and as we expected, very much another flat market on very low volume. you may get some market new moving news at ten o'clock, but the home sales numbers and the cvo's look at the economy, but that's 18 minutes from now, 28 minutes from now and we'll see what happens at 10. the obama administration barbs the pretty industry by day and night. the white house pushed the carlyle group to push for an oil

refinely in philadelphia. and oil advisor spurling asked, i should say begged carlisle to get involved and then helps the private equity firm get concession froms unions and other officials because the obama team feared much higher gas prices would slam the refinery couldn't be saved. please note much maligned bain capital. that's a private equity company and we'll talk more about the aspects of political equity. back to the big story of the day, the paul ryan veep pick is giving a bump in the polls and the new numbers are from democrat leading sources. first in michigan, in that state, romney leads president obama 48-44. and if paul ryan's home state, wisconsin, the governor gets 48% of the vote and president obama gets 4. larry sabato, from university of virginia, center for politics, thanks for joining us as always, i want to know am i reading the

latest polls correctly? because i'm saying that locally, michigan and wisconsin and nationally, there is a very slight, but firm drift to romney. am i reading them right? >> sure. take the-- take the long run, which i think you have to do with polling. if you go back to the month or so after romney locked down the republican nomination, there was a gap of 5 or 6 points between president obama and mitt romney, now, i think it's more like 2. the 2 or 3, the average nationally has clearly scoped in and we've seen a narrowing of the gap in some of the key swing states and even some that weren't originally considered swing states like wisconsin. so, yeah, there is a bit of a bump. part of it's paul ryan, but part of it i think is a natural closing because the economic conditions almost demand that this will be a closely contested

competitive contest. is the economy issue front and center, first and foremost above all other cautious, is it the economy? >> oh, absolutely. and people say to me all the time, but we're not discussing the economy, we're discussing medicare, we're discussing todd akin, you know, look. the campaign operates at two levels, one levels what the media chatters about on tv. you know, not being insulting, but that's one level. the other level is how people decide how they're going to vote and their decisions are based on fundamental basic factors that affect their lives and the economy is number one, number two and number three. >> okay, i want you to just listen to a quick sound bite by vice-president biden, attacking republicans and using strong language, go. >> over the objections and-- over the of romney and all his allies, we passed some of the toughest wall street

regulations in history, turning wall street back into the allocator of capital it always has been and no longer a casino and they want to repeal it. stuart: okay, he used the expression squealing like pigs and the chains analogy previously. he's going to be in tampa, right in the middle of the convention. and i just ask you out of interest, because a lot of our viewers say, this is unusual behavior for a vice-president. do you think it's a tactful factor in the election and any kind of factor in the polls? >> i'm a mineralist when it comes to vice-presidential nominees, occasionally they affect the results of the election, but rarely. usually by november they've faded into the background. that's not to say that vice-president biden's activities are not news worthy, you've thought about publishing a book, the book of biden gaffe, it would be as long as war and peace. for the democrats, they really

ought to apply something president obama has learned to vice-president biden. president obama's learned to use teleprompters. if there were ever an argument to be made for teleprompters, it would be applied to vice-president biden. if you can get him to stick to the script. >> i think you're wrong about this year's vice-presidential pick in paul ryan. forgive me for saying it, but i think he's turned around the romney gain. a breath of fresh air, impossible to demonize the man. you can't hate paul ryan, i think he's made a difference. >> no, i'm not saying that he isn't-- he hasn't strengthened romney about the base, i think he has. i think he's energized a lot of republicans who weren't excited about mitt romney, but you know, in the end. ins an election about the incumbent. the incumbent polarized people into two camps and many of the people who become excited by paul ryan would have been there for mitt romney at least in the

voting booth. the difference ryan has made is in perhaps getting them to volunteer more. to give more money. and those things do have indirect effects on the final vote so he we agree more than we disagree on this. >> write that book, sir, it would be a best seller, the biden book of gaffes, larry, thanks indeed. we always appreciate it. >> thank you. stuart: a federal judge, a federal judge rules that poker is a game of skill not a game of chance. and therefore, it should not be considered gambling, poker, not gambling. and this is a big deal because it could clear the way for on-line poker to be legalized in the u.s. and our judge will join us at the top of the hour to discuss this ruling and what it means going forward. that will be new at 10. and back to nicole. ebay, what, another new high today? you want to tell me why? >> another new high and ebay,

the eye 47.50. and paypal and discover, now with a whole new deal, an industry milestone and what's going to happen, folks can go to the store, to brick and mortar stores, over 7 million merchants to take discover will begin to take paypal and that will begin in 2013. so this is a really big deal in the industry and that's why you see ebay at a new high. >> it is a big deal. if you want to define what is money. it's not the bills, the green in my pocket. it's an electronic blip now, is it? that's most important. >> that's right, it's about the electronic technology, fascinating stuff. >> nicole, always a pleasure. the dow industrial down indeed was we suggested, 21 points as we speak. time is money, 20 seconds worth of what else we're watching for you. will the glimmer of hope we've seen on the housing market continue? today we'll get the latest existing home sales numbers right at ten o'clock and you'll get them, too.

and also, right at 10. the latest numbers from the cbo. that will be the congressional budget office and the freshest estimates on economic growth and federal deficits for the next ten years, and facebook, relying on ads that pop up on your blackberries and iphones to bring in revenurevenue, will th work? they'll provide the technology to put that on the mobile phone. he'll be with us. what do you think of issues that we discuss? we want to know. varney@foxbusiness.com is how you reach us. all right, 9:40 eastern, 7 early movers this morning. dell, it disappoints and lowers the forecast and of course, that stock is down another 6%. better than expected profits over at williams and sonoma, an upscale kitchen gadget kind of place, up 3.50. and lazy boy took in more than expected and virtually no change. and fifth-third bank says the fed approved the request for 25%

dividend increase, and that stock is up 3 1/2%. software maker, intuit, swung to a profit. gave a cautious outlook. and wet seal reported a decline in sales and it's down 8%. and let's not forget facebook, where are we this wednesday morning? shy of $20 a share. 1925, to be precise. more fallout from obamacare, one state plans to grab more money from private insurance to pay for the cuts coming from obamacare. and it will transfer, unless people like our next guest can stop it. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

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>> well, you know what? they came out early and we do have the existing home reports for the month of july. it's not great reading. homes are selling at an annual rate of 4.47 million. and that's not robust by any means and back in the good ole days you could tell, 5, 6, almost 7 million homes a year and now an annual rate of 4.47 million. that's up 2% from a year ago, and that's not much. however, here is some interesting news, the median price of homes that sold was up 9% from a year ago, and the median is now 187.3. so, it's kind after mixed bag. no impact on the stock market whatsoever, and the dow is down 15 before the numbers were released or came out, i should say and now it's down 3, so, no market impact, but we do have, i've got to say, a pretty, pretty dull housing market and

you're only selling 4.7, 4 1/2 million homes a year, that's not great. i want to you check the price of oil and that's important for future gas prices and pretty close to $97 a barrel. gas prices up again overnight and bringing the national average, still holding at 3.71, but look at diesel. that's important, $4 is the average that you truckers are playing. part of the plans for medicare and medicaid saving money by cutting payments to hospital. a group of hospitals in maryland wants to make up for the lost money by charging private insurance more. and maryland state representative, tony o'donnell joins us right now. tony, have i got this right. obamacare, cuts payments to hospitals. and in maryland, the hospitals then want to turn around and charge private insurance more to make up for the government gap. that's what's proposed for maryland, is that correct? >> that's right, stuart. and you know, it's the fallacy of being able to save money in

medicare, by reducing the payments to hospitals. their costs are relatively fixed and you know, they can find efficiencies, but one of the easy ways is for them to simply look to private insurance providers and raise their costs, and this is-- >> more of a money transfer, isn't it? because, well, if less goes from the government to hospitals and then hospitals charge me, privately insured more, money has gone from there, and actually, it's come out of me, and gone over there, that's what happened. >> yeah, that's exactly right, stuart. they're looking at the average hospital admission in maryland going up $900 for the average person who has private insurance or is self-insured. so, you know, you talk about gas prices going up and food prices are going up and now our hospital costs are going up and it's brought to you by the same people who claim to be looking out for the little guy, right from the obama administration to governor o'malley in maryland, and nancy pelosi and steny hoyer, the whole lot. they look to the same people and

think alike and want to raise taxes on the little guy and planning to protect them. >> and you're a resident in maryland and you'll try to stop this. >> that's right. if you don't stop it, other states run by the left, shall we say, are going to follow suit and this would be a pattern nationwide. if you can't nip it in the bud in maryland. >> that's right. they look to maryland, which is a hot bed of liberalism, to push the stuff through as at hook and then to shove it through in other states and i have to tell you one of the reasons i'm running for congress as well. we have to change this mentality and i'm running against steny hoyer, a national liberal leader, nancy pelosi is from maryland. it's time to change the stuff and change their way of looking at things and put the country back on the right track. you're right, stuart and i'm looking forward to changing it. >> we appreciate you being here and bringing the story to us, i think it's very important for my pocket book and everybody

else's, too. and tony, thank you for joining us. >> thanks, stuart. >> coming up on 9:50, here is your morning gold report. a gain of only 40 cents, but 1643. a number to watch. and a fan of football watchers, michael strahan with a big new game. and lori rothman will join us. and rather when he joined me. i think that the winner of the super bowl this year will be the new york jets. am i on the ball or what? >> stuart you absolutely know nothing about football. [laughter] [ male announcer ] if you have to take care of legal matters.

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>> you set that record when you sacked brett favre, as i recall. but in my personal opinion, breath took a tumble for you, didn't he? . [laughter] >> who ever is feeding you these notes, i'm going to beat them up. [laughter] michael, okay. and didn't really say that. the guy threatening to beat up the entire "varney & company"

staff including myself is kelly ripa's new co-host, yes, fox nfl analyst michael strahan will reportedly be the replacement for regis philbin. it was suppose today come in september, but the news leaked out. >> it's interesting he's a football guy, mr. strahan, abc and espn has football interest and has a tie-in. stuart: wait a second, wait a second. >> i mistook him for michael irving formerly of the cowboys. stuart: lori referred to the guy in football to throws the ball, the quarterback, lori referred to him as the thrower. >> i meant the receiver, i was trying to figure out who the receiver was and i have a pretty decent understanding. stuart: no, wait, wait, he's an expensive end. >> a defensive end, and i'll tell you i did a speech with michael strahan and sadly they

wanted more autographs from him than me. >> shocking, shocking. stuart: that was a fun segment. welcome to the company. >> thank you. stuart: new at 10, we're about to break some important numbers for you, right at ten o'clock sharp and we get the economic deficit and growth and the fiscal cliff is the government going to predict a recession beginning next yeek, that news is about to break and you'll get it. it's next

you see us, at the start of the day. on the company phone list that's a few names longer. you see us bank on busier highways. on once empty fields. everyday you see all the ways all of us at us bank are helping grow our economy. lending more so companies and communities can expand, grow stronger and get back to work. everyday you see all of us serving you, around the country, around the corner. us bank.

>> we are moments away from getting the official government projections for economic growth and jobs about to be released from the congressional budget office coming up in 20 seconds. to the big board, here is where we are, before these numbers were released and we are down 8 points. i would call that a flat market. and here is the company that will comment on all of this. lori rothman is here, and former clinton advisor doug schoen is here and on the floor of the exchange, nicole petallides, straight to peter, what's the news on the projections for the economy and jobs? >> well, hey, stuart. the congressional budget office out with its latest forecast and it projects that the deficit will shrink to 640 billion dollars next year, from 1.1 trillion this year, and, but that assumes that the fiscal cliff here in washington actually happens at the end of the year. and that all of the bush tax cuts expire and all of those spending cuts mandated under last year's debt ceiling deal take effect and as a result, the

cbo says that if that happens, the economy will fall into a significant recession next year, and contract by about 500 billion dollars in less government spending, and that would equal about 3% of gdp and that would send the unemployment rate back it up to 9%. and all of that assumes that congress does not act with the white house to make changes in current law. stuart. stuart: let me get this straight. are they saying a million fewer jobs if we go, a million lost jobs, 1 million, if we go over that fiscal cliff? the cbo is assuming we go over the cliff. we raise taxes, we cut spending, and they say the result of that will be 1 million fewer jobs and a recession, and is that correct? >> that's right. because, it projects that the unemployment rate would go to about 9% from about 8, 8.3% now and that would equal more than a million jobs. >> now, do they make any

projection in you make the assumption that we do not go over the fiscal cliff? something happens to relievers of the tax hikes and the spending cuts. do they make any projection in that event? >> it does. it has what it calls its alternative fiscal scenario and part of its jobs here is to give congress, layout the options for it and so it assumes that the bush tax cuts are extended, and that the spending cuts do not happen and as a result, the economy would continue to grow at a moderate pace. >> and what moderate pace, do they say, 2%, less, what is it? >> yeah, about 2.2% next year, and then, rising to, i believe, 3% in the outyears. >> and peter good stuff. take a look at it. take a look at the big board, these numbers have been out for a couple of minutes and we really do not have any significant market reaction. remember, please, the cbo is projecting that if we go over

that fiscal cliff, that is raise taxes and cut spending, we will head to a recession and a million plus jobs will be taken out of the economy, and the unemployment rate goes to 9% and that's if we go over the fiscal cliff. briefly, let's get back to nicole, dell, hewlett-packard, two big lose earnings, how is it. >> the dow is down 6 1/2% right now and we talk about the fact that sales have been weak and now, they've had to lower their guidance so their outlook now is going to be below the analyst estimates and also the fact that they just be facing intense competition from leno vo, apple of course and the pc market is soft for the back half of the year and these are some the reasons why we're seeing dell lower, and the bric nations. stuart: thank you, nicole. the dow industrials down 8 points, no significant reactions for the cbo projections for the

outlook for the economy. let's get back to the company. we have two key polls that show a bump for governor romney in two key starts. first off michigan, 48% of the vote and president obama 44. and this was poll was by a democrat leaning organization. and same in wisconsin democrat leaning company. 48-47 and doug, i'm putting this primarily to a paul ryan bump. what do you say? >> i say it's a modest paul ryan bump and the national polls a couple of points and there's some apparent movement in michigan and wisconsin and other polls say the opposite. bottom line, the question, stuart, is coming out of the democratic and republican conventions, will this grip hold or will obama gain 2 points back he's lost? >> my premise for the last few days has been that there is a gradual small shift towards mitt romney.

and not for president obama. 's he not gaining any ground, it's romney that's gaining ground and i think that holds true in the latest polls. >> it's interesting, first of all, look at the name of the poll and did a question, and we're inundated with the hyper information, there are so much-- there is so much information out there. >> that's for sure. >> if you take the information in sum it shows a shift toward romney, and especially interesting in michigan and wisconsin, obviously, so that shows that that was a good choice, but what also struck, came to mind, doug and stuart, remember ryan had a gm factor in his district that went under and he voted, and he voted in favor of the auto bailout and wonder if it plays in favor of the states turning to paul ryan. stuart: and i believe it was, janesville. and one last one. the nbc wall street journal poll, national poll shows that mr. romney is closing the gap with obama. another trend towards romney. >> 2, 3, 4 points. >> and one key point, stuart. romney has a likability gap.

bottom line, if he can't deal with that at the convention, it will be very difficult for him to get elected. stuart: okay, we've dealt with the latest economic news, we've dealt with the polls and the market reaction and now this, is one road sign that truckers probably or certainly do not want to see. diesel $4 a gallon. yes, that is now the national average price for a gallon of diesel. it may have been even higher if not for private equity. get this, carlisle, that's a private equity company. >> the best. >> and they invested 200 million dollars in a refinery in philadelphia. they did that to keep it operating. and now, we're learning, thanks to our friends at the wall street journal that the white house pushed for that deal. and so, you bash private equity by day, and namely bain, and you beg them for help by night. namely carlisle. >> hipocracy at its best, stuart. and what's more, the 850 union

jobs in pennsylvania. and-- >> democratic state and the other thing that the wall street journal article said, it was a bipartisan effort involving the republican governor of pennsylvania, tom corbitt for 24 million into the deal. if you can get democrats and republicans cooperating, stuart. you get better policy. >> i know you're still a democrat. >> a bipartisan democrat. but away from the whole issue of hipocracy. and beat up on bain capital because mitt romney used to one a bain capital ramp and oh, no, you begged private equity, please, save that refinery. >> and the complicated business of private equity. >> i think the attacks on private equity were ill founded and lori is absolutely right. and stuart, not all democrats are populous and anti-business. stuart: you play defense pretty well, i've got to say. >> i'll take it wherever i can get it. >> is that guy strahan a defensive end? >> a defensive end with lots of

sacks. stuart: sacks. >> when you get the quarterback like just gets the ball and defensive players get him before he can release the ball, right. stuart: there's something about a scotts accent edenboro has an upper class. sex as in s-e-x is pronounced sex. and i'm trying to liven up a morning in mid august. >> and prince harry's pictures released. then you decide if you want to report on it. stuart: no. and nicole, facebook, where is it? >> well, facebook is down slightly. so we know obviously, it's hit hard and you have yesterday, noted it sold off a majority of shares for 400 million dollars and there's 100 million left and the sale was scheduled ahead of time and still, another director today showing that he also sold some shares, but look at zynga, you talk about your phantom pigs and such. zynga down about 70% and new to

date. they're getting a pop on an analyst upgrade. so, looking good today and start the market outperform by js securities. a good day for zynga, but the truth is it's 3 bucks and this was almost 16 back in march. >> 3 bucks is 3 bucks, nicole, thank you. >> 3 bucks doesn't buy you a starbucks. stuart: it doesn't. it's not called starbucks, it's called poor bucks, nicole in my house. thank you very much, nicole. one of the big questions facing mark zuckerberg and facebook, can they monetize the smart phone users? later on this program in this hour, we have a man who makes the technology to allow smart phones to run ads, that's big and it's new. he joins us at 10:35. and if you've ever lost at poker, you probably think the game is all luck. but when you win, of course, it's skill. right? maybe a federal judge whose name is jack weinstein, maybe a

winning player and the game is not for chance. all rise, our judge is here. >> let me get this straight. a case is brought in court, it's a criminal case, a criminal the defendant is indicted for maintaining an organized gambling establishment in which, the house takes a percentage of the pot. the game is a gentlemtexas hold in fact, in the opinion points out how, the supreme court justice william o'douglas used to play this with franklin delano roosevelt in the white house. he's indicted, convicteded and moves to dismiss on the grounds that poker is not gambling, and the court grants the motion in a 120 page opinion, everything you need today know and much more than you wanted to know about pok poker, so the judge says that poker is not gambling.

>> well, he says that it's pre nom ne predominantly buffing and you know the song, hold em and fold em. and says it's a skill. lottery is truly gamble and buy a ticket and see if they want to win. poker, you make informed pets and to withdraw when you think you're going to lose and those decisions involve skill. >> now, let's get to the knitty gritty here, regardless what the judge thinks, whether it's gambling or not. this ruling stands. does it not open up the door for internet poker which would be huge? >> other judges, other federal trial judges are free to reject this judge's opinion. dougy and i are smiling he's often rejected a very, very unique and maverick judge. >> 85 years old. >> 85 years old. he doesn't wear a robe, he doesn't sit on the bench, he sits down in the well of the court with the the lawyers, he's been doing this for years.

stuart: why? >> some appellate judges love him. others as soon as they see his name on an opinion they already are pre-dispose today reversal, but in this case, he heard days and days of testimony from serious economists, and some skills calledeconmetrician all of this in a 120-page opinion and says it's more skill than gambling. and here is what you have, is the legislature free, is the congress free to say we declare as matter of law that poker is gambling. yes, the congress is free to do so and has not done so. stuart: and will not do so. >> certainly will not do so for the remainder this have year. stuart: let me summarize in ten seconds flat. judge weinstein will be overturned and it's a meaningless ruling and congress will not fact to legalize poker. >> and unless or until he returns, poker will not be

flourished. and he will not return for the length of a year for-- >> and intentions for off shore gambling? any? >> not specifically addressed, but you could use the language. >> not at all, judge. >> very generous. >> thank you, stuart. >> and ties to it. >> i'm tied to you. >>. [laughter] >> transportation second ray lahood had a few missteps during his tenure, remember when he told you not to drive a toyota? next, we're talking about his touting ever the stimulus plan and how well it worked. . >> and 48 billion and we put 65,000 people to work in 15,000 projects in two years with no problems. i'm very proud of that.

>> we have for you, a dire prediction on what will happen to the u.s. economy if we go over the so-called fiscal cliff. it's from a congressional budget office, it's nonpartisan. and now for the report. if the fiscal cliff occurs, we go over it, the u.s. economy goes back into recession, the first half of next year, the economy shrinks by roughly 3 percentage points. over a million jobs will be lost and the cbo cannot project what will happen if we don't go over that cliff because we don't know what kind after deal would be made to avoid it. the fiscal cliff, by the way, tax increases and spending cuts. and also out today. existing home sales numbers,

annual rate of 4.47 million homes sold in this calendar year. up from last month. and still, a pretty slow housing market. and checking stocks right now. the dow industrials down 27 points, and back in 90 seconds with a look at gas from ray lahood.

>> president obama's fund raising in west port, connecticut costs $36,000 to attend and $15,000 to secure. and the town of west port has to pay for police and fire overtime

during the president's visit and the campaign, the campaign, that is, now rejected the town's request to be repaid. he shouldn't do that because it was a private visit by the president, private fundraiser and public money was spent on it. surely he should pay up. and later in this hour, my take and i share experiences of west port connecticut, the first place i ever saw in america. 10:55 this morning. all right, serious stuff now. transportation second ray lahood he tells the daily caller that the stimulus was a success, listen to this. >> 48 billion and we put 65,000 people to work in 15,000 projects in two years with no problems, i'm very proud of that. stuart: all right, you heard it, very proud of it. 48 billion dollars worth of governor spending for a total of 65,000 jobs, that means you the taxpayers paid $738,000 for each job created under the department of transportation stimulus

project. and nicholas from the daily caller is in d.c. you don't agree with ray lahood, the transportation secretary. you don't this that the surplus or the transportation department stimulus was a success, right? >> well, when i asked him that question he said that out of 48 billion dollars, that they spent, 65,000 jobs were created, at $738,000 per job if you do the math and that means the government spent $738,000 for one job being created for every single job, and so, and he's proud of that, but you know, the issue with this stimulus, they're temporary jobs, when the money goes away, when the project ends, the job's lost. >> are you going after ray lahood? he's had a few gaffes over the years. are you going after him? >> well, at first i asked him about the unspent earmarks that the obama administration is sending down to the states. so, the interview was framed

around that and i asked him about that, what's going to be done with that money and he said we're send it go down to the states and the governor's can apply, from different states, and spend that money on infrastructure and it segued into me asking about the stimulus because i was framing it as look, you've already spent what the congressional budget office is saying is over 830 billion dollars on the stimulus, package in 2009 and he cut me off and said, well, i'm very proud of that. and defending it. >> did mr. secretary lahood, at one point he said during the unwanted acceleration problem that toyota had, at one point he said, don't drive a toyota. did he ever apologize for that? because i mean, that was a pretty radical thing to say at the time. >> there was a lot of controversy around that whole issue, he pretty much, from what i remember backed away from that, but i've noticed that during his time as transportation--

as transportation secretary, as a republican. his focus, a lot of his focus in the beginning has been on the stimulus monkey.ey, from the beginning talked about how they spent it so quickly, as of 2010 bragging how 75% was already out the door and that was success. now, that 100% of it is gone he's looking back and still saying, 65,000 jobs is a success, which points to a major issue in the presidential election, the roll of the federal government in directly funding projects and actual jobs on the state and local level. stuart: fair point. nicholas from the daily caller, fair point indeed. thanks for joining us, sir, always appreciate it, thank you. >> thanks so much. stuart: we've got the latest read on the housing market at the top of the hour and coming up next, one of our real estate watchers will tell us how much one of her bargain houses is worth now. three bedrooms, two bathrooms, phoenix, it sold for about

74,500 almost one year ago. question, what is it worth now? we ask you to guess on our facebook page. one person got the number exactly right. the answer and the person-- >> that's right. >> next, coming up next. with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. >> announcer: meet mary. she loves to shop online with her debit card, and so does bill, an identity thief who stole mary's identity, took over her bank accounts and stole her hard-earned money.

now meet jack. after 40 years, he finally saved enough to enjoy retirement. angie, the waitress at jack's favorite diner, is also enjoying his retirement. with just a little information, she's opened up a credit line, draining the equity in jack's home. unfortunately, millions of americans just like you learn all it may take is a little misplaced information to wreak havoc on your life. this is identity theft, and no one helps stop it better than lifelock. see, ordinary credit monitoring services tell you after your identity has been stolen. they may take 30 days to alert you-- too late for jack. lifelo has the most comprehensive identity theft protection available. if mary had lifelock's bank account alerts, she may have been notified in time to help stop it. if jack had lifelock's 24/7 proactive protection, he could have been alerted by phone or e-mail as soon as they noticed an attack on their network, before it was too late. lifelock has the most comprehensive identity theft protection available, guarding your social security number,

your money, your credit, even the equity in your home. while identity theft can't be completely stopped, no one works harder to protect you than lifelock. you even get a $1 million service guarantee. that's security no one can beat. you have so much to protect and nothing to lose when you call lifelock right now and get 60 days of identity theft protection risk free-- that's right, 60 days risk free-- use promo code: notme. order now and get this document shredder to keep sensitive documents out of the wrong hands-- a $29 value, free. call the number on your screen. [♪...]

ichlts. stuart: usually by november,

they say the background and that's not to say that vice-president biden's activities are not news worthy. you know, i've thought about publishing a book, the book of biden gaffe as long as war and peace. stuart: it would be a best seller, i suggest. that was larry sabato in the nine o'clock hour reacting to vice-president biden's latest gaffe. tune into "varney & company" each weekday morning, 9:20 when we start. to the big board, no reactions on the cbo projection of a slower economy, if we go over the fiscal cliff. no reaction to the very small pickup in existing home sales, none at all. we're still down 21 on low volume. look at gold. holding close to 1650 an ounce, not much change, but close to 1650. as to the price of oil. close to $97 a barrel and that means that gas prices should continue to climb. and the national average now at 3.71, that's regular, and look at diesel, we now hit a national

average of $4 per gallon. nicole, williams-sonoma still a winner. why and how good is it? >> beat and raise. that's what they do, they beat the street and raise the forecast and doing it and beating it and this is why you're seeing stock at a new high, it's at 10 1/4% on the day and see the major market averages moving 1/10 of a percent. and do they come out and you noted they sell the spatulas, that are $25, aen folks are going in and expanding in australia and i mean, they're just getting it right and seeing the profits. stuart: okay. got it. and it was 25 bucks a spatula. >> a monogrammed spatula. stuart: is it monogrammed? thank you, it's 6.95 for a grapefruit knife and that's williams-sonoma. >> i knew that. stuart: thanks nicole indeed. the dow is down 19 points. not much movement. existing home sales for july weaker than expected and the

trend is slightly up in terms of annual sales, let's bring in an expert joining the company from phoenix, tanya with team investments. and before we go any further, you know the real estate market and i want to ask you a question, the housing numbers came out 27 minutes ago, we're selling existing homes at annual right 4.47 million per year. >> yes. >> that doesn't seem like a hot number. i remember, 6, 7 million a year. >> a healthy market is 9 million a year, we're not half of a healthy market. yes, i agree, absolutely. we need to get back to that level. the one thing that i do want to point out because i think we need to understand where we were and where we are today. is that between the second quarter of 2011 and the second quarter of 2012, these are the statistics, and the median home price risen 7.3% and it's risen, 110 out of 147 statistical

markets. and the existing inventory is down 24%. and the distressed properties are down 33% and of course, our interest rates are down. so, we're moving in an upward motion, but we have a long ways to go. stuart: that's interesting, because you're making the case, there's a favorable marketplace for an investor with a fairly long-term horizon and that's who you're broadcasting to, isn't it? >> that is. stuart: i know where you're coming from. and i want today look back, because about a year ago, i think we're going to put it on the screen. we had a-- one of your homes, you had it for sale. and i think at the time, it was 74,500 and sold for that amount and that was almost a year ago. and it was in phoenix. >> correct. stuart: it was three bedrooms, two bathrooms as i recall, a nice neighborhood and sold for 74-5 and i'm seeing-- i think we had a contest, didn't we to see what it's worth now, right. >> right.

>> i think we just showed that on the screen and gave it away and put it on the screen for heaven's sake, what's it worth now. >> 97,000, it's absolutely appreciated 23%. and that is what is happening in the phoenix markets, and-- >> which neighborhood, what kind after community is it? >> it's actually a community that was, that went way down and i would not have touched and then as it started to climb, we saw the values and the school systems came back in. so, the infrastructure actually was being brought back in, and it's really community. and that's in maricopa. you have to remember that cheap housing and cheap rental rates really forced that boom. and that was a $700 a month rental. well, now, that's a $1,000 rental not only have the prices increased, but so have the rents and as an investor you need to remember that. stuart: yeah, look, we've got to make the point that that's one specific market. which was horribly depressed,

but it's clearly now coming back, phoenix, arizona and by the way, congratulations to kathleen loretto, she entered our contest worth 74-5 a year ago, what's it worth today. kathleen got it absolutely right. so, congratulations to somebody who knows all about real estate out there. kathleen. >> no prize, stuart? >> no prize, an honorable mention, on this program three times we said the name. real fast you made the point that home values are sharply higher in phoenix and rents are going up. do you think it's going to continue at this pace or bargains gone? >> we're not going to make the gains anymore. >> sure, so, $100,000 is still a bargain, absolutely, we have to put this in perspective. and i don't know anyone else in the country that you can buy $100,000 home and rent for $1,000 and make that cash flow so the bargains are not gone. however, what we do need to understand we're not going to see 23% gains in 2012.

we might see 6 to 10 and that's a steady market and that's where we want to be. we don't want to see sharp ups and downs, we want to see constant climbs. stuart: got that right. tanya, good stuff. appreciate you being with us. >> thanks, stuart. >> we just got numbers in on oil inventories and there was a drawdown, and in other words, we used a lot of oil. we took a lot of oil out of storage and used it. 5.4 million barrels, to be precise and that's a pretty big drawdown, implying demand was strong, and that's turned the oil market around. and we were down, and now we're ever so slightly up and getting again close to at that $97 per barrel. and how do you get ads on facebook mobile apps? do you know what that means? and our next guest makes technology to allow smart phones to run those ads on facebook. [ male announcer ] if you believe the mayan calendar,

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♪ stuart: officially gone into aaa hitting four dollars a gallon as a natural average. these fill using trucks almost about you and i buy in the stores. it is affecting of oil.

i see this rise in price for diesel and the rising price of oil as a harbinger. >> absolutely. i could not agree more. i have said time and again you want to own oil. is a trimmed globally to have central banks printing more money or less money? clearly, it will be more money. we are talking kind of macro economics. let back up a little bit. let's look at global supplies. we talked a number of times about global demand and economic slowdowns and we kind of connected the dots there and try to say, well, crude oils should be working it way lower. if you look at what is available

and ending stocks and available crude, they are reasonably tight. that does not equate to this level economic slowdown model that we are trying to draw. stuart: i will be paying a lot for gas and diesel in immediate. before election. >> i would expect so. i would not be surprised to see a little bit of a pullback here. have we not seen a stock market rally for nearly a month straight? that is bringing crude up with it. if you have a big huge selloff, good crude oil sell off a little bit from there, yes. stuart: thank you for joining us in chicago. thank you. facebook shares have plummeted since the much anticipated ipo that was back in may. the stock losing roughly half of its value. facebook needs ads to make

money. more people are using facebook on their mobile phones where it is harder to displace those ads. which makes the technology and sells the ads on your mobile phone. george, welcome to the program. >> good to be here. stuart: you have to make this really clear for me. if i have my smart phone and i want to look at facebook on my smart phone, are you the guy that makes it easy to put ads on my facebook on my smart phone. >> we do. ms., sports, weather, so forth. we provide the technology and adds. stuart: is it your technology that is unique? >> it is proprietary to us. more than comments and payment

and so forth, more and more companies will want to be there to advertise their services on a mobile phone. stuart: i do not respond to ads on my smart phone. i don't. >> you may be a market of one. [laughter] you will also find at the infancy in my experience in media, this is new. anytime you have a new media, finding your way to display the content on a smaller screen and how to use the unique properties of the phone. a map of the world, a wallet and so forth to connect advertising like click to call the restaurant to make a reservation. these are things that are uniquely enabled by the phone and the properties of its location as opposed to being tethered to your pc. as soon as people and agencies and customers i wake up to the

creative possibilities that are embedded capabilities of a smart phone. 2 is it the technology of the future? >> of course. we are much more, i think, for the advertiser for purposes, you will have a location aware device. a computer, a map of the world, a phone, this can be integrated. >> what i used to do on tv, magazine, outdoor -- i never knew if i sold a can of soda or not.

>> facebook cannot get an advertising stream. how did they mess up so badly. >> i think facebook, to speak for them, is a very product customer centered organization. what they have been surprised by is the speed of which accessed by the mobile phone. >> caught with a consumer transition, by the way, most companies house, where the capabilities of the phone is ahead of the imagination of both facebook and the other businesses that are seeking to monetize. stuart: have you called mr. zuckerberg? >> all the time. we are a partner of theirs on how to figure out, reserving the customer service of facebook and

mobile while also introducing advertising. that is the challenge they are trying to figure out. stuart: george bell. a man who may be a billionaire. are you one yet? >> not at this very moment. >> wait until the market closes. stuart: george bell, thank you very much indeed. madam albright not being so diplomatic when it comes to blaming president bush. wait until you hear how long we should blame bush for our country's economic troubles. [ male announcer ] if you have to take care of legal matters.

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stuart: it is a very modest loss for the stock market this morning on perry will borrowing. the dell jones industrial is down. we go over that cliff, tax increases and spending cuts and all it will go back into recession. we also have existing home sales numbers. very small improvement. individual stocks, williams sonoma up big. sales up 7%. stocks up 10%. express is down. says it will make less money this year. express, by the way, is a clothing store for young people.

assisted living facilities but out at 1450 a share. back with more in a moment hey! did you know that honey nut cheerios

has oats that can help lower cholesterol? and it tastes good? sure does! wow. it's the honey, it makes it taste so... well, would you look at the time... what's the rush? be happy. be healthy. stuart: our news alert for you right now, a new study says americans throw away up to 40% of their food every year. landfills contain roughly $65 billion worth of produce and meat. it exists even as the draft

curtains to boost prices. former secretary matalin albright is joining in. >> how long are you people going to blame? i said, forever. [laughter] stuart: did you hear that? how long are you people going to blame bush for everything and she says forever. >> forever means november. [laughter] the polls show more people blame president bush and president obama for our current economic woes. may not be right, they not be fair, those are the facts. >> you do not have a record to campaign on. i thought she was secretary of state. stuart: she was. diplomats. >> she is now a consultant.

stuart: 8% unemployment. how much of all of that mess can be blamed upon president bush? 40%, 60%, 10%, 90%? >> i am sort of 50%. you and i both agree that we would be better off if both parties used it as a framework to avoid the fiscal cliff. stuart: that is how you get out of it. i think we can both agree on this. also looking for consensus. i don't want consensus on this program, i want argument. >> the fact that you don't think it would make a difference sent me and i think does not put us in a position where we can solve

problems on varney and company. >> you cannot let him get away with that. stuart: he went to harvard. the proposed tax hikes in california has a new ad. although the governor says they are broke. this is from the group stop, prop 30. >> millions of dollars sitting in special ones as state agencies. just one week after a hidden fund scandal was discovered. >> governor brown is asking voters in november to approve a particular tax hike. stuart: a proposition to raise taxes in november and california, that is what the governor wants. >> like change in the sofa.

stuart: i bet that they will raise taxes. >> absolutely have to and cut spending. california is a mess. stuart: california is already the highly taxed place in the country. >> i don't have the data at the back of my mind here, basically, my parents are in southern california, they have been paying the same property taxes. i am not in favor overall, for this particular issue, i think there is room. stuart: california will raise taxes. >> i think they will. i think the brown plan is crafted to achieve that. stuart: my take on and my connection to westport, connecticut. that is next.

stuart: westport, connecticut, president obama's fundraising territory recently and the first place i came to in america way back when. here is my take. to a sports stories, very little connection. january 1973, i land at jfk.

i am taken at night to westport. next morning i walk around the town. my first day in america. i was alone away. westport is a very wealthy town. i thought the streets of america are indeed paved with gold. i was in love right from the get-go. fast forward to this year. president obama visits westport. the local police force has to help protect them. the town says, hey, pay up, mr. president, it was a private event and we are public officials. so far there has been no check in the mail. the wealthy taxpayers of westport will have to put the bill. way back then, i stayed in westport. i worked as a waiter for eight months. it was my first start in my brand new home. i guess you could say i lived off the wealth.

perhaps the president is doing the exact same thing. dropping into westport for the exact same thing. that is my take. do we have time for a company reaction to this? >> you must have been a terrific waiter. we are out of time, but the highlight reel is next. e loves h her debit card, and so does bill, an identity thief who stole mary's identity, took over her bank accounts and stole her hard-earned money. now meet jack. after 40 years, he finally saved enough to enjoy retirement. angie, the waitress at jack's favorite diner, is also enjoying his retirement. with just a little information, she's opened up a credit line, draining the equity in jack's home.

unfortunately, millions of americans just like you learn all it may take is a little misplaced information to wreak havoc on your life. this is identity theft, and no one helps stop it better than lifelock. see, ordinary credit monitoring services tell you after your identity has been stolen. they may take 30 days to alert you-- too late for jack. lifelo has the most comprehensive identity theft protection available. if mary had lifelock's bank account alerts, she may have been notified in time to help stop it. if jack had lifelock's 24/7 proactive protection, he could have been alerted by phone or e-mail as soon as they noticed an attack on their network, before it was too late. lifelock has the most comprehensive identity theft protection available, guarding your social security number, your money, your credit, even the equity in your home. while identity theft can't be completely stopped, no one works harder to protect you than lifelock. you even get a $1 million service guarantee. that's security no one can beat.

you have so much to protect and nothing to lose when you call lifelock right now and get 60 days of identity theft protection risk free-- that's right, 60 days risk free-- use promo code: notme. order now and get this document shredder to keep sensitive documents out of the wrong hands-- a $29 value, free. call the number on your screen. [♪...] stuart: here it is reel. we have dealt with the latest economic news. and now this. >> not all democrats are popular. stuart: you associate bain capital with causing cancer. >> you bash