to report corrupt judges or illegal decisions, write to me on facebook or to this email address. see you in exactly a week. an unusual look at the news. good health, ladies and gentlemen, my name is mykola veresen. sharp presentation of facts and competent opinions. and in america they also say, let's have better roads , we will have even better ones. a special view on events in ukraine, there will be some katsaps on the border of kyiv and beyond, what a world dreams of, mr. norman, we can imagine it, all this in informational marathon with mykola veresny, saturday 5:10 p.m., sunday 6:15 p.m. at espresso. vasyl zima's big broadcast, 2 hours of airtime, two hours of your time, two hours to learn about the war and what the world is about, two hours to be up to date with the economy.

news and sports news, two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who have become like-minded to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for intelligent and caring people, with espresso at dinner. glory to ukraine, dear ones tv viewers, on the air of the tv channel, the west studio program. will be the most important events of this week and, of course, we will try to predict what the following weeks will bring us, our guests today, the american diplomat matthew bryza and the famous political scientist andriy piondkovskii. our first guest is matthew bryza, former adviser to the united states secretary of state, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council. glory to ukraine, mr. ambassador, i congratulate you. glory to heroes. extremely difficult situation in in the united states, we understand, the bidding continues. we recently had a rather

strange emissary visit us, senator lynsey graham. yes , we understand that he made what is popularly called a trade proposal, but in any case he did not bring assurances from the american congress that the question of providing us with macroeconomic assistance will be resolved, and we understand that now this is a matter of life and death for ukraine. the situation unfolds within the framework of the us government and legal system. where the great power of the us congress lies in its power to define distribution of funds, in particular for the executive branch of government. so when the president makes a request, whether it's for the annual budget or for a specific supplemental program, such as aid to ukraine, congress must approve it. linzi graham has long supported aid to ukraine, its independence, and the restoration of its territorial integrity. however, as a politician, he is an evolution. from challenging

donald trump in the primary to becoming one of his staunchest supporters. graham admits that trump is in favor it is better not to just provide aid to ukraine, but to issue it as a loan. trump suggested that the game admits that this loan may never be repaid. the interest rate is likely to be very low, similar to world war ii bailouts. under the lenlis act, much of which was never repaid by recipient countries such as great britain, the soviet union, china and other allies. thus, calling aid a loan is a political tactic. after all, it will still function as aid, but by calling it a loan, it will appease the small faction of extreme republicans in the house of representatives who are obstructing. voting, threatening to remove

speaker michael johnson from his position, and johnson, fearing to lose his role , prevents the voting. therefore , it is expected that the vote will take place in the near future. when we talk about our ukrainian fossils and the visit of linzigram, who starts talking about help from the united states, a certain feeling creeps in that maybe someone, i don't know, there is a deep deepstate, a deep state, american. i would like to solve issues related to fossils in this way, well , i don't know, fossils in exchange for large-scale aid, this is about specific environments in the united states, maybe i 'm wrong. no, this theory seems propagandistic to me. perhaps the russians are behind the fact that it is the current subject of discussion in ukraine. the united states government has no interest in providing itself with natural resources from anywhere but the united states. the us government is trying to encourage

other countries, to allow american companies to extract oil, natural gas and other minerals under fair conditions. in addition, it contributes to the global exploitation of nature. minerals to meet the needs of the world economy. in fact, i wish they would think as strategically as you suggest, instead there is a very partisan political battle going on in washington between those who support donald trump in the house of representatives, seeking to show unwavering support, and the rest of the country, essentially the people of the united states , which wants to ukraine received aid and recognizes that ukraine needs it. speaking of which, no matter how important ukraine is for the us in strategic terms, it is not the main foreign policy issue for biden right now. his primary concern is israel's conflict with gaza and related houthi attacks on shipping in the red

sea, which could significantly affect the global economy and tarnish the image of biden, who is campaigning against donald trump. however, how. the more pressing issue concerning the rest of the world in us politics is the border with mexico. there is currently a complex debate in which republicans accuse biden of insufficient border control, especially now during the crisis in haiti. in washington, there are fears of another significant wave of migrants from haiti heading for the southern border. that's why it's the number one issue on biden's campaign agenda right now. ukraine is really important, but this is definitely not about some kind of deep state conspiracy, it's just a short-sighted pre-election policy of the usa, which prevents the allocation of aid to ukraine. so, mr. ambassador, well, in any case, we understand that conspiracy theory is a very convenient tool for political experts and for

journalists, well, in order to, so to speak, consider various additional options of the problem, but in any case, now in dry residue we have extremely positive. signals from the president of the united states, extremely positive signals from pentagon chief lloyd austin, extremely positive signals are many, but the question is not resolved, and it could mean that maybe, i don't know, this or that emissary accomplished its mission, the united states also received extremely specific threats from the kremlin. we understand that the process is ongoing in europe, but this process still cannot resolve. of all the necessary tasks facing our state, because russia is entering a new, additional, even more serious phase of the war. you are right, when there were threats from putin to use tactical nuclear weapons in ukraine, bill burns, the head of the cia, former

ambassador to russia, went to moscow and explained to president putin that if russia resorted to such a step, it will have serious military consequences for the russians. to me , that meant that if putin used tactical nuclear weapons, the united states would attack russian forces with conventional means, but i don't know if that would be the case. this is just what reliable news sources like the washington post have been reporting. i agree with you that the signals coming from general austin or president biden about providing aid to ukraine are positive. national security adviser jake salevan recently visited kyiv, and it was at this time that secretary of state blinken headed to egypt to try to broker a cease-fire in israel's war against hamas. thus, the biden administration is trying to make it clear that the united states is with ukraine, the us is sending its

second most important foreign policy official, the national security adviser, to kyiv, while the top us diplomat is going to cairo. as graham told lintsa, while in... in kyiv, he is more confident than ever that a political solution will be found to help ukraine. the problem is because ukraine does not have time to wait. so, unfortunately, one of the greatest weaknesses of our american political system is that a group of extreme ideological players in one house of our parliament can block what almost everyone else wants. certainly, the majority of american citizens approve of aid to ukraine, and as far as i... understand, most members of congress also give the green light to aid to ukraine. unfortunately, we have to live with this problem in the united states all the time because of the ineffective management, because of the way the rules are set up our democratic system. but i think we're getting closer to the point where

aid will be appropriated by congress and we 'll see ukraine finally get more of what it needs. putin recently reappointed himself to the post of president, and we understand. that it remains for him to crown himself, i don't know, with the cap of ivan the terrible until he is completely happy. on the other hand, we understand that in the current situation one or the other, the so-called negotiation, is brewing. moment, so we understand that now russia is in this negotiating moment, if it really will be, feels much stronger than a year ago , on the other hand, certain processes are ongoing, and we have two tracks, one is the so-called geneva track, so in geneva they are trying to form a large conference that would be dedicated to the so -called peace formula, on the other hand , we understand that the russians will not be there, but the chinese will be there as observers, in the last couple of months lihui, the special representative... china has traveled the entire european union, meeting with all possible

representatives of various authorities, and i would like to analyze with you what he can do this is the so-called geneva format and the second track, which will most likely be formed by beijing together with moscow. i don't know when the geneva peace conference will take place, but i see the swiss government's agreement to host it as a positive sign, especially because ... russia will not be there, so that's good, and ultimately it will be a sign of support for ukraine. in my opinion, this is such a brainstorm, aimed at finding ways to achieve peace in such a way as to allow ukraine to restore its territorial integrity. it is worth noting that even china's so-called peace plan, which is quite vague regarding ukraine, actually included the idea of ​​restoring the territorial integrity of ukraine as the first item. of course, china is forced to take such a position because of taiwan's problems. if

you observe china's behavior after russia's full-scale invasion of ukraine, china has not behaved as an ally of russia. instead, it acts more like a country that has an understanding with russia, having a common adversary, which is the west and the united states. xi jinping is essentially using vladimir putin to execute. dirty work, the hard work of waging war. china is trying not to provide weapons to russia and not to violate sanctions because it is very concerned about secondary us sanctions. these are the kind of sanctions that , if violated, could hit chinese banks hard, for example, if chinese banks no longer have access to the us dollar, the swift system, or the us financial system, xijin pin fears his own political earthquake at home. so. china's presence in geneva in my opinion not so bad. it would be much better

if china, apart from the ukrainian issue, did not share russia's desire to undermine the west and the usa. however, i actually have high hopes for the geneva conference and am sure that there will be no serious pressure on ukraine to abandon its legitimate demands to clear its territory of all occupying russian troops and completely restore its territorial integrity. when we talk about the parameters of what russia considers to be a certain achievement of goals, this is one point, and the second point is the question of how our friends see the victory of ukraine, namely jake sullivan, president biden's national security adviser, a couple of days ago made an extremely powerful signal, that is, according to him , the victory of ukraine means the preservation of the ukrainian state, a sovereign, democratic , economically. and so on and so on. the only thing that he missed is an extremely important point, which is the return of our

territories temporarily occupied by the russian federation. and here we once again return to what is called strategic assistance by the united states and our allies. not just help, so to speak, at the tactical level, which allows us to preserve at least what we have at the moment. strategic assistance provides. fundamentally new types of weapons in sufficient quantity to inflict an extremely painful defeat on the enemy. what i am very critical of the biden administration is that neither jake salevan nor president biden has ever clearly stated that we want ukraine to win. we want victory for ukraine. they always are they say: "we don't want ukraine to lose." but they don't say directly, we want... ukraine to win, so psychologically, in my opinion, it's too weak a position, but one of the reasons why they don't

clearly define what victory means for ukraine, or even talk about it is that, as they often say, it is up to ukraine to decide what victory will look like. you are a democracy, so this is your country, your territory and your people, so it is up to ukraine to decide how the war will end and what victory will mean for it. so i understand. that russia resumed its military offensive, but russia's goal all this time was to survive. i mean, after it failed its first attack on kyiv in february-march 2022 . and after the successful counteroffensive of ukraine, which pushed out russian troops from kherson in the south and kharkiv in the north. russia has had to literally dig in, dig trenches and hope, maybe even pray, that the united states and our european allies will not provide ukraine with the aid that its brave ukrainian soldiers need to win.

so what's happening now? yes, that's it. we are not giving you the help you need and... russia can hold on and maybe even take a few steps forward. but, as i have already said, i am more and more confident that ukraine will receive this aid, and it is important that ukraine uses it as wisely as possible. i want to frankly share with you what i hear from the american military, who are ardent supporters of ukraine. they say that ukraine used to train very inefficiently, firing too many cartridges and shells during the exercises, and what needed to be used. this help is more economical. in addition, there were fears that part of the money received was not used for its intended purpose. for example, for the purchase of expensive cars for ukrainian officials who had access to finance. but these numbers are small. ukraine will win if we give it 60 billion dollars of aid and 40 billion dollars that the european union promised to ukraine. for me

, victory means that ukraine will push all russian troops out of its territory. and will fully restore its territorial integrity, but it is easy for me to say this from the comfort of my home in istanbul, the leadership and people of ukraine have to weigh much more complex trade-offs, life and destruction against territory, and only the people of ukraine and their elected leaders can decide what that trade-off should look like. you mentioned istanbul, and actually, i would like you now to analyze the situation with president erdogan and his potential. opportunities, so we understand that president erdogan has now managed to negotiate the unprecedented, the de facto agreement of certain possible american sanctions mechanisms against turkey with the agreement of the turkish authorities, that is , we understand that president erdogan is a powerful player, but how powerful will he be, and if we talk and return to the so-called

geneva format or istanbul format, in a combination with geneva could yield one or another fruit. do you have the feeling that putin is ready, despite all diplomatic attempts, to go for further escalation with further entry into the so-called even bigger war. i think that president erdoğan has proven to be a very effective negotiator. he managed to conclude the so-called green agreement with ukraine with the participation of moscow and kyiv. he wants to continue playing this role. he seeks to be a mediator and sees turkey's foreign policy as such. aimed at stabilizing the regions and bringing peace, prosperity and justice. this is his self-esteem and the goal of turkey. a lot of people don't agree with that, but i think that's his first priority. therefore, i believe that he will come to geneva, wanting to help conclude an agreement, if there is one maybe. on the war in the middle east, erdogan and his foreign ministers

are also active behind the scenes, trying to broker some sort of deal. while erdogan is very critical of netanyahu, behind the scenes turkey is trying to facilitate a deal to release more hostages and then be ready to step in if there is a ceasefire, acting as a guarantor state, turkey's aspiration. so how strong is erdogan, i don't know how strong turkey is in this situation, it's not so much a matter of brute force because erdogan is not going to threaten anyone with military force or economic sanctions. no, he simply proved that he is an effective mediator, and in the past both putin and zelensky said that they welcome erdogan's mediation. putin says that russia is ready to escalate the conflict in order to force ukraine to de-escalate. this is russia's national, security and military doctrine, but i don't think that

it can go far in the framework of escalation. the only major concern is weapons production. russian economy now. it's on the military rails, it is completely reoriented to the production of weapons. russia produces about 200 155mm artillery shells per month. and when the eu increases its capacity, it will produce only 50,000 per month. so russia can produce a lot of weapons, but in the long run , such spending will simply bury its economy. yes, the russian economy didn't collapse, but that's only because so much... of russia's national wealth is now invested in military production, which means that the goods that are destroyed do not contribute to growth economy, so putin's long-term costs for this... will be huge, and if he escalates, the costs will be even greater. he wants to stay in power for another 12 years and i don't see how he is going to survive

if he escalates this war. well, in any case , we see a willingness on the part of the kremlin elites to continue the escalation. we see that over the next couple of years, the russian economy didn't collapse, it rebuilt itself, they are now, i think, at the end of the late middle ages, yes, but in... they are ready to to smear the country with war, that is , there is no such question as to preserve these or other things, no, and here is the key story taking into account this moment, how would it be right for us to do your vision and your advice, so to the leadership of our state for that , in order to activate certain additional mechanisms, whether we should now deepen, i don't know, military and economic cooperation with great britain. or with the european union, in particular with france, germany and poland within the weimar triangle, or on the contrary, we would have to now to intensify our cooperation with the possible

next president of the united states , donald trump, so we understand that now we should already develop an additional new strategy of relations and specific tactics, propose and practice. of course, the ideal formula is to cooperate with everyone. "i think that ukraine needs the deepest cooperation with all its friends, unprecedentedly deep cooperation. i participated in a conference where a german government official spoke, and he mentioned that if, say, in the fall of 2021 somebody said that the european union would invest its own money to help ukraine buy weapons, people would think he was out of his mind. but that's what 's happening now. so i think that senator graham actually... two pieces of advice for ukraine: to produce as many weapons as possible, as soon as possible, and to recruit more ukrainian citizens into the army. he insisted on lowering the conscription

age from 27 to 25. i know that this is very difficult to do in ukraine politically , but it seems that it a very necessary step.also , i think it would be helpful if ukraine has emphasized more to its friends around the world that it has significantly increased its ability to produce weapons in... as i understand from an article i read in the atlantic council a few days ago, ukraine is now capable of producing artillery shells and other weapons on the amount of 18 billion dollars per month. however , the state budget of ukraine has only 9 or 8 billion dollars for the purchase of equipment and weapons that ukraine can produce independently. therefore, i believe that ukraine should ask for help not only in kind. weapons, but also in the form of financial support that will allow you to produce more and prepare for the long-term deterrence of russia in the future. how should we

work with a possible new team of donald trump, so there were rumors that, for example, donald trump met with elon musk and so on and so forth. we understand that there are issues of teams that may neglect, at least in the non-public sphere, what is called the ethics of international cooperation. yes, we begin to live. new time, yes, well, accordingly, it is not known what can happen additionally in of the united states, but donald trump is making extremely contradictory signals, but we see that he does not lose, yes, we want to wish joseph biden's team, i don't know, victory, successful development and so on and so forth, but we see that, well, trump's team is recruiting, and accordingly, what should we prepare for under those conditions, if in six months... the united states may have its own political revolution, and we understand that when we talk about isolationism, we say no in not about

political or political science categories, we we are talking about very specific things, in particular about military aid and financial aid, which may not arrive, or maybe on the contrary, well, when donald trump talks about the fact that he has a script, he has a vision, yes, what could it be , if he was ready to... or to act mildly, for example, communicating with the aggressor state, russia. no one knows this, trump has no such plan. trump, as he is in all his glory. this is a completely narcissistic and self-righteous person. now he looks stronger politically to me candidate, but biden is gaining momentum and trying to counter the anxiety among democratic voters, and among all voters, that he's ... too old, and he's doing a pretty good job of it. trump is facing various challenges related to various criminal cases against him. some things can actually

help him. to win voters' votes, or to get them to go to the polls instead of staying home because they believe donald trump is being persecuted by the us judicial system. but certain others cases like the one alleging he essentially instigated the january 6 mutiny in congress will cost him votes. so it's too early to tell, but even if i knew donald trump would be elected president, i still wouldn't be able to predict anything concrete. i have no idea what his approach will be to. of ukraine. on the one hand , he said he would end the war in one day if he became president. obviously, this would mean that he would somehow insist on a ceasefire, which may not be the case benefit of ukraine. that's probably what he meant, though he didn't specify, so that's a bad thing. but the good thing is that he is the first us president to provide lethal aid to ukraine in the form of javelin anti-tank missiles. this is something that president barack obama could never do.

or did not want to provide ukraine, and now president trump does not say that he does not want to help ukraine, he says that he does not want to help ukraine for free, it is said that if ukraine receives something from the united states and from donald trump, then the united states and donald trump should get something from ukraine. so let's talk not about a gift, but about a loan that ukraine may or may not have to repay. that's trump's approach so far. it all boils down to the fact that i don't care too much. donald trump's approach to ukraine if he is re-elected president, but i am deeply concerned about his approach to nato. after all, he previously spoke about the alliance as a relic of the past. and a few weeks ago, we all heard another delusion from his mouth. namely, that any nato member country that does not invest in defense 2% of its gdp, which is nato's goal, effectively allows putin to do whatever he wants with it, because the us is not going to defend. such

countries, in my opinion, this is a heresy, this is a geopolitical heresy. no leader of any nato member country should ever say such a thing, least of all nato's most important leader. therefore, trump is very unpredictable, absolutely conjunctural, unstrategic and selfish. and yet, so far he has not said that all aid to ukraine should be stopped, and thank god. thank you very much , sir. ambassadors for this brilliant analysis on the air of the tv channel, i want to remind our tv viewers that matthew bryze, former adviser to the secretary of state of the united states, ex-director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council, was currently working for them. gots america, glory to ukraine. thank you.