[000:00:00;00] in addition to this, in addition to the statements themselves, it is also necessary to have a plan b, practical practical actions, what will happen if china is not afraid of any statements and really starts to help, so consultations have begun regarding how the usa will really act, what sanctions will be imposed, how the interaction between partners and allies will take place and so on. and information about this has already appeared in the mass media, which also says that this is part of the informational and psychological operation of the strategic containment of the kp for how much , how effective it will be. to be honest, i i have such pessimistic pessimistic unfortunately forecasts because the russian-ukrainian war showed several things , first of all, it showed that the colossal sanctions imposed on russia did not actually destroy the russian economy for the projected losses of 15% by the beginning of 2022. the european union

will publish and russia lost only 3%. this means that such a small, very small, er , small drop in gdp did not destroy the russian economy and will not destroy the chinese economy in fact with the help of i apologize to yuri on without the help of china, well, the russian economy did not fall so much, oil , which beijing does not mind buying at a discount, because it needs it, eh, further, eh, the supply of dual-purpose goods from the side of the prc, all this was recorded absolutely true, absolutely true, and china spoke and the west, in fact , the european union, the world bank, he underestimated a little, i think, and the stability , the possibility of the russian economy to reconfigure its markets, to replace european markets and sources and supplies of technology from europe to china and in fact china acted as such a black swan, he changed, after all, he became such a game changer, he changed the situation

at the expense of the russian federation , but as for what you mentioned about the whips and gingerbread, of course, we see that they can be ineffective in reality and and china is currently reassessing the situation for how effective these whips can be. and regarding the gingerbread well, i don't think that the ambitions of the united states of america are here . the united states of america is trying to preserve the existing world order or order. which is based on rules in which ukraine is also very interested because what russia is trying to bring what china is trying to bring we can already see, for example, it is an invasion of the territory of another state for the title - this is liberation after this consolidation of the status quo, the signing of an armistice or the establishment of peace new borders and the continuation of its expansion of this type of world order, in fact , the russian federation and china are interested in it. we

also see that he plays along very intensively in this very briefly regarding gingerbread well, there are no gingerbread that the united states of america could offer because china speaks very clearly and directly. if you want us not to help russia, then please don't help taiwan. what will happen if the united states of america stops supporting its allies in, for example, the asia-pacific region and with regard to thawing, for example, this will mean the collapse of the american system of alliances , the american system, including partnerships, and so on. and this will lead to a very serious, very serious consequences, so i think that what taiwan wants from the united states of america in exchange can lead to much more serious results , including for the world order and including for ukraine, we are talking about kazakhstan, but blinken also visited

in uzbekistan, he met with representatives of turkmenistan, tajikistan, kyrgyzstan, in addition to kazakhstan , uzbekistan, what about these countries, how involved are they in the suk in eh mediators between china and russia is this eh strike still preventive er, quoting lukashenko, it is difficult for me to say that this extremely closed state is one of the economies of central asia . let's say it will overcome and overcome two two countries, two other land countries

, this is actually a problem for uzbekistan - it limits it. uzbekistan is simply locked in the center of central asia, i apologize for the tautology, but all the same, the circumvention of sanctions is carried out through uzbekistan with the help of uzbek business, which uzbek oligarchs who are directly connected to the highest officials of the russian federation, this is carried out through various different industries, first of all, through metallurgy, through the oil and gas industry and so on, because the size of, say, the volumes of the uzbek economy and the technological relations between uzbekistan and russia make it possible to carry out such various operations in including to circumvent sanctions, including to support russian business, to provide them with additional mechanisms, and so on . regarding kyrgyzstan, it is a small country, i mean in terms of the size of the economy and the size of the population, but it directly borders the people's republic of china and there, for example through logistical transitions

, including very serious smuggling from the people 's republic of china, this has always been a problem for the eurasian economic union because a large part of goods entered without customs without customs according to these restrictions and without e-e customs tariffs without customs payments so because of somewhere there is also possible circumvention of sanctions i do not know how serious it can be but it will be one of such additional additional channels regarding the tajik state this country also borders the chinese people's republic, but the border passes in a mountainous region not far from afghanistan, so of course the situation there is a little different, but i would like to remind you that , for example, in tajikistan recently it was announced that an enterprise for the production of drones of the iralsky and by iranian companies, respectively, at the moment we do not have any evidence that these drones are actually produced, that they

are delivered to the territory of ukraine, and so on , there is no evidence, as i emphasize, but we cannot rule out that this may be carried out in the future or partially to some extent . therefore, these countries of course i will remind them they are all almost all of them they are involved in russian economic there er and military-political associations this is the eurasian economic union the organization of the collective security agreement they have economic relations with the russian federation are very close, logistics pass through the russian federation, for example, to europe, to other countries from these countries, so the dependence is very serious, and despite the fact that they currently maintain such formal neutrality, but in some issues they still they play along unfortunately unfortunately they help the russian federation then we literally have a minute left and i can't help but ask i

'm just a big fan of alternative opinions and regarding sanctions i recently saw a report comparative table january 22 january 23 in 2018, the russian federation's oil revenues decreased by 40%. during the year, it happened, and plus mentions that despite beijing's official position regarding russia's war against ukraine , the russian federation's support for the financial company of china, as well as china's banks, adhere to sanctions restrictions and do not cooperate with russian financial institutions and in connection with which i have a question or maybe we are all absolutely all er today maximalists excuse me for the tautology of maximalists er because we want this pile to fall in a year er well maybe we need a little more time for these sanctions for these 14,000 86 it seems that the sanctions imposed against the russian federation well, if in a year - 40%, only for oil well, maybe

then one more year is needed, just a minute, please give your opinion on this matter well, i don't is a specialist in sanctions and my expertise in this matter is very limited recently for example i participated in taiwan in one of in one of the round tables with the participation of thai specialists with the participation of specialists from the uk and it was discussed how these chains should be put, how the war affected the economy, how the county affected the world economy , they concluded that there is no influence , that the economy is growing despite everything , it is increasing and so on, so we will see, of course, how it will be introduced the russian economy with the help of chinese support in 2023. i hope that the consequences will be very serious

. these experts, who are the ones with whom we participated in the discussion, they concluded that there is no destruction , there is a reconfiguration when, for example, one country depended on another for one reason or another , for political reasons, for military reasons, these ties were broken and the country switches very quickly to to other markets and so on. therefore , for now, this process is also taking place , so we will observe. we have here a methodology for forecasting, because it is not only opinions in fact , but it should all be an examination that is based on relevant data on the relevant methodology, here i honestly cannot add anything yet well, mr. yuri , thank you nonetheless for joining the marathon and the news day, yuriy poyd and the head of the section of the asia-pacific region of the army conversion and

armament research center were on a live video link we are moving on slovakia plans to hand over 10 of its 11 soviet fighter jets production mig-29, which were decommissioned in 2022, the final decision can be made in the coming days to ukraine , meanwhile, polish leopards have arrived. in general, we have received a lot of various weapons from partners , which significantly helps our defenders destroy the enemy on the battlefield, how it happens, let's take a look at our all the reasons are in the comment

of the byraktar bayra , here he got somewhere , here

we see a hole. in the morning, this very effective thing. i think we had it. well, sometime in 2014, the air

would have been much freer than it was the day before. the moscow region shuddered from the explosions in the evening. it exploded in the russian place of kolomna. it is located a little more than 100 kilometers from moscow, local people write in social networks that at first a whistle was heard and then a powerful explosion, there is also the government, it is assumed that the drone could have been shot down in the air, but this theory somehow does not explain the flood that appeared after the explosion and a moment of interesting facts about what is located in the colony the company that produces from kandera should be reminded that

a week ago a drone flew but did not reach the distribution station and fell. well, something is happening. the russian federation will soon be flaking as if it has over-ripened the kherson watermelon. such a forecast was voiced by the secretary of the national security and defense council, oleksiy danilova. the aggressor countries are already preparing now, let's listen, it will happen in the near future, i emphasize once again that it will be in our lifetime and the collapse of russia. it is inevitable and i already i have repeatedly said that i can turn to the fact that the west should prepare for this if they think that they can, in what way , negotiate with someone , understand that they can maneuver something there on the territory of individuals, it is impossible, it works in a completely different way and other laws. keep in mind that the event must be prepared for the fact that the russian federation will begin to flake, flake

, flake, and flake once more, it will flake like our overripe kherson watermelon, and this will happen in the near future, and it will start from the caucasus. actually not only oleksiy danilov on the broadcast of the marathon and the news day e-e gave forecasts about when, where and how the russian federation will change, we will deal with all this and not only with timur malevskyi, the editor-in-chief of the insider edition is in direct contact with us timur our greetings our greetings to you, too. good evening is a good day in marathon , the only news today, well, from the latest, here is oleksiy danilov, who said that it is flaking and will start flaking from the southern regions of russia, e.e.

of the president's office on the air , marathons, the only news, he also said that the process of the disintegration of the russian federation is starting or is being divided, so timur, you think that this process has started and maybe even started with the events of the day before in the bryansk region, what someone calls a civil war someone calls it like wikipedia, now i will say the bryansk riots, i am still reading the version about what, well, not the version, the historical fact about the fact that at one time the bryansk region inhabited ukraine, speaking people, in general, ukrainians if it is far, far away to untangle all this history, it can say a lot about what the communists did in the bryansk region after and during the civil war, but that’s not the point , and i’ll tell you honestly, he will believe in the collapse of russia , as it is a rather inevitable and simple process, it is difficult to due to the geography of the russian federation and

many events related to the fact that the most wealthy at first glance and remote from moscow regions well, for example, regions that are rich in oil and gas are located in such a strange geographical position where nothing is clear why do they fall, where do they fall? it’s very far away and quite empty. it’s a sparsely populated place in the middle. nothing, and when arguments start on the topic of the fact that the caucasus or tatarstan will go first , it seems to me that people have seen maps very much. do you understand where it falls? that is, you can fall like that if all the other regions around it, which now make up, as it were , russian-unsettled lands and there is no relation to the russian federation, given the bulk, there

there is no majority or even half of the tatar population. they must accordingly agree that there will be an independent state within them and not prevent it. as for the caucasus, this is a very complicated story because part of the caucasus regions, such as the example of dagestan , the inhabitants of which went to war , saw new and historically very strong connected with the russians, first of all, the economic region connected with russia, which produces nothing except a-a large number of unemployed men, unfortunately, which are also located in you can't say anything like that in the caspian sea, and it's easier

, but the economy of dagestan is not so important. what can go on its own, i can't take into account by itself . - and he receives endless russian days for loyalty and control established if it is assumed that moscow itself will say that it will be taken away for the story. kadyrov and his closest supporters in ongushetia, what kind of bull, khodzhyntsy, will try to occupy other territories, not occupations, but to provoke their influence on other regions of the north caucasus, and it is not clear how everything will end . that the chechens have a lot of questions and bills to this man who for many years asked and tormented the chechens themselves by electing them and including electing them and there is no money in his kadyrova fund from which, as

he says, he is building something there, but the truth should, but even more, he leaves himself behind and pays for his very expensive sultan entertainments, which are poor in chechnya, all of them are well-noticed by his army, which, in general , protects him in the first place . what is it? this is if he talks as if about how the russian federation can fall apart or fall apart, you know once upon a time already . that they sold right-hand cars, chinese, korean, japanese cars, and in general, russia behind the urals drives a car with right-hand drive, which is preferred, and then moscow already tried to ban all points, eh, and prevent it , but they learned to bring cars that are cut in half, collect them straight to the east

, and everything will be east they knew in which garages it is good to buy a car made of two halves. in which ones there are none, and they just said, these military communities are sorry for the ranks of admirals. what ah-ah, what about moscow, that’s what we are here without moscow. we only know how to live the columns will be placed, that is, all of this but there is one moment that is more important than economic considerations, geographical considerations, what or other considerations are the disintegration of russia, this idea, and until today, it seemed to me that until this idea or if this idea does not fly in the air among the inhabitants of russia themselves, this will not happen because the disintegration of the soviet union in that way was arranged out of social constructions, the union simply disappeared because it will disappear, they say that after that, as in the belovezhskoy forest, eh

lukashenko and kravchuk signed an agreement on the dissolution of the soviet union, and the leaders of the suddenly formed republics in central asia, which became independent countries in tajikistan and uzbekistan, are still waiting for some time, and the top places are also waiting for me to call from moscow and say what's next for us to do and only when the phone was silent all the time, they believed that the soviet union would not exist and that it was necessary that something like this could happen in russia, but today putin himself said that russia may fall apart and that the scenario the disintegration of russia is written on paper, these are very important words. they mean that putin believed that russia could disintegrate, he believes in it, following him, it is destructive for the country in the form in which it now exists in our country, we are all within our borders, i believe. - you know how the royal car

has the nutcracker behind him, this veru win in this veru , his closest supporters, from them, propagandists , from them, people who inhabit russia and watch tv, it will be correct, it will be delayed, it will start a discussion, even as a terrible threat spoken on this thought will go into people's minds not the fact that if earlier it's simple well if i, for example, or someone or you said the brass, it might break up to us, it doesn't even say that they didn't start living among the living in russia, they would just say that we left with uma - this is an interesting conversation for me because it is a conversation of a fantaser. now i assume that such conversations will begin to seem possible and probable . i can't present everything while i have it. i think that none of us know that there are two factors. the first factor is a conflict

of interests of philip to uh, which is also there and they have some wealth that they do not want to save and will have to to use their own private army in order to ensure their independence and these armies will probably fight each other, there is no doubt that there is nothing that happened, i can imagine that the russians in the form in which they now identify themselves will become residents of different i don't know the countries there, the massacre is one side, and the urals is the other, and there will be some russian commoners, some other non-russians, but these will be russians from different countries, a-a, close , similar people to each other, but at the same time, they will be er-er nenadnoy the territory is located because that’s how it is separately and in the voronezh region, separate ones can represent themselves, i don’t understand why, but they can represent themselves very well, but why can i represent them from the point of view

of the security of the administration, and somehow it doesn’t sound strange, but probably a - and probably russia is like that this insanity is arranged and punished by its own insanity, in which it fell a fine against ukraine for the fact that the people living in the country cannot embrace its space with their eyes and their minds, and therefore it is impossible to build everything it's hard, and it's very difficult to consider it as your idea, not what you can say . in odessa and in how many hours do you deliver

dalny beer on the street is a lime yes for you and and probably for you a-a garbage in lviv and um i don’t know how they will be er-er storm a-er in odessa equally er-er important things but if your country was six times more and you would never have seen it in your life, had you had any opportunities . a chance to meet people living on its edge who do not consider it the outskirts, i consider it the center of peace. others are experiencing exactly this russians who do not have enough money to travel in russia to the russian federation, which is not very mobile, forgive me for stopping you a little, but look, they cannot reach their homeland and understand how people live there , who live near the border with ukraine, how they live

on the far eastern coast, but at the same time, they are going to fight in ukraine from vladivostok. they are going to fuck for, and you know what kind of thing it is, first of all, they are covering for the idea that there is russia and it is big because it is the idea that russia is bigger there i settled in eh in childhood is educated a-ah in people who lived all their dreams. the union is also well understood because the country was even bigger there in my childhood and eh, you know only trips with parents to the republics of the soviet union a-ah with brought меня к мизунный мисли that in general people live on these freedoms and uh in uh i don't know and an uzbek man is somewhere 30 years old in a different way. in one country a-a this is one of one fact and another fact

five such a thing is drinking here russia is falling apart not because it is so big and can't be uh together is the russia of moral bankruptcy going to end or not? i don't know. maybe it won't. everything piled up on me. he reads about how it was saved and he was able to turn it into a good human country where normal people can live. but the fact that he was ending but the fact that - the idea appeared and is discussed in under the conditions, it will not pass. thank you, we are just a time limit. i follow the rules. timur olevsky, the editor-in-chief of the insider, was on a live video call . our colleagues olena chabak and kostiantyn lichevskyi will continue the broadcast. mykyta mykhalelova and i say good night and

see you stay with us take care