labeled from his war in chechnya has shown he wants victory at any cost. his political career began with the war in chechnya. and the question is, will it ends with the war in ukraine? of the 2 years after russia invaded ukraine, its troops are surging on multiple fronts, while a dwindling supply of western weapons and munitions leaves ukraine, outgoing countries on nato's eastern flags are stepping up their warnings that a victorious russia might come for them. next, while the desk of russian opposition later i'll explain nevada, they served as a reminder that vladimir put in those few scruples will the west tier to call to step up the fight. today we're asking rushes war on ukraine. no strategy in the

west. the welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest, sabina, i have no reports for the german broadcaster, deutschland folk. she's in eastern europe expert and has just published a book on what will become of russia. it's also a pleasure to welcome raphael, los, he's a policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations. his work focuses on security and defense in the euro, atlantic area, and my esteemed colleague roman gunter, and co also joins us. he's a news editor on the ws europe and russia desk, and frequently reports from and on ukraine. so i'd like to start out by asking all of you to share your assessment of the situation in ukraine 2 years after russia

launched the attack roman. what's the perspective in ukraine at this moment as well? the situation is very, very critical. i would say would kind of say it's open enough. so the people were not expecting in ukraine. the west, especially the united states, will just stop supplying weapons. in particular, i see a lot of shells which are very important and this will adjust that this moment um they will, they will probably expecting this to happen after the presidential elections in united states. so they are not prepared for this. and europe, the european union is not fulfilling on its promise to deliver 1000000 a 2 little shelves to ukraine by march. so those 2 developments are very, very dangerous and we see the results. the results. are you grand losing territory again? and exactly, i wanted to ask you about that, the town of, of disco. so it just in the past weeks and that had

been very important for you creating you create and held it for 10 years following russians. invasion of on boss in 2014. what's that done tomorrow in ukraine as well? um, of course is a hard blow for ukraine because as you've just mentioned, of div uh, which is a small town very close to the in the ask uh now what was the stance easy point uh, ukrainians. uh, i've built very, very in sophisticated facilities the and were able to hold it for, for any other 10 years things 2014, when the russian under covered invasion, invasion started in don't boss. i bought the, the ukrainians were just out numbered and out. guns today are enough to you've got and they losing that strategic strategic town. ukraine now lose this, the opportunity to advance further. and it opens up to them maybe to,

to direction advance felt that some of the, to the west, and it's a good question. no, we don't know the answer yet. how good are the opinions and kind of defense facilities behind of to you've got because the impression is and this is also something that people in ukraine discussed or are discussing. now, if your brain had enough time to build facilities, the 2nd of the 3rd line of defense behind of div car, because the opinion presents savanski has only ordered 2 to dig in, as he said. and to build a new concrete facilities in awesome. so somebody that let me come to you, i know you've just come back from a key of you're also an expert on russia. so share your perspective if you would, on both sides. and particularly with regard to russia, it's mobilizing fresh troops, it's manufacturing new weapons. it's pushing now on multiple fronts of

is it more resilient than many of us had thought it seems to be bought. uh, the last us in of the of caught all is a very high. what do you heard um, 16000 soldiers on that. and uh, one die. so quote, military block on a road about this and suddenly he died into the 2nd. and this was in week and obviously it's not a fact which pleases the kremlin and, and president, 14 that somebody is so open a speak. so open be about losses about numbers. but on the other hand, i, i would say of to you've got, it's very serious. that's right. it's a dollars. but they're on success as well for ukrainian military for the army, especially when it comes to crimea. when you look at the sol called

a fleet of a restaurant in a sea of us to poor, for example, the most is also very high. they lost 2 or 2 of the whole fleet, and that means that the ukrainians, it's more in the shadow on the sides, but we shouldn't forget the crime. yeah. it's the starting point of very, very of, of, of a lot of attacks of ukraine cities and in these over the whole country roughly, oh, during last year's grinding war of attrition, a word we were using a lot not on here in this program, but elsewhere was stalemate, is it one still, or are things now tilting in russia's favor? but i think changes are happening on the ground, the hottest i pointed to the situation in the black sea, the russian black sea feed being largely decimated and unable to, you know,

threaten ukraine's gray and exports to odessa. for example, if things are happening in the air as well, we see a precarious situation for the cleaning as far as the f. 16 deliveries from the west med should happen soon, but these things sort of happened. and yeah, as all was seeing the intense efforts by ukraine's wisdom support us to get more ad defense missiles to ukraine to protect cities, but also to protect the troops on the front lines. just the fact that we don't see changes and the sort of line of contact between the 2 ground forces doesn't mean that we do have a stand made at the strategic level. and both sides, i think, are working hard to, to identify ways to get out of this. they are made on the ground and to exploit opportunities as they arise out of technology increase more likely to be, to take the advantage. to large extent. i think that depends on the west on us, on decisions that we make in the coming days and weeks and months. we've seen now a couple of western countries signing

a security agreement with ukraine out of that could emerge animal men term for a defense deliveries to ukraine. but it's a political decision ultimately. and the fact that in germany and the bonus tag, just this moment, we're still wrangling around the question of whether or not to deliver taurus, cruise missiles, for example, is one that is extremely frustrating, not only from an analytical perspective, but shortly, also for ukrainians on the ground on the front line. let's drill a little bit deeper now on what the defeat of these con tells us about the larger picture we've been calling it a pivotal battle for months here on to the point. and as we've heard it has fallen . what does that tell us about ukraine's situation? exactly 2 years after proteins launched his attack as the last images of ukrainian soldiers, enough deeds costs, at least for now, they had to abandon it to avoid being surrounded by russian troops. for russia,

the capture of the almost entirely destroyed town is an important symbol. it represents its greatest military success in almost one year. the last was when the ukrainian city of buck moved fell. the decisive factor here, russian air superiority, plus a large contingent of tanks, artillery and soldiers. beautiful, this is an obvious success. i congratulate you. it must continue believing that i forgot such as it is now an extremely difficult situation at several parts of the front line. exactly where russian troops had concentrated maximum reserve in their taking advantage of delays and aid to ukraine. and this is a very sensitive matter. there are tillery shortages, there was a need for front line air defense and for a longer range of our weapons, not physically. instead of a 1000000 artillery shells, so landscapes troops will initially only receive around half from e u countries and in the us, republicans are blocking urgently needed funds. after the fall above discussed,

the president visited the front near the strategically important city of coupons. there could soon be another russian breakthrough here. 2 years after russia's invasion. how long can you crane hold out? and let me put that question directly to roman or so the answer is simple. as long as you can can hold out for a long time, but the west must deliver at the moment to the west is not giving enough weapons until the ukrainians have to retreat. if this tendency wouldn't, will not change in the coming weeks and months, then we can expect more traits from ukrainian troops though you kind of just throw in more and more. so we'll just, ukraine doesn't have enough. some just, this is a huge problem. the as ation a new bill is now a new grain empowerment, the but the presence of lensky is very cautious. and with that,

because the more than ukraine is also slightly changing. but there, i'm not enough. and so um it is a very tense situation for ukrainians, but to answer your question once again and it's it's, it's for the west to delete what happens without the less than the bunch of grand new kind will not be able to whole tell the story. raphael, you mentioned, of course, the same point in the report that we just saw. a president soleski russo landscape refers directly to, to ukraine's need for frontline air defenses. and indeed, the russians took of they've got not least because they had the aerial advantage squared. that is going to come from who, who are the key partners who could provide what you create needs right now, that is a good question and there are defense, i think from the draft respect of consist of, of 2 parts. one is ground based there, defends and we see some capabilities having been supplied to you trying to be

trained. also, primarily i'm task with protecting civilian infrastructure and population centers. what your credit is lacking as mobile ad defends on the front lines and then it's, you know, get parts to dump sort of anti aircraft tanks that are very effective that were provided by germany early on in the war. but they're too few. when number i'm the 2nd leg of your credit or defends will be the 16 that us we and allowing new claims and for us to replace the losses and make across that they were using since the war began. but it is not at the scale or at the speed of relevance to the degree that ukraine's f also be able to push back rushes. f was from using these kinds of flight bombs that have been pummeling of these gun and other places on the front line. what is required as a more modern version of this and the more i'm sustained effort at an increasing the scale of the western support and in the out of funds where i'm both on the ground but also in the year. so the western support at the moment is not increasing

. sabina, it is decreasing, or at least suspended, particularly in the us presidents savanski fluid in germany recently to make his case. and in fact, germany has now become the 2nd biggest donor of military 8. and as a major donor of humanitarian aid, as well can germany make up for the gaps that the u. s. is leaving currently. so i think it's difficult to, but what in difference between the beginning of the war and now is that there is a bill to fill at least a pump did this gap and would i saw when i was in key of was how frightening it this when you know that the systems aren't able to shut down or drones or rockets and to sit in the cellar and to wait and not to know whether it's over or not. and this interrupt every day and several times. and this was really in

the capital of ukraine and then other cities, of course, the, the very, very feeling of war, the war isn't over what, what some might think. and in europe and germany as well. we are in the middle of this war and this war has at least sweep benefits and one, but a few of the put, put a so called is the and as a field, the concept see liverts in, in different cities which disrupt the everyday life. very much of people and that fee have to consider and when we count on give a good numbers, how many rockets or drones are shut down or bad or shut down? this is really frightening because if it goes our fuel and fewer and this speaks of

the lack of munition and this is really serious, let me ask you briefly if you would, you said, certainly germany has heard the call. interestingly enough, a recent survey shows that german public opinion is changing. for a long time, there was a lie between what the leadership wanted to do or last schultz with his famous speech that site vendor right after the russian invasion, where he said, we have to step up, public opinion long lagging behind. but it now looks to be that the majority of german se, the situation is serious. we must act. uh, this is essentially a wake up call. we'll that change how rapidly the government respond. i mean, i think this is really a move we see, and this is very important because it's of the hesitation of the government of the lead us of, of different punches in the coalition. they responded every time on

a certain pacific, a pet sophistic knew it was in the members. and now i would say it isn't over, but it's not a strong edit to used to be. and now the government isn't it for you then it it has been bought be are in the middle of, of the desk at the beginning of the discussion with us to spend money for a full balance, for your faithful own purpose or for social needs and, and coming with this uh to, to discuss the question whether it's necessary to think about a draft to, to a strength and openness, where at least the needs of 20000 soldiers and a re, this question is really very sensitive. and i would think that it's

a long way to go. the roman public opinion, of course, is shifting not only in germany, but also in the united states. we're seeing particularly among republican voters. and there is a presidential election coming up in the us. so their opinion is very important. a rising on willingness to support ukraine saying that us money should be spent at home to secure the us southern border. and in the face of that, and with republican front runner, donald trump saying that he could and the ukraine war in a day, presumably by negotiating with slide them, they're putting, would you say that president's lensky is coming under increasing pressure to go to the negotiation table? as well, of course this pressure has been growing for some time now. and you're absolutely right. i was at the munich security conference just

a few days ago. and i spoke to the western intellectual and analytic, yvonne christophe, who just throws an oscar about that, saying that now wars are sometimes decided to develop books and they'll just on the battlefield. and he said that they will just changing just if, as you've mentioned in the united states in europe, i knew crime himself was there on no more ukrainians and thinking pauses both negotiations, negotiations in general. there are still about 90 percent of ukrainians who are not ready to see the territories. but what the cost of said, i think is very important. he says, we might, might suggest to a point to interest in, in, in, in the coming months this year. probably after presidential elections in russia, wind rush, i would be ready to negotiate some kind of a cease fire. and he says that that is only would only make sense to talk about it if, if, if nato would be ready to, to accept you crying on

a fast track. so that you kind would have security guarantees. otherwise, there is a great danger that the russia would seek ukraine to become some kind of a pet us time. so no man's land, you know, no rule of law, nothing. this is, this is what motors him and not content or disagree. very interesting, very briefly, if you would raphael of negotiations, even the chairman of the munich security conference prior to the conference, talked about the need for a negotiated solution. is this the time? i mean, if you look at the sort of universe of cases of wars around the world throughout the time, most was and then negotiated settlement. but the single sheet and settlements usually reflect the balance of forces on the ground. and i think no side at the moment, faces and incentives to really make a compromises. i don't quite agree with roman's point on the, on the russian presidential election. i think the west presidential election is

probably the more decisive factor in both sides. attitudes, 20 goal. she ations, but there's efforts, of course, by all sides, among the question of support us of ukraine, ukraine's government and cooperation with the swiss government organizing a peace conference, various delegations from african states, from brazil, from china, trying to bring the sides together. these having produced anything meaningful yet. and so i think over the course of the but probably be on the next year. what was the movement on that front? as western politicians were debating in unit one piece of news temporarily to silence the noisy hall, the death of opposition leader. i'll explain the volume the and his widows. defiance call for justice served as a reminder of put ins, perfidy, the consequences of western equivocation, or after alexis of all of these death in a penal colony. russian police are taking action against people who want to pay tribute to the coach and critics. even if just with flowers,

mountain and the scenes that it is now worse than installing this time stupid, even though it's almost too much them. so it is important to live in a democratic state in the 21st century and not in a dictatorship. what is it? this is what pollutants russia looks like. here he has shown with soldiers from the forces fighting and ukraine. he's using all his power to ensure support for his vision of a great russian empire defending itself against the hostile west. whoever criticizes the war risks arrest, whoever like bodies, not the listing has the slightest chance of success. and the so called presidential election is not allowed to stand. and now, nope, all of these death. his widow has accused wooten of murdering her husband and announced that you're able to continue the work of alex say not only continue to fight for our country, let me ask you to support me on this,

dice it out. those some really valid these legacy and pollutants power will the resistance and your sabina, usually on the bottom they receive the news of her husband's death at the munich security conference, a number of experts have suggested that that was no coincidence. you've called russia a mafia state, would you say that this killing was calculated the way a mafia done might do it to achieve a purpose, or i'm sure it was calculated and this speaks about putting some distance to over to a to z, z o position. and this task for the position to find this where she is silver, she which it's, it's, uh, i would say it's unbelievable and it's on so for both if and so will. because this is really a mafia state of what to put is not the state and mafia side by side,

but it's 11 they are the the old friends of 14 the don't the power and the government, the most important a and yeah. what, what, how to say the, the most important parts of a economy? what, when it comes to the private armies, everything is in their hand and to fight such a very strong opponent is almost impossible. roman. what would you say that the timing and nature of nevada, these deaths tell us about put into the frame of mind and about put into intentions as well? the timing was definitely to signal to the west before the munich security conference. look,

you wanna negotiate with me. we can negotiate about the ukranian defeat. that's all . so if you want to show strength, i can show you my strength. so i think it was a very clear message and i think that was to receive the message. but what we have to wait for for more, more concrete steps as a response and we'll just sanctions. but the best, the response on this is what was the morning munich, wood painted to give more weapons through your crime. and as we are talking about the war, we've just had some remarks by the phone martian because that the media madrid said that the restaurant wants key of the grant and capital. and so that is one. so i guess a very important lexi port. i still held by ukraine. i think the signals coming from moscow are very clear they will, will continue. so the west needs to bear that in mind. and raphael, that is exactly what the nato member countries on the eastern flank of the alliance

are saying, most especially developed countries, one of whose foreign ministers, lens bag, as recently said, russians are all in. and if you create and falls protein will not stop, he is coming for us. do you agree and has the west got that message? does it have a strategy? i think what was slowly moving towards getting it and, and drawing the right conclusions from this chapter. set that up for the test, presenting to us that has a monitor dimensions, certainly, and nato is working on that. but it also has a political dimension of reaffirming level of democracy in europe and a destiny cannot make that mention about risk making supply chains more resilient. and looking also to china at the drawing challenge that rush, i'm trying to present to us europeans and the brought up political best. sabina, the clock is ticking. has the message gotten through one word? i hope so. thank you so much to all of you for being with us. thank you very much to you, roman for joining us virtually. and thanks to all of our viewers. so you service

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definitely no fear of the dogs. it takes more than a sensible drive to check and here. full 119 nieces underground. come to what is likely the deepest hotel in the deep sleep in north wales, euro matt, in 30 minutes on the w. the sometimes to show that you out to the highlight for every week. not the, not the it's been 2 years now since about an inclusion. so just text you great. you're used to seeing hundreds of thousands of people killed millions more thoughts to leave out. we'll be looking at how the ukrainians for state living

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this is dw news life from berlin, 2 years of war in ukraine. russia launched its full scale invasion on this day in 2022. its war has killed and wounded hundreds of thousands and displaced millions of ukrainians from their homes. we take a look at where the conflict could be headed and its 3rd year. also coming up the stars of this year as berlin ali, we'll take a look at some of the favorites to win the gold and silver bears at the berlin international film festival. the.