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tv   State Department Official on Israel- Hamas War  CSPAN  February 21, 2024 3:06am-3:55am EST

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>> good morning, good afternoon and good evening wherever you are. i hope you're safe and above all healthy. i'm the senior fellow at the carnegie endowment center of peace and i host a series of virtual conversations on critical important issues. i'm truly pleased to welcome to the show a friend and colleague of many years, david satterfield. i first met david when we were both working in the bureau of intelligence and research he was on temporary assignment and i was doing lebanon and pella sitting in during the 1982
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invasion and the tragedy that followed american policy. david has had his distinguished career in the foreign service. he has a capacity to read the real estate of a complex region accurately and to do so with great power and with great impressions. seeing the world the way it is,
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i would argue can be very discouraging, sometimes paralytic. seeing the world the way it is is critically important if we are going to have any attempt at trying to change it. welcome to carnegie connects. >> happy to be here. >> we don't have a lot to time -- a lot of time and there is to cover. before we delve -- delve into the details, you might give us a quick view of white you and i agreed on this for weeks now, this crisis is so complex. our friend and colleague bill burns, the cia director, in 40 years of working the issue has written that it's more tangled and explosive. it's been going on for longer than any arab-israeli war with the exception of the first in 1947 and maybe the second and to follow. i --ntefada. what makes this crisis so
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complicated? >> what happened on the morning of october 7 was a shock, shock to israelis, shock to israel as a nation and to the fundamental social contract that israelis have lived by since those events of 47 and 49. they offer their sons and daughters to the state, some of them don't come back from service. they do so in order to secure for themselves would bill clinton famously referred to in the context of israel and palestine is the ability to enjoy a normal life. president clinton described that as a quiet miracle. it's a miracle that's been fundamentally challenged by the brutal beast shall attacks on october 7. i cannot overstate the impact, the compression of social, political state in israel across the spectrum of political views
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by the taking and continued holding of 134 hostages, many of home have perished but many of whom are alive. the dislocation, the displacement of 200,000 israelis from the north threatened by hezbollah attacks and from the gaza cartel from communities outside of gaza. this is a continuing trauma in many ways. a common friend of ours said israel is always in that morning of october 7 and it needs to move out of that. it can't happen until several things occur. the hostages have to come out. there has to be a resolution posed in the north. there is something else, prime minister netanyahu speaks about total victory in the campaign against hamas. in the discussions about what total victory means, there is a real world yardstick and it's
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too full. hamas must at the end of this conflict not be able to challenge and deny governments and administrations on the 2.2 million residents in gaza to anyone but themselves. the ability to be a threat to impose their will. they cannot be in a position militarily to ever again rebuild the kind of challenge that israelis that manifested on october 7. those are hard goals. they are being conducted in a campaign environment which is like -- which is unlike anything the united states with all our military experience i've ever had to do. it's a campaign fought in one of the dentist populated -- densest popular places on earth. people cannot go to somewhere else for safety. we evacuated over 1.3 million people.
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they live outside the city. there is no such potential here. you have to compress this is what israel has done, more people to smaller and smaller places. it's above ground and below ground campaign. there is a vast tunnel network. added to the complexity which no one anticipated when the campaign began. hamas, is correctly designated as a terrorist group. they care not a whit about the population, the civilian population of gaza. they've had 17 years in which to embed themselves in, below, among, beside the civilians of gaza who they ruthlessly have sacrificed and exposed to harm in a calculated fashion. how do you achieve those goals which israel wants to see done in which we strongly sue for
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regarding hamas? in this kind of environment. it takes time and it takes space. here we come to my mission -- >> i was just going to say, you been on the ground since october and you've seen the israeli response, the blockade, the air campaign which some would argue is among the most intense of the 20th-century ground campaign which is led to an expenditure ride in palestinian deaths and what we are about to discuss is a humanitarian catastrophe for the 2.3 million people in gaza. you have israel living in the shadow of october 7 and a second traumatized community which is living in the shadow of what israelis in an effort to destroy hamas militarily has suffered. if i were to ask you, i will
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cover three points -- how would you describe the humanitarian situation, particular on the issue of health care? i know you've talked at length about this. what are the obstacles to a surgeon humanitarian assistance? i want to close because this is underappreciated -- as the situation is now as you see in february as to where we were on october 21 where there was zero trucks getting into gaza? >> secretary blinken, i and the president first came to israel 15-19 october, what we heard was ghazi's close down. not one drop of water, not one drop of fuel is going to enter. that wasn't a sustainable position. very rapidly, we moved the extraordinary achievement of 20 trucks of humanitarian
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assistance per day. that was as of 21 october and that's not that long ago. where are we today? when crossings and inspection points are fully open and functioning, that's been a challenge because of demonstrations, we can move 250-300 trucks routinely through. what it does is it feeds over 2 million gazans. it does not give them full nutrition but it keeps them from starvation and that's not a modest achievement. it's significant. it doesn't do more than that. in the words of the secretary, it's wholly inadequate. it's a significant achievement but it isn't enough. much more has to be done. commercial goods need to come in, humanitarian assistance needs to flow more evenly, regularly and in a secure fashion to all of gaza including
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the north. the north is off limits virtually everyone. maybe 300,000 palestinians are still there but we don't know for certain. there has to be at scale assistance. that is going to take further progress but you asked about health. the health situation is miserable. health facilities have been damaged in this fighting. it is hamas which has utilized these facilities for its own purposes. there is an operation going on as we speak now at nasser hospital. that operation according to israel is uncovered in the hospital many who were involved in the october 7 attack. the overall consequences compressing this volume of people in the smaller and smaller place, 1.5 million inrafa which had a pre-october 7 population of two of -- of
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300,000. it creates a crises of sanitation, potable water, feeding can be managed. it's the health implications of this that is critical. we are seeing disease indicators growing. it's winter. there are storms. that creates a further problem when there isn't adequate shelter. most of these folks don't have adequate shelter. how do you fix this? you decompress this enormous imposed dislocation and you allow folks to go to suitable shelter with humanitarian access and support. back to the places they came from or to safer areas. that's easy to say. it is harder to achieve in this environment. >> i'm assuming the return to northern gaza, even though i had thought there was limited
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numbers of palestinians returning is blocked by the israelis? is that correct? >> the idf is still engaged in kinetic activities there and in other places despite the campaigns that began there in late october. hamas has emerged again. it's fired rockets from gaza city, it has challenge the idea of at numerous locations in the north. it's a dangerous place to be, despite all of this, we have insisted, the president, the secretary, there's got to be access to the north and it's got to be at scale humanitarian assistance provided. >> if i were to ask you what is the one key to not solving the military and situation and beginning reconstruction, what is the one key to addressing the situation that now exists on the ground? is it an extended pause or
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cessation of military activity for an extended period of time? is that the single most important change that needs to occur before the international community, you and agencies can even hope to do more to feed 2 million people, is that the key? >> it is indeed. without an enduring cease fire and that cease fire must be part of a hostage release. we do not support a standalone cease fire. that would be a gift to hamas and it's not something we would support. a hostage release which is accompanied by a prolonged cease fire or rolling extension of cease fire's or pauses, this would give the international community and give israel the opportunity to see the at scale movement of humanitarian assistance moving throughout all
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of gaza. it's also an opportunity to begin the decompressing of the trauma in israel as they see their citizens come out. it's absolutely essential. without a cease fire, what we are all doing, the u.s., the international humanitarian community is dealing around the margins to prevent or mitigate a worse situation emerging. it's not moving them the needle further into the green. >> i know you can't talk about hostage negotiations but what is the nature of the impasse that prevents the talks. i wonder if ramadan in rafa has perhaps begun to accelerate the calculations. i have to remind myself that despite external pressures from any number of quarters, this
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conflict has been driven -- the litter -- the middle east is littered with great powers who thought wrongly and could impose their wills and strip -- and smaller ones. this trajectory is driven by is really needs and requirements and the hamas needs and requirements. it's a very difficult proposition i think to accept. is it possible to imagine that we could be looking -- i know there's been some progress and i know nothing is certain on this score, but has the urgency in your judgment, which is the one factor that usually brings successful negotiations to a close, as that increased, in your judgment? >> without going into the details, i believe it has.
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we believe that a deal is possible. it's not there yet. we see it as an achievable thing. there are difficult issues involved in concluding that deal. it can be done. hamas has suffered by this military campaign. there is no question that as israel has advanced and that they have got more better information on leadership and structures, the way they work, they are feeling squeezed. yes, i think there are building pressures. in israel itself, i think the urgency is simply a national urgency. people want to see the hostages come out. i would say they want to see them come out at a price and there is an understanding that there will be a price to be paid as there have been in previous situations. it's a price that has to be
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measured with what is being achieved in terms of we hope everyone coming out. >> before we leave the assistance question, got a couple of points. anunra-allegations of complicity , further charges by the israelis with as many as 10%, 13,000 during normal times under staff now down to 3000. suspension of assistance by the united states and others. can i assume that our position on anunra right now is to identify other u.n. agencies which will channel our assistance? >> the executive branch of the administration has suspended assistance to andra.
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congress is made clear in the several different legislative vehicles that emerged from the senate that u.s. funding for undra will stop. it's not a suspension, it is a prohibition. we believe that the functions performed by unra right now that are relevant to the situation gaza, logistics and management of that delivery, the feeding programs that it manages and is supposed to deliver to others, the system of medical care they directly provide, those need to be sustained. the way to sustain them in this situation given our own suspension, given the congressional, so far, mandates that unra will not be funded in the future is to find a way to continue the unra functions.
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unra is the largest single entity in gaza for provision of this kind of assistance. the program has 70 stefan gaza and unra has 3000 and these operations, 13,000 overall. we are working aggressively as possible with the u.n. family and you and agencies to see how these key functions can be sustained as we look at the months ahead. >> you don't have to respond to this but given the congressional input here and the nature of our polarized politics, maybe on this issue, it's not so polarized among democrats or republicans that unra in terms of our direct support, they are probably going to be closed. >> that is certainly what we see as congressional bipartisan intent.
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another question on diversion, this has been diversion of assistance both commercial assistance related to our you in an ngo related assistance. has hamas been successful at all? do you have reports or allegations, has a single israeli said hamas is diverting the systems. unpack that for us. >> sure, no israeli official has come to me, come to the administration with specific diversion or theft of assistance delivered by the you and -- by the u.n. in the south of gaza, the north is a different story, since october 21 when assistance resumed. is there a hamas presence amongst you staff?
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absolutely, without question. does hamas have its own interests and using other channels of assistance? without question. the issue of you and formal -- you and formal diversion ,un formal diversion, no such accusations. >> in cuba looting -- including fuel distribution as well? >> millions of tanks delivered thanks to our efforts. >> there was a report last week which indicated the idea of firing upon hamas escorts of trucks into gaza. it wounded seven or eight additional hamas operatives. is there any credence to that? >> the idf did indeed strike at
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seven eight or nine police officials including a commander whose units have been involved in providing escort for you and convoys carrying aid. this is a dangerous area. the u.n. had been attacked first by desperate mobs than by criminal elements. they required security. with those attacks on the police escorts, let's be clear, when we say police, we mean the to fecteau police which includes hamas elements and also includes officials who don't have a direct association with whom mass -- with hamas. with the departure of police escorts, it has been virtually impossible for the u.n. or anyone else, jordan, the uae, any other implementer to safely move assistance in gaza because
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of criminal gangs including today. we are working with the israeli government, with israeli military and see what solutions can be found because everyone wants to see the assistance continue. no one wants to empower hamas but there is a balance. there is a way ahead which we need to find which allows for the secure and safe delivery of assistance. we can get it into gaza. we can move hundreds of truckloads of assistance per day over the border to warehouses but what we cannot do is see that assistance effectively moved to the people of gaza in a secure and safe manner. >> so it's not just getting things in, it's delivery within gaza. >> that's it. >> you identified criminal gangs and elements as a key challenge and problem in this regard? >> it is the criminal gangs on one side. it is the rising value of
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humanitarian assistance in the black market because of the inability over these last two weeks because of demonstrators who closed areas and now because of the attacks on the you and convoys and others, the value of things has risen which only feeds a vicious cycle to impel more criminal activity. the solution is to be able to move at scale distribution in a safe and secure matter. -- manner. that will provide some test that will necessitate security in some form. >> one last question on assistance, i realize you are working with the israelis and egyptians. to what degree are each of those actors, particular on the israeli side, given the toxic environment in israel against the provision, of humanitarian
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assistance into gaza? the israeli press, israeli television are not carrying much in the way of mainstream israeli media on suffering and desperation of palestinians in gaza. to what degree are the israelis an obstacle to the provision of assistance? there are reports about dual use items which are done in our -- on arbitrary basis. one day vitamin powde is put on ther list of prohibited items or an x-ray machine. is that a legitimate charge? >> if you asked the vast majority of israelis as posters do what their view is of gaza, it would not be in support of robust humanitarian assistance.
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to the individuals who perpetrated october 7. they are holding their hostages and who they believe benefit from this assistance. the united states and international community and the government of israel have a different view on this. we want to provide the maximum degree of humanitarian support under the extraordinarily difficult challenges and circumstances of a kinetic campaign above and below ground, compression of populations is an absolutely critical element in preserving and extending the time and space for the achievement of the strategic objectives in gaza which we support and it is also morally right and correct to do. let's not instrumentalized humanitarian assistance. it is also the right thing to avoid 2.2 million people, men,
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women and children from suffering when there is a way to mitigate that suffering. that's important, too. it's important for israel into the future as it is for americans. >> let's move on to the u.s.-israeli relationship. the question i'm asked most frequently is five months in, is the president support for israel which has been extraordinary by any standard, there are many reasons to explain it. he alone among american presidents feels a part of the israeli story. he's got this unique bond with the people of israel in the idea of israel and the security of israel, not so much for the current prime minister. if you step back and explain, we've tethered herself to israel and its difficult to choose another direction.
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if you had to explain it, why this preternatural bond in support for israel during this crisis? >> i can give you a list. it's a pretty straightforward answer. president biden believes it is the morally correct thing to do. that the slaughter of jews on october 7 has to be met with a response. it's not retaliation or revenge but a response for the sake of the people of israel and their future that prevents this from ever happening again or anything like it, that prevents hamas from emerging as the victors here, the president sees not just israel and its future as tied to that outcome in which hamas is not able to project itself as the winner, he sees it
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as important for the region as a whole and is actually correct to do that. as well as for broader u.s. interests. but at the core comments because he believes it is the right thing to do. >> it's not rare among american presidents but it is extraordinary the degree of moral clarity that the president has brought to the israeli trauma. this is where it gets extremely complicated. it's harder to bring the same sort of moral clarity, not to hamas but to the exponential rise of palestinian deaths in gaza, it's a hard sort of balance to maintain. >> it is. it is a hard thing to maintain. i don't use the term balance.
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i would say it's full moral clarity that takes in all elements of the situation. secretary blinken has spoken publicly on many occasions directly to this issue. in his last visit a week ago to israel, what the secretary said was every death to ministers us, every death is a kick in the gut is the phrase he's using the past. he spoke about dehumanization. he hamas dehumanize the israelis and the jews that were killed on october 7. it dehumanizes every day hostages that it holds. it's critical that israel and israelis and the world, we not dehumanize the innocent civilians or palestinians more broadly. >> those who want a much tougher administration response to this
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war with respect to israeli actions and conduct want the administration to exercise leverage that on paper clearly has. slow walking or restricting military assistance, changing the u.s. voting pattern, in new york, abstaining voting for a security council resolution, creating even a sustained public frame by the president that israel's conduct and behavior is undermining the nature of the u.s.-israeli relationship. none of those things have happened. my own sense and i like you to react to this is that beyond the emotional support, beyond the domestic/political repercussions and it works both ways whether democrats dead -- democrats are
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alienated in the present is caught between a republican party that the israel do no wrong party in a divided democratic party. is the practical reality that without israeli agreement to the one factor that would cease military activity and surged humanitarian assistance, release the hostages that in the end making a pariah out of benjamin netanyahu denies the administration what really needs which is an israeli-hamas deal. without that, i don't see where u.s. policy toward this entire conflict goes. how much of the restraint on the part of the administration is because of this? it's because of the investment
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trap that we are in that the israelis are in that palestinians are in. how much of it is a practical recognition. whatever his personal relationship and view of benjamin not -- a benjamin netanyahu, that agreement is essential. >> this is much bigger in terms of the calculations that any president has to make in this circumstance than a personal relationship. it has to do with what is effective in achieving the goals of eliminating, reducing, degrading the hamas ability to remain the governing force in gaza, to remain a threat to israel and the region as a whole , getting the hostages out is absolutely essential. there cannot be a higher priority right now for israel or for us than achieving the release of the hostages, all of
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the hostages. everything else is subordinate to or secondary to that critical goal. the president concludes rightfully that to threaten the fundamental pillar of support right now for israel, our military assistance would both be wrong to do in a moral sense but also absolutely counterproductive to the objectives we want to achieve. what it would give to hamas to see that step taken, it would give assurance and up breadth of life. this is not something we want or will do. >> isn't it the key to the proverbial day after as well as the administration's broader planning on making sure that it
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can't be gaza holy -- only which means tethering the day after. i'm not sure there will be a day after. it won't be a bright line dividing the military activity from sustain stability. aside from everything you said, isn't it a practical reality that without the israeli-hamas deal, you don't get extended quiet, you can't search humanitarian efforts into guys and you can't free the hostages and you can create political space in israel and there is no prospect between now and november of any broader initiative having any resonance either attracting friendly states for attracting much support certainly from the current israeli government or its successor government? isn't that deal critical to
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paving the way for a broader future? >> all of my efforts are focused on trying to take us to a before that offers the possibility and the hope of the day after with all of the things you talk about. a hostage release, the attendant extended cease fire, those are absently critical to giving just to getting all of those things that make that day before, hard as it is, possible so that you got a chance of getting to the much more difficult day after proposition. yeah, you cannot flip the sequence but i want to be very clear, there is much chatter in the press about an elaborate, complex arrangements the u.s. sees the hostages released as a subordinate element of a deal on palestinian statehood or a saudi
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deal with israel. let me unpack that for a moment. >> please. >> it is getting the hostages out. it is getting an enduring cease fire that is attendant to that rolling release. it's getting humanitarian assistance in and it is seeing if a greater stabilization situation on the ground can be achieved that allows the broader aims with respect to the hamas threats are challenged that we achieve that time and space i spoke up. that's what's most important. all those other good things are out there in some more distant sense. but you will never get to them minus the priority of getting the hostages out. >> you and i know based on our experiences with middle east negotiations that they tend to
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have two speeds, slow and slower. that's clearly been proven the case with respect to any deal on hostages with hamas in its most likely to prove true in terms of creating a broader frame for the future. we talked about israel and hamas and i know this is not your brief but i wonder if you could offer some comments on the regional piece of this. some people argue we are now in the midst of a regional war. i don't see it that way although it's quite an extraordinary situation where you have these multi-fronts. there is a hot israel-lebanese border that has maintained a certain escalatory threshold which has prevented a broader conflict which just might get you into a regional war
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including a conflict between the united states and iran. i wonder if you can offer any comment on the regional dimension of this and the administration's concept of deterrence? >> the administration correctly does not ca regional conflict as inevitable. or even likely. that starts with the situation in the north. let's talk about what didn't happen on october 7. neither iran nor they chose this moment to launch a full out offensive against israel. they undertook symbolic steps through hezbollah, rocketing of the northern border to show solidarity as part of the axis
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of resistance. that rocketing which has expanded in scope and volume and has caused fatalities is a dangerous undertaking. it assumes that both size understand exactly with the other side intended when they did something. they can respond in scale and appropriately in a non-escalatory manner. there is a risk that somebody makes a miscalculation in all of this. there is certainly a risk of danger there. it is far from the perhaps anticipated by hamas opening of multiple full-blown fronts in israel that didn't happen. instead what has happened and it should not come as a surprise to anyone who has watched the pmf or the proxy forces in iraq and syria in yemen that there is been in instrumentalization of these proxies by tehran for a
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more distal attack, pressurization of the situation. it's to show they are there. it's not just station identification, it's more than that. the houthi attacks are -- on shipping are dangerous and they have provided strength and a response. the popular mobilization forces, the proxy elements in iraq have caused u.s. fatalities and serious injuries and retaliation is now taking place there as well and with secretary austen and others have said will be a rolling process which we will not announce in advance. none of this means a regional war or conflict is inevitable. it means that iran is using its assets in iraq, in syria and yemen and has to both signal it
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is solid with a mosque but perhaps in a way that tehran believes will not bring retaliation directly on themselves. that is a tale yet to be fully told. if iran persists in these attacks, the risk is always there that they will do something which absolutely requires a more direct u.s. response. >> one insider question -- >> let me add to that. on october 19, the president spoke to the whole issue. for those in the region who would take advantage and instrumentalized the situation gaza, i've got a word for you, don't, don't, don't. >> let me ask you an insider question. during the first several days following the october 7 surge,
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the israelis were seriously considering preempting hezbollah with a major operation and that did not occur because president biden turned it off. can you comment on that at all? >> when i said we do not see a regional conflict as inevitable or even likely, what that means is the highest degree of coordination, exchange of information, dialogue with israel to ensure there is no misinterpretation of information. there is no unintended escalatory step taken and that has certainly been our position since october 8 and i won't go beyond that. >> i understand. thanks for everything you've done. if anyone had a mission impossible it's you. it started with zero trucks on
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october 21 up to 300 which is a far cry. i would suggest humbly that if not for president binds intercession on the humanitarian side, there might be absolutely no aid getting to gaza. you are part of that. >> let me take a moment in closing to reinforce what you just said. we are accused of not doing enough. we accept that. the president, secretary of blinken have all said it's not enough, it's not adequate. we acknowledge that. look what we've done. we have moved from zero millions of liters of fuel to hospitals and to bakeries, thousands of metric tons of flour as a result of our funding and efforts and moved to see 2.2 million people in gaza. kara shalom is open as a
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critical point of inspection. none of this would have been possible without our sustained leadership and our willingness to be added morning, noon and night and working with partners in the region, partners in israel to make this possible against extraordinary countervailing forces. we understand that but the imperative of doing all we can do inadequate though it may be on the humanitarian front, it's intrinsic to those broader strategic goals. >> david, let me thank you for sharing your time and expertise. i know you are headed back and we all wish you well. stay tuned february 27 when i will sit down with david rennie the bureau chief in beijing for
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a discussion of getting china right. thanks again for everybody, to everybody for their participation and david, thank you so much and safe travels.
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