things up cedar key or cedar keys as it was known and i agree with he i think it really marks him as an easterner and we think of him as a westerner but he really, you know, sitting and recovering from apparent malaria on on the bank in you know on the shore in cedar key looking at the gulf, he really started to formulate those the concepts that that he took west with them and that really became the basis of of his environmental sensibility. so i think that's the east coast, i would say with some bias the gulf of mexico is a great contribution to this. greatest. thank you. before end, i want to remind each of you that these four gentlemen will be at the signing tents at 11 a.m., so you can continue your discussion with them, have a book signed, but please do visit them at 11 a.m. at the signing tents.

thank you for coming to this session today. thank. thank you. jack davis. dean king patrick dean ryan patel. thank youbetsy fisher martin isy award winning journalist and former tv news nbc where she produced net executive of me press with tim russert. she also was the managing editor of nbc news political program. currently, she is executive director of the women in politics institute at american university and a faculty member in their school public affairs. she also has provided on air analysis to several television networks, including cbs news, msnbc, nbc news and cnn.

and she's been included in washington's best and most influential journalist sites. and gq is powerful people in washington. thank you all. it's so nice to be in jackson, mississippi. not too far from my hometown in new orleans, i see an lsu shirt here. go, tigers, go tigers. and i feel since we're the supreme court, i feel like these guys are under oath now. so be ready for a really interesting discussion with our. i have no recollection of that. we we're here to talk inside washington. the view from washington. we're approaching a big political year, of course, which is already consuming headlines across the country. and we'll even become more so. and we have great panel here

today to talk about that and their books. i want to start just in introduction. joey garrison on the end is the white house correspondent for usa today. and he also covered that 2020 presidential race as a national correspondent based in boston. so thanks for being here, joey. thank. x next is ben terris, a writer for the washington post who has spent years covering politics via the people on the fringe and the players behind scenes, in the back rooms, on the hill and at crazy conferences, all of which are featured. he brings this wild group of characters together in his new book. it's called the big break the gamblers party, animals and true believers trying win in washington while america loses its mind.

oh. and then we have jonathan martin, who writes a reported for politico after, spending ten plus years as the national correspondent at the new york times. he is the coauthor, along with his colleague alex of the new york times bestseller that came out last. this will not pass. trump, biden, the battle for america's future. it is now out in paperback. and i should mention that both ben and, jonathan are going to be signing of their books at 15 in the signing tent. so hope you will come out for that as well. let me start, jonathan. yes. your book, this will not pass. this really isn't passing in many ways. right. it looks like we may actually have a sequel or a repeat. sometimes sequels aren't necessarily as good as the first one. are we going to see america's

america's national kidney stone? yeah. are we going to see trump biden again? how's that for a vivid illustration at this hour? first of all, thank you for having back to jackson. it's always a to be in mississippi, especially with this great, great company. and it's fine to see so many friends in, the audience. i think today we were as we here in august of 2023, it does appear we're likely to have a rematch of the 2020 election between, trump and biden. but i've politics long enough to know that what how things appear in the in the summer before a presidential campaign begins doesn't always always hold up and that things do change. and so now one of those people who thinks that this is a done deal, it's going to be trump and, biden. we can all sort of take a for the next six, you know, 14 months. i think there's still uncertainty out there as the the

great historian arthur schlesinger once said, the future our all of our certitude. and i think there's there's all manner of events to take place between now and next year. some of them to borrow a quote from the other great philosopher, donald rumsfeld. some of them are known unknowns and others are unknown unknowns. and the known unknowns are most obviously the former faced nearly 100 counts and for four separate jurisdictions next year, that's the biggest no an unknown. how that's going to shake out both in the primary and the general. and then you know other stuff that we don't know what's going to transpire. so i it's still early days yet. i just briefly i think there were a lot of democrats who thought joe biden would, in fact, be a bridge as he famously in 2020. it's a pretty -- long bridge.

and they haven't gotten to the other side yet as the bridge over pontchartrain. you keep going and going and and one of these days i'll be in new orleans and it's a hell of a long bridge. i middendorfit's taken a while and i think we can talk more about this, but i think biden is determined to run for reelection. it's hard to walk from that job even if you are almost 81. it's a job he's wanted for his adult life, so it's hard to walk away. and on the republican side, obviously trump is a dominant front runner right now, especially in national surveys. i think it's a more competitive race and we can discuss this further in some of the early states. but obviously, he a strong advantage, namely because there's no yet unified opposition him. this was the same path trump had in. he took advantage of a fractured field of 16. and if the party does not rally

behind one alternative, he are going into iowa and new hampshire. i he's going to have that same advantage again. he doesnhe just needs a pluraliy against fracture field. and let me you. gambling on politics by the way is prominently featured in this book. if you didn't think you could gamble on politics? you can. so let me ask you if you're in to put a wager on race. what? how do you see it? shape up in terms of if we're going to see versus biden? sure. well, for this book, i spent like two years with them kind of a bunch of lunatics. also a lot of very, very confident peopleto happen, like they literally would bet on elections and whether senators come back from a stroke by a certain date, whether legislation was going to pass, it was all very cynical and, kind of awful to watch in a way. and they were so confident and they were almost always, i mean, including on the bets at all. and so i will not be and i never

have made bets on politics. and i wouldn't predict what's going to happen. like a lot of people in washington can get away being wrong all the time and then they suffer no consequences. kind of shameless. i'm filled with shame all the time. i don't any more reasons to feel shame. and so i don't know what's going to happen. you know, i spent a bunch of time in iowa and, you know, it's true. trump might not get the majority. lot of people are tired of him, but also he might get enough and just run with the whole thing. well, and you mentioned your trip to iowa, you also did a piece on ron desantis as sort of previewing what's to come maybe next week in the debate, but sort of the awkward. ron desantis. give a little summary of the people that related to the awkwardness and the all about. i work at the washington post in the feature section and i just published the story. the other day about a group americans who can see themselves

in ron desantis. they awkward americans. they see themselves in ron and ron's awkwardness on the trail but they also hate what they see so awkward. yeah so you know people been paying attention to the desantis campaign. they've seen lots of clips of him not knowing how to talk to children. you know, children, someone drinking an and him saying, oh, that looks like a lot of sugar and not really not really doing the like, oh, what's your favorite flavor and you know and that kind thing or somebody said hi. he said, what's your name? he said, tim. and he said, okay. the kinds things that you don't, you know, you want to be better at that if you're running for president. but i did find a lot of people who saw themselves. a woman told me that watches these videos and she cringes but she's cringing because she sees herself and she told me a story about picking her kid from camp the other day and forgetting i.d. and telling counselor, oh, i can show you my my my scar from from delivery.

you are if you want to see it. and and he was like, oh, no. and she's like, oh, no. i was just joking. i was just joking. and she's like, i couldn't thinking about it. sometimes these can be endearing qualities that will work, you know, for guy. and so people saw themselves, but they they also found him like so unlikable. so relating to somebody and liking somebody, it's not always the same thing. and so it's not actually a huge advantage to have americans see themselves. but it was a very story. well, jonathan, you've you've covered. what are your thoughts on how he's going to do this week. well well first of all i should say i by ben's blog it's fantastic everything that you fear is wrong with washington it's proven right if you read this book the grifters the hacks it's really it's really a sorry spectacle, but one that you can't stop us game stop reading and i happens to be true.

your nation's capital so yeah look obviously the city has had a rough summer been a sort of of process stories that no candidate president wants all of them negative about his his organization. i think that probably matters less too of living andthat the e presidential race, the so-called invisible primary, the media coverage does matter. it kind of has a sort of tidal tisdale's, a sort of tidal way of it can lift and recede, kill. it's and sort of see that over the years in both parties. and obviously he's been hurt by

that coverage. but that coverage can shift and all and oftentimes the coso the. he's got to show what would sort of endear him in the first place to so many republicans voters on the debate stage. i think in some ways it's for because while yeah, the pressure is more intense because he's more honest, he's more the story, the opportunity i think is greater for him to without trump because you don't have the distraction of of trump being there and he has got at least a chance to emerge edge in the coverage that night in the days after as biggest storyline now the risk is that it's a bad storyline but at least he has a chance. if trump was there in every story that night in the days after would be whatever the crazy trump that are said. yeah. so i think it does at least offer see if there's an opportunity here. joey, let me bring you in. we're talking about trump not being the debate. well, of course, be at the deba. you just recently wrote a piece

for usa today about biden. you know, he's going to be taking probably 99% of the incoming fire. what is the biden campaign doing to try to counteract that early on? well, first of all, thanks again for having me here. it's great to be in mississippi with such unseasonably cool weather outside. so great to be here. and but yeah, so the biden campaign has been operating very quietly to the frustration of some some democrats, you know, so far since he announced in april, there's not been a big campaign rally. you know, they've been satisfied and, you know, the republicans duking it out at each other while were the biden campaign starts amassing a large campaign war chest, they. about $77 million on hand. but they're really going to use this debate as their first kind of pivot with a with a large tv blitz targeting, you know the maga extreme republican is that's how they'll be they'll be framing it it continues kind of the themes of the white house

over the last year and a half. so you'll also see the dispatching, jaime harrison, the dnc adviser.

lipp and it's now il abortion in think much more of an asset for democrats. you overturned legal abortion in this country, a sort of 50 year precedent that for lot of voters who don't follow politics that was a profoundly important there was a large factor in the midterms. and i think it's going to be a significant factor going. i mean, i think that is the issue of why democrats almost held on to the house last year. that's why they were able to hold onto the senate. and that is still alive.

we saw that in ohio two weeks ago with the with the vote that they we saw a little reminder all the more to kansas. i mean, kansas we're talking about. so, you know, that is that that is one of the real, you know, issues that gives democrats a lot confidence next year because this is real out there and on the republican side, too. and just being on the trail recently, like i've heard i heard a lot of people say on the stump, if it's republicans, it's going to be democrats and then you're going to see six new judges. and, you know, there's lots of fear mongering about about the courts saying if it's not going to be us, they're going to do things that you're never going to believe to the supreme court, you know, judges. so it does come up. i not necessarily like the top issue. i think it's going to be something talked about a lot, i guess. next question. hi, my name is courtney am from the madison area. i am a new graduate from ole miss. so to share that with you all. y'all mentioned that age was a big issue with biden's campaign

and. i was wondering if y'all saw any i could see any age limits regarding, the presidency come into play or if you think that's not a non issue at all or even in congress do. i think age limits. yeah well i suppose you'd have to change the constitution for that specifically. right i mean but you know we saw nikki haley of course wanted to have a competency test and that was a way, you know, for her to try to get some media play coming out of the election. you know, i don't see that we would put restrictions on you know above the age you know the bottom age when you can start tg traction but i don there being n age limits when like half of the people in charge in washington. are upright. yeah, you can bet that they wouldn't support that. it is a very old i mean, it's like i mean, it's feeling older day you still see her in particular i don't know yeah the leader mcconnell influence thing and you know it's just so yeah i

don't see it happening because a lot of people would be kicking themselves out of a job and that's a good point. i want to see self-interest, though. exactly. exactly. yes. hi, i'm john harris in new york. i'm from jackson. and my question is, what what is the jockeying look like for host mitch mcconnell? gop leadership in the senate? the question. once people named john. yeah now i mean the the three most obvious candidates are the three johns as they're called john thune from south, john barrasso from wyoming martin. jt senator was here. i wish we could put him on the when that day comes.s but those are kind of the three obvious genius dudes currently the number two. and so he's got relationship with the more recent that are more so could give him a slight leg up barrasso is trying to run as kind of a conservative alternative this we're staking out that turf.

what i wonder is if not going to be somebody else who gets in the race, i'm really curious about a potential horse who would jump in those are kind of the three most obvious candidates then right now, the number one way to not get that job is to like about talk about it too much though those are the three johns or this john two probably aren't going to talk about too much but you wouldn't even who the dark horse is necessarily because the second they get reported, they're just no longer in contention. well, and some of the characters in your book are probably working behind the scenes what they get like these things are, even though they're not talked about publicly, there's all sorts of oh yeah, there's always groundwork happening. yeah. and there's always people think that they're positive that they're, that their guy going to be the guy and that mcconnell will probably have a big say in it, too. i would i would think. yeah. yeah, exactly ben, let me just close to see if we have any more questions. i think we have just a few more minutes, but i want to just ask you from ajust this fascinatings

in the book, which is begging be a movie. i, i know right now with the writers strike ind of movie. how did you go about finding some of these folks? what what hoods did you have to look under and how did you get kind of their permission to follow them around? sure. i mean, it was one of the hardest parts of making this book. honestly, i. i cast a very wide and i spent a time a lot of time with a lot of people, including a lot of people who didn't end up being in the book. to be in the book. you needed to be like both interesting. you know, fascinating, funny, weird, you know, like a character. you actually want to follow. like they're in a novel but also the part of a big important story. and so i spent a lot of time with people who are fascinating and amazing characters but didn't up having a dramatic arc and so i spent all this reporting time and wrote all this stuff and then i had to come out of the book. and so what happened is a lot of the people that i ended up spending time with had, big

things happen to them often, bad things happen to them, and they regretted spending time with me by the end. but in the beginning, a lot of them wanted to spend time with me because they thought, oh, i'm on the rise, i'm having this great moment. i want someone to document this. if can be in a book in washington. i'm a player so they knew that they were working on the oh yeah i'm with i'm in every back room i'm playing poker with these guys. i'm going to parties with them. and then by the end they're basically like, why? why did i agree to this? it texting you like a lot of them tried to get out of of of the book by the end and various kind of ways and you know, i think there's a lot reasons in washington to spend time with a journalist. one is because they see no downside, even they come across poorly in this book. maybe they're famous enough to get a tv gig. this has happened in mark leibovich, this book, you know, this town, which is sort of a a book. i was that helped inspire this book. also, there are people who don't feel like they're taken seriously. they feel like they have big

ideas and often they're not as big ideas as they think they are, but they think nobody takes some. and i do take everyone seriously. the book i give them time to give me their stories like where they come from. you know and people like to talk until. all of a sudden they really don't. that point is a little bit too late, so while it's a terrific book and i just want to remind everybody, ben and jonathan are going to be signing copies of their book at 1215. so we hope you will out and join them for that. and appreciate everyone being here of applause for a moderator, wasn't she really. jon parrish peede is a board member for the mississippi book festival. the visiting writer in residence at mississippi valley state university and the former

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he will be dispatched to milwaukee. they you know, they are going to use you know, a lot of the themes that we see in among republicans, you know, they're going to start pouncing that i still think we're going to see a rather quiet biden they just d't see the need right now to totally engage while republicans are still unsettled and he's he doesn't seem to engage much even with the press he doesn't give very many interviews doesn't do very many news conferences is very protected by the staff. is it hard to cover a candidate president like that. it is hard. it can be difficult. it's a you know, it could be a sore subject among us reporters. i mean, it's been, you know, trump in terms of accessibility, he was way more accessible.

he always talked to reporters. he was going out to marine one on the white house, south lawn. and they're very guarded with president now that he went about a two week stretch recently where he didn't engage in any questions, the press and it was you can imagine it was when the hunter biden stuff has resurfaced with the tapping with the of a special counsel but than that his plea deal that fell apart and so that wasn't an issue that he wanted to talk about and also i don't they're still trying to figure out. i think, how to touch the indictments of trump if he is nominee. you know, on the one hand, you can stay quiet about it and kind of those stories, you know, you know, tell themselves in terms of of framing who trump is and if the president, you know, were to talk it they're going to republicans would those saying hey you see it is a this is them weaponizing the judiciary you know but at the same time this is going to be such a dominating in to what jonathan of the own unknowns that we have.

you know, this is tops among them that we don't know what going to be dealing with in terms of what court cases are going to be. look, you know the trial dates, you know what the sentencing could be. so, you know, that's going to be something that the biden folks are going to have to figure out how to kind of on. there's there's three issues that biden has not figured out how to deal with or that his staff does not want to come to terms with. one is the investigation into hunter biden. the other is biden's age and how to address that. and if we're being totally honest, you know, the third is his department of justice prosecuting the former president. they haven't figured how to address those issues because they're difficult issues to address and because is a how shall i put this biden is a risky. risky asset when it comes to public performance. we have a line in our book.

it's a delicate way of putting it in your in our book, c-span. audience. david axelrod, the former obama adviser, said this and you have to imagine it in a great deadpan voice that i can't fully do, he said. the biden staff has performance anxiety. biden performs and they get anxious. well, i mean you also pretty good line because every time biden goes out there they know what he's going to say necessarily. he's at a fundraiser a couple of months ago and he calls the ecology ad the next day there it of the speculation among a lot of our allies around the world that what's what's what's biden up to here? you deal with this. this is not a new shift in the american policy. beijing no, it's joe biden. they joe bidse but if you're b's

proposition it comes to all three of those topics and i don't think they fully come to terms with how to address that. well, when you chronicle the 2020 race, of course it was during covid and so much of that campaign for him really took place. the basement. yeah. the gift for biden 2020 and kamala harris was they are both unsteady public performers, especially when speaking off the cuff and for the duration of the general election in 2020, they had a ready made reason to not do a rope cabal. and so it's obviously a different story now. but as the city president, it's remarkable how little he does in terms of sit down interviews and full dress press conferences. he just doesn't give. i think there's still only been one sit down interview with the with a print publication that

was associated press. he's not done one since then and that's you know there, has been you know, occasional tv appearances. his most recent tv interview is with the weather channel of, all outlets. so you know, they've been picking and choosing and they've you know, they don't think that, as jonathan alluded to, he can have limited those opportunities. and you write about kind of the troubled first two years of the biden administration. so many people felt that he sort of failed, make things normal again. you write about even a conversation that you had with jen psaki that the white house press secretary, about whether he even run again. yeah. so the premise of this book basically is to look at the first two years in a post trump may maybe pre-trump again, this interregnum, there was this talk in washington that could go back to normal. we had these four years where like every day had to look at twitter and like wonder if we were going to go have nuclear war with north korea. and finally, things could be normal again. but having covered washington as

long as i had, i could look around and say like, this is not normal here. like this is not there's no way to just go back to normal. i don't know if biden failed and in trying to make things normal or not, i just think that is not a reality. and so i spent time trying to like figure out what the new normal was like, how things, how things worked. and i found like kind of a city that was very broken. people were still trying to figure out like what strategies made sense were making big bets, literally, but also kind of figuratively on where things were. and trump's influence was just kind of everywhere. and so, you know, it's it's not a city that reflects him still in a lot of ways. well and you mentioned sort of the biden bridge. there was there's discussions recently you reported on in your column about kind of conversations that are still happening about whether s. i mean, the the great the great reveal about modern politics is that a lot of senior officials,

both parties are living are living a very different version of their lives in public versus private. i'm not being salacious there. what i'm saying is that in public, democrats salute joe biden and say, of course, they're supporting his reelection. he's our incumbent president. he's done a great job. four more years in public. a lot of republicans say, oh, i'm going to let voters decide about election and i'm not going to weigh in about the former me tell something. a lot of democrats are on pins, needles about the possibility of nominating again because of his age because of his his unpopularity. and they're uneasy about those democrats are equally uneasy about answering the next question that comes up if they say in public that they don't want joe biden, which is, oh, so do you want president harris to be the nominee? so the democrats don't want tos, well, i'm for incumbent.

next question. it's an easy way to escape the question. and for in private, a lot of but that was even the indictments because thhe election be risk winning and having trump perform for years. so speaking of bets, so it is this remarkable moment and both parties says things moment, strikingly different in private versus public. yes, politicians have always been politicians, but i do think that right where you are in a notably cynical moment. well, you mentioned the jen psaki conversation in the white house and what she said to me at the time, and she was the press secretary, the time was she was

talking about a dinner that she had with her brother in law who had worked for obama and they were talking about biden and whether he'd run again. and she said that she didn't have any reason to believe he wouldn't. and she didn't have any reason to believe to not want him to. but have is there a plan? does anyone have a plan in the democratic in case he doesn't run? is there a secret meeting happening in a basement somewhere where democrats are making a plan? and the brother in law's response was, should we having a meeting like that? h, which is a great reveal about american politics. any time you have a question, should always assume american politics is more like veep like the west wing. but when asked as for why that bridge, you know, never ended up materializing biden i mean, i do think inside he believes he is the only one who can beat president trump and former president trump and so on. that, you know, that's a big thing he carries around. he also sees the the unrest with the party or the lack of a bench, whatever you want to call it. and know. i think he didn't envision, you know, no, you know,

shortage of issues that could come up in the age and with with age issues over next 15 months he saw yet a trip on diploma hand out of air force two a couple months ago. and so you know it's it's something they to confront. he has been doing it lately with jokes, saying, hey, i've been here 600 years, that kind of thing. and you know that's that's a sort of literally going up the elephant right. he's been calling it out. we'll see if that. but it's obviously, you know big question for for as long as trump a threat to the democrat and is still the likely republican nomineeinsulation hie there's almost sort of this cardinal rule that thou shall not weaken. and president biden, while trump is still the likely republican nominee, there is all these democratic and senators who are super ambitious, who would love to be presidents to mention two names.

they're not going challenge biden as long as trump is in the because the backlash of you're weakening our incumbent running against him in a poll that has helping how dare you that has impact for their political careers down the line in a 2020 congressman named dean phillips minnesota. who who i reported a york and thinking about is he's trying to play the role of gene mccarthy in 1968 and sort of break the ice. somebody else can get in the race and challenge biden. he's now going on sunday shows the last couple of weeks and basically urged democrats challenge. and the response is crickets. nothing because to betsy's point, the gretchen whitmer is gavin. hello governor the j.b. pritzker

is the phil murphy's all the senators. they don't want to imperil their future by by challenging joe biden now and inviting in the kind of backlash that they want to keep their tomorrow. a great bill clinton line their viability in the system. well you mentioned vice president harris. you write a lot about her selection. the book behind the scenes. if he had more confidence her as a successor, would that have made more apt to kind of exit stage point or part of biden's self for running president again and serving his mid-eighties is that hey, who else is to beat donald trump? who else has the experience on the world stage that i do. i'm obviously our strongest killer. he actually believes that you're right. think part of the reason why he's convinced himself of that is because he didn't groom a ound doubt among democrats she could step in and win in general

election next year. so that absolutely plays it and a lot of that, you know, in the book, you're talking you talk about her selection as really being a short term pick for him to help in the short term to win that election, but not as much thought given to a possible successor in the spring summer of 2020. joe and his inner circle were not dwelling on, well, if do pick senator kamala harris in the fall of 2023 and we're thinking about running for reelection, i'm going to be turning 81 years old. there could be doubts about my age and viability for five more years at that point. so ticket? beat trump. that was the entire thought process was we got to beat trump for understandable reasons. this is covid. i mean, i it but that that was in the assessment and we report in the book there are a lot of folks in california especially the told told the then vp biden look you don't don't pick kamala

harris that pushback against her so much so that biden told eric garcetti, his now ambassador to india then the mayor of l.a. he said eric, what doesn't the folks in california not like kamala harris because he was there was so much pushback. so he knew. joe, let me ask you because we ng tough, but recently i mean, he's engaged in high level diplomacy. the economy seems to be getting, but his numbers are still all underwater. if you think people are just still baked in to their perception of him vely, the firt two years of the biden administration, you know, you could put it on par with. you know, lyndon johnson's great society in terms of major, you know, government programs. he's, you know, fulfills kind of a progressive agenda. and, you know, with the the and most recently with the inflation reduction, which is the which has the historic climate investments and you say you

mentioned some the economic improvements we've seen in terms of a robust, you know, jobs market right now, unemployment that is at the lowest in 50 years. but the president isn't getting any credit for economic turnaround. and that's a major frustration right now for the administration. they've totally tto the future y with the biden nomics. messaging. right. they've they've adopted and really you he's he'reinvigoratic manufacturing of lot of those things really you know, they're they're big endeavors right now that you're not going to see the fruition for another years. and so it almost doesn't match with how people are feeling right now. the president, the other day,

you know, at a fundraiser where again, he kind of went off script. he said, you know, it really i wish i hadn't been called the inflation reduction act because. that's not what it really is. in fact. right. and so you look at polling, not getting credit for the washington post had a poll the other day, people aren't noticing the things he's doing on climate. you know, they can't name his legislative accomplishments. much of that is because, you know people have kind of hardened views, but also it's so hard to get out a policy agenda through this modern, you know, media landscape we have right now. ben, you talk about in your book sort this class of that came in with biden that had these big hopes and dreams. yeah. i mean, i feel like one of the reasons why his numbers are hard to move is because he got half the country is going to feel one way no matter what. and then of always battling with itself, you know, it was very easy for people on the left in washington a way they wouldn't have wanted trump around. they didn't want him around. but in a way, it was easy because they could just be. we are people against this guy. you could raise a ton of money.

you could have your coalition be built, you know, as a as being an opposition. but once they came to power, it was difficult. now you have to do things down the road and people have different visions for how things should go. and a lot of people in the book really thought about this i report on a where like two congressmen almost come to blows the house floor because they havegs should go on some of biden's legislation and now you're having you know people the country not liking biden from the left or even from the center left. it's going to be really hard to get, you know, your numbers to go up when the country hates you no matter what. and the other half is trying to figure out what the best way to move forward is. and it really like a dramatic scene. the book is mostly people experiencing lots of drama like in their lives, in their work and. some of that drama comes from politics. it comes from trying to get things done. some of it is exacerbated by that. it's relationships with friends and coworker and people losing jobs, you know, having projects end. and the sometimes that's the

hardest when you actually have the pressure to get things done. there's still such a wrong track, you know, feeling among the among americans of the future of the country. you know, a lot of that's coming out of this this pandemic you know, this real contentious area. politically. and so, you know, i think it's hard for people to respond to these questions say, oh yeah, the economy is really good, white house to be worried about with all of a sudden, you know, gas prices. it's the no longer, you know, declined. they're back the rise now you know, everything we've been talking about here, well, this must mean know biden must be in real trouble, right? for for november 2020 for. well not you know, look at the midterm election just, you know, a year and everyone was expecting democrats to, you know, be in big trouble because of the historic inflation. well, the democrats successfully made about something more and they made it about trumpism. they made it about abortion. and so those are going to be themes that are still out there

for 24 that that, you know that that biden can overcome you know, a low approval rating. i don't think i don't know if his approval rating is ever going to, you know, improve. i think people have pretty so yeah, it's over like you know he was never the top choice of even, you know, a democrat. so he became a logical choicetho beat trump. and so, i mean, i don't think you're ever going to see a 50% biden approval rating. no. i mean, he he is he is president, not trump. yeah. because what he is and i think that difficult at some level for any but especially for joe biden, who was elected to the u.s. senate, 29 years old, 29 years old. in 1972, he served with senators who a lot of folks in this room know, you know, he served with senator eastland. i right.

so he really goes back. and i think he obviously ran twice before he finally won. gets force one, he gets camp david. you know, yesterday he's standing there, the leaders of japan and south korea, historic, historic rivals. and he's them together to confront china in the pacific. that is no small thing, having those two countries stand together like that. friendship at camp david and. i think biden has a chip on his shoulder in part because he doesn't get credit for those kinds of steps because the only story in american life and some ways the only story in global politics is one thing trump and it's his fate to be president, not trump. he still gets to be president and he still, i think, to your point, is probably still the frontrunner next year if it's facing trump. but, you know, make no mistake, that is only question in europe

this summer, talking to folks in european capitals. there's only one question i have for you and that is trump coming back. that's all we want to know. and so i think that plays to biden's benefit. yeah. because he can he's the alternative. well and yet, you know, when we think about the republic ends and this piece that you about the republican party into what the foreign policy looks like in that direction talk about the party and where it goes with trump back in office and what that means for other the other wing of the party. yeah. i don't think we fully appreciate the divide in the republican party between the pre-trump and the post-trump that you just mentioned. i wrote a long piece about mitch mcconnell who is really the leader still in office, the pre-trump party, and he's sort of the bulwark of the pre-trump party, especially when it comes

to national security, a reaganite. he believes in projecting american force abroad. i did a long piece about, you know, his effort to keep the party on that reaganite course, especially when it comes to defend campaign. the senate obviously is a different animal. there's still a lot of folks there who are pre-trump, pretty dumb creatures. but the house really where the party is going increasingly reflects the sort of trumpist party and it's going to be tough to get morei think that's a stan for a larger, which is how trump has transformed this party and. if you take a step back and think about it, the the difference between these two wings is profound and it's pretty clear who has the upper hand. now, as we go on 2024. but boy, it leaves so many people homeless in this country who are traditional kind of pre-trump. they're not democrats but they're not comfortable with. a kind of crude demagoguery and, isolationist, foreign policy.

i kind of know a nationalism on trade and and domestic policy. i just don't know where that leaves a lot of people in the party and if you step back and time who are about to go an decade without, having voted for their party's nominee for president. think about that for a minute. people next year, if trump is the nominee, we'll have gone a decade without voting for their own party's nominee because they just can't accept trumpism. but that's what the party has increasingly becoming. and even if you take trump out it, we'll see on the debate stage wednesday. but the two trump alternatives right now, swarming, are going o have a view of ukraine that's a lot closer to donald trump and much more. we're going to take some questions in just a few minutes.

so if you do have a question, you start to line up behind the mic in the middle of the room. but let me ask then tim scott featured also in your book as a you wrote a lot about his chief of staff but also talk to him. what are your is sort of the opp sunny sunny side up in many ways polite candidate. he's trying to say that he is like theent that seeing in politics and in a way, he's sticking with that. you know talk he uses the word hope a lot and he uses the word optimism lot. and he is friendly and charming. people like him in iowa liked him. not everybody said they were going to vote him. a lot of people said, oh, wish we lived in a time where we could have a nice like him. but what we need like a smash mouth fighter, a fighter who is going to, you know, take on our other thing that's happening, i noticed when spending with tim scott just last week is even though he's using the hope and optimism and smiling and being, he's also

saying a lot of the same things that you hear. i mean, he starts every speech with we have to close the southern border. we have to lock up violent criminals. so even the hopeful, optimistic guy does have kind of a dark view. the country right now. and so part of me is like he's not doing as well as trump, obviously. and sort of trying to straddle the line. so it really is a hard time to be somebody who is not donald trump in the republican party. joey, do you think he has lane in this race? well, it's going to be hard to find that lane. i do. any lane that emerges is going to have to come from a rural state state by state, beginning with i was going to have to be somebody who can go maybe it could be tim scott. you know, i think that's what mike, who's going to be speaking here later too is banking on that his evangelical connections can emerge him as a victor there. otherwise, you know, if trump wins that state, thenationalized then you know you know trump is just going to you know roll away with this thing of course desantis was supposed to be the

but had his own, you know, problems i see that republican donors are now still talking about glenn youngkin maybe getting in the race or maybe even brian kemp, governor of georgia. but the fact that it is how to party. yeah, exactly. that's two parties right there. and so, you know, it's going to be really hard. but i do think you know, if there is a path for, another republican to beat trump, it's going to have to be hey, you know, this person finished second or so in iowa, then wins new. and that's going to have to just be, you know, you know really at the granular you know, lower level level you're not going to see i don't think trump you lose this commanding you know primary lead anytime soon do i mentioned glenn youngkin jonathan popular governor of virginia. people still keep talking about him as potential to get in. he's obviously has the virginia legislative elections coming up this november. so he can't really do anything until then. is it too late?

he get in the donor is keep hope alive at the bar. an old political slogan maybe just maybe our our hero will ride in on a horse and is based on a horse wearing his beliefs and save the day. yeah, exactly. and save us from the grips. trumpism. one, one smile and a venture capital investment at a time. look, i think it's unlikely. i wouldn't say it's impossible. i mean, i would never say something is totally if he gets in a mid-november or there are a couple deadlines that have already passed by that point to be on the ballot in some of these in some of primary states. so just the calendar makes, it, i think, pretty darn tough. well, i think we are going to turn to some questions. we have someone up here if you want to introduce yourself and ask your question. sure. my name is tom cassidy. i'm from arlington, review you u jonathan for a better moderator, though, than jeff goldberg.

i want my money. great. but jonathan. but ben, my question is to you and maybe you could provide some context for it, but i need the odds. what are the odds of? the speaker surviving a motion to vacate the't want to it. jonathan probably has a better chance of answering this question than i do, but in my mind he's shown himself able survive a lot right now i feel like you know people keep assuming that the speaker of the house is going to lose his job. it is a precarious job, has lots of people at least have them under theirher alternativet

feel like he can if he survived this long,t i wouldn't put any of my money or any of the college money i have for my children on on that survival. well, you also talk about in your book and through the lens of frank once. yeah. in your book who of course yeah. with the speaker right. yeah. so so frank luntz is sort of best friends. speaker mccarthy but also told me that he hated donald trump so much that donald trump nearly killed him. he had a stroke that he was a result of his hatred for trump. stress levels went through the roof and i tried to spend time with to understand how you can both, you know, be best friends with kevin mccarthy when trump also refers to him as my kevin like how can be my kevin and frank kevin like that seems like i impossible but it is sort of the story washington which is that people and how do justify it what he justified by kevin

mccarthy is one of the best people i've ever met and i think he really it is is he wants to become a creature of washington it's very hard to break free of that frank made a i went and spent time at his house is which are you know enormous and decorated with just you know political ephemera from from from over the years. and he is just, you know, his dna is part of washington. and so while trump almost killed them, washington also sort of keeps alive. he told me that that kevin mccarthy, who stayed with him for a while, was a little bit of a scandal. he always in his of condo, house, condo he knocked down for condos to make one giant condo. and he told me that kevin sometimes will inject him with his medicine because. he's too afraid of needles. washington of keeping him

alive. it's a very. yeah, yeah, yeah. well, kevin mccarthy also prominently. yes. and here also kevin mccarthy's voice featured prominently in an audiotape you all may remember from last year. you know, we which tells you everything about kev mccarthy ds to do toy in football, he has a bend, but don't break defense. and boy, does he bend the lot. kevin, in the days before trump's impeachment was, talking about going to trump and, urging him to resign to avoid impeachment is in the aftermath of january six. how do know that? i have the audiotape of kevin telling his fellow lawmakers a private conference call just that. and it's it's in the book as bad as mccarthy didn't when he denied publicly that, he said that and mccarthy denied saying it. we played audiotape and obviously that was that kevin mccarthy survives in part because he will do whatever it takes to placate the sort of far

right faction of the party that he needs to placate to survive. and also this real fast a bit the bends point he survives because there's obvious alternative route to step up and the speakership right now because see what he has to go through and say i don't want do that either. you know, so i think that him going but to go back to the ukraine i mean this is going to be a real test. kevin mc he get a ukraine packae through the house this year? yes. the vote bill garland did with all kinds of other goodies. but that's gochallenge to speak? yes, ma'am. my name is annette vise. i live in the greater jackson area. my question is for jonathan. i wanted to what extent do you think that trump is the lightning rod for, the anxiety that we as a culture feel with everything speeding up the internet, all of that, it's basically less about the man and more about the changing that is faster and faster and. that is very alienating and disorienting for many people.

yeah, i've always thought trump is more a symptom than than a cause and that trump is. yeah. i mean. countries often times turn to demagogic politicians for answers, not because they're necessarily persuade by the wisdom of the demagogue, but because something that they're saying resonates at a more profound level. and i we had a hard time grappling that in this country because it wasn't supposed to happen here right right. a riot in, the seat of a government with like cops being assaulted because the elected leader won't leave office after a close election. oh, yeah, that happens all the time. you know, fill in the blank still this day have a hard time grappling with happened and what is happening this country because it's not supposed to happen here and there has been something of a failure of imagination about trump ism. but yeah, i think the root of it does owe to the fact that there

is obviously profound polarization right now that is happening at the same time of obviously the demographic changes in the country and they're there because of that. there is i'm an audience for what he is offering. i'd also say that that there's also an immense backlash to what he's offering with a lot of the country doesn't want it and that we shouldn't sit here and like he's got some massive movement behind him. but the fact is he's a minority leader. he's not one majority of the country he narrowly won in 2016 an electrical edge victory in part because he ran against a very weak opponent who ran a bad campaign all right ever since that election, democrats have feasted on donald trump. they've been the can go back toe present, and i can name chapter and verse elections. he's been the gift that keeps on giving for democrats, which is why some in this room won't say

it out loud. but they're desperate for him to leave the stage becauseeir bestr turnout, for fundraising, for for organization, for so it's a fascinating moment in which, yes, he's got a real support system behind him, but it's a minority of the and a majority of the country detested it. and democrats benefit from that. yes, sir. my name is jim rosenblatt from the mississippi college school of law here. jackson, in recent years, we have seen the impact of judicial nominations. do you think the question of judicial is going to be a spoken or an unspoken issue in the coming nationallet's ta issue. you know, the biden administration has, you know,

gotten through a historic number, judicial nominees. and i know that's something that they're you know, they like to tout. i'm not sure and maybe youh in,, whether or not, that's going to be, you know at the center of the election.ald trump is because a lot of people in the republican party have said time and again, i don't love the guy. i don't love his attitude, i don't even believe all the things he believes. but man, has he been good at permanent change in this country, like judges? you know, he is it's like having a, you be, you know, a major focus of democrats. i mean, donald trump, you know, he the three supreme court justices got to the court that, roe wade. and, you know, there were i think there was a quote that the trump made the other day. and ithat legacy. well that's that's fine for the biden campaign he wants to do

that that's going to be in commercials. you bet. you know, next year. and so that is going to be a major focus that this this guy and the very important you know that the president makes and these lifetime appointments of supreme court justice they're going to remind voters of that because it resonates so well among suburban swing districts that are going to really decide this this election in six states. and so that will be, you know, a major focus, i would expect the court was always an issue that that the republicans could use their benefit. and one of the biggest changes since the dodd decision is that that has flipped and it's now i think much more of an asset for democrats.