right now on "early start,"

a brand new poll releasing right about now reveals what voters now think of joe biden and america's economy. plus the trump organization's former financial base is in talks to potentially plead guilty again this time to perjury. and -- >> i've told this to anybody who will hear it. i am not going anywhere. >> nikki haley is holding out even with calls for her to quit the race. but for how long. what's going on, welcome to our viewers in the united states and around the world. i'm omar jimenez in for kasie hunt. it is friday, february 2, 5:00 a.m. on the east coast. coming up, a new cnn poll, numbers just in, they show america's deep pessimism about the economy might be easing up even if only a little. 26% say the economy is starting

to recover versus 48% say it is still in a downturn. which doesn't sound great until you compare it to the poll last summer when only 20% said the economy is recovering. like practically everything else now, views of the economy are sharply split along part is an l -- partisan lines. up only one point among republicans. let's bring in our politics breaking news reporter for the "washington post." great to see you. thanks for being up with us. so 58% say they are worse off. i assume we're all living in the same country. so how do you see this marginal improvement and sentiment playing out in the presidential race given this partisan divide h here. >> it depends on all the messages people are seeing from their party. the biden campaign starting to

slowly get out their message that he has been getting the economy back on its feet since covid and we're seeing the news last week that the economy grew by 3.1% and i think democrats are a little more aware of that when you see the flip side on the republican side, you get all these candidates have been going on the campaign the last few months saying that the economy is not great, that things are not going good anymore, but then it is not based on the facts that we're seeing. but i do know on the democratic side i think the biden campaign will start rolling out -- democrats are encouraging the biden campaign to start rolling out a message that highlights that so that maybe get the middle voters or never trump voters who might not be aware of that. >> and i think you hit on the most difficult part, trying to get through sort of whatever you consume based on whatever you like or agree with. i want to look at biden's approval in some of the key areas, some of the contentious areas. most democrats see him as a

protector of democracy. hardly any republicans do. and there is a sharp devid over how he is handling the war in ukraine versus the israel war in hamas and even more so among dwm democrats. how does he break through when it seems like what you make of it is in the eye of the beholder? >> i think specifically it comes down to the voter age split. and i think that is an issue that democrats will have to be dealing with the rest of the year. getting the younger voters who might be very disappointed in how the president has handled international crisis and all of these other issues that are on the more progressive side of the party. i think democrats are trying to get the president to sharpen his focus on but also remind voters that it is either -- come november it is a choice between him and donald trump and if you want to continue seeing what biden has done in order to continue patching up the economy

and getting the country back on its feet or do you want to see donald trump who a lot of the young voters have been living the repercussions of. i think the democrats say campaign is still young but they need to get the campaign to sharpen their message. >> and one of the things trump has been campaigning on is the southern border and immigration policy. obviously something that the biden administration and previous administrations have struggled with, but more relevantly now the biden administration. and some of this polling, his lowest approval rating is on immigration at 30% overall. but look at the huge gap between parties on this. 65% of democrats approve of biden's handling of the issue while only 4% of republicans do. more than twice as many americans favor mass deportations now than they did during the trump administration. so just given this day take here

and what we've seen out on the campaign trail and through messaging and otherwise, where does this problem leave the biden campaign again as we get dealership into 2024? >> as we've heard from the gop side, they are making it a big issue this time around. and the thing is, we've heard a lot about this potential bipartisan deal being worked in congress, a lot of senate republicans have been really trying to work across the aisle and connect with democrats over this. if that deal is delivered, i think democrats are already planning on how they can spin that saying we're trying to do something about the border, and it depends on the republicans if they pass it. because we've seen the house saying they won't pick it up. so i think that will be the next messaging battle. if they get that done, they can take it on the trail. but if they don't get it done, they can say republicans blocked it but at least we tried.

we've heard donald trump tell a lot of republicans don't pass that. >> and we have seen that very much play out, politics affecting real time policy. and i think that we'll see more of it in 2024. thank you so much. former trump organization cfo allen weisselberg is in talks with the manhattan d.a.'s. they relate to testimony weisselberg gave in an interview with the new york attorney general's office and at trump's civil fraud trial. in 2022, weisselberg pleaded guilty to 15 criminal charges and served 100 days in jail. still ahead for us, president biden heads to delaware as the remains of three fallen u.s. troops return to american soil. and how does nikki haley

fair against trump and biden.

president biden first lady and defense secretary lloyd austin head to delaware this morning to join the grieving families of three u.s. soldiers killed in jordan. their remains will be transferred back to dover air force base. thursday the pentagon chief confirmed that multitiered response is coming as he warned of escalating tensions in the region. >> this was a dangerous moment in the middle east. we'll continue to work to avoid a wider conflict in the region. but we will take all necessary actions to defend the united states, our interests and our people. >> paula hancocks is joining us.

so when austin says multitiered response, what does mean and do we know when it might come? >> reporter: well, it would suggest that they already know exactly what they want to hit and there are a number of targets potentially this multitiered response. and also potentially that it could happen over multiple days. we heard from secretary us a ten saying it was necessary to make sure that some of the groups had less capability than they had before. u.s. military has already been going after some of the groups that have carried out more than 160 drone missile rocket attacks against u.s. troops and coalition troops since october. so it has been and on going process. but clearly what happened last weekend has resonated and made the situation more dire and more

urgent. we don't know about the timing. we have heard the biden administration telegraphing that this will happen, but obviously they are not going to give exact details. in fabts we've been expecting it for days now and it has encouraged at least one iran backed militia in iraq, kataib hezbollah, to actually stop its attacks and say that it was not going to carry out attacks against u.s. interests in iraq and syria going forward. so it does appear to have had some kind of deterrent impact already but we're waiting to see exactly what the response will be. now, we've heard from a number of analysts, also u.s. officials that it is unlikely to be an attack on iranian soil itself, that would be a significant rise in escalation of tensions. washington says they don't want this to be a wider war in the middle east. and from what we've seen so far,

it would appear tehran is of the same mind. >> of course that would be a major escalation but a response nonetheless has been anticipated for days now. we'll see. thank you so much. military shakeup is imminent in ukraine. sources telling cnn president zelenskyy met with his top military commander earlier this week and told him he was being fired. more now from brian todd. >> reporter: ukraine's charismatic president apparently engages in palace intrigue. two sources familiar with the matter tell cnn volodymyr zelenskyy is pushing out his popular army chief after he was scheduled to a meeting at the president's office on monday. zelenskyy's spokesman denies that he is being fired, but sources say a presidential decree could come within days. it would be the biggest military shakeup by zelenskyy since the full-scale invasion almost two years ago. analysts say it could be a

political move. >> the possibility that he could be a presidential candidate sometime in the future and he is the only person in ukraine right now that potentially rivals zelenskyy in public trust ratings. >> reporter: why is the 50-year-old so popular? >> he was military leader when ukraine rebuffed russia's all-out invasion of ukraine back in february of 2022. he was able not only to save kyiv and mobilize the national defense, but also to push back on a lot of russian military advances. >> reporter: aside from the politics, experts also say zelenskyy could be simply holding him accountable for the fact that the counteroffensive has not gone as well as many had hoped. >> this is a way for zelenskyy not to take the blame for the lack of progress in the war over the last year. >> reporter: and he described the war as a stalemate in a november essay in the economist magazine which was said to have displeased zelenskyy and his circle. in a new opinion piece for cnn,

he wrote ukraine has to adapt to getting less military aid and rely more on technology in the war. who could replace him as army chief? two candidates are mentioned, the land forces commander and also the young ambitious head of the defense intelligence directorate who spoke to fred pleitgen. >> translator: i believe the plan includes all major critical infrastructure facilities and military infrastructure facilities of the russian federation. >> reporter: according to the "post," his plans made u.s. officials nervous. ukrainian officials say russians have tried to assassinate him at least ten times and wife and bodyguard became ill from what ukrainian officials said was a poisoning. >> i think russians see him as a capable military leader, as a threat, and they have tried to take him out.

>> reporter: one of the biggest most immediate concerns for the next army chief, analysts we spoke to say he will have to make crucial decisions regarding the upcoming springtime phase of the war. he will have to inspire confidence among the ukrainian people and he will have to not be seen as a political plant of volodymyr zelenskyy's. brian todd, cnn, washington. coming up, the mother of michigan's school shooter ethan crumbley about to face cross-examination from prosecutors. what she's been saying about the day her son killed four of his classmates. that is next.

quick hits across america

now. prosecutors are set to begin cross-examination of jennifer crumbl crumbley, mother of ethan crumbley. the state is accusing both parents of ignoring their son's warning signs and making a gun accessible to him. house ethics committee has reached out to matt gaetz ex-girlfriend in an investigation that accuses the florida republican of having sex with a minor. gaetz says the probe is payback for his efforts to oust the former speaker kevin mccarthy. ♪ john if i don't know if thed blood, but universal music group has pulled some artists over dispute over royalties. citing copyright violations. and we are also talking about weather because that is

very important too. the west coast is bracing for a second storm this weekend after an atmospheric river brought record breaking rains and widespread flooding engulfing cars in some parts of california thursday. many drivers needed rescues as their communities were deluged. it is also february 2, which means all eyes on are on the famous groundhog punxsutawney phil. will he see hig his shadow and forecast six more weeks of winter? you know what, i don't know, but i feel like i trust your forecast more, allison chinchar. because he doesn't always have the best record. >> he doesn't. i'll tell you if you are a betting person, not usually, but statistically speaking phil way more often does see his shadow than he doesn't. over 100 times since they first started doing this, he has seen his shadow. only 20 times where he has not

seen his shadow. so he tends to like winter a little bit more. but yes accuracy-wise, he is only on right 40% of the time. so not exactly great at his job. but the good news is even regardless of what he picks today, if you don't like this, there are a whole bunch of other groundhogs that may have a different prediction that you could like better than phil's. as for the rest of the country, yes, we have the potential for severe storms across areas of the south and california bracing for the next atmospheric river that is expected to come in this weekend. you already still have several areas of showers not just for california but a lot of the moisture spreading into arizona, new mexico and other states as well. this next storm, big concerns are additional flooding on top of what we've already had, mud and debris flows and again the main concern with the flooding is how saturated the ground already is. because you have to understand how much rain has already fallen. look at several of these areas that have picked up a 5 and even

6 inches of rain in the last 24 to 48 hours. los angeles specifically picking up just under 2.5 inches of rain. that is almost the entire month of february's worth of rain in just a single day. so again the ground is saturated and now we'll be adding more moisture on top of it, that could end up leading to some flooding. hire up higher up in elevation, significant snowfall. some areas will be measured in feet. and also some high surf advisories along the coast as well. >> i'd like to see punxsutawney phil talk about high surf advisories. allison, thank you so much. meanwhile a new cnn poll released this hour shows americans are feeling a bit better about the economy. so what could that mean for president biden and the 2024 race? plus elon musk is making a big push to ditch delaware and incorporate tesla in texas. we'll tell you why.

thanks for getting up early with us. i'm omar jimenez. it actually is groundhog day but i promise you're not stuck in a loop, i don't think. a discussion for another time. we'll focus now on president biden who is focusing on the key battle ground state of michigan where he basked in the glow of his recent endorsement from the united auto workers thursday thanking the union for their support and telling them they are responsible for the country's economic success. >> we now have in large part because of you and organized labor the strongest economy in the whole damn world. we do.

>> and the president's economic message is reinforced a bit by a new poll showing that americans are starting to feel a bit better about the economy. though it should be noted 55% of americans still say the president's policies have worsened the country's economic conditions. let's talk about that with "washington post" white house reporter tyler pager and northwestern alum, go cats. so let's first though talk about biden's visit to michigan yesterday. in your latest reporting, as i unz you were traveling with the president, you talk about how his campaign took extra steps to make his visits a little more secretive than usual. tell us more. >> good morning, omar. and of course go cats. i was traveling with the president yesterday on air force one to michigan and the focus was the union support celebrating the recent endorsement from united auto

workers. but obviously the big story in michigan for the democratic party is the outrage from the very large and significant arab-american and muslim communities over the u.s. continued support for israel in its military campaign in gaza. the president avoided any contact with leaders or members of that community yesterday. when we were there, we saw some protestors, but the motorcade that i was in with the president also took some side streets when we were arriving at the uniontown hall to sort of avoid the large protest gathering a few blocks away. not unusual for protestors to demonstrate in front of a president's visit, but it was note who arworthy how the white tried to keep the exact locations of where the president would be more secretive than usual. i think the hope was that he was able to connect with voters,

black voters at a black owned restaurant outside detroit and then again in the uniontown hall. but the lack of engagement with the arab community can be problematic as he needs their support to win the very competitive state of michigan. >> the mayor of dearborn, michigan which is home to a major automotive home but also one of the largest arab-american communities in the midwest, he said biden missed an opportunity to engage with the community and that he thinks the president views them just as a voting bloc. take a listen. >> i absolutely he think that it is a missed opportunity. whenever constructive dialogue can happen to help save lives. because that is the conversation we want to have. i have a resident that came before a city council meeting who lost over 80 family members. and the question is while we send our condolences for your loved ones, we want to know how you will vote come november and

i think that is extremely dehumanizing. >> and we've heard recent policy announcements on that front, but does the administration seem willing to take some of these opinions into consideration when it comes to its foreign policy decisions? >> yeah, karine jean-pierre told us yesterday on air force one that senior members of the biden administration would be traveling to michigan this month to meet with residents to discuss this very issue. she declined to say who or win would be going to michigan. last week the biden campaign manager traveled to michigan to meet with community leaders as well, but a number refused to meet with her citing the biden administration continued refusal to call for a ceasefire in gaza. so the white house says senior administration officials will but how it plays with the community leaders, i think we'll

see there are certain who will say that they are not willing to meet with this administration until more policy changes. >> and we've seen this relationship at least with the arab-american community and biden sour in many respects of course since october 7. but in particular the past two or so months. i want to turn to a different issue, the economy. specifically part of our new cnn poll, americans at least said that they are starting to feel better about the economy, but not about him. and i'm curious based on what you've heard, does the campaign seem worried at all that the economic data if touted as good doesn't seem to translate over into support or enthusiasm for biden, at least not yet. >> i know the president himself is frustrated by that dynamic. i reported late last year that the president hauled in his senior advisors and sort of let

loose on them saying why am i not getting more correct for the economy complaining about his poll numbers. so this is a frustration for the president that he sees the economy growing and they say it is headed in the right direction, but his poll numbers do not appear to be moving in any significant way. i think the white house and biden campaign will be optimistic that this poll shows things trending in the right correc direction and they argue that they have a lot of time for the biden and his surrogates to travel around the country meeting with voters and trying to connect those two things, the positive economic growth and the president's policy, trying to get more credit for what they say he has done to improve the economic situation. >> and on the enthusiasm front, what is interesting, we saw this in another part of the poll, it did show that trump was narrowly ahead of biden. we're still very early on here.

just over the margin of error. but one interesting thing in this is that voters across the political spectrum say their decision is about trump. love him or hate him, more than about biden. so how do you see that driving events through the campaign? you had mentioned biden was frustrated with senior advisers. but are you getting the indication that moving forward they are keeping that dynamic central in the strategy of how they are planning events? >> absolutely. as we continue to get in to this campaign, we'll see they will more explicit about former president trump, the biden campaign says once it becomes a clear two person race between booifrn biden and trump and more americans are tuning in to the rematch, they will start to see their poll numbers change more and that biden will take over

the lead in those polls as americans grapple with the potential return of the former president. so they will see biden taking a more aggressive posture about trump. we started to see that particularly from his allies and surrogates, but i think that we'll continue to see it even more as the campaign gets in to a full general election rematch. >> a lot to watch for. tyler pager, thank you so much. president biden also issued an unprecedented executive order yesterday that allows the u.s. to impose new sanctions on israeli settlers involved in violence attacks against palestinians. the order specifically targets four individuals accused of directly perpetrating violence in the west bank. so journalist elliott gotkine is joining us from london. so who does this executive order sanction and what prompted this move by president biden? >> as you say it applies to four israeli settlers who live in the

israeli occupied west bank who were accused of initiating and leading a riot, setting buildings, fields and other things on fire, assaulting civilians and damaging property. and what it does effectively, it shuts them off from the american financial system. it will prevent them from doing business with americans, receiving funding from americans and imposes a travel ban. but given that they are not americans, it is unclear as to what the practical impact on them will be. and the biden administration has said although further sanctions on other settlers are to come, that it will not be targeting u.s. civilians, those that hold dual nationality. of these four individuals, some have already been charged and cases going through the judicial system, and that lends some weight to prime minister netanyahu's assertion that in his words they act against all israelis who break the law everywhere and so exceptional measures are unnecessary.

but the biden administration will point to the united nations office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs which has recorded something like 500 attacks by settlers against palestinian civilians since the hamas-led massacre of october 7. and it is saying quite simply that the israeli authorities are not doing enough to rein in the violence against palestinian civilians and it could spiral out of control. but as you have heard from the "washington post" reporter there, one other issue for the biden administration is that in this critical election year when president biden himself is in michigan, the idea is to perhaps try to recover some of the lost support from arab-americans who are very displeased with the biden administration support for israel in its war against hamas. >> yeah, an election year we usually see an intersection of politics an pd policy. elliott gotkine, thank you so much. on the campaign front, nikki

haley faces an uphill battle going into the south carolina primary. what she says victory will look like to her. next.

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nikki haley once again vowing to stay in the 2024 race. the former south carolina governor is telling reporters this about her strategy heading into the february 24th primary in her home state. >> you can tell us what victory looks like for you in south carolina? >> making sure it is a competitive race, making sure it looks close. if we do that, that will head us on into michigan and super tuesday. >> although she faces an uphill battle for the gop anonymous nation, new polling does show haley's lead over president biden in a head to head matchan does show haley's lead over president biden in a head to head match has doubled. so let's bring in sophia cai

from axios. good to see you. in some of your most recent reporting, you talk about how the hail mary strategy depends on open primaries like in michigan and some of what we saw in new hampshire. but south carolina is very different voting population than those states. what does she need to happen in these states? >> i mean, look, of course they have to show a path forward. and in some cases they have to look beyond south carolina which is a very conservative state. and crucially it is a winner take out state. so a keep it close strategy also means that if she loses and it is close, she doesn't get any delegates. so looking beyond that, we look at states like michigan, we look at 11 of the super tuesday states that her campaign has outlined, and i think in those states they are counting on democrats and independents being he will eligible to vote. and in two-thirds, primaries are

either open or semi open. and that that is the path forward that they are outlining even if it is very narrow, even if it is very complex. and even if it is unlikely. >> i was at a lot of her campaign events when she was in new hampshire and one of the things she kept bringing up was that majority of americans don't want a trump/biden rematch and also saying that she polled better against president biden than former president trump. and we're seeing glimpses of that here. something else that came out of this polling is that 42% of americans including 37% of republican voters polled say they don't know enough about haley to have an opinion on her. do you see that as some sort of shortcoming with her campaign strategy or really more of an opportunity? >> i mean, look, she is different from biden and trump. she has not been the president before, she's been u.n. ambassador. she has not been a household name. so i think that is why you see her pretty relentless on the

campaign trail. she talks about some of the same talking points. you mentioned appealing to the 70% of americans who don't want to see a biden and trump rematch. and being pretty consistent with the way that she toes the line with trump although she's been more aggressive in attacking him, calling biden and trump grumpy old men saying that they have both been spending too much and others. but she's still introducing herself to the american people and her campaign will tell you as much. >> and on one of your ladder points about going more directly about former president trump, late wednesday night new campaign filings were released showing trump's pac spent $50 million on legal expenses. haley quick to point that out yesterday on the campaign trail and during an interview with cnn. take a look. >> do you really think that he is going to win against joe biden when he is spending all of that money on legal fees?

he is not. >> it is unconscionable to me that candidate would spend $50 million in legal fees. it explains why he is not doing many rallies. he doesn't have the money do it. it explains why he had a temper tantrum election night of new hampshire, because he wants me out of the race and he wants to be the presumptive nominee so that all the cash starts going to him. >> so how do those answers fit into her broader campaign narrative and strategy? >> it fits in perfectly. she's saying trump brings too much chaos, he is distracted, he has too muching fo inggoing on president. and in some cases it is working. we know trump is very upset that nikki haley did not drop out after her loss in new hampshire and i think in his mind and for his team, every day that nikki haley doesn't drop out, that is more resources he will have to expend to campaign against her and we're hearing that he has

been in nevada, he will be back in south carolina, and those are you will a trips that he may not need to make, he can just focus on the why general election and fighting on the legal battles. so she is definitely getting under his skin. >> and it was a strategy that for so long folks like christy when he was in the race criticized nikki haley for for not going more directly against the former president. so we've seen that shift and definitely a lot more pointed attention. she's still framing the attacks, but definitely seenl a lot more at trump. got to leave it there. sophia cai, thank you so much. and we're also following a fiery plane crash in florida living several people dead. what police are saying the plane and where it came from -- or where it came down, ahead on "cnn this morning."

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get a free line of unlimited intro for 1 year when you buy one unlimited line. and for a limited time, get the new samsung galaxy s24 on us. tesla might be ditching delaware. what i mean, billionaire elon musk took a poll on x asking if tesla should move its registration to texas where it is already headquartered. it comes after a judge invalidated musk's $51 billion salary package saying that he failed to prove the compensation plan was fair. nearly 70% of fortune 500 companies are incorporated in delaware thanks to the state's business friendly legal frame work and tax policies. but musk says the more than 1 million people voted and 87%

voted for texas. so now he says that he will immediately seek shareholder approval to incorporate tesla in the lone star state. here in new york, the new york knicks are digging their way out of a late -- or dug their way out of a late 15 point hole to win their ninth straight game. andy scholes has the "bleacher report." >> knicks fans really starting to get excited and with good reason. jalen brunson continues to be one of the best players in the entire nba. he was named to his first all-star team last night and then went out and had another spectacular game. scoring 11 of his 40 points in the fourth quarter including this go-ahead bucket right here with less than two minutes to go. knicks would win for their ninth straight victory. brunson who grew up watching his dad play for the things getting emotional as the mmsg crowd chanted mvp at him. >> that was fun.

that was fun. >> the lakers meanwhile without both their all stars, lebron and da davis due to injury, but austin re reese said i got this. he made seven threes on his way to 32 points. they only lost two home games coming into this one, but lakers with the shocking upset 114-105 the final there. and that was the moment last night number one pick in the 2022 draft learned that he would be heading to his very first all-star game. fun moment with his teammates. tyrese maxey also first time all-star and he celebrated by

scoring career-high 51 to help philly beat the jazz 127-124. to the nfl, chargers introducing their new head coach jim harbaugh yesterday. after winning the national championship with michigan, the 60-year-old says the lure of a super bowl title brought him back to the nfl. >> it was time. i said this the other day, but only got so many sands left in the hour glass and i want another shot. i want another shot at to be simply known as world champion. lombardi trophy. that is my mission. >> and the commanders meanwhile hiring dan quinn as the team's next head coach. with that hire, all nfl head coaching vacancies have now been filled. bill belichick and mike vrabel shockingly will not have a head coaching job next season. and the pro bowl games kicked off last night. jason kelce wanted to show off

his long snapping accuracy by just aiming at the smallest target in the snapshots competition. he went for the 5 the entire time and managed to get one. >> you got to go big or go home. i don't know, man, 5 was just speaking to me. unfortunately, didn't answer too much when i called. >> only got one, but the nfc still won the competition. so mission accomplished there. he's just a winner. >> thanks andy scholes, really appreciate it. and we're also waiting on punxsutawney phil. he could see his shadow, maybe, maybe not. we'll see. that is all i've got. i'm oman jimenez. they are all definitely very cold. have a great weekend. "cnn this morning" starts right now.