>>. is the fifth time the charm? i doubt it.

i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. four legal threats to donald trump only helped him politically and number five will probably be the same. we been through the data so many times but it does bear repeating today. survey after survey show that donald trump's numbers have risen with each four indictments. first gop debate which he escaped changed nothing as to his hold on the party. look more deeply at the polls and you find the reason why. republicans largely share trump's opinion that the indictments are political. one recent example. the walls journal found trump is the first choice of 59% of republican primary voters. up 11% since april. his lead over the conspirator ron desantis is rising, desantis is 13% barely ahead of the rest of the field at this point. why is trump so strong despite being indicted four times? because republicans largely agree with his claims of

election fraud. same wall street journal story points out this. asked about the indictments of trump. more than 60% of republican primary voters said each what he politically motivated. and without merit. some 78% said trump's actions after 2020 election were legitimate efforts to insure an accurate vote. about half or 48% said the indictments made them more likely to vote for trump in 2024. and a new poll from cnn found that 71% of republicans say biden didn't legitimately win enough votes for presidency. these views held for quite time. may poll found 25% of americans blame trump's loss to biden on illegal voting. yet the same poll found 54% of republicans think the january 6 day was the work of violent legislative wing protesters trying to make trump look bad. in george the only state to

bring an election prosecution against trump where the former president is being charge charged with election interference, a majority of likely primary voters agree with him. from the atlanta constitution and university of georgia when asked do you believe there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election? 61% say yes. in the that seam poll. georgia likely republican primary voters were asked, if they think politics played a role to indict trump in that decision in peach state. 84% said yes, politics played a big role, two updates. an academic conversation has been building as oh whether donald trump has been bard from running under a constitutional clause that prohibits those engaged in an insurrection or rebellion against the constitution from hold, higher oh office. two law professors spent a year looking at the issue and oval office pining in a fourth coming up 26 law review article at the university of pennsylvania that

the preclusion does apply. you might remember that ned folly a constitutional circular at vo state university was here making that case. there's difference of opinion, among the impediments at the question of whether it would apply to a former president and the lack of judicial finding that trump has engaged in insurrection. among 91 counts trump faces none oh r are for insurrection or decision. he was impeached a second time for incitement of insurrection but acquitted by the senate. there are constitutional issues about denying ballot access and denies voters they're say. ultimately, such case might reach the supreme court. but guess who believes the 14th amendment should not be applied? brad raffensperger the georgia secretary of state, yes, the recipient of what trump calls a

perfect phone call as in this. so look. all i want to do is this. i just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have, because we won the state. >> that call was largely the predicate for the prosecution of trump in georgia. yet, writing for the "wall street journal" journal this, raffensperger argued the following mr. trump might win innovation and general election or he could lose. outcomes should be determine by the people who show up to make their preference known in primaries, including georgia's on march 12th and general election november 5th, a process denies voters their chance to be the deciding process in the nomination process. meanwhile, this week in colorado, a progressive group filed a lawsuit to bartram's from appearing on the primary ballot filed on behalf.

six republican and unaffiliated voters by a group called citizens for responsibility and ethics in washington. the colorado secretary of state responded. that she welcomed the guidance that the litigation would bring. in most states, the secretary of state is the chief election official. who can decide if a candidate is qualified to run for president in their state. now, colorado isn't the only state where there are active or potential steps to have trump barred from running for office. trump's lawyers responded yesterday requesting that a judge move the lawsuit to federal court because it cites a federal law, namely the 14 amendment four prosecutions underway that have been to trump political benefit at least in the short term now a new challenge looms which might have the seam impact. i want to know what you think. go to my website. smerconish.com this hour and vote on the question, will the lawsuit to bartram from the colorado ballot under the 14th amendment help or hurt him

politically? my next guest is the colorado secretary of state jenna griswold. who also chairs the democratic association of secretaries of state. sharp critics of trump effort to overturn the 2020 election. as i referenced brad raffensperger he has your job in georgia. he said it would be unamerican to remove trump this way from the ballot. do you agree with him? >> well, not necessarily. so i read brad's opt ed. the did not cite georgia law doesn't get not constitution. i think it's a good political take. but ultimately. if the constitution disqualifies the former president we have to uphold the constitution. i wouldn't say brad is right or wrong. i would say there are major constitutional questions and also questions of state law. and all of us have different state law that should be

considered by a court. >> you know that much of this conversation springs from a fourth coming law review journal at your alma ma ter, the university of pennsylvania law school. mine too. have you read it? do you agree? are you of the opinion that donald trump should be precluded because of the 14th amendment. >> i am of the opinion that this is a big constitutional question. section three of the 14th maintain clearly lays out if someone swears to uphold the constitution and later engages in insurrection or rebellion or aid or comfort the enemies of the constitution they cannot serve in office. that is has been applied when hundreds of former confederate soldiers and office holders were removed. so there are big questions. for example, does the amendment bar someone who would be disqualified under it from running for office or just being seated in office?

who gets to make that decision? there's also questions about how to consider such disqualification under state law. so i am a big proponent this needs to be decided by courts. that's exactly what is happening in the state of colorado. i hope this litigation gives guidance to myself. but also other secretaries of state across the nation. >> what if your called upon to exercise discretion? you've been very critical of the former president during your victory speech reversing him stealing the presidency, conspiracies and lies to in cite an insurrection, if it comes down to authority placed in your hand, can you be fair to him. >> absolutely. and i think being fair is considering the facts. you know, donald trump did insight an insurrection. he did try to steal the election from the american people. now. that does not mean that at this

point, a court would determine that that is disqualifying. in terms of what would i do with discretion? you know, we're not quite there. on top of the big state and constitutional questions, there's also a process there r that has to play out. he has the the not even submitted his paperwork yet. colorado republican party hasn't taken the steps they need. what i hope is a core will resolve big organize questions before we get to present ballot certification in january. the paperwork is in december. >> final question, you heard my commentary. i think i make a compelling days's case about each of the four indictments to be r has been to his benefit politically i anticipate this challenge will do likewise. what's your thought on that? ? honestly, this isn't about politics for me.

my job as secretary of state is to follow colorado law and uphold the u.s. constitution. i do agree that there's various ways to told someone accountable. criminal charges are about personally holding trump accountable for his actions and trying to steal the election and all the other actions he's taken. the american voters also will play a huge role. they've rejected this chaos in various election, 2018, 2020, 2022. i'm confident that the american people will once again uphold democracy, safeguard democracy, so that -- of this country continues to be one of a strong democracy going no the future. >> jenna, thank you for being here. we appreciate it. >> thank you >> hit me up on social media. i'll get to some. from the world of twitter,x unless by some miracle all

states deep him off the ballot, ma agos will vote for him regardless. if he's kept off the ballot they will have no as of of avenue in which to do so. i think the logical conclusion. when you heard the polling data, like in georgia, no state in the country that received as much attention in georgia. yet the republican, likely primary voters in the peach state are lock step with him in his belief and assertions. i don't know why the colorado challenge would be viewed any differently from likely republican voters. that's what i'm trying to bring out. you go vote. will the lawsuit to bartram for the colorado ballot under the 14th amendment help or hurt him politically? ahead. hurricane lee just the latest entry into our summer of wild climate did i name knicks, the hottest temperatures ever recorded even if don't believe in climate change you may take a serious financial hit as a

result of extreme weather. i'll explain in a moment. a storm of a different sort. the mediaesk sort. following dr. anthony f auci, and whether america will ever mask up again. it's a globally respected independent group that did a wide ranging look in the effectiveness of masks. an author of that study. primary author is here in a moment. ♪. ♪. subway's now slicing their deli meats fresh. that's why they're proferred ,by this pro who won the superbowl twice. and this pro with the perfect slice.

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. is the issue that will finally force doubters to acknowledge climate change, homeowners insurance, having just starting to dig out from hurricane idalia. this weekend another hurricane, lee, too soon to know whether it will directly impact the u.s. mainline but this summer of 23 the hottest summer, juvenile and august were warmer than preindustrial levels than 1.5 degrees celsius or 2.7 fahrenheit. breaching a key threshold scientists long warned the world must stay below to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of.

a record wildfire in canada, deadly flooding in greece. some not understanding including gop hopeful vivek ramaswany in a recent debate >> i'm the only person on the stage who isn't bought and paid for so i can say this. climate change is a hoax. climate change is a hoax: the reality is the anti-carbon agenda is the wet blanket on our economy. the reality is more people are dying of bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change. might the free markets actually disagree? consider florida where disasters pushed homeowners insurance to four times the national average. with hurricanes, wildfires, floods and tornados leveling homes across the country as my next guest recently reported in the "washington post" under home in ensures cut natural

disasterers from policies as climb risk grow. some of the largest companies say extreme weather led them to end certain coverages and raised premiums. it's author jacob bogage joins me. he's a bits reporter for the "washington post." thank you for being here. so you know, despite extreme weather, the scientists and the politicians they've not been able to convince some among us of the peril of climate change. but this kind of brings it home in a different way. don't you agree? >> absolutely. i think that's the key take away here. if you don't want to listen to the scientist, that's your prerogative. if you don't like certain politicians, your right as an american. but the free market will speak to all of us. and that's what we're looking at here. major home insurers saying hey, our business is's risk and this is too risky for us to insure your home against certain

natural disasters, because of climate change. >> jacob, what coverages are they now going to exclude? what are we talking about >> we're not looking at every insurer but five of the biggest ten insurers. all state, nationwide, american, family, brook as her hathaway. we're on tv. here we go. we're looking if you're in hurricane country, for example, they will still sell you a policy in some areas. but they're not going to sell you coverage that protects you against hurricane damage. if a pipe burst in your home. probably still insured. if a house fire. probably still insured. if wind from a hurricane destroys part of your roof. sorry, you're out of luck. same thing if we look in wildfire country, pipe bursts, probably cover. if you have wind or hail damage from a storm. probably covered. in a wildfire burns your home

down or there's smoke damage to your home, probably out of luck. that's one way. >> jacob. the rub here is that if i'm the lender, the mortgage company i'll insist you do have the coverage or i'm not going to under write your loan. this is for the benefit of people at home who say i'm not in a high risk area, i guess i don't have to worry. insurance market especially those serve many regions across the country rely on relatively stable risk projections when it comes to natural disasters balancing wildfire risk during the late spring in the pacific northwest with hurricanes in the early fall in the southeast and winter storms upper midwest insurers can spread risk across constituencies in theory, providers can check monthly premium from broad clientele without paying out claims on too many large scale disasters at once. the point is and i remember this

in the context of the affordable care act. everybody needs to be in the pool so the risk can be spread and dissipated. right? but ultimately, we're all going to feel the financial impact. you get the final word. >> you're right on this, this is climate change is coming for all of us one way or another. when we look at home insurance, we live in a country way broad risk pool. and so even if i'm not affected by a disaster, my economy will be acted by a disaster. and in this case, it's in home insurance. where your deductible will go up, premium or it might be harder for you find a policy. >> jacob thank you for writing the piece. thank you for being here. >> thank you, michael. some social media reaction. what do we have. >> on this subject >> florida had 150 hurricanes since 1850. but last was due to climate change?

have you not noted, the uptick in extreme weather that the people far more credentialed that yours truly attribute to climate change? on that subject of the risk pipe bomb. reminds me here are buzz words of obamacare. always made sense to me. the way we were able to provide coverage for those with preexisting conditions was to get everybody in the pool including the so-called young invincibles. do you remember that discussion? it's the same ethan here. the only way that folks who are in the path of storms repeated storms, are going to able to get coverage is if everybody else is sharing that burden. so the point is, it impacts us all. yes. the markets are speaking. you don't want to believe, you know, michael man, the climatologist; make sure sure you're going to smerconish.com and answer will the lawsuit to bartram from the colorado

mail-in ballot under the 14th amendment help or hurt him politically? >> ahead the convicted murderer, daniel cavalcante on the loose in the philly area ten days may have made a pit stop in the home of my guest who happily survived. is joining us to tell the tale. last saturday i had dr. anthony fauci here to say whether america would ever mask up. all hell broke loose when we debated it. i invited the first author of that review, dr. tom jefferson will join me next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ don't let student loan debt hold you back. refi at sofi.com. you could save tusands

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which kicked off renew backlash. number one story at the "washington post" this week, was this few schools mandated mask, conserves hit back hard. listed a half of situations one alabama and junior high school where masks were made mandatory. they were the rare exception, politician including presidential candidates quickly made them a lightening rod. in response to the maryland elementary school. texas senator ted cruz tweeted if you want to voluntarily mask. fine leave our kids the hell alone. missouri senator josh holly tweeted simply never again. due to such backlash, the post reported the maryland school ended up having to boost security and hold recess indoors. presidential hopeful nikki haley said this to fox news on wednesday. >> the parents can decide whether they want their children to go to school when there's a possible outbreak or not. don't sit there and mask them back up. we're already dealing with kids dealing with stress and

depression and anxiety. these younger kids have to see teachers faces. they have to be able to know that to learn. >> group of senate republicans unveil legislation to prohibit federal mandates through the end of 2024 on domestic air travel. public transit and public schools. this all aweek long media storm about my interview here this week with dr. anthony fauci about whether americans would mask up again if the cdc would recommend they do so. here's one of our exchanges. >> brett stevenses in the time talked about cochran. the most rigorous and comprehensive analysis of scientific studies conducted on the efficacy of masks for reducing the suppressed respiratory illness including covid 19 was published last month. its conclusions said tom jefferson the oxford epidemiologist were am beg with us, no evidence that they, masks make any difference. >> but there are other studies,

michael that show at an individual level for individual. when you're talking about the effect on the he want demic or the pandemic swell, the data are less strong. when you talk about as an individual basis of someone protecting themselves or protecting themselves from spreading it to others. no doubt there are many studies that show that there is an advantage. when you took the broad population level like the cochran study, the data are less firm with regard to the effect on the overall pandemic. but we're not talking about that. we're talking about an individual's effect on their own safety. that's a bit different than the broad population level. >> within hours, all hell broke loose, senator rand paul tweeted a clip saying fauci admits that masks don't work for the public at large. but still absurdly claims they work on an individual basis. immediately a variety of outlets piled on.

lending their assessment in their headline writing. the new york post roasted by saying he was a fraud and liar after confronted with damming study on masks. news week said fauci covid mask emissions sparks serious backlash. independent dr. fauci reviewed study claiming mask don't work as covid concerns rise. the daily mail. more from fauci et cetera. and fox news and news max then joined in. some do not want to let go of the panic surrounding covid 19. including the mad scientists himself, who was on over the weekend. and really pushing back against so much science. >> like the seasonal flu. scarf lady and tony the terrible are back and circulating on air. >>s this exchange that anthony fauci had with michael smerconish on cnn literally i couldn't believe it. i see glad in any brought it up

the way they let him get away with it >> follow the science or the lots of sunshiner, dr. fauci getting confronted with damming study on mask >> there's a perception by many, how many, i don't know, that they won't work >> was smerconish wearing a mask somewhere. >> the flames were still being offhand thursday boy post clemsonist who wrote mask don't work against covid 19. dr. fauci should use one to gag himself. cochran reports physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses was published earlier. and aggregate analysis of scientific studies on the efficacy of masks dr. lina wen in the "washington post" called cochran a highly reputable source gold standard of medical analysis. i thought i would go to the source, first author of the cochran study, and hear his side of the controversy, dr. tom jefferson me, an epidemiologist and senior associate tutor at

the university of oxford. doctor, thank you for being here. quick context. the 2023 publication is the fifth update. cochran is peer-reviewed, and this is an exam of research by others, meaning in this case, 78 residential randomized control trials not original research true. >> i have to correct you it was the fourth update. the 2023 is the fifth update. also, there are 78 trials, but those are not only about masks and they're not all on covid. there's only two on covid. the third mentioned. >> ok. i'm trying to just set the stage so i can ask the key question. do masks work, in your opinion,

in stopping the spread of covid? >> well, we have got as i said we've got three trials on sars-cov-2. and none of them showed an effect. it is impossible to show that something doesn't work in this case. and we adopted a chance approach. is it more likely than not? at the moment. there is no evidence thats that the case. that they work. and which mask against which pathogen, there's hundreds of pathogens. so that's a situation. now earlier on, you quoted some of the our exam of some of the trials. and yes, some of the trials are poor quality because they're difficult studies to carry on,

to carry out. logistically, and sometimes it's difficult to get people to comply with wearing a mask or washing hands or any overother interventions we're looking at. >> i'm hoping to bring clarity to viewers. because it's very hard to follow as laypeople. sounds to me, dr. jefferson, as you are saying, we don't know. and by the way, when i look at the author's conclusion and i'll put this on the screen, the author's conclusion from the most recent of these flat out says, there is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. i don't want people to think that you're here saying they don't work. it sounds to me like you're here saying i can't tell if you they do or they don't work. but please speak for yourself. >> you're correct. i can't tell you whether they work or don't work. but it's more likely than not

that they don't work. ok. based on this is not just against sars-cov-2. the covid pathogens. we're looking at interventions over 78 trials over 50 years. the whole review is over half a million participants in these trials. now, underlying problem that you go the there is that people are drunk with certainty. they're told if something works, end of story. that's not science. what science it's likely or unlikely to work or we can't find evidence of it. so. >> when you say -- but dr. jefferson, when you opine that in your opinion it's more likely than not that they don't work. that then puts you at odds. and here in lies the confusion with the editor in chief. put this on the screen. carla wiser the editor in chief of the cochran larry many

commentators claim a recently updated cochran review said mask don't work, which is an inaccurate and misleading interpretation. it would be accurate to say that the review examined whether interventions to promote mask wearing helped to slow the spread of respiratory viruses and that the results were inclusive. do you disagree with her statement? >> dr. wiser appears to be apologizing for the misconceptions and misquotes of third parties. which is extraordinary. if i had a pound or dollar for every time i been requoted, i'd be in the bahamas i'd be sunning myself in my huge villa. being misquoted and misunderstood and in a political forum like this is not my natural habitat.

this is become political. the first four iterations -- first three iterations of the review went completely unremarked. apart from the 2020. 2020 update on the 2023 updates, they started getting attention simply because masks have become political. so this is a political menu. i can only tell you what the science is -- reliable science shows. what i've just told you. i can't make up stuff. >> i understand that. i i guess i would just say this. it puts those members of the public, i include myself, in a very awkward spot. because on one hand, someone is going to hear this conversation and say, i heard the first author of the cochran study say that in his opinion, it's more likely than not that they don't work. then somebody else is going to say well, yeahing be the wait a

minute, the editor in chief of that very same publication and library has a totally different interpretation. and left and right will seize upon which elementary suits their political interest. you get the final word. but it's got to be 30 seconds. >> yeah. it's a political menu. it's a political football. nothing to do with science. it just described it. the cochran hierarchy has done other things that we will in the public the trust the evidence. systematically undermine both the 2020 and the 2023 work. all 12 of us. so that's my final work. if you're viewers are so interested in finding an answer, they should put pressure on those in power to conduct good quality trials, good quality studies. to find an answer and to

diminish, decrease the uncertainty that i the just described. >> dr. jefferson thank you. i appreciate your being here. >> thanks, michael. >> checking in on social media reaction which i'm told there is a ton just quickly. no, people are not going to mask up again in 2023, 2024, ryan, there's the one certainty that i have about all of this. because there's enough fodder, grist for the mill for people to take away whatever they want they will continue to go on believing whatever they're cliented to do so because of media outlet or politician of choice and that's a shame. the convicted murderer who escape add pennsylvania county jail on run ten days. 400 officers are after him. my next guest said he had his own run. in in his kitchen. what happened when he realized the intruder was the convict. make sure you're going to

smerconish.com and voting. there's a poll question every day. at smerconish.com. today's happens to be will the lawsuit to bartram from the colorado ballot under the 14th amendment help or hurt him politically? >> .

what would you do if an escaped murderer showed up in your house? today, day ten of the man hunt for danelo cavalcante convicted last month of first-degree murder in the 2021 killing of his xgirlfriend. he escaped from the chester county jail 30 miles west of philadelphia crab walking two walls on the roof. he ran across the roof r got

through razor wire, neither the tower guards or person tasked with monitor, the cameras saw the escape as it happened. tower guard an 18 year veteran was fired yesterday by friday nearly 400 local state and federal officers were scouring an eight square mile stretch of woods near an area called longwood gardens, where cavalcante was seen around noon on thursday. one of the eight or nine reported sightings deemed credible by authorities. you're about to hear a one of a kind tale about one such sighting last friday evening about a mile and a half from the county prison. ryan drum joins me. paint the picture. last friday night. close to midnight. you're home. you're in bed. wife is in bed. kids are in bed. what happened? >> thanks for having me on. yes, so friday, we were, even before we went to bed. we were all in the deck, you know, enjoying our friday. and we were locking up the house, because we knew there was a prisoner on the loose.

we this old french door off the side of our deck. i struggled to get it lock. i said don't we're, he's probably nowhere near here. we end up going to sleep. i hear a nice around 11:30, walk out. from my bedroom, i looked down towards the kitchen is to the side. i walk back to my wife and said i think there might be somebody downstairs, grab your phone. went back out. saw that the door was slightly ajar. that's when my stomach dropped. i ran down the hallway to make sure my kids were accounted for. when i came back, i could start to hear, you know, a little bit of shuffling. so i grabbed any kind of weapon that i could and ironically the only thing that i had was a picture frame of my wife and kids. and when i grabbed it, i did like a frisby motion. in that moment, i realized how

ridiculous, here's a guy a murderer surrounded by steak knives. i looked to my left saw the light switch decided to flick the light switch on and off, three, four times. there was a pause. and he flicked light switches back at me from the kitchen. that was kind of the acute moment of terror i turn to my wife and said he's downstairs, call 911 now. and at that point, there was a little bit of a pause. and you know, i wasn't sure if he was going to come up the steps. in which case i would have to go down and there would be a confrontation. and in that moment, i saw him walk out of the kitchen into the living room, not running, kind of walking methodically. he had a white shirt, white bag, white hat and he went out that french door and by that time i was on phone with the police and they arrived moments later. >> ryan, quickly because i'm limited on time.

do you think that he was signalling to you stay where you are and nobody gets hurt? is that what you interpreted that flick of the switch to be? >> i do. i do. i mean, i flicked to let him know i know you're downstairs. i feel like he was flicking back saying, yeah, i'm here. >> a lot of local businesses quick final thought. this has been devastating for local businesses that have had to close. you've got one top of >> car co, a gas station, convenience store, not a lot around here, and they stayed open in support of the cops and giving them gatorade and air conditioning for refuge and lost nine days of customers at this point. >> what a shame. >> hope they can support him. >> good message. >> what a hell of a story. thank you for being here to tell it. we appreciate it. >> all right, thank you. still to come, more of your best and worst social media comments, and we'll give you the result of this week's poll

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biden. we all know your aim is to promote trump through stealth. you are giving me more credit than i deserve. i'm really not that sophisticated. i'm really not. the commentary today was a analysis of whether his continued efforts to bring down trump legally speaking are actually helping him. and that was the dialogue that i had with the secretary of state of the great state of colorado. hit up smerconish.com. vote on the poll question. remember september 11th, on monday, the 22nd anniversary. i'll see you. trying vapes to quit smoking might feel like progress, but with 3x more nicotine than a pack of cigarettes - vapes increase cravings - trapping you in an endless craving loop. nicorette reduces cravings til they're gone for good.

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good morning, everyone. it is saturday, september 9th. i'm amara walker