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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  August 13, 2023 10:00am-11:01am PDT

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this is "gps, the global public square." welcome to all of you in the
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united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new ♪ ♪ we'll start today's program with two of the world's critical hot ♪ ♪ >> first, ukraine, where president zelenskyy admitted this week that the counteroffensive is difficult as western officials tell cnn that further decisive progress by kyiv is highly unlikely. ♪ >> so where does the war go from here? then to niger where a military ju junta launcheded a coup three days ago. that makes for a six-country belt of coups spanning 3,500 miles right across the african continent. we'll tell you what you need to know about the startling trend. also, are you amazed by the power of artificial intelligence? well, wait until you hear about quantum computing.
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it will make today's a.i. look like child's play. i talked to the famous physicist miccio kaku about what he sees as the real gamechanger. >> but first, here's my take. in only may 2023, it seemed obvious that the united states was going to face an unmanageable border crisis in the previous fiscal year there were 2.4 million apprehensions of people trying to enter the u.s. at the southern board. and their authorities are about to implement title 42 in 2020 that allowed them to swiftly expel migrants at the border as a pandemic prevention measure. also had meant that temp ware, was there no crisis and the number of encounters with migrants at the southern border dropped by a third from 1,700
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per day april to 1,400 per day in june, the latest available data. why did this happen? it seems that the biden administration's plan worked. it put in place a serious of measures designed to deal with the impending problem. chiefly, a stiff penalty for crossing the border illegally, deportation plus a five-year ban on any re-entry, coupled with expanded ways to apply for legal asylum in the migrant's home country. it was a welcome case of well-designed policy making a difference. but this success does not change the fact that the u.s. immigration system is broken. the crush at the southern border may be less than anticipated, but it's still an influx and its effects are being felt across the united states. texas overwhelmed by the numbers has famously bussed migrants to washington, d.c. and new york, but the truth is migrants have been crowding into many major american cities on a scale that
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is breaking those communities' capacity to respond. the new york metropolitan area has borne a huge burden. new york is housing more than 50,000 migrants and homeless facilities and this number will about double by 2025. he also estimates that the price tag for the city will be $12 billion over the next three years. each year, that would be roughly two-third of what the city budgets for the new york police department. >> new york city is a magnet because after a 1979 lawsuit, it has based policy on the notion that every person entering the city has a right to shelter. in fact, this right is ambiguous, and if it exists it applies at the state level and not just that of the city, but places from denver to l.a. is r are all reeling from the burden of this influx. the mieg ragsz crisis is being
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exacerbated by politics on both sides. it demonizes with solution since a cries attacks them. they're aim as kuroyedovbing, many blue cities like san francisco have ordinances and rules that forced the local government to tolerate homelessness and vagrancy. ed by know's asylum po policy faces lawsuits and court challenges from several left-wing groups. america's immigration system iis broken. if asylum laws were designed in the aftermath of the holocaust to allow admission to a small number of people facing% k persecution because of their beliefs it provided for their residency applications were evaluated while they were waiting in the united states. in recent years, millions of migrants have arrived at the
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border with huge numbers of them claiming asylum. while some might have legitimate claims, most are fleeing the same conditions of pof erty, violence, instability and disease that have been driving would-be immigrants to the united states for hundreds of years. today many have realized that today if they claim asylum they get special treatment. some u.s. officials handling this issue have told me that people are simply gaming the system to gain the best possible chance of entry. the laws and rules around asylum must be fixed so that the immigration authorities can focus the small number of genuine asylum seekers while compelling the rest to seek other legal means of entry. at the same time it's important to note that america is currently facing a drastic shortfall of labor and needs to expand legal immigration in many areas for just that reason. we urgently need to attract the world's best technically skilled people so they can push forward
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the information and biotech revolutions that are transforming the economy and life itself and with unemployment rates around 50-year lows, it's obvious that we need more workers in many sectors of the economy from agriculture to hospitality. if this is done in a legal and orderly manner, americans will welcome the new workers biden has tried to work with republicans on several issues and he's even had a few successes. he should propose an immigration bill that is genuinely bipartisan and forces compromises from both sides. it would be one more strong dose of evidence that policy can triumph over populism. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week, and let's get started. ♪ ♪
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11 months ago on this program, president volodymyr zelenskyy told me his goal was to remove all russian troops from ukraine. the interview took place as soldiers seized kharkiv back from russian control. today the picture looks very different. ukraine is evacuating civilians from kharkiv as russia mounteds an area of bombardment of the territory. western officials have expressed disappointment in a much-wanted counteroffensive which began in june. ukraine has only taken back 100 square miles of territory since then. so why does the counter offensive seem to be faltering and does ukraine have a chance at gaining more ground? joining me now to discuss is alina polyakova the president and ceo of the center for european policy analysis. welcome, al ina. tell us if we're right that the
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counteroffensive is not going as well as people had thought. what is the central reason? is there a central reason? >> the expectations on the counteroffensive were from the start unreasonably high and u krab has never had complete control over its airspace and if you think about carrying out an offensive which is what the ukrainians are doing while being bombarded from the air constantly and no u.s. military operation would be carried out in the same way without complete air superiority. so that's one significant challenge that is really slowing down the ukrainians and the second reason that is equally as important is that after many colossal blunders in terms of its tactics and operations, the russians have now also adapted to a long, drawn-out conflict and they are now in the position of defending territory which, in
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some ways, is easier than taking back territory, and those are, i think, the two main reasons for why we are seeing the kind of on the ground dynamics that have disappointed some western officials. >> so that raises this very difficult question going forward, right? which is that russians are now defending and they've often dug into these positions and they put land mines in and the ukrainians are trying to attack and traditional nato doctrine would say you need a three to one advantage in manpower and maybe a four to one advantage to achieve any kind of victory? is it possible for the ukrainians to break through this russian -- this russian and they've got land mines and trenches and they have artillery behind the trenches. >> look, everything is really unknown in the fog of war, right? certainly right now it doesn't look like ukraine is in an
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enviable position and they're taking high casualties over the last year and a half or so and the russian side has dug in and they have mined the areas between themselves and the ukrainian advance very, very heavily, that is hurting the ukrainians in huge ways. a lot of the weapons that the west provided earlier on in the war takes, for example, are being taken out by these mines at a higher number than i think, many anticipated and i think now is the moment to re-think our western policy, as well, because we weren't prepared for this kind of war. we were supplying ukraines with weapons to at least be able to defend themselves, but we weren't supplying them with a kind of weapons they need to be able to launch a proper counteroffensive which first and foremost means high, long-range missile capability so they can disrupt russia's supply lines behind the front lines. they are very limited in their ability to do that. so never say never, but i do
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think the outlook does not look positive for ukraine over the next three to four month moose when you talk to biden administration officials they usually have two arguments for why they haven't been done faster. one is the ukrainians need to be trained on this equipment and the second is with longer range missiles there is a balance. you don't want to use missiles that attack deep into the heart of russian territory which could give the russians the provocation to feel that they were at war with nato, to use tactical nuclear weapons, to get much more aggressive in term of their aerial bombardment of ukrainian cities. what do you think of those arguments? >> the argument that we're going to somehow provoke russia beyond what it's currently already done, i think this is a red herring, frankly, mainly because i don't think there is a high chance that the russians will go towards the nuclear decision.
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we have managed that nucleares klatt or risk very, very effectively and the biden administration deserves a huge amount of credit for that, certainly and it's not in the russian interest because they would lose whatever alliances or partnerships they still have with countries like china, with india who do not approve of nuclear use and have made that very clear publicly as well as privately to the russians, and my second point would be in terms of reaching further into russian territory by the ukrainians. well, look, this is war. if you're not able to disrupt your enemy's supply lines, if you're not able to hit their -- their centers of operations, even on ukrainian territory, the ukrainians cannot fully reach russia's logistics and supply lines in their own country, and i think this is where the real problem is. ukraine has no interest in attacking russia. they don't want to escalate this war as president zelenskyy said
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in your program they want to take back their own territory and currently they don't have the reach to be able to truly, truly fight this war in the way that any western military would have in a similar environment. >> alina, that is incredibly enlightening. thank you so much. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," niger and the global implications of one more coup in west africa. ♪ ("please don't go" by harry casey, richard raymond finch ) ♪ (ping) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ don't goooooo! ♪ ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ don't go away ♪ ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ i wanna hold you forever ♪
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niger's military seized power last month, detaining the country's pro-western president mohammed bazun in dissolving the country's constitution. the head of bazun's own presidential guard now claims he is in charge of niger. the coup has sparked fury within most of west africa's political bloc which met this week to
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announce it is activating a standby force for a possible military intervention, but the bloc appears split with two-member countries that experienced a coup recently, mali and burkina faso vowing to defend niger's junta which is now in power. joining me to discuss what is at stake is ramayad, senior collector of the atlantic counsel's africa center and she served as france's secretary of state for foreign affairs and human rights. welcome. help us understand what is going on here. "the new york times" call this the coup belt, and if you look at the area that is just below the sahara and above the sudanese sahara, it does seem that it's been six coups in the last few years. so what is going on? >> niger is the least frontier f
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the fight on terrorism in africa and that's where these countries matter so much now. the second reason is there is a strong fear that the region, the sahel collapses and falls in the hands of china and russia because, as you know, there is the strong competition between global powers and even regular powers in africa, and niger represents these two things. last frontier of this fight against terrorism, against the islamic state and al qaeda in africa, but also, it's an important asset for western forces who would like to contain the chinese and the russian agenda in africa. >> so this is getting very complicated. so let me try to understand it, because what you see is in the same area of the sahel, global terrorism deaths have gone from about 1% in 2007. now it's up to 43%.
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so you have the islamic state or isis destabilizing these country which is is causing the governments to get weak and fragile and meanwhile, the chinese and the russians are trying to take advantage. are they allied? are the chinese and russians allied with the military juntas that are taking control in these countries? >> you know, russia, it's more a matter of opportunity and china, it's not limited to the sahel. there is global competition everywhere on the continent, but every time a coup happens in that arena, you can see russian flags in demonstration, popular demonstrations. africa is key in -- in its influence, in russian influence and it's a good way for the russian government to avoid -- to avoid sanctions because it's
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a rich territory, and as you know, wagner is very active in mali, for example, where they try to develop and they are developing predatory business through diamonds, gold, sugar, you know, all this very important materials that are very important to feed the war in ukraine. so no matter what we say here, the future of the war in ukraine goes through the sahel region. so that's why it is so important. >> the whole thing does feel like one more step backwards in terms of democracy, right? you have these countries that had kind of heroically managed to become democracies and slowly, one by one, it is unraveling. it -- it feels to me like part of a global trend, but particularly concentrated in
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these fragile states in africa. >> when you have been facing the terrorist groups for ten, 15 years in the poorest countries in the world, knowing that you have to manage very vast and large territories, where local governance is weak, i can tell you it's very challenging and president bazun from niger was doing his best and many experts noticed that the number of attacks of terrorist attacks against the civilians have decreased this past month and in past year, and it was not enough. the regional west african organization decided to activate its standby force, a military force and to be ready to restore the -- the democratically elected president bazum who is
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detained right now in a house in yami by the coup leaders. so there is a lot that is going on right now. a lot is on the line. when they do cross that line and send the soldiers to restore the classic power in niger or not? and in the meantime, the coup leaders are doing their thing. you know they have appointed a new government, a new prime minister. they have good warriors and they face the sanctions. so -- and under the eyes of a warring international community. a lot is on the line there. there is a glimmer of hope there and we'll have to leave it at that and keep watching. thank you so much. >> thank you. thank you, fareed, for having me. next on "gps," many experts predicted the united states would be in recession by now. in fact, most, but the american economy is actually being
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is supposed to be in a recession or at least that was the overwhelming conventional wisdom this time last year when most experts predicted that high inflation, a massive energy shock, created by the ukraine war and overheated labor market would lead us in that direction especially because the federal reserve continued to raise interest rates. one economic model at bloomberg last october set the odds of a u.s. recession at 100%, but it turns out that the economy is actually humming along pretty well. inflation has come down significantly, america's gdp growth is the strongest in the g7, unemployment remains at a more than 50-year low and wages
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are even grow. today the fed is no longer forecasting a recession at all, and big banks like j.p. morgan chase and bank of america have also walked back their recession predictions. so why did economists get things so wrong? i am joined by jason furman who has some answers and he's the professor of economics at harvard's kennedy school and a former economic adviser to president barack obama. >> welcome, and before we get started, i want to do a big hat tip to derek thompson who has a wonderful podcast, and he and you talked about some of those issues, and this is very much inspired by that. so my question quite simply is if someone were to ask you how come the u.s. is not whether many would ask you. what's the answer? >> fareed, there are three parts to that answer.
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the first part is that in 2020 and 2021 the government gave people $5 trillion. they didn't go out and spend all that money right away. in fact, it was hard to spend a lot of this money in those years and so some of that money got spent in 2022. some of it is still being spent now and you see that in the very strong consumer spending numbers. the second thing is that russian invasion of ukraine is still just absolutely horrific, but in terms of the economic data, the price of oil is back to where it was before there was any concern about the invasion. it's basically that particular issue has gone away and then the third thing is the fed has raised rates a lot. it raised them by more than five percentage points, but rates still aren't that high in the grand scheme of history. so maybe monetary policy wasn't as contraction aeary and negati
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as a force as many thought it was. >> you talk about consumer spending, but isn't it also true that maybe we didn't keep in mind that the biden administration was also spending? there's a massive infrastructure bill and an inflation reduction act which has a fair amount of spending in it. there's the c.h.i.p.s act which has a fair amount of spending and it also did the price cap on oil which forced russia to discount its price, further reducing energy prices. so could that all -- i mean, think of your three buckets, one and two, spending and energy prices and do you think those were effects, as well? >> yeah. i agree with all of that. normally you would see as the economy strengthens and the unemployment rate is low and you expect see the budget deficit go down. right now we're seeing something
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unusual which is over the last year the budget deficit has actually been rising and part of that is all these new programs that you just mentioned, infrastructure, chips, climate change and the like and they are really sort of stimulating the economy and the other thing is yeah, the reason oil prices fell isn't just pure luck, it's, in part, the administration has done pretty deft handling of denying russia some of the money, maybe not all of the money they account otherwise have gotten from oil and while making sure that didn't cause a global recession by spiking. >> and finally, let me ask you about going forward. as you point out, there's been a lot of government spending, usually in situations like this, the deficit is going down. right now it's going up. it's going up a lot. do you worry about that rising deficit and could it derail the economy in some way?
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>> yeah. look. i'm worried about the deficit now. i was less worried a few years ago, but a few things have changed. one is interest rates have risen a decent amount and that makes it harder to service your debt. the second is there is an old rule that when times are good your deficit going down and, and that's fine if you're doing that and reit now we're breaking that rule with a pretty large deficit. so i'm not panicked. i don't think the sky is falling, but washington is going to at least in the next few years need to return its attention to this question in a way that it really hasn't for some time. >> jason furman of harvard university, thank you so much. next on "gps," you may think the next big breakthrough may be in artificial intelligence, but i want to tell you what could be an even bigger technological revolution, the wild world of quantum computing.
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the hottest new thing in technology right now, but my next guest says there's something else we should be paying attention to, quantum computing. it is an emerging field that aims to use the weird properties of quantum particels to make computers that have vastly more processing powers than computers have today and that could help us solve all kinds of difficult problems. i spoke to the famous physicist michio kaku who has a new book called "quantum supremacy, how the quantum computer revolution will change everything. michio kaku, welcome again. tell me what your take on the a.i. chat bots, chatgpt that everybody is so obsessed by now? >> i think the media is hypervent lating over the implications of these chat bots.
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first of all, they are productive. they are going to speed up the ability to produce materials. it's going to be an advance for society ney general, however, people are focusing on the negative aspects of chat bots, as well because people are afraid. however, what is a chat bot? a chat bot is a glorified tape recorder. it takes snippets of what's on the web, created by a human, splices them together and passes it off as if it created these things and people are saying oh e my god, it's a human. it's human-like. the chat bot simply rearranges whatever is on the internet already. it's a tape recorder of a very advanced type that does not understand truth, what is false and does not understand slander versus reality and that has to be put in by a human. >> so the real shift that you say is going to take place is
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once we get to kwauquantum computing. we've gone through three stages of revolution, we competed with sticks, stones, levers, pulleys string. that was the first stage, the analog stage and then comes world war ii and at that point we switched to electricity and we switched to transistors and that gave us the microchip and the digital revolution of today. we are in stage 2. >> could it be ones and zeros, the bits and bites? >> that's right. zeros and ones, zeros and ones, but mother nature would laugh at us because mother nature does not use zeros and ones, zeros and ones. mother nature uses electrons, electron waves, waves that create molecules and that's why we are now entering stage three. silicon valley could become a rust belt unless they get on the bandwagon, but -- >> but would it be fair to say that the shift that you're describing, quantum computing,
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basically we are now trying to mrim mimic what nature does because an electron is not a particle, it's a waive and that's where computing has to go? >> my god, i think you've got it. that's exactly what we're talking about, because, for example, take a look at a transistor. a transistor his two state, up and down, left or right, true or false and think of an atom that spins either up or down. two states, the digital revolution is based on that idea. however, the quantum computer can be at any angle. now think about that. they are kinfinitely more space that you can create if it is allowed to wobble and point in any direction whatsoever rather than up or down. >> so quantum computing is a computing using not computer chips, but using these waves or these -- >> that's right. >> the various states of these waves. these waves can vibrate in any direction and they're
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simultaneous. so that it can actually calculate two tor three places at the same time. so think of a mouse in a maze. a digital computer who would calculate the trajectory of each mouse at every joint and every place where there is a decisions to be made in a maze. it takes forever. quantum computer instantly analyzes all possible modes, all possible strajectories simultaneously. that violates common sense. common sense means you cannot be two places at the same time. well, get with it. in the quantum theory, you can be many places at the same time, and that's the power of quantum computers. >> what would it look like? would my laptop look the same? >> when you look at a quantum computer, it's like a chandelier, a gigantic device, but the actual computation is done at the very bottom. what is this chandelier? >> the chandelier is bringing it
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down to near absolute zero where there are no vibrations and if someone sneezes a block away that can worry the whole calculation, so you want to be near frozen in absolute zero. >> stop me when i'm wrong, when you hear about the artificial know telejens and the amount compu computering power you run rusing this stuff, i was thinking, god, the brain is energy defishence. we are doinging it us using these vast computers with their pete. >> mother nature is the most complex object in the known universe. we know nothing more complex than the human brain which has 100 billion neurons and each neuron connected to 10,000 other neurons and it's all done at room temperature. so we're playing catch up.
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catch up to mother nature. mother nature is quantum, and that's where we have to make the transition from digital computers to quantum computers. that will allow us to calculate diseases, for example, that are at the quantum level. cancer, parkinson's, alzheimer's disease. these are diseases at the molecular level. woe are powerless to cure these diseases because we have to learn the language of nature which is the language of molecules and quantum electrons. michio kaku, always a pleasure to talk to you. >> next on "gps," are you happy with your job? while most of the world's employees are not engaged at work, my next guest will tell us how to make work more meaningful when we come back. at's why farms new car replacement pays to replace it with a new one of the same make and model. get a whole lot of something with farmers policy perks. ♪ farmers mnemonic ♪ my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund,
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according to a recent gallup survey, only 23% of the world's
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employees say they are engaged and thriving at work. that number is actually an increase from previous years. but most workers of the world are not satisfied with their employment. my next guest has a vision for how to make work more meaningful. bruce feiler is an author who has written sen "new york times" best-sellers. his latest is "the search, finding meaningful work in a post career world." bruce feiler, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much. thank you for inviting me. >> so everybody is aware that there is something going o the workforce. there was during pandemic and there was that great resignation where people just dropped out. and then there is this whole work-from-home thing where people are stubbornly resisting the idea of going back to work. all of which suggests some kind of dissatisfaction with the old work model. and what is interesting to me is
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you've been on to this earlier than most of us because you've been researching this book. tell me what led you, what took you to this place of asking what is going on in the work force and why are people unhappy. >> well, i think that is a great frame for this conversation. so as you say, i spent the last six years helping people navigate life transitions. i have crisscrossed the country multiple times carrying stories of all backgrounds and all walks of life and all 50 states, and i've been looking for clues for how people can find meaning in times of change. and as you say, no area of our life is changing more than work. so let's just set the table here. 70% of americans are unhappy with what they do. 75% of americans in the survey released in april, say they plan to look for new work this year.
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that means 100 million americans, in a workforce of 160 million, will sit across from someone today, tonight, tomorrow, and say i'm not happy with what i'm doing. i want to do work that makes me happy. >> is it possible for everyone to have work with meaning? because i feel like this is something that people like us talk about a lot, because what we do honestly is great fun. i can't believe people pay me to do this. and scott galloway says, this whole idea of telling young people you have to find your passion when you are 20 or 21 is kind of nonsense. find something your pretty good at and try to do it well and try to move up and get more responsibility and that becomes more fun. what do you make of that argument? >> i agree that follow your passion is one of the worst pieces of career advice. i asked everybody did you follow your passion? did you discover your passion,
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nine out of ten people did not follow their passion. your passions change. the world changes. along comes circumstances. here comes a.i. to the idea of locking into a passion early is a bad piece of advice. but what i do think is true is that people across the income spectrum care about meaning. but the question, and i think the opening and what i've tried to offer here, is how do you decide what gives you meaning when that is going to change over time? >> and what is the answer? >> the people who were happiest and most fulfilled in what they do, they don't just climb, they also dig. they perform what i call a meaning audit where they do personal archeology, like this treasure hunt through their own life story trying to figure out -- >> trying to figure out what it is that they like, what makes them happy and what gives them purpose? >> today. not two years ago, not ten years ago, not what your parents
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wanted. not what you thought you wanted but what you're doing right now. i'm in a moment in my life when. i'm in a moment in life when i need to make money because my kids are going to college. or i have newborns and i want to spend more time with my children or i want to travel more or i'm an empty nester and now i want to do something for myself. the point is that your who, your what, your when, they ving over time. this is the great opportunity of the non-linear work life where you'll go through 20 of these workweeks in your life. any one can be -- >> and i think what you're saying that we're going through one of these big transitions. >> yes. >> that nothing is going to flip back to what it looked like ten years ago. >> yes. >> that these trends that we see, the work from home, the great resignation, this is all part of a much broader phenomenon. so five, ten years from now, you think the workplace -- careers will look completely different and how?
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>> i absolutely think it is that big of a change. i think what is happening is a rebalancing of the power between the worker and the workforce. and so really what i'm offering people here is this opportunity to meet actual real people. i mean, i tell the story in the introduction, it is one of my favorite stories, of a woman named roy park who was on the soviet desk of cia at the most prestigious and she made a transition within the cia to leave the spy department, to go to the bureaucracy side and run payroll. like her friend said, you are a fool. what did she do? she ended up running the entire cia. and every story, fareed, has what i call the un-right decision, the decision that will disappoint somebody, but it's the decision that is ultimately
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true to yourself. that's the burden, but it's the opportunity of this moment to decide what story you want to tell. >> bruce feiler, pleasure to have you on. >> my pleasure. thank you for having me. >> a fascinating book. my thanks to bruce feiler and thanks to you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. $300 off. with verizon business. it's your business. it's your verizon. ok, dad, next take more speed. more speed. the best performance is high performance. find it at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. how do we decide what hotel to book? [ding] aargh! fear not, i got you! who are you? i'm your fairy hotel mother. what is happening? let me help you pick a hotel you feel good about. choice hotels is a family of brands, with a hotel for every type of stay. [whoosh]
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hello everyone. thank you for joining me this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield in washington, d.c. we begin this hour with exclusive new reporting on the investigation into donald