this is "gps", the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the

world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, the justice department throws 37 charges at former president donald trump. saying he mishandled classified documents. the indictment say the papers laid out everything from america's military weaknesses to foreign nation's nuclear capacities. what does it mean for u.s. security? should he have been indicted? >> i'm an innocent man. i did nothing wrong. then, artificial intelligence may be the most important development of our time. but is it the most dangerous as well? we know it will replace jobs and blur the lines of reality but it could be a larger existential threat? i'll talk to geoffrey hinton, known as the godfather of ai,

who said, yes. >> the worry is can we keep them working for us when their much more intelligent than us. also, how do you end extreme poverty globally? it is a very tall order. but ajay banja wants to do just that. he's the brand-new head of the world bank. he's tasked with taking global action in a world where the western russia are at odds and tensions are rising with china. he'll join me live for his first interview in the job. but first, here is my take. if you want a glimpse into the future, come to berlin and walk down the bustling avenue of described at the chaun dell

he'll se. sleek and elegant a cafe and design room and show centers and more. you see what looks like a bugatti or a ferrari, but it is an ep-9. top of the line racing car sold to a handful of customers for around $3 million each. the company behind it is neo. one of china's new car makers which is going to take the world by storm. ten years ago, china exports a tiny number of cars relatively. today, it is the world leading exporter of automobiles, handily ousting japan from that position. it is especially strong in electric vehicles. two of every three evs in the world, are made in china. as we think about china's weaknesses these days, it is worth remembering the strengths and the degree to which it is

intertwined into the global economy. [ bell ] new cars are designed in munich. it is research and develop centers in san jose and oxford, england and beijing and shanghai and assembles vehicles in china. europe is an interesting place to think about china. i traveled to germany and italy and britain and everywhere the conversation turns to washington's policies toward china. most of the political figures i spoke with were apprehensive. strongly behind the biden administration's policies toward russia and credits the president with united the west and infusing it with strategic clarity and purpose. they were far more worried about policy toward china and more fenlly about biden's new

international policies as outlined by jake sullivan, the national security adviser. gordon brown explained the european dilemma. europe needs an dlindustrial policy, but it cannot afford to mimic the administration's protectionism, he told me. for europe trade is vital. it is prosperity is dependent on trade with the rest of the world, including china. in a way that america is not. unlike america, europe imports energy and is not self-sufficient. despite the surface agreement across the atlantic, this could be a growing divide. he acknowledged that the administration has made moves to expand trade ties but expressed the concern that all of them are bilateral and regional efforts that might undercut local trade at the dispense of any real discussion of what multi-lateral order may look like. fo

former prime minister of denmark concurred europe could not divorce itself from china. that is the end of globalization. that is why we want to de-risk, not de-couple. derisking, a term famously applied by ursela van der line,ine the biden administration now said that it also wants to derisk rather than decouple. sullivan reiterated that last week here on "gps." but they worry this is a rhetoric cal change and that american policies and chinese responses will keep moving the ratchet up. what people in washington hear these views, they often tend to dismiss europe as to passive and passivist. assuming on china the u.s. will have to build a new coalition with india and japan and vietnam. and even with these asian countries, there will be limits.

china is as close to the second trading partner and future growth depends on maintaining a healthy relationship. the former singapore diplomat and author of the asian 21st century points out that discussions in the west forget that the world's growth is coming from asia. he used his own region as an example. in 2000, japan's economy was eight times larger than southeast asia, asean and it is expected to be the same size as japan. the largest trading relationship in the world right now is between china and asean. almost a trillion dollars. and these countries cannot grow without open and vibrant trade especially with china. america's strategic genius has always been to offer the world

not a pax americana, designed to secure american power and weaken its competitors but rather a global system that was open, free and fair. we are all need a well functioning and expanding global trading system and multi-lateral institutions that work. noted gordon brown. he recalled that president bill clinton described the need for stronger global institutions by explaining that they would indeed constrain america, but also constrain the new rising powers in the world. he said, we desperately need more of that enlightened self-interest from washington these days. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started.

31 of the 37 counts in the federal indictment against donald trump accuse the former president of illegally retaining classified documents. federal prosecutors say that at plg his private club in florida, that doubled as his home, boxes of presidential papers containing classified information were stored everywhere. from a stage in a ballroom to a chandeliered and gilded bathroom. i asked tim naftali to join me to talk about the national security and political impacts of all of this. he's the former director of the nixon library, a cnn presidential historian and next month he begins a new role teaching at columbia's school of international and public affairs. tim, welcome. your training is actually as a intelligence historian. so looking at all of this, what do -- what could we glean from what -- what were these documents? did they reveal things?

how -- how worried should we be? >> well, for viewers who remember, benedict cumber batch and the imitation game, that in world war ii, certain secrets were very fragile. if the nazis have figured out that they were intercepting messages, they tcould have changed their communication system and we would have been shut out and been blind. jack smith, in order to underscore the severity of the alleged crimes, has actually revealed to us in the indictment the level of sensitive of the documents. so donald trump caused to move to the bathroom, documents that include code and cipher information, information that we derive from breaking other country's codes. donald trump put in the bathroom, or had put in the bathroom, material from agents working, putting their lives at risk for us working in other

countries. he put at risk material from our satellites that would reveal the resolution of our satellites. all of these are about as sensitive material as we have in the u.s. government. and these related to the military capabilities of foreign countries. this is not gossip. this is not high level gossip. this is about our ability to protect ourselves and our allies. one cannot imagine a collection of more valuable informa than those that donald trump considered his trophies. >> when people say, well, but, biden had some documents in his garage and hillary and the server, what strikes you as the difference here? >> what is important here is the reaction to the u.s. government. when the u.s. government determined that donald trump had not turned over everything, the u.s. government asked for it nicely. as it should. donald trump ever all is a

former president. you have to treat them with respect though they don't have the powers they once had. donald trump engaged in a systematic, according to the indictment, a systematic conspiracy to prevent the u.s. government from reclaiming documents that belonged to the american people and should be protected. there is no evidence that mike pence, former vice president biden, or hillary clinton engaged in systematic deception and conspiracy to prevent the u.s. government from protecting the secrets that we americans expect the u.s. government to protect. >> so they all said, in effect, realized, this was a mistake and they -- >> they all make -- you know, our government allows for mistakes. people make mistakes. and we're talking about huge amounts of material that move at a end of a presidency or when someone leaves office. but when you figure out that something is missing, our system requires good faith on the part of former members of the

government. basically they have to say, well, i made a mistake. let me help you rectify the mistake. and normally our government recognizes that and there will be no charges. vice president pence, former vice president biden now president biden and hillary all engaged in a process to rectify the mistakes they made. donald trump stonewalled and apparently engaged in a conspiracy with a valet to make sure that even his lawyer didn't know the nature of the materials he was keeping. >> and we know that there was some tweets, that you pointed out that mark, that he talks about the battle plans with iran and said tell that story. >> we don't know how, but the national archives figured out that donald trump had materials that he shouldn't have in mar-a-lago. and this is in 2021. he's already left office. and he knows through his lawyers that the national archives want them back.

this is the repository for these presidential materials. at the same time that he's stonewalling the national archives, he's showing off to a -- a group -- actually mark meadows ghost writer, his former chief of staff, he's showing off to them a battle plan for attacking iran. now why is he doing that? because he wants to prove to them, hey, general milley, chairman of the joints chiefs of staff saying that i'm crazy, that i want to attack iran. let me show you, he's the crazy one. he put together a battle plan and i i've got it and it is secret and i could have de classified it but i can't any more. this is caught on tape. this is part of the indictment. so we know that donald trump knew that he had classified material and that he couldn't declassify it and three that he didn't care and that was already engaged in conspiracy to prevent the government from getting the materials it has to have and get. >> you're the former member of the nixon library.

what is the parallel here with richard nixon? is there one. >> this is a reminder that we've had corrupt presidents before but there was a red line. and that red line was whether the perfresident wanted a great presidency to exist for future generations. for all of his laws, richard nixon realized that he was not going to burn the house down. when the supreme court said you have to turn over the tapes, it took him a few hours but he realized that the office of the presidency is bigger than him. >> he responded to subpoenas. >> donald trump believe he is more important than the office of the presidency, more important than the security of our military, and that it is more important than the security of our intelligence secrets that he matters more than any other element of our constitutional republic. that is a line that richard nixon never crossed. >> tim naftali, always a

pleasure to have you on. next, artificial intelligence may proffer useful in almost all aspects of human life. but will it also bring about the end of human life? my next guest who has been dubbed the godfather of ai said it does pose an existential risk. that important story in a moment.

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a masterpiece in taste when chatgpt burst into the public consciousness late last year, its abilities stunned the world. headlines blared that it was able to pass the bar exam and hold human like text conversations and it writes computer code and term papers and shakespeare. it is not that one program. google and microsoft and other companies have their own artificial intelligence software. people have been fascinated and frightened. the fright was heightened last month when more than 350

computer scientists and tech executi executives signed on to a one sentence statement that said mitigating the risk of extinction from ai should be a global priority alongside other societal scaled risks such as pandemics and nuclear war. one of the signatories is a man who has been called the godfather of airport, geoffrey hunton. he leave his job to freely discuss the risks of ai and that is what i want to ask him about today. geoffrey, welcome. >> thank you. so first, before we get into the bad stuff, i want to, you know, give people a sense of the amazing creativity that produced ai and the thrill you must have felt. so at what point did you start to realize, as a professor, that you were beginning to -- that

you were getting computers to be able to think? >> so back in 1986, we started using algorithm, it was invented by many different people called back propagation and then we had them doing a little bit of thinking and it didn't work as well as we hoped and at that point we didn't understand that all we needed was more data and bigger computers. by by 2006 we had that and then we started seeing real progress and artificial networks models after the brain and being able to do all sorts of things that conventional symbolic ai had not been able to do, like recognize images and speech and be able to predict the next word in a sentence. >> for you, was there a kind of crossing of the rubicon moment when you realize thatted computers were just getting so good and so powerful at ai? >> so i think in 2012, two of my

graduate students, who is now the chief scientist at open ai and alex perchefski made neuronets that were much better at recognizing objects and images. so you have a million images an people couldn't do better than getting 25% wrong and suddenly they got 15% wrong. and that was a huge break through. it is clear this stuff was not working much better than previously methods, previous ways of doing ai. >> when did you start to go from being exhilarated about all of this to worrying? >> really only a few months ago. so, i was always worried about things like what would happen to the people whose jobs were lost to ai and would there be battle robots and what about all of the fake news that it would produce and what about the eco chambers being produced by click on things that make them indignant. all of those things i was

worried about. but the idea that this stuff will get smarter than us and replace us, i only got worried about a few months ago when i suddenly flipped any view. my view had been that i'm working on trying to make digital intelligence by trying to make it like the brain. and i assume the brain is better. and we're just trying to sort of catch up with the brain. i suddenly realized maybe the algorithm that we've got is better than the brain already. and when we scale it up, we'll get things smarter than us. >> and the fundamental reason for that, i think you've said, is that computers learn instantaneously and every computer in the world if it is connected, learns and gets to know everything. so explain that scale of computing power compared to the brain. >> okay. so if you learn something, and now you want to convey that to me. what you do is you produce sentences and i try to figure

out how i could produce the same sentences. but there is not that much information in a sentence. so, it is a very slow and painful business conveying what you know to somebody else. but if you have two different digital computers, that have exactly the same model of the world, and one of them sees one document, and another one sees a different document, and each learn from the document they're seeing, and so if you have 10,000 computers like that, it is like you have 10,000 people all learning from different data and as soon as one person learns something, everybody knows it. >> and intelligence has strengthened by that average, right? >> yes. >> so it is something that means theoretically human beings could never get to that place? >> we could never see enough data. it would take us, i don't know how long? thousands and thousands of years to see as much as gpt has seen. we can't do it in a lifetime.

>> and that is one level exhilarating to think of the extraordinary power that this computer will have. but worry. >> it is worrying. because we don't know any examples of more intelligent things being controlled by less intelligent things. with human societies, you have dictators who aren't as intelligent as the peasants but that is not a big difference. they're in the same league. but here this these things will get much more intelligent than us. and the worry is can we keep them working for us when they're much more intelligent than us? they will for example learn how to deceive. they'll be able to deceive us if they want to. >> stay with us. when we come back, more with geoffrey hinton. use it to set and trtrack your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make t today... could help put them within reach.

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we are back here on "gps"

with geoffrey hinton, the so-called godfather of artificial intelligence who will explain his concerns about ai. so when you think about the concerns about ai, how would you describe them very simply to somebody? what is it that you worry about? >> so, i would distinguish a bunch of different concerns. it is what he call the existential threat which is about whether they will wipe out humanity. that is a threat to humanity existence. the other threats aren't existential. they're very bad. like they'll make a lot of jobs much more efficient by getting -- to do it instead of people. and the big worry that huge increase in productivity, should be good for us. it will cause the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer and that is very bad tor society. then there are things like

battle robots. where obviously defense departments would like to have robots that replace soldiers. that is going to make it politically much easier to start wars. there is fake news where it is going to be very hard to know what is true and the division floor these warring camps by the big companies trying to get you to click on stuff that will make you indignant. >> and so these are the small problems. >> those are the small problems. the more immediate and they're not small problems at all, they are huge problems but they don't involve the end of humanity. so i don't call them existential. and then there is the problem, if these things get smarter than us, which i believe they will, in many areas believe they will and not to long, like not in a hundred years. so, i wish we had a simple

solution. for climate change, you stop burning carbon and it will take a while but you'll end up okay and it is politically unpalatable for the oil companies but if you stop burning carbon, you solve the problem. here there isn't anything like that that i know of. the best people could come up with, i think, is that you try and give these things strong ethics. the one advantage that we have is that they didn't evolve. we made them. we evolved and we evolved in small warring tribes of harmonies. we wiped out 21 other different species because we're very competitive and aggressive and these things don't have to be like that. we're creating them. maybe we could build them with strong ethical principals. >> and you could do that with the algorithm. when you asked chatgpt a question say about homosexuality, it gives a answer

curated in a way to be thoughtful, to be, you know, not to reflect every crazy view about it. but kind of -- politically correct may be too strong but it is a sensitive answer. >> yes. >> so there is some shaping that takes place. if you ask it how do you build a nuclear weapon, it said i won't tell you that. >> but if you've ever written a computer program and if it is trying to do the wrong thing and you try to do the right thing by putting guardrails around it, it is a losing proposition. because you might think in any way this might go wrong. you should say i'll always follow these principles but it is hard because defense departments want robots that will kill people. and that is conflicting with ethical principles. there is one piece of good news. with nuclear weapons they were an existential threat and even during the cold war, russia and the united states could

cooperate on trying to prevent a nuclear war, because it was clearly bad for both of them. and with this existential threat, and all of the other threats but with the existential threat, if you take the u.s. and china and europe and japan and so on, they should all be able to agree, we don't want them to wipe us out. and so maybe you could get cooperation on that. >> and you could put some kind of guardrails in or ethical principles in around that. >> yes. that is our hope. we don't know if we could make that work, though. >> ware you going to be spendin time on solving this problem? >> i think i'm too old to solve new problems. i've done my -- i've done my bit of solving problems. i will help. but i'm planning to retire. >> you leave us -- that doesn't -- you leave humanity in a lurch? >> yeah, it doesn't sound good, does it. >> well maybe your students are -- >> my students are very capable. and many of the people that i work with, are working on this.

>> all right. well on that slender read, we'll have to close this out. such a pleasure. >> thank you. next on "gps", the first ever sitdown interview with ajay banja in his new role as the president of the world bank. how will the former mastercard ceo foster global cooperation in a newly tense geopolitical landscape? i will ask him just that when we come back. - excuse me? do the reseaearch, todd. - listen to me. kayak searches hundreds of travevel sites to find yoyou great deals on flights, cars and hotels. - they're lying to you. - who's they? kayak? - arr! - open your eyes! - compare hundreds of travel sites at once. kayak. search one and done. -that's it? -yeah. progressive's homequote explorer makes it easy to compare home insurance options. man...i told my wife i'd be in here for hours.

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the world bank. he joins the bank from the private sector. he was priueviously the ceo of bank card. the first stops are purru and jamaica when he will visit directly after this interview which is his first television interview as head of the bank. ajay banja, welcome to the program. honored to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. >> so, one more complication it seems to me in addition to all of the challenges you face, is that the defining reality right now is the largest economy in the world and the second largest economy in the world. does that kind of geopolitical tension make it more difficult for you at the bank because of the end of the day, of the americans and the chinese don't agree on things you get paralyzed. >> fareed, there is no doubt that multi-latterism is in a very different place today than

it was years ago and that has to impact any institution like ours. but i made one thing clear to our team and to our board. we're in the business of trying to eliminate poverty on a liveable planet and i understand that is our first task and so while politics is important, we really don't have the time in our institution to get stopped by that. we have to find the things in common that could work on. and i spent time in beijing during my nomination and speak with the finance minister of china and we talked about where things could be worked in common. health care and pandemics and climate. these are ing thises that cut across boundaries and borders. if we look at the skies in washington, d.c. and new york in the last few days, the smog we have came from a friendly border. so we have to understand that there are things that we feed to work together on and that is what we'll have to do. >> a lot of people wondering whether china is willing to play in the multi-lateral system or trying to replace it or -- in

your discussions in beijing, how do you characterize china's sort of aims and goals? >> i think every country plays in the multi-lateral system but also does things bilaterally and things directly as fits their own national interest. china is doing the same thing. the question is their expertise, their capability and how they deal with a difficult situation, have you learned all they need to do to set the kind of example that we think a large player in the world economy should be doing. that is where the criticism is coming from. i think every country does something bilaterally and multi-laterally. and my experience thus far is that they're willing engage with us in the institution at the world bank pretty clearly on these two or three topics that i talked about. >> so your big challenge it seems to me, and this is something that i think most people don't realize, but after 20 or 30 years of eliminating large amounts of poverty, largely because of the rise of china and india, the pandemic

and now the food crisis produced by the ukraine war have pushed maybe 100, maybe 150 million people back into poverty. at this point, is there a simple solution to that? is it large scale debt forgiveness for all of the countries all around the world that have had this double-whammy. >> it is more than just debt. debt is an extra complication, but at the end of the day, over the last three or four decades, the growth of the fight against poverty benefits principally by the creation of jobs and the best way to fight poverty is to give a person a job. both for their economic growth but also their sense of dignity of the sense of independent and we should not forget that. it is not the handout that makes the biggest difference to generations. that got set back. yes, by ukraine an the war. yes, by the circumstances of other fragility and refugees in

central africa, in central america and in syria for years, all of those. but also by climate change. if you don't get rainfall in a year sh you go from two crops to one. when you go to one, you get rid of the cattle that gave you dairy and income and you no longer have dairy income and you can't afford the labor on your farm? what you do do then? you bring your kids back out of school to work on the farm. all of the gains to get out of the farm to school for a better life, got turned back in four years. these are things going on in the intertwined crisis which people call poly crisis. so i don't think there is one solution that will solve it, like let's get debt fixed. which is why i feel time is of the heessence. trying to pass them into individual units hoping one magic bullet will fix it. that is not going top had a. >> stay with us. because when we come back, i

want to talk about climate change. four countries need trillions of dollars to tackle the challenges posed by climate, how could the central bank shore up that money. i will ask the new president ajayay banja when we come back. i brought in ensure max protein with 30g of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uh... here'll take that. -everyone: woo hoo! enre max protein with 30 grams of protein, one gram of sugar. enter the nourishing moments giveay for a chance to win $10,000. psoriasis really messes with you. try. hope. fail. no one should suffer like that. i started cosentyx®.

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and we're back with the new president of world bank, ajay banja. and his first television interview since you took on the job. ajay, when you look at this issue of climate change and you hear the pro posals which we've all heard, the numbers are trillions of dollars. even the world bank doesn't have that kind of money. how are you going to get it? >> i think the estimates are trillions of dollars. clearly government money, philanthropy and people like the bank, we cannot add up to those

numbers. although there is an exercise under way in the bank as part of th the evolution of gender to see what we could do with the balance sheet to extract more from it and there is more interest if governments and philanthropies over time. that still doesn't do it. we're talking tens of billions not trillions in this effort so the only way is to find a way to get the private sector to believe this is part of their future. the truth is that renewable today is cheaper per unit than fossil fuel thanks to what has happened in the last three or four years on technology both of generation, but also of storage. and that is only going to keep improving. so there is a pathway. but that pathway seems to lead to the developed world currently because of the kinds of ricks that people perceive in some of the emerging markets. but i think we have to sit with people and who invest in it. understand what holds them back and find ways in the mdb system to think of a different playbook

that take on the risks but they have to understand the risks they're take on and that is what we could do with informed risk taking. that is itself is what i'm looking at. >> when i talk to people in india, for example, there is still a lot of -- of the thinking which is you guys in the west, you polluted the world and you industrialized. we have to get our people out of poverty. we don't have time to think about climate change. what you go say to them? >> there is no doubt that access to electricity is one of the first starting points of social and economic development. in every country. and think therefore that is a real challenge for them to work on. the problem is, if what we go through is the same energy intensive energy and emissions intensive growth moral that we've had, i think the world does not have a hope of getting to the right place by 2050 so we have to create a transition plan

for what we want to get to and there is a number of countries participating in that idea. it is the indonesia, it is in vietnam, it is in south africa, it is in india. there is opportunities here to consider a transition from coal to natural gas to renewable electricity. >> so you're going to go on this world tour and listen to people talk. one of the things that i think in the third world in the developing world or whatever you want to call it, the nonwestern world, there is a feeling that the president of the world bank should be not an american, not an american former ceo, but should be from there. what are you going to say to them? >> well my view is that actually i bring a whole diverse point of view. if what you want it diversity at the top, that comes from your experiences and your back ground as much as from your ethnicity and your gender and i think i bring some of that. i grew up in india and studied

why india and as prime minister modi would say i'm made in india and i've worked in both the developing world and the developed world. i think the u.s. should get credit for thinking of how having someone of nonconventional background like me represent the opportunity to be part of this institution. >> and when you go on this tour, what are you looking -- what are you hoping to achieve. >> two or three things, fareed. i want to partner with others. some traveling with the head of the e lon has a way of demonstrating we'll work together. we need so much to be done. we need all shoulders at the wheel, what we don't need is silos in this effort. secondly i'm going to try to meet these governments, jamaica has never had a world bank president visit them. i think an island nation dealing with climate crisis and economic crises deserves the aengttentios

well and meet the political system and some private sector and ben feficiaries to get arou what sts that makes us who we are and what more do we need to do. there is nothing to beat the value of on the ground knowledge that you pick up when you travel. >> and when you look at, you have a very successful tenure as mastercard ceo, i think the stock soared under your ceo-ship. what are the biggest difference? are you ready for a world in which you have all of bosses, all of the nations will tell you what to do and deal with the politics of it all. you don't have to deal with that at mastercard. you do that and they snap their heels. >> at my age, i don't want to be an arm chair critic. we have real problems in the world. i believe that the arc of humanity and our climate and our people is at a really important

juncture. this is a critical moment. i don't want to be an if arm chair critic. i have a granddaughter. i want her, when i look at her five years from now, i want to be able to say, i tried. that is what i'm trying to do. >> ajay banja, thank you, and thank you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. s and saves on every one! all with an incredible n new iphone. acact now and get iphone 14 pro on us when you switch. it's your verizon. i brought in ensure max protein with 30g of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uh... he i'll take that. -everyone: woo hoo! ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein, enter the nourishing moments veaway for a chance to win $10,000. if your moderate to severe crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms are stopping you in your tracks... choose stelara® from the start... and move toward relief after the first dose...

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