this is "gps, the global

public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new york. ♪ ♪ today on the program -- what is happening inside putin's russia? ♪ is he losing his grip on power? is he at odds with his own commanders? and how might his forces fare against the upcoming ukrainian counter offensive? we will get insight from julia yothi and russian journalist in xy exile. it had averaged almost 10% growth a year and are we now at peak china? the economist kay yujin weighs in. also has humanity gotten, well,

dumber, thanks to the super computers in our pockets that can tell us everything we need to know in an instant. i will talk to the author simon winchester about the past, present and future of knowledge. ♪ ♪ >> but first, here's my take. america's debt ceiling crisis once again provoked the usual comme commentary's shows it's dysfunctional and the truth is this unprovoked madness causing self-inflicted wounds took place against the backdrop of astonishing strength. the facts cannot be disputed. the united states has recovered from the pandemic faster than any major economy in the world, as bloomberg's matthew wifrpg ler recently points out unemployment is stunningly low. gdp has grown at three times the average pace as under donald trump. real incomes are rising. manufacturing is booming and

inflation has now eased for ten straight months. even the budget deficit which was at 15.6% of gdp at the end of the trump presidency dropped to 5.5% of gdp at the end of this year and the picture is better when viewed more broadly. the u.s. remains the world's leader in business especially in cutting-edge technology. scholar sean stars and stephen brooks found that looking at the globe's stock 2,000 companies chinese came in first in shares of global profit in only 11% of sectors. american firms are ranke at artificial shape every industry. american companies like open ai, microsoft and google produce the best applicaa host of other new start-ups are surging forward.

as sharpe points out in a foreign affairs essay, at the top 15 institutions publishing deep learning research, 13 are american universities or corporate labs. only one, qinwai university is chinese. american papers are cited 70% more often. these american advantages are likely to grow dramatically now that china has been blocked from the advanced trips that are absolutely essential to developing and using ai. we'll consider finance, despite the recent banking crisis, the biggest u.s. banks are now more dominant than they have ever been worldwide. they have passed rigorous stress tefs and built up their capital reserves and as a result they are now better positioned than the european and japanese counterparts and they're saddled with huge govern am debt and can't operate in the open global financial system because that would almost certainly trigger a

massive outflows of funds as people seek to move their money to safer havens. despite efforts to unseed it, the dollar remains the main currency which gives america a financial super power. it is one i'm worrying we are mes using which will trigger exfor thes to replace it, but there is no doubt the dollar reasons supreme. america's rise as an energy powerhouse because of frackiing and it is the world's largest producer of hydrocarbons and as jason bordhoff has noted, america has shipped liquefied natural gas has made it a natural super power able to provide or cut off energy to countries around the world. add to these traditional energy sources, the dramatic ramp-up of green energy thanks to the vast tax credits and incentives in the inflation reduction act and

you have a picture of truly astonishing energy capacity. >> america's military remains in a league of their own, far superior to that of its rivals in china and russia. china is catching up, but american's remains vast across dimensions of warfare. as cory shockey has noted that no u.s. troops is inflicting tremendous dng on russia's army. washington is also transforming the ukrainian army into one of the most powerful armed forces in europe. the great force multiplier of american power remains its allowances and it has more than 50, and the u.s. has 750 military bases of some kind around the world, china has wo, in djibouti. i could go on.

unlike most coinries, america has a cohort that will not shrink and we still take in $1 million on arc. china and russia are facing democratic declines that will put a long-term damper on their growth. could it be that it is precisely because of this backdrop of strength that washington's politicians and the republican party in particular can indulge in this crazy political theater? for most countries, the price of playing games with one's credit worthiness would be sharp and severe and that would act as a disciplining mechanism, but in washington, this country's basic strength has become a license for irresponsibility. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪

in an interview with the russian war blogger made public this week the head of russia's mercenary wagner group yevgeny prigozhin had this word for the elite, unless they gave up their charmed lives and pitched in on the war effort the current moment in the country could end up looking like 1917. he was warning, in other words, of a second russian revolution. it was just the latest of a series of alarming critiques that prigozhin has launched at the russian establishment including the current defense minister and even implicitly putin himself. we know about putin's complete unwillingness to break any opposition so why allow prigozhin such open tirades and what does it tell us about dommest being politics in russia at the moment in this war? joining me now to talk about all

this andrei soldatov and julia yafi. andrei is a russian investigative journalist living in exile, of course, in london and julia is a founding partner and russia correspondent at pak news. >> julia, give us an overview from what you can tell, are we overdoing it? in all this reading of tea leaves and looking at the fact that putin doesn't discipline prigozhin or the defense minister or allows this all to happen and there's more going on underneath the surface than we think? what's your basic read? there is more under the surface and one where andrei has been forced to leave and there's very little reporting on the ground and it's hard to tell what's going on and it's important to know what's going on when russia

is waging this bloody, criminal war in ukraine and using people like prigozhin in the east and it's important to understand what's going on and when you have not a lot of information all you can do is read tea leaves and try to decipher the few public statements that these people make. >> andrei, describe for us, your answer to this question. what is going on? because you have a wonderful foreign affairs essay where you make some very informed speculation. >> the problem with prigozhin is that he's making all of these attacks and he's been attacking some military and now it seems to be next level and his attack of the russian erck elites and their kids and it is com plately out of line and at the same time it's quite interesting that putin chooses to tolerate

prigozhin, and i think this is because putin doesn't have a real system of check and balances so he needs, specially with this war, he needs to rely on some completely unorthodox methods to keep his people, the military generals and his elites, if not under control, but a list of balance. prigozhin, who is happy to play the role of weak jester, while he is happy to provide putin with this option. so he's attacking these people sending a message that, look, you cannot be completely safe and nobody has any guarantees in this new russian system which is russia in 2023. >> so, julia, if -- if this is the sort of war we're looking at in russia, is russia different from what we thought or have

things changed in the sense? >> we always thought putin was in control and the russian state was a tightly knit operation and the fsb and such were in complete control and the defense ministry in the army saluted. does this suggest that it's not, you know, that it's not that vertical of power as we used to think? >> i think that putin was very much in control of the security forces and we're very much in control, but as with anything in russia there are exceptions and those exceptions are corruption, stupidity, malfeasance, stupidity, i said that one twice, and it was not always the tight ship that we imagined it to be over here in the west. i do think that to andrei's point once putin started the war and immediately didn't win it on

his terms. he did not take kyiv in the first week. he did not have a victory parade in kyiv. he is still fighting for shreds of land in the east and at this point he needs anything he can throw at it and prigozhin does two things. he delivers the first significant territorial win in the first few months. he delivered bakhmut to puttin and it took him serven e eight, nine months and he did what the government could not do and to andrei's point he keeps the defense ministry in line and he keeps them on their toes and trying to do better. he is the kind of yufrnjunk yar that keeps the elite in line and what happens if the junkyard dog gets off his chain and he has another army and other sources

of income that aren't directly from putin and all of his work in africa and the middle east have permitted him to take various minds, refineries, wells of gas and oil that give him a separate income stream. so he has -- ironically, in a country where putin was trying to eliminate any kind of dissent and any challenges of power which he did from the liberal flank. he allowed a guy with an army to start kcriticizing him which others never had. >> andrei, is this -- is there an only premonition of the fact that the russian army and the security forces are not as united and b, as loyal to putin in these reports that i've read and putin created his own presidential security force which some people say i think it was in 2016, the duma creates the special security force which

its only job is to protect putin and sits in moscow and the russian is not allowed to enter moscow and this feels like a ro roman emperor with the pretorrian guard and does this mean that putin doesn't trust the army. >> it's about his view of the world, and back in the kgb he was taught to view the world in terms of threats. every situation and of course, now he has a big crisis in his life and he's trying to look and to assess how risky it could be for him politically speaking. we are not talking about the battlefield. we are talking about political forces inside the country. vladimir putin was already prominent in the 1990s and he remembers that even the

disastrous chechen war that at some moment both the significant, to putin's predecessor yeltsin. putin understands that. he wants to avoid it and just in case he wants to keep his military in line. he cannot tolerate a proper competition between his security services, so he cannot put his national guard against the army or the fsb against svr because it would be too risky for him, but to use someone like prigozhin who does have some independent income, but at the same time he doesn't have any political vacant apart from the one provided by putin himself. that seems to him to putin that it's a really good idea. while it works for now let's see how it's going to end. >> stay with us. when we come back, i'm going ask

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>> we are back with andrei soldatov from london and julia yoffi correspondent at pak news. julia, you are attending a future of russia conference. what is your sense and what is the general sense of what is going to happen next with this ukrainian counter offensive? it has been, you know, it's been much telegraphed. are the ukrainians going to be able to take back the territory they lost in 2022? >> i think the offensive has become a punchline in washington in the sense that any question you ask any policymaker or anybody in the think tank or on the hill they'll say we have to wait until the ukrainian counter

offensive, clearly something has begun in terms of inshahhing operations like the incursion into belgorod and bakhmut and we are still waiting for the main, vent and i think it's anybody's guess. people are trying to be conservative and judicious in their predictions. people think it will be much more difficult than the fall offensive when ukraine won back kharkiv and kherson, but at this point people in the west say, washington, at least, that in washington say that ukraine has what it needs and they're waiting to see what happens. >> what's your gut? >> my gut is that ukraine overperforms as usual, but that it won't be quite enough, you know, for the russian army to collapse and for them to fully win this war. i worry that putin is willing to throw as much fodder at the meat grinder as he wants, and that

he's waiting for the elections in the u.s. for a desantis or a trump to win in 2024 for republicans to retake more power on the hill and that western aid will dry up and that he will wait this out the way that russians tend to win wars. they mess up in the beginning and lose a lot of lives, but time does work for them. >> andrei, what is your sense? one of the things you do hear often is whether russians do have more, you know, more resources. it's a much bigger country, much larger population. putin can throw more troops into this meat grinder. what's your perspective when looking at it and you think about this question of, are the ukrainians going to do well and are the russians so dug in in parts of donbas since 2014. so for over ten years.

will the ukrainians be able to push back? >> yeah. it's a very good question. >> we know that the russian army will build against the counter offensive and we do know that of course, russia trained its troops and it looks like they're in better shape than before. at the same time what is absolutely clear is that lots of people in moscow, they're very nervous about this counter offensive, and it looks like it's smmore than just a counter offensive. we might remember that putin might avoid to start a new weapon mobilization because he believes that with this new mobilization marks creates a very fragile situation for him politically in the country and its up to them say a ukrainian

counter offensive which he would have no choice to stop mobilization and political risks for them would be different from what he has now. >> andrei, keep up your reporting which has been absolutely fantastic. julia always great to hear your perspective. you enlighten us both. >> trade is dependent a large part on the world's second largest economy, china, but my next guest says we don't really understand china's economy and she will explain it to us when we come back. cutting edge innovation... ( ♪ ) ...and thoughtful details... ...inspired by you. ( ♪ ) from the brand that delivers amazing ownership experiences, this is the first ever, all electric, rz. this is lexus, electrified.

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with demographic challenges, political missteps international competition is china's economy about to peak? that was the question posed in a recent issue of "the economist." here to help answer it is kay yugin, professor at the london school of economics who has just released beyond socialism and capitalism. kay, welcome. the big surprise which i think has given some of these predictions for us, the big surprise economically this year has been the chinese economy has

not recovered as fast as many people were expecting. why do you think that is? >> well, china has the opposite problem to the u.s. which is a lack of demand especially in private sector demand and we have to ask why. the main reason is a severe loss of confidence built over the years in the pandemic and greater uncertainy and more than ten years ago the state can come on team china and cap it will and build roads and the gdp would go up and they have to do the heavy lifting and their confidence is not back. >> what do they say to the cover story and you know what the argument is fundamentally about demographics and you're not going to get as much innovation with the state in charge. you have all of these international challenges cutting off of supply chains so china is not predicting a collapse at

all, but a kind of plateau that china will muddle along where it is now. >> if china manages to grow 5 points it will be the world's largest economy in a little over ten years and let's not estimate that 600 million people still in china with less than $3 hun of monthly income. they will be a huge boost to the consumption if they reach middle income by international standards. let's not underestimate the whole approach to innovation and not casts -- and not tallying the cost and casting the net wide and all passing industrial chain and the proximity between companies and chip industries and the huge market and enterprising people. these are major forces and look, if demographics didn't explain it going on the way up and it won't explain it downward. >> to you, it seems like in the book, the biggest misconception people have is they look at

china and they assume that you have economic centralization when you're saying, you have the economy run by hundreds and hundred of mayors and they're very market friendly. >> yes. exactly. if you don't understand how that model works you're not going to understand china and you're not going to know where china is going and it's dominated by an almighty state that determines everything. we need to look at what's happening on the ground and the local mayors combined with the entrepreneurs and galvanizing innovation and if you look at it distributed and it's not just -- and it's in the second tier sec secondes like wuhan and they're working with hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurs and not just supporting one or two national champions. >> the u.s. has made a very concerted effort to codeny chin at ability to access the very

highest end computer chips which are the heart of a lot of advanced military technology and also ai and quantum computing. what will be the effect of that ban. >> there will be a lot of big damage to companies in china, but we have to understand that for every action there is a reaction and there are unexpected outcomes and now we have all of this demand which is formerly going to american companies and redirected back to chinese chip companies and we'll stay flushing them with capital and more importantly, china has a self-imposed industrial supply chain which means the proximity of the downstream players and autonomous vehicles and their proximity gets this very quick feedback loop and demand and if we look at japan, was the ride of the japanese electronics companies and they were in close proximity and you can imagine the chip company in the u.s. and

the u.s., that's not actually going to work. >> what you're saying is that this ban might be in the medium term of accelerating, china's defense and chip industry -- it has already done so and there are so many companies trying to come up with new chip designs just to circumvent these rules and it's also -- it's almost a strategic gift, but we have to understand the short run many companies will have to suffer. >> your basic message is don't count china out. >> exactly. >> great to have you on. >> next on gps, from petroglyphs to papyrus to printing presses to a phone in everyone's pocket, all about the evolution of knowledge and how we pass it down. we will be back with that in a moment. that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more...

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intentional applications, chatgpt humans have become dependent on bits and bites of silicon ships for knowledge. at one point in time we used maps and the stars to navigate and spent days seeking information that is now at our fingertips, so what effect are modern advancements having on our brain? and in a world where knowledge is so much more findable and fleeting, what is its value? my next guest simon winchester asked these questions and more in his new book knowing what we know, the transmission of knowledge from ancient wisdom to modern magic. simon, what a pleasure. >> thank you very much. lovely to be back with you. >> so when do you think we first begin to realize that we have this thing called knowledge that we are trying to pass on? >> i think the beginning was in mesopotamia, really. of course, it's relatively more easy for us to know when all of

this transmission began if there are written documents to display it. i think that once the language began south of baghdad, then we can tell about lessons, about the teaching of things that happened. and so the first school in the town called dnipro which show children learning thing, and taught things and interestingly enough writing them all with their little sharpened quills on tab'lls of euphrates mud and then getting it wrong and then throwing that tablet away and the next morning another child being asked to get water from the euphrates turning this broken piece of pottery back into mud and drying it on the bread oven and using it again. they were not only learning thing, but they were being sustainable from day one. so it's a magical story on several levels. >> and do you think, at some point there is a kind of

recognition that this is -- that the important bodies of knowledge to pass on and therefore the writing is done for poft ofity? >> very much so, and si think that's particularly noticeable among the greeks. they may well have been noticeable among mesopotamians, with socrates first and plato and then aristotle and then they came to grips with it and thought a, we have to pass this on and he came up with this still extent today, it's true belief. i believe you to be a man. i know you're a man, but you're fareed zakaria, i'm pretty sure there is a picture of fareed that justifies my belief. you, therefore, i know i have the knowledge of who you are. >> it's provable. >> provable, justifiable. my belief because the difference between belief and knowledge is particularly when we get to

chur churchley matters is profound any very serious and that's why a large number of people in this country still believe that the earth was formed in 4034 b.c. at 9:30 in the morning and no justification for that, but belief is still a powerful beast. >> so now i come to the explosion of knowledge, and the explosion -- let's first deal with stuff like google and wikipedia. it seems to me that there's a much larger change than we've actually incorporated which is we know everything in the sense that we can get access to it, and i wonder about this now when i watch my kids at school, why are we teaching so many facts when the facts are all -- >> available. >> -- easily available? >> that's a hugely important question. remember kyle popper's famous victim that knowledge is finite, but ignorance is infinite is an awful lot more to know that we

have no idea about, but yes, i think the point you make is a very valuable one. yes, i can find out with the capital of south dakota and even its pronunz sitciation, and the enlightenment and the reformation, but do i really need to know these things? aristotle didn't know them and plato didn't know them and socrates didn't know them and they knew the road of humanity and lay a temperalate of perhap how we should behave. aristotle thought about wenning happiness not through pleasure, but through achievement and doing the right thing and that may not sound like too profound a thought now more than what you hear from the pulpit, but nonetheless, it was thought about and put down on paper or

vellum or parchment by someone who had no idea of the capital of south dakota or the name of the senator in new york or whatever. >> more broadly, do you worry that -- that the fact that we can know everything is making us dumber? >> no. i thought initially -- i think when i started writing this book i think that was the premise is everything that began with the invention of the electronic calculator by a man called jerry merriman, wonderful name, in 196 1k37 7, and that began the rant and we did not need to know how to calculate, how to spell how to find out where we were and how to know anything and initially i thought it would make us dumber and it's made us fatter and flabbier and the mental ones, would they make our brains dumber? i mean, the ultimate question is would it remove the possibility of wisdom from society because

wisdom is a lot of knowledge with a lot of age, old, wise people. we need them in society, but then i thought, well, wait a minute. maybe what all these devices are doing is actually perjing our brains of the stuff we don't need because with great respect to the people of south dakota we don't need to know if the capital is pierre and not pier and it's like hold will the brain under a cold tap, and leaving us like plato and enabling us to think about the importantance things in life. i'm quite optimistic about chatgpt for, i'm not so sure. mercifully we got some of it into the book, but it's happening so fast, wait for the paperback. >> every potential plato is us.

>> a pleasure to have you on. >> pleasure undeed. >> obesity is up worldwide and this time not in the form of a diet fad or exercise craze. that story when we come back. ♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

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now for the last look. everybody i know is on it, a reality tv star told "the wall street journal." it's the drug of choice for the 1%, a dermatologist said to "the new york times." they are talking about the active ingredient in two medications flying off pharmacists' shelves. the first, ozempic came on the scene in 2017 as a diabetes treatment. the patients reported losing significant weight. rather than include the reaction as a side effect, the maker turned it into a lucrative

selling point. >> you may lose weight. >> by 2021, the drugmaker started selling a weight loss specific dose of it aimed at treating obese and overweight adults. early results seem remarkable. company-sponsored studies indicated those using it can expect to lose 15% of their body weight after nearly a year and a half of treatment. as users celebrate their slimmer weigh waistlines, they are eye ing bi profits. after all, diet and weight loss is big business. americans spend $76 billion last year alone trying to shed pounds.

behind all the fads lies a stark reality. today, obesity is at an all time high. more than 40% of american adults are obese. it's a major gateway illness. the conditions and complications caused by obesity put huge strains on america's health systems and its economy, with. in 2018, obesity costs united states $1.39 trillion, or nearly 7% of that year's gdp. obesity is not just a problem in the first world. rates are raising in middle income and poor countries as well. by 2035, nearly half of the adult populations of mexico, iran, south africa and algeria will all be obese.

these drugs could improve the health of billions and make the world wealthier. >> you look thin. >> thank you. >> ozempic? >> yes. >> they have got ten so popular that everyone is talking about them. ads have been plastered around the new york city subway. people from hollywood to the hamptons are rumored to be using them. how do the drugs work? their mechanism of action is not known. they are believes to regulate blood sugar levels and imitate a hormone to signal to brains that they feel full. they may slow the movement of food through the stomach. some scientists are studying the possibility that these injections could quell more than just food cravings.

many users experienced a decrease in alcohol use, smoking, shopping and even nail biting while taking the drugs. scientists do not have a complete picture as to why these behaviors change in some people, but early reports suggest that it could be due to the drug's impact on the brain's reward pathways. addiction researchers have taken note. these drugs could be a real game changer. there's still a lot left to learn about how they work and what kind of long-term impact they may have. >> serious side effects may -- >> they come with an increased risk of pancreatitis, gallstones and renal failure, according to the prescribing information. use of the drug in rodents during clinical trials led to an increase in thyroid cancer. of course, these are risks that may be worth it for those suffering from serious medical conditions like obesity. may not be for people just looking to have beach-ready

bodies by summer. the shots don't address the underlying drivers of america's obesity. they may use obesity as a disease, but attention should be given to prevention. government policy should encourage easier access to affordable and fresh produce and high quality proteins as well as wind down farm sub sidies that made artificial sweeteners ubiquitous in american diets. how people brag about them, some specialists worry casual use could put more people at risk of developing an eating disorder. the arrival has intensified the fixation with being thin online, as social media influencers help drive the conversation toward unrealistic beauty standards. the bottom line is that this is a good news story.

the new class of drugs shows great promise in our battle against the bulge. it may be transformative in the fight against obesity. but it's important to proceed with caution and to remember that our vanity is easily exploited. thanks for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. check. psych! and i'm about to steal this game from you just like i stole kelly carter in high school. you got no game dude, that's a foul! and now you're ready to settle the score. game over. and if you don't have the right home insurance coverage, well, you could end up paying for all this yourself. so get allstate, and be better protected from mayhem, yeah, like me. thanks, bro. take a lap, rookie. real mature.

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thank you for joining me this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield. breaking news out of washington. moments ago, president b