the light stage craft in mexico. >> we didn't discuss payment of the wall. >> a blunt message about the border. >> they don't know it yet, but they're going to fpay for the wall. >> his tough immigration talk. will it help or hurt in the final stretch. i suppose some of you have never voted for a democrat before. >> trump takes his african-american pitch to detroit. >> i believe we need a civil rights agenda for our time. >> and it's labor day weekend. >> i know some of you are mad at hillary. she gets it. and she never yields. she does not break. >> blue-collar voters are key in several big battleground.

"inside politics." the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters, now. welcome to "inside politics," i'm john king. thank you for sharing your sunday morning. as we mark labor day and the two-month dash to election day. one, does donald trump have any prospect of boosting his support with african-americans or are efforts like his trip yesterday to visit detroit too little, too late. >> we're all brothers and sisters, and we're all created by the same god. now in these hard times for our country, let us turn again to our christian heritage to lift up the soul of our nation. >> question two. will trump's decision to stay hard-line on immigration help as it did in the primaries or backfiback fire as a general election message. >> there will be no amnesty. our message to the world will be this. you cannot obtain legal status

or become a citizen of the united states by illegally entering our country. can't do it. >> question three. what should we take away from newly released documents from the fbi as hillary clinton e-mail investigation. >> government access and favors will no longer be for sale. and important e-mail records will no longer be deleted. with us to share their reporting and insights. ashley parker of the "new york times," dan balz of the "washington post," cnn's sara murray and abby phillip of the "washington post." there was hard-liners in the trump impan who will tell you they believe their candidate won the election this week by sticking to tough talk on the signature issue. some democrats just as convinced that with that speech he sealed his defeat. finding out who is right. most of what trump outlined at his immigration rally sounded tough and unequivocal.

>> we will build a great wall along the southern border. and mexico will pay for the wall. zero tolerance for criminal aliens. zero. zero. day one, my first hour in office, those people are gone! >> there was a lot of tough talk like that. a lot more. but there was also a mixed message on the question that has sdra derailed political progress on immigration for years. the question, what to do with the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the united states. trump had tough talk for them too. >> for those here illegally today who are seeking legal status, they will have one route and one route only. to return home and apply for reentry like everybody else. >> that sounded pretty clear. but then trump created some giant wiggle room. >> in several years, when we

have accomplished all of our enforcement and deportation goals and truly ended illegal immigration for good, then and only then, will we be in a position to consider the appropriate disposition of those individuals who remain. >> so help me here. the tone was really tough, but if you listen to the last part, after we have accomplished border security -- in his view, building the wall. a lot of people in congress say it will never happen. deporting the bad guys as he puts it, the criminals. only then. is he saying essentially in a second trump term or the president who comes after donald trump would deal with the 11 million? is that what he is saying? >> it is sort of hard to know precisely what he is saying about that 11 million. that's an issue that's bedevilled not just him but the key issue for the senate gang of eight. in speeches like this it's not

just what you say and your actual policy but the tone of it. that was a very ferocious speech. even if there is a little bit of wiggle room that after he deports the criminals and sends a lot of people back and builds the beautiful wall that maybe then he would look at the group that's not very reassuring to hispanics and even some of the moderate republicans who want to vote for him but who don't want to feel like they're supporting a bigot. >> some inside the campaign were saying this week, we won the election. he stuck here. we were worried he would shift and go soft. they believe the rust belt states. white working class, that this is what those voters want to hear. >> i think they do. i think they believe the combination of the trip to mexico and the speech was a home run for them. now, we'll wait and see on that. there were certainly some members of his hispanic advisory committee who took a different view of what the speech was saying and were alarmed by the rhetoric of that. i don't know how you can be both hard-line and soft-line at the same time. i think the issue for donald

trump, and this goes beyond, frankly, the immigration issue, and exactly what does he believe, what does he stand for, what are his policies. he's been flexible enough, if you want to be charitable or insincere enough, if you don't want to be, that we don't know where he stands on the issues. ashley is right. the tone of the speech, put aside the specifics of the rhetoric, the tone was very, very, very tough. >> to the point that there has been a lot of reporting that the chairman of the republican national committee was prepared to issue praise of trump thinking he would get a more conciliatory or more open-armed speech and then decided in the end never mind and they were dead silent. >> not just the yrnc. a number of hispanic republicans were looking for an opportunity to get on board. they've had a fraught relationship with trump but they wanted a reason to support him. when you look at this moment in the campaign, this is supposed to be the period where you are broadening your tent of supporters. donald trump going out there and giving a hard-line immigration

speech -- show me the voters you add by doing something like that. we're talking about trying not to lose people in your base. but that's not how you win an election. you need to broaden your support, build coalitions. you talk to republicans as i have over the last few days and they're saying trump is not doing that and we're getting to the point where it may be too late for him to do that successfully. >> the clinton campaign put out a tweet, hillary clinton, trump just failed his first foreign policy test. diplomacy is not as easy as it looks. tim kaine said, donald trump went south of the border, met with the mexican president. trump says he is not the president yet and it was a get-to-know-you meeting. he said he didn't bring up the issue of paying for the wall in the meeting. tim kaine says that's blinking. >> he has been talking nonstop since the beginning of this campaign, we're going to build a wall. we're going to make mexico pay for it. but when he sat down and he looked president pena nieto in

the eye he didn't have the guts to bring it up. he choked, he caved. he lost his confidence, he lost his will. he couldn't be honest with that person. >> that's their take. donald trump says i am just meeting this guy for the first time. that's for a later date. >> i think what really hurt trump with that visit to mexico was the moment when he was asked did you bring up the wall, did you ask mexico to pay for it and he said that it didn't come up, and then later he was contradicted by the mexican president. i think that was the moment that i think he opened himself up to being hurt politically by this. it sort of played into the hand of the clinton campaign, who have been saying for months that donald trump can't tell the truth and that he is unprepared to deal with diplomatic situations like the one that he found himself in. you know. i think this whole situation with immigration is a case of trump's advisors believing that, if he says the same thing maybe in a more diplomatic way or a less free-wheeling way that it will come across differently to voters. that's very challenging because

that's baked in. i think at this point, where he currently stands with latino voters and with suburban voters is a product of the things that he has said over the last several months. and changing that will take more than just tone. >> and yet, if you talk -- again, if you talk to the trump campaign they think just the photo of him standing there with the mexican president, diplomatic stage craft, that he would go south of the border, that he could have such a meeting, they think we're in washington. we talk about this stuff nonstop. to the average voter, there he is standing there looking like a president. looking like a head of state. >> what i would say about that is for trump the bar is actually so low to appear presidential that just by sort of remaining fully upright next to the mexican president and not offending huge swaths of the population earned him rave reviews. i think that will be a bit of a challenge for hillary clinton during the debate. the bar is so low. if you can stand there and

present a baseline level of competency, that can be a great success for him. >> we'll see if he can do it in the debates. we've never seen trump in a o one-on-one debate. a lot of voters do take offense that people who break the law to enter the united states should be able to stay, that you should have a path to citizenship. trump says the democrats don't like to talk about they are plans. can he make the case maybe you think i'm too tough but they're too soft. >> i think he can try to make the case but it's not an easy case to make as sara said beyond the base that's already with him. i think people who are not yet with him are looking for some more compassion and generosity on his part. a greater sense of a willingness to reach out. so far we've seen it only in fits and starts. >> imagine that speech if there had been a rift during it in which he softened his tone, in which he said his heart breaks for people who have called the country home for a decade, just

spent a minute trying to say some of the other things he'd said in the last few weeks and show a bit of compassion for 11 million undocumented people even in his plan is to send them home or to leave open the window. it maight have had a different effect. none of that language that he waffled on was in the speech. >> we're 65 days from the election, after the last election which the republicans for the second time in the row lost two-thirds of the latino vote. reince priebus commissioned a study which said we mes embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. if we don't the party will shrink to the core constituencies. he is now obviously disappointed with donald trump but they are april sending into the general election the exact opposite of what they said after their last loss they had to do. >> i think, to be fair, the party changed out from under

that report. so, in reality, the party -- the party as a whole probably is not where that report is at this point. and we saw that play out with the gang of eight, and we saw it play out during the primaries. in that sense that report is kind of ancient history. we'll have to see where the party is after this election. >> the establishment says that. but the grass roots says essentially, you say up, we say down. that's how that one is played. sit tight. up next trump's first up close african-american outreach and the hard reality of his challenge. first, donald trump adds a big name to his deportation list. >> within i.c.e., i am going to create a new special deportation task force focused on identifying and quickly removing the most dangerous criminal illegal immigrants in america who have evaded justice just like hillary clinton has evaded justice. okay. maybe they'll be able to deport

her.

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welcome back. it shouldn't be breaking news that a republican nominee for president is visiting a black church in a major american city but it is, sadly. all the more so when that candidate is donald trump who remember five years ago was chief cheerleader for those insisting our first african-american president was born in kenya. no surprise. protests outside as trump visited great faith ministries in detroit. [ no trump ] >> inside trump swaying along as the choir sang. ♪ >> he told the congregation he

was satened ddened to see the shuddered businesses in the community and he told them he is there to listen. >> our nation is too divided. we talk past each other, not to each other and those who seek office do not do enough to step into the community and learn what is going on. they don't know. they have no clue. >> he was criticized first when he did african-american outreach before largely white audiences. now democrats are saying after this event yesterday, too little, too late, nice try. >> i think it is kind of late for anybody to be doing this sort of thing. but at the same time, if you look at the images that came out of that day, i think it probably couldn't have gone better for trump. he read the things he was supposed to read. he held a baby. he swayed. they prayed over him. that's what's supposed to happen when you do that sort of thing. the problem is that african-american voters will, i

think, by and large -- there are always some, but by and large they will have a hard time sort of forgetting the past, forgetting the recent past and the distant past, including some of the things this very year when donald trump seemed to not know anything about the kkk. these are things that are very visceral for this community. they are willing to give people a chance, but i think that two months before the election is quite late. >> i think the community will hear a lot of that on the radio and on television from the clinton campaign. my biggest question is the turnout in numbers, whether there is intensity for her and you get the turnout in numbers in the first post-obama presidential election. you mentioned the hill is steep. all the polls show this, a poll among black voters this week. clinton 92, trump 4. that's below mitt romney territory. that's weak. among voters, they asked is donald trump racist? 83% of african-americans, 61% of hispanics and 37% of whites say donald trump is racist. this is part of why he is doing

this, though, right? to convince not just the african-american community or latino community, i am not -- i think he even said at a meeting in philadelphia, i am not a bigot. is it about increasing his african-american support or is it, as many think, an effort to try to tell white suburbanites, hey, i am trying. >> i think it's both. when you talk to donald trump he does truly believe he should be able to win over african-american voters, he should be able to win over hispanic voters. when he is in the rooms talking to those people he truly believes they should be supporting him. but there is the second, beyond the room audience who are important. they want to vote for trump. they even maybe like some of his policies, bethut they want to h the compassion and think they're not supporting someone who is racist or a bigot, they're supporting someone they can be proud of. >> dan, what's the calculation in the sense of doing the math? what is donald trump looking for with this now this late in the

game? >> i think two things, john. he's trying to increase, even marginally his support in the african-american community and he is trying to increase his support, particularly among college-educated whites. i have a slightly different view of this, or i look at it in some other angle, which is donald trump is going through a series of experiences as a candidate for president that he has never done before. and one of the things that we all know from watching candidates over the years is that campaigns change them even as they are trying to change voters' minds. you have to wonder the combination of his trip to mexico and the trip to the black church in which he put himself in a totally different kind of position, a much more humble position. he was interacting with people he normally doesn't interact with. how is that, if in any way, changing him both as a politician and as a human being. >> it's a great question. part of the issue, sara, is he is up against his own history. some of the things he's said in this campaign and for a lot of

african-americans it was defining in 2011 when donald trump was thinking about running for president he became chief cheerleader for the birther movement, a grum of people who were saying, even as president obama was running for re-election. he had already been president and there were still out those saying he was born in kenya, he is ineligible. donald trump took the charge. >> barack obama should end this. he should provide the public with a birth certificate. and if he doesn't do it, he is doing a tremendous disservice to the public. >> have to see what, you know, perhaps it's going to say hawaii. perhaps it's going to say kenya. >> there's something going on. look, there's something going on. the words -- >> what does that mean, there's something going on? >> there's a lot of bad feeling. >> whenever obama comes up or when there are terrorist attacks he says obama is not tough enough against radical islamic

terrorism and gets into the there is something going on the insinuation obama is soft on terrorism for some reason. >> that's part of the reason that it's so stuns that it hillary clinttook his campaign so long to understand this will be a problem. some were saying why didn't he go to the naacp convention? why has he rejected multiple outreach efforts by the national urban league. when you have this history, you should realize it will be a problem and that you'll need to reach out to the minority community and start early to make the inroads. that seems to be something that caught donald trump and his campaign flat-footed. i think he believed going into the general election fight that he would do better among these groups because of his business record and because, you hear him say, he has employed these minority groups in the past and he thought that would be enough to help him with these communities and it really

hasn't. >> to dan's point, the biggest inflection point coming up is the first debate. to the extent that these visits and the late in the game moves can change donald trump and his orientation toward this campaign, it will show up at that debate. i think hillary clinton has said she is expecting, perhaps, that someone completely different might show up. that there is a donald trump who has been a little bit more measured, a little bit more humbled, might walk out on the stage and present something different to a hundred million people paying attention for the very first time. that's the real challenge for democrats, that perhaps he might actually learn from these experiences and walk out there and be able to kind of convey all of these things that he's had such a hard time learning up until this point. >> three weeks from tomorrow, right? can't wait. stay with us. up next, the fbi releases notes about its hillary clinton e-mail investigation. is it case closed or proof of major judgment laps. the quiz this morning

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welcome back. here is one key passage from the 58 pages about the hillary clinton e-mail investigation the fbi released on friday. quote, clinton did not recall receiving any e-mails she thought should not be on an unclassified system. despite the fact some of the e-mails discussed possible future drone strikes against suspected terrorists. clinton could not recall any briefing or training by state related to the retention of federal records or handling classified information. to the clinton campaign the documents support the decision by the fbi not to seek criminal charges. donald trump, though, says clinton's answers defy believe.

he said after reading the documents i really don't understand how she was able to get away from prosecution. this will come up in the debate three weeks from tomorrow. but it is striking, dan, we've covered the clintons for a long time. she says she is the detail person. she says sometimes, forgive me. i am a nerd, a policy wonk. i love the detail. bill clinton would meet somebody he hadn't seen in 20 years and remember what the guy was eating the last time he saw him. 339 times in the interview she said, i do not recall, i do not recall, i do not recall. >> the other thing we know about the clintons is that they've been through many investigations, many scandals and many situations in which a smart lawyer will say to a client, you know, you don't have to answer that fully. and if you don't recall, you don't recall. and so she went through that process with them, and there's a lot in that, as you say, in which she has an incomplete memory. i think that, you know, the

bottom line on this is that people will take away from it what they already brought to this issue of the e-mails. people -- people have strong views about this. and they're not good for hillary clinton. i don't think this is going to significantly change that. >> you make a key point. not significantly change that. if you think she is dishonest, if you think she is untrustworthy, the cement 45 hardens. if you're for her, you roll your eyes and say i've got to deal with this. >> i think the different discussions we have had about e-mail, pay for play -- we get further in the weeds and it gets more difficult to digest. you come away with the notion that she is untrustworthy but it's a really specific example you get coming out of the reports to say hillary clinton was e-mailing about a covert drone strike operation. everyone knows this is a covert program. to be able to take an example like that onto the debate stage or as a debate moderator and say this is something easy for ev y everyone to understand.

she was e-mailing about drone strikes and didn't think it was a problem from an insecure server. there is more potency in that some some of the other things from her e-mails that have been a little bit harder to understand. >> there is a difference between something that's not criminal and something that's still unacceptable to people. i think that's what these transcripts highlight. maybe there was nothing criminal in there but there was a lot surprising and shocking to voters. i think it will matter because it really, i think, for people, it sort of defies their common sense test. that's a problem. >> this is also a fantastic issue for donald trump. he is someone who has trouble staying on message, but the one message he has really been able to alight on is hillary clinton being dishonest, being untrustworthy, playing by a different set of rules. and every time there is a new sort of drip, drip, drip out of this genre he'll hammer it from

the campaign trail. it's one thing that can focus him in a way that's compelling to voters. >> another aspect to this is fbi director comey who on one hand decided there was not a case to be won and therefore didn't recommend prosecution but in some form or another has clearly been offended by the way she has handled this whole process. he has started with the press conference and continuing with this to push out information that's harmful to her. >> a lot of people think the race is over, the race is baked because of her lead in some battleground states. peter hardy does not believe that. he had a focus group in milwaukee a week or so ago. this jumped out at him. he says their lack of trust about hillary clinton stems from a perception of her lack of openness and transparency. several voters say she comes across as defensive and dismissive when these situations come up.

there w there is no question she has reason to be, you know, to think republicans are out to get her, but there is also no question that she retreats into what even some of her friends call paranoia about these things. >> historically, if you look at bill clinton and hillary clinton, she has been the hard-liner on this. she has been the more resistant. she is the one who has said, no, no, no, we should not give up anything. >> yet her running mate. 275 days since the formal press conference. i think i am in agreement with those at the table. this will change before the debate. she won't go into the debate three weeks from tomorrow and have donald trump says it's been 300 days since you have had a press conference. but in the issue of clinton openness. tim kaine, god bless the people who get to be vice presidential nominees because they have to say things like this. >> i don't see what the massive

difference is between a press conference is and talking to the press everywhere you go. she talks to the press a lot and i've been with her when she has talked to the press. >> can we say, though, that both of these campaigns are horrible at transparency. they like to jab each other on this issue. as journalists we want more questions, more press conferences. we think absolutely that hillary clinton should be taking questions from the press regularly, which she does not do regularly. she does not hold press conferences. but donald trump flew to mexico and left his traveling press corps behind. he doesn't let press approach him. donald trump has a black list of media organizations he doesn't let into his events. neither of the candidates has a leg to stand on when it comes to pointing a finger of transparency at the other. >> here is mike pence on another sunday show this morning saying, i am going to release my taxes in the weeks ahead, and --

>> donald trump and i are both going to release our tax returns. i'll release mine in the next week. donald trump will be releasing his tax returns at the completion of an audit. but the issue -- >> that won't be before the election. >> we'll see. >> god bless chuck todd. he said before the election. and mike pence says we'll see. i want to remind our viewers. donald trump promised in 2011 that if barack obama released his birth certificate, which he did, he would release his taxes. tick, tick, tick. still waiting. you make a great point. neither of the candidates are icons for transparency and openness. do voters care? >> i think that's a good question, especially because the only group of people who possibly has a lower approval rating than hillary clinton and donald trump is the media. so nobody is super sympathetic. so sort of the plight of the media. but i think transparency is an issue and that's an issue that affects hillary clinton more than donald trump just because

it's sort of baked in the cake. as sara says they're both equally bad on issues of the press but it harms hillary more because it goes to a preexisting narrative where people still think donald trump is sort of the first amendment hero. coming up, donald trump says the polls are moving in his direction. is that true? we map out the labor day state of the race. here are the results of the quiz. we asked you who was the first sitting president to use e-mail. the answer, william jefferson clinton. mornin'.

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welcome back. some people still view labor day as the kickoff to the general election. donald trump says the polls are closing in his direction. back at the beginning of the month after the conventions hillary clinton had a ten-point lead in the national polls. these are the average of all the national polls. the most recent ones her led down to 5. so the race is tightening. beginning of the month. here is donald trump's problem. state by state through the key battlegrounds, hillary clinton is leading in all of them.

some of the leads are small. florida at the beginning of the month was 1. now 4. ohio was 1 at the beginning of the month. now a three-point lead. north carolina a close race. pennsylvania in single digits. that's still a comfortable lead at 7 points. virginia she leads by even more. wisconsin, closer than a lot of people would think but still a clinton lead. colorado, a big clinton lead. if the election were held today, by our projections, hillary clinton would be already over the top with 273 electoral votes. donald trump could win all the tossup states and not clinch the presidency. he has to turn some of these that we lean blue red. pennsylvania would be the biggest prize. hillary clinton, it's not over yet. one of her biggest weaknesses in the rust belt, blue-collar voters. joe biden is trying to help. >> give me a break! give me a break.

this is a guy born with a silver spoon in his mouth that now he's choking on because now his foot is in his mouth along with the spoon. >> gotta love joe biden. when you look at it, yes, the national polls have tightened but donald trump is behind where mitt romney was at this point. 2012 comparisons are a little off because the conventions were later. we were just coming out of the conventions. when you go state by state, dan, it's pretty damning. she has -- i can give you eight or ten different ways she gets to 270 from where she is. if donald trump can't win pennsylvania -- and first he has to win florida, north carolina and ohio, no easy task. he has one or two paths and they're tough. >> that's been the case from the very beginning. that's part of the problem of being a republican nominee in this era. the map has been tilted toward the democrats, so the democratic nominee has many more paths to 270. that's what he is facing right

now. >> when you talk to the clinton campaign you'll probably not find people more sober and conservative about their projections for november. and part of it is because they understand that the polls are going to kind of wobble, they're dealing with an unconventional candidate. that's one of the reasons why they have invested so much in this ground game. when i talk to a clinton ally, a donor, he said i think that at the end of the day she'll get a one or two-point edge from having invested on the ground. the ground game now trump is trying to catch on could be the edge you need if the race ends up being close. that edge will show up mostly in the states, not in the national polls. that's why you see the margins in places like virginia and colorado widening. >> we saw that in 2012 and 2008. 2008 the historical year republicans were going to lose. 2002 the republicans were ahead but he lost most of the close

ones. due to the ground operation. donald trump is after a long time not being on television is now running ads in some of the key battleground states. they focus on issue number one, the economy. >> in hillary clinton's america, the middle class gets crushed, spending goes up, taxes go up. donald trump's america, working families get tax relief. millions of new jobs created. wages go up. small businesses thrive. the american dream, achievable. change that makes america great again. >> but even as trump gets in this game, i want to show the spending this week from august 30th through just after labor day. clinton still outspending donald trump. pro-clinton forces. $10.7 million to $7.3 million. this will change because donald trump buys his ads week to week the way they do their campaigning. the time that's been reserved already. $160 million by the clinton

campaign and her superpacks to the trump campaign. he won't get to parity because he doesn't have the money. >> when you reserve ahead you lock in better rates often. that's another advantage of being better organized. you also see the clinton campaign in some of these states after the trump immigration speech went up with a six figure by arizona not typically a state democrats feel they can compete in. they're trying to expand the map and run up the margins in the battlegrounds on a state by state basis. >> you don't see a spanish version of that ad in nevada, florida, in places where you show it tight. tossup races, places where he could potentially move the margins and further his goal of trying to drive up the numbers with minority voters. so far the campaign has not made an attempt to do that. >> the conversation among most republicans, dan, is that he has three weeks until the debate to try to somehow -- make the map better before the first debate and have a breakthrough performance or -- >> yes. though historically this period

before the debates is kind of frozen. because there is so much anticipation about the debate. so the ability to move things in this three-week period will be difficult. i just wanted to note that we've -- we have a very deep look at all of the states coming up early this week, which gives you a broader sense and a deeper sense of kind of where this campaign stands. >> and -- no state previews? i am a subscriber. >> we're going through a mountain of data right now. >> right. do you get the sense, though -- you have talked about the clinton people being sober about this. they also look at the trump campaign and look at this organization and say there is nobody in there who has done this. >> right. there is nobody who has done this. the rnc was trying to create this amazing ground game that their nominee could sort of plug into. but they assumed that the nominee would show up with a basic competency of how to run a ground game, how to compete in battleground states because

there are so many people who haven't done that before they haven't gotten that from a trump campaign. they're trying. they've said you're going to see a big expansion in places like florida. but we're not seeing it yet. >> better hurry. reporters share from their notebooks next, including hillary clinton's end of summer, back to campaign plan. you may be muddling through allergies. try zyrtec® for powerful allergy relief. and zyrtec® is different than claritin®. because it starts working faster on the first day you take it. try zyrtec®. muddle no more®.

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let's head around the "inside politics" table and ask our great reporters to get you ahead of the political news around the corner. ashley parker. >> in recent weeks governor mike pence has been quietly talking to senate republicans about hitting the campaign trail and helping them. the original thinking was that he is less toxic than donald trump and he can go into some of the states where trump is not welcomed and help out. he hasn't really held any major events raising the question does mike pence bring too much downside which is basically the stench of trump and not enough celebrity upside. i'll watch to see if he appears with the candidates to campaign.

>> less toxic than donald trump. dan. >> this is the season where the political scientists weigh in on what's going to happen in the election. we spend a lot of time talking about polls and the candidates. the fundamentals often make the difference. there are a number of forecasts that have been done and about to be published. most favor hillary clinton. most of them project that hillary clinton will win. but there are at least two that say that donald trump will win. one of the authors of one of those allen abramwitz is openly hoping that his model, called time for change, and calls for a trump victory, will actually be wrong because he is so anti-trump. >> the super bowl time for political scientists. see whose forecast is right. sara. >> unlike hillary clinton who has been raking in the cash donald trump is facing a cash pinch. he has only until october 15th if he wants to raise money and spend it effectively before election day. because they are so frenzied about their scheduling and make plans at the last minute, it

makes it hard to schedule fund-raisers. he'll need to spend more time campaigning and less time raising money in the last couple of months. that means all hands are on deck. ivanka trump. don jr. some trump backers say if he wants to be competitive when it comes to cash he needs to write his campaign another big check. >> yeah. wait for that one. abby. >> it's been a relatively sleepy august for team clinton. this week we'll see, really, the final blitz starting. bill clinton will be out there. bernie sanders will be out there for the first time since the conventions. in the subsequent weeks we'll see barack obama, chelsea clinton. everyone will be hitting the trail. this will be not only the start of the stumping but also a tv blitz. we'll start seeing on monday some spanish-language tv ads hitting the air waves. this is really what all of those days and weeks of fund-raising is all leading up to.

they are going to really blast the air waves for the next several months going to election day. >> make all that august fund-raising, she hopes, pay f off. republicans in the final stretch to remain control of the senate. democrats need a get gain of four seats assuming hillary clinton wins the presidency. a gain of five gives the democrats 51. republicans see three gop seats as likely lost causes. illinois, wisconsin and indiana. they feel confident about holding once believed to be competitive gop held seats in arizona, florida and they are increasingly confident about how ohio. pennsylvania, new hampshire and north carolina are at risk. if republicans win two of the three, control could come down to nevada, the one state where republicans have a shot at picking up a seat now held by a

democrat. not just the presidential race we'll have fun with over the next 65 days. that's it for "inside politics." thanks for sharing your sunday morning. we'll see you soon. up next, "state of the union" with jake tapper. t-mobile's coverage is unstoppable. we doubled our lte coverage. and, with extended range lte, it reaches farther than ever. now you can stream video and music free in more places without using any of your data. from skylines to coastlines, out in the country, deep in the city. we got you covered. 311 million americans and counting. and we won't stop. come see why t-mobile is #1 in customer satisfaction. clicking around and start saving at hilton.com

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outreach meets outrage. donald trump greeted by protesters as he visits a black church in detroit. >> the african-american faith community has been one of god's greatest gifts to america. >> can he make headway with minority voters? plus, meet the new trump, same as the old trump? trump follows his diplomatic mission to mexico. >> it is a great honor to be invited by you, mr. president. >> with a heated speech on immigration. >> then we get them out! >> should republicans waiting for a pivot stop holding their breath?