speaking of affordability, millions of american workers could soon become eligible for overtime pay. the white house finalized a rule raising the minimum salary threshold to qualify to 40 hours a week in a workweek to start, with people earning a little less than $44,000 a year would be eligible. soak of the good news for that. the employers probably fighting that. >> and thank you so much for watching "power lunch". be sure to tune in for the stock draft tomorrow at 2:00. thank you so much. welcome to "closing bell". scott walker live from the new york stock exchange. this comes from a countdown to meadows earnings report, the first of the big names to deliver q1 results. big question, can they deliver enough to keep the scouts -- stocks surging? we have doug clinton coming up in just a little bit. in the meantime, your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation and it looks like that major averages unable to get much going for most of the day today. interest rates have ticked a

bit higher. maybe that is stopping things, maybe we are just waiting and seeing now for meta and the others that ended the day ahead. sector action pretty swift, too. leading the day today, that gives you the kind of day it has been pretty stable utilities in the green, so doesn't mean there hasn't been some standouts in the session both up and down. visa is a learner after winnings, but teledyne is down 10% on its own results. let's take ou to the talk of the tape. will mega caps deliver, and where do stocks go from here? let's ask cnbc contributor, back with me at post 9. >> great to be with you, as always. >> you say you are more bullish now than you were t the start of this month. >> yeah. >> why? >> i think we have to put down draft on perception of hawkishness. we have some rates making some stocks sell off and i think the earnings industry doesn't look different to me than it did on april 1st, so when stocks go down, the earnings could change, i like that better. >> this idea of higher for

longer was going to have an impact at some point. we can't dismiss the fact that rates are higher likely for longer, and the impact that might have on multiples and just overall sentiment, right? >> yeah. i think when we look through the initial reaction, though, what you are left with is, do you really want the economy and unemployment to get bad, o that you need all those cuts? or, is there a goldilocks scenario, where earnings are okay, earnings are pretty good, and you can dream accommodations coming. i think what freaks people out a little bit was, oh, there was some commentary that maybe we need to hike one more time and i think maybe that was a little bit surprising to some people. i look at earnings season so far we have, as you know, a couple hundred companies, here in the next 10 sessions. >> starting in an hour, right? meta. >> nvidia has made a 22nd,

everyone has that memorized and circled, so we won't be missing that. but i think when we look at what has happened so far, pricing has been pretty good. i haven't seen any major misses from important companies in terms of revenue outlook, and i think the earnings trajectory looks intact. as we talked about for months now, margins are still pretty good for a lot of companies. so, i think that whole story of cyclical, structural, and ai on margins is still well in place, and so, sure, financial distributions get tight and maybe freaked out for a couple weeks, but i still think that story is in the lead. >> that idea of no cuts, or cuts, maybe one cut if we get any cuts, right? you say, "no action, is the bull case. >> yeah, i don't see too many people saying that. >> well, you know -- i like to do a no said may, if you could. >> i hear, well, the economy is so strong we don't need rate cuts, but you suggest no cuts is actually the bull case?

>> sometimes, i dream that the accommodation is better than the reality, right? because if we actually get to the reality, it probably means we have some deteriorating data that is a little bit surprising to the downside, versus where everyone's head is today. if it is, hey, things are pretty good, but slowly eroding, unemployment is still a little bit low, inflation might have a cyclical uptake before it comes down, people believe we need to get it down eventually, someday. so, yes, we will be accommodated, but we are data dependent, that thing they always say, that might be a juicier scenario for equities that things are ruling, consumers slowing, whatever would be the precursor for people thinking there's going to be a serial set of cuts coming. sometimes i just meant that the pause can be good. >> what you think is most important this week, meta, microsoft, alphabet? or, pce on friday? if you had to choose, rather than, they are all important. or, i can give you a pass. >> you know, i am not afraid to

be wrong, as i am all the time. i think the corporate earnings could create more volatility, if they go the wrong way. i think the pce, it is like, looks, we kind of know where we are, i feel like. >> do we? i mean, after cpi, the last few cpi's, i think we are kind of wondering where we are. >> but, i would be surprised if the data were incrementally hawkish, such that people thought, oh, now we are going to hike, for sure. i mean, if that happens, sure, i guess there is a bit of risk there, but i don't think that is the base case or something i would be positioned for. i think more than likely, you would hear that the fundamental ai story is intact, all that kind of stuff. the thing that would make the market go down, in my opinion, is meta telling nvidia that they are good for a quarter or two. [ laughter ] then, i think the earth would stop rotating. i think that is not very likely, i think they will continue to invest. >> they have already sort of come in on the drunken sailor

idea of just spending, and spending, and spending, and spending. they have had this year of efficiency. but, to circle it back to meta -- >> these guys, i don't know where or when, but they need to invest in power. i am hearing every day, that sam altman comment of, we need power to fund everything. i wouldn't be surprised if you got some collective investment in power, i think that is the gating factor for a lot of these companies. we will see if that is something that comes out of the news this week. >> you have maintained for a while now to stay overweight on mega cap tech. it already has a sizable place, as we know, in the s&p, you want to be overweight. do you still hold that position today, given what has happened, as of late? you look at a pullback in these stocks -- obviously, they had a massive run from the low in october. but, they have struggled, you know, pretty good lately. you have got a number of stocks that are well off of their recent highs. >> our view is that it is mostly risk management stocks.

remember, you don't know anything anybody else does, they are not very idiosyncratic. if the market grows of and baby value, it goes up. i can't replicate them in name. i have told people own at least the market weight of this group. most people have been underweight and underperforming, don't let them help you or hurt you and pick your shots elsewhere. i still generally feel that way. i don't think the market is going to go up and these guys are going to go down. >> i mean, it has been rotating lately. >> a little bit. >> you don't believe in the longer term? >> no, i don't think they can be a sustainable trade. you try to collect some profits, you get a little bit hawkish, sure. but, if you are looking at six, 12 months, these companies are going to grow their net dollars a ton. how do you manage those equities and ortfolios and say -- i think of it this way, what if one of your investors says

you, hey, man, i read in the paper about this ai thing. am i getting any of that in the fund that i gave you my money? and you will say, no, i didn't give any of that because it is too expensive -- you are just an idiot. so, i think people are underweight and have been materially -- >> do you think they still are? >> i think some people are, or they romanticize that they will get it down 20%, 30% and nail it for the next trade. i don't think that is likely. am i smart enough to know exactly when nvidia is peaking? i would love to know 3 to 6 months before demands. >> it went from 900 plus to 750 and then it has had a nice rally over the last couple of days, today not included. >> but the question is, is it going to be a linear path to 2000? no. but, will it be there in the next 3 to 5 years? of course it is. so, how did the will you be in trading? i think you want market exposure to at least the magnificent seven. i don't think earnings season will be skewed to the negative. >> you have already painted nvidia is the most important data point for the whole

season. >> it is, for sure. >> you still hold that view? >> for sure. >> but, it is a month away? >> it could bring the whole stock market down 10% in free sessions. if they tell you they are close to meeting demand and there is a pocket, and, the stock market will go down, the nasdaq in particular. i don't think that is likely. i think we are pre-positioned for it. i think that will happen in the next 3 to 4 quarters, but the data points to it being in good shape at the moment. the forecast could go up in the next couple of quarters, and you have semis, where growth is going up. so, i like the risk-reward, which is the point you made up front, that if the stocks are down, i like it now more than at the beginning of the month. >> let's bring in anastasio somoza, from the wells fargo investment institute. it is great to have you with us. i want to come to you first, because as i read your notes, you are not nearly as bullish as adam parker. why? >> i think this is just the evaluation. especially what you know about long-term yields, having increased the way they have.

basically, equity is flat, right? whether you are in the tenure, the s&p, you are getting about the same yield. you could argue that the gross weight is what makes the s&p having the flight at, but i would say here in the 5000, 5200 area, you are close to fair value, so if you get a bigger pullback than what we have had thus far, i think we get interested. here, i think it is okay just to be neutral. >> you say it is time to be cautious. let's be clear, right? >> we have been saying for some time to be cautious. we are pretty much back where we were in february. we think this pullback could surprise to the downside. the market is finally coming around to what we have been saying for some time which is that the fed is either not going to cut as much as the market anticipates or they might not cut at all. i would say that is probably a much bigger risk even now then if the market appreciates. >> i haven't found equity premium to be a really good predictor of subsequent return for equities, in time horizons less than 3 to 5 years. i think if you are managing a huge pile of money for long

investment horizon, then you might get word about it. but, there is no question the equity premium is really attractive starting in april of two '22, and for a whole six months down, and then it had an explosive upside. so, i don't believe i can forecast the s&p in one month horizons. i have looked at it every which way i can for many, many years. i think it is incredibly hard to predict. i think the question is -- >> strategists have learned that the hard way. >> we knew that, we talked about that for years, right? so, i think that is a fool's game. i think equity premium is an interesting, good academic benchmark to think about, but i think the reality is, it doesn't help you predict asset allocation, short-term or at all. so, i don't use that but a lot of institutional guidelines i talked to use it. >> but, the point is higher for longer will have an impact, right? that is what the pullback starting last week was about. >> i don't agree with that in

the long term. the reason i don't agree, we are all sort of screwed up since the financial crisis. historically, when the economy was good, the 10 year yield backed up and equities went up. we were all symbolic of things been pretty good, and i found in the last two or three years, that bogey moves more than anything else. it is like, it can't work if it is 2 1/2, three. let's see. if the economy is better than people think, i bet equities go up. that is where my head is. so, i think the problem with the 10 year yield is no freewheeling human being would buy that and hold it to duration. it is a garbage investment. you would much rather own equities, get access to all the awesome companies, and add a little health on top of it. >> let's ask the operations guy. anastasia -- >> i get the -- i get the next part. >> a very small task of settling this debate, that is all, that is all that is on your shoulders. >> is not wrong, it is just a timing. >> here is how i would do it. i do agree, adam, that it is not so much valuations, it is about earnings growth. you can look at a number of

high growth areas, whether it is technology, or biotech, or broader healthcare. what we know is that since 2000 or even before, what was the key driver, even when valuations compressed, it was whether you were in hypergrowth -- where they were delivering on the earnings growth expectations. so, i do think that even if the fed does stay pat, scott, i think this can be a supportive environment for stocks. by the way, we know that from prior economic data, when we look at what the market returns work during the time when the fed was on pause, they were positive. so, i would argue that return expectations for investors have actually improved since the beginning of april because we now have the 5% pullback. we can trace that a little bit. but, guess what? the price targets for the remainder of the year, i still think we could get two 5400 or 5500. so, if i was investing, looking for that, you know, trading at 5200 on the s&p, that is clearly not as attractive as when we were trading below 5000. so, i think investors are

getting another entry point here that is quite attractive. >> sameer, why isn't the "unbelievable" economy that jamie diamond described yesterday good enough? who cares about rate cuts? don't need them. >> like we just mentioned, we have 5400 as a year end target. from today, that is only about 6% and you can get about 4% if you just do a prorated yield on just net funds or the two year. so, i guess you are taking all of that risk for what? one, two additional percentage points? again, we have been fatal on march caps. we have not bet against tech. we are neutral there. we are neutral on services. we are unfavorable on discretionary, that is the easy and where the e-commerce players lived. it is not like we have been fading the market out right. but, if you really have a good economy, why aren't small caps working? why aren't emerging markets working? why don't you have cyclicals outperforming growth to a much greater degree? >> well, that is the market

litmus test right now? i mean, these rates -- rates are more elevated than some thought they would be. that is why they are not working. i don't necessarily think small caps -- which are loaded with regional banks -- with app of higher rates are the greatest litmus test for howell, a, either the economy, or b, the stock market are doing, to be quite honest. >> historically, no asset class has been more economic be sensitive to the u.s. economy. >> so, you are judging -- you are not going to get more bullish on the market until the russell 2000 starts going up? >> so, we have been favorable on march caps, right? i think most of our clients have actually done really well because they are getting the alpha from large caps outperforming and small caps underperforming, so really we have had our cake and eating it, too. i think when you look at small relative to large, i think that is a good indicator of how the overall economy is doing. >> i think there is a few other indicators to look at when it comes to the economy.

scott, one of the things i am encouraged by, for example, is the real-time consumer spending. by the way, going into the meta earnings later today, if you look at the digital advertising checks, for example, they are very strong because you have the consumer out there spending, business recovering, you have the global manufacturing momentum that is picking up. i think that is benefiting the large caps because, scott, you kind of pointed it out, how can you do well as a small-cap when you have debt to leverage, that is well higher than it is for large caps? and, by the way, you have a floating rate exposure on some of that debt. so, i think we can see this divergence that actually continues. but, to the other point that sameer made, let's say it is 6% upside to the 5400 for the s&p. to me, that is not as attractive, but first of all, that is a base case of if the fed doesn't cut rates. if the fed does cut rates -- which i don't rule out for this year -- i think that gives you the extra mile for the s&p. the second point is, we like to pick our spots within the s&p. i think there is plenty of beta and plenty about performance potential you could find there.

i would look to semiconductors as one of those areas. >> rich clear that, former fed vice chair told me yesterday on this program he still expects a cut, at least. maybe one or two. they have pushed off. maybe they don't need them right now, but, the fed wants to cut. >> one thing in there -- one, with sameer, i would agree that -- and you are not -- but if you are massively bullish on the equities, i would expect a small caps to perform in the uptake. i think the challenges them performing in the down take. i think we would agree on that. look, a lot of what i do for a living is talk to institutional investors. i am lucky that i have talked to many people have made hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars investing all of the time. i don't remember any of them using the phrase erp with me. so, guys who pick stocks for a living, hold them for six, nine, 12 months, don't care about equities premium. to me, it is more of a large asset allocation framework to start thinking about things over a multiyear horizon, and then it doesn't look that attractive. i don't think it has any value

until the end of the year, so i don't think it is fair to say equities plus the dividend maybe gets 7% to year end compared to bonds. if bond yields backup, you could lose money there, too. so, there could be a couple percent on top of that return and it still looks pretty good to me, all in all. so, that is just me, maybe i am kind of screwed up by who i talked to for a living. >> sameer, you can respond to that. >> it is not so much that. i think it makes more sense to talk about the areas we have favored. we like industrials, materials, energy. all of those have over performed year to date. some of those have actually done better than expected. i do agree that if you can pick your spots, this is a really good market. again, i wouldn't necessarily say we are bullish. i think cautious is different from -- >> but, you said you have been cautious for some time. i'm trying to -- you used those words, "we have been cautious for some time," that is exactly what you told me. i'm trying to understand what that means for where you have been interested in, and where you think we are going from

here? >> so, we have gone through 5250, we had a list of 5% pullback, almost 6% pullback. so, that is right to be cautious, right? so, the areas that have done well between that time are actually kind of short-term income, we like that. we like commodities. those have done really well. some other sectors, industrials, energy, materials, they have all all done well. i would argue caution at the index level. the index will have a difficult time in my mind after the elections. >> anastasia, do you want the last word, here? >> i think as we move closer to the election, we can certainly see some volatility and that is when you look at the vicks curve, that is what it is implying. one thing we do know from investing around the elections, you want to stay invested leading up to it and especially after it. so, i tended to look on the opportunity side of the spectrum and to me, some of these pullbacks that we have, that we have right now, you buy those gradually. >> one thing i am worried about

changing my mind on, we have been recommending -- my changing your mind already? >> in the last nine months, not during this program. we have been recommending energy. >> yes, you have. a, before it started working, and before many others, right? >> yes, and it looked okay, but now i am like, it should have been up more, demand has been weaker than i would have thought. i am starting to worry that the multiple just continues to erode even as the cash flow looks relatively attractive. i think with the market is discounting now is thinking trump is going to win. just looking at data. >> but, it is cyclical, right? >> i think if trump is going to win, you get more cutbacks that will come back and that would be the perception. maybe we just can't act well until after the election, so i am a little bit worried about that, relative to where my head was 3 to 6 months ago. >> 20 minutes have gone by, that means we had a good conversation. i appreciate you being here, very much. >> nice to meet you, take care. let's send it over to

kristina partsinevelos now for a look at the stocks moving into the close. kristina? >> after some rounds of job cuts last year and a streak of disappointing earnings, it looks like cost-cutting measures may finally be turning things around at hasbro. the term maker beat street estimates and beat its 2024 outlook, which is why shares are up almost 12% right now. downside, though, shares on old dominion are sliding after posting mixed results. revenues fell slightly behind. comments from the ceo did sound a little bit more optimistic, saying the company improved financially despite "continued softness in the domestic economy." those shares are down 11%. scott? >> kristina, we will see you soon. just getting started here at post 9. coming up, the countdown to meta, the tech giant seeing serious gains this year, up 40%. we have doug clinton from deep water asset management standing by right off the set ready to take a seat. we are live from the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cc.nb

highly competent. i'm just here for the internets. at&t it's super-fast. reliable. you locked us out?! arrggghh! ahhhh! solution-oriented. [jenna screams] and most importantly... is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network. i sold a pillow! when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset.

so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment. learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold at sandstormgold.com. ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there.

i don't want you to move. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with xfinity. if you've ever grilled, you know you can count on propane to make everything great. but did you know propane also powers school buses that produce lower emissions that lead to higher test scores? or that propane can cut your energy costs at home? it powers big jobs and small ones too. from hospitals to hospitality, people rely on propane-an energy source that's affordable, plentiful, and environmentally friendly for everyone. get the facts at propane.com/now.

here we go. the tech earnings kicking off in less than an hour. to meta reporting his first quarter results today. doug clinton of deep water asset management here with me now. good to see you. how are you feeling going into this? >> feeling okay. expectations are higher this quarter than last. if we remember last quarter, meta was up 20% after reporting. it was incredible. they did everything right, dividend, buyback, guidance was great. i think we are not going to see the same magnitude of stock move after the market, 20% is a pretty high bar. but, i think investors are optimistic going in, and i wouldn't be surprised if we see a more muted reaction. >> i mean, the magnitude of the beat -- forget about the magnitude of the stock, because one, the cart before the horse, right? can they keep up the pace?

they are coming off of the best quarterly sales growth in 20 years. can they keep up that sort of revenue growth? >> i think they can keep up a pace. 26% is the bogey this quarter for ad revenue growth. i think they can exceed that, but i wouldn't expect to see as big as a guide up as we saw last quarter. i think what we need to do, though, is show that solid stable, ad revenue base. we saw last week with taiwan semi, people care about the core business. it is not about ai. but, i do think ai is the other ingredient going into tonight. people want to hear more about llama3, which they launched last week, and they want to hear more about meta-ai. >> so, if they can't keep up the same pace which they have kept up most recently, given the fact that the stock has been up a lot, what you think the reaction will be on the backside, if it is a beat and a good one, just not a "blow you out of the water" one? >> i think the stock will be okay. if you look at meta, they are

still only treating 24, 25 times forward earnings, that is kind of within the range of the last 10 years and it is in the ballpark of google, in the ballpark of apple. it puts them in line with some of their peers in the magnificent six. so, i think they are in a good place. the wildcard for them, again, is they have some different ai things that they are doing, particularly on the open source model side and i think that creates option audi. >> margins are good, multiple has expended, multiples have come in more lately in the upset, but in order to keep the multiple expanding, you have to keep up the growth and at the same time, you have to make sure you don't spend too much on ai and all of these other things that, you know, let's be honest, this company was really criticized for spending like crazy in the past, so they have had this year of efficiency. can they handle that trade-off? can they keep the growth rate up and keep the spending down? >> i think they can.

i actually think they have more leeway now, ironically, now that they have gone through their year of efficiency, then they had 18 months ago when the stock bottomed in october of '22. i think investors trust mark zuckerberg, he has regained a reputation with them for being frugal, driving innovation of the company and spending on the right things, including $10 billion on h 100 ships. >> so, that is a big day for you, as well? are you as optimistic there, as you are with meta? >> more cautious on google, but here is the thing about google. there is only one mag 7 stock that is up over the last month, it is google. i think the story with that is, a month ago, investors had totally written off google. they gave up on it. we had the gemini issues -- >> longer back than a month ago. >> it was ugly. >> basically, for the last year, the noise around that company is that it is lost. >> yes. >> not only lost the ai race, but it has just lost. >> right. internally, it feels like the good news is, though, we are starting to see just a little

bit of them coming back to sanity, coming back to reality, and may be a meta like year of efficiency. we saw yesterday, the search boss talked about efficiency. and it is funny hearing their search boss say, "we need urgency at google," is empowering. and it is important for me as an investor to hear that because that is a fair criticism of google over the last year. they need urgency. hopefully, we hear more about it on the call. >> funny that the stock performance hasn't matched the narrative. you set it on a shorter-term basis, but even on a 12 month basis, when we really started getting hot and heavy on ai, this stock has done better than microsoft. >> yes. >> people would have you believe otherwise, the narrative would have you believe otherwise. what about for microsoft, then? >> well, i think it shows you something specific about google -- and i will speak to microsoft in a second. google has all the assets to

still be a player. i that is why they have done well over the last month, two months. investors have come back to the reality that they have distribution. millions of people use their platform, they have x, they have money, they have all the ingredients. microsoft has a lot of those ingredients, but they don't have the same data. they had to go work with openai to bring openai to reality on their systems, on azure. so, i think microsoft is in a great place. certainly, if you think about the mag 6 stocks, google, microsoft are probably at the top from a software application standpoint. but, google, we prefer here and continue to own it. >> lastly, the mega cap and trade in general, are you feeling shaky about it? do you feel a come back is in order? is this the week in which that starts? >> we still feel good about it. i think when the market is up 13 weeks in a row, that is when i feel more nervous than if it is down a few weeks in a row, so i think this has been a healthy adjustment. for us, we are still confident in meta, still confident in google as ai winners and we are sticking with it. >> thanks for being here. doug clinton joining us. up next from goldman sachs, elizabeth berkman is here to

tell us how investors should be shaping their portfolio and where she is seeing some safety now. she is on post 9 next, when "closing bell" returns.

we are back now, the s&p and nasdaq making their way into the green in the final stretch. the dow is trying to get there, it is awfully close. investors looking ahead to this week's key economic data that

could influence whether the fed will begin cutting interest rates anytime soon. my next guest says now is the time to position for fewer cuts ahead. joining me now at post 9, elizabeth burton of goldman sachs. good to see you, welcome. >> good to see you, too. >> i think that is partly what this market has been figuring out, how to best position for fewer cuts and higher for longer. what is the best strategy right now? what are you telling your clients? >> i do think folks should be thinking that we will have fewer cuts. i actually think if i was still in a cio role, i would be thinking about protecting my portfolio for even longer extension because i think there is always a risk that those cuts could be pushed further out, even if it is not our baseline. it is a bigger risk to portfolios for a court appointed height rather than a court appointed decrease, and a cio managing a large pool of assets, that is your concern, not, what is the fed going to do and how many times this year. >> you think the market needs cuts? and how would you assess that question? you here, the economy is awesome, it is incredible, we don't need rate cuts.

but, the other school of thought is, well, at some point, we do, and we may get them this year. so, what if we don't get as many as we once thought? how would you answer that? >> the market needs certainty. i don't know if it needs cuts, or want certainty, i should say. i think that is the more important issue. i wouldn't say whether or not it needs it at this point. we still have time, too. who knows what is going to happen between now and june? i think the hardest challenge is deciding what to do if you don't know what is coming. i actually have a paper coming out in a little bit that talks about if you had perfect foresight into certain economic data, which things would you want to know? none of the things i list are a court point here or there. it is, where do you think we are, here and now? >> tell me how you would recommend investing with a year from now time horizon? >> for one, part of the reason i said that, is i think investors are already on one side of the fence with respect to that and are looking for a little bit of confirmation bias, either way. thinking a year from now, if

you think rates are potentially higher, do you want to be locking in short-term rates? do you want to be locking in fixed rate at this point, or do you think you have more bandwidth? short-term rates are attractive here, right, but that would change your opinion on whether that is important to do it now or whether you have some leeway to think about other sorts of things. >> do you actually think rates could be higher a year from now than they are today? >> i am not saying they will be higher a year from now, but when you are managing assets, you want to think about risks to the upside. they could be at the same level they are now, but i think what you are asking in the rate cut question is, are rates going to be lower than they are now? >> i would think most people would think they would be, because we are eventually going to get cuts, plural. >> we are going to get cuts and goldman sachs would agree with that message, 100%. but, is it now? is it a year from now? that is what i am saying. what really matters is, where do you think we are a year from now? not necessarily, where do you

think we are at the end of july? >> but, between now and let's say the end of the year, do i want to be in small-cap stocks, do i want to be in cyclical stocks? do i not, relative to where rates are today, not so much to where they are a year from now, do i need to make some investment decisions that are going to carry me over the next few months? maybe the landscape is a little bit different than what i thought it was going to be from an economic standpoint and a rate cut standpoint. >> on the small caps, which everyone is super talking about these days, we think that if there are rates coming, that will be a tailwind for small caps. in general, we think there are a lot of tailwinds for small caps, though. do you need to wait until here is a rate cut in july? probably not. there are other reasons you can be looking at small cuts right now. i think another worry for investors continues to be -- this is interesting, on our internal website, concentration was actually not in the top keyword search until this quarter. it wasn't last quarter. now, folks are worried about it. i would have thought maybe they would be worried about it in the last two quarters, so they are looking for diversification everywhere they can get it. >> it is so interesting you say

that you want to be overweight small caps. i mean, it is a good debate right now. the market action, the price action of the russell would suggest that you don't, because any time rates go up, the russell is going down and vice versa, obviously, so how would you contend with that? >> in some parts, the russell suffers from somewhat of a bend -- benchmark issue. not everything in the russell is something you want to buy, you certainly want to pick your spots. i believe goldman has been clear on that, we believe this is a market you want to be active in. and by the way, not just in the u.s., ex-u.s., it is an opportunity, as well, but there are a lot of tailwinds behind that and we are all exposed -- most institutional investors have to be exposed to the u.s. equity market, so they are just looking for other ways they can gain that exposure when they have already expressed so much frustration this year. think about if you were in asset management this year. how frustrated would you be? it has been tough? so, i think they are looking for, what else is there? is there an alternative to this,

is there an alternative to what we are in now? >> let's take the large-cap thing for a moment. we have meta reporting tonight and in the subsequent days we will have other big ones, too. how do you feel about mega cap tech right now? >> i think there has been a good story behind it. i think the bigger issue for me this week is i have said every time i have been on here, investors don't care about these short-term things. i actually think this time, like it or not, there has been some caring. it has been such a big story. again, i go back to the confirmation bias. people already know how they feel, about what they think is going to happen for the growth outlook. this week, these earnings are either going to confirm that or they will keep looking for other data points. we have already seen strength in the economic data that the u.s. is on a good path, now we are looking for confirmation on forward growth. >> and not letting you out of here before we talk about everest because i have never had anybody on either of micrograms have climbed everest, what you just did. >> i will be honest, i climbed

everest base camp. >> i am still giving you the gold medal for that. give me an idea of what that experience was like? >> it was great. i went alone. it is not always a vacation if your family is with you, so i got some good solo time. but, i think it helped me reset, helped me relax. hopefully, that is not too much of an insight into my personality. but, i am very grateful for the time to do it and lots of small steps to go a long way. >> i bet. congratulations on that personal challenge and success in doing that. elizabeth burton of goldman sachs here at meta. up next, tracking the biggest movers into the close. kristina partsinevelos is back with that. >> another acquisition looming in the software space and leisure travel still booming. that is helping shares of one hotel chain. can you guess? that in stock movers, next.

at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.

exactly 15 from the bill. let's get back to kristina now for the stocks she is watching. kristina? >> bad weather didn't stop travelers from booking hotels at hilton properties. unfavorable holiday shift on performance, this according to the ceo. the chain is so confident the travel boom will continue it is raising its full-year guidance and that is why shares are 4% higher. software firm hatchie corp. continuing to hire today out of bloomberg that ibm is looking to buy the cloud software provider for $35 a share. expect to hear more about this

company on ibm's earnings call, which is out after the bell. there will be a major factor, considering ibm's competitor, censure,ed its revenue growth guidance recently. shares of ibm barely up 1%. the other company, up almost eight. scott? >> kristina, thank you very much. still reporting gains, chipotle. recent price hikes, or is there more ahead? we will discuss, coming up.

coming up next, your big earnings and set up. meta, ibm, chipotle among the big names. we tell you what to look out for and take you inside the market zone, next.

municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least $10,000 to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years,

and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income are federally tax-free and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis.

pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. we are now in the "closing bell" market. commentator mike santilli here to break down this day. plus, julia boorstin on what to expect from meta in overtime. chipotle also out in the next hour and kate rogers is watching that for us. mike santoli, we are loitering

now, just waiting around. we need to have some activity here. >> we know some of the most important cells in the market spreadsheet will be filled in and even more after today. meta, before its last earnings report, was a $400 stock. races to 510, has pulled back 7% from there, so is hard to say that the bar is low, but it represents 2% or so of s&p earnings, much more than that of the growth. so, yes, it does matter. i do not think that is all that matters, but i think the market welcomes the opportunity to fixate on the earnings story. and ddp finished out, final estimate is 2.7% first quarter annual growth, real growth. 2.7% pce may be coming on friday, that is 5.5% nominal growth at an annual rate. seems like we should make our numbers on earnings. not just for that reason, but for others. i think we are comfortable

there. they are on the radar, you can't get away from the fact that they are near the highs. i don't think it is a huge threat, but you are aware of what has happened. >> almost speaking to what i feel is underlying this market a little bit of late, is a rotation. >> for sure. >> you are almost opening the door and saying it is okay, relative to the growth you just talked about, to go into these other areas and we are not so heavily reliant on the meta and alphabet, like we may have been. >> not so heavily reliant and people feel like they have enough exposure there even if they don't do anything else. nvidia is really acting erratically. i know that is what it does, but it is just bouncing all over the place in this correction mode it has been in for a while. but, banks are under another half percent today. to your point, that messy rotation is ongoing. >> all right, julia boorstin, meta, meta, meta. what should we expect? >> meta shares are up 40% today and revenue at the company is expected to continue to accelerate its growth rate.

top line is expected to jump by 26%, i think that is the key number to watch. 96% growth in earnings per share. all of that growth is expected to come from tailwinds from reels, from ai driving results for advertisers. a solid digital ad market, as well as perhaps some early revenue from the messaging business. analysts are very overwhelmingly bullish, 86% have it by rating on this stock, 11% have a hold. so, we will have to see if meta says anything about benefits to come from ai or how it could benefit from a tiktok ban. back over to you. >> julia, we will see you in ot. mike, you can't possibly keep up the sales growth pace. the question is, how much do you have to? >> exactly. as the year goes on, it will be interesting because growth is stepping down from monstrously high rates, 7% eps from meta, supposed to be 35 this year. in 2025, it is supposed to be 15% growth. it is a matter of what you pay

for that. less than 25 times last year's earnings, it is not a superexpensive stock if you are talking about reliable mid teens or at least double digit growth. but, you have to see if they give you a little bit of a window on the clarity of those growth rates. >> chipotle doesn't really need to play second fiddle. i mean, the stock has done quite well, i think it is a highly owned name. what do we expect there? >> scott, analysts are looking for $11.68 on revenues of 6.6 billion for the quarter. same-store sales are expected to increase 5.2%. that metric will really be key for analysts as well as any commentary around consumer sentiment and pricing power, which chipotle has maintained here, even in the face of pull back from lower end consumers at some of it competitors. another thing we will be looking out for, traffic growth. chipotle thought traffic increased by more than 7% last quarter, that bucks an industry trend of falling traffic in

this competitive environment. you mentioned chipotle is among the best performers in the restaurant sector, up nearly 30% and ceo brian nicol will join us before the endless call in overtime, so join us much more on that. back over to you. >> kate rogers, thank you so much for that. >> i mean, they have done absolutely nothing wrong and really earned the benefit of the doubt in terms of being able to maintain the growth. plus, we still ad 0.8% to the store growth every year, so it is not totally saturated, but it is 50 times earnings. it is holding it, it is an $80 billion market cap, which is big for a restaurant company, but not big really for a consumer. so, very interesting to see, especially if they are talking about maybe they have pushed prices as far as they can or not. >> overall price axing with two minutes left, we are at 5075 on the s&p. we were really sure we were going to get back to this level so fast. >> know. you basically did a couple percent up, it might be reasonable to say that last week's low, 49, 50, thereabouts looks like -- you should assume the low end of the range at

first at the moment until proven otherwise. >> but, last week's hi, i think you said was 50 a.d., so, that is what i mean. >> so, looking at last week's high, that is a hurdle, and then you start talking about 5120, 5150, which is the 5100 averages. that is where they are going to peter out if that is all that it is. if there is more behind it and you can get a little back and forth action, i think it is fine. the big thing to me is, we didn't fully flush out optimism in this market because earnings are good enough, everybody said we need a 5% pullback. so, you don't always need it, but sometimes, you will get a better snapback rally if, in fact, people had really liquidated and gotten out, and needed to buy back, get in a hurry. that being the case, i think that is why you kind of settle

at a higher locus of customers, or a lower optimism. >> look, if jamie dimond had said the economy looks like garbage and we are in trouble, maybe we have a different sentiment. he said it was in trouble, the reason he -- >> it seems like jamie -- >> well, maybe you can get just a 5% pullback because the backdrop underneath it, the floor is very strong, the foundation is strong. >> the underlying foundation is strong. >> that is mike santoli for us. meta, minutes away in "oatis." press the pause button, taking a breather after a strong start to the week as rates creep higher today. that is the scorecard on wall street, but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime". i am morgan genin -- morgan brennan with john fortt. >> we are gearing up to report on these in just a moment. this includes meta-, ibm, and chipotle. >> we will bring you all of the key numbers, and an exclusive interview with chipotle ceo brian niccol before he talks to wall street on the