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make now a good time to buy stock? we have different perspectives breaking that down and giving us their own stocks to watch with next week's floods of earning reports. >> the cnbc stock draft is coming up and we will interview the participants and draw the order and is there a caitlin clark or williams? let's look at the markets here with two hours left in trade and stocks are trying to hold onto some gains but not happening and the dow is in positive territory with the s&p lower by 6/10 of 1% and the nasdaq, the under performer down over 1% as ambassadors digest the latest earnings from netflix and we have the others and the dow is higher for the week and the s&p down for the third straight week and having the worst week since late october and the nasdaq down 4% and the worst week since late 2022. >> oil prices are easing after

spiking earlier in the session after reports of the attack in iran presumably by israel. they say the backdrop for investing is foggy with uncertainties and while he remains on -- optimistic, he said the s&p 500 is due for a 5% to 10% correction. let's bring in our good friend, president of research and always good to see you and let's start with the geopolitical issues and they remain there but do you take comfort in the fact that what appears to have appeared overnight is a very measured retaliation for strikes on israel last weekend? >> i think since the start of the middle east war in october seven when hamas attacked israel, there has been an increasing push comes to shove between israel and iran and it certainly, when it attacked israel with that garage of aerial missiles and drones. the israelis have pushed back

with their retaliation, but it looks as though both of them are signaling to one another they don't really want to get into a major war at this time. i think israel will continue to deal with the proxies in lebanon by iran and in gaza and, for now at least, it won't be a direct war but you never know what could happen. >> let me turn if i might if i must to the fed. should we just keep talking about it for a while? it seems like they will take the rest of the year off. >> that is exactly what i wrote yesterday in my quick takes. i said, you know what, i had a picture of a hammock and i said maybe you can take the rest of the year off and chill out and

enjoy vacation and come back after the election and after that there are a few days later a meeting and they can come back for that. >> it does feel like we have milked this past the point where it is producing anything and it does appear that way. >> at the same time i guess trying to understand what the fed will do next and what you make to the internal selloff we see in certain sectors like industrial and tech and maybe just down 17% from its recent high? >> i have been thinking that it is time for a rescue and at least a pause in the market and we had an extraordinary move to the upside since october 27 of last year with almost a vertical ascent and the leadership was clearly technology, but it didn't start to broaden out. i think now the market has been weighed down by the realization that the said me not ease at

all and we remember that the markets were taking rate cuts and i was thinking 2 to 3 and i think there will be no rate cuts but i guess it is possible there could be two in november and december and things could change on a dime in this crazy world we live in now. but, all in all, i think some of the errors are profit-taking and i think there will be a more defensive posture and maybe some people are still going to go into energy as a shock absorber against more shocks out of the middle east and we could have a 5% to 10% correction and am not sure it will be as bad as 10% but we are getting close to that correction and we are through the average 50 days and if we get that down it wouldn't affect that correction. >> is that on this idea that treasury yields will move

higher and maybe even break above 5% that level for the 10 year? >> i think at this point the markets have discounted that there won't be those rate cuts but maybe a few. but to the extent the market still has to give up on what i think is exaggerated expectations for more rate cuts anytime soon we could see this tenure at 5% and whether it's just seeing that number the market lower, we may very well find out. i don't really think we will go above 5% on the tenure. i think what keeps me optimistic is there way too much pessimism about the inflation numbers about the first few months of the year and these numbers that everybody interpreted is hotter than expected but if you take a shelter and i always like to do this to support my story and the core and headline inflation

rates around 2 1/2% which is pretty close to what the fed wants and we know it is coming down and i know people have to live somewhere. >> when you take out all the things i have to spend money on and inflation is pretty low. it's always the stuff that hurts me like the shelter and taxes on the whole thing in the food and you have to eat. thank you. appreciate it. >> tim cook wrapping up his tour of southeast asia and vietnam and all in his itinerary but what is it mean for their strategy in that region? steve kovach is here. >> tim cook met with world leaders out there and southeast asia and hinting at new investments in the region and also this is as they look for new areas following steep sales drops and having to diversify its supply chain. stops included were vietnam

indonesia and singapore and he met with the leaders of each of those countries and those are also the countries we have heard him .2 is areas of record sales growth but not growing enough to make up for the decline in china and in indonesia he said he would look at adding manufacturing and in vietnam he met with the prime minister and talked about increasing investment in existing manufacturing and in singapore announcing a $250 million plan to expect -- expand offices there. india has reportedly rapidly increased manufacturing of iphones in the country since the last meeting but ahead of the earnings of apple in less than two weeks it is important to know that these are long- term initiatives and apple is relying on china for sales and the vast majority of its supply chain. >> what would it be doing in indonesia? >> that was specifically asked

and the president said bring them here. >> what about singapore. >> a campus there and they are adding to that campus presumably to hire more people. >> thank you very much. >> sticking with the region the world's biggest election is underway in india where the prime minister is up for reelection with nearly 1 billion people going to the polls over the next six weeks and the growth story hinges on economic reforms and experts say the promise of strong growth at a time when the story continues to unravel has in a way shielded the indian leader from criticism of his handling of human rights issues and the government's purchase of russian and iranian oil and investors poor in and it's up 30% over the last year versus the emerging market of 1% which

double lines jeffrey gun lock who said in february india is the number one recommendation for his client the 2024 and we will discuss this and more with the portfolio manager at morgan stanley of assets under management as of $1.5 trillion. it is nice to have you on. clearly a lot of excitement but how could this present some level of whiskey for your bullish stance. >> i think there will be three things i am looking forward to with the government and if the consensus holds on this victory and one is fiscal consolidation which has been very interesting and key which helps the government to spend on infrastructure and just prioritizing. ex -- capex.

>> this gets impacted negatively and anything above $9500 in prices could impact the micro stability because it this point inflation is under control and the deficits are more than the past and the fiscal trajectory is on a good trend and even real rates are decent at 2% positive your rate so the stable macro along with consistent reforms is needed and anything that goes against some of the macro indicators related to the oil price can be a negative. >> with a look at how investors are allocating money, u.s. versus international it seems that u.s. managers are reluctant to put more money in. even though you have these secularists and why do you think that is or will it

change? >> i think the u.s. market or exceptionalism has led to flows and there is a lot of home bias so academic work done on this. if, unfortunately, when emerging markets perform, that is when money starts coming in, even in the 2000 run. i do think that, as i mentioned, the fiscal debt situation is heterogeneous and there are differences and different idiosyncratic stories, but overall, the growth differentials and the interest rate differentials which have favored the united states so far and help the us equities and kept the emerging market as an asset class lagging, i think that is peaking because a lot of the markets are beginning to see the growth upside because of rates and also differentials, the differential with the rest of the emerging markets seem to be at the peak so i think there will be some interest as the

performance improves over time especially at this point and i feel there are a lot of opportunities with the geopolitical drawdown happening. >> as you look around the global market and i would call merge -- europe not emerging and i know that's a specialty of years but if you took me on a cook's tour of the world and say this is where i would put most of my chips and maybe a little less chips here in this part of the world or a little more here, how would you sliver it up? would it be a's a -- asia ex china or what? >> think about this more not regionally but individual pockets of the world with respect to country and thematic decisions. i think within the united states i would definitely broaden it from a passive perspective the equal cap versus the s&p index. outside i think there is a lot

of opportunity emerging in buckets of europe where the euro will provide a good triggered her earnings because nearly 50% to 60% of the european earnings depending on the market comes from outside of europe so the domestic economy is less relevant than the global economy and we see a pickup in global industrial production and global trade. so a lot of european pockets and consumer brands and luxury and even in industrial that creates an japan i would be positioned for companies that benefit from an appreciating currency given the way it has appreciated and be discerning on how to slice and dice that market and the emergency -- emerging world and with the near shoring and where there is a lot of diversification and

even some markets are looking interesting and a lot of opportunity and attention has been >> i am wondering does that change your thesis? a lot of these are trading at a premium to the united states? >> some of them like europe et cetera or even pockets of japan or other markets are not at a premium and even in countries like india where valuation is at a premium those have stepped up and even these have kept up with high values and i would be worried if that rolls over and and it is that trending lows and rates come down and these

are floating rate companies and they could actually get a trigger in terms of their earnings especially in europe. >> thank you for lending your expertise. up next along the way here in the bit coin space taking place of the weekend those details after the break but the tiktok ban being tucked into a house foreign aid package and we have those details next

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bitcoin is bouncing back after getting is low on wednesday as this event is known as the halving. >> this happens every four years and bitcoin has only been around since 2009 so it is the fourth time that a halving has happened and it is a pre- programmed code built in a way to slow future production of what is known as changing the block reward so it's created by these minors and you can see these high-powered computers with companies behind those run these in data centers and validating transactions which is what is happening on the backend but they do receive new bitcoin as an award and right now they get six that could fall in half and they will get three and hence the name having an this controls the scarcity which is a big deal which is part of the appeal and why some

call it a deflationary asset and it makes sure over the long run that the supply is capped at 21 million and the question is what will be the price impact? it is so widely expected, the consensus based on investors that they say in the near term it is likely priced and with bitcoin up slightly but it has doubled in the last year or so but up 50% year-to-date so it does appear to be largely priced in but if you do look at the previous three events like this they did mark the beginning of these longer bull runs in this time though it is different and analysts say the new demand get approved and this has more influence than this has but of these there is more institutional demand so some analysts say that the etf dynamic could outweigh any of this from the having and some think the supply reduction is limited and one investor said earlier it will reduce the supply by less than 1% and they didn't see it as a price

catalyst and one other impact they are watching closely is the publicly traded bitcoin miners we mentioned by reducing the output of the commodity they are producing and it does threaten revenue which is why you have seen pressure and things like riot blockchain in marathon. >> what is happening is not a reduction by one half in the amount of bitcoin outstanding but a reduction by one half in the amount of new bitcoin that gets added to supply, thereby lengthening the time until it gets to that 21 million? >> you did nail it and that is exactly it. you hear this and you think the supply is reducing but that isn't the case. it is lengthening in the timeline until it can get to the

21 million cap but when you talk about this deflationary asset you think it's written so it reduce this side but it does take longer so there are decades and some estimates of 100 years until they reach that cap but a lot of people don't know that and it is an interesting dynamic and a unique asset and it really is just computer code. >> it feels like something out of the book of revelations. like a big moment. like the rapture. thank you. the number of family offices has tripled since the pandemic and managing trillions of dollars for the world's wealthiest families. we will look at that a growing trend plus supermicro computer falling sharply today and the details on this right after this

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with godaddy airo ♪ ♪ relax into a caribbean state of mind. visit sandals.com or call 1-800 sandals. some big moves in chip stocks and they are down 6% with amd down 4 but this big number is down 20% as you see there for supermicro and let's get a quick market/. >> investors are asking what is supermicro hiding and it is

seen as an ai darling which shares up 600% and this is over the last year and even with today's 20% plunge. this morning they announced earnings released sound normal but didn't preannounced pre- expected earnings and now they are braced to break a win streak and seven out of the lace times -- eight times they said they would be good earnings and in that view it should be a negative important ai data so there is a glimmer of hope that one time they didn't preannounced so maybe it could be the case but expectations are high and it's constant we talked about as an ai darling but you see competitors falling in sympathy. >> i am curious what your thoughts are about this and the

movers seen this and is the outlook of this company how much is hinged on its new blackwell trip which i remember you reporting was coming out and of this year which was the chip that could help with the scarcity of the power issue? >> they do claimant could because it's extremely more powerful than the previous iterations but there was a note from a few days ago that said even with every single iteration and every intel iteration is still not enough to overcome the massive increase in power and for the actual earnings report, there is still a lot of loyalty and strength behind this report specifically because they are the ai play but as a whole they have been falling and over the last month when compared to the and nasdaq the three main reasons why we see this down you see it down in tandem with the 10 year treasury climbing higher so the second major point is the asm l outlook and

disappointing for non-ai business sections and you saw that trickle over and it is overbought and a lot of people got into this and a lot of momentum traders that don't follow the sectors much so they pull out on that momentum. >> we will see what they tell us about that. thank you. >> let's get over to an update. >> the full jury for former president trump's hush money trial is set and six alternates were chosen after the 12 mangers were seated on thursday and it consists of seven men and five women in the opening statements could begin as early as monday. just as the full jury was impaneled, a horrifying scene outside the courthouse as a man apparently lit himself on fire inside the designated protest area according to the nypd. he was taken to the hospital and his condition is still

unknown and as lawmakers debate aid, the ukrainian president told members today that his forces need missile systems to counter russian airstrikes and he said the current level of foreign aid is very limited. the nato secretary general followed the speech by pressing allies to dig deep into their inventories to provide the weapon systems. netflix is down big after some guidance breaking a winning streak so what should investors do? we will get you an answer using all of the tools of the trade all of the tools of the trade nextits. work with pal so we can help you with a plan that's right for him. you know what i'm saying? let our expertise round out yours. new projects means new project managers.

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start with the fundamentals. how does netflix look to you here and clearly the stock a loser today? >> i think it looks troubled. the key thing is with them they missed their estimates a little bit and that's not the story but the story is i think the model is getting tired and wall street is starting to see it in a few reasons is saturation of consumers and the increasing prices have had a little bit of a drag and no will block buster contact and they are even guiding to the point where they will increase the revenue not just from subscribers but additional revenue through members and partly to ads and sharing and this is how popular i don't know. what you have is a model and it used to be an all-you-can-eat buffet and now they become an @■ la carte pricing model and whether it will be possible

going forward and additionally there seems to be not really a competition but they definitely see a lot of competition and mainly youtube but tiktok so going forward i think it is a big question whether the company will trade as much as a growth stock was and if it trades like a media company on a cash flow basis you will see price-earnings compression which means it could trade as low as 500 or below so to me at this point it is a pause or sell. >> a bit of a soggy outlook and let's look at the technical and how does the chart look right now? >> i would say it is a long- term uptrend and netflix has trended higher since 2022 and it still does have the support of the monthly engages and that said we do have a gap down and we have a 50 day average which is a setback but at the same time we haven't intermediate term overbought downturn which means one of the indicators has

reversed lower so maybe in the next few months but we would look for this corrective phase to persist. but usually after a gap down like this you get a rebound. we are not advocating to clients they sell rather take that first and reduce it and i really can't rule out that 500 level that was just cited because there is some support in that area. and yet at 500 level is still actually within the context of that long-term uptrend. the corrective phase here over the intermediate term. to me it is just a countertrend move within a broader bull market. >> we will watch that 500 level but looking at the option, would you see there? >> what is surprising today is given the significant move to the downside you don't see an overly bearish activity.

this is to 1.2 times and a lot of those calls are actually near dated and up through the 590 strike so that is interesting and the other aspect is you don't see this expand so post earning walls collapse and you don't see a lot of uncertainty around the names f us stock is moved a lot so this may just be the options market saying this will be an opportunity to take advantage of a dip in the price today. >> already. thank you. we will go sort of to a bonus round and we will give trade ahead of next week's earning based on the school of thought so back to the fundamentals. you have a stock, boris that catches your eye from a fundamental standpoint as we head into earnings? >> yes. i love meta. i think it's the shining star among them right now and it has a chance to grow revenue it

nearly 20% while trading around 25 and it is using ai well to serve both the advertisers and customers well and its engagement is up and i was shocked to find out that it still has engagement of 3% and you 21% and tiktok still has it down 4% so very positive for them. there is an embedded call option for meta in the sense that maybe tiktok gets ban but personally a possibility. ig would get that flow and i love the stock and it is amazing the recovery story they had and they have more to go. >> so you like meta. katie, from your vantage point what looks like the best chart going into earnings? >> i don't know about best looking but alphabet stands out and it's a longer

recommendation of ours right now and it has broken out to new highs and cleared some major resistance and that bodes well for upside for the balance of the year and in near-term we do have an overbought condition we don't have any countertrend indications from alphabet ahead of its earnings report and it is hard to get the edge ahead of its earnings and it does create volatility at times. but that is on the downside much like netflix and we would look for alphabet or google to ultimately discover support within the context of positive long-term momentum. >> you like alphabet better than apple? >> oh, yes. apple has a bit of a ouble top formation as you can imagine hello some key support right now and has been a laggard and the one good thing that is if they avoided confirmation of its breach of support which was 169 to 170, that would be a shakedown so that is something

we are scrutinizing over the next week or so. >> let's move on. two tech plays fundamental and technical, but yours in the options area is anything but a tech play and i guess he could make it partly so. >> yes it is old-school tech and actually in the oil patch and if you look at getting exposure into earnings next week on a name that has a great chart it is exxon mobil's when you take a look at the stock it is breaking out here and there is a great opportunity to go out through september see you can get earnings exposure now and get another earnings exposure and get the peak driving season and then go out and sell the september $110 put an get that call which will cost you about $2.30 and get you unlimited upside and you have to get the stock at $110 but it is a good position to be in because exxon mobil is the biggest buyer of the stock itself and we see a

floor for oil around the $79 price which is where the united states wants to get more oil to put in their strategic petroleum preserve -- reserve. it's doing well because they are halfway through a plan to get $25 billion annually from free cash flow through operations through 2027 so they will most likely increase the dividend but one of the things they like the best is getting their own stock so we think heading into next week's earnings, exxon mobil on a fundamental technical as well as with options at 2.8% low next week and implied volatility is low. it is a great opportunity to get long exxon mobil. >> thank you so much. still ahead and aid package predicament with a potential tiktok ban and speaker johnson's multimillion dollar aid package for israel, taiwan and ukraine and we will look at that ahead of the house vote.

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let's draw your attention to the markets with nasdaq hitting a low of 2% with names like netflix, apple, amazon trading down as investors create this new reality potentially prolonging its next rate cut. here political issues are colliding that could impact your money with aid for ukraine and a potential tiktok ban and the future of the house speaker. we are in dc to lay out that drama and a busy weekend ahead. >> yes. congress will be working this weekend partly on that $95 billion package of aid for ukraine and israel and it did clear a major hurdle the day and now appears set for passage

afternoon when i get back and it includes funding for ukraine, israel, the indo- pacific region, and also this fourth group of bills, national security focused, including the measure requiring that tiktok divest from its parent company bite dance. a group of hard-line conservatives have rallied against this bill and additional funding for ukraine but democrats through mike johnson a rare lifeline on a procedural vote today. he said while the bill wasn't perfect it was an improvement from the senate version. >> this is the best possible product we can get under the circumstances to take care of these really important obligations. we do look forward to this vote tomorrow. >> democrats are expected to help pass package tomorrow and signs show it is likely poised for passage in the senate as well. the support of ukraine in the face of gop opposition still could cost him his job and the third republican said today that he also will vote to remove johnson if that vote

comes up and in a statement he said republicans need a speaker who puts america first rather than bending toward the reckless demands of the warmongers and the military- industrial complex making billions from a costly and unless war half a world away. speaker johnson hasn't blinked in the face of all of this and he said he is a wartime speaker and the events on the world stage are too important to play politics over. >> a few questions. number one, does speaker johnson, is he confident -- do observers believe he has the votes to do what he wants to do in one notable point a few months ago and particularly on the impeachment of secretary mayorkas and he miscounted and he said he had the votes but didn't. >> the great thing we saw in terms of the votes of there is it was clear that a majority of

republicans and a majority of democrats want this package to pass and it was a procedural vote but you saw more than 300 lawmakers go ahead and vote for that which is a very very very comfortable margin and the way they are moving this package is done so it is broken down into four pieces which means that folks who maybe opposed to ukraine aid can vote for those pieces and more likely the package will get through. >> another quick notion here, the ukraine support was at one point tied up the border security and has that disappeared as part of this four-part package? >> it really has. johnson tried to have another vote on border security, but it's not a part of this package. they tried to come up with a plan to do security while boating on ukraine aid and it didn't pass the senate and it didn't have enough momentum so this is the path they have chosen to take because it is so difficult to find any bipartisan agreement when it comes to border security. >> coming up, all in the family

office. the number of family offices has tripled since the pandemic and managing trillions of dollars for some of the world's wealthiest folks and we will look into whwh pery enow lunch continues. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. why not? did you forget something? my protein shake. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more prospectus at invesco.com.

♪ welcome back, everybody. the number of so-called family offices managing money has tripled since the covid pandemic, and now totaling more than 4,500 around the globe, according to a new study our wealth editor, robert frank, joins us with the details. what explains the trend? >> tyler, the growth has been incredible the number of family offices in the world has tripled since the pandemic, as you mentioned there are now over 4,500 of them in the world that's up from just 1,300 in 2019 family offices are the in-house investment firm for wealthy families, typically worth $100 million or more total assets for family offices now topping $6 trillion, so they account for a larger share of capital markets than hedge funds, private equity, or even venture capital. increasingly, they're putting their money into private markets. they're moving away from public equities their favored allocation for this year is private credit, followed by real estate and

private equity they're also replacing traditional private equity in a lot of big deals michael dell's family office, they help take endeavor private this that was a $13 billion deal. family offices are also replacing private equity in the oil and gas sector a group of family offices bought colorado gas producer pure west for $1.8 billion their other favorite sectors this year include biotech, a.i., and health care. you can read more about family offices and where the wealthy as a whole are putting their money in my new "inside wealth" newsletter scan the qr code there and find out all about what family offices and high net worth investors are doing right now. >> robert, we also want to ask you about some of the techniques the rich are using to avoid state taxes. what are they? >> there was a great article in bloomberg that mentioned a lot of people are idling their suvs on the gw bridge to make sure they enter manhattan just at midnight a lot of folks that fly, in and out, to make sure they spend a

certain amount of time in new york that's because, as i reported last week, states are cracking down with audits on people that claim to have tax residency in florida or elsewhere, and it's not just counting the days they ls want to find out where your dog is getting treated, where your dentist is, and whether your refrigerator in new york is truly stocked, because if it is, it means you didn't really move. so, the auditors right now, especially in new york and california, they need revenue, so they're challenging these wealthy folks that moved during the pandemic and saying, we don't think you really moved you owe us taxes for the past three years. >> how would they know >> they come and visit you, and with a.i. now, they're able to look at your phone records and figure out, well, your phone says you were in new york. you didn't really move >> got to leave it there >> incredible. coming up on "power lunch," the stock draft is nearly upon us less than a week away. after the break, we will reveal this year's draft order after this

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i got to get her outfit. welcome back as you just heard, the 2024 stock draft, nearly upon us. next week, next thursday now is time for the official draft order. >> here's how it's going to work we're going to draw the names and introduce this year's contestants, beginning with the tenth draft. >> go ahead. tenth pick >> honored >> number ten? >> joey khusychestnut >> he's the hot dog champion pick number nine, we have drewski, a content creator and

actor that i have never heard of >> next is jillian michaels, the fitness guru >> i know who she is and then we're up to number seven now? neve shulman, market fish, host of "catfish," another person i've never heard of. >> next is kenny smith, the jet. you know this person >> great guy with barkley and shaq on tnt and tbs. >> that's right. >> next, austin ek ler you know who he is he's the washington commanders' newest running back, brian, brought over from the l.a. chargers >> oz pearlman, who has been on cnbc, the best magic >> now we're down to pick number three. pick number three in the draft is going to be charlotte flair, team woo, wwe star, last year's champion she'll be back >> love it number two is eddie george steady eddie, the former nfl

rookie of the year >> great player with the titans. ohio state guy and then, oh, this is so appropriate. breanna stewart, money machine's two wwe titles in this week of women's basketball, who better than breanna stewart to get the first pick >> "closing bell" begins now ♪ welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner this make-or-break hour begins with tech on the ropes while the rest of the market works to get up off the mat a day of violent rotation to finish out a pretty punishing week at the s&p 500 struggles to avoid a rare six-day losing streak here's your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. mentioned the s&p 500 is down, has been down as much as about 1% now down 0.6%. below that 5,000 mark. the dow hanging in there the equal-weighted s&p is up on the day, so you do see a lot o