a'case, for the rest of her life. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [theme music] ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede and these are your headlines. fed chair jay powell sticking to the script reinforcing the line that the central bank is not ready to cut rates yet as attention turns to europe which will have the next move from the ecb. >> headline flaginflation has m

down. we can take that step of beginning to reduce policy rates. teleperformance has a revenue miss and is cautious about the outlook. the ceo says he is not worried about customers turning to a.i. >> we perceive a.i. as enhancing our human employees' job, but not to replace them. h hugo boss with the delay in sales targets, but the ceo is still confident on the outlook. >> if consumer sentiment is here and there a bit tough, we actually are on course and we are well on track to reach our $5 billion might be delayed. we will reach it for you are.

fresh off the super tuesday win, president biden gears up for the last state of the union address before the november election. it was a slightly downbeat start for european trading today. down .10%%. you see the uptick this year. that uptick since the middle of the year seems to be causing a bull run taking a breather. there are a host of things happening and one will turn to the boards. if we just run through quickly some of the issues in the headlines, but when one takes a look at the european trade, teleperformance is down. hugo boss is down as well.

merck is down after announcing a transitional year of earning. all that his in the play and i have not mentioned the ecb. that decision will be a factor to look out for across europe. we are down .30%. the ftse 100 and ibex 35 is finding gains at .20%. the retail stocks are the ones taking a hit because of hugo boss which is down 20%. a big fall of 1.2% down there. healthcare finding gains on the opposite end up .75%. u.s. futures here as we head toward the opening picture from the united states. we might actually get a few losses to start off the trading day, but we were back in black yesterday. major averaging finishing higher off back-to-back losses.

fed chair jay powell says there has been progress on inflation, particularly in the u.s. as he expecting interest rates to come down this year, but he was not ready to say when. in a speech at the u.s. congress, powell said rates, sitting at a 23-year high, are likely at the peak and waiting too long to bring them down could pose a risk to economic growth. now, he was speaking, of course, to lawmakers and said the fed needed to see more data to show the u.s. economy was heading in the right direction. >> u.s. growth last year was excess of 3%. what we are seeing so far this year is continued solid growth. my expectation and that of other forecasters and colleagues is we will see continued growth at a solid pace. i will say there's no evidence or no reason to think the u.s. economy is in or in some kind of short-term risk of falling in

recession. >> it is all about the data. here is the data thus far, jobs numbering with openings down significantly as well. that's down 26,000 in january to just over 8.8 million. of the number of workers quitting their jobs dropped to 3.4 million and private payrolls rose less than expected. that was up by 140,000 with the leisure and hospitality leading the charge. analysts looking ahead to the important non-farm payroll figures and those are out on friday. speaking to our u.s. colleagues, adp chief economist said this is dynamic. >> this showed a shift last month. they have been coming down at 5.5% year over year, but they pumped up for job changers.

that showed the labor market which is dynamic with a pay bump from switching jobs. that's the first time we have seen an increase in that number since 2022. we are counting down to the ecb decision. it is holding steady today with the markets pricing in a more than 80% chance of the first rate cut by june. annette is yojoining us with th one. annette, is it all about the wage data? >> reporter: wage data is a crucial factor, but overall service price inflation. the headline looks coming down quite well. if you look at the sub comp comp components, that is closer to 4%. of course, it is way ahead of the ecb target.

that is the area that the ecb is watching carefully. that could have a self fulfilling prophecy. higher wage demands and that will mean will service prices move higher? if you look around, countries like germany, the biggest eurozone economy, has loads of strike action going on. just today, we have lufthansa with higher wages expected across the board. they want to see and that's why the ecb will wait until the end of the first quarter how wages are developing in the first quarter and they make their minds up when to actually cut rates. one has to be fair when it comes to the economic assessment. back in december, we all thought the euro area would crash into recession. that hasn't happened. there is more wiggle room, i

would say, for the ecb to actually stay put and be cautious on the interest rate cutting front. what they want is to avoid a policy era or to cut too early and later on, having to do more than they wanted to do. a policy era is not what they want. today, we get a staff projections for inflation and economic growth for the next three years. that gives us an idea of what the ecb thinks about the inflation development and economic growth development. i guess this is the major news today with the data and staff projection. we all will be listening carefully as to whether there will be any hint for further guidance on the rates. >> annette, thank you for covering this. you will cover this with silvia later on. let's continue this conversation with simon field who joins us to

unpack this. simon, thank you for the time. this is a question he that is becoming more pertinent. madame lagarde points to the wage data being crucial. >> at least as far as the ecb is concerned, yes, they put a lot of weight on that. that gives us more clues as to the timing. as you know, wage data is not as timely available as inflation data with the longer lag. it is less frequent publications. it is not quite the same as inflation where you get inflation sooner and quicker, but that's what the ecb is waiting on. >> you have europe in a close situation to a recession. one could argue that germany is pretty much in that state already. europe itself is perillously

close to that. >> if you talk about recession, i would say probably we have moved through that. the hope now is from q2 onwards, we see a pick up again in growth. so, if you are just looking at recession, that's behind us anyway. now is really about inflation. >> what does inflation go from here? is it just like the fed and you keep to the script and say we're worried about inflation popping up again at a later stage? we would rather be too late than too early? >> i think there is some of that in the ecb thinking at the moment. they are so close to getting back to target. actually, inflation, so far this

year is better than the ecb expected in their last predictions in december. now we are on track to get close or maybe dip below 2% in the third quarter. now they don't want to destroy all of the progress they made so far by acting too early. >> the projections will matter significantly, right? does that give a clearer sense of where we go from here and the outline of the basis of the possible cut or conversation around it today? >> yes. i would say the most important part for the projections are the outer end inflation in 2025 and 2026. we might see movement in the forecast for 2024. gdp taking account in q4 and q1 and inflation with the sudden change. the important part is 2025 and 2026 and adding to that, as you started with the wage data, the

current projections won't have the wage datathat the ecb wants to see which would come on in april and we have to probably wait for the june projections to get a sense where the ecb is moving. >> does it matter if the eurozone cuts before the fed? it is something that has happened usually in the past. >> i think the ecb would be more comfortable with the fed going first and we still can see that fed in may with the ecb in june. i think that is what they prefer. >> how many cuts this year? >> this year, we have three 25-basis point moves for the ecb. that is slightly less than markets are pricing in. >> three cuts for the ecb according to berenberg. interesting chat. we will continue our coverage on the ecb rates decision happening

d later today. the economist at berenberg. thank you. let's more to china. exports rose 7.1% on the year. that's well ahead of the expected 1.9% increase. it comes amid a recovery in global trade driven by the electronic sector. imports rose by 3.5%. that is more than double the expectations. a new landscape of higher monetary policy is transforming global bond markets at a pace not seen in decades according to the latest oecd global debt report which projects sovereign debt areas will hit a record high in 2024.

it expects it to rise to $15.8 trillion this year. surpassing the 2020 high. don't miss the interview with the secretary-general of the oecd mathias cormann. a first on cnbc interview coming up at 11:15 cet. coming up on the show, we'll be hearing from the ceo nikolai setzer. don't miss that interview. it is a first on cnbc.

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german auto parts maker continental is looking at a full-year adjusted operating profit of 5.2 billion euro amid higher freight costs. we have the conversation with the ceo nikolai setzer. good morning. a bit of a squeeze on the supply chains, are we? >> let me say we had more

difficult times on the supply chain in the last three years. they have been consistently disruption on the electronics parts. we have managed on the logistics side getting further robust and going forward, we see once it comes to special incidents that we are getting better. overall, we have achieved our targets last year and we have increased our earnings. our earnings are up. we made a big step to the mid-term targets. >> i want to focus on the ev market, if i will. there is a reason why you are looking at restructuring of tech. are you looking at that ev space and thinking it kind of offers the kind of margins and gains you had seen previously in vehicles? >> so we spun off our power trend business in 2020. we were 100% dedicated to power

trains. we are independent with the tires and rubber products and automotive. we are independent from the kind of engine we produce. we are very happy to support the ev market, particularly with our ev tires where we have great success on the platforms on the auto side. in short, it is more important to bring more value with the new technologies in the cars, whether ev or hybrid or i.c.e. >> does that demand for tires coming primarily out of china? are you seeing the demand that rest of the globe is seeing particularly out of the asia region as opposed to europe? >> so with all of the volumes, we are supporting with all across the world the large share

of ev market with our tires. it is not just in china. we see it in europe and north america. we profit from the increased demand for those ev tires across the board. >> if one takes a look at expectations for 2024, consolidated sales of 41 billion euro to 44 billion. it is not too far off from right now. what is the biggest risk to your business, sir? >> so, overall, in our markets we see marketing treading sideways. the auto market is supposed to be flat this year. this is a big move for our auto business. we see industry markets getting into the venue and it is the same for the tire markets in 2023. particularly the truck market. that's why we see we can only increase our top line by adding more technology and value and out perform the market.

that's what we did last year. in auto, we grew 2% stronger. 12% of organic growth. we target the same for this year outgrowing the market. on the other hand, working on cost measures to improve profitability. >> i want to talk about the job cuts you announced last month. that is a significant restructuring there. how much is that expected to then save the business? are there any further restructuring you are considering? >> we have announced in february that we have to get more efficient and effective on the production side which was the transf transformation, but now it is on the administrative side and r&d side with the high cost exposure

with the sales. we announced those programs for administrative functions that should create 400 million in savings by 2025 and on the r&d side, we are 12%. we want to achieve a single digit number in order to get an efficient ratio. >> nikolai, we have seen industrial output falling in january in germany. that is a fall of 6%. what is missing out of your market in germany? is there a lack of investment in certain areas which is not aiding that growth? >> with the german market, we

see similar development and as in europe, it is muted with the inflation effects in the last years. by transformation, it hit us hard. we are in a phase of improving or restructuring. by that, as you saw, we expect on 500 million euro increases over that time. certain portion of our employees in germany as well. with that, germany is very different than the other european markets which have to develop and improve and go forward. >> nikolai, i appreciate your time. nikolai setzer, the ceo of

continental. a.i. could hurt the tele performance shares. it is continuing on a plunge today at 19%. the firm missing the 2023 full-year revenue target and said it was cautious about the future. we got to speak to the ceo who told cnbc that the role he sees a.i. playing is this for the company. >> a.i. is part of the solution that we provide to the clients. a.i. helps to increase the security of our employees. it helps productivity which is great. we perceive a.i. as enhancing the job that our human employees do, but absolutely not replacing

them. to retail now where hugo boss warned of sales reaching 5 billion euro by 2025 could be delayed. that is amid weak retail spending and weaker consumer sentiment. that stock has a push of 17% lower. the german brand expects to see sales rise 3% this year. that was in line with the expectations. the ceo told cnbc he is still confident about the company's pricing. >> the vin einvesting into the product is important and we are on track because it is all about the price value. as long as your product has a good price value, you can also adjust your prices slightly. we are well on track also on the march there. let's look at lufthansa after the airline announced the

first dividend proposal since the pandemic. as you can see, it is down 1% on the german trade despite the top and bottom line miss in the fourth quarter. merck will report today a 5.6% decline in net sales in what the company called a transitional year. the group was hurt by sharply lower covid sales as well as inventory de-stocking as ebitda fell 14%. it expects to return to growth this year. the stock dipped 1%. the ceo told cnbc she expects a rebound in growth later this year. >> what we expected is for lyslife science, 2024 qit q2, to be

stronger. as this continues, our business will pick up. finally some green in novo nordisk saying the trial data for the weight loss drug returned weight loss of 13% after 12 weeks of use. shares rose on the news hitting a record high as you see 4% to the good this morning. uk building society nationwide is buying virgin money for 2.9 billion pounds. the price of virgin money going up 37%. coming up on the show, we will be joined by the ceo of the

world's largest duty free operator of avolta. that is coming up on cnbc next. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term

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it's the second half of the show. welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede and these are your headlines. europe waiting for signals on the ecb rate cutting path at the policy meeting while jay powell sticks to the script saying the central bank is not ready to cut yet. >> inflation has moved down to 2.4%. as i mentioned, we want to see more data to become confident and we can take that step of beginning to reduce policy rates. teleperformance sinking to the bottom of the stoxx 600. the ceo daniel julien is not worried about customers turning to a.i. >> we perceive a.i. as enhancing the job that our human employees

do, but absolutely not replacing them. hugo boss lining up the worst trading day since 2016 after flagging a delay in the sales targets. the ceo says he is still c confident on the outlook. >> even if consumer sentiment is a bit tough, we actually are on course. we are well on track to reach our 5 billion which may be delayed, but we will reach for sure. novo nordisk shares surge in the all-time high as the weight loss trial delivers strong results. on to the earnings front. the world's largest duty-free operator, avolta is flying high

after an earnings beat. the company reported full-year core ebitda of 1.13 billion swiss francs which is ahead of target. the ceo xavier rossinyol is joining us. thank you for the time. a quick look at the share price as well. we saw it falling. it is down 64% in the last five years. it is a significant tell on where things have been particularly because of covid-19, but would you say the down times in travel are over? >> good morning. thank you for having us. definitely. i think the connect with the p performance of the company and the price is close. the performance of 2023 is another strong year after 2022.

we have high expectations for 2024. the only reason is because we do not see any material slowdown across the 73 countries. travel remains one of the main priorities of operations and in particularly on generation set. 65% of them travel and see the world as number one priority where to spend the money. our business is based on that. >> so, xavier, you said something with regards to the closing of the gap with the company performance and share performance as well. is it because there is no belief? travel is a fundamental element to world trade at the present. how do you close that gap? 64% is still large in comparison. >> i think there are two key aspects we need to emphasize. number one, some people believe

that the strong travel performance over the last couple of years was a little bit of a one-off. as a consequence of the low trading during the pandemic which i believe is misguided. travel remaining strong, but it willing be stronger. we have 4% to 5% passenger growth per year. the number of total passengers in 15 years will be doubling. it will come from all across the world. there are emerging markets joining that. the second idea which has not been fully understood yet is avolta, the leading duty-free operator, but leading travel operator after the merger with duty-free, we are in 73 countries and 1,000 locations. 5,000 points of sales. this is larger than anybody in

the space and makes us more resi resilient. we are very little affected by microeconomics and the risk of any contract is very small. we merged last year. there was a lot of information regarding the company and i think now is the sixth reporting quarter where we are reporting stable and growing profitability ahead of the expectations in all of those six quarters. it is just a question of keep doing a good job and keep delivering on the results and ahead of expectations and that gap will close. >> one of the things you spoken about are a few factors i want to touch on, if possible. have the efficiencies been integrated after the merger? on the other side of the that, em passengers from china have not necessarily returned the way

you would have liked. >> the synergies have confirmed and will be delivered one year ahead of expectations. we are just at the beginning of the synergies on revenue. we have signed a few contracts this year where we operate the whole commercial space of an airport or terminal which includes terminal. it is a beginning of the long jur journey. the recovery has not been there with the chinese which is one. what you see in the asia pacific is extraordinary. india is reaching the moment of the development of gdp to have a material impact over the next years on the travel industry globally. you have indonesia and vietnam. we have significant economies where they will be again another area of development. for putting context, chinese

passengers at the peak in 2019 were less than 5%. we are not relying on them like we are not relying on any nation. that is the beauty of avolta. we are exposed to 2.3 billion passengers globally in 1,000 locations and we are much less effected for one special location. >> shon the other side, you hava significant product mix that includes luxury items. has that begun to take a hit? >> no. we have the middle east crisis and it impacts a certain part of the mediterranean. we have seen people pick other locations in the mediterranean.

if you are only in the middle east, you would be impacted. we would compensate anything in that part of the west mediterranean. affordable luxury is where we sell in the luxury environment frag fragrances. that has not been affected on the sales. this has been an extremely strong year and trading continues. >> xavier, i appreciate the time. interesting set of data points and interesting as well to talk about that travel industry. hope to chat again. thank you for the time. xavier rossinyol is the ceo of avolta. uk chancellor jeremy hunt says it is his working assumption there will be another fiscal event before the general election expected later this

year. this after he cut contributions by two pence in his spring budget in a move costing the government 10 billion pounds. >> it means additional 450 pounds a year for the average employee. combined with the auto reductions, it means 27 million employees will get an average tax cut of 900 pounds a year. 2 million self-employed will get a tax cut averaging 650 pounds. changes that make our system simpler and fairer and changes that grow the economy by rewarding work. >> the uk sector the treasury told our sister channel sky news that the government wants to scrap the payroll tax entirely. the opposition labour party said

it would cost 426 billion pounds a year. the national insurance cut announced yesterday will be partly recovered through other tax rises and public services spending will no longer grow in real per persons terms. a member of the committee for the office for budget responsibility, david miles, told this show that revenue raising options have narrowed, but spending expectations have not. >> we've had 15 years in the uk where productivity growth has been neg negligence. it really started by the time of the financial crisis which is 15 years of the gdp growth or productivity growth. it used to be 3%.

we lost 30% of gdp. 30% poorer than you might have thought before the financial crisis. part of the fiscal problem is people's expectations of what the government does in terms of health and wealth and education and the roads hasn't fallen 30%, but the ability to raise revenues has fallen 30%. that is a problem not just for this government, but the next government. >> silvia asked the former chancellor whether the budget suggests the conservatives have given up on trying to win the election. >> i think what you have seen today is a careful and thoughtful budget from the careful and thoughtful chancellor. he hasn't been able to present the budget against the back drop of ideal circumstances from the chancellor's point of view. he has taken the capacity he had

and he has used it carefully to signal the way ahead. we want to see lower taxes in due course. we don't want it at the expense of public services. the productivity was a constant running through the budget. we need higher productivity and higher economic growth to reconcile the tension with the desire for good public services and the desire to keep taxes at a bearable level. >> does this modest approach, although it is a responsible manner and welcome by the markets, is that enough to make you win the next election when the conservatives have a 20 percentage point difference from labour? >> i tell you what would not win the next election is reckless borrowing. we tried that. that is not the way forward.

this chancellor and prime minister have been clear that they wouldn't go back down that road. >> we received results of the latest bank of england decision makers panel survey. the year ahead cpi expectations fell to 3.3% in february. that is down from 3.4% in january. inflation expectations still moving in the right direction and headed lower. let's shift and head over to another story. international women's day tomorrow with the 2024 theme inspire influence. tanya breyer caught up with the u.s. ambassador to the uk and asked her how important it is to have female role models like vice president kamala harris. >> as the second female ambassador and looking at her and having all those little

girls, i have a daughter and i talk to young people all the time, need mentors and role models. you can't have young women thinking they can be anything if all they see are white males in these positions. why do they think they can be anything? you have to show them it's possible. it's very important that she is in that position. it is very important. she talks to young people a lot. kamala harris has overcome a lot. go for your dreams. the only thing that can hold you back is yourself. don't let that happen. i do think it is important. >> we have seen nikki haley dropped out of the race. >> i saw that this morning. >> of course, she's a republican, but how do you feel that her not being successful impacts women in politics in the

u.s.? >> listen, she did win a primary. she fought a tough contest. i think we have to look at it more broadly. i was somewhat involved and watching what was happening in 2018 in our country. it was an interesting time because we had a huge number of women candidates. most of them had never been in politics before. watching that, i found it very interesting. for the first -- not the first time, but when you run in the u.s., fund raising is important. i wish it wasn't, but it is. just like women in many fields, they didn't have the contact was the head of the bank or not as good with fund raising, but they are now. they figured out the game. they can fund raise. candidates were exceptional. they are going to be the leaders of tomorrow. i think you will see more of

that because what has happened is the women's vote is critical. the women's vote and the suburban vote is different. it is usually the swing votes and they changed the future of the elections. they have already. i think they probably will over the next 10 or 20 years. coming up on the show, it's state of the union day across the pond. we look ahead to president biden's address after the break.

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that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back. investors are turning attention to the important february non-farm payroll data after blockbuster job gains this year. last month's employment figures are expected to show signs of moderation. according to lseg, non-farm payroll rose by 200,000 and the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. the republican national

economy says the lpresumptive nominee is donald trump. nikki haley challenged to win support of the voters who had backed her. >> it is up to donald trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it. i hope he does that. at its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away and our conservative cause badly needs more people. this is now his time for choosing. u.s. president biden is set to give his final state of the union address before the election. analysts are doving it one of the most consequential state of

the unions in our modern time. we arhave brie jackson with mor. >> reporter: the president will be working on his speech until the last minute tonight. he knows this address is an important moment to highlight his accomplishments and make his case for four more years in office. from investment and infrastructure promise to lowering prescription drug prices, president biden is expected to tout his accomplishments and point to who his administration is doing to make a positive difference in americans' lives. the president will layout his priorities moving forward ranging from creating a fairer tax system to tackling divisive issues like a woman's right to choose. meanwhile, senator katie brich is expected to deliver the

speech. she is talking about the southern border. millions are expected to be watching tonight and this follows the super tuesday win as well as seeing the race for the white house narrow to what is expected to be which is a 2020 rematch with president biden and former president trump. >> brie, all eyes on the state of the union address later on. brie jackson from nbc news on that one. and shares of new york community bancorp are falling. the stock saw a rebound following an official announcement of $1 billion deal with several investment firms in exchange for equity. the deal includes a leadership

shakeup with former treasury secretary steve mnuchin as one of three former board members. and trial news from novo nordisk has sent shares higher in pre-market trade weighing on drugmaker eli lilly. eli lilly going down 1.4%. novo nordisk u.s. listing up 4%. here is a quick look at the markets before we head over to "worldwide exchange." of course, european markets are down as you can tell. .30% lost from the ftse 100 after the budget announcement from jeremy hunt. most sectors are trading in the red with the autos and retail stocks which are lower. insurance is managing to see gains. all eyes will be on the ecb which meets amid falling

inflation and what looks like a slight recovery in economic activity. the anticipation is for the ecb to hold rates at 4% today, but a june rate cut is indeed currently priced in. you have the likes of teleperformance moving down as well as hugo boss. to thecurrency picture. yen moving higher due to the negative interest rates announcement. we see that 104 with that weakness. and the bets of the u.s. rate cuts could come by mid-year have weighed on the greenback. 127 on the pound/sterling. on to yields. the yields are cooling as investors took comfort from the fed comments which is not yet ready to cut. investors have one eye on the ecb who could offer clueses on when rate cuts may be coming.

let's look at the futures as well. this is pretty much what you expect from the u.s. powell testifying on capitol hill saying that rate cuts could indeed be happening, but where you go from here is an issue. the state of the union address as we have made note of as well as jay powell testifies. more speakers with loretta mester set to speak. don't miss the ecb decision and the conference from the governor christine lagarde at 2:00 p.m. cet. i'm arabile gumede. thank you for joining us on "street signs." "worldwide exchange" is up next. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." i'm frank holland. we start with the whip saw week continues with the futures facing pressure after the higher day yesterday. why investors are feeling a bit skittish ahead of the open. too soon to cut. chairman jay powell testifying on capitol hill and telling lawmakers it needs to see more data before making a call on when to cut rates. and a $1 billion