and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin joe is out today it's a monday morning. let's look at where the u.s. equity futures stand at this hour mixed picture. dow futures are up 21 points s&p is flat. nasdaq is off 15 points. we are to the end of july and here is where the averages stand as we close out the month. s&p and nasdaq on pace for the fifth straight month of gains. up 3% and 4% respectively for the month. dow is also up by more than 3% this month just check that out. that is the month to date.

if you look at the year to date, that is more impressive with the markets. treasury yields. wait let's look at the year to date nasdaq is up by 37% year to date that's the blowout on all of these. all three major averages up sharply over the first part of the year if you are looking at the treasury market, 10-year treasury is below 4% the 2-year treasury is below 4.9% we have comments from minneapolis reserve president neel kashkari. he was striking a tone about a soft landing speaking with "face the nation," kashkari said the u.s. economy is making surprisingly good progress, but says there is still work that needs to be done >> we don't want to declare victory. we are making good progress and we're staying on it.

if we need to hike or raise rates from here, we will do so, but we will let the data guide us >> returning to pre-pandemic levels is achievable in his words. we will talk about the soft landing with white house economic adviser jared bernstein at 8:30 a.m. today. "x" with twitter retiring the bird logo. the icon on the mobile app changed to an "x" friday night >> i thought it happened overnight. i noticed it today >> i had it earlier in the week. i was trying to figure out what time that happened the company installed a new glowing "x" logo on top of the building in san francisco. elon musk tweeted out this video of it. little bruce wayne-ish the city of san francisco opened

an investigation for installing the sign without proper approval they were denied access to the roof and it is a temporary lighted sign neighbors have been complaining about the lights on the structure and some say it is being held in place by sand bags on a separate matter, i thought fascinatingly, elon musk tweeting over the weekend, the company twitter planned to stay in san francisco which i thought was a great thing given all of the problems san francisco has been facing. he said in the tweet, he had seen companies leaving and people trying to get them to come to other cities he said you know who your friends are when you stay. i don't know if that is the sign or the city of san francisco we are all rooting for the cities. walmart paid $1.4 billion to

increase stake in flipkart walmart bought out the hedge fund from tiger global it is valued at $35 billion. at the box office this weekend, "barbie" bringing in $93 million in north america ticket sales the global haul at this point is 7 $750 million universal's "oppenheimer's" haul is $46 million disney's "haunted mansion" will cost more than $200 million to make and market. marketing for the movie derailed by the actors strike which started on july 13th the stars were scheduled for

july 15th with appearances, but it was canceled. we will talk to mike belloni in a bit. you see the pictures from the fall of 2023 pushed to 2024. lar largely not being production, but promotion. "barbie" had a lot of promotion set up in advance. "oppenheimer" in london with the premiere where the actors left the screening because the strike started in that moment when you don't have the actors to go on news programs or late night shows which are not operating, just the idea of how you get the word out is a lot more challenging >> you saw a lot of tapes that were done and put out and videos which were done in advance

this is once you get into an extended period which is where we are getting into. >> that is when it becomes hard. bel belloni has an interesting moment of what is happening on the studio side. there may be more movement we'll talk about that. >> more movement of getting to the table? >> maybe try to -- we'll see i want to talk to him. it was interesting. when we come back, it is a busy week for the markets we will get you ready for the lazard ceo peter orzag you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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right now is time for the "squawk planner. the busiest week of earnings season really about one-third of the s&p and four dow are set to report, including caterpillar and merck. we will hear from apple and amazon we withnazon. we with wil we withl get adp payroll on thursday and july employment report on friday our next guest says stocks are

in a precarious position joining us now is joanne feeney. joanne, do you think stocks are in a precarious position i read the rest of the notes and you think the s&p is finally catching up with the seven tech stocks that were on a tear earlier this year. >> good morning, becky those two things do go together. we had an incredible rally since the beginning of june. it is no longer the big seven which have done well the other 493 have done well dozens of san companies in the p are trading multiple times not that you can't find bargains, but that's what we do for clients is look for other ways to be invested with valuations high with the risks. >> does that mean you are

advising people if you are in the big high flying stocks that are high valuations and you might be selling some of those and put money elsewhere or keep cash on the sidelines? >> what we are doing for clients and what we advise is do a little bit of both, becky. invest in core growth companies and things empowering the economy like amazon and google we have taken money off the table like nvidia even in the growth portfolio we think the valuation is pretty high we love the generative a.i we think it will be a driver for years. that is why you want to stay exposed to growth, but this is the time to look for bargains and have defensive and income generating in the portfolio whether it is abbvie or general mills or something which hasn't doing well. >> what have you sold besides

nvidia lately? >> we backed away from some china positions a little bit we backed away from some of the other, you know, higher valuation tech stocks and moved into the defensive plays and consumer stables. >> you say you backed away from china positions, is that a valuation call or concern about relationship with the united states and china at this point >> you know, there is nothing good about reducing the free flow of trade and goods and services now investment is limited in china. we like the government being more favorable toward tech in china. we view the country as a place where uncertainty is perpetually going to be high with the government interference in the private sector rather than looking at countries to invest in, we seek out companies that are doing well

that are less vulnerable to the government interference around the region outside of china, we are finding good opportunities that are going to benefit from the concerns >> let me ask about about apple. that is the stock that plays into the theyory you laid out apple is reporting later this week does that worry you? is this one of the tech names you pulled away from or is apple in a different situation >> apple caught a lot of attention of the high valuation. all of the valuations quoted, becky, are for the next 12 months of earnings you are not owning apple for 12 months, but for many years it is a name underweight relative to the market we think it is dangerous here if you just track the s&p 500 in the portfolio and you are very overexposed to a handful of

names. the magnificent seven which have taken off with expensive this is a name where you want to be underweight we still own it. we believe apple is part of the u.s. and global growth story for years to come. you don't want to own to the degree in the s&p 500. >> can i ask about the bank of japan and they would allow the ban higher and the bank moving into the market and making purchases of treasuries. what are they doing and what does it mean i'm still trying to figure it out. >> it roiled markets on friday in ways unexpected it caused investors to think there is more pressure for interest rates to rise for longer term. that was new you had to see an adjustment in

that the move to greater flexibility is understandable and they have less control of the yield curve. they want to be positioned for that flexibility to source the funds they need. >> as we head toward jobs report on friday, the july jobs report, there is all this talk about the economy potentially being in for a softer landing a lot more people are believing it than a month ago. are you a believer in that will this trend continue for the market based on what we see in the economy or is this most men -- momentum play with not as much money on the sidelines? >> i'll put my economist hat on here for a second, becky the consumer is surprisingly strong inflation is coming down core pce inflation, which is a

strong signal of what with dev -- what develops the next several months is double where the fed wants inflation. we know the fed has more work to do we know how much pressure needs to stay on the liquidity market. if the market is building in rate cuts for early next year, that may be premature. we pushed out our recession if it comes we have been in the camp that the economy is strong and people are underestimating the consumer and look at housing. we have been on board with the housing trade for many months. we see the shortage of new houses and we recognize that a soft landing is possible we also recognize the fed has still a lot of work to do. investors should be prepared for

interest rates to remain higher for longer and to cap potential for the broad market rally which doesn't mean there are not opportunities there if you look for lower valuation and income paying stock. >> joanne, good to see you thanks for running through the range of categories with us. good to see you. >> you bet coming up, we have more coming up here on "squawk box. yellow notifying workers over the weekend that its shutting down three years ago, the company was critical to the supply chain and anhoanwi ela wderal bailout. frk lld llxpinhat happens next when we return. >> announcer: squawk planner is brought to you by workday. the hr system for a changing world. co-workers stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business.

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we have news this morning. freight trucking company yellow is shutting down the company notifying workers it is halting operations and closing all locations. frank holland is here with more on this. frank. what's going on? >> andrew, the bankruptcy means $5 billion in freight volume is up for grabs that is 3 million shipments from yellow customers like walmart or home depot overall, this disruption is boosting other companies in the less than truckload space. that's where several companies have i temptems in the same truk a common saying in transports with the carriers expected to get the yellow volume at premium. in four months, we swung from

recession to dow transports trading close to a 52-week high. trucking rates have bottomed and now heading toward an upswing and they are negative year over year, but look at these tough comps. the supply chain continues to normalize. a number of tailwinds in the second half include the summer produce and fall harvest season and holiday shopping season. and economists say they appear to be reversing. back to yellow the shutdown could have 30,000 workers potentially looking for work many are truck drivers which is creating an influx of labor to help the margins trucking pace spiked in the pandemic as companies competed for drivers to handle elevated demand and last week, citi put out a

list of companies for the disruption fedex and knight-swift looking for capacity which is expecting to tighten after the shutdown of yellow andrew >> frank, can we go back to the issue of the bailouts? i think this is an issue for the industry itself as a political policy question. a company that took the bailouts and got the bailouts and now fallen into bankruptcy how much money have they taken do we know what happened there what fallout do you imagine? >> they took about $700 million in government assistance the rest of it is hard to figure out. it was two things hang appening. one yellow is a transformation of the company they combined business units and did different things the company was trying to

transform itself and faced the disruption in recent weeks, they asked to defer payments to the pension fund for the teamsters that created other risks with the teamsters threatening to strike a lot of forces impacting the company at the same time i don't know if this is a read-through to other companies in the transport space >> how much was this leverage situation? >> the company did have a lot of debt as part of the plan some other issues, according to economists, it was operations. they were not operating in the efficient way. it is a cyclical business. pay spikes and volumes declined. i don't know if they forecasted this shift from goods to services you see a lot of companies had really prepared for increased

volume from ecome pmerce and th economy going strong at the same time, we saw ralt i -- rate increases a lot of forces weighing on the company. >> frank, the idea of the teamsters union which increased the issue in the recent weeks which all of the retailers and other companies that needed shipping moved elsewhere that was the end of things with the teamsters there. is yellow a different situation from what we saw with other strike potentials? is this because of the debt load and failure to pay pension is this what happens with a strike i'm trying to see how unique this yellow situation is. >> a different situation with the reasons to strike. teamsters and u.p.s. were threatening for a new contract the issue for yellow was pension. yellow was in financial distress

and they asked to defer pension payments which created the situation for the teamsters concerned about the pension benefits that is a concern with the bankruptcy of yellow >> okay. frank holland, i appreciate it and helping us through all of it. >> complicated situation one is for the stocks in the space should get a temporary boost. what happens to the loads long term walmart and home depot want to solidify the capacity before the holiday season >> you are concerned >> an issue if your company is bankrupt and questions of the pension. issues on the human level, of course, andrew i don't want to minimize that. the stocks and supply chain as well are there other jobs other carriers are looking for drivers and supply chain workers

of workers. i was looking at the details some will have two weeks of severance. others depending on how long they have been with the company. >> frank, thank you. >> thank you when we come back, no relief from the heatwave in much of the country. triple digit temperatures putting stress on power grids. we have that story next. later, we will talk to rrrmer energy secretary rick pey. "squawk box" will be right back. - they've left us a gift. - [soldier] i think we misjudged them. - i love horses. (birds chirping) - [soldier] we should open the gate. - let's see what charlotte thinks. - [narrator] at crowdstrike, we monitor trillions of cyber events to detect threats and prevent breaches before they happen to keep your business from becoming history. we stop cyberattacks. we stop breaches. we stop a lot of bad things from happening. crowdstrike. protection that powers you.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here at the nasdaq market site in times square. dow would open up 24 points- higher 2/3 of the u.s. population are under heeat alerts where th temperatures are expected to reach triple digits. several power grids issued

warnings texas and midwest and mid-atlantic here to talk about the challenges ahead is tim fox. the vice president of research tim, let's talk this through i nknow there have been extreme situations with demand on the grids. is the grids up to the task? >> last week and this week is an event that can keep grid operators awake at night high temperatures across wide areas of the u.s. for long periods of time. record breaking heat puts record-breaking demand on the grid the market operators have handled this event fairly well. >> i haven't heard too many issues of severe breakdowns or power outages. >> corrective actions taken to encourage customers to reduce demand before a supply

inadequacy to help avoid taking more is v-- more severe actions >> what does buffering do? >> markets have capacity reserves they keep more capacity available even if it is not likely to be used in order to account for events of high stress what they did in this event or the quickest steps were called on consumers, particularly energy factories to reduce demand the customers get paid to do so. that allowed them to reduce the peak to keep the full grid operating. >> the plants are paid not to operate? i thought it was more of a stick approach if you are operating, you are paying higher prices. >> the demand response the customers which are energy intensive benefit by choosing to

reduce demand. >> where across the country would you say the biggest potential for breakdown is who has the strongest grid and weakest grid california and texas has patch work problems because we have seen problems in the past. have you been able to improve on the situations >> they have been. i think those are two good examples they both experienced recent events the past couple years texas is interesting because they have done well so far as i noted, they issued alerts, but not outages. the issue with texas is a large population growth. a lot of people are moving to that state the state needs to ramp up quickly. one of the bills the state enacted this year was a law that provides low cost interest loans to power plants to natural gas power plants that come online.

the state is trying to respond in california, we're seeing a different approach obviously california is a lot more green the state has more of a green objective. the state was looking to deploy more energy storage to support the state's high solar and wind. >> okay. is it working? when i think of california, i think of the green initiatives in it is not going to be managed and, by the way, their grid, i think of the electricity grid being one they have not invested in over the years. from what i hear from people, look, that is a dangerous situation if you want to get into it because you have to raise rates if you want to invest and bulk up that grid is that still the case >> that is still the case. california is dealing with the power prices getting higher and higher particularly at the retail level consumers are paying more for the reliable grid. california faces unique issues

with wildfires in this occurrence, the california grid has operated without having to have forced ou outages. >> when it comes to texas, it is a different situation there. that is deregulation you have small players not all working in conjunction is that still the situation or have they gotten better with the overarching way with the stressors of the heat situation? >> the grid operates as a market the power plants to get online and stay online. there are huge swings in prices. we saw prices 8 to 10 times higher in texas. natural incentive to operate. >> is that for consumers, too? i pay 8 times to 10 times i paid months ago >> there is a lag. it is set by the most expensive

plant needed to operate. customers, retail electricity bills, we reflect the higher prices paid today. it is a question of how soon >> that sounds like a situation for massive backlash in texas, you were getting charged completely outrageous prices that no consumer can expect or be able to pay. >> right that happened to be part of texas' deroderegulatory program texas, after the 2021 winter storm, is moving away from that and trying to get more customers on a program where the regula regulators can try to smuooth ot the increases over a longer period of time p

you won't see the aggressive swing following the winter storm. >> is that working or is that a backlash we don't find out about for a month or two >> a lot of people will watch the proceedings to see what price hikes consumers will see it can encourage policymakers to get involved in texas and elsewhere. >> tim, i want to thank you. sounds like an issue that we need to check in with you as we continue to get the details. >> thank you pleasure to be here. >> thank you andrew, did you see this park operators are battling extreme heat you can't get more people to do this more investment in water park and indoor rides i would not want to wait in line

in 100 degrees. >> it is hotter outside. in case you didn't know. >> it broke here it is beautiful today. >> sure. on the whole, it is hotter outside. coming up, squawk booze news first half profits taking a hit in asia. and you can follow the lesonatt squawk pod and listen any time. we're coming right back an

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shares of heineken sliding in the netherlands overnight the company selling 5.6% less beer in the first half of the year than a year ago profit fell 8.8% the brewer is cutting the 2023 forecast result in asia was effected by a slowdown in vietnam. operating profit there fell by 1/3 still, heineken saying it expects a strong turn around from the profit in the second half of the year we will see. i have been drinking less hei heineken. >> you drink heineken? >> not all the time. >> it's a skunky beer to me.

i'm okay with the amstel light next time you open it, smell it. >> i'm okay with it. >> personal preferentice when we come back, a big weekend for "barbie" and "oppenheimer." we have the story of the box office coming up after the break. reminder, you can watch or listen to us live any time just check out the cnbc app. i was born on the south side of chicago. it has been a long road, but now i'm working for schwab. i love to help people understand the world through their lens and invest accordingly. you can call us christmas eve at four o'clock in the morning. we're gonna always make sure that you have all of the financial tools and support to secure your financial future. that means a lot for my community and for every community.

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welcome back to ""squawk

box. disney's "haunted man cmansion. was overshadowed by "oppenheimer" and "barbie. the global phenomenon invigorating the box office pushing the gross to over $1.3 billion. that is the best level since 2016 i want to talk more about the weekend box office and the strike and how it is impacting a number of films and slates with matt bellon oi of puck news matt, it is great to see you let's start with the disney picture and how much of this is about what is happening inside disney and the creative juices inside of disney and the se

seasonality of where we are and no promotion with the actors strike tell me about the mix. >> it is all a factor. this movie just got run over by the "barbenheimer" phenomenon. we are used to the past studios bowing down to disney with the summer movie tent poles and people scurrying and get out of the way of the disney movies the disney movies have been upstaged by other movies we saw it earlier this summer with "little mermaid" did not perform overseas like it was supposed to. we saw it with the "indiana jones" movie with a $300 million budget we saw with "haunted mansion" which was expected to do big

business you have "barbie" and "oppenheimer" running circles around disney. >> how much is that about the creative picture and the publicity that effectively was a factor with the strike >> it is all a factor. i do think disney has a creative issue here they have been running playbook of let's retake the hits and take the old rides and make a point-by-point bland movie base on that. what the audience is saying is they want expectations to be challenged and to defy the expectations to do something creatively interesting. it is interesting because disney had the opportunity with "haunted mansion" to make a version directed by del toro

he was the director of "shape of water" and has done edgy films they chose not to do the del toro version of the film and went with paint by numbers and . >> holding bob iger, the other bob accountable? >> you can't blame bob chapek that happens at disney this project has been in development for many, many years at disney. even when iger wasn't ceo he was still running the creative a number of things with the distribution of disney movies that arguably caused audiences to expect them to be at home rather than in theaters. i don't think you can blame him

for the creative on the flop. >> matt, what's the backlog at disney, what kind of films do they have coming up? more of the same all of this has been affected by the strikes, but what do they have that's different from what you've laid out. >> they have a snow white remake that's currently done and ready to come out. they have a marvel films, a sequel to captain marvel and that's more of the same marvel stuff, they've got a couple of avengers movies that have been delayed by the strike. but there's not a lot on the disney slate, we have another avatar, not a lot of risk-taking on the disney slate and what we just with barbie and oppenheimer, those movies were big risk

$150 million feminist manifesto disguised as a barbie movie. a those are movies that are hitting the ziet geist not because they're based on well-known disney magic. >> matt, let's talk about the strike, state of play, where you think things really are and the real impact the publicity impact on this particular picture, you saw sony move much of its slate into '24, are we expecting much more of that what do they know that others don't? do you really think that this is going on through that period take us behind the scenes a little bit >> the conversation in hollywood right now, everyone's looking at each other, are we going to push or not push? the movies that were obvious

sell, they needed the stars to sell them. amazon and mgm needed to push the zendaya movie, you need zendaya to sell your zendaya movie. you know what, we're going to push, they have a denzel washington movie, the equalizer 3 that they haven't pushed coming out in december, beyond that, they're looking at the slate and the landscape, okay, even if this strikes settles in september, then you're still looking at a few weeks where they need to get the paperwork done these stars couldn't start promoting until october/november worst case, we're looking into 2024 and you got to start pushing these movie and feeling more pressure at this point, the studios or the actors guild?

another note tries to explain the interim agreement they give and why they think it that's working to help and not extend things they must have some people pushing back. >> they do those interim agreements have been controversial we wrote about this, yeah, granted a hundred of these, hundred movies and shows are able to start back up despite the strike and some of them are big movies with big stars and big money behind them. and the guild is essentially arguing to its members, no, this is good. this is putting pressure on these struck companies, if they see companies like lionsgate, mini studios, not the majors, if they're able to get up and start making movie they're in a better position competitively against

the struck competitors that puts them in a situation where they lost a big project that could go to major studio. >> matt, i want to keep on the strike i also wanted to talk about the other disney piece news this morning, iger talking to kevin mayer and others about what he's going do with some of these linear challenges. >> iger has brought on two of the heir apparents that were supposed to take over disney in the past, kevin mayer and tom stags, thehe's looking to these guys who previously once ran the direct consumer segment for disney and the other was cfo and

coo. he's looking to these guys to help him figure out what to do with these linear channels that he wants to sell in that cnbc interview. he's looking at espn because he wants to bring in a strategic partner to bring money or content distribution and help espn to compete with the tech giant. he's looking to guys that he's worked with in the past. >> he's looking to them, he's talking to a lot of people obviously trying to understand, to get advice from different people and looking to find partners, they obviously have, you know a big wallet in the form of blackstone behind them are we talking about them being partners meaning acquiring some of these assets or partnering on some of these assets is that what we're talking about? >> no, right now that's not. >> just friends who are taking

phone calls. >> they're official advisers they're more than friends. they're not actively negotiating to take on assets. this is a consulting arrangement with both these men, they're brought in to help him figure out -- >> as potential successors again. >> that's the speculation. because disney watchers will see this, these guys were up for ceo in the past, iger pushed them aside and both of them left the company and potentially this could be something that we talk about in a couple of years if this works out this is just these guys coming in to essentially advise, as advisers, on what to do with these assets. >> paid advisers >> yes my understanding is that they are paid >> matt, we appreciate it.

congrats on all of the scoops. we look forward to talking to you again soon >> thank you. when we come back, we'll talk about the odds of a soft landing for an economy and later, white house economic adviser jared bernstein lloin us at 8:30 eastern time squawk box will be right back.

good morning markets set to end july with solid gains. the busiest week of earnings season has arrived, finally. we'll have breakdown of what you can expect in the upcoming month and where you should be putting your money to work oil on track for its biggest monthly gain in a year what's driving that move plus, apple and amazon set to report this week, we'll break down the two big tech names. the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now

good morning welcome back to "squawk box. let's show u.s. equities fie churs at hour. the dow up 47 points s&p 500 open higher as well. the nasdaq which was in the red turning green just about moments ago, you saw it happen live right now, we'll see how that moves around throughout the rest of the morning treasuries, the 10 year and take a look at 2-year as well 10-year at 3.975 2-year at 4.85 crypto, lots of questions about coinbase, interesting story in "the financial times" this morning about coinbase and the s.e.c. bitcoin, sitting under 30,000

now for a couple of weeks. don has a look at this morning's pre-market movers. i thought last week was the busiest week of earnings, i guess this week is the busiest week, my guess is you got to have people on the street reacting to what happened last week and what happens this week. >> we had the busiest week this week, the busiest day was in the previous week. fundamental analysts breakdown that's happening right now with regard with the fund tmtal picture, we'll start with a call out of morgan stanley on shares of salesforce the business software and cloud computing company, around 8,000 shares of volume, they're downgrading to an equal weight. so they like the longer term picture but think most of the near-term positive stories for

salesforce, like price increases for products were already priced into the stock you got shares of general electric moving between gains and losses just around 40,000 shares of volume, this is analysts over at oppenheimer they're breaking that down to a perform rating to an outperform before the they cited the recent stock gains really putting valuations more in line with the fundamental picture. auto-related industries coming out of jeffries. they cut the automaker from a hold to a buy. lowered the target price the headwinds in electric vehicle at ford, a little volatile on trades share of carvana, down about maybe unchanged at this point.

it gets downgraded to an underperform to a hold $30 from 55. they think that con essential ses estimates for the automobile is too high. carvana's shares have been massively to the upside over the course the year to date period becky. >> that's been a tricky one to watch. every time i think i understand what's happening at the company you kind of get your direction changed. domest dom, what are you looking forward to this week >> it has to be the sheer, i'm a numbers guy, when it comes to apple and amazon, you're talking about a disproportionate number of impact on the market

narrative between those two companies. for apple, kind of curious to see, we've been talking so much about the iphone picture, any kind of commentary whether they're going to see the ability to raise prices for iphones, profit expansion there and for amazon i think it's all about whether or not there's this artificial intelligence tail wind they can ride with regard to that kind of thing. those two stocks will have so much of an impact. >> and the narrative where we stand with the markets dom, thank you meantime, after some strong economic data last week the street wondering if it's going to be a soft landing or any landing at all steve joins us with a rapid update with the forecast for the current quarter. >> pretty strong, andrew surprisingly strong consumer spending has economists sharply boosting

the outlook for economics. if there's going to be a slowdown or any landing at all economists boosting their opening forecast for the third quarter to a trend line 1.7%, up from 0.3%, a stalled speed that we registered back in january, this comes under serious underestimation in the u.s. economy. the yellow was the old forecast in june and the blue is the current forecast for all of the quarters, the slowdown now has been pushed ahead again, this time to zero growth in the fourth quarter a warning, it's way early in the quarter, really not that much data and these forecast will and can be revised consumers don't need to do much for spendi ing to be healthy. because june spending was strong

what's persistent these days is the street keeps underestimating the u.s. economy, you can't get a better economy, the second quarter growth forecast estimated in our january cnbc rapid update up to 0.3 came in last week as you remember when the government reported gdp at 2.4. specifically it seems it's the consumer that surprises to the upside, generally it's the recession that never seems to come but only a quarter or two away they're much better when it comes to their inflation forecast one way to think about what's happening, forecasters keep thinking inflation is going to take away from real growth as of now they see inflation coming in 3.4, dropping slowly to 2.9% moody's among those who boosted,

a government shutdown in fall and a sharp cutback in spending could slow growth. declining inflation year over year growth in real disposable income is at pandemic level. we got to watch the oil story and the commodities story for concern that inflation might come back. >> steve, i have a couple of questions, the bank of japan, but while you're talking about the economy, i wonder what you think of the yellow situation, with yellow saying it's going to shut down, telling the teamsters they're going to shut down, that's 30,000 jobs that are at risk, that's a big deal, does that have an impact on the broader economy where a lot of those workers will be able to be picked up from other shipping companies that pick up the

slack? >> you know, it could. it could show up in the data, in a spike in the job please claims data, when i looked at that story over the weekend, we knew this was happening and we also know that customers had shifted their shipping demands to other companies, there's definitely dislocation, but i asked myself the question, is still a need for this shipping and this service? i think there is my suspicion is they'll get picked up. you know, becky, there are a lots of things that happen like hurricanes and things, often they have very little impact overall on the big ma krshgsmac that in the united states. let me ask you broadly about the bank of japan, what they said on friday, what they're doing today with buying some of these treasuries, what are they doing and what does it mean?

>> you know when i look at that story my thinking was, first of all, i'm not exactly sure what policy is in japan right now, my initial thought was they got cold feet so on friday they loosened the ban and then it spiked up. they looked at that spike, they said too much. they came and bought they're loosening their control over bonds a little bit and by extension over the currency, but i think it sounds to me or seems to me by their action this morning they want to manage that transition and do so by coming in when there are spikes if this was going on here in the u.s., we don't manage the 10-year here, the fed would come

forward and say, here's the deal, we're going to let the yield go from here to here, we're going to manage that transition, i haven't heard japan say they're going to do that, a message to traders the bank of japan is not going to allow this to kind of free fall when it comes to yields. >> they're not even saying the new boj governor uwate, is saying, yeah, this isn't the end of zero interest rates it sure seems like it is >> no, it's not -- it's yield curve control, he's saying it's not the end, we're loosening it up we made a big transition friday. they looked at the market trade, this is too much too fast they decided to manage the process. >> okay, steve, thank you.

when we come back, markets are set to wrap up july with strong gains and this week will be a busy one with earnings and the jobs report. futures, the dow futures have picked up over the course of the last hour, indicated up by 52 points we'll talk markets and your money right after the break. and later goldman sachs will talk oil's monthly gain in more than a year. "squawk box" will be right back. (vo) verizon small business days are coming. from august 7th to the 13th. now is the time to partner with our experts. get started today with verizon business. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. and now, trade in your current phone, and get up to $1000 off the new galazy z flip 5 and z fold 5. all right, take a look at shares of u.p.s. this morning. down by $2 a decline of 1% credit suisse downgrading that stock. that call is based on labor concerns while u.p.s. has struck a deal to avert a strike, the increase in wage for workers could be a headwind for the company. $1.50 to $1.75 annualized drag on earnings per share. take a look at the stock this morning. down by about 1%. halfway through earnings season better than expected so far.

want to get an update on the retail investor and where they're finding value. have most retail investors been playing if you will -- have they been in this rally >> it's been really interesting, andrew here's what we have seen from our side, over the month, more people playing individual equities for a long time we'd talk and our clients got up to almost 50% where they were trading the index index-based like qqq more normalized 30% to 35% on those etfs and the rest being individual equity names.

it started of course with the usual suspects if you will being apple, tesla, nvidia, their trading picking up, apple and tesla a lot of bullish activity over the last few months over the last few weeks, microsoft and netflix, how much they've picked up, if i go back and i think about mean is stock time it started with apple and microsoft, microsoft of course people hold because it's such a big stock but not one people thought they have had. the trading activity measured by equity and option activity is up 75% over the last two weeks for microsoft. up 125% over the last two weeks in netflix netflix being a bit more bullish than microsoft activity. i find it really interesting and it's the one thing that makes me think that the rally could last.

people are starting to participate a bit more in the individual equities, that's usually a good sign for us going forward. >> what's the play in terms of the etf world, mutual fund wo world? >> i'm sorry, do you what's in the play -- >> meaning, lot of folks are now investing on individual equity basis, but still how much of the market is still moving into mutual funds, moving into etfs and other index investment. >> reporter: it's just become more normalized. for a while as i said it was just so high, because people didn't know what to do with their money. they didn't have trust if you will with the individual names we're seeing more trust in the

individual names earnings drive markets the fact is with 80% of the companies coming in above expectations albeit low expectations in many cases, they're still beating the day. the other part that people are underestimating is that many of us, you know, steve referenced this a little bit, many people expected this to be an earnings season where it was like, okay, we did all right now but not so good going forward we haven't seen that we've actually seen a fairly bullish tone by cfos and coos on the conference calls giving people motivation to say, this is something that could be good until the end of the year that's not to say that we're not going to see some down tick. when you see a vix of 1330 like

we're seeing right now, it's something to keep your eye on. but overall this has been interesting. >> the other thing i wanted to ask you about is crypto, bitcoin, sitting just under 30,000 what have you been seeing in terms of inflow and outflow. >> many interest in crypto, we started to see more. this is one product that is so price-driven as we got the over 25 -- >> why hasn't this moved if you look at this chart, compared to the s&p 500, the dow or nasdaq, it's been basically flat if not down at the time the rest of the world is rallying. should we putting up a fed chart against it >> that may be

it may be a reluctance because there's some regulatory, you know, questions, if you will there. many people are going to stay on the sidelines and see what happens. the third part of it, we need to break 30,000 we went through 25,000 lot of momentum there. we get to this 27,000 to 29,000 we've leveled off. again, this is an incredibly price-driven instrument. much more than many others that we see and it's truly a momentum trade in my opinion. >> always appreciate it. thank you, sir. >> thank you. when we come back, senator tim scott seeing a wave of donors, while florida governor desantis is struggling in the polls. we got details next.

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what's going on? >> here we go. cnbc following the money race of 2024 what we're looking at here is coming into this race, right, coming into this year, there were groups of very wealthy people who were thinking, florida governor ron desantis was going to be this guy who could defeat donald trump in the primary and go on and defeat and likely beat president joe biden in the primary so what they're looking is at alternatives one of those people is senator tim scott. key reasons is, one, desantis hasn't moved up anywhere in the polls versus trump, neither has tim scott by the way, but there's the other piece of this, too, policy differences, really key policy differences, this event has been created, one of the co-host is a goldenman sachs

former executive big names. connected to wall street who are coming in to help. >> what's the missing piece with desantis right now. >> i just think he came in with a lot of fanfare and there's a belief that there's a lack of enthusiasm from gop voters, a lack of enthusiasm, but again it goes on the policy front, ron desantis when he came into the race, signed that six-week abortion ban bill, that's turned off a lot of wealthy donors, not a lot, he raised 26 million bucks in the last quarter, but there's growing contingent of people, people like steve schwartzman who gave to tim scott in the last quarter -- >> what about glenn young kinne,

the virginia governor, he hasn't announced. >> a lot of people hoping he jumps in, actually, i'm not going to run this year, one more year to this election cycle. the key year is 2024 when you look at that he had a meeting recently in aspen, colorado, within that there was no ruling out, but that's indicative -- >> how much money do they need now in terms when you look out at the advertising plans and other strategies, what do you need now >> well, we've gotten through the second quarter, now we're getting through this third quarter here, going forward, what type of budget are we looking for for a candidate -- >> and having to spend it. folks thought desantis was misspending his money.

>> right tim scott going into this next quarter has $20 million on hand. ron desantis has $7 million. why is that, because ron desantis burned through cash, one reason is his private travel no indication that private travel is going to eliminated entirely how much is a private flight going from pennsylvania to hamptons one way in his world they think they still need to do this private travel the governor needs this for security purposes. you're looking at a budget, at least north of 20 million for these candidates to roll on here >> even if these other candidates get any momentum, the republican party in california changed its rules you're going win all of the state delegates based on who's winning the state not going by county by county

and district by district that helps trump. >> some of these key states the rules are set up right now for the front-runner in this case trump to kind of dominate once we get to some of these primaries and caucuses and i think these other candidates, you know, they're saying look, we want to have a debate with this guy he doesn't want to get on the debate stage. if they can't debate him on the debate stage they're going to have to find another way to take him on is that really moving the needle in some of these states? i don't think so i don't see it yet. >> thank you, sir. >> thank you. up next, goldman's jeff kirby will join us to talk oil also coming up at the top of 8:00 lazard ceo-elect peter orszag will join us.

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check out shares of csx now. after rbc downgraded the stock rbc saying that coal wins, a big portion of csx's revenues come from coal production you're looking at that stock off a little over 2% oil prices up for the fifth straight week, right now the price of crude oil, let's check things out, wti is at 81.35, up another 1% and you can see the one-month climb, a gain of about 15%. we want to bring in goldman sachs' global head of securities -- we're well below

where we thought we would be at this point in july. >> the biggest factor was what happened in china. a lot of people would say expectations around russia supply but those were expectations. china, you know, coming down to zero covid policy, demand crated in the earlier part of this year, it's now rebounded back up to around 15.8 million barrels per day which is rather healthy for july, combine that with the recent announcements of more stimulus on the property sidei taking a very pessimistic view of china into a positive think of the weakness at the beginning of year being driven

by china the other factors that are important, one, demand outside of china is holding up far better than most feared particularly around concerns around a recession, a lot of the strength recently again is investors coming back to this space and then the other factor that i would put into this is what's going on the products side ultimately this is in-use demand product margins very strong. prices historically, the gasoline prices, prices are moving up to extremely high levels that's going to put a lot of pressure on prices at the pump as we begin to look forward. i think the real reason we were so weak at the end of last year was driven by weakness in china and a lot of that has shifted and that's one of the big factors. let's not forget opec, very aggressive in the production, compliance out of russia,

compliance out of the group, very significant, which is leading to a deficit, you know, inventories in july look they declined around 2.2 million barrels per day that's big, that's just reinforcing the potential for more upside. >> as a result you're sticking with your price target for the year, what is it for brent $93. >> for brent our 12-month target is 93. but, you know, the question you asked is how much is this going to go into products and crude? if more of it goes to crude there's upside relative to the 93 within reasons we're keeping a lid on 93 right now is that you have -- you'r starting point is higher -- the second factor is interest rates, historically high, going back two-decade highs, that creates a drag on

commodities so we'll see what happens over that time period. >> really quickly, we're almost out of time, jeff, when you look at refining that's been an issue especially with the recent heatwave, brought some refineries down, that's why we've seen these higher gas prices at the pump for consumers. does that continue >> absolutely. you know, because, you know the refining kit around the world is underinvested in, it doesn't have the upgrading capacity to turn unwanted products into final products and because it's running at such a high rate the probability of another outage the probability those events are just increasing with those high

utilization rates. at the core across all commodities is this whole idea of the revenge economy >> okay, jeff, thank you >> great, thanks for having me. when we come back two big tech names that are set to report this week, we'll be talking apple and amazon right after this break. then, a closer look at how a.i. is being applied to healthcare and the medical field. mlb partners with t-mobile to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. aaa relies on t-mobile's network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. and we're helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

apple and amazon are two of the big headliners in another busy week of earnings report scheduled to report on thursday. shares of these megacaps are up more than 50% so far this year i know what this has been signalling to everybody, but from a technical perspective, where do things stand? amazon up 59%, apple up just over 50% what does this mean? >> so, becky, the charts still look absolutely traffic for both apple and amazon and again they've been powering this

higher, 10% of the overall s&p 500 year to date lifting the markets. if you break apart first the chart of apple stock is continuing to trend very well, back above 50. again we still think there's more upside. raised the price target of it to 220. >> what would be a troubling sign is there anything that would tell you beforehand, what happens if one of these stocks just tanks because if there's something that people don't like. >> the charts do a pretty good job of looking forward, anticipating for us what we think is going to play out, right now i'm not seeing any divergence in term of momentum indicators at this point in time things we'd be typically looking for the charts roll over, start to break some uptrends, you know

neither of those things are happening for apple or amazon. in fact if you look at the chart of amazon, we've been stuck in a three-year consolidation range and more recently we just broke above 200-day moving average, suggests to us that there's still a decent upside for amazon to get back to the old highs becky, we're confident that these two companies are going to do well with these reports when we set it back in december was pretty controversial, but it's playing out like we thought it was going to and still more upside for equities markets. >> i understand the whole idea you're charting things, you can catch momentum that works in absence of any news if there were suddenly some news that

disappointed the markets, charting wouldn't pick up on concerns on something that was going to happen on an earnings call, or would it, floating out in the ether before they even said it. >> a lot of very smart investors out there and a lot of this information gets priced into the market real time watching shows like this is helpful for the average investors and a lot of smart people baking in a lot of different scenarios. to help steady people's emotions and put it into perspective when their making higher highs and higher lows, you're back the moving average there's something constructive happening. longer-term trend is higher. where we got to pay attention to. >> you're talking more broadly

the markets, you're raising your s&p 500 -- >> absolutely, becky, one of the things that technicians like to look at is all-time new highs and if we go through, when you look at the s&p 500 year to date we got about 15.7% of all the stocks in the s&p 500 that have made an all-time new high year to date. when i have conversations with investors about these stocks making all-time new highs they're kind of like, what they have the mindset that things are bad, earnings aren't going to come out well and they're concerned about the fed, but at this point in time you got 15.7% of all stocks in the s&p 500 making an all-time new high which suggests to me that there's still more room for equities market to run. >> the s&p closed at 85 -- 4825.

>> by year end 4825. again, so many stocks that are making new highs it's pushing the overall breadth of this market higher. so much a focus on the magnificent seven when you look at the percentage of stocks in various industry groups making new highs believe it or not it's led by industrials and consumer cyclicals. third on the list is technology. again, we've had a tremendous amount of pushback on our call throughout this year, but, again, we stocks are doing what they're doing, price action tells us something significant is playing out and we want to stick with that trend and this's w what's happening right now >> thank you >> thank you, becky. coming up, scott gottlieb will join us to talk about how

technology is changing doctors' visits a conversation you don't want to miss we're coming right back with you. with the hottest brands, like nike, jordan, on, carhartt, and hoka. and, with even more options at dicks.com, it's never been easier to sport your style.

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here to break down what this means, dr. scott gottlieb. good morning >> good morning. how are you? >> in the a.i. universe, what do you think the biggest opportunity is but let's go biggest challenge? >> right now you see a lot of organized machine learning, looking at data sets for things like radiology, pathology, evaluating slides, also in cardiology looking at e.k.g.s. that's been under development for a while. google, for example, has something that can look in the back of the eye, images of the eye and diagnose diabetic retinopathy. the real big opportunity is to use language models to do

patient interactions the technology is there right now. >> when i call the bank, i have to go through the crazy codes. you've got to be kidding me. >> we're still not at a point where a lot of the large language models can could things i call mission critical. they're not good with math, they still hallucinate. there are inflexion and a couple of others that are working on programs that instead of having a psychiatrist, you would actually just interact with -- becky's laughing there are studies that so the computer is more empathetic than humans people enjoy the experience more of actually interacting with an a.i., if you will, than with another human being, doctor. >> it's got to be different than these things i talk to >> one of the challenges is there's not a lot of large

clinical data sets to train these models on. and they've been trained to small models if you look at k-health and you go on there, the first five, six, seven questions you get asked will be through an a.i. interface in many cases and then it will default to a doctor and pro void structured information to the physician making that transition to having it fully automated and allowing the a.i. to handle the interaction soup to nuts, that's a real regulatory challenge. what we're going to do is look at simple interactions those might be the first to get approved, medicine refills or pain on europeanation or -- >> so the dream of all all of this, though, is to get more accurate readings in all of these issues and to do it more cheaply. i imagine they will do the

readings potentially better than a human eventually the question is what's going to happen to the cost we're all waiting for some magical thing to come down from the heavens and change the cost of health care >> the reason why costs in health care don't respond to productivity inputs is because at the end of the day you need a physician our provider to have an interaction with the patient. in industries that are labor intensive, you can't bring down cost with technology inputs. as you move toward cap iation, more processes will adopt these tools. right now we pay on physical labor and medicines through medicare when you're capitated, you want to withdraw -- >> i want to say a couple things i always want to work with a

doctor will there be a time, though, where this kind of adds to the differentiation between good health care and pad health care? those who get great health care and hose who don't it seems to me this will be rolled out first in the really high-end areas it's not going to make its way out to the other places. if you've got a doctor who is getting helped by a.i., that means the haves and have-notes -- >> i'm not sure if the bifurcation will be there but you will adoption based on that premise. i think it's people who lock for convenience and want a quicker interaction. do you feel comfortable that you're interacting with an a.i. chat box and then it defaults from a physician -- >> i guess

any way i use this, whether it be cvs to check on a prescription and in the end i always have to say speak to the pharmacist bus they screw up on it yesterday i had to say speak to a customer service represent tip, they don't translate any of that the tough we already use we're really bad at. >> it's not being used well in a lot of settings. if you went to some of these startups that are, you do have a little bit more of a seamless interaction. these teels have gotten more intelligent. that you will continue to expand as we get more processing dit why. right now they're very limited you're going to see buildouts possibly >> what do you think the true promise of this is

is this look automated cars? with sad it was back in 2016 are we talkingnext year, about 2030 the yes is i think the regulation for very simple interactions, people are going it need to seek approval and try to carve off simple interactions. 8% of all calls to a primary care physician are around muscloskeleton pain. you can car and try to get regulatory approval around nose. dough flex sirks when it seems more complicated >>nd the patient has to spend more times maneuvering their self about >> we have to check out "squawk

box.

good morning it is the final day of july. stocks ready ito close out a hot month with hot gains

fueled by that 13-month winning streak and we'll get you primed for apple results in the days ahead. and can the energy grid take the heat across the country? we'll ask rick perry as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin we've been seeing progress at least for the bulls. the s&p and nasdaq are both in the green. s&p up by 7 points, the nasdaq up by about 23 points as we get

towards the end of this very strong month for equities. let's take a look at what's been happening in the treasury market this morning right now it looks like the 10-year is right around 4 park, 3.96 >> andrew? >> we have one of the first take following last week's fed decision minneapolis reserve president saying they could see an update in unemployment. kashkari saying he wasn't sure if the fed was done raising interest rates it is the end of the road for trucking company yellow after failing to refinance and reorganize a billion dollars in debt they specialized in combining

shipments to different customers in single trailers in the another painful weekend for disney if he box office. it cost manchin $124 million to make any money it's still about barbie and oppenheimer. oppenheimer is from comcast parent company $93 million in the second weekend for barbie and 46 million for oppenheimer. >> did you see any of the movies yet? >> i need to to do it. i have not had time. at least not yet >> on minutes to go. i want it get over to mike

santoli to see what he's seeing this morning >> happy monday. it seems like the false to this grien has you have about 3% for the s&p 500. ul it are lagss have to then better we were on in the s&p on friday. and it's a lesson that sometimes in bull market mode, it's a and june 30th was the last time that we saw a 1% gain and you see that we've continued to pile on a few more kind of move to the -- remember, the all-time

five time. very, very vaguely, if you wanted it draw a line a certain way, it looks like there was this down trend very subtly. now, we were talking about it earlier with jeff curry a little while ago. take a look kpe commodities index. this is actually the bloomberg commodity index. it's not in that danger zone where people worry about us getting become to that point when it was a real driver with high inflation and people struggling to afford things. but it sort of traiting the end

of raises by the way or l woe can find a different eq equilibrium. and equity prices are getting a little stressed after this speak we've had. >> thank you we were just talking to a technician who raised his price target i think his it 48,025 now. >> that's almost the intra day high a lot of let's say we can get there where we were over a year and a half ago the u.s. nominal gdp is up 10% spins then it's not completely out of the question that can you have the market get there, even though it seems like it's a stretch. >> mack, thank you

we'll see you and on october 1st, he'll take over i don't know if you heal kashkari going i'm so curious if you ran, if you were on the fed board. >> andrew, as i think you know for a while, inflation is coming down progressively i think, the market has surprised us good and bad, we should wait and see. but that's the point, we should way ant see. >> i think a lot of that has to do with post-pandemic as opposed

to the fedtightening and i think caution remains warranted. where a park company, it's not entirely clear to me we need a massive or significant increase in unemployment to have inflation to continue to come down it's come down a lout without it everyone who is absolutely confident department weather center saying that about the decline in in flags that's already occurred >> so it sounds like you're in paul krugman's camp, who last week talked about discombobulation and recombobulation postpandemic as the real rb for why we heard inflation come down and perhaps the credit doesn't go to the federal reserve. >> we're going to have to wait for history to write that story but that's where i you would put

my vote right now. absolutely correct be so many issues around supply chains and other things, he said he del nothing is black and white in life is there some middle there >> i think at this point there is a significant amount of monetary policy tightening that has been exerted i would just wait and see how it playing out. the fed has no risk other than by talking about it so frequently that at the can seem luke long-term inflationary markers are excellent, the market thinks it's going to come down there no sort of flashing redesign that the fed is about to lose control of what's happening here so this anxiety that is coming

from the top of policy makers in washington about that very thing and losing control of inflationary process seems to be disconnected from the facts. >> let's talk deal making. lazard and yourself famously within what you call it, bear run, bull run, whatever it's been for ten days. are you geing a sense that the pipeline in terms of deal making is changing? >> it does feel look woor there have been a lot of positive drivers, the energy resolution, reassuring-in and interest rates went up in a year and a half that caused a big divide in

pricing between buyers and sellers. the longer that the price declines in terms of equity values have been place, the easier it is to bridge the gap between buyer and seller and second in what has been financing and uncertainty over that, having to do with how rapidly rates were rising, regardless whether the fed raises rates one or two more times, it's become clear we're not the at the end of the tightening cycle and the third one is anti-trust and regulatory there has been a certain amount of uncertainty introduced in the shift in the biggest bad school. and there have also been a significant number of losses and many boards are starting to to look at that say we'll just have to be prepared in court >> let's drink down that last point, that the sense where the d.o.j. is and ftc is

a lot i mean, i know there's conversations happening. is there anybody you think is willing to pull the trigger and say let's go to court, let's just do this and do you do it now or do you wait until 2024? how much does the election factor into that sort of thing, massive, headline grabbing transactions >> waiting until the presidential election, you're waiting a long time. i do think the tenor on this is shifting so if you've got a deal, especially a vertical deal where the government's loss rate is much higher and tra drugsal ant ethrust directives if you've to the a vertical deal and you have the patience to extend the deal ten-year, life

and time. >> butch: do think that's, the more boards and swing seats will be correctly emboldened to go ahead and have some confidence at the court >> we were talking about health care it's a space that you spend a lot of time thinking about and in particular thinking about how to drive costs down. i'm curious how you think a.i. may impact that and the broader landscape and maybe whether it impacts deal making as well. >> so i did hear that a conversation with my friend ask the gottlieb what i'm really excited about here is plm the opposite of -- there's been a massive reform

and americans have been experiencing a decline in life expectancy one of the more exciting dimensions is the opportunity we may narrow the differences in how health care is practiced with more clinical decision support software and better a.i.-informed processes. i think behind becky's question exactly right. there may be a point in time when it's initially being rolled out where it will widen some of those gaps but i think pretty equickly it will attempt to narrow them. >> peter, one of the things you didn't hear because we ran out of time, but dr. gottlieb was saying as he walked off, the

problem is a lot of the places that can do this don't want to do because they don't want to deal with the regulatory hassle to true to tug and work of the heck providers -- health care proce procedures >> if you told me they would team up with microsoft to work on clinical decision support software and a.i. within the fx system, i would have told you there's no way that's happening. that is happening today. so i think you're right that there are challenges but there's also a lot of promise and it's pretty exciting. >> peter, we want to thank you as always. look forward to seeing you soon. >> good to see you >> thanks. >> when we come back, we're going to speak to form are

energy secretary rick perry about the summer of intention heat and the strain it's been putting on the nation's power grid and a little bit later, is the case for a strong economic comeback you're watching cnbc stay with us

the white house is combing through computer code it thinks chinese actors have hidden inside networks that connect to u.s. military bases and they're not sure about the extent of the problem according to a the "new york times" report the "times" said it's raising fierce that china could move against its neighbor, taiwan back in may, they flagged it in taiwan >> we may be feeling cooler temperatures in the northeast but much of the country is still dealing with an oppressive heat wave

joining us right now to talk about whether america's infrastructure can regularly handle this kind of demand is former energy secretary rick perry. of course he also served they terms as texas governor. thank you for being with us thong, secretary perry what do you think of about how well the grid has been doing >> let me talk about what you just talked about, as saj, having cyber security is one of our real concerns. having that toop of and i just highly recommend that everyone take another look at their cyber security make sure you really got what you think you have look at this very closely. >> let me ask on that point, secretary, do this nation's grid

is prepared. i would guess our energy problems and financial institutions are about the best protected places we have >> becky, good question. but you need a second opinion on this one, let me tell you. this is a fast-moving area it's one that the med guys are going to use and try to penetrate into colonial pipeline, great example of it are, moving energy around, whether it's a liquid product, if you will, wipe lynns. let me just shift over to your original question, this is a really fascinating time in american history you go back 20 years and natural gas was had had 14, $15 an mcl and the cost of lek truss too and always looked ahead and

fossil fuels and particularly natural gas coming online and particularly nuclear has our base loads well, fast forward 20 years and the federal government is using their subsidies, if you will, from my pe secretaryive the renew oblsin change over to wind and solar. in texas, we're 46% relying upon renewables for our distachable energy others will suggest that's too much if the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shy, we're going to be in a real strange, so to speak. so making sure you got the right bound and not letting government

come in and manipulate the market in a way that puts it out of balance and that's what's happened over the course of the years. texas is working really hard to get it back into balance and hopefully we will and we'll get through this summer without a hiccup but the real story here, becky, is that the challenge is going to be not necessarily in the summer but it's in the winter when the renewables are less efficient. and that's something that we got to really look at is in those winter months when wind and solar are not as efficient as they are in the summertime, that's when the real hiccup could occur. >> secretary, i hear your point and i understand the need to have diversity you can will be at germany and he oufr and you can get in a

real pickle if you're overly reliant on one source. but when it comes to problems we've seen with texas in the past, let go back to february 2021 where millions were without electricity for a while. you think. the renewables there have actually performed better than most people had anticipated. >> well, that's not correct. >> i just read an article about it >> but the point is here's where we need to be really focusing. what are the base load places that we need to be incentivizing? you get more of what you incentivize. if you tax more, you're going to get less of it if you incentivize, you're going to get more of it so to speak. so taxing you get less, incent viez you get more.

in the world, they're going to be small monetary reactors, they are very economically feasible i think you're going to see a real focus on that i think if you care about the environment, the current administration says that that's the number one thing that we have in front of us is the environment, and climate, then why aren't you giving the incentives to small modular reactors good question, huh >> i think that's a good question, too. but just to get back to this point, i want to make sure we get it right i was sitting a professor at university of texas who said it was the majority of the lost generation in 2021 in the 2013 was natural gas plants, not wind turbines you're saying that's not true? >> i'm saying that's not true. there's a couple of folks in there i wouldn't put all my

money of not getting it right. i'm not saying the houston chronicle and university of texas would be those two if you go back and look at it, the wind things went down during that period of time. the key is you've got too much renewable. 46% dispatchable on renewables is not the right balance you have to have more base load. >> i'm with you on nuclear long term it's the only way we'll solve all these problems if one day we're going to be pulling carbon out of the air and we'll need -- most democrats and members of gop don't want to do this.

what would have to happen to make this politically palatable? >> it would woulhave to be a grd educational process. i went through the 60s where we saw the mushroom clouds and barry goldwater and the johnson folks with the petals pulling off of the flower and the mushroom cloud from a nuclear weapons attack that along with three mile island, chernobyl, fukushima, there's an education process that that's not the type of nuclear power we're talking about today. these are small and basically built in manufacturing plants and bolted together how many mega watts do you need type of plants that are walk away safe and becoming economically feasible so we ought to be fast forwarding the permitting process on getting this type of

technology into play out there and then we can see some real base load type of power being delivered and zero emissions i thought that's what we were trying to get to >> secretary perry, thank you. this is a great long-term conversation and i think it's one we're going to come back to again and again. we appreciate your time today. when woo e come back, jared bernstein joins us on whether a soft landing is in play for the u.s. economy we'll also talk to him about the labor movement in this country given what we've seen yello today, that company filing for bankruptcy apple and amazon two of the big names on deck. names on deck. we'll be right back.

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last week the fed hiked interest rates for the 11th time in its last 12 meetings. this week it's going to be all about jobs you got friday's labor department report and particularly its wage growth component closely watched by economists and policy makers, trying to figure out if the fed is succeeding in engineering a soft landing for economy, bringing inflation down without

damaging the job market too much joining us is jarrett bernstein a lot more economists are on board with this idea of a soft landing, that inflation can be brought down without completely destroying the u.s. jobs market. i take it you're probably one of those who believes it. >> well, i certainly believe what we've seen in the data flow which has been positive and supportive of a transition the president has been talking about for for a long time. i think what you're saying, though, is if you look at the cpi it was 9%. and now at 3%. that's a huge decline. very important breathing room for families helping to support real weej gains. at the sim time we've given and

p but that combination is historically unique and quite positive for most americans. >> the biggest story we've been following this morning is yellow, one of the nation's oldest and largest trucking companies shutting down. that's 30,000 jobs 22,000 of them are team stares when it comes to labor and some of the demands that they're making is going to be shut down. this is about pension funds payments that they were missing again. what do you think is going on here in. >> it's also a company that through a string of mergers took on more debt than it could handle i think this look look who just

came to a deal it was the same teamsters and a very successful negotiation. one of the very important thing about economic functioning overlooking the macro economy p and shifted their kargo to other providers. nobody likes to see an iconic tern and the job losses that you cited. but this the teamsters actually gave consi considerable. >> it does raise the issue of other strikes and potential strikes taking place the uaw,

whether there will be strikes there and what the u.s. position is they don't want the president getting involved >> first of all, you have the most pro-union president in recent member hi it's important that the president recognizes that unions are key to work gettence by that one one is to run a very tight labor market and we've seen them. the unemployment rate has been below 4% in over a year and a half and 13 million jobs created, about 800,000 in motor vehicling. we have an adjustment agenda,

also a pillar of bidenomics that's helping to provide growth and there are unions pro kentucky, absolutely stay out of them, particularly a to. >> what do you expect on friday just in terms of wage growth that's one of the very important con tomorrow ont yes, do let me instead talk about what we've actually seen in it. we node the fed watches this very carefully because its come possession adjusted unlike the

numbers on this friday and so we have this unique situation where the plasht is cooling it woor trm and so now they are beating cpi and it's real wage gain for american workers at a time when we're seeing in the data flow numbers that are consistent with the kind of tail winds we've been talking about i hesitate to fork ditia flow from last week, the week before that has been very -- hey, jared, i don't know if you had a chance to hear the conversation we had with peter orszag and deal making and a sense among ceos that they may actually

start pursuing deals that perhaps they wouldn't have before because of regulatory concerns but given the flow and the way some of these court cases have now been ruled, which effect or hi this. s the administration have any view of how to regulate deals or not in terms peter is a great friend and always someone i liked to lusen to. in which folks can great and:ng. now, i don't want to get too far into that because i'm not a lawyer in that space by a long shot how, i will say this the administration's both body

language, the forward guidance from the president as well as the kind of guidelines you see always will be worker centered in the sense of macking sure that works are' interests are ten taken care of. what we're seeing is kind of a new type of, you know -- of manifesting corporate power in a way that wasn'ts inly on the proos side holding back laubs can and make sure that workers are getting a fair is that correct? and creased kpe damaging the successive -- your sense is the

administration is just as aggressive a month or two or three ago when some of these calm and say even more aggressive than previously viewed >> yeah, our eye is definitely on and 75% of thofs industries are way more concentrated than they've of many and we don't want o block innovation and commit and whether we're competition, international trade, the and making sure good quality jobs are at the heart of what we support are absolutely the key

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welcome back to "squawk box. the red hot rental market finally starting to crack. weir seeing a major milestone in july diana o'lick joins us with a look at that >> good morning, andrew. apartment rent world went negative for the first time starting to apartment lists. they sell 0.7% from july of last year but it is in doing pun and month to months were up slightly j rap. now, why are rents cooling in because valcke andcies, surpassing the previous peak in

the part of the temperature many there are currently a record number of apartment unit under construction right now so rents are now what was deemed the zoom town and among the bigger service in poreland aurg often were and new york city i'm sorry to say that to you guys. >> do you knowia, it is a milestone. what is your sense of whether you're going to feel it everywhere or in parts of the country. >> i think all reso you won't see rents fall there a mch some of the areas that people are moving around and ut many you

see cranes everywhere with all that supply and strong demand, i don't think we'll be able to eat this pup >> this is what bahr too long. coming up, we'll talk apples and at msin small town investors stay tuned "squawk box" continues after this

welcome back apple and amazon headlining a very big week. and our next guest will be watching and a finance professor at the citadel good morning to you. >> good morning. >> what are you expecting? do you want to take on apple, amazon which first? >> let's talk about apple. apple and amazon are both coming to us on thursday night. >> let's go. >> the way i look at apple first is here's a stock that's already trading at over an over 30 times next year's number and next year's numbers are indicating a pretty big acceleration, after

this year's numbers, which will be down. i don't expect the company to do too much upsiding. there's always a strong chance regardless of economic conditions because apple runs its business so well, they deliver the mail i expect a little bit of up side but when you think about some of the key drivers for them, vision though it's been announced, iphone 15 on the come. i think, as you saw last week with the numbers from meta, and from alphabet, that apple might, even though it's buried in their services revenue line, get a little bit of upside surprise from digital advertising that's been a little bit better for all. but i expect them to be solid, a little bit of upside that's the standard. the stock's getting really expensive. at some point, they're going to have to join the rest of the f.a.n.g.s and be much more aggressive about articulating their a.i. strategy. >> let's talk about that a.i. strategy they have not, thus far, explained it how important to you is it that

they explain it early? they've often been late, but they've gotten it right, and that's something they've argued for a very long time, which is they've watched lots of tech companies go out there, try all sorts of things that are somewhat experimental, if you will, and then they land the plane in a way that sometimes the others don't >> that's an excellent point they've always been able to deliver the mail, particularly, people don't realize this, now that tim cook's in charge, even more so than his predecessor so, i think what they'll do is talk about the efficiencies intern internally that a.i. brings. i don't know with their product and services line-up if they can tell the tale that some of the other f.a.n.g.s can tell about revenue opportunities, but efficiencies within the company to boost operating margins, even as revenues slow because this is a giant company that's now growing more slowly, could be just the trick but they're going to have to articulate it. if they don't do it soon, they'll have an upcoming analyst

meeting, and i bet that will be a focus. >> paul, we got to run real quick. do you want to own amazon into the print? >> no, i don't think so. the problem with amazon is the management team gives such a wide range for outcomes, and in the meantime, we know that aws, which is their driver, is slowing. it's only supposed to grow 10% this quarter, versus almost 30% reported last week for the cloud businesses at microsoft and alphabet so, i want to see a re-acceleration. show it to me at amazon, then i'll get more constructive there. >> paul, thank you we'll be watching those reports later this week, and "squawk box" is coming right back after this it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever.

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ansemi ceo

welcome back, everybody. joining us right now onset to talk markets ahead of the monday morning open is managing partner and portfolio manager at dcla. of course he's also a cnbc contributor, and it's really good to see you in person. >> likewise. good to be here. >> i thought last week was the heaviest earnings week i'm wrong. it's this week what are we in for what are we watching >> you got 130 companies reporting, and you got the big ones, we know amazon and apple, but i'm really looking to see what companies are talking about in wages and what is sticking

and what's not, and i think that's the part the fed's really concerned with as well because as wages have gone up, they are getting stickier and stickier, and it's not like you can crawl that back. maybe you can crawl back price increases, people were talking about that, but what that leads to is, what does that mean for margins? what does it mean for the consumer does demand slow down? one of the things we're looking at is also services. how much of that can you forecast in the fall you're also seeing a little bit of dropoff is that playing into what the fed is saying, hey, we've got to keep rates where they are until we see that happening? then you counter that with, are we actually getting deflation from china or not, or are they going to really stimulate their economy, and the fed's going to say, wait a second, all of a sudden, input prices are starting to go up too. >> we look at all hof these labr contract disputes and negotiations, and some of the really high wages you see coming out of it, you think, that's a

big deal, but privatized labor unions are such a small part of the workforce. but you have to think other workers are saying, hey, why are you telling me i can't get more than 2%? >> you got pilots and u.p.s. even look at blue-collar workers and white-collar workers you have the autos all that's going to be embedded which would when you look at inflation and say, this is going to be what we're using every day, that's going to add to kind of where we're going to see multiples at some point as well. >> procter & gamble this week had phenomenal organic growth, and almost all of it came from price increases that were not a problem. >> exactly >> last week, i should say >> you had coke do that. procter & gamble do that inilevec did that. if it is sustainable, that's embedded inflation into the system we have to take that into account as to what your multiples are going to be down the road the other part that people aren't paying attention to are commodities. the whole commodity cycle has

been put aside, and i know we talked about energy before the show, but you look at copper and a whole bunch of other things, there's potential there for price increases and also for investors to look and see how you can make money there >> how are you feeling about the markets, given the huge runs we've seen this year it's been a phenomenal year for equities are the valuations getting stretched, or is momentum working, and the economy looks better than anybody was anticipating at this point >> i think the valuations have been stretched in certain stocks we talk about that all the time. the earnings have to meet them google did it. meta didit so, the question is, can apple and amazon do it as well if they can get the earnings to be commensurate to their valuation, i think you're okay but if you see something where, hey, you know what, our multiple expanded 50%, but our earnings aren't going up, i think investors are going to take some of those stocks to the penalty box. there are opportunities out there. you don't have to be in the top seven to ten stocks.

>> joann feeney said other stocks are beginning to catch up too. >> uber is up 80% and they've done a phenomenal job of turning their business into cash flow positive so, there are things out there that companies are starting to do they're just not the big market caps of the others we have to find, and again, that has to be sustainable. so, can we find opportunities in industrials? can we find opportunities in consumer, health care? health care has been so underowned at this point because it's been defensive, there are opportunities in there >> sarat, thank you for coming into studio. it's nice to see you in-person >> hopefully we can do it again here that's great >> let's do that let's take a final check on the markets before we hand things over. the futures have picked up a little bit, at least from where we started the show three hours ago. you saw the dow futures up by about 20 now they're up closer to 60 points s&p futures were flat. the nasdaq indicated up by 34 after being negative three hours

ago. folks, that does it for us today. andrew and i will be right back here tomorrow. >> see you in the morning. >> ready to go one more time and i misread the clock. we've got another 12 seconds to go so i'm going to sit here and stall because we're not handing it over early. this is our show to sit with, and we will wish you guys the best of luck happy monday we'll see you back here tomorrow right now, it's fulltime for "sk on the street. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with jim cramer, and we are live. this is not a drill. we're live post nine here at the new york stock exchange carl has the morning off he'll be back soon take a look at futures you just heard becky talking about, we're up now. we kind of turned around a little bit we are looking like we're going to have a bit of a higher open we're going to start on our road map with stocks as they close out a strong