>> you're not going to do it. you cannot dissuade the fanatics out there. >> no you cannot. >> that is so right. >> it doesn't matter how much money they lose. >> thank you, contessa. programming note, nfl commissioner roger goodell will join us in an exclusive commissioning interview from the sun valley conference. we will talk about sports betting and tv rights and so much more at 4:00 p.m. eastern. closing bell starts right now. >> kelly, thank you so much. i'm scott walker. this break our begins with a count down to tomorrow's inflation reports. your final stretch to get ahead of that, and what it means to this rally. we ask two guests that critical question. in the meantime, here is your scorecard with 20 minutes to go in regulation. the dow getting a boost today from industrial names like 3m and ingersoll-rand, and boeing, which posted strong delivery members. the etf tracking industrials, by the way, hitting a new all-time high today. salesforce is helping tech,

interest rates have been mostly lower ahead of that cpi print in the morning. nasdaq 34 points, that brings us to our talk of the tape whether it is time to lean into this market, or back off, and wait for a better entry point. gabriela santos is here as well, global market strategist for asset management, both here, as you can see, ladies, it is good to have you. learn about his first tomorrow in the cpi? >> not a lot. the fed will already go. inflation is downside relative to investor expectation. it hinges on prices we expect to come down over a few months. inflation has clearly peaked and is likely to move lower over the next several months, but the reality is that core inflation, and that super core pce inflation that powell pays

attention to is still too high and wage growth which we saw on friday still too high. from an investment perspective, the trend is known, hikes are coming in july. >> gabriela, you share the same view? tomorrow is a nothing burger since the fed is going to go? by the way, most firms on the street think you will get headline around 3% and core around the 5% level. so, maybe give or take off of those numbers, or perhaps a more dramatic move if it is dramatically higher or lower than those projections? >> absolutely. and we will get the month over month figure both excited to increase 0.3%. i think, nothing burger for july, especially after the labor market report and recent fed speeches. it seems like we are good to go. the market is already pricing in over 90% probability. but, i do think there is interesting information, there. we agree there is a does inflationary process in place. on its own, no need for further hikes, but given the fed is intent on doing so, i think the

important information around the super core is whether we are seeing a normalization in prices come from making a soft landing narrative recently which has propelled cyclicals higher, or, perhaps, if we miss too far on the downside, we are slowing down too much, hard landing fears resurface, or if it pops higher, where we accelerate too much and are at risk of a policy error. needs to be just enough. >> what's the nothing burger, then? earnings, largely known, we think inflation is coming down, is it all about earnings which begin later this week? >> earnings are later, certainly important. we have seen that headline revenues, while still positive in nominal terms, 4.1% in the first quarter, we just got this information, negative in real terms at 1.1%. the market doesn't care a lot. now, we know that market expectations don't attend to start pricing a recession until a recession is hitting.

but, what will tell us a recession is hitting may not actually be earnings, but the job numbers. so, until we see a meaningful deceleration in employment, the market may not believe that this hard landing is hitting us, which i still expect is going to be the case later this year. >> there is a debate, you know, on wall street as to whether gabriela, better than feared, which has been the case for the last few quarters, is that enough now. it was fine then, but it might not be good enough now. what is your view? >> to your question, i do think the everything burger is earnings, given that the return this year has been multiple expansions of 17%. earnings have got to start coming through. the trick with this earnings season is that expectations have not come down, as they often do, going into an earnings season, though we are nearly as much as normal. i do think that beating those

excitations are not enough because the expectations are not so low anymore. for the earnings season, beyond the macro readthrough for macros coming up on the state of the consumer, i think really, the focus is on margins, argins, margins. right? for both stockmarket investors and bond market investors. are companies able to maintain enough pricing power, but not too much, where inflation then becomes a problem again and we are back to talking about policy error and hard landing. really, both the cpi and hard earnings are about finding a sweet spot here. >> so, dow is around the high for today, we are good around 250. rates are elevated. we know the fed is going to go. who knows what the cpi delivers tomorrow, and the market obviously does not think that earnings will be horrible. may be better than feared is good enough. but what does it tell you that the market is as resilient as it is? it is not just technology. industrial, for example, etf attracts that space with an all- time high today and many names

within that are having a great day. >> it tells us what is typically true, late in the economic cycle, which is that when you still have lagging indicators, mostly meaning the consumer, propelling the economy forward, the market, and specifically investors, do not believe that anything else is problematic. i think that if equity markets were flat, let's say, the recession is imminent conversation would already be much more imminent. i think that is why this economic data sitting, just churning along with trend is convincing investors that a soft landing is still was possible. >> what of the leading indicators are signs of a trough that the consumer hangs in the lagging indicators and the leading ones are as bad as they will be, and maybe that is in part why the market is as

resilient as it has been? >> this question has come up a lot lately because there are early signs of housing, for example, starting to see green shoots. i don't think that it is likely that we are seeing a trough in any of the leading indicators just yet. the reason is that we have not really seen a meaningful economic deceleration despite 500 basis points of fed hikes. we know from past spirits that when the fed hikes this way, and specifically when credit and lending standards and start to collapse, that economic activity is liable to slow. we have seen it in liquidity sensitive sectors, but not so much in the economic sectors yet , including, as gabriela very astutely points out, in profit margins. and so, i do not think we have seen the bulk of the slowdown yet. it is still to come. >> that is what i am saying, though. if there is still the sphere of economic deterioration, right? if the leading economic indicators are so weak, why are industrials so good? >> i'm happy you brought out industrials. it is one of our preferred sectors, and i think it is related to a couple of things,

the reasons that cyclicals have been doing better. certainly resilience in the labor market has increased the soft landing odds. it keeps income and spending on track. but also, i think it is because there is a certain willingness from investors to look through, what if we are wrong and there is a recession? it's a short one, it's shallow, it's a technical recession, let's get through. i think especially for industrials, that is important, because it is a kind of sector net benefits looking through a technical recession from long- term tailwinds and the rise of industrial policy. we are spending again on the energy transition, on semiconductor manufacturing. >> reassuring, right? >> exactly. reassuring production of critical materials and of semiconductors, that is a huge tailwind for the sector. recession or not. >> i get the feeling that neither of you are looking through. that, both of you are reasonably negative, still come on the market. both of you are adding to bond , right? i mean, is that the correct take away from our view,

lauren? >> i would argue, actually, a near-term -- let's call it pessimistic perspective is an optimistic perspective for investors. because, the quicker you have a reset in the cycle, the quicker that you can have a pricing reset and investors start to take advantage of some of the structural trends we are seeing, higher rates, higher income, structural investment in energy, digital transformation, the infra structure around it, we are seeing, despite some of these really constructive long-term economic trends, investors being really hesitant to take advantage of some of the, let's call it megatrend developments, because they are worried about the cycle might turn at some point. and actually, in a poll we recently have done of our investment teams, even as recession expectations push out further, positioning from a construction perspective is not changing. and that might suggest that there are some reasons to be more constructive when it comes to, if a recession were to come sooner. >> what happens, gabriela, if

all of these predictions and the belief that we are late cycle, as lauren suggested, does not mean that the cycle actually ends? so, it appears that we are late cycle, but, the conomy remains strong enough, inflation comes down enough, the fed is done, soon, sooner, and you just restart a new cycle? >> i think, remember pre pandemic, we talked about late cycle ad nauseam, for years and years, and the market went up and up. so, i think that ultimately, even if we do get a recession, or we don't, ultimately, it is about calibrating your exposure towards risk asset. for us, there is simply no longer the case to be underweight on equities. a neutral allocation makes sense. the reason to be so focused on adding fixed income is the opportunity. rates are going lower from here. so, the window to capture these 15 year high yields is only here for a certain amount of time. the second is for diversification to equities, inflation is no longer the driving concern, and three is

just risk reward. if yields go up, you could gain 1%, figure daniel to lose 12%. >> that's what i'm asking about the risk versus reward. gabriela, do you not think it is great second half for equity investors? >> after 17 or 60%? it is not quite the same risk reward trade-off, and that is why, within equities, we are much more focused on adding to the value sectors that have not caught up as well. they are still in a long-term story like industrials. international we think the pessimism is far too extreme, especially europe and china and emerging markets. and also the quality because it is not smooth sailing from here recession or not. >> sure, but if you want to add to the loggers, the assumption

would be to e that you think there would be a catch-up trade. if trend continues to perform reasonably well, and there is a catch up trade and you think those stocks are worth investing in, that does not sound like a bad risk reward environment for stocks? >> the need to start faster got the index level we might not go anywhere, but with a lot of flapping feet beneath the surface as you get some leadership change. but we would not do is go all in on all kinds of cyclicals, because it is not quite the macro setup and there are some interesting defensive switch have been lagging like healthcare. >> what about risk reward? has it gotten worse because of the gains in the first half as we make the turn? even though we think the fed is close to the end and earnings are hanging in, consumers are hanging income as you said? >> i would argue that as valuations have inched higher across asset classes, the risk reward dynamic changes. we are taking a similar approach to what gabriela is describing inequity. value core overlay of profitable tech to take advantage of changes in that

sector that are frankly exciting, more exposure to international, but as equity markets have moved higher, we have been taking gains and leveraging them in high-yield. and, that is not to say that the pricing opportunity in high- yield has gotten better but spreads have been tightening across credit asset classes, but the higher yield and the opportunity to take advantage of that income generation opportunity, that segment of the portfolio that can work for you in a different way is still very attractive. >> are we going to be reminded, this earnings season, gabriela, about why we are so excited about what is happening in tech, that will remain the place to be, because expectations for earnings are only going up? who knows if there is another nvidia surprise in the mix, we will just have to wait and see through the next couple of weeks? >> tech is crucial, because actually, expectations for communication services in parts of tech have gone up since the second quarter began. there is already a pretty high

expectation. i would not necessarily say ai benefits are filtering through already, but of cost-cutting measures, starting to really flow-through in martin's. so, really, the burden of proof is on tech to show that the worst is over, especially after the run, not just in earnings and expeditions but actual performance. that is where there is perhaps, lower excitations in parts of the value style that can surprise on the upside, versus just study from here. >> you said profitable tech. you are obviously talking about mega caps. do they continue to lead? will that be the dominant a story for the remainder of the year? >> that is our expectation. at least where generative ai and trends around the new leveraging of technology are concerned. that is not to say that mega cap tech are the only way to leverage this trend, not at all. we are looking at, in addition to a somatic exposure to the digital transformation, also investing in equity and bond

aspects of infrastructure, specifically digital infrastructure. there are plenty of ways to leverage the trend, but, even though the valuations of these companies have ticked higher in recent weeks, as a result of the excitement over generative ai, that is not necessarily what puts us into bubble territory. in fact, there is a lot of room to climb for these companies, relative to bubbles past. and so, i think it is important to be vigilant, to be mindful, but as long as these companies are printing reliable revenues, cutting costs, as gabriela mentioned, it is difficult to fight that impulse. >> i appreciate you both being here. it's been fun. lauren and gabriela, thank you, we will see you soon. letter to our twitter question of the day. is it time to lean in or back off of this rally? wait for a better entry point? cnbc closing bell to vote, the results later on in the hour, in the meantime, we check on top stocks to watch. christina has more on that. >> roku announcing shares up

double digits, after announcing a partnership with spotify. shop a fight will help users make purchases without interrupting that streaming experience. it also gives both company's more insights to purchasing trends but you can see shop if i is up less than 2%. but roku is the biggest winner there, shutter stock announcing a six-year partnership with chapter gpt maker open ai. shutter stock offers images, music and will give open ai access to database for computer training purposes, and allow customers to use synthetic editing capabilities, a.k.a. , alter any image in shutter stocks library. shutter stock up 8.3%. >> all right, thank you. christina, we are just getting started here up next. new development in the big battle between the ftc, and microsoft, over its acquisition of activision blizzard. with might be next for that deal. we will tell you after the break. baird asset management cio

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it's happening. get started wih fast spees and advanced security for $49.99a month for 12 monts plus ask how to get up to a $750 prepaid card with qualifying internet. welcome back. we are following you develop today in the battle between the ftc and microsoft over its acquisition of activision blizzard. steve kovach has the latest.

steve? >> yeah, like a soft one is case with the judge denying ftc's request to block the deal. ftc still has the option to appeal by midnight on friday, and it is unclear for now they will do that. in the meantime, our data favorite reporting, microsoft deal nearing a deal with uk regulators, the companies and markets authority after it rejected their transaction this spring. they were saying metasoft offered to divest part of its business, and could close the deal as soon as monday. as for the ftc case, the judge says it failed to prove microsoft would remove activision's hit game, call of duty, from playstation and make it exclusive to xbox. she also said ftc failed to prove microsoft would have an unfair advantage in cloud gaming. the decision raises questions about the ftc track record under chair khan, but it will continue. we are inspecting the ftc to sue amazon as soon as the summer on antitrust grounds. >> at beyond the metasoft story, let's focus on the gaming industry, because

electronic arts, 5% gain today. take two interactive is up almost 5% today. presumably on -- okay, who is next? >> right? you just named two of the top one right there. you will remember 1 1/2 years ago, when this metasoft deal was first announced, there was talk that comcast would want to buy electronic arts and emerge that into the nbc you group. an alternative universe you and i are looking for a videogame company. look, these videogame companies each pump out billion-dollar franchises, it's like putting out a new avengers movie every year for a lot of these companies. so, they are very attractive but they have built-in audiences, they are guaranteed franchises. you mentioned take two, they will have a new grand theft auto game. remember, they have raised their guidance so high, likely because that is coming. so, there is a lot of activity there and i think that people are starting to wake up. the one thing that you should look for is, which of those names of the mobile business. i know we have been talking about call of duty so much, but

the real reason metasoft says they want to buy this company is because of mobile. that is where all the action is and growth is in gaming. >> now i'm wondering whether the judges move today has opened the door to the possibility of a deal that could not get done, despite what the ftc might want, with another tech giant looking at one of these companies, or somebody else feeling emboldened to maybe get omething across the goal line. >> exactly. there are not too many other companies that would, at least on the big tech side that would want to be inquisitive. may be meta-, because of the oculus headset thing. that is very gaming focused. apple has apple arcade, with a maybe what you buy a studio? there's a lot of things there, but i would say that is you are looking at who is next and who has the mobile business. we know for example that take two bought zynga around the same time as this deal happened. a lot of these companies are beefing up mobile business because that is where all the growth is. the headwind, of course, is apple and google dominating this platform. so they take a huge slice. >> nice day for them.

thank you, steve. by the way, do not miss activision blizzard ceo bobby kotick right here on closing bell live from sun valley at 3:00 p.m. eastern time. the tech rally is taking a breather this week. xl k ontrack for its fifth down day. just being selective when it comes to tech. let's bring in amy kong of cfi, welcome to our show. big tech, let's start there first. you are apple, alphabet, microsoft, and nvidia. where do you think the bar is, now, into earnings season for these companies? >> it is certainly high, or at least higher, scott. we are cautious into the earnings season, where, with new money, we are getting a little uncomfortable buying into this market rally that we have seen. i think earnings will be okay. but, in terms of adding money to the new market we are seeing a bit of a pause. >> how do you address valuations when you look across the board from what they were at the beginning of the year,

to where they are now? are you comfortable? are you getting a little concerned that maybe some of them are over there skis? >> as an investor, you never say no to a rally. but, when we look under the hood we are uncomfortable in terms of how we have gotten there. market expansion has really been on this rally, not to mention the narrowness of market expansion is driven by the top five or six names. >> how are you thinking about ai in general, and what it has meant to his space, the hype and hope versus what the reality is? some folks are talking about a bubble in this space or not? >> the megatrend is there. when you think about realistically, how do you execute that trend? there could be bumps on the road. getting your actual medical advice, i think there is a bit of bumping us along the way and it probably gives us a better window to get into some of

these names. but, when we think about ai, we think in a couple of different ways, whether it is hyper- scale cloud infrastructure, microsoft, or pure plays like nvidia or even strategic consulting like accenture. those are names we are in right now. >> let's go through a couple of names right now. >> your expectation for apple into earnings season, that is when people point to and say that evaluation makes me nervous. you know, over 30 times. up to that stock in recent weeks. >> it does give us a bit of a pause. the same with micro soft trading about 31 times. but, we think about the peg ratio which i think is reasonable right now. the fact that with apple, their service segment, if you would, probably about 10% of revenues growing closer to 20, today, margins above 70%. i think those metrics give us more comfort levels owning these stocks over the long term. >> let's talk healthcare, great sector last year, undoubtedly. the second half going to bring something different?

>> i think it will be case-by- case. large-cap pharma has been taking a pause with regards to divesting. we have seen that, as a trend. i think they will pick up m&a between now and next couple of quarters. that could add excitement. biotech, depending on which types of companies we are dealing with to see some excitement within large-cap biotech, you know, diseases or weight loss, i think you have to be selective. managed care is taking a breather after outperforming last year, i think we will find a bit of bumping us with regards to the election coming up in 24. >> what about medical devices? >> we like thermo fisher. but, they are taking a bit of a pause this time of year because they have had that covid pandemic height and a lot of these companies are starting to normalize earnings. >> real quick, j.p. morgan. the banks get every thing going in earnings and this is actually the best performing large bank of the year. >> is one of those set it and

forget it stocks. valuation is on the higher end. we think earnings, coming into the end of this week could be okay, but loan provisions will take higher for larger banks. >> we will see you soon, thanks for being here. that is amy kong joining us. up next, doubling down on the case, eric johnson is had a back, while some have flagged the cpi event as a puddle positive catalyst for stocks he is still not sure about that but he defends his stance on the next. star tech analyst dan ives is out with his q2 te enicharngs forecast. we take a look ahead on closing bell.

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back to back games with the dow rebounding from its worst week since march. our next guest believes the barricades for stock are still building and have been since the end of last year when he first went back to his negative view. joining me once again, karen

fitzgerald, welcome back. >> thank for having me. >> same guy, same view. you have not changed your negative view? >> sendai, same view. circumstances are ever changing every day, and our overall view remains very similar. >> what you mean they are changing? circumstance changing but your view remains the same? >> shore. there is clearly a lot of speculative forces in the market looking at price without fundamentals i would tell you that scott's our contracting but there are fundamentals, fundamental backdrop is extraordinarily poor. valuations right now are at excessive levels, relative to rates on their own. the economic risk is one-sided

hanging on for low growth, when will we ultimately go into recession. >> i will stop you there. you made the same pace case 12 months ago, that the economic risks are one-sided. i can easily look now, over the period of time and say, i think the economic risks are better today, then they were a year ago . >> i would disagree with that. so, excess savings are down every day. they are still there, but down every day and they are lower today than they were nine months ago. student loan moratorium has been in place the entire time, that is coming to an end in the september, october time frame. credit card balances. credit card rates continue to rise every day. right? every day, consumers are paying more. >> it's not like telling lindsay's are exploding. >> no, but the cost to the

consumer is rising and it will crowd out other spending. >> but why do people, like the delta ceo, people buy airline tickets on the credit cards, presumably. why does he keep talking about unwavering demand? if the situation is getting so bad? >> at the moment there is unwavering demand for service. certainly, most parts of service, whether it be crews, airlines, et cetera but that is only one part of the consumer dynamic. there is restaurants, and the goods market which is faltering. minus 0.4%, the lowest since 2020, and that is with inflation at 4% or 5%, which means the unit sales are dropping very sharply. very sharply. not only do you have that going on, you have this overall inflation dynamic, right?

as long as we are at these asset prices, it has not rolled over yet so that will be a dampening effect on the overall level of the market. >> not if inflation comes down. >> if inflation comes down that the negative earnings. earnings have benefited from inflation. and second, inflation is coming down for sure, but to get it to 2% on an ongoing basis, not a one touch, right? average inflation target is 2%, is going to be challenging when the economy is still doing what it is doing today, which is not rolling over hard yet. the other point is that, the fed is doing rate hikes, but quantitative tightening from the fed and ecb is going to continue and that is meaningful. and then, we have the bank of

japan out there, who has had a combatant of policy for a long time, that not today, not next month, but sometime in the next six months, it is going to pivot to a hawkish tilt. >> what is the market where it is? if things are so bad and the risks are so asymmetrical, why are we where we are? >> it's a great question, this has happened plenty of times through history, where stock prices go well for them fundamentals. you can see it in individual stocks, the meme craze, tesla going to 400 before it dropped. >> you think it is the same? >> i'm talking about 2021. there have been times in history , whether it is the.com bubble going way through, or 2007, in home prices and what he market is doing. >> i know, but where is that today. where is that happening that likens to those periods you are mentioning? >> are going through fair value. stocks on their own can go

through fair value for one month, two months, six months, years, and that is absolutely possible. right? but ultimately, if you are owning stocks in that timeframe, you are playing with fire, because ultimately, fundamentals almost always a -- always went out. >> do you not think that the fundamentals justify why mega cap tech is where it is? is that not justified? >> in some cases it is and in some cases it is not. ai will be revolutionary. we can all agree on that? how do you make money, and what price do you pay for stocks today? what price do you pay for nvidia, tesla, microsoft, apple. 31 and 34 or 75 times earnings? are those the right multiples? the winners and losers from ai are still to be determined. right? just like on the internet boom in the late 90s. the winners and losers are still to be determined, and the backbone of the internet, cisco 1999 turned out to be a very poor purchase, even though the

internet became a transformational thing. >> but the level of possibility of these companies today versus anyone that you would cite is wholly different. >> yes. these are different circumstances, but in the end, you are paying a significant premium for these stocks. by the way, some of these stocks might ultimately be paying 34 times for microsoft. maybe it will turn out to be the right thing. but, in aggregate, when i look at the big mega cap seven stocks, right? they have a lot of good things going for them and they do have some of these ai trends but they have great balance sheets, more secular as opposed to cyclical, those are things that i have liked. okay? but at some point, is paying 32 times for apple the right thing to do? i would argue, now. >> we will see what happens with earnings in a couple of weeks. >> yes, that is possible. >> some were questioning whether it was right to pay whatever you were paying for nvidia ahead of earnings, and then there guidance was so

dramatic, price-to-earnings went down after earnings based on the revenue guide. >> absolutely. and, i do not see that for apple or some of these other names. nvidia, absolutely. i will not disagree with you on that, at all. another blowout number is likely next quarter. now come on a short-term basis, that could be a stock to own, but realize that with all of these names, but you are in a very speculative situation, right? apple was transformational when year ago, two years ago, six years ago. multiples of 15 to 31. so, i'm not saying that 15 is the right multiple, but as great a company as apple is, as transformational as it is, 31 times earnings for a company with negative revenue growth the right number? i think that it is a very risky proposition. >> unless you think that the

worst is possibly behind that company in terms of where the revenue growth declines were coming from, and that they arguably have the most powerful installed base in the history of any consumer products company ever. >> yes. they did six years ago, too. i have been using her pods, car play, the iphone has been attached for a very long time, right? the market has decided to pay 31 times for it. as okay as it sounds right now, with the stock having significant momentum, it could be consequences for that. >> to be continued. we will talk to you soon. that's eric johnson joining us once again. next we are tracking biggest movers into the close. christina is standing by with that. >> salesforce hiking prices for the first time in years, and the odds of a spot? bit coin etf winning approval just went up. that, next.

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15 minutes before the closing bell, let's get back to christina for a look at key stocks she is watching. >> i am watching corn-based shares, they are jumping on potential approval of a bit coin etf. there is a surveillance sharing agreement for five of its spot bit coin etf. what does that mean?

the sec can use these surveillance agreements to consider making changes to trading rules for new derivative products. that means the odds of a spot bit coin etf winning approval in the u.s. it just rose which is why corn-based shares a 10% higher. salesforce shares are higher after they announced raising prices by 9% starting next month but this marks the company's first price hike in many years as tech companies are increasing spending to incorporate ai. shares up at 3.6%. >> christina, thank you. last chance to weigh in on twitter question. we asked, is it time to lean into the rally or back off and wait for a better entry point? cnbc closing bell on twitter, your results just after this break. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. ♪

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twitter question, leaning or back off? oh boy, look at that. a virtual tie. back off barely winning. that is very interesting. of next, we are talking about this rally, we are talking about the retail rally, amazon prime event kicks off we are back in the market zone, next. with your hearing, if you start having a little trouble, you're concerned that it's going to cost you money. to this day i only paid what i had to pay for the device... when i go back everything is covered. there's so much you're missing by not having hearing aids. we'll find you a hearing aid that fits your lifestyle and budget at one of our over fifteen hundred locations. call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle

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highs today for the market zone, senior markets commentator mike santilli here to break down crucial moments of the trading day. plus, why densities a green light heading into earnings. day one of amazon's prime event, good to have you everybody. the bears is not given. you heard from eric johnston again. >> the macro bear case has not really budged, largely because it does rely on a lot of these things that take a while to show up. so you can pin yourself to the long lags, all these things that have been in place. the fact that frankly, the fret that has wanted to restrain the economy. what is interesting is that the market itself, you alluded to this, it is levitating in the short term. it is not giving you a lot of negative feedback. it is not actually telling you,

we see these warning signs we are alarmed about systemic issues, it is just kind of consolidating about 4400 and the s&p and wants to use that as a floor this month. maybe we are just feeding off of seasonal tailwinds as long as they last. maybe you are ripping everybody in two speculative stuff starting to move. i could see us building toward a moment of tactical complacency into the cpi, but in general, leadership looked. we will see if we are emptying the tank on some of these factors. >> we have a game of red light green light. red light, does fundamentals live up to the evaluation? >> a bright green light.

as we look across consumer and big tech will be much better than expected and i think that what we are starting to see with cio is definitely a change in terms of an uptick in scheduling, when i look at what has happened with redwing and microsoft, that is on a truck towards 3 trillion. this could be another quarter that shows more share gains. i look at cybersecurity, i look at apple on the side, to me it is broader tech going in. >> isn't all of that already in the stock to some degree given the gains and evaluations where they are? >> to some extent, i think ai in my opinion is a 1995 moment. i think it is the most transformational tech use we have seen in 20 years. we are seeing a broader rally across the small and mid-cap and when i look at small-cap bows continued to lead here and a lot of bears will come out of hibernation, coming into earnings. i think that these numbers across the board and send them back into hibernation.

>> some of these bears may never come out, given their views. thank you. that is dan ives. courtney reagan, looking at amazon, day one of prime day, one 25% higher? >> that is better than what we see. since 2015 shares on actually fall slightly during the event but then gain it back plus a little the following day. intelligence does estimate that amazon's prime day will increase 10% over what we saw last year. more than $8 billion worldwide. sales for the retailer could be nearly 13 billion. it does improve mental sales for online retail overall. best buy, target, among the target retailers that offer competing sales and adobe does work after the today prime event to drive $13 billion of total u.s. online spend. so, others get to dissipate in this, too. that's 9.5% more than last

year. we are seeing rallies today. xrt and online retail etf both outperforming the broader market. more than 3.5% higher. burlington and betsy, those are among the leaders, up 6% or more but then you have pellet on and affirm, leaving the eye by etf and palatine product are being discounted some on amazon today. the online behemoth also offers a firm financing, so perhaps there is a halo effect for some of these names, but generally retail just kind of becomes in focus on a day like today. how will inflation play on the consumer psyche? we will see things turn around? not? we will see. >> courtney reagan, i will turn back

>> yesterday we had the mechanical selloff in the six largest names. i think it will be pretty stubborn in a response pattern. that said, if i look at the way that apple has traded this year, i keep pointing this out, is it it is at to perfect a 45 degree angle, to say that it is responding to new information about apple's business. the market is rewarding various attributes these companies have right now in the moment. i think the more -- if you want to be super bullish for the market, you can say that those will take some time off, take a breather, consolidate, the rest of the market can do more to find some traction and do some of the work for a little while and then we will see where it leaves us in a few months. so, i would not say there is some reason to outright get negative on this group. for the whole market, anywhere between here and 5000 on the s&p seems like it will get a good stretch period close to that.

with a smaller economy and lower earnings. 500 basis points trending ahead of us, so you cannot say there would be something wildly off- base if we traded higher from here, even if valuation gets less friendly, >> tao is near 1%. we have one minute left in the session, what do you make of industrials? >> think this is one of the more reassuring things about the internal action in the market, in terms of what is really working, it is not necessarily the conglomerates. you have pockets like machinery, and engine makers and things like that. the compounding businesses that quietly do well in many environments, plus airlines up 35% this year. i think it tells a decent story about the cycle, travel, things like that, even if it is not

something where the economy is about to accelerate. >> we are getting a gain on the dow, better than 300 points. all ahead of cti, tomorrow morning. overtime picks up that story with morgan and john. major averages closing close to the days high and the years high for all three, when is stay late, welcome to closing bell overtime. coming up this hour, the u.s. online broker utah wrote will talk to us about a spike in trading, and the names her customers are buying right now. an active day for activision. stock jumping on news that they could be a step closer