heat around a.i., if you're talking about nvidia, which we got a few days ago, big upside surprise to the guide, or on the software side, c3, which has moved around quite a bit that's why you have to watch "overtime. that will do it for "overtime" today. "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," krudz crumbling. wti down over 6% so far this week, and over 11% this month. the rest of the commodity complex sliding, as well what signal is this sending about the health of the economy and the markets? plus, time to shine. is this beaten down chip stock about to get its moment in the stock in the praise the company is getting from the competition and the move it's having this week. and the chart master all revved up about tesla. we will hear why he says this battleground ev stock is still a guy, even after a 60% move higher this year i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq market site.

and we start off with a crude awakening it for the energy markets. wti down more than 11% since the start of may that's its worst month since november 2021 and it hasn't just been energy under pressure from livestock to grains to metals, price are falling across the board. what's the impact of these moves? consumer prices grew at their slowest clip in two years in april. how will further disinflation fit entire the markets it could be seen as a good thing, glass half full, glass half empty, right, or a bad thing if it means -- >> we just posted the lean hogs data, so -- no , i think, if yo look at wheat, we're at 2 1/2-year lows. well through pre-russia/ukraine invasion, the biggest wheat producers in the word. if you look at lumber, all those things, very important for at least ppi. whether it's cpi, you know,

we're going to get into that, you have some great cpi numbers out of europe this morning, continues a pretty good run, france this morning, germany earlier in the week. and those dynamics, i think, are important. in other worlds, the reopening trade has taken longer than anybody thought in a lot of different ways, including supply chain and including the commodities base and the best thing for higher commodity prices is higher commodity prices and i think when you're talking about wheelt and you're talking about lumber and talking about base commodities, there's a lot you can do with it when it comes to oil, i'm excited with this conversation, you're trading a lot on china sentiment, you're trading a lot on the dynamics on where true demand is. any manufacturing data we're getting from any port of the world, certainly china last night, but certainly the data here, regional pmis, we had a terrible china pmi this morning, which tells you that we're in a manufacturing recession. that's not particularly good for energy, even though i think longer term and i think china is going to surprise in the second half of the year

that was today it was all about weak data pushing down oil, which was already vulnerable technically, and if you look at where crude is now, it's very vulnerable >> the overall picture is a picture of economies slowing, whether it be in the united states or around the world, which could mean good things in terms of a fed pause, but it could mean bad things in terms of how you interpret that as a signal for economies in general, right? >> sure. >> less demand is people doing -- >> i've seen a lot of things floating around the web that really makes sense so, tim said a bunch of them you had warmer weather, you have opec -- every time opec cuts, you should sell oil. they're always -- no one adheres to the cuts. so, it's counterintuitive. everyone always outpumps they say they're going to cut, but none of the members ever cut. that's number two or three or four reduced demand as rates move higher, there's a reduced demand to hold inventories, so, people have to flood the market with -- it incentivizes you to drill and

put it out and pull it immediately on the market. as rates move higher, treasuries become more attractive so, if you think about people who -- not people who are doing the business, but people who are investing in the commodities space now have competition they don't buy the commodity anymore, they buy treasuries instead. >> so, you're saying to sell oil -- >> yeah, so, i'm saying there's a reason -- there's a host of reasons that might not be the best reason, but that's one of the major reasons. i thought we would be range bound, but it seems like we can't get our helad above in wt crude anymore. >> there's a lot of noisy things in the economic data today, we had some very different kind of noises we had the job openings number, which was very, very high. i don't know if it's just a one-off, but that was a surprisingly big number, which doesn't bode well for trying to get wage inflation under control. on the other hand, you had the pmi number, also, don't know if it's a one-off, sort of the other direction.

that sort of counterargument so, this sort of makes me think, okay, should the fed pause, not -- not pivot, but pause, because, you know, i've been thinking a lot about -- if they are still not where they need to go, they should keep going, however, i don't know that there's harm to pausing now. i don't think that they will lose credibility as being hawkish, being concerned about inflation -- >> cutting would lose credibility. >> yes, totally agree with that. cutting would lose credibility pausing and saying, let's look, and i -- because there are sort of noisy data out there. >> well, two fed officials came out today arguing for a pause. carter, you brought along, of course, some charts. so, what do you see for crude? >> i did, yes. hello, team. so, well, you know, my hunch is there's not a lot of downside. before we get to it, it's worth stating that adjusted for inflation, a barrel of crude is the same level it was in 1985.

but let's look at the chart and just figure out how much downside -- perspective downside there might be even as we were to breach this sort of -- sort of 66, 65 where we are now, the downside really isn't much more than 63, to my eye. and so, i'm thinking, actually, you want to be contrarian here, we are down 50%, everyone loved it after the invasion of ukraine, 130 a barrel, down some 50%, everyone hates it now i think as is quite often the case, take the road less traveled >> okay. you heard it from the chart master our next guess was a long-term oil bull who has gone bearish. he made the switch six weeks ago. let's bring in paul sankey so, you are bearish now. you still see trading opportunities among oil equities, we'll get to that in a minute, but where do you see oil going at this point? >> well, at the moment, it's

really all about the sunday opec meeting. what we're concerned about -- we feel there's some kind of tension between russia and saudi, who -- the two key mega-players, really around asia and the fact that russia is now taking saudi market share quite aggressively in asia with heavily discount ed barrels i'm not sure m, they can bring t much from the halt at this meeting, and as i said, there's a hail risk that we could go to a worst case scenario, which would be a march 2020 market share war, you know, where at the worst possible moment in the market, saudi actually cranked up to all-time high production levels to make the point to russia they needed to cut as much as saudi did. they aren't talking about a potential blowup at this meeting. >> let me ask you about the u.s. spr. so, they had stopped -- they said they would buy below 70, i believe, and then i think they technically maybe ran out of money. possibly next week, they'll have

some money do you expect them to be in there, will that make a difference in the market is that enough to change the dynamic at all >> right, so, last year, there was an active selling program that was driven by the administration and it was big, it was a million barrels a day, a massive dampener on prices and a lot of it ended up being exported to china, which drove people nuts. this year, there was a congressionally mandated sale for budget reasons, that we've completed. and then -- they were powerless to do anything about that, essentially, but they managed to reduce its overall scale and now, we're in theory, we should be buying, but they announced 3 million barrels, so, they were saying 60 million barrel releases, big numbers, this rebuild, in the second half, is just 3 million. and it won't make much difference, quite frankly. they would have to step it up a lot to make a difference >> i want to get to your oil equity picks you like valero? >> i like valero i'm not sure we upgrade d it

i was just with the outgoing ceo, he's got a fantastic team behind him long-term, i love valero it's got a great partnership with darling in the biodiesel area, renewable diesel area. it leads in that area getting the feed stocks, and it's a great company. right here, nobody wants to buy refining into a recession, and i think the toughest thing is, this recession isn't coming, you know, people have been calling for it now for a yearand a halfeh half, and it doesn't seem to show up. we see the industrial economy in china, here, trucking, real heavy parts of the economy are all slowing big-time, and that's pulling down diesel, which is concerning but the service part of the chinese economy, jet travel, individual consumption, the u.s. economy is whatever it is, 70% to 80% consumption, all of that service stuff keeps run you and that's why, you know, economically, we kind of remain

on track but you can't help but think that the primary economy's going to bleed through eventually. one of the things it was doing, las vegas gaming revenues, i don't know if you saw them from may, but they're down pretty hard they had a huge march and they are coming down quite a lot, which is a great indicator of where we're struggling to really call it, which is the consumer and when the consumer slows down >> we always ask you for a pair trade. you like to short a lot, so, obviously, a.i., a.i.-related things -- >> i said shorten nvidia, which is the worst trade i made on this program the first losing trade -- >> you meant buy >> i meant buy i would say we got out of the way quickly, because i had hedge fund guys telling me, you're quickly, this is a bubble, you know, we backed right off. in terms of what we saw in the debt ceiling negotiation, you saw joe manchin manage to get through a permitting agreement, which is a big deal,

particularly for the pipeline, which takes gas out of the ma marcellus and releases it to the u.s. eastern seaboard. we think that's great for range. we are a little bit worried about another big play, eqt. but we're worried that the ftc might put a block on a deal they're doing. so, we're worried about being long that. so, long range, and short side, we have picking gas mains that will struggle once this pipeline comes on, because it's going to further gas prices after two years, since 2020, every trade is -- >> i think we lead you down that scary path in the past, but -- >> yeah, you remember it all starts with long exxon, short apple in august 2020 >> outstanding calls >> well, not the apple i should have realized -- >> don't worry about it. it's all good. >> so, the trade is long marcellus. an oily one. a gassy one.

>> paul sankey >> thank you >> tim >> speaking of gassy -- no i think -- if you look at kind of midstream and the gas area, eqt, which had numbers -- paul likes this name, too it's a free cash flow story. part of my view you want to be investing in the companies, not necessarily the commodity. they beat on significantly tighter cash flow, excuse me, higher cash flow on less cap-x spend. the yield on that is north of 8% and it's very well insulated in other words, i think you can own a lot of the high yielders and they are going to continue to pay you there's a lot of interesting dynamics in the macro of oil, but the reality is, it's about supply, when you really have seen the market fall out of bed, i recognize what the headlines are all about. there's been such a lack of investment in the space, so, that's my secular view, and why i think there's support here. the fed releasing its latest beige book earlier this

afternoon. this as some fed officials hint pausing rate hikes steve liesman has more >> the odds of that june rate hike after the two fed officials suggested they favored skipping a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. let's start with them. fed governor phillip jefferson, important, because he's president biden's nominee to be the vice chairman. skipping a rate hike would allow a skip he said it was not a pause, a hike would be possible again he noted the effects of bank credit tightening on the way and the 500 basis points of fed rate hike, they didn't know what they were yet and may not be fully felt in the economy. then comes patrick harker, he echoed those comments, but a bit more direct, saying, i am in the camp increasingly coming into this meeting thinking that we really should skip he said the jobs data on friday could change his mind.

well, guess what the futures market changed its mind after the two spoke what was a 70% probability of a rate hike in june flipped on a dime, because a roughly 64% probability for no change at all. jefferson, harker's remarks pretty much in line with recent comments from jay powell, who was more neutral about the june meeting, but several other fed officials, they've been more hawkish, saying they are inclined to continue hiking. so, this sets up a lot of uncertainty about the june decision and the best way to think about it is going to be determined by the latest data getting up to that meeting and probably some considerable debate around the fed table, melissa >> i mean, it's uncertainty around june, but uncertainty after june, too, which the market doesn't necessarily like. almost better off, i think if they just hiked in june, said, okay, that's it now, opposed to saying, we're going to pause and maybe out there we're going to see another one. i'm curious in terms of the jolts data, how is that interpreted, versus the jobs data >> yeah, so, the jolts data is a little bit older

it did go the wrong way on the fed. it suggested that job openings were back on the way up. it was commence rate with a decline in the unemployment rate that made some sense you had some job tightening, or better job -- a better job market in the month of april we'll get the may data, and i think the may data will basically supercede the april data, so, we're looking -- the thing is, melissa, if the consensus is 188,000, that's still pretty strong for an economy that -- a country that produces say 100,000, 90,000 new workers every month, and the unemployment rate is still 3.5%. so, the fed is going to want some more loosening of the job market before it is satisfied inflation is under control and just to give you a number, melissa, it's -- it's about a 65%, 66% probability of a hike in july, so, all they've done is said, skip, not pause. >> right steve, thank you steve lease mann it's amazing that we spent 14

minutes talking about the disinflation of the commodities com complex, and yet, it's all about the jobs market and how tight that is still for the fed. >> yeah, i think the fed, well, everything that the fed looks at is in the rear view mirror anyway so, i think they would -- i do believe a skip is a pause, right? it's not a pivot so -- >> right >> i don't know why we're arguing over that language >> a skip is a pause -- i see what you mean. >> no one is saying we're pivoting anymore at this point they should skip but karen has always pointed this out the fed -- if the market's going to give you that extra raise, then maybe you want to just take it, but i think everything that we've been arguing about, the top is just 6 to 10 different stocks that have kept the market up, the fed should not been confused that the market is overwhelmingly bullish right now. it's a handful of names, and i think sometimes they won't admit it, but they get jaded by the overall market being up versus the handful of text stocks and

they should skip or pause. >> the most important ingredient in inflation is the job market and if you look at where the unemployment -- the job openings to unemployment rate is, we're about 1.79, it was 1.67, that's jobs per people looking. the natural rate is 0.8. so, we're two times higher than where the fed should see comfort, and i just think they have to keep -- they have to keep moving. and i see 20 byes between now and july, and i think that's right. we've got a news alert on jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon's deposition eamon javers is here >> that's right. we have a copy of that deposition he went in to be deposed on friday we have now learn what he said in that deposition in that case, involving allegations that jpmorgan contributed to jeffrey epstein's sex crimes by not kicking him out of the bank and doing more to alert law enforcement at the time. broadly here, melissa, this is a 4 18-page document, we're going through it in real time, so,

we're doing some real-time reporting here, but broadly, what jamie dimon says in this deposition is that he was unaware of debates inside the bank as early as 2006, whether or not it was appropriate to keep him as a client said he wasn't involved in any of the decisions around keeping jeffrey epstein or not keeping him in the bank. one of the issues here, ultimately who was in charge of that decision? i want to show you a graphic here, our first graphic, in which he points to the former general counsel, stephen cutler. jamie dimon says, mr. cutler had the ultimate authority to kick him out if he thought it had gone that far. he was delegating reputational decisions to somebody else so, we have jamie dimon saying the general counsel was the guy in charge of kicking someone out of the bank, but we also now learn in his deposition there was an email from stephen cutler, the general counsel, back in 2011, in which cutler suggests he didn't think that jeffrey epsteinshould remain i the bank cutler says, "i would like to put it and him behind us

not a person we should do business with, period. that's the email from cutler to mary erdos, a powerful executive inside the bank back in 2011 so, if that's how cutler felt in 2011, how come epstein remaine a client of the bank for several years? we don't get a clear answer to that in this deposition. also want to bring you, we are getting emails now from a lot of the participants in this case. i want to give you one additional statement that we just got seconds ago from jpmorgan about all this. they say, just reading now, had the firm believed he was engaged in an ongoing sex trafficking operation, epstein would not have been retained as a client in hindsight, we regret he was ever a client. so, that's the statement now from jpmorgan in the wake of this deposition being released to us, melissa >> it seems, eamon, that since cutler sent that email, there's an implication that mary erdos ultimately had the power to kick jeffrey epstein out of the bank?

>> right there's a lot of wrangling in this deposition about who had the ultimate authority was it cutler, was it erdos, was it jes staley, who was a close personal friend of epstein who was it that ultimately had the authority? or was it jamie dimon himself? dooimd says it was culter will, but we see in the email that cutler at least had the opinion that epstein shouldn't be in the bank did he officially ban epstein? that seems to be the nuance here erdos said she didn't believe it was her authority to report this to anybody, so, the question here is, you know, we got all sides pointing fingers at all sides in terms of who had the responsibility to do this. clearly, jpmorgan now feels like they should have done it at the time >> eamon, thank you. eamon javers this would be perfect use case for a.i. to go through that 400-page deposition. >> i thought the same thing. >> karen, at what point is this a blow back on the jpmorgan stock? >> to the stock, i don't know.

obviously, it's not great. you don't want to be involved in this, but there's a lot of unanswered questions here. we see the email from cutler to erdos. we don't know the response, we don't know where jes staley was at the time. i'm not sure the timeline of when he left and that actually happened i do think it's quite clear, this has been apparent to them, why would they need this as a client i don't know, it sort of feels like extortion i don't understand how it is jpmorgan's fault, if that's what -- if that's what they're, i guess, implying, that jeffrey epstein committed the acts that he committed so, i don't know i think it should -- i'm surprised actually they haven't settled in the past, they've settled things they really believed they had the upper hand or were right. this obviously isn't great for them. coming up, afterhours action in salesforce and c3.ai. shares are on the move the details next.

and speaking of quarters, ka try hitting levels not seen in more that two years. the news that ha checking out "fast money" is back in two. as far as it does fast. a cs as sleek as it is... spacious. as smart... as it is beautiful. introducing the lucid air. experience the best. ♪

as a business owner, your bottom line experience the best. is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business:

comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network, with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to 75% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on c3.ai. shares lower in the afterhours despite a beat on the top and bottom lines the conference call is happening right now. steve kovach has the numbers >> yeah this is one of the year's a.i. darlings shares have more than tripled so far this year, but down about 18% now, despite the beats on the top and bottom line. stock was down before the results crossed, just four minutes before the conference call started at 5:00 p.m quick look at the results here loss per share coming in at 13 cents versus the 17 cents adjusted that's a beat. revenue also a beat. now, one thing that could be pressuring shares, the lighter than expected full-year guy dance, with the range of $295 million to $320 million. also, this is coming just a couple weeks after c3.ai raised guidance shares were down more than 8% today ahead of the report, down

now about 18%. conference call under way now, and we'll get back to you with anymore headlines, melissa >> steve, thank you. steve kovach c3.ai, one of the best tickers on wall street. >> what did they do? >> it doesn't matter what they do their ticker is a.i. how does this chart look >> sure, yeah, a.i. will do it what we know is, before the long weekend, stock closed at $32.94 and of course, where is it indicated now post earnings? back to where it started my hunch is, if you're long, and you've now suffered a bit, stay, but for new money, buy here, should hold. >> all right, let's get to salesforce now the company seeing shares lower. the company's conference call is under way. julia boorstin has a look at the quarter. julia? >> well, melissa, salesforce shares, they are down in afterhours trading despite the stock beating expectations on the top and bottom lines and there are a couple of things that could be contributing to the stock falling. it is down nearly 5% now, capital expend sures topped

expectations, $243 million, up 36% from the year ago cap-x quarter. the company raised its full-year earnings guidance, and reaffirmed revenue guidance, so, investors could be disappointed that it didn't raise that top line outlook, despite the 11% revenue growth in the quarter. on the call, which is happening right now, the ceo talking about the progress the company has made in terms of margins and he raised margin guidance, stressing the progress made with salesforce's a.i. engine called enstein gpt, saying there's much more to come in terms of slack and generative a.i he talked about salesforce will be a trusted partner for companies as they navigate what will be the transformative power of generative a.i. he also announced they're investing $250 million in an a.i.-focused venture fund. be sure to tune into "mad money" tonight, where jim cramer will be speaking to the salesforce

ceo. julia, thank you. today in general was not a good day for a.i., a.i. appreciation. they probably mentioned -- sounds like they mentioned a.i. several times on their -- >> they used to work last week >> right, exactly. and this week, not so much >> if you look at the stock chart, it broke out of a declining trend line back in february i guess that was around the time when they got rid of the activists that wanted seats on the board, or -- i'm -- >> they had a big quarter, i think. >> and they had a big quarter to follow, so, that's what got them off his scent. and they broke out of the decline trend in february. it seems like they have a little bit more, but he's just been gobbling up resistance on the chart. and he's outperformed everything in the space he's a machine, never bet against him. sort of like a tesla but sort of like a musk. and i don't know if he's extended here and if he's going

to play the a.i. card as we go down that path, to your point, how you opened up the segment, but i think if you are fortunate enough to gain this market share from february of market appreciation, maybe you want to sell it and take a look. >> yeah, i think this stock is a function of where it's come from it's up 76% after that same cpi load that we talk about that marked a lot of bottoms out there. a lot of people say the market has been five stocks, it's not so, the things that were disappointing, i'm guessing, for the street here, are c-pro, so, crm pro came in a little lighter than expected. and this is a higher margin business their operating margin, despite the reaffirming of the top line for '24 was kind of in line, and after this kind of a move, i think that's what we get back to software, as a group, has traded phenomenally well. and i think it will probably, in a weaker rate environment -- you're not chasing this one. i wouldn't be chasing this one but i do think you have to be

careful. all right, a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next first world problems one luxury retailer cutting its forecast, as the u.s. consumer passes on fancy handbags and shoes. so, what's next for the space in the face of rising cost? plus, tech's been on a tear. and the a.i. surge is on everyone's mind. but our next guest warns investors chasing the trade may be in for some pain. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. if s kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com is may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more.

♪♪ dads are special. fun. inspiring. always there for you. so make father's day extra special with gifts he'll love from weathertech. floorliners... cargo liner... seat protector... sunshade... ready-to-wash system and cupfone. or our newest product, the golf cart mat. order these american made gifts or a gift card at weathertech.com have a very happy father's day.

. welcome back to "fast money. buzz kill on capri holdings.

the stock hitting its lowest level since december 2020. the company said revenues fell 10%, cut its current year sales forecast and said weaker demand in the united states will continue this summer this sounds familiar i feel like they did this before, karen. >> yeah, they did -- >> in february >> they did do it before and they said we're going to do it again next quarter that's the thing i find -- it wasn't a good quarter, by any stretch. i want to say that so, the commentary about north america and being slower also china reopening has not been as good as hoped. so, there's a lot not to like. the big miss on wholesale, they told us that was coming. so, it's sort of amazing to me it's down a lot again on the same news on a company that has a mid single digit p.e. at this point, a good balance sheet, so, it's kind of amazing for it to get hit so hard twice on the same news. but this grand experiment of

trying to create a luxury conglomerate that would trade at a luxury conglomerate price has not worked at all. and i know john has been there a long time, he believes it's going to work, he bought $10 million worth of stock about two months ago, i can't remember exactly, somewhere in the high 30s, 39ish or so knowing that this quarter had this going on. so, it's kind of perplexing to me, but i get people saying, you know what, not only checking out, just abandoning the cart and just leaving i get it >> that's lvmh -- >> this has been on a tear >> it's not like it doesn't work it's just not working -- >> and that's why people thought this was going to work and i look towards the ceo buying $10 million worth of stock a couple of weeks before the quarter ended as some sort of insight to where the stock was going to go. we've seen other stocks in the same sector and space do dramatically better, and when you look at the sales of versace

and jimmy choo, they were great. the revenue, that was a large part due to maybe fx, i could have been a healthy amount >> are youguys holding this >> yes >> i power pitched this as a high teenager -- >> it doesn't mean you stick with it. >> i've traded it over the course of the ups and downs, but i really was convicted, i thought we were going to see a pop. >> there's one person we should consult. carter, quickly. the chart on capri >> he loves jimmy choos. >> it's terrible this is a business that doesn't need to exist. it's terrible. >> oh, wow wow. all right. you heard it there >> should have called him last night. coming up, check yourself before you tech yourself our next guest is warning of an a.i. overload and tech's big rally. dan suzuki is with us next to lay out why you shouldn't chase the trade before learning the ins and outs more on that when "fast money" returns.

with two max-strength pain relievers, so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro.

welcome back to "fast money" a news alert on delynn quincy ra ra rates. >> it shot up in may to a

14-month high, driven by, of course, office it's the biggest jump since june of 2020. the start of the pandemic. and this, according to new numbers just given to us by trep office delinquencies jumped to 4.02%, the highest since 2018. sub-lease space is at or near record highs due to a big drop in demand from big tech. just yesterday, google announced it was offering up 1.4 million square feet in northern california for sub-lease not just office, but the cmbs total rate shot up 53 basis points to 3.62%. the rate is the highest level since march 2022 to put that in perspective, the all-time high was in july 2012, which was nearly matched by the covid high in june 2020 at 10% melissa? >> how should we think about this in relation to defaults, diana? >> well, delinquencies turn into defaults it depends on how they're going to work out the loans, what they're going to do, sell off the properties we know the property values are

significantly lower, especially in office, over 50% lower than they were prepandemic. >> diana, thank you. karen, you've been in some office rates, so, how do you take a look at these numbers >> well, they're not surprising, right? and we know that the financing rates that were used to underpin these investments were zeroish, you know, you can round to that, clearly there's something very different now. we haven't yet seen the shakeout it's starting a little you're seeing people literally handing the keys back to the banks, and we're seeing big property, like, collections of big properties starting to move, even in new york city a little bit. to me, that's very near the bottom there's a freeze before that, offers are just too far apart. >> they have to do something, they have to turn over the keys which is happening. okay, let's turn to big tech our next guest warns the a.i. driven rally is getting too

extreme. dan suzuki is with us. you've been a longtime tech bear long suffering tech bear >> sure, yeah, absolutely. >> it's harder and harder to make that case with the a.i. rally. >> listen, i mean, clearly tech has had a big rebound, but i think -- i've looked atthe historical rebounds that you get after big drawdowns, and it's always a mirror image of what went down. so, it doesn't tell you anything about what's going to happen going forward, in fact, it's almost a zero correlation with what that future leadership is going to look like, so, i wouldn't read too much into it this is just how things go and the way i look at it from a macro perspective, this isn't going to be groundbreaking, so, it is either going to get worse or get better. >> the economy >> the economy, profits, if things get worse, i think people are underestimating their cyclicality. companies are going to invest less, people are going to buy less expensive gadgets the other scenario is that things get better, and a scenario where things get better, why would you pay so

much for these companies where you have companies that are more cyclical, that are trading at dirt cheap valuations, are going to see earnings go up a lot more i think neither scenario, tech has a risk of catching down in will catch up. >> some would say in the first scenario, where things are heading lower, that this area of tech offers you secular growth, not cyclical growth, that companies need to invest a certain amount in a.i., otherwise they are left behind and that's why so many people are piling in. do you think that's just all hogwash? >> i think people jump from narrative to narrative, right? i mean, up until a couple months ago, a.i. wasn't really on the radar for people, it was all these other reasons that you have to own tech and so, now there's this narrow hope that you got to own a.i., but think about -- what's the difference between a.i. and internet wasn't internet a bigger boom? yet had you invested in 2000, those were terrible investments, and tech investing overall fell

17% in that collapse of liquidity and credit during that period so, i'm wildly bullish on technology's application if there's a budget out there, i probably have it i love the technology, i think the applications will be huge, but it doesn't mean it's a good investment >> so, what are you wildly bullish on the note says you're focused on long duration assets, which kind of sounds like high multiple tech you actually playing for growth out in the future. i know that's not what you're saying, because you're telling us that's not your position. talk about where you think there are opportunities -- sounds like value is your friend and that's the place to chase >> well, getting back to duration, i think, you know, i think rates are going to go down, because i think the economy, it looks like, is slowing down, and i think that's going to bring rates down with it in that scenario, would you own expensive duration, the high growth tech names, or do you want to own countercyclical cheap duration, which is what you get when you get long-term treasuries i like duration here

but what else do we like generally, we're in an earnings recession and liquidity is tightening that's a recipe for owning higher quality assets. we are a little bit more cautious on things, we want to own things that are going to be less sensitive to a slowing cycle. the one area that's different that we've talked about on the show, which is also, you know, hasn't been working lately is china. i think china is the one area of the world where profits are accelerating people forget the entire global economy went to zero during covid and things got less bad, you know, that was huge for profits. that's kind of where they are today. they had a property crisis, overregulation of their industries, all those things are going the other direction. i think that's the one thing that's underestimated here >> dan, great to see you in person >> thank you, guys >> carter braxton worth, what chart looks better or worse? china or the a.i. complex? >> so, one is very, very bad,

china, kweb, for instance, and the instance, is it right to bottom fish? i suspect so versus the a.i. phenomenon, which is crowded, overloved, and very risky >> okay. coming up, value hunting in the chip sector? the stock that might now be a big value play in the space. and later, the chart master is all bulled up on tesla. why he sees the strong driving even higher. "fast money" is back in two. need relief for tired, achy feet? or the energy to keep working? there's a dr. scholl's for that. dr. scholl's massaging gel insoles have patented gel waves that absorb shock to hard-working muscles and joints, for all-day energy.

- [soldier] take a look at this! to hard-working muscles - they've left us a gift. - [soldier] i think we misjudged them. - i love horses. (birds chirping) - [soldier] we should open the gate. - let's see what charlotte thinks. - [narrator] at crowdstrike, we monitor trillions of cyber events to detect threats and prevent breaches before they happen to keep your business from becoming history. we stop cyberattacks. we stop breaches. we stop a lot of bad things from happening. crowdstrike. protection that powers you. hi, i'm todd. i'm a veteran of 23 years. i served three overseas tours. i love to give back to the community. i offer what i can when i can. i started noticing my memory was slipping. i saw a prevagen commercial and i did some research on it. i started taking prevagen about three years ago. i feel clearer in my thoughts, my memory has improved and generally just more on point. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. ♪ ♪

and generally just more on point. every single day, businesses everywhere are asking the exact same question: is it possible? well...with comcast business...it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? so we can better protect our customer data? aww-yeah. absolutely. what else you got? can we use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? before they even exist? we can help with that. - hmm. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. even out here. you, sir. something on your mind? is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? with wifi analytics? easy. order for nina! can i teleport our guests to their rooms? technically, no. or power thousands of mobile check-ins while thousands of other guests check out? now that we can do. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

welcome back to "fast money," shares up 5% today after the company's cfo said the status division is turning the corner nvidia's ceo said they were open to partner ing with intel could this move be a big catchup? tim, you are hoping so >> yeah, when intel had that almost 40% run from mid-february to the end of march, actually faded some of that, got back in around 29. i think intel, long-term, it's a fix-it story the fact they've been out there talking, they were talking about their a.i., their falcon chip, which is going to be out by 2025, by then, invid that is going to have a new chip out they are running behind and they are trying to catch up fast, but i think the positioning back to -- that's how i think about some of these trades, at least later on, i think people are so

underweight intel here i'm sure any good news and people will be chasing it here so, yeah, i think you can own it >> if that headline doesn't take place, intel continues to slide lower -- >> you mean the tieup with nvidia >> yeah, i think anything nvidia touches or says that they're going to touch is going to wind up having a midas touch, but intel has been such an underperformer until we get to that phase where you start buying the lag bgertsi think the top heaviness of the market continues, or, the whole market actually subsides, so, i don't -- i don't necessarily think, i think tim's wise to trade around his intel position. i can't see it coming back into favor with the rest of the community. >> all right, well, options traders are betting on movement from intel let's go to kevin kelly with more >> hi, melissa today, we saw a lot of option trading volume in intel options, with about four times the amount

of calls traded versus puts. and what was pretty telling is a lot of the action today was in the front month, june at the money calls, the 32 strike, and they're priced around 97 cents right now, but we saw over 15,000 contracts trade, and the open interest is around 5,000, so, there's obviously going to be sentiments follow through to the upside, given today's action >> kevin, thank you. kevin kelly. for more options action, tune into the full show friday, 5:30 eastern time coming up, the chart master says it's time to put the pedal at the metal on tesla. wh he's seeing in the charts coming up next on "fast money.

this is the all new, all electric lucid air. a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is... spacious.

as smart... as it is beautiful. introducing the lucid air. experience the best. ♪

welcome back to "fast money. shares of tesla coming off a strong month now up 65% in 2023 and the chart master sees a buying opportunity in this battleground ev name let's turn to carter for the thesis carter >> right, so, what we have here, by my work, is a stock that's making a turn. we coloan look at a couple chars to put it in perspective the first chart you'll see here, there's nothing. those are perfectly parallel mathematical lines let's look at the second chart what that is is tesla. tesla has adhered to these well-defined trends up and down, and now we are just now reaching

the upper band of the down trend channel, in effect, since the peak my hunch is we're going to push through. let's look at two short-term charts the first, whether you anno state it this way, as i have, or not, it's what a reversal formation looks like doesn't matter whether you call it a cup and handle. we have a stock that's putting in a bottom. now, if you would, look at the final iteration, and what we have here, of course, is a well defined down trend line. and to my eye, we're going to punch higher, as high as 225 or thereabouts. day-to-day relative strength is good i would pair this against a short in the qs, where you have such stretched names as apple, invid ya, and others >> you know, it's funny, carter, because the first chart, i thought it looked like tet la would test the middle line of that downward channel, as opposed to go higher, but the next two charts made sense to me how do we know that it doesn't

go down and stay in that channel that it's stayed in for so long? >> we don't. that's what -- judgment is a critical faculty we'll see. >> what do you see >> i'm still long it i got long at around the bottom, i bought more at around the top, so net i'm still in good positioning here i think to make it really easy for the person playing at home is, you want to stick -- it's got to be above the 200-day moving average, which is right here, slightly below $200, and big fat round numbers. you want to see it hold this little breakout, because everyone's talking about this being a very good a.i. play with autonomous taxis and the like. it's a battery play, it's an emerge energy play, ford is coming to use their chargers play. it's not a car company, just a car company, it's an energy company, it's a -- >> it's an everything you want to be in company >> spoken like a true bull

>> banging the table here. >> nothing more bullish than a bulled up bull >> well, i like his hedge. i think if you look at qs, you're trading at a 75 rsi the semis are over 80 and haven't been this high outside of november '21, which is a big top. you have such a major run in the entire group that i think we're due for a bit of a pull-back, but in terms of where that -- i agree with you, melissa, i kind of saw that chart and that downward channel, i saw us at the upper end of a downward trend. but what do i know up next -- to each his own up nex falras.t,in tde

did you ever stress about us having three kids? no, that was always part of the plan. three kids?! this was never part of the plan! these kids order the lobster mac 'n cheese! what if she wants to play golf? we're going to have to outlaw golf. absolutely no golf in this house! not under my roof! since we started working with empower, all of our financial questions have been answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- nope. always part of the plan. join 17 million people and take control of your financial future to empower what's next. start today at empower.com

time for the final trade carter >> long the qs, take measures. trim, reduce, or sell. >> tim >> staples, i think, still have some room to move lower, but there are places you've had some extreme moves, and budweiser, the brazilian beer company, it bothers people saying that, has had a massive pull-back and you start nibbling on this one >> chairwoman? >> yes, lieu lieu lemon. i've been waiting to buy the company, but i'm going to wait one more day, which is their earnings tomorrow night. i'll look at it after that >> steve >> this one's going to make

carter happy and hopefully it makes me happier tesla, final trade >> all right thank you so much for watching "fast money. we'll see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make a little money my job isn't just to entertain, it's to earn you money for the first time we're in a fast slowdown within a titanic boom it's such a riddle wpp