good wednesday morning i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. setting the agenda for us today, mike air get ty with $360 billion under management on the state of private credit, the outlook for the economy, and expectations for the fed >> billionaire real estate titan rick caruso is with us as well, weighing on this debt limit deal, the economy, and california and what real estate might tell us about the state of the consumer >> speaking of real estate, later, one of the world's largest players in commercial real estate, ivanhoe cambridge ceo, nathalie palaldithc joining

us on set. >> every sector on the s&p is re red. financials one of the ones to watch. energy to the helping either, >> got two big data surprises today. chicago manufacturing, a lot worse than expected. and then, jolts, the job openings data, higher than expected with a 10 million job openings, which is not what everyone expected with the job market starting to show some weakness all of that adds up to, you know, more uncertainty around whether the fed will have to keep going on raising interest rates in june, potentially even july that could be a headwind for stocks at the same time, we're waiting on this debt ceiling deal. i think the market assumes that we're going -- it's going to happen, even with the flurry of nos that we keep seeing on twitter from some of the republican house members >> there have been some nos on both sides, but leader mcconnell saying he'll support it when it

gets to the senate, which gives you a little bit of peace of mind, which could plead into the weekend, as long as it happens before the monday "x" date and we'll get beige book this afternoon. >> and i know you love the tan book -- >> because it's so good. it's all the anecdotes and the fed looks at it really closely and they put it all together, from each individual district. and you get some good threads. last time in the beige book, we got some good evidence that inflation is moderating a bit. and that we're starting to see the impact of the credit tightening in the economy, from the bank failures. so going to be looking for things like that in regions across the country, of course. you know, we also got some inflation data overseas today. germany, spain, showing moderating inflation so the debate continues about what the fed has to do, because we're still above -- and other central banks, we're still above comfortable levels, but we're showing weakness in the economy, as well. >> yeah, i mean, i think it was

ed yardenni looking earlier in the week at 3-1. obviously, you're slicing and dicing at this point but if you add the prospect of used car prices coming down and shelter inflation moderating, maybe we -- >> shelter's key used car prices, oil, people point to commodities we know goods prices are coming down it's really all about services and wages, and that's going to be the key for a jobs report on friday, i think. >> are that's right. >> coming up >> meanwhile, private credit has become one of the hottest areas of the market, astraditional lending, as we've just been discussing has started to dry up following the recent banking turmoil. our next guest has quietly become one of the most successful credit-focused firms on wall street, beating its peers like kkr and plaquestone rallying 20% in the past year. 286% in the past five years. joining us now in an exclusive interview is aris management corporation, cofounder, ceo, and president, mike arengeti so the explosion of private

credit you see a big opportunity here why? >> absolutely. >> if you think about generally what the economy needs, it's reliable liquidity somebody needs to come in and fig that void. but at the end of the day, it's what does the investor want or need and what they need is reliable yield. what people probably don't appreciate most about private credit, it's a floating rate have instrument. for the last 16 months, it's been meaningful outperforming while most traditional fixed income instruments are not doing what they're supposed to be doing for the investor >> we hear this from kkr, from blackstone, from tcw everyone's in the private credit game now how do you distinguish yourself? or is it just there's so much demand >> it's a huge addressable market there's more equity looking for capital solutions in the credit market, than there's dollars available. there's plenty of room for continued growth we've been doing it longer than anybody, so having a 30-year track record built over time

through cycles, i think that's the big differentiator, but as this market continues to perform in volatile markets, i think you're going to see more capital flowing, which is not necessarily a bad thing. >> and who are you primarily lending to >> private credit is a huge global market, so we lend to the corporate markets, that could be private equity sponsors, family-owned businesses, et cetera public companies from time to time and in the real estate market, we're a large private lender to institutional owners of equity in the infrastructure markets, very large private lending business into the global inframarket. so i think as the market begins to see more of this, this narrow view of lending to private equity sponsors will get turned on its head and people will realize the value of private credit globally across a whole host of asset classes. >> when you think about the silos that are going to need the liquid liquidity, is real estate at the top? >> real estate is probably the tip of the spear right now, and that's a function of the fact that those assets are going into those crisised more leveraged.

they've been served predominantly by the banks, which will be pulling back on capital availability so, yeah, i think, real estate for sure but right now, we're having a liquidity issue more than we're having a credit issue. private credit is going to be a big part of the solution here, bringing capital into some of these assets, when the equity markets are a little challenged to find their footing. >> so do you think this is partly why we haven't seen a bigger credit crunch in the economy? because after these banks started failing, that was the worry. the fed was worried about it, investors were worried about it. and we monitor the weekly data from the fed and you haven't seen that kind of doomsday scenario >> when you think about what's going on in the banking system, it's a little bit of an indictment of the structure, right? credit is sound? non-performing loans are low we're seeing that in our credit books as well. it's really a function of deposit security and the structure of the liability so one of the reasons why we're not talking about credit yet, we're not really having a credit issue. job market is continuing to be strong, we're seeing in our

private portfolios that even though debt service is becoming more challenging, cash flow is growing, revenue is growing, so the set-up still pretty good >> swo we don't need to worry about delinquencies or defaults? there's still these arguments that we're headed for a chapter of defaults. >> we've been doing this a long time and each cycle is different. defaults by definition have to go up. we can't absorb this level of increase in rates without seeing defaults increase. that being said, i think the system is deleveraged relative to prior both angst, consumers deleverage, corporate balance sheets are higher. we're going in with more capacity to deal with the rate increases. it feels like we're almost at terminal rate. we could argue, if we're going to have one more, two more, or none but getting to a point where the market will be able to react even as defaults are going up, i think there'll be enough liquidity in the system to come in and resolve that. we're not calling for any meaningful stress. >> so you think we can avoid a recession? >> i'm hopeful

i think that there is an insignificant probability that that's what happens here >> just because you don't see the kind of leverage and issues that you would typically see going in >> yeah, i'll give you an example. in our corporate loan book, which is a pretty good proxy for the private credit market, we saw ebitda growth year over year as of last quarter grow 8% obviously, those companies are seeing slowing growth. they're having to deal with increased debt service costs but at the end of the day, when we get to the other side of this rate hiking cycle and the debt service resolves itself, i think people can get on growing at that pace. >> are you seeing any imbalances that make you nervous or areas that you would avoid i wonder what you make of this rush into technology and whether this ai productivity story has legs >> i think it does again, we're not public market practitioners, so we're trying to think about the long-term impacts of this technology on every industry that we touch clearly, we'll be transformational we'll also be deflationary,

right? and so when we're thinking about, what is the next year or two look like, as this technology gets deployed, putting aside the valuation implication in the public market, it will have a deflationary effect, which i think will be part of the story of how we get to the other side of this. >> you're also in private equity and in infrastructure, other sort of private market plays where else are you seeing the biggest opportunities, beyond private credit >> private credit is clearly at the top of the list. and i think the reason for that is the liquid markets are challenged, right? ipo market is challenged the denominator effect is rolling through the private equity market. so really any part of the private markets where we can come in with a capital solution to create duration or runway for some of these companies to get through this rate hike cycle is really the name of the game. we're seeing that across the board, all geographies and asset classes, but more on the structured equity and debt side. >> do you think there's going to be a big competition once the

fed eventually reaches its point where it raises rates enough, and you could see more money coming back into the public markets? >> i would hope so there's a great symbiosis between the public markets and the private markets. one of the things we see in the private market is a building pipeline of transactions that want to come so part of what needs to happen is we just need to get stability in rates the bid ask machine will resolve itself that will be good for private markets and public markets >> you sound fairly constructive you talk about the most telegraphed recession, fit comes. balance sheets have had time to prepare and batten down the hatches. and by the time it comes, maybe you do get some relief in rates. i'm just trying to think where the potholes are >> i think people are talking about them, but they're trying to talk themselves into it we've been constructive since people started talking about the recession a year and a half ago.

we have the benefit of seeing 3,000 middle-market companies and what we're seeing on the ground is that the numbers are coming through we have to be careful that we don't talk ourselves into it it's not to say that we shouldn't expect slowing growth, but we are quite constructive. >> and we're not worried about commercial real estate >> not worried about it. i think there are some structural challenges there that will need to get resolved, particularly in the office market in certain geographies, but you can't paint the entire cre market just with the office brush. and if you start to dig down and say, where are the exposures, office is a big part of this negative story, but a lot of other sectors in the market are quite sound, industrial, multi-family, student housing, self-storage so i think there are a lot of tail winds there, too. >> we'll talk a lot about this hour ivanhoe, cambridge ceo here. good to see you. mike arougheti coming up after the break,

one-time l.a. mayoral candidate rick caruso will talk about real estate and the resurgence in california he'll join us after the break. plus, wells fargo says one payments platform is the best way to hedge against a consumer slowdown we'll break down the call straight ahead and watch intel today, s spiking. they're speaking at td cowen this morning also, these comments from jensen wang about whether intel could compete thheik otaanwi t lesf iw semi, when we come back. because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even

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turbulence in banks, the impact on commercial real estate. according to our next guest, one space where property demand does remain strong is retail, seeing strong leasing momentum and foot traffic across his portfolio joining us this morning is rick ca caruso, founder and ceo of crusoe, a real estate giant in southern california that owns three of the top ten retail centers in the country rick, good to have you back. good morning >> good morning. good seeing you, carl. >> i tell you, we were worried for a while, especially in the depths of this latest banking episode. just talk to me about how you think we've rebounded from that. and is it about -- is it a luxury story, specifically, or is it broader than that? >> i think it's more than that i mean, there's certainly a luxury story to it the luxury retailers are doing very well. the growth is very strong. they're expanding mightily certainly here in southern

california and los angeles but i think it's a little bit more across the board. listen, also, you can't lump everything into one sort of sector so geographically, it changes. our properties are all outdoor properties, very much focused on an experience that we're creating and making sure that we've got properties that are highly productive, highly enjoyable for the consumer on the properties we're out to enrich people's life in a great setting and driving sales. so our sales per square foot growth across our portfolio is running 20% this year. we're very happy about that. and demand for our space is very high >> do you -- how long-lasting can that be, especially when people continue to write the obituary, it's a rolling obituary now, of the u.s. consumer >> well, they've been writing a lot of obituaries. brick and mortar is dead and everything will be online, and consumer is dead in spite of the fact that we're talking about a recession and we pay go into a recession, whether

it's slight or larger or moderate, the consumer is still spending we're seeing consumer spending up our attendance on our properties is up 16%. so the consumer is spending the savings that they've had now, i think that we may see some falling off a little bit, geographically there's no doubt about that. but certainly, at the higher end, it's staying. but it's also across sectors i mean, look at the sales of sf sephora, nike, across the board. apple in their retail physical spaces very, very strong. so i'm pretty optimistic about where we're heading, but i'm also realistic that in an environment with rising interest rates, which is my biggest concern, we're going to dampen down spending and we may have some pulling back by retailers on their expansion plans until there's a little bit more clarity. but retailers are not going to be rolling the dice. they don't have to they're going to go back to their good old friend, which are

physical stores, that help drive sales and profitability for them >> california has a bad reputation, now, rick, for retail, for commercial real estate a lot of it is san francisco, but l.a. too when it comes to office distress. are you saying that it's not true or you're sort of bucking threa that trend, because you're in luxury retail? >> i think we're an anomaly, but you're absolutely right, look at the downtown region, san francisco, chicago, parts of new york, seattle, portland, the urban centers are suffering. you look at downtown los angeles, there are 11 buildings at or in foreclosure two very already gone back to the banks. high-rise, class "a" office buildings. the domino effect, especially on small retailers, which is really sad, orrestauranteurs, if you don't have daytime population, those businesses are going to

skpufr suffer and they are suffering. it's driven by crime, by homelessness, what's happening on the streets we've got to change. it and a lot of these cities are bl blind to what's happening around them and the elected officials aren't leaning in and doing something about it, which has to happen there are other sectors of los angeles that are doing well in los angeles. century city, for example, is a strong market. >> i know you were trying to fix that you had some support, didn't quite get it, are you going to continue to pursue these opportunities, especially if you blame a lot of what's happening on the politics? >> i'm going to be long on los angeles, always going to be active i've been involved actively for 40 years in the city of los angeles. so that's not going to change. whether or not i run for office again, onknow. time will tell but what i am going to do is do everything i can to make sure that these issues come to the forefront, and people realize that they're solvable. the homeless problem is solvable rising crime is solvable we need to have elected

officials, quite frankly that have some backbone, encourage, and make some good, tough decisions that make the livability of our cities better. >> finally, rick, on travel, you know, american airlines had some guidance today, where they upped guidance for the quarter, but kept the year in tact, which makes them wonder if even the industries that are doing quite well, like airlines, are a little bit suspect about the back half of the year. i just wonder from a lodging standpoint if you're anticipating any slowdown as well >> you know, the slowdown that we saw up at the rosewood miramar up in montecito was because of the weather we've had in l.a today it broke, we got great weather. we're on one of the most beautiful beaches in california. so we're predicting that the last half of this year is going to be strong we're running an adr of about 2,500, which is very high. we're number one in our sector i think there's going to be more growth in europe, quite frankly, and looks like a lot of growth in asia, especially japan.

so we'll see how that kbablt ims us, but going to the beach on a beautiful day is always a great thing to do. >> where are you investing, now, rick what's missing in your portfolio? where do you see a big opportunity? >> more apartments we're adding more apartments to our existing retail centers up in calabasas, in montecito, we're adding more retail at the miramar. bewant to lean in heavily on retail we have two times the amount of demand on our properties that we can satisfy. so we are going to lean into that but residential, more retail, and clearly we want to do another resort we're proud of what we built up in miramar and we want to do more we're looking for sites. >> we were in your hood last week and it is gorgeous. >> you've got to wander down the beach a little bit, carl, and you would have been at a five-star resort and you would have loved it. >> it looked gorgeous. rick, we'll see you soon thanks so much for the guidance today. >> see you, sarah.

bye, carl. >> montecito is beautiful. i've decided i would like to retire there later the hour, one of the largest real estate commercial players with more than $50 billion in assets. ceo of ivanhoe cambridge will join us with exposure to europe, asia, and the u.s. we were watching american raising their guidance on the quarter. strong travel, lower fuel costs. stock, though, not reacting, as we said, they did keep the full year in tact stay with us

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a quick look at hp and hewlett-packard. both stocks lower as they missed revenue estimates. the worst performer as q2 revenue guide was below. the ceo told us they're navigating what he called an uneven market with general purpose computing struggling >> yeah, he said the unevenness in the macro environment, but did say a lot of demand for ai enterprise products. that was antonio neary last hour lower close for europe today oil and gas stocks, the chief

laggards with crude on pace for its worst month this year. major indexes across the country at two-month lows with the euro sitting at its lowest level since march. soft cpi and inflation data in france the story abroad is in china with already weak manufacturing data getting worse in may, and factory activity slowing significantly. investors are worried the downward spiral in the chinese economy is becoming more of a reality. we've got a 48 on manufacturing which was worse than expected. also, the services component coming in a little bit worse as well as we wonder what happened to that big bullish recovery narrative, which was supposed to play out in china. they didn't seem to have as much pent-up demand or as much stimulus in the term of cash transfers as we did coming out of covid >> look at the hangseng, you can see we basically traded place. and today citi says china is at risk of a double dip of a self-confidence trap once again, they argue they're

going to have make some policy decisions to get something going. in what was expected to be a 7% gdp year at one point. >> so now there's question about whether they have appetite for fiscal and monetary stimulus i don't think there's much high expectations on that front they could weaken interest rates. you've seen it play out in the current market, as well, with the dollar against the chinese y yuan, losing almost 3% so far this month that's notable, as well. and you know, a lot of these analysts say, it comes down to corporate and consumer confidence, as you used the word confidence but that's been sort of the week spot in china when it comes to the demand story >> even jim this morning talking about youth employment there still running into the double digits with that, we're down about 260 on the dow let's get a news update with our leslie picker. >> hey, carl, thank you for that house speaker kevin mccarthy sounded optimistic today ahead of the crucial debt vote on the debt ceiling he said following the vote, he will put together a commission to review the budget and try to

find long-term solutions meanwhile, president biden sent white house officials to the capitol this morning to try to show up support. the deal is receiving blowback from conservatives and some progressives nevada is enhancing penalties for people who harassing with intimidate, or use force on the state's election workers the governor signed a bill into law that could send offenders up to prison for years. threats and intimidations ramped up significantly during the 2020 election and a nasa panel formed last year to study what the government calls unidentified aerial phenomenon also known as ufos is due to hold its first public meeting they assemble experts from fields ranging from physics to astrobiology nasa is set to release a report later this morning examining unclassified ufo sightings something to look forward to, guys >> leslie picker, thank you. after the bareak, deutsche

bank thinks that avis can rally. the used car market a big part of that call we're going to get into why those shares are plunging. stay with us

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take a look at the exterior

of the nyse. a nice american flag flying out front. >> beautiful weather >> some of the notes grabbing our attention this morning, a stock mostly flat, calling it, quote, defensive they expect earnings to hold up w well if the inflation is worse than expected. the name is outperforming peers year-to-date let's bring in our own mike santoli. it's an interesting call they run it through a stress nest which revenue growth basically gets cut in half >> it is one of those calls that says, sure, you might be concerned that the consumer is going to weaken into a recession, but maybe it's mostly price data and if you're worried about all of the consumer credit names, maybe amex is better positioned. you can see why it's a little bit of a tough sell in terms of a catalyst, but bigger picture, the stock is trading roughly, maybe below its average valuation on what they're suggesting a reasonable earnings estimate is. the stock is definitely over the last two years held up better than the likes of capital one,

discover, and sinkynchrony but to me it almost explains why you've seen the ai names dominate it's like, what's priced in, how much might it soften up. it's all about hopes and prayers and growth, as opposed to trying to make that assessment of exactly where we are in pricing in a potential recession >> they point to some expense lovers that can still be polled, even adds we're seeing earnings revisions go higher on the moves that corporate america has already made i wonder if you think there's more in the tank >> i think there's definitely a case to be made that companies are in a decent position to be able to flex on the cost side, still. and relative to other economic downturns, if we get one, companies seem to be able to defend profitability better. i don't know how that plays into amex i was looking at capital one those have been completely

slashed. you remember that capital one's guidance built in 5% unemployment rate by year end, and it's still trading at eight times those earnings you can see the market has gone a long way towards saying, okay, maybe we've sort of bounced. >> i also didn't realize that international growth, they say, is 20% at this point is an underappreciated sort of part of the story. >> and of course, the travel piece has always been a good bullish talking point for anex in the last couple of years. the question is whether people are willing to extrapolate some of the strength in travel. >> speaking of which, that brings us to one more note that got our attention. that's deutsche on avis today, they do upgrade and take the target to 263, which would be 61% upside from here deutsche says the stock has underperformed in comparable sectors, making it appealing for investors looking for a reasonably priced laggard. they see too much negativity in the near-term expectations when it comes to pricing and used car values it has gotten left behind, they argue. >> no doubt that it's been left

behind it's an under-followed stock, still. even for a $6 to $7 billion market cap if you really believe the upside to earnings and the fact that the market is going to appreciate that, you almost have to believe inflation is going to be stubborn, because there's a double beneficiary of sticky inflation. they've been making a lot of money on the residual value of their cars, used car market has been very strong that's been a key sticking point, for people looking for disinflation and again, rental car pricing. they've also had, you know, pretty good price gains in there. it's interesting, yi don't know if you want to hedge it. if you think inflation is coming down or the market says this is durable. >> but actually, these analysts argue that you have to look beyond the details of the used car index coming down and show that the rental risk is holding up considerably better >> exactly and i think maybe that's defensible i don't know obviously, we'll see how it plays through. but i think there's a question

as to how much the market will pay for those earnings you know, that idea that, guess what, used car pricing, original values are going to be stickier than we currently anticipate >> overall, are you impressed with -- i mean, the resilience of today's price action, or this just sort of a -- >> yeah, we're kind of holding it together. again, it's sort of like, you know, a couple of benefactors at the top end of the nasdaq are doing a lot of this work it's tough to feel as if we're not going to have a little reckoning. the equal-weighted s&p is not too far from the march lows. >> overall, the s&p 500 looks fine the 51-day average looks fine. and it's again, that kind of bifurcation and how long can it continue and also, the big question is, on the hot areas cool off as they always must at some point, is there downside to the rest of the stocks that haven't participated to the upside, or have they already done the work? >> barclays says take some gains

in the other ai stocks and put it all in nvidia >> now we're doing the relative trade within the basket. >> mike, thanks. mike santoli on this final day of may coming up next, commercial real estate firm, ivanhoe cambridge, more than $55 billion in assets on five continents are the risks over rising rates and an office crash overblown. we'll talk to the ceo, next. plus, we are watching sew fyi. it's been spiking, second day in a row. heavy volume amid ongoing optimism that it will benefit from the student loan implications of the debt ceiling deal in other words, that there will be payments started again, as a part of this deal. that moratorium ends stay with us here on "squawk on the street." instantly. with two max-strength pain relievers, so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro.

i do think that there are some structural challenges there that are going need to get resolved, particularly in the office market, in certain geographies. but you can't paint the entire cre market just with the office brush. and if you really start to dig down and say, where are the exposures, office is a big part of this negative story,but a lot of other sectors in the market are quite sound, industrial, melt-family, student housing, self-storage. i think there's a lot of things there. >> that was ares management ceo mike arougheti our next guest runs ivanhoe cambridge with more than 1,500 buildings. joining us now here at post nine

is ivanhoe cambridge ceo and president, nathalie p pallad palladitcheff. >> 30% is in and residential is the rest we have that for a long time in the united states, because it has always been the most liquid and innovative market in real estate >> what about in the office space? what does that look like right now? >> as i said, it's only 20% of our portfolio, so for example, in new york, we have four buildings, four towers, which are full we have played and i think we are known to have been very pro of diversification in our portfolio. very early, we started to dispose of some offices and multi-residential. we thought that special in the united states, that was a good way to perform and it has been the case

we did more than 12% return last year so i think it's the illustration of the fact that this diversification pays >> you also had a big deal of the fox news building. a $1 billion deal, which i think surprised a lot of people in a tough venvironment. how did that happen? >> that's true it was the biggest lease last year in manhattan. so we're very proud of that. and the team has worked very hard to do it. that's a big building, a good building in midtown. and we believe that this building deserves a long-term lease, which is, of course, the job that we have to do, because we are long-term investors we are not here just for a year, for the next five years, but for the next 50 years, because the pension i'm working for, i'm expecting. so that's why those long-term leases are exactly the name of the game in our industry >> we keep hearing that the cultural conversation around, say, return to office is much different in europe than it is in the united states is that having a material effect on returns or values >> of course

it's -- it's -- i would say it's everywhere different outside of north america, because i was in brazil and mexico just recently. people are back to the office. europe, obviously. asia, they are more back that be they used to be there. 110% back to the office than what they cruused to be, more t before the pandemic. it's really north america, which is very special. and of course, if you look, the entire market through the lens of san francisco or chicago, that sounds very painful but that's not the case in other countries. and it's very correlated to the transportation so i think i have a part of the solution that infrastructure, as the other part >> interesting you mean in terms of public transit or less reliance on cars or something like that >> in terms of public transit. there is a direct correlation between the number of minutes people spend in commute and now

you know what we say is that you have to earn the commute if you're not able to provide the kind of properties that people are expecting right now, especially in terms of amenities, in terms of connections with the right, i would say, requests of the communities, then you are missing something. >> how have rising interest rates affected your business >> of course, it's the shock, 500 basis points within a year is a shock for everybody but i think the bigger shock is beyond that. it's more the structural changes of the industry. right now, everybody is really focused on the cycle, and we are a cyclical industry by essence so of course it's important and it's going to have an impact on the values at the end of june, at the end of december, and maybe first half year of '24 i think that it's probably the submerged part of the iceberg. the big changes happening are more structural, more fundamental, and we shouldn't excuse it as being an excuse to

tackle the real changes. >> so what are those real structural changes >> i would like wrap it up as real estate should be a solution, not another problem for the planet, for the communities, for everybody, you know in our industry, we used to just build something and hope that they will come, you know, we have said that many times. and now i don't think it's the right way to do real estate anymore. we have to really make a diagnosis of what the communities need, and then build something which is in line with that and most of the time now, it's more mixed use than just a single office, tower, building that used to be the darling of the industry, which is not anymore. that it's not -- it has not happened over the last weeks it has happened over the last years. and even before the pandemic, we still have those trends. >> what about affordable housing. we need that, too. >> definitely. and that's why very early on the

multi-family residential, here in the u.s., it's the only industry, the only class of asset where we see a real need of everybody that's why we think that these good risk/return profile that public housing provides to us is a good, i would say, addition to our portfolio. and we were probably the first to invest in multi-residential seven years ago. and now that's why it's our first asset. >> finally, morgan stanley does a survey every year of corporates, and in their results this month, they found that the number of companies expecting to shrink their in-office space was lower, meaning companies are settling into a hybrid environment. i wonder if you see that kind of stabilization happening with whatever it is, three days a week, four days a week >> we see, roughly speaking, between three and four so you know, depending on the way it's calculated, but you know, you have to compare that to something which didn't used to be five days, in fact because before the pandemic,

people used to travel, people used to use some kind ofplexability. so we are comparing something and very focused on those numbers, and we see that there is a lack between the 3 and the 5, but it's not the case, i think. and i'm not sure it's the way that we should look at that. it's more, you know, when you look around, if you see people working, getting to a restaurant, you know, like, using the live, play, work triangle that we like very much in real estate, if you see that, then things are happening. in new york, for example, you see that new york is backed. and that's why it's good for residential. and i like that very much, because most of my portfolio here is residential. >> so your call is, next year, the commercial real estate market comes back? >> cyclical, cyclically, yes, i think that the cycle is probably going to last in the next six to nine months. but again, simultaneously, we have to be very careful to be

prepared and to have right properties and the right products to attract people back to the office, to the residential, or to the kind of -- any kind of properties that they would like to make their life happy and fun >> natalie, thank you very much. it's good to talk to you and good to see you. natalie palladitcheff of ivanhoe cambridge. when we come back, looking good that's nvidia ceo giving intel a vote of confidence on some of its test chips we'll look at pat gelsinger's strategy and what that might mean for the pecking order in ai, when we're back in two

intel is a mover in a tough take today on news the company is guiding revenue to the top half of its range for q2 our deirdre bosa is watching that on today's "tech check ." >> there is news that could prove more significant and has flown under the radar. earlier this week in taiwan nvidia ceo jensen huang said their test chips, quote, look good, and that is noteworthy it is a small but significant signal to markets that pat gelsinger's grand ambitions may be working and the fact it comes from huang could do no wrong in investor's eyes, that is key here, too. it's a comment likely to please

investors and lawmakers alike. intel is, of course, an american company. it could bring advanced chip making back home seen as a national security issue and counter the current dominance in samsung. now, to be clear, all we got from nvidia and huang was a small vote in confidence "the journal" reported they explored intel as a manufacturer but then backed off. nvidia, though, is america's most valuable semicompany. we were talking about it day after day, the latest entry in the club its business may ultimately matter more and it may pave the way for other companies that are also in need of chip supply chain diversification bringing that manufacturing back to america which intel wants to do. also helping shares today, carl mentioned this, comments from the cfo saying he expects revenue to come in at the higher end of their outlook and talked up ai on the product and foundry sides. intel is the top performer on

the dow up 1.3%. gelsinger has had a very tough slog trying to turn around that once mighty company. this partnership would be significant, that vote of confidence is maybe the best sign so far that gelsinger has received on those plans. >> so do intel and nvidia compete directly what is the landscape? >> pat gelsinger wants to create a foundry business nvidia designs chips used by many, many companies, big tech intel wants to manufacture the chips, and it's basically creating this business from nothing, so it is a very difficult thing to do especially given all the product delays and challenges that gelsinger has already had. they would work with nvidia to make those chips but, yes, there's other areas where they could compete and that's always been a question for this

foundry, apple, google, meta going to go to apple when it competes with other chips. >> the story was intel was giving up shares to companies like nvidia and amd on the competition. deirdre, thank you deirdre bosa up next, bud light giving wall street a buzz more details and new data after the break. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking. is it possible? with comcast business...it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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let's get a look at what is buzzing this morning it's the backlash continuing against budweiser. some new data showing a 30% decline in volumes in the week since the brand rolled out a marketing campaign with a transgender influencer investors have taken notice. competitors molson coors with bud on pace for their worst month since the start of the pandemic also watching target facing similar fallout from its new pride-themed clothing line the street has just reported earnings but analysts we spoke to say they'll be watching for commentary on the company's q2 earnings shares are down around 15% in

the last month and have underperformed this new phenomenon certainly having an impact on wall street. >> we have upgrades of both sam and constellation. you talked about this with john donohoe of nike in terms of what issues ceos need to step in and comment on clearly it involves everyone and kind of the center is their core consumer which in nike's case is a various type of consumer >> it's knowing your customer and for nike, and we were talking about the colin kaepernick app episode be a teaching lesson there, they felt very confident to come out with kaepernick because they see their consumer as younger, as more social justice forward, urban, and were not worried about losing that core consumer though they appeared to appeal to a much broader argument but did not have an impact on them the communication sometimes the problem here is in the response to how you deal with these

problems from bud light and from target awaiting comment from both >> those are some serious share losses we'll see how that develops. meantime, headlines regarding the debt ceiling this time house democratic l leader jeffries after house leader mcconnell said he would support it adding to the now consensus view this will pass tonight. but as kayla tausche said, 8:30 or so the vote time. and you can't take anything to the bank until the votes are actually cast. >> the 72 hours are up in the 7:00 hour. market is squarely in the red as investors weigh the next fed move, the market is pricing in a 66% chance of a rate hike in june, 44% chance of no move and we've seen odds of july creep up as well. the latest data points to the jobs opening data that came in at the top of the 10:00 hour, hotter than expected that was a surprise, though. it's not clear cut because there are weaker data points like

chicago fed. jobs will be even more important now, the monthly jobs report, on friday >> yeah, and we'll hear from rick reiter at black rock arguing the street is already coming to terms with rate cuts this year -- >> not happening >> -- a little unlikely. we'll get claims in adp tomorrow as we work our way to jobs friday back to post 9 and the judge carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour, the state of stocks. may is coming to a close we debate what likely lies ahead for your money with the investment committee joining me for the hour today joe terranova, jenny harrington, jason snipe, anastasia amoroso and let's check the markets as we get going here. it hasn't been a pretty picture all day. the dow is down about 260, s&p is under some pressure, nasdaq very interesting to watch, too there's the ten-year note yield 3.66 is where we see that at this moment just past noon in the east