bit, this is -- it's a heck of a rise ahead of getting some numbers reported you it's interesting, people tend to say this is a stock that's been overhyped. look at where it was three years ago. >> all right, we're going to be watching that one closely. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast." a monumental may for tech. massive moves in nvidia and semis, but the good vibes across amazon, netflix, and more. what happens to the other once hot areas like energy and staples? plus, split decision while u.s. and chinese government officials are talking about decoupling, a host of u.s. businesses are trying to strengthen bonds with beijing. and later, carvana's back from the brink turn around salesforce's big run, and a bold call from wells fargo, saying bank stocks are cheap. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq

market site. and we start off with the a.i.-led tech boom on wall street what else? chip stocks continuing to rip higher, with nvidia topping the trillion dollar value mark for the first time broa broadcom up 18% in just the last three sessions megacap tech getting a boost apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon and meta have added a combined $775 billion in market cap just this month. but a rising tide hasn't lifted all boats. while the tech sector is up 10% on may, on base for its fifth straight month of gains, crude oil and energy stocks are down 9% defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples dropping. so, what does this say that the great tech rally is coming at the expense of certain stocks? where are we in this market, tim? >> we've seen it before. we've seen it during periods we've questioned growth and worried about the macro and we've seen megatech outperform

we can take it back to 2018, 2016, dan's pointed this out, way back when we were younger men and women here, and i think if you -- but i will continue to emphasize what i think i've been saying on -- as long as qs and semis continue to go higher, the market is going to kwogo higher. that may not be healthy, but it is what it is. and what happens is, you first hit your relative outperformance to the s&p or relative, you know, resistance, which the semis went through we talked about that last week and then you hit all-time. semis right now, if you look at the smh, i think the all-time high was 160, so, that's about 8% away. if you look at qs, we haven't hit a relative high, about 3% high i think they're going through it the all-time highs, it's around 400. microsoft was the first 20to do it, apple, amazon, google a little better than they are.

there are places, if you are following that playbook, that's what's going on. the rotation you talked about has been extraordinary, as well. safety of staples, safety of health care, which makes sense in the market where you have this kind of narrowing of bred and worried about the macro, i think you're going to get that trade again, but i think these go lower xlp has another 5% to 10% lower. >> you got here for the death rattle, i'm just saying this >> can i ask you one quick question -- >> sure. it's your show >> that's true >> but you are polite. >> would you have said that two sessions ago >> no, because this is a blowoff top. broadcom, whatever the hell it's called, it sold off 12%. look at that it's an epic, epic blowoff top this is the third day since inviin vid nvidia guided up -- consensus $7 billion in revenue, they guided to 11, so, a $4 billion beat, okay, and raise,

essentially, if you think about this, caused a half a trillion dollar rally in a handful of stocks that are all the only ways that you can play this. there are other ways you can play this. i think you can buy cc3.ai, a $5 billion market cap company that was up 33% today so, there's goofy stuff going on here, if you are not paying attention, and alarm bells are not going off in your kind of risk sensors here, this is for long people. i'm caught a little short some of these, i'm not naked short these. i buy puts, i said this on thursday that's good money after bad. so, i'm making, like, defined risk that's against a bubble. and trying to do that is a really hard way to consistently make money, but i'm trapped here a little bit, so, i'm doing this but i'm just going to -- trying to highlight the fact that a $4 billion raise to guidance sparked this sort of rally, it seems fairly unnatural here, so i, would say, it's not a consistent way to make money guying things like this,

especially -- look at what's going on in small caps, in energy, in staples, in financials, i could keep going here, people i could go to resources. they are saying that things are slowing and the market is not reflective of what's going on in the economy here or possibly globally >> maybe those things -- they don't -- >> they will be, mel i can take it to the bank, they will all -- >> maybe the economy is slowing, maybe there is a global slowdown, but maybe this is the area that will have this spend, karen. maybe this is -- maybe this spend, this cap-x on a.i., because everybody is forced to do this, will spur the next round for the tech sector. what do you think? >> yeah, i think so. not shockingly, i don't fully agree with dan. i think the analysis sounds really great, that $4 billion has sparked a half a trillion dollar rally, it's not -- i don't think the right way to look at it it's one quarter of $4 billion beat on their way to, you know, as jensen huang talked about, it

needs to change over the next -- i don't know how many years. that's a very different calculus yeah, there's a lot of hype in the stocks, for sure it's reminiscent of, you know, a 3d printing bubble or some other bubbles, but in terms of the a.i. bubble, i think that -- it will become a bubble, i don't think it is yet. i think there's more to go i feel like we're early-ish on, and, i mean, you know, just -- if you look at what they announced -- not even their earnings, their new super computing ability -- that's the cloud on steroids at the beginning. and so, i -- you know, could it trade down 30, 40 points, up 30, 40 points, yes, it could but i think there's a lot more runway than just what happened in the last three months unwinding. i don't believe that's the end of the story >> here's what our friend over at bank of america merrill luynh

put out this morning this is a new bull case for stocks guy. do you buy that thinking >> well, i mean, that's been the thinking, you know, she's -- it looks like -- i'm not saying she's come to consensus, but a lot of people in that camp it is fascinating argument i would -- my -- what i would push back and say, these stocks have been rewarded for it, but i would answer the question you asked dan, i would have said that two weeks ago, 25%, 30% ago, so, that's wrong. in terms of just the way the stocks traded, we talk about panics to the downside all the time and clearly that happens, but what you saw specifically in broadcom today, that stock traded $921 effectively on the open to dan's earlier point, it gave back more than $100 traded five times normal volume. that's not a natural move. i mean, something weird is going on and again, nvidia, we said it for a long time, it's an

extraordinarily important company, but one has to ask, are they already being rewarded for all the things we're talking about? i would submit yes, but again, i would have said that $150 ago, mel. >> yeah, i'm -- bloomberg quoted the ceo of nvidia saying it's too much, i know it's too much, regarding the, you know, acree shun in the market cap, karen. as a value investor, it almost surprises me that you still have nvidia, but at what point do you say, you know what, it is too much, and i have to start to increase the rate at which i'm pairing my position? >> well, okay, is that for sure what he was referring to, the too much, related to the stock or too much, now we're offering you this other product that's extraordinarily expensive to use and everyone is going to want to use it so, you know, you probably are right about that, but i just feel like -- i can't trade around this, and i don't think it's over.

so, that's -- so that leaves me with, holding it, knowing that it could be extremely volatile, i can't make it a giant part of my portfolio, but i really do think we are in the dawn of another era. how much of this is reflected in the dawn i don't think we're going to look back when this is all said and done and say, today, you know, whatever, may 31st, 2023, it was fully reflected in the stock. i don't think that's the case. >> i just take a more pragmatic view on the market i look at semis that outperform the s&p by 30% even before we knew nvidia, you know, was going to make these types of announcements, and i'm talking about that cpi low in october through the end of, really the end of march and some of that was also a function of what happened with svb. there have been different catalysts along the way. and they always include a market that is concerned a little bit about growth and i know we argue, you know, we get concerned about these multiples on a microsoft or apple, but microsoft is up 21%

since earnings microsoft on some level started some of this whole hysteria around a.i. with their chatgpt, but i mean, apple right now is nearing ab ing an all-time high is this an a.i. trade? it's not they may say something but i take a more simplistic view, that semis were doing this job and a significant way, before we even started pricing a lot of this in >> so, we're having a show here today, it's the last day or second to last day of may of 2023, and -- >> penultimate >> and we're going to have a conversation that reminiscent of 2000, a conversation about the banks that is reminiscent of march, april 2008 and i heard some things that are really reminding me of that the last stock to tick a trillion dollars was tesla in november of 2021 and really, we could have said a lot of the same things we're saying about a.i., about

autonomous and the stock lost 75% of its market value until january of this year so, all of this stuff can happen the conversations we're having about this technology, you know, next week, apple is having their worldwide developers forum they have been using a thing called siri that is based on artificial intelligence and machine learning for ten freaking years, okay so, these are investments they've been making, there's a product that a lot so of people think sucks and if you're saying me this h-100 chip that jensen huang is going to make it finally good, well, then i'm taking the over on that, because we've been using it for ten years and it stinks, okay? they've been buying the most advanced chips for ten years, they've been developing the most advanced chips for years using their own r and d budgets to do this google has been doing this, amazon has been doing this, tesla's been doing this -- >> meta has been doing it. and in fact, meta is probably as better positioned as any of

these companies, especially when you add in their reels and some of the things -- >> do you remember november of 2021 when what's his name, zuckerberg, like, renamed the company the metaverse and this was going to be the next thing and it was almost a trillion dollar market cap company -- >> he's loving this. because we're not talking about the metaverse. >> how about it? go buy your innvidia right now if this is a one or two-quarter phenomenal, because every small crappy company has to do this and then they realize that they overspent and the opportunity to commercialize it is not here, and then they pull back, like the metaverse spending or pull back like web three or pull back like crypto, okay, we've seen all of this in the last five years. >> i do see a scenario -- >> it's different. tell me why it's different >> no, i was going to acknowledge that there might be a see their yore here where companies are going to front load some of their spend on this and so the comps will get more difficult a year out >> yeah. >> but that's a year out >> sure.

>> market discounts the future >> okay. >> i would like to bring it back to the market, which, to me, we're looking it in phases and in sequence of where we thought the market was fog going in thec of very difficult macro, whether it's recession, the fed's 500 basis points, maybe another 25, the market's pricing in higher r rates. none of this is good for equities i'm looking at the market that i'm being given here and i'm telling you, triple qs are going higher, if that's going higher, s&p is going to hit 3450 i think there are a lot of risks that are underappreciated. you look at how short professional xhooun till is on s&ps, you have record shots on s&ps, you have some concern on sentiment, you certainly have people that are more in cash, i think in the professional community than the retail community. that, to me, is the kind of stuff that when people are expecting this headwind, takes the markets higher it's not going higher forever. i'm just saying, i see the market that's in front of me and i see the qs and semis are

outperforming and until they stop, the entire market gets taken higher >> s&p short number is -- what did we hear? we heard tepper, steve cohen, all in the last two weeks talk about, they're all-in on the a.i. trade and they are probably short up the wazoo -- >> i'm talking about ctas, who are directional. >> but it's momentum >> well, that's -- >> so, they're long all this crap and they're short -- >> and the momentum is to the upside -- >> momentum to the s&p is not to the upside it's been trading -- >> i'm -- i'm telling you that the market will go higher if semis and qs go higher and the technicals are telling me they're going higher >> karen, i want to ask you a question you are bullish nvidia, bullish this spend cycle, so, does this make you bullish the s&p >> yeah. >> it does >> well, i mean, just mathematically, it kind of has to, if the whole tech sector trades up, that pulls the s&p.

but i think it's at the expense of a lot of other industries, and so -- does that -- i don't know how to answer that then mathematically, yes, but are there things i own that are not going to be particularly well received, yes. >> yeah. >> so, you know, a name like united rental, which i think the cheap, i love the story, like the team, all of that -- i could see that not really trading particularly well. so, i'm going -- so, that's not a great black or white answer to your question, but i think there's sort of a gray technically, yes >> i accept gray >> but it's not a monolith >> right guy, for the next six months, would you rather be on the momentum of the a.i. trade or search for value in the sectors that are suffering now because of -- >> yeah, the latter, i think so -- >> okay. >> i would say, listen, tim's been spot on with this, i'm not going to argue with him. but i got to believe we're getting a little long in the tooth here, i would -- listen,

the things that have failed in the wake of this, health care has been under pressure, obviously energy, retailers, i mean, target traded down to a six or seven-month low, walmart hasn't traded particularly well. so, those stocks are sort of being thrown out and everybody's flocking into these names, which, again, i understand the reasons why, if there's opportunity, money will find opportunity. my concern is, there's a euphoria going around that's unsustainable and the stocks that are being sold are the ones you want to try to get back into i don't think the energy trade is over. i think popular belief sort of belies that, if we look at what's going on, the underlying commodity, but i'll say this, this is an opec meeting comes up, and i think they're going to turn the screws in a major way we'll see what happens >> yeah, i want to make one last point. all those names, all those situations we talked about, just as they overshot to the upside, they have the tendency, they overshot to the downside that is the risk you are buying up here and make a really catastrophic mistake. >> well, the market's next big

hurdle may be the may jobs report let's bring in peter bookbar, chief investment officer before we get to that, peter, i want to bring into this conversation we're having, very heated one, on the desk, when you look at this market, is this trying to tell you something, this huge boom in a.i., at the expense of industrials, staples, materials, et cetera >> well, two things. if you look at, okay, let's isolate the eight companies, 492, and throw in the 2,000 and the small cap russell, well, those 2,500-ish companies are customers of those eight so, you can't have the eight going up like this while their customer base are experiencing their own weakness and with respect to extrapolating the a.i. craze and to think this is going to be great for the broader economy immediately and this is the beginning of a takeoff in the stock market, well, the apple iphone was initiated in 2007 that wasn't the best buy signal

for the broader market and it certainly was no tell on the broader economy. >> okay. let's talk about the jobs report now. what are you expecting, and is this going to give the fed any reason to pause here >> so, the estimates right now are under 200,000, and if the case, it would be the second month in a row below 200,000 the last time we saw that p pre-covid was 2019 i thought noteworthy was in today's consumer confidence number, where we saw weakness in the employment figures in fact, those expecting more jobs over the coming six months fell to the lowest level in seven years. so, i do think there's risk to the downside, but again, the fed wants to see a weaker labor market i think the fed is pausing, regardless of what friday's number is, and friday's number is backward looking anyway so, any central banker that is going to base their decision on friday's number is really bad rear view mirror-type analysis

>> peter, it's tim so, speaking of rear view, let's look back at the banking crisis, i agree with you, and we're probably, the impact of svb and the regional bank run is 100 basis points where do you think the fed is in terms of their ability to really forecast this? and i think i know the answer, because there are many different forces that i do think are negative for the economy, i think ultimately are negative for stocks but right now, the fed, if anything, has been talking rates higher they've been talking up fed fund futures. there's no sense, you know, we had 120 basis points of cuts before the year end, if you asked us three months ago, now you're down about 15 basis points so, where do you think we are in the fed's thinking >> i think humility is very important here since svb collapsed, since, we've had 50 basis points of rate hikes and based on some

estimates, the credit crunch/contraction is the equivalent of an additional 50, so you've had 100 basis points of rate hikes since svb collapsed. just humility should tell you that the fed should take a pause. and i'm not saying that they stop raising interest rates, i'm not saying they need to back off on this inflation fight, but wouldn't it be prudent to take a step back, because to your point, tim, we don't really know how this is going to play out over the next three to six months, and if you don't really know, why would you then go raise interest rates shouldn't you raise or make a policy decision like that based on more confidence than looking at, okay, what's happened in the data today, which is reflecting what's already happened in the economy? >> peter, great to get your thoughts, thank you. >> thanks, melissa >> peter r bookbar. peter had an interesting note out about the other sort of side effects of this debt deal, liquidity coming out of the

system, which could mean tighter conditions people who have student debt, which seems like almost everybody out there, will start having to pay that debt a month sooner, and jpmorgan's economist came out and said that is going to reduce consumer spending, because the average monthly bill is around $393 a month i mean, that sort of meaningful, karen, i'm wondering how you sort of put this together here for the economy. >> yeah, i think, i mean, we've already seen pressure on sort of the lower end discretionary dollars, and so, you got to think the overlap between lower end discretionary and student debt is pretty high, so, i think it will probably be -- how could it not be exacerbated, which i think is your point. >> yeah. i mean, guy, maybe that goes to your -- what -- did you call -- >> ugly -- >> i was going to ask guy if he needed a tissue. i thought i -- >> i know, guy is -- >> i actually -- i actually have a tissue right here. >> single tissue let's hope there's a box there, too.

well, somewhere. >> maybe that goes to your target chart, guy. >> yeah, and the retailers -- exactly. target is six, seven-month low the consumer will spend money until the market gives them a reason not to, but these things are happening very fast, and i think we're blinded by the euphoria around a very specific area, it's obviously driving the broader market, but below the surface, there are things to be concerned about, and oh, by the way, you know, two tens, that yield spread that went down to below 50 basis points, is back up to close to 80 basis points, and again, people say it's not a big deal, it's a big deal, so -- the warning signs are there. again, the market flow of funds is choosing not to acknowledge it coming up, streaming surge netflix heading up 52-week highs. investors keep bingeing. is this name the crown for your portfolio? could stranger things happen and caravana shares driving

higher is there enough gas in the tank to keep going? we'll debate that when "fast money" returns

welcome back to "fast money. investors bingeing on shares of netflix today. the stock hitting its highest levels since february 2022, after analysts at bernstein touted the advantages of paid sharing. the streaming giant is now up 33% this year. so, this gets to, i guess, you know, paying instead of giving out that password for free, in your household, tim? >> the call by the street, and i think it's the right one, is that the percentage of the people that were sharing, or borrowing, or stealing, or whatever you want to attach to this, are going to pay for some plan and what that means for netflix, this is all coming at a time when their competition isn't really going through thinking like this, don't have -- it's easy to say this now, it wasn't at the time when we thought that netflix was saturated and they were growing their sub -- these are catalysts to the stock they're not things being down out of weakness. the competitors are pulling content, reeling in their budgets, figuring out how to tidy up the bottom line, because

the top line's not enough. so, that's why netflix continues to go higher it's up 28% from early may, so, again, part of the megacap tech complex that has its own fundamentals that makes some sense here >> it's sort of funny to think that the knock on netflix was the content spend and overspending and levering up the balance sheet to do that, though interest rates were at 0% during that whole time and here we have competitors and they realize they need to spend on content, but they can't afford to do that right now, so, they aren't so, there's really wounded competitors out there, dan, in terms of the netflix story >> yeah, the consensus for 2024, you know, has, i don't know, like, 29% earnings growth, so it's trading at 27 times next year's expected earnings growth. that's about as cheap as it gets for netflix, i'll mention this, where the stock's trading right now, it's really right back at that level where it was trading when it broke out in 2020 during the pandemic when imbait very clear they were going to be the

earliest pandemic winner and it's important to remember, they are expected to earn close to $2 more this year, so, that was the kind of multiple compression that we've seen. it's going to be a theme here for months, this is a stock that was down 75% after it blew out to the upside. that sort of thing so, to me, i don't find it really come petting here unless you want to try to really drill down and glean what this password sharing what the ad supporting stuff, the competitive issues mean for the stock. it's at the midpoint of the range, and it trades at a reasonable multiple if you believe in that 2024, you know, consensus. >> karen, where are you on netflix? >> i'm with my dog, sorry about that where am i i'm long i can't argue that it's cheap. but i think tim sort of touched on it. when you look at the competitive landscape, you look at netflix's balance sheet, what kind of shape it's in, versus who are the big competitors, disney, they have a balance sheet problem, right, we know that paramount balance sheet problem,

discovery, balance sheet problem, so, they're really in a pretty good position right now, so, is it a little expensive yes. it is. but i think if you -- i think in the shakeout of the streaming story isn't over yet, and i think netflix will emerge stronger for where they are right now, so i'm hanging onto it >> all right a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what coming up next. carvana on cruise control. shares reaching their highest level in months. but can the stock's u-turn continue. plus, beijing business elon musk, jamie dimon, and other ceos landing in china. even as tensions with the u.s. ramp up. the impact on your money ahead you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪ ♪ every single day, businesses everywhere are asking the exact same question: is it possible?

well...with comcast business...it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? so we can better protect our customer data? aww-yeah. absolutely. what else you got? can we use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? before they even exist? we can help with that. - hmm. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. even out here. you, sir. something on your mind? is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? with wifi analytics? easy. order for nina! can i teleport our guests to their rooms? technically, no. or power thousands of mobile check-ins while thousands of other guests check out? now that we can do. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. how can you sleep on such a firm setting? gab, mine is almost the same as yours. almost... just another word for not as good as mine. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed.

plus, free home delivery when you add an adjustable base. only at sleep number. back when i had a working circulatory system, you had to give your right arm to find great talent. but with upwork, there's highly skilled talent from all over the globe. right at your fingertips. ♪ this is how we work now ♪

welcome back to "fast money. shares of carvana getting a huge boost today, climbing nearly 17% for its highest close since february the stock has nearly doubled this month and is up more than 280% from all-time lows hit in december real head scratcher here karen, are the bonds trading any better >> the bonds are trading better. i think they have a bond yield that expires tonight for the closest in bonds, but if you look at some of it, they're -- i don't know, five or six years out, that's trading at 18% yield, that paper, which is telling you the bond market is pretty concerned about this as an ongoing concern and you might think, well, okay, if the stock goes up, they can issue more shares, but the equity -- the market cap is still pretty low at $2.5 billion, it is worth noting that the short interest is absolutely

enormous, and so it could spike for sure, but -- and they've been trying to lever everything up that isn't nailed down, so, they've been doing a good job of staffing alive if you stay alive long enough, things could turn, but i wouldn't be a buyer. >> live to another day, right? the short interest showing up i 57% of shares outstanding, tim >> yeah, and it's come in a lot, but if you look at where the short interest was at its peak on the 52-week, it was around 29%. i'm seeing it 24%. well north of 50%, as percentage of the outstanding float that has a lot to do with what's going on karen, who is our resident bond girl, by the way, because she's the unthat usually talks about it, so, there's morethan doubl en entrendre there, you've seen a lot of great move here, but the equity, there's a limit, so, you're following the credit markets on this story and that's been the right thing to do. coming up, the china trade the latest on rising tensions as

top business leaders visit the country and how it's impacting your money, next. plus, options traders are betting big ahead of the salesforce how they are playing this name when "fast money" returns. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing virtually flat as investors await the passage of a tentative debt deal. the dow down for the sixth time in the last 76 sessions. the s&p up less than a tenth of a point. the nasdaq managing to eek out a gain of .3%. and a couple afterhours movers box jumping after beating on the top and bot ltom line. meantime, elon musk expected to make his first trip to china in three years this week he's reportedly meeting with the country's foreign minister to discuss expansion plans. and not the onto u.s. exec making the trip. jamie dimon speaking at the bank conference, while morgan stanley is holding a china-focused event

in hong kong this week calls for decoupling the two countries grow the our next guest says it's too soon to do that. too early in what sense? >> well, i think the too early is about giving up on the chinese recovery you know, traders had it wrong from the beginning on this, there is a lot of excitement back when the covid zero band aid was pulled off in november and december, and it was this idea, well, the economy is reopening. yes, the economy is reopening, but it wasn't about to reactivate so, december and january and february, these were months that were never going to show recovery people were getting sick h hundreds of millions of people got sick the covid-zero structures were being broken down. so, the idea was always, look, q-1 is going to be rough as we start to getting march, april, we're going to start seeing the potential for a real economic recovery. we just got our may data in, our may data are much better than

anything that we've been seeing, what the government's reporting for april. so, we're seeing some of the green chult chutes of this reco, and it's something worth watching >> there's also the misconception that it would be the consumer driving the recovery and china's never been a consumer-led economy, it's been a manufacturing-led economy, leland, so, that's part of, you know, sort of the idea that it should have been a faster bounce-back, but i do want to talk about the ceos in china, and whether or not that relationship can be repaired is it possible to have the two capitals, you know, have tensions, but at the same time have the u.s. ceos want to do business in why that. >> it's possible but it's getting tougher and tougher. i mean, the reason that jamie is over there, the reason that elon is over there, they see an opening right now during what china's announced is the year of welcoming foreign investment in china, 2023. supposed to be a big year for that the same time, china's launched its large crackdowns of foreign

businesses, you know, they're regulating data flows outside the country. they are not being very hospitable to foreign businesses so, there's this natural tension that as the u.s./china relationship deteriorates, you know, what do we do, how much do we push back, what signals do we send and right now, it's a very confusing situation for ceos they're trying to do all they can to try to patch up the, you know, the sinking ship, but you know, it's tough right now >> leland, so, you pointed out that you -- in your note that you think the party's crack down on foreign firms in risk level rising and you pointed out you think the economic risks are the opposite you agree with that. in fact, i think about a world that china growth in the mid 5% and 5.6, 5.7 is the upside compared to ten years ago, this would have been a disaster this is very bullish right now and i think that's bullish but how about china's crackdown on their own firms that is the biggest part of this i look at whether it's the kweb,

the fxi, it's china's treatment of their own companies and those macro risks that are a lot more important than the economy >> i agree these are what people are looking at does the government want to do business is the government looking for growth is the government looking to unsent vise innovation in this economy? and you look at what's happened for years now, you look across the economy and you see a lot of worrying signs that -- what xi jinping's economy is doing is battening down the hatches maybe not for conflict, but economic conflict, for sure. there's a lot of muxed edmixed s the rule in 2023 should be, we are going to see a better bounce-back. it's too early right now numbers can still beat estimates for the gdp print, but also, it is part -- the longer backdrop here is a structural slowdown, so -- when you are investing in

china right now, you have to think, do i catch the cyclical bounce-back in 2023, do i acknowledge the long-term structural slowdown that's going to be the norm going forward how do i evaluate political risk how do i evaluate this real geopolitical risk that's ramping up it's a lot harder to do business in china right now >> leland, thank you for your time >> thank you for having me >> i'm go straight to you, since you are known as the ambassador, you know, amongst the "fast money" family. how do you assess all of those things that leland was talking about? the bounce-back that people aren't really factoring in right now? >> i think american ceos have been able to do business in china for a long time without the environment that we have today. but i think american ceos in nonstrategic sectors are going to continue to be a place where china wants those companies, because china is more concerned about their own consumer and they are more concerned about social control but i -- i think we're all

acknowledges that that environment has changed. i still think that what they're doing to their own companies is a bigger issue and the minute we get more all clear, like at least some of the signs we're siege and alibaba, let 's see some of the listing standards not tighten, but loosen up, that, to me, is more important, but i think the macro and the economy in economy that is something that you want to invest in at this point, relative to where it's been over the last three years, which has been a disaster. >> dan >> yeah, i mean, look at the way the shanghai composite acts, look at the way the fxi. it acts like something else is going on it feels like a growth scare you talked about some of those periods we had in '15 and '16 when china really looked like it was slowing, and let's not forget, 4.5% gdp in q-1, if we really don't get going, it might not be the engine of growth that a lot of, i think, let's say markets in the west are pricing right now, and i think that has been built into the 2023 story

at least in the stock market here and it doesn't seem to be materializing. coming up, salesforce on deck to report earnings tomorrow do options traders have their head in the clouds on this name? we'll head to the pits for the next. and one top analyst says everything but the kitchen sink was priced in. we'll debate that call ahead more "fast money" in two identical twins bethany and stephanie both struggled with cpap for their sleep apnea. but stephanie got inspire, an implanted device that works inside the body. there's no reason to keep struggling. inspire. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com. car designers can shape a piece of clay learn more and view important safety information into a piece of art... so why don't they? at nissan, things are different. they design cars that look like swords... (engine accelerates) gladiators... the future... ♪ or... wow. nissan knows what thrill looks like.

because they design it into every car they make.

this is the all new, all electric lucid air. a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is... spacious. as smart... as it is beautiful. introducing the lucid air. experience the best. ♪

welcome back to "fast money. salesforce hitting an all-time high ahead of tomorrow's earnings report. mike khouw's got the options action mike >> salesforce traded more than three times the average daily options volume today right now, the options market imflying a move of 9%. calls were outpacing puts and the busiest of those were the 240 strike calls that expire at the end of this week we saw 4,200 of those trading for $3.33. buyers are betting that move will be to the upside. >> guy, what are you thinking about crm? >> valuation's probably cheap historically, but still trades like one turn from a market multiple unabaited run since december you think take profits into this

number not add into a long position >> mike, thank you mike khouw for more options action, tune into the full show, that's friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, why one top analyst is doing this. when it comes to the banking seconder to. you won't believe your eyes. the details and much more when "fast money" returns you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.

dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones

we moved out of the city so our little sophie lecould appreciate nature.t. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.

of that. the deposit flewe is outstanding for them i like them. i'm staying long >> he likes the biggest banks, jpmorgan and cit i are his picks. >> i've been long them both for a long time. and you can pick your spots on

the banks, and you can pick whatever charts you want you can look at banks year over year, jpmorgan, and, you know, it's effectively flat to the s&p on the one-year, so, there have been periods where banks have had this extreme duress. we haven't got into a credit world. i'll just tell you, that's an ugly place for banks but you have an environment here, where there's been trades within here, and the regional banks have clearly priced in recession, have clearly priced in the dynamics that -- a credit dynamic. the problem is, and some of the most sophisticated investors in banks, and these guys tell me this, you cannot analyze a bank run that will be triggered with the world of pressing buttons and post-market activity that's the problem here, because that's still hanging out >> as long as the fed speak is as hawkish has it has been, we've seen the two-year come back up, and we heard about relief of these held to maturities that a lot of these regional banks have, and granted, yes, there is

tremendous efforts to kind of suggest those losses will be backstopped and that sort of thing, the cost of further fdic insurance comes at the feet of the large banks, and, you know, bank america, kcit i, wells fargo, they do not act well. so, karen's point about jpmorgan, everything comes up roses, everything else looks like it sucks for the rest of the banks out there, and the regionals are waiting for another shoe to drop, in my opinion, if rates go higher. >> another shoe, guy, do you think? >> feels that way. i mean, bkx has been cut in half since january of '22 it's bounced probably 10% since the may lows, but it's not a really meaningful bounce and the kre at one point today was pretty significantly lower, bounced late in the day. the banks are telling a much different story than the broader market and i think there is another shoe especially with the way the bond markets continue to trade. the move index continues to go

higher, ai think something else is going to happen relatively soon >> if there's another shoe to drop, we saw a flight to the biggest banks, so, they benefitted as the biggest and the strongest. but is that over so, the next shoe to drop is just bad for the sector overall? >> well, if there is another shoe to drop, then you're going to see the same thing. i think you're going to see a flight of more depolz sits to the big banks again, right one of the things that has helped the kre is that some of these banks have come out and say, we actually gained deposits in the last few months, and that's been good but one thing that the kre stocks own that the big banks don't is a bigger percentage of commercial real estate and we have to see that clear up a little bit that's sort of the -- a big obstacle in the short-term >> you know, you look at some of the exposure these banks have, karen's right to bring that up i look at jpmorgan on the charts

and i say, that's a bank that's been struggling to get through 145 for a long time. i think if it gets through there, that's your key technical place. but right now, you know, the environment we're in, the markets have had a great run and i think you're going to have to test that again >> all right, up next, final trades lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪

final trade time guy? >> palantir might be the real winner of this a.i. battle, mel. >> get some chicken soup, guy, geez karen? >> yeah, you know, i'm going to follow mike, blind leading the blind, but i do like jpmorgan. i'm a buyer. >> tim seymour >> netflix, we talked about it i think the thesis is these changes that they brought about, i think they can do out of strength, not out of weakness. where it is on the charts, 400 is a key level to get through and we have to watch that. >> dan >> really want to give me this much time here >> kind of risky, 20 seconds

>> interesting, mel, that we -- actually like the tlt here i think longer term yields can come in, the two-year can stay bid here and that's the way this plays out. >> you're not an angry guy in real life. you are perfectly -- >> markets are emotional, people thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playin field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnb or tweet me @jimcramer. >> you stray, you lose that's the defining feature. if you stray from a small portion of the tech