it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. heading for $1 trillion. shares of nvidia soaring after the record-breaking quarter and what could be the biggest market cap gain of all time. not close enough progress on the debt ceiling talks and we are one week away from the treasury's x date fitch taking hold on the aaa credit rating. and a stock market overseas disconnect in the largest economy. germany officially enters a technical recession with stocks

at one-year highs. a high stakes meeting in washington today to ease orphan the flames of rising tensions with the u.s. and china. and later, the u.s. set to take action on short selling it is may 25th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's check off the hour with the stock futures. look ahead of the open the s&p and dow jones industrial average and nasdaq showing differences in how they are moving 2% difference with the dow jones industrial average and nasdaq. nasdaq up over 1.5%. dow jones industrial average down .25%. something we continue to watch the nvidia report having a factor on that we will have more on that pop in a moment

we are checking the bond market with the 0-year. 3.5% elevated as we go to the x date we are seeing upside moves with the 2-year note. speaking of bonds, whipsaw action with the 1-month close to 6% it was over 6% earlier this month. more action on the 3-month we are talking about the yield there. we can't chart it for you, but other short-term u.s. t-bills set to expire in the next week yielding above 7%. we are looking at energy with wti with the down side action. wti is $73.50 brent crude is $77.50

a lot of movement in natural gas. it is back above $2. let's get back to the pre-market pop with shares of nvidia at these levels, it could add $185 billion of market cap at the open that is equal to the entire market cap of amd. you are seeing the swing after the report up 24% driving nvidia higher is described as an outstanding report with the earnings at 19% above estimates for the biggest eps beat in five years sales are stellar 10% above estimate and biggest beat in five years nvidia says quarter sales could top $11 billion for the first time ever and for perspective, nvidia has never seen quarterly revenues in excess of $8.3 billion. fuelling this outlook is a.i

the ceo saying we are significantly increasing supply to meet surging demand nvidia pre-market move helping shares of other a.i. chip makers amd is up 9% taiwan semi is up 5% c3 is up as well as palantir and micron we will talk more about this later on in this hour. moving on back to the broader markets. last night, fitch put the united states aaa default rating on negative watch aaa is the highest rating. fitch says this is over the stalemate in the negotiations despite apparent progress with democrats and republicans. coverage from washington this morning with brie jackson and jp

ong is here in singapore and arabile gumede has the early trade in europe. >> reporter: good morning, frank. the race to avoid default is coming down to the fwire representatives from the white house and congress continued for the third day. spending is the major sticking point. house republicans demand significant cuts and the white house has offered to freeze spending levels, but not cut further to protect social programs mccarthy seemed optimistic about the deal, but the markets are not sharing his sentiment. fitch placed the aaa rating from the u.s. on rating watch negative this is not an official downgrade, but the agency could take that action fitch cited the partisan action.

the treasury department said the warning underscores the need for swift bipartisan action by congress janet yellen again warned of an early june deadline to avoid default saying she will offer a more precise state to congress soon frank. >> brie jackson, thank you turning to singapore with red arrows overnight on the heels of the news jp ong, good evening over to you. >> reporter: good evening, frank. a tough day at the office. it goes back to the concerning of the dead ceiling state side when fitch decides to cut the sovereign debt to negative watch, suddenly the prospect of the default is more real for investors and investors here trying to take on some of the concerns which did weigh on markets. we start off in greater china.

stocks with concerns of the significant slowdown in the second largest economy weighing on shenzhen. hang seng falling today which is w weighing on markets. it crossed over to australia and kospi decided to keep rates unchanged and households shrinking again with the lack of confidence in that country there are a couple of bright p spots in the challenging session. in fact, one of the brightest spots was japan. nikkei snapped out of the losing streak there is a lot of confidence with regards to earnings and japanese households are starting to consume. there is confidence over there and the chip related stocks here in asia staking a lot of confidence from the very bullish forecast and impressive earnings report from nvidia from samsung

and also in tokyo. frank. >> jp, thank you a rough session shaping up in europe and it is not just the u.s. credit rating rattling cages there, but breaking news from germany arabile gumede is joining us from london. arabile. >> reporter: frank, you are right. the germany recession story is the interesting one and is the big one to focus on. let's start off there. germany has entered recession with the final gdp data showing the second quarterly decline in a row in the first three months of the year. falling 0.3% in the first quarter. you see the inability for the market to shake off what was yesterday's negative trade and filtering through to today if you look at the dax, it is down .10%. we are up from the lows that we actually had in the market just two hours away from the open we had earlier today.

interesting that the dax is down .20% following that inflation print yesterday. it does seem like the yields are getting bumped up significantly. the uk 10-year gilt is up today. on the sectors here. the story has been around the tech counters with the retail and media are down, but tech is managing to get higher more than 2% gain there. asml and asmi picking up positive numbers with 7%. that really bolstering trade on that front whether that will continue across the day is something we will watch frank. >> arabile gumede, thank you very much. investors feeling anxious over the debt ceiling side. the yield on the one-month bill spiking to 6%.

according to trade web treasuries seeing waith the yields on the 2 and the 10 at the highest level. gold and the yen edging lower and jumping on the fitch news. joining me now is robert teeter and joanna gallegos. >> thanks, frank >> jo, i want to go to you first. we talked about the fitch downgrade of the credit rating we talked about the yield hitting record levels. the possibility of default makes the shorter term pobonds less attractive give us a sense of what strategy w would you advise on bonds? >> i think what we are telling investors to remember is this a

b political situation. we have seen this in 2011 and 2013 and 2017. agreement was reached around the debt ceiling we think this will get resolved. for investors that want to avoid volatility, we recommend the treasury portfolio duration. this doesn't mean going far out on the curve, but matching what you have seen in the market which is moving out on the curve with the 1-year or 2-year or 3-year treasury exposure remember the debt ceiling has been raised 40 times since 1942. some short-term rate spikes reflect those that mature next week you need to sift through >> a lot of people are sifting through it we will get more in a second

robert, all of the volatility and uncertainty and your clients are asking how to protect your portfolios i want to key in on one tip. you say buy quality names. when you do that, it is an opportunity cost what is that opportunity cost? >> the opportunity cost is related to the time horizon. in 2011, when we had resolution to the debt crisis, markets recovered quickly. there was a significant drawdown about 15% around that decline in the debt ceiling in 2011 of the de debate there would be an opportunity cost here by being a bit too cautious it is important to focus on time horizon and separating the time horizons >> the markets declined by 17% in 2011.

what we see from nvidia and mega cap tech, it continues to move higher do you see the same risk for the big dip in the market if the negotiations continue and we get closer and closer to the date without a deal >> that stress is building we are seeing it in parts of the t-bill market with the maturity dates. one of the things that is different this time over 2011 is the dichotomy. you have the stress building in the near term and the x date and the x date might the fall. on the other hand, you have optimism brewing and the economy is resilient and as you referenced, advances in technology is bringing positives to the future. there is a focus day-to-day on the debt ceiling and optimism. >> jo, back to you there is disagreement of the x date goldman sachs came out with research saying it would be june 8th.

a week after the treasury says that the x date would come when it comes to the short end of bonds like the 1-month yield at 6%, what is the real risk the debt ceiling has always been raised and the u.s. has always paid its debts >> there is a market for someone who wants to take the risk and a market for someone who wants to layoff that risk right now that is what is important. you can take action in the markets where you believe there is a risk of repayment from the u.s. government. the logic is there isn't when we looked at the very, very short end of the t-bills, what is priced into the yields popping in the last two days is two days of payment risk when you move it out just another week, it looks more likely in the way it is being priced that the debt will be paid agree there is a way to stay safe in treasuries, whether you

are in the three-month or six-month or moving out more for more comfort and longer term view i agree with what was said previously we need to zoom out a bit from what we are focusing on this month. >> a lot to consider here. robert and joanna, thank you a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. first, more on what could be a record-breaking pre-market pop from nvidia and what it could mean for the biggest rivals. high stakes meeting in washington tonight that could dictate the future of the simmering of the tensions with u.s. and china. and the retail playbook is out today when "worldwe chgerernidexan" tus. stay with us

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." keeping an eye on the hot spots around the world with implications for the world economy and your money china and the u.s. are set to have the first cabinet level meeting in washington. eunice yoon is sdtanding by in beijing with the latest. un eunice >> reporter: the commerce ministry stated its minuistry

will meet with the u.s. representatives during the visit in the u.s. over the next two days the ministry confirmed that minister tao will attend the meeting in detroit and both sides wills discuss the ministry described as issues of common concern. chinese state media today has been quoting experts to say that this means possibly u.s. investment increasing in china and ending tariffs on chinese goods or easing u.s. expert controls s aimed at china's advanced industries. this comes after president biden suggested over the weekend that he saw a thawing very shortly in u.s. and china ties. that, frank, has raised hopes this could be the first step in many to increase the communications between the two sides and stabilize the

relationship >> so interesting. a couple of meetings here, including one with commerce secretary raimondo how much of the conversation will be focused on the banning of the chips and black listing micron that tension over chips? >> reporter: that tension is going to be on the agenda. just based on all of the messaging we are seeing from beijing as well as the u.s this is an issue that would be pertinent to the discussions on commerce and trade the terms of the efforts to try to increase that level of communication, there is an expectation that we would see if things go well with the discussions to further communications in defense as well as the state secretary and defense area is one people are watching closely because defense secretary austin is going to be coming out to asia and the hope from the u.s. side is that they

will be able to secure a conversation on the the sidelines of the ckconference wt the chinese defense minister. >> whinchina is a big holder ofe treasuries eunice yoon, thank you. ahead on "worldwide exchange," betting big on macao. emily tan is live with the latest look and interview. >> reporter: thank you, frank. i'm on the red carpet live on the macao londoner the latest integrated resort opening post covid i sadot wn with rob goldstein. we'll have more when "worldwide exchange" comes back

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welcome back historic moment for global gambling giant las vegas sands as it bets big in the hottest region for gaming in the world s cnbc's emily tan is joining us from macao with the look at interview. emily. >> reporter: thanks, frank we are on the red carpet londoner macao here is the first resort opening post covid. it was opened in phases across the pandemic really nice look today at five ho tels launched across with

6,000 hotel rooms. rob goldstein is someone i talked to about getting back to the pre-pan demic levels. >> you have to dissect macao you have a large segment now gone that segment created high revenues less success in bottom line and income we live in a new world today which i don't know you will reach the same levels of top line i think you can exceed the ebita numbers of 2019. i don't know if it was 2023 and 2024 >> reporter: macao is a gaming hub that overtook vegas with revenue. the pandemic changed that and taken a toll the government strategy now in granting licenses to the op

operators in the city is a shift to non gaming. we will see las vegas sands and wynn and mgm >> right on the red carpet great dress. i should ask you what you are wearing. you are red carpet ready about the business, what else are they looking at outside of macao? >> reporter: they just got granted a 99-year lease. rob said he got 68 acres and they will build a resort there which will take a year before things get moving. early steps really new york is a lot like macao they are looking at expanding there. in terms of markets outside of the united states, they have taken a look at thailand and japan is where they pulled out of i asked after selling out the las vegas assets during the pandemic and if he was willing to go back in there and he said

no markets are off limits. frank. >> emily tan live in macao thank you. straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," the playbook ahead for retail and why our next guest says things are set to get worse when it comes to home improvement. "worldwide exchange" will be backft ts. aerhi if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started.

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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new

york city area we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. rating risk. the first shoe drops as fitch fires a warning shot kayla tausche has the latest out of d.c. shares of nvidia sky rocket push the market cap to the $1 trillion mark. and failure to launch. ron desantis' official entry to the presidential race forcing twitter to a string of glitches. it is thursday, may 25th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome back i'm frank holland. let's pick up with the check on the stock futures and the risk

with the dow and nasdaq. in almost 2% split this difference with the dow and nasdaq, you see the nasdaq up very strong this morning s&p up fractionally as well. nvidia, we were just talking about it, is responsible for the pre-market gains for the nasdaq after the q1 beat. shares up 25% this morning much more on that massive market cap move coming up later in the show we are watching the bond mrarke as we get closer to the x date the 10-year treasury continuing to rise closer to june 1st we have been saying this as we get closer to the x date the 2-year treasury was below 4% and whipsaw action on the bonds. very close to 6% it was above 6% before we

started the show the 2-month p aat 5.46. we turn attention around the world as europe gets trading the cac 40 down fractionally the ftse 100 down as well. the dax down .25%. ger despite the stock market trading a tick below the most 52-week high, new data showing europe's second largest economy is actually in recession. the latest read on german gdp coming in at negative 0.3% bouncing off the lows from a short time ago let's check on the top stories and including the action

around short sellers by the u.s. government bertha coombs is here with that and more good morning >> good morning, frank the justice department is looking to take steps over short selling in the coming months that according to reuters. citing comments by the head of the doj marketing integrity team in a speech yesterday. reuters says the comments are not the first time the doj official addressed the trading practice which faced fresh scrutiny in the wake of the regional bank turmoil. reuters always reporting that carl icahn is set to put one of his three nominees on the illumina board the shareholders can change their votes until the company's annual shareholder meeting later today. icahn accused the board of poor

oversight, especially over the $7.1 billion acquisition of grail. and rocky start for ron desantis' entry into the 2024 presidential race. desantis tapping elon musk's twitter for the big unveil which was derailed by a host of tech technical glitches the technical director was supposed to introduce the event and was heard saying the servers are melting. frank. >> bertha coombs with the headlines. thank you. turning to washington now and the latest in the debt ceiling talks. fitch putting the u.s. aaa long-term currency default rating on negative watch the agency citing the standoff of the negotiations.

>> first of all, let me tell the american public, i'm not going to give up we are not going to default. we're going to solve this problem. i will stay with it until we can get it done. let's be honest about this we have to spend less than we spent last year. it is not my fault the democrats cannot give up on their spending >> for lthe latest, let's bring in kayla tausche in washington kayla, where would we stand with a week to do before the x date >> reporter: frank, negotiators met yesterday and no br breakthroughs to report as the date moves closer. and new issues with fitch. this is why they wanted to begin negotiating in february and the white house and treasury statement saying the warning tonight, meaning last night, under scores the swift b

bipartisan action to avoid crisis for the economy yesterday, optimism was scarce with the messaging of the process. the mccaccarthy's top negotiator saying we are past the deadline for a deal >> it all comes down to it you know why with e are here we spent more money under democrat control in our 50-year history based on the average of gdp. we are spending more than we have ever spent. all this while bringing in more money than any other time. >> reporter: as republicans say that top line spending number is critical, it needs to come down. when i talk to white house officials, they are focusing on preserving specific programs rather than taking a swipe at the budget overall the meetings yesterday took

several hours. we're still waiting to hear from negotiators of what transpired during the time and whether they moved the ball forward and made any progress and what that means for the deadline we will see if we get news today. frank. >> anticipation of the possibility of the news. kayla, wall street is not sold on the hard deadline of june 1st. economists at santander says it should move by through june 15th even if no deal is struck. goldman sachs says it is likely the treasury could make payments until june 8th a week later than janet yellen forecasted and wrightson's date is june 5th. what is your sense of this >> reporter: frank, add one more estimate to the list that is the bipartisan policy

center which mapped out what bills treasury needs to pay in the month of june before the tax revenues come in on june 15th. they estimate june 2nd to june 13th june 2nd, obviously, is right after june 1st it is earlier than any date you showed the reason why is because there are social security payments and payments to military families and benefits set to go out. the treasury department shows there would be a crisis of public opinion if it were not to be able to make those payments sure, wall street can say pay sovereign debt first make sure you don't anger other creditors. there is a real reluctance to anger the electorate and there are federal salaries that are

d due at that time even though there is prognostication that the government could make it to the later dates to june 15th the treasury says we have never been in this boat before and we don't want it to be the first time. >> kayla tausche, thank you. turning to earnings and other results out today including best buy and costco and dollar tree. strong margins are beating trends let's see if that continues. let's bring in scott mushkin >> thank you, frank. >> we had earnings coming up i want to talk about same-store sales. so far, the only two notable beats have been walmart and urban outfitters >> i think retail is struggling. it is not surprising we had a lot of overbuying during the pandemic. that is specifically seeing in

some of the hard goods from home depot and lowe's we get best buy this morning clearly, apparel urban outfitters target talked about apparel being weak we had overbuying. we think $500 billion in extra spending was done during the pandemic on the durable and cyclical goods with staying home we will work that off. our data shows we are buying into the fourth quarter and we are still under purchasing services that's got to be worked off. now you have to layer on the most likely outcome of recession back half of 2023 and 2024 pretty difficult environment for these retailers and best buy has other issues going on that make it difficult. >> let's talk about best buy it reports later today shares are down 1% before that

report what is your price target on best buy what are your expectations from this report? >> we think the stock will trend into the low 60s you mentioned in the open where the companies are beating on margins. best buy has a track record of beating. i reviewed the street on best buy during the quarter earnings is ratcheted down off the quarter. they have a track record of beating a bit. we are playing the wall street game where the numbers come down the bottom line is the best buy business model, forget the cyclical situation here. secularly, the business has problems 30% of sales are online. they are cutting employees at stores the store conditions have continued to deteriorate some their fault with cutting labor and some not their fault.

>> scott, great to have you here >> thank you coming up on "worldwide exchange," nvidia closing in on the $1 trillion club kristina partsinevelos breaks down the stock surge this morning and the a.i. impact and what it means for the biggest competitors. as we head to break, the big money movers shares of snowflake melting after the beat in the first quarter, but offered disappointing guidance for the quarter and trimmed the guidance for the full year. the ceo said he sees tremendous growth ahead shares of american eagle not fitting right after the q2 revenue to fall in the low single digits instead of 1.6% increase the company reported a mixed quarter with earnings per share coming in line with estimates and revenue beat expectation shares down 19%. different story for e.l.f.

beauty a beat and raise on the guidance for the year pricing and lower transportation costs and cost savings helping the margins. shares of e.l.f. up 11% this morning. (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon.

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welcome back time for the morning call sheet.

we begin with jpmorgan chase upgrade be the vip shop boosting from rating to overweight. starting price from $16 to $18 a share. this is the best defense sive py in china and dish network from buy to neutral. the company needs capital and clear path in the wireless space. the stock of the morning nvidia upgrading to out performance raising the price target to $475 from $300 on the back of earnings and bigger price target going from $320 to $500 per share. let's stick with nvidia and the biggest money mover of the day shares surging ahead of the open on the upgrades and back of the outstanding first quarter report that pop set to add more than

$180 billion of the market cap of the open. a.i. is the big driver with the surge in demand for the company's a.i. chips kristina partsinevelos has more on the report. kristina >> reporter: frank, i have 18 in my email right now with the estimates higher what we saw is one point which is $220 billion added to the nvidia market cap in extended hours trading. it is above $180 billion that is more than all of amd market cap of $174 billion salesforce with $209 billion the company, nvidia, is so confident of the transition from cpu processors to generative a.i. that it is guiding for $11 billion in second quarter revenue. that is 53% or $3.8 billion the better than what and alysts wer

and participating. the ceo said the data center exists and the servers will require an upgrade to generate new content. that's where nvidia chips come into play. something intel hasn't come close to offering. and this is bringing on the growing divide of the intel and nvidia gross margins nvidia's adjusted gross margin moved 66% p. i intel's dropped. that gap is only expected to widen again and contributing to intel's stock reaction post the nvidia earnings we saw on the earnings call, ceo admitted competition is fierce he didn't name names

the closest competitor, amd, seeing shares rise 8%. it is launches an a.i. related chip this year there are other a.i. plays as well meta announced the a.i. training model. broadcomm with the chips with google the arista networks as well. nvidia results stood out overcomeo over competitors biggest bottom line beat in years. frank. >> you mentioned the gain of market cap intel only $120 billion market cap to spell out how big the move kristina, you mentioned how many times a.i. was mentioned in the call nvidia is anticipating a surge of data center demand. what about the supply side could we see another covid

shortage >> reporter: to the a.i. question, i stopped counting after 13 minutes within 13 minutes, a.i. was mentioned over 32 times. that was only from the cfo that'ses that bucket to your second point that is a big concern. if every single company right now is going to re-vamp and put all of the money into buying graphics processing chips, that means there will be a huge demand on the call, you had nvidia make sure all of the investors know they will have enough supply into the second half of the year they reiterated that several times. however, wong is going to t'aipei next week. tsmc is building the chips this is about whether they can secure all of the production lines in the event to keep up with demand. a lot of it is relying on tsmc

>> you will get an ask later today. i know you don't know. >> i'll look it up >> what is the over/under? >> reporter: definitely over 50 should we bet? >> i'm not a gambler kristina partsinevelos, great reporting. ahead here on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to know and you can see the pre-market with investors grappling with the overhang of the debt ceiling talks. our next guest says it is time for investors to buckle thup if you missed us, check us out on your favorite podcast apps you can sign up for cnbc pro with the special offer to get stock tips and insight just go to the qr code on the

screen or go to cnbc.com/pro it was easy this time or scan the qr code. "worldwide exchange" is coming back in a minute but it is now time for us to work even harder, searching for meaningful experiences and new adventures for you to embark upon. they say when you reach the top, there's only one way to go. we say, that way is onwards. viking. exploring the world in comfort.

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are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. welcome back we gear up for the trading day ahead and look at the futures for the latest on the debt ceiling negotiations nvidia taking off on earnings. futures with the nasdaq up 2%. dow down fractionally. s&p up .50%. for more, let's bring in lizzie evans. >> good morning, frank. >> the stock story of the morning is nvidia. does it change your opinion of mega cap tech? a lot of people thought the rally was coming to an end

is there more room to run? >> i do. i think the big a.i. mega cap tech is here to stay nasdaq up 20% year to date i think you want to be selective. there are companies to own a.i. is in early stages. >> let's talk portfolio protection do you have a pick that you put money pin today with the uncertainty with the debt ceiling? >> i think there is structured products or investments which are interesting in the environment. market linked use options to provide down side protection those innvestments change every month based on pricing options of the if you tell a client s&p is up 9% year to date, how would you like to invest s&p take 10% down side protection.

a year from now, if the market is down 15, you are down 5 you still participate in the upside to the cap of 18% that's attractive. t particularly in a sideways trading environment. >> we are keeping an eye on the debt ceiling what is your "wex word of the day? >> we have greatest spectacle in racing the indianapolis 500 spe spec spectacle. it is insane we wait until the 11th hour and play this game of chicken p. >> just to keep your analogy going. we are racing toward the finish line before we let you go, do you have a stock pick?

>> i do. you talked about nvidia. we like palo alto. they had a super strong quarter. they have great earnings guidance they raised on revenue when we talk about generer gene a.i., that will increase cyber security >> i'm sorry to cut you off. palo alto network up on the a.i. trade. lizzie, thank you. the nasdaq up 2% that does it for us. "squawk box" is up next.

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says debt ceiling talks are progressing, but house members are leaving town with no deal. now fitch putting the credit rating on watch. and the rocky start for ron desantis his launch marred by technical difficulties and shares of nvidia soaring on robust demand for chips it is thursday, may 25th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with brian sullivan >> good to see you, becky. >> other end of the spectrum >> i came from "last call. right from that sh