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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  May 24, 2023 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

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gen-z. airbnb said its flagging and blocking one and two night stays during the memorial holiday that they deem at risk. sorry, ty. >> what can i say? anyhow, go have a good weekend why don't you start early? thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts now. i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange. we begin with the count down to nvidia earnings. less than an hour away the stock up more than 100% year to date. there's so much riding on those results for those shares and for the tech trade overall here's your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation, the debt ceiling dual weighing on the markets the speaker says they're far apart on spending cuts he remains hopeful and said the
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country will not default on its debt all three of the majors trading lower. yields rising today. that's proving to be a considerable headwind on stocks as well. it leads us to our talk of the tape, nvidia's moment and whether it will live up to the hype let's ask our experts. great to have everybody with us. bryn, you have this stock. you've done incredibly well. it's up more than 100% what are you thinking about today? >> so it's pretty incredible nvidia ipo to 1999 i went back and looked it's had eight years, scott, where it had a return of over 100% while this year seems very rare for a stock to be up 100%, actually in the history of nvidia, it's not that rare that's so phenomenal and shows
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you what a powerhouse this stock has been i think it's going to come down to jensen. he's a master salesman we want to hear about these h-100 chips. we want them to hit that ball over the fence and really have tremendous demand. i want to hear about that. i think so do a lot of investors. >> stacy, are the goods going to be good enough to justify this incredible move we've had in the stock? by the way, you have a price target of 300 bucks. we're there. >> it's there. it's run a lot we'll see how things go tonight. i can't imagine they'll say anything that's going to kill the narrative. it's clear that ai is a real thing. they're able to reach out and touch it
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they have tons of demand, more than they can supply at this point for these h-100s i can't imagine that anything they will say will kill the narrative. nobody is going to think that demand is less than they thought. i think expectations are clearly high the stock is up a lot. it's up a ton year over year at the same time i think -- how did you put it jensen's got the goods >> stacy, what do you do with the stock as an analyst here it was six weeks ago where you just raised the price target are you tempted to move it to a neutral because of the run do you think it's justified and has more how do you look at it as one of the top-rated analysts on wall street >> i always say expensive all by itself is never reason to sell a
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tech stock there has to be a catalyst you can identify a ton of catalysts. yes, it's expensive. the day i launched on it it was 50 times earnings. it was not expensive it was incredibly cheap. the eve of the nominator, it was wrong. the eve was a lot bigger over time than people were thinking i think anybody owning it here is of the belief that that it's not as expensive as it looks because it can grow and drive earning power more than people are thinking it's a very plausible story. >> i guess e equals ai if you want to say. >> thank you >> all right malcolm, malcolm, malcolm, you don't own nvidia. >> i don't, but i want to. the point you made about the
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analyst price targets was a good one because the average price target is 299 and change we're right there today. either we'll get a bunch of reratings and folks are going to have to reprice those price targets or we'll see a lot of down grades to neutral i doubt many will go against the grain and drop those calls down to neutral i imagine the price target increases we're bound to get will lift the stock a little bit, even if we get the slide in share price today that i as a wanna be investor am hoping for. >> i saw the notes you gave to our producing team you said if it falls below 290, you would buy it i mean, over ten bucks really >> so, i don't mean i'm going to buy the entire position i intend to own let me be clear there.
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i definitely think a 10% slide in the name is enough to make it interesting because i think we're having one of those moments we saw in 2019, the back part of 2019, with tesla where elon musk was trolling analysts left and right because every time someone would make a call that this is the moment that tesla has to fall, it would find a reason to go up again. that's the same thing we're seeing with nvidia it could be overbought, but they keep finding a reason to go up again and again. i think it's a case where you average down each time we get a significant pullback in the market, 10% or more is a good time to buy a few more shares so that way if it continues to go up and to the right the same way it has this year, you get to participate in it, but you're not in danger of getting whacked over the head because you bought your entire position. >> stacy, intel, amd, data
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center slowing somewhat for them does nvidia buck that trend? are they able to do it do they just see slowing not to the degree that the others are how do you assess that as you look at a critical metric today? >> enterprise spending and data sharing has been weak. cloud spending in general is rolling over it's impacting intel and amd spending is being prioritize on artificial intelligence. while they're not spending as much on servers and other infrastructure, it does look like spending on ai is happening. clearly there's not enough there's been all kinds of stories about big cloud companies who have to ration their use of gpus. they don't have enough my biggest thing i'm wondering is, you know, if nvidia has
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upside and they need to deliver it, it takes time to get the waivers. there's a lead time. that's something that may negate their ability to show near-term upside if that's the case, they have to talk up the back half. i can't imagine they're going to say anything that's going to make people feel worse about the narrative. >> of course they're going to talk about ai as much as you possibly can, and for good reason. stacy, i joke about e equals ai. what upside do you really side in the numbers as it relates to where artificial intelligence is now for the company and where we think the addressable market for it could really be >> i think we're early jensen loves to get up on stage and throw up big numbers that's fine. they threw out a trillion dollar attempt for the whole company. it seemed crazy, although it
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seems less crazy every day if it's 300 billion or 200 billion or 100 billion, nvidia is running their business at $15 billion a year give or take. there's a ton of head room in front of us. it will have its ups and downs it's volatile. i mean, this type of a trend, we're just at the start of it. chatgpt has only been around since november. >> it's amazing. to hear you talk like that and, bryn, i've had people on the show recently, whether halftime or here, suggesting you got to have portfolio management. you have to take some profits. the stock's run so much. the size and the position is too big, whatever the excuse is for suggesting you have to trim a little bit here. stacy paints an opposite picture
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that, if you do, you run the risk of missing out in some tremendous upside, that the market shockingly is still arguably underappreciating >> i think more investors are like malcolm they don't own the name. it has a small short position. if they don't own the name and you get a pullback or the debt ceiling, there's a lot of people that underowned in nvidia and will be adding to it i think we're scratching the surface. i think the stock will continue to get a bid like stacy said, it's been volatile, but it's had over eight years where it's had 100% return it seems like this vertical with ai is just gaining steam if their revenues are growing to back up that e, then people will want to buy the stock and i think it's underowned by the
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br broad investors. >> malcolm, what do you think is riding on these results for tech overall? it's not just an nvidia story. it's the mega cap stocks that have led the way this year is everything riding on what nvidia does today? >> i don't think everything is riding on what nvidia does today. i've been calling for tech to start to get sold off the last six weeks. it can't continue this run it doesn't make sense it continues to lead everything else you have the same five to ten names leading the charge what i started to look at is the momentum we were seeing was coming in from retail investors only eight or nine different names wholeheartedly and a lot of the institutional money was still sitting in cash. that's what's following behind these names pushing up the tech
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trade. we saw the same thing in 2020 where the smart money was saying we need to get out of this market and you had retail investors who were buying up the high fliers and then institutional money had to follow that's what we're seeing happening right now. that's what gives us the momentum behind the name like nvidia and anybody else who could continue to bid up this market in ways that don't make sense based on traditional metrics. >> bryn, how would you assess the question of what might be really riding on this just given where the market is, given what tech has done and how you think it's vulnerable here or not? >> i think -- the majority of the returns for tech came in that first six weeks of the year if you were out of tech in january and the first couple weeks of february, you missed the majority of that return. i think that the majority of returns for tech have already been had that's why i like covered calls.
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i think jensen's speech and his earning call is going to be packed he's going to validate ai and give it more juice i don't think there's any risk he says something that derails any type of ai rally in general these big stocks, apple, microsoft, seem tired and hitting that upper resistance. >> what about the chips themselves are they tired too smh is up 30% year to date or close to that number >> the chips in general, not a good day today chips in general have had a good year you want to buy it when earnings are bottoming. estimates started coming in in june and they're down 35% from that peak. now, at the same time, it's starting to get in there look at the back half numbers
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and inventories if you look on balance sheets they're really high and it's like at a 30% premium, which is one of the biggest premiums we've seen. i've been looking for that back half recovery. you know, it is different market by market. some of the out of favor markets, pcs and smartphones, they're further along on that cycle. you could make the case that could look better in the back half industrial and auto are just starting to roll it's kind of an asynchronous progression. >> malcolm, leave me with a thought on amazon. there's a shareholder meeting today. >> yeah. the big thing to me i'm sure amazon will want to focus attention on is how much they improved their delivery methods and ai as a shareholder, i'm interested
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in their expectations for their ad sales amazon is coming in as a third place participant in the global ad sales market. that's not their number two or number three business line i'll be interested to hear how they intend to push forward in that arena. >> great conversation. i enjoyed it talk to all of you soon. stacy, malcolm and bryn, thank you. our twitter question of the day is does nvidia have room to run? go to twitter to vote. let's get to the top stocks to watch kristina partsinevelos is here with that. kristina >> reporter: shares of intuit moving to the downside after issuing quarterly esults
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q3 earnings came in above, but they reported a revenue miss the current quarter missed analysts expectations. shares of petco are plunging right now, 14% after surprising investors with a q1 loss consumers are more cautious after the banking uncertainty in march and that's why they have seen a slow down in sales. shares are down 18.5%. scott? >> yikes kristina, thank you. just getting started on "closing bell. up next the triple threat to stocks alicia levine is here and gives us her strategy. olater, we'll reveal the sector trading up.
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we're live at the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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the latest fed minutes showing a growing divide among committee members on the need for future rate hikes steve liesman joining us now >> reporter: after the fed hike in may, divisions rose about the
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next decision in june. all agreed it was uncertain because they didn't know what the effects would be so far and the potential for banks to tighten credit they also needed they needed to retain optionality some officials saw the need for rate hikes because of the slow decline inflation. that's fed speak some said they didn't see a need for further hikes. i reported this wrong in the next hour. it's not fed speak some is more than several according to the fed the committee is tilting hawkish on the out look for future hikes and some officials stress the fed should not indicate cuts were likely this year or rule out further hikes. fed governor said he was uncertain about whether the fed should hike, pause or skip a
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meeting. because of the inflation data, it suggests the fed should hike. maybe they should skip a meeting. policy lags and credit tightening suggest a pause he seemed to lean towards a skip because of his concern about inflation. there were mentions about the debt ceiling in the minutes with many officials saying it was important for the congress to raise the debt limit scott? >> steve, it appears from hearing jamie dimon and david solomon this week and then listening to all the fed speak, it seems as if the only party not really trying to prepare people for higher rates or a higher fed funds rate is the market doesn't want to believe it >> reporter: but i will say this, scott -- first of all, i need to have a clause here
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look, we don't exactly know, but the market has come closer to the fed. if you look at the fed market gap for the end of the year, it's about 30 basis points it had been as much as 100 basis points between where the fed thinks it's going to be and where the market is pricing it the trouble is that number is polluted by concern over the debt ceiling you've seen all the short-term t bill rates surge because of default concerns we're not sure how pure a reading we're getting. if the default concern came off the table, that gap may be wider. as to the stock market, they've been dancing to their own tune they raise rates when inflation is high. if inflation is down, they go back to the world they had before there's obviously pain ahead concern about a recession. the market seems to keep chugging along. >> it certainly does.
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joining me now alicia levine of bny mellon how are you thinking about the f fed? >> i think they're going to pause in june and they have to because of the debt ceiling. to the sense we have our slow credit contraction going on without an event, likely to be a skip they could be back at it in the autumn >> is that why you suggest it's going to be a difficult environment for equities >> i see three reasons for why it's a difficult environment for equities the first is the gap in the pricing between where the fed is saying they are and where the market is and i agree with steve liesman. we had mispricing because of the debt ceiling to the extent that equities have rallied because inflation has moved lower and the bond market is pricing in cuts by the end of the year, you get a higher multiple if you take that out and you
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take that cut by the end of the year out, equities have to meet the new curve on the fed pricing. the second reason is in the event that there's some sort of credit event, let's call it 10%, something really bad out there could happen because it's a fed tightening cycle then equities are going to have a problem. the third reason is liquidity issues we're assuming the debt ceiling gets signed. when that happens, the treasury issue wins and that could cause volatility. >> many people suggesting that i hear most people paint a worrisome story about the market being a bear is easy at this point. >> very easy. >> why not talk more about the strength in the economy and the resilience of the stock market
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and the fact that the fed might, in fact, be done we're going to get more inflation prints when the fed is allegedly out of the game, even if it's sitting on the bench temporarily. they're still out of the game. why aren't more people talking about that >> it feels with 500 basis points of hiking in 12 or 13 months you're bound to get an event that happens i agree with you we think by the end of the year the market could be fine and you could rally from here. what we're talking about subpoena that short-term volatility when all these issues come together. the debt ceiling, the treasury issue, the t bill issuance, the issue of whether or not the fed has to have more hikes the bottom line is the economy has been great if the data goes the right way, the fed could pause.
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even if they pause, that pause is not a cut it's still higher than where the market is pricing at the end of the year. >> sense we started the show with nvidia and all roads seem to lead to ai and the mega cap tech trade, what do you make of it here? is it vulnerable >> i think it's extended and vulnerable it's clear why investors flock there after the epic selloff last year and the excitement of ai and let's talk about the cash flow funding models for large companies that don't need to borrow and can fund their models it makes sense to a point. they're very extended. vulnerable, but not fundamentally vulnerable, not like last year where we were wondering how high inflation was going to go and where the fed was going to go. we're going to finish around 500
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or 525 with that the multiples can hang in here. they're very extended. they could be vulnerable, but i don't think it's a fundamental story. >> what about jim breyer, he was saying this is akin to the '95 period of the internet, that early and that these core stocks -- we're not talking about the the pet stocks we're talking about the companies that are going to be the leaders. the total market possibilities are so large and as jim breyer suggested, we're only on the 2nd hole, to use a golf analogy. are we fully appreciating the power of this? >> that's a great question if you make the '95 analogy, we didn't know who the winners were going to be although we knew the
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word was changing and it was going to be enormous we don't know how enormous yet the sense that incumbents can win this because of that, that gains credibility here it's going to be hard for smaller players to come in here. they'll get eaten up >> in other words, you see through the noise this time, right? you can't just be any company and suggest, well, ai this and we do this in ai and we'll be huge, blah, blah, blah we'll see through that this time, i think. >> i think the incumbents win, we just don't know who is going to be the ultimate winner. i like to talk about -- there were times in '99, 2000, 2001, there were a couple companies buying for the best of one fell out and it wasn't clear who was going to fall out. i think the excitement is real there's going to be pressure from washington to regulate some
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of this. as we've seen, very hard for washington to regulate tech that they don't understand. >> good to have you here, thank you. alicia levine. we're about 30 minutes from nvidia's earning. straight ahead, energy the biggest sector loser this year have the stocks gotten cheap enough for investors to take a second look? throughout the month of may we're celebrating aapi heritage. >> as a woman of indian heritage in the tech sector where funding is limited and more so in venture capital, recognition is minimal. what you have is your power to believe in yourself and do not lose your vision or your mission because that's what makes you who you are and help yourself
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welcome back energy, one of the only positive s sectors today. take a look at the ticker. we're down 300 points. dow still down, but now about 162 or so. again, nasdaq and the s&p have been in the red all day long as well the debt debate talks are an overhang, interest rates are too as we count down to the nvidia numbers. let's talk more about energy valuations are tumbling to new lows pippa stevens joins us with more. >> reporter: after two years of outperforming energy stocks are lagging this year with the pe
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ra ratio at the s&p down. the refiners are the cheapest with marathon petroleum trading at 5.2 apa and phillips on the relatively cheaper side. when it comes to wall street's favorite halliburton and targa resources are top picks. kinder morgan is at 29%. goldman sachs said investors should focus on companies that have under performed but have positive catalysts on the horizon. scott, back to you. >> pippa stevens, thank you. let's bring back in bryn i'm looking at energy. it's down more than 8% year to
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date is a turnaround in the cards >> i think so. this area is really cheap, but cheap can stay cheap for a long time you need a catalyst. what's happened this year is since mid last year russia's pumped 2 million more barrels than expected. china not opening as robust as we hoped for then you have recession fears. what's the catalyst? bonds and oil, scott, are priced in at a recession right now while tech stocks are going to infinity as the months progress to the summer which is the strong season for oil, as we get into the narrative, if nothing breaks and we have this pickup, then oil is mispriced today that's the catalyst as recession fears get pushed out to 2024
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if that's the case, that will be dwindling. >> as you mentioned, you've only got so much money left after the money that's gone into communication services and technology and with that extra money you're putting it in longer-dated treasuries and money markets as a safer play with less risk. >> sure. i think with money markets you're getting 5% which is a great cash rate. it's a wonderful cash rate where it can just sit there and earn 5% that's not a long-term outcome within the energy space right around 13%, they continue to have capital discipline. they're low pes and if you don't go into a recession, that's the catalyst to go higher. clients are more -- i would say
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go long money markets and when your investment dollars barbell between technology and energy because they're good hedges. >> what's the most recent energy move you've made >> you know, i added to devin during spring break when silicon valley bank was falling apart. that day everyone thought it was going to take us into a recession and devon sold off down to that 45 level. the thing with devon, they have a nice buyback i bought it at 45. i'll sell if it gets to 55 or 53 just to give me some protection. you'll see these companies like devon trading in that 45 to $53. if you buy the stock, it's been a good strategy this year to own
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energy if you're timing it correctly. >> bryn, thank you that's bryn talkington we're tracking the biggest movers kristina partsinevelos is standing by with that. >> reporter: '90s, wide leg jeans and fancy outfits for your pet is why the retail sector is soaring. i'll have the big stock movers after the break.
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15 minutes to go before the close. let's get back to kristina partsinevelos. >> reporter: abercrombie and fitch has been reinventing itself gone are the days of the poorly lit stores sales are up 3% in q1. they posted a surprise profit. shares are up 31%. urban outfitters, the stock up 15% now. the stock is up almost 18% now kohl's, a first quarter profit allowing management to reaffirm its out look the new sephora shops are
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helping this name, up almost 8%. scott? >> kristina, thank you. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked if nvidia still has room to run? the results are coming up after the break. tomorrow, mark lasry is going to join us we'll discuss the markets, rates debt ceiling, investment opportunities in sports. we're back in two minutes.
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near 60% only a few minutes away from the big earnings report. we'll break down the key numbers aheadof it in "overtime. there's the countdown clock. 32 minutes and change. thatto sry and more when we take you inside the market zone i can't, you know, thank my parents enough for making sure that this connection is here. one of the things that my mother told me when she was in the hospital, she didn't tell me, actually, she couldn't speak at the time, but she wrote it down... "go see alicia." oh, my goodness. you know, and there was never a time that you were too busy.
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to expect from nvidia. and frank holland when snowflake reports. mike santoli is with us first. i thought the dow was trying to make a run back. now it's going the other way it's going to hang on the debt ceiling, interest rates and fed speak. >> yeah, so over the last two weeks the lows for the day, the lows for the week have been about 4100 on the s&p. in the absence of the big drivers, the real money wants to push the market out of sideways trend. as the big nasdaq stocks have cooled off, it's created that shakedown effect we're watching the debt ceiling negotiations we know they're going to sound like they're not close until it's done. you take everything with a grain of salt. maybe the market has to panic to inject a sense of urgency.
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no individual wants to be the person who panics because it's going to be a temporary shakeout we're in that mode right now getting i mpatient but not feeling like anything has really changed. people are holding back, making significant bet. >> i want to chat nvidia with you. first i want to go to kristina partsinevelos who is waiting for that report, as kristina, we all are because the stock has been such a massive winner and there might be a lot riding on this. >> reporter: a lot riding on data center revenues and how much that contributed to q1 growth we're anticipating data center revenue guidance to increase 9 to 10% what we're looking for, yes, the guidance because will it justify the sky-high valuation that you're seeing, trading over 50 times earnings it's not a cheap name. other thing, the recovery in
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china is that still going strong like we've seen with other chip makers and will that affect gaming for nvidia which is a big business for them? then there are some comments i'll be looking for from jensen haung and china. he said yesterday the u.s. tech industry is in for enormous damage if china doesn't rebound. intel down 14%, amd down 22% yes, ai is the high. yes, ai requires the h-100 chip from nvidia, but will that be enough to drive growth in the quarter and in the subsequent quarters in the near term? >> we can't wait to see you in "overtime. we'll see you in a bit
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kristina partsinevelos, get ready for what's the biggest earnings report of the season. mike santoli, bespoke always has great information. the stock nvidia, has been up 90% plus in the six months leading up to an earnings report five other times on the five earnings reaction days that followed, nvidia was up four times out of the five. huge moves and not really a sell on that news. >> no. momentum is a real phenomenon in markets, both price momentum and fundamental momentum and story line momentum. i think that's one of the things it tells you what's fascinating is the way this stock has so massively repriced at a time when earnings in the current fiscal year are basically -- supposed to come in where last fiscal year came in we moved forward this earnings power by a year, meaning moved it further into the future
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by august 31st, fiscal 2024 estimates are the same as they are now. stock's doubled since then for fiscal '25, earnings estimates up 8 or 9% in the time the stocks have doubled. it's mostly about what can you tell me about whether this is the perfect play for the big picture shifts in technology we're expected. >> frank holland we have big valuations for snowflake, don't we >> it's trading at 220 times earnings the earnings report we're expecting after the bell snowflake is an indirect beneficiary of the ai craze. shares out performing since last quarter. snowflake provides the data you need for artificial
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intelligence it's supposed to be a tailwind for a company like this. near-term guidance remains the big question when it comes to this report. current guidance is the key metric to watch. products where snowflake gets all its revenues analysts are questioning the ability to reach year over year earnings neeva, analysts say this will be a valuable acquisition this is a chance for snowflake to prove it has a business model to justify that valuation. shares are up 1% right now >> frank, we'll let you bounce and get ready for that we'll see you in "overtime" with the delivery of those numbers and the stock reaction snowflake, remember when this thing went public. it was like 200 times sales.
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>> it was a big deal when it was just achieving that $100 billion valuation. it's under 60 right now. very different places in terms of life cycles, snowflake versus nvidia nvidia revenue-wise ten times as much market cap more than ten times as much. nvidia very profitable it will be a test of that class of 2020 and 2021, the new companies, that don't have to race to nose bleed levels and then a real crash and then base building it's happening all over the place with those stocks that took advantage of a new issue market value. >> nobody really looks at the market wiser than you do in terms of big picture stuff what do you think is riding on nvidia in less than five minutes, presumably that report is going to come out
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we just had the two-minute warning. >> they keep you waiting after the close for nvidia what's riding on it, i think it's about a reality check on the ai excitement and on the semi cycle it's going to have to inform both things. nvidia has almost gotten escape velocity relative to the rest of the semis. do you have some kind of sub s if overall market impact, if it causes people to say we got carried away with the big mega cap platform companies in the last couple months and they have to reset lower, it could have a broader impact we're trying to figure out what
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the rest of the market can absorb. >> conversely, it could justify continuing to put money there if it pushes apple over that goal line of a new all-time high. there's the bell we'll count you down to nvidia in "overtime." i'll send it to morgan and john. we have your score card on wall street. welcome to "overtime." i'm john fortt with morgan bre brennan. grow stories are the theme nvidia and snowflake, nvidia touching 52-week highs, more than doubling here today snowflake looking to show its data prowess is still strong we'll get numbers from american eagle and guess. reporters are standing by with the results. plus, we'll talk to bob
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