it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." we begin with wall street and stocks coming off the best day in weeks futures getting a boost. and front and center is retail after target's cautious outlook which casts a cloud. this morning, it is walmart's turn. overseas, a split decision for chinese equities as alibaba gets set to report its results for the bull and bear case. preparing for an m&a boom. a look at the names that should be on the radar ahead.

later, gauging the a.i. impact and the tech which is upending health care it is thursday, may 18th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm hollafrank holland. futures are moving higher right now. the dow is flat. ticking a bit higher s&p and nasdaq with a similar story. this after a strong showing for stocks yesterday with the averages posting the best day in two weeks. we are checking the bond market looking at the yields. the 10-year treasury is 3.58 yields ticking up. look at the 2-year treasury. this yield is moving up this month now at 4.16. it was a tick below 4% a week

ago. we are eyeing the short end of the bond curve this morning. we have a one-month note 5.703. big move to the upside the yield is more than 1% higher in may 1.25% when it comes to yield from the beginning of the month. the two-month to three-month is the same story we will talk about energy later, but oil right now. benchmark crude is down 1% ice brent crude is down more than .50%. natural gas is fractionally lower. breaking news. live pictures of president biden in hiroshima, japan for the start of the g7 summit holding a meeting with the japanese prime minister ueda

these are live pictures of president biden sitting down with the japanese prime minister at the start of the g7 summit. looking around the world green arrows in asia with stocks in japan popping more than 1%. trading in europe is getting under way. green arrows across the board in europe dax is the best up 1.5%. let's check on the corporate stories with pippa stevens pippa. >> good morning, frank netflix says it has nearly 5 million monthly active users on its ad supported tier since launching six months ago speaking during a presentation, netflix ceo greg peters said the members beh members base doubled since january. and a new law signed by governor john aforte of montana,

it will be illegal to offer tiktok as a digital download as of january next year legal experts expects bytedance to challenge the law and paramount global shari redstone is buying up $2.5 million of company stock this comes as the stock is near sa is near a 52-week low. >> down 7% year to date pippa, thank you see you later on. now turning back to wall street tech continuing to perform with the tech spdr at the highest level since november of 2022 the key is semiconductors

leading the sector higher. the moves come as those stocks rebound with the a.i. and expectations of the potential pause in the rate hiking campaign driving that trade higher joining to discuss is gina sanchez. gina, great to see you >> thank you >> i think the question here is, gina, is the growth trade back >> well, you know, it depends on how you think this is going to play out we are headed into the slowdown. that is unquestionable some of what has been pushing this tech story has been looking past the recession and into the long-term trends trends like cloud and trends like open a.i. and what that means for productivity so, we have continued to see demand in that space and demand by investors to holds these names. if you look at how the stock

market is acting, we have been trading the defensive sectors with healthcare and utilities which are expensive right now. we have been rotating out of that into consumer disc discretionary. tech has continued to remain expensive through the space. if you believe the long-run extraj trajectory, this is okay to invest >> we are seeing signs when it comes to the debt limit deal and short-term bonds are elevated. people don't feel comfortable in equities right now how do you see the debt ceiling deal potentially impacting your sectors? >> i think the debt limit talks represent short-term volatility at the best and a real dislocation to the market at the

worst. it doesn't necessarily change where we think we are going on average. we think we are headed into the slowdown and assuming we don't hit a real dislocation with the debt ceiling talks, then we should actually head into that and head into a mild recession or a growth recession. the story on that is still the same which is that you have to figure out how to participate in the segments of the market that are still reasonably priced and defend and participate on the other side of the recession. >> what about portfolio protection the debt limit negotiations is not the only risk to the market. we continue to have inflation which is high as well as rates what are you saying and doing to protect client portfolios? >> right now, it is a tough time to create protection in the portfolio short of putting on actual options trades. there is enough optimism in the

market to get a bid and protection to the down side if you give up your upside. that is one way to do it the problem we have with most portfolio strategy is the defensive sector is highly priced at this point it is hard to justify buying health care and an utilities. things normally get hit, but with all of the wage growth, we have to think this is not a usual recession. >> gina sanchez, thank you very much also, join gina and other experts and economists at the virtual summit on june 15th to discuss the market risk ahead and potential buying opportunities and tools to generate consistent returns. scan the qr code to register or visit cnbc.com turning to washington. investors holding out hope that

lawmakers will close in on a debt ceiling deal before the x date on june 1st president biden with an optimistic meeting with mccarthy earlier this week. he is currently in hiroshima, japan, meeting with the japanese prime minister we have brie jackson with more >> reporter: president biden viewed the optimistic picture of the debt ceiling talks and expressing confidence of a deal. some are pushing the president to raise the debt ceiling limit without congressional approval president biden in japan focusing on foreign issues with debt ceiling talks back home. >> everyone knows the consequences and it would be catastrophic for the american economy and people.

>> now we're along a short timeline and it makes it harder. >> reporter: he is cutting his overseas trip short, critics blasted the president saying he waited until the last minute to negotiate directly with gop leaders. >> accept the fact we must change how this town spends money. inaction will not wipe away $32 trillion in debt >> reporter: some democrats appear frustrated with negotiations and urged the president to invoke the 14th amendment arguing it would be unconstitutional for the government to not pay its bills. >> i do think it is very, very, very important that the president keep his constitutional option on the table in case negotiations break down >> reporter: experts say doing so could spark a bitter legal fight fight.

for now, both sides appear on co compromise >> i'm hopeful the president's team will join us republicans to produce a responsible spending agreement. >> we will come together because there is no alternative. >> reporter: negotiators have less than two weeks to find a solution or risk a first ever debt default today, vice president harris will provide an update on the debt ceiling and potential impact of the default. frank. >> brie jackson live in d.c. thank you. more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors just have to know today, but first, agauging the a.i. impact and how it is up ending the economy. and we layout the bull and bear case for chinese stocks as alibaba gets set to report its results. s okend later, walmart will op itbos. we have a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the a.i. space and the advancements including the medical and surgical field and the ability to make life or death decisions in real-time we have julia boorstin with the risks. >> reporter: surgeons making life and death decisions are no

longer operating on their own. they have an a.i. safety net this mayo clinic doctor, among some across the country, using what they call the surgical intelligence in the operating room. >> fascinating part is we get the information in real-time >> reporter: it raised over $42 million from the mayo clinic, advises doctors about deck-- techniques and identifies which decisions yield the best outcomes >> we look at this at a scale never been seen and inform surgeons moving forward on the best approach. >> reporter: the doctor says reviewing the surgery videos can sometimes take surgeons months this a.i. helps them instantly

jump to key moments. >> we can predict if i make an i incision here, it can predict a complication or cancer recurrence cri critical >> reporter: a.i. is not just used in the operating room, but emergency responders >> is he unconscious >> i can't get response. >> reporter: a.i. powered ed ci alerts medical professionals to see if a person is having a heart attack it helps nurses and paramedics with suggestions like in any new technology, there are risks. in healthcare, patient confidentiality is a top concern. that has been a focus for companies applying a.i. in the medical space. many doctors see the upside from

a.i. as massive. >> frankly, i think most of the major obstacles are addressed. i think the sky is the limit for where this technology can go >> reporter: this a.i. that is informed by a fixed deata set is so different from the chatgpt that captured the imagine of people and raised concerns frank. >> that was julia boorstin reporting. ahead on "worldwide exchange," our big money movers. sharp move higher forte two and the big short's michael burry on the future of chinese equities we will have the full story when we return. go sensors and software. go find leaks. go fix-em. emerson technology detects compressed air leaks to save manufacturers, like colgate, over 20% in energy costs. go brush your teeth. go boldly. emerson.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." hedge fund manager michael burry is betting big on baidu and alibaba. the latest is jpmorgan chase reduces the gdp target with a loss in recovery momentum. that is the sentiment shared from nomura which is reducing the gdp target it is not just the big banks you heard on cnbc this week, elon musk is watching china and

the tension with the u.s musk telling david faber that issues should be a concern for everyone and then warren buffett selling stake in tsmc despite a fabulous enterprise buffett is concerned about the tension in the region. all this as chinese giant alibaba prepares to report in just over an hour. wild moves on the stock. one indication of the split of the sentiment in the region. let's talk about this with brendan ahern. great to see you brendan >> great to see you, frank. >> what is your view on the china overall economy and chinese equities >> on the basis, chinese economy is coming out oof a trough. china is on the path of recovery it is an incremental recovery driven by domestic consumption different from past rebounds

which have been driven by export manufacturing which is slowing as the global economy slows and it is less infrastructure intens intensive. less building intensive. a different recovery that is why we think it is an incremental recovery >> you mention export focus manufacturing. how is this impacting the chinese economy? >> i think the big headwind for chinese manufacturing is less near shoring, but less in demand 60% chance of recession in the united states and europe that means people will be likely spending less. more of that in terms of near shoring, it is difficult to do. there is an environmental consequence to a lot of the manufacturing that china does. i think there is no appetite for someone to have a rare earth processor in their town.

raise your hand if you like to see that >> i think a lot of towns would decline that option. we talk about -- i can't get the words out today, brendan bellwether stocks. alibaba is one for china it reports in an hour from now with the report, it will tell us something about china and what about the spinoff plans? >> alibaba is an important company because it is geared to the domestic consumption story we see from jd.com that they mention that their q2 merchandise sales is faster than q1 jd is a competitor and looking good baidu on tuesday talked about advertising revenue picking up yesterday, we had tencent. talk about a domestic consumption recovery the bar is increasing for alibaba in terms of being geared

to the domestic consumption story. we are looking at revenue of 209 billion which is about $22 billion u.s. >> you are doing a lot of math it's early we talked about warren buffett pivoting away from china and the 13-f doubling down should the average investor pay attention to the moves by the big-time investors >> berkshire is still a stake holder in byd. very successful position for them they are still heavily involved in china berkshire hathaway is geared to apple which derived 20% of the revenue. it shows diplomats from the u.s. and china side need to get on an airplane and start talking to

one another. we have so much globally to lose if this relationship continues to fray. >> thank you, brendan. we have frances rivera with the latest from new york >> good morning. we start with ron desantis who could become a presidential candidate next week. nbc news reported that desantis is running against the clock he must announce the 2024 plans within two weeks due to disclosure plans most polls show desantis trails trump, but is widely seen as his strongest reival. and george santos' future is in the hands of his colleagues

he pleaded not guilty to wire fraud charges. and preince harry and his wife were on a near catastrophic car chase in new york city they were followed by photographers after a charity event in midtown you have the versions being near catastrophic chase and then police calling it chaos. somewhere is the real deal >> i think a lot of people are pointing to what happened to princess diana a better outcome they got to where they were going safely frances rivera, thank you. building on yesterday's gains of pacwest with the best day since january of 2021. shares up 5.5%

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it is 5:30 a.m. here in new york city. we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. here is what's on deck latest gauge of the health of the consumer walmart coming off concerning signals from other retail giants as worries come up, we help you protect your portfolio and why

our next guest is looking overseas a it is thursday, may 18th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's start with the check on the stock futures. futures are in the green s&p is down and nasdaq is up slightly here. strong start to the morning. we are looking at the bond markets. the 10-year treasury on 3.59 2-year treasury is 4.17. as we told you yesterday, we talked about the deal with russia and ukraine to allow grain to transport across the

black sea. turkey and the kremlin confirming the extension moments ago. let's check on the top stories with pippa stevens >> frank, seven of the world's largest semiconductor makers are laying out plans to increase manufacturing in japan the prime minister of the country meeting with the heads of intel and micron and others that meeting coming ahead of the g7 summit where president biden is expected to counter the semi strategy deutsche bank agreeing to p payspz -- pay $75 million in the

lawsuit over jeffery epstein charles schwab is touurningt the credit market to raise $2.5 billion of debt. the giant is looking to use money from the everything on for general corporate purposes the move coming as schwab's recent turmoil that stock down 2% frank. >> pippa, thank you. turning back to the consumer walmart is reporting in over an h hour walmart may be in a stronger position compared to peers with 60% of sales in the u.s. coming from grocery walmart gave a weaker than expected outlook in february let's talk more about this with oliver chen from td cohen.

>> good morning. >> does this mean we will see a different report from the others in the retail space? >> that is true, frank we have seen a cautious report from target. specifically the discretionary category food and beauty and household at target was better. the mix is 60% of walmart which is a strong positive in terms of stability. that is a section of the business working the other positive for walmart is walmart stands for value and every day low prices the consumer is looking for more value. walmart is getting higher end customers. a lot of innovation with higher degrees of convenience and they

are getting a wealthier customer which doesn't have to enter the store given the revolution in retail >> you talk about the ref volutn in retail. i want to talk about a.i how does that impact walmart and the plan to compete with amazon with marketplace and ecommerce >> you bring up a great point, frank, in terms of the future of retail a.i. really depends on large data sets and personalization. walmart is the u.s. biggest grocer what we do with the shopping habits and move from predictive to prescriptive analytics where walmart knows what you want before you want it through the frequency of grocery shopping is exciting for a.i. and the future of retail is

bricks, clicks and portals of the y-- portals this is a real physical retail year with the reopening. a.i. holds promise the bottom line is personalization and shopping experience making it easier as well as robotics and supply chain. that is a big deal advertising is a big deal in terms of taking dollars away from digital platforms. >> a lot of deals for walmart. i'll ask ahead of the report what is your rating? >> we are excited. 180 price target 5% comp. it is our pick ahead of target in how we are thinking of what we prefer. we rate both out perform walmart is a very prominent grocer with what we180 price

target thank you. coming up, the mining industry facing a wave of m&a activity it could face more with white gold search. and the big money movers shares falling after it increased profits for the year with cisco on its revenue forecast orders did decline year over year the cfo said orders fell shares of cisco down 4%. and take-two interactive with the fiscal outlook the rising prices for consumer staples led gamers to be prudent and what it spends on titles and games. shares of take-two 10% higher.

and sony says it is considering r re re-listing the financial services arm it will reverse the decision it made years ago to consolidate the business in the entertainment group. shares of sony up 6% "worldwide exchange" is back in just a moment. - double check that. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org.

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roth mkm upgrading on snap-on the fifrm says it has confidenc in the business model. shares up over .50%. another upgrade on ubs on albemarle from kneutral to buy raising guidance to $255 a share. that stock up more than 1.5% this morning ubs is not alone with lithium mining sitting on cash from the surge in commodity prices. pippa stevens is here with more. >> frank, last week, lithium companies announced merger and it will become the third large

evilarges deal this is not easy with challenges of permitting and long lead times to get new mines online. chris barry said he believes we will see more consolidation in the industry for a few reasons companies are looking for geographic diversity given lithium demand, companies are focused on high grade and long life mines. security of supply is the number one worry in the industry today. in addition to that deal, giant albemarle had three unsuccessful bids this year it is the world's largest lithium producer we have some smaller players in various stages of production that includes lithium america and piedmont >> pippa, let's talk more about

the potential for more activity in the lithium sector with cole mcgill cole, good morning >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> lay it out for us pippa spelled out the cash these companies have in the bank right now. is that setting up for a super cycle of m &a >> yes what we have seen in china with spot pricing and pricing week over week since december of last year and that negative rate of change plateaued and then we have seen chile now introduce prices of state ownership of projects. remember, chile produced 33% of lithium last year. an important player in the lithium space. and this is what is interesting

and piquing our interest back six years ago, everyone thought this was a flash in the pan industry albemarle generated 3 billion in ebita. the size of the lithium companies are warranting purchase if you look at the space, there are two avenues i see moving this year. the first is as you mentioned. alb and sqm. they buy on the door step of new supply chain build outs. also major deversified miners.et

deals this week and cole mentioned these companies are sitting on a lot of cash and urgency for metals vital to the energy transition. while the newmont and newcrest deal, it gave access to copper we are seeing a lot of pushing behind things like copper and lithium and nickel and graphite and metals essential for battery production that is one area of focus where now companies are sitting on higher cash and looking for higher deals to diversify >> cole, you were saying the same story we had a guest on a few days ago talking about a super cycle for commodities. including platinum >> not as well on the platinum

side the way you think about it is these metals are critical to the ev revolution. there is a saying in the industry of those who have the rock win p i would see the cost pressure with those >> anything else we need to look with m&a the emergence of ev is a factor. any other factor with the increase of the rise in the commodity prices >> i think you will see a bit of a bifurcation with the commodities prices what we are seeing now with respect to the rise of china controlling the ev processing and supply chains is most lithium needs to go through china before it goes through the ev before it rolls on the road in the u.s those are things now trying to

virtually integrate. you see the $6 million equity investment these are new sources of capital they did not have previously >> pippa, you are nodding when he said that. >> i was following up on that, cole oems with partners with miners is there one step further to acquire the assets moving forward? >> 100%. that is the natural way this goes when you think about it, this is history repeating itself ford did this with rubber plants in brazil 100 years ago. this is not new. you obviously heard of tesla being in the news with respect to potentially acquiring

tesla announced a lithium refinery in texas. they need feed to go into that it would naturally make sense for a company like that to take on a mine. >> cole mcgill, thank you. thank you, pippa coming up on "worldwide exchange," what you need to know today and driving the market action if you haven't already, follow our podcast on apparenapple, spo other apps and cnbc is celebrating aapi heritage month >> i want to talk about career advice i received early in my career that spoke to me as an asian american in the work force. it centered around two things. the first was finding the activities that you're good at

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welcome back time for the "wex wrap-up. amazon will boost investment to $16 billion in india chinese chip maker receiving approval from the shanghai stock exchange for a $2 billion listing. the second biggest offering in sector on record. netflix has five million

monthly users since it launched six months ago with the ad-supported tier. and p monmontana is the firt state to ban tiktok. the first state to pass legislation against the platform. and shari redstone buying up $2.5 million of shares this week as paramount hovering near a 52-week low. and president biden is visiting asia to look to tie up allies and sitting down with the japanese prime minister. we have economic numbers and jobless claims this morning and home sales figures with alibaba

and ross stores reporting. there will be a senate banking committee hearing on oversight of financial regulations speaking of the fed, we hear from philip jefferson and an lorie logan this morning our next guest says the fed speeches are a catalyst. greg sarian is joining us now. good morning >> good morning, frank thank you for having me back. >> with everything we laid out, how are you seeing today what is your "wex word of the day? >>you need to be calculating because we are in a pivotal time in markets with what the fed will do next in the june meeting and what it moons going forward with policy. i think there is a huge casm of

not defaulting >> let's dig deeper in that. the debt ceiling is one of many things investors have on the wall of worry. how do you protect client portfolios >> great question. we believe the market may be opt m -- optimistic the last several days over what it means to not default. in these negotiations, the devil is in the details. there is a wide gap with not defaulting and the president not being back until sunday and coming up with a deal with detailed spending and entitlement decisions. that volatility could be significant for markets. we do believe that a deal will be done. to be clear, there will be no default. that being said, what do decisions look like? i think the markets may have

overanticipated a clear decision at this point. >> i want to go back to the portfolio protection ideas one thing we talk about is private credit give audience a sense of how you can invest in private credit and why it is important. >> everyone is aware of the challenges the regional banks have faced and continue to face. we are in a tighter credit environment in a higher interest rate environment over the last year, you see a number of direct lenders and non-banks taking the space in making loans to companies that are solid, but not have perfect balance sheets that jpmorgan chase and bank of america would not necessarily make good loans to there is a tremendous opportunity in high quality loans that pay significant income extremes. we have been doing this with

firms and it is a way to invest in the higher call the ty companies and generating -- higher quality companies and generating the portfolio >> i want to go to the fed a lot of people are expecting a pause at the next meeting. how does that shape your investment theory? >> great question, frank it is important to understand that we are all of the same mind the fed should be done the ripple effect and an slow d in housing and what we see in the reports is evident it is our view the fed will pause in june and/or july. it will pause to the first cut has been good for stocks we are preparing our clients for the pivot. the pivot with the debt ceiling resolved and the fed had a meeting and said we're done for

now. that represents an opportunity for stocks to grow. >> a fed pivot or pivot on the economy and markets? >> it is important to separate the stock market from the economy. i'm saying when the fed announces a pause, we hope that's in june, that several months between when they pause and when they start to cut has traditionally been favorable that is a pivot for the stock market several months after is favorable. >> what sector sees the biggest upside >> frank, we like international markets. we do believe the dollar peaked at the end of last year from the valuation perspective. we think those are compelling markets comipared to our own we think it is appropriate most people are underweight international because of the dominance of the markets we think the next five could be better than the last ten

>> greg sarian, thank you very much before we let you go, a last look at futures. looking green across the board dow up nasdaq and s&p pretty much neck and neck that's going to do it here on "worldwide ehae.xcng "squawk box" is coming up next thank you for watching ef .com .com can see may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. and submit the application. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far.

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good morning futures with little change this morning, but it is a pretty color. everything is green. no red on the screen except for the fair value. we are up across all three indices. quarterly results from walmart and closely watched jobless claims debt ceiling optimism at

this point president biden echoing some espe upbeat comments. a.i. shaking up industries at a rapid pace. we will look at the new uses in the medical field. it is thursday, may 18th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. futures are indicated higher dow is up 36 s&p up 7 nasdaq up 25 this comes after a day of significant gains for all of the major averages